Refineries, airports hit in Saudi-Houthi crossfire

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Trump adds normalization condition to Saudi nuclear deal

Good morning, friends. The escalation we've been tracking took its most serious turn yet over the weekend. The Houthis say they hit Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery with missiles and drones on Saturday, moving a five-day campaign off the shipping lane and onto the oil itself. And for the first time in years, it's going both ways. Saudi-led coalition forces struck Houthi military sites in Hodeidah on Friday, and the internationally recognized Yemeni government's air force also went on the offensive in Marib and Al Jawf.

Beneath the smoke, the capital machine keeps running. PIF signed USD 24.5 bn in MoUs with the World Bank's private-sector arms and the US EXIM bank to pull outside capital into its portfolio companies. Aramco, meanwhile, is pushing ahead on its USD 100 bn Jafurah gas play, with contractors already bidding phase five while phase four's engineering work has barely started.

AND- Regional M&A is still bleeding — down 47% y-o-y to USD 48.7 bn in 1H — though the deal count barely moved, which tells you the deals just got smaller.

BUT FIRST- Just one day after the US and Saudi Arabia signed a civil nuclear cooperation agreement, US President Donald Trump bolted on a condition that could unravel it. The agreement, Trump said, “will be approved, but is totally subject to Saudi Arabia joining the very respected and successful Abraham Accords,” and that there would be “no enrichment” of nuclear material. Press Secretary Karoline Leavitt confirmed the normalization demand is now a requirement: “If they don't join the Abraham Accords, the deal is off.”

This isn’t the first time the US has tried to use business (and this agreement in particular) to push Riyadh to normalize ties with Tel Aviv. It also wouldn’t be the first time Riyadh hasn’t played ball. Under the Biden administration, Saudi Arabia maintained its refusal to recognize Israel and establish diplomatic relations with the country without an “irreversible and time-bound path” to the creation of a Palestinian state, which the Netanyahu government has ruled out, all the more so amid the Gaza war.

Israel is reacting selectively: Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s office publicly welcomed the potential normalization as “an historic leap forward” while his political rivals have been vocal about their qualms with the deal. Naftali Bennett, who is looking to return as Israel’s prime minister in elections later this year, called it “a serious strategic failure that endangers our security.” Former defense minister Avigdor Lieberman also warned the agreement would end with Saudi Arabia developing a nuclear weapon, urging Tel Aviv to lobby the US Congress to kill it.

What’s next: Washington is in an active war to dismantle Iran’s nuclear program while greenlighting a Saudi one, feeding arms-race fears. The pact heads to Congress, which would need a veto-proof majority to block it.

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Warner Bros. deal clears EU hurdle

Paramount’s PIF-backed USD 110 bn Warner Bros. Discovery buyout cleared Brussels this week, but it’s clearing regulators faster than it’s clearing courts. The European Commission signed off on the acquisition, conditional on Paramount ending its European distribution tie-up with Universal within 13 months of closing, the Commission said. It’s the latest of some 65 jurisdictions to clear or decline to challenge the merger, Bloomberg reports.

A US federal judge paused the Gulf-backed tie-up on a “strong showing” it hurts competition, after 12 states sued to block it. The deal is bankrolled by the PIF and the Qatar Investment Authority through L'imad Holding.

What’s next: A US hearing on 3 August decides whether the pause holds until trial. Every day past September the transaction doesn’t close costs Paramount ticking fees owed to WBD shareholders — and a courtroom loss could trigger a USD 7 bn termination fee, on top of the USD 2.8 bn it already paid Netflix to walk away.

Joint bid for KAFD cooling?

I Squared Capital and Saudi Tabreed reportedly submitted a joint bid for the district cooling assets at King Abdullah Financial District (KAFD), three sources familiar with the matter told Reuters. The two started as competing bidders before merging their offers. Saudi Tabreed is the existing operator of KAFD’s cooling network and is part-owned by PIF, Abu Dhabi’s National Central Cooling Company, and UAE-listed Tabreed.

REMEMBER- KAFD was in advanced discussions to sell the assets — which deliver chilled water to cool offices, industrial, and residential buildings — for USD 500 mn, with both Saudi Tabreed and UAE Tabreed showing interest in the transaction. The joint bid follows I Squared’s USD 2 bn co-investment agreement with PIF earlier this month, targeting up to USD 1 bn each in digital infrastructure and district cooling. KAFD’s cooling assets fit that bill.

What’s next? KAFD’s board is evaluating the bids, two sources told the newswire.

Pump it out

OPEC+ will likely wave through another output-target hike from September when it meets on 2 August, three sources told Reuters, expecting the same roughly 188k bbl / d bump as June, July, and August. The seven core producers, including Saudi Arabia, Iraq, and Russia, are racing to reclaim market share for when the Iran war ends.

The catch: The cartel can’t actually pump out the quotas they set. Group output sank to 36.28 mn bbl / d in June, down from nearly 43 mn bbl / d pre-war, with Hormuz throttled and Houthis now hitting Saudi tankers.

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The big story abroad

A handful of headlines are capturing the attention of the foreign pages this morning — those include:

After 13 straight nights of heavy bombardment, Washington halted airstrikes over Iran over the weekend without any official explanation. While US President Donald Trump indicated that a “massive attack” on the Islamic Republic remains under consideration, the pause may stem from concerns that the conflict is depleting Washington’s stockpile of air defense weapons and anti-missile interceptors. Iranian state media did not report any strikes over the weekend.

Investors are wagering on a Federal Reserve rate hike as soon as this Wednesday, amid a spike in oil prices following the recent regional geopolitical escalations. Markets are now placing a 38% probability of a quarter point hike, up from 13% last week, according to CME Group data.

Also in the region: Private equity giants Blackstone, KKR, and Brookfield agreed to buy a USD 16 bn stake in Kuwait’s national oil pipelines network, securing a 49% stake in a JV alongside the Kuwait Petroleum Company. The companies will lease and rent back the country’s 320 km pipeline infrastructure. The transaction marks Kuwait’s largest foreign direct investment ticket.

Fed up with costs, companies thrift AI models: US Firms are embracing lower-priced AI models, including China-made software, in addition to OpenAI and Anthropic’s offerings. Businesses are realizing that expensive models being touted as the most powerful are not appropriate for mundane tasks, resulting in a pivot to a so-called “tokenomical” mindset.

Wildfires in France and Spain have prompted the evacuation of some 260k people. Drought conditions and extreme heat have exacerbated out-of-control forest fires this summer. In France alone, just under 98k hectares have been burned, marking a new record.

Destination Sahel is back for a second edition — and this year, it's not just about the beach.

Gulf sovereign wealth funds are pouring billions into the North Coast, Gulf buyers keep showing up despite regional headwinds, and a new 400km master plan could reshape the whole coastline before summer’s out.

Over this season’s series, stay tuned to see who's really buying Sahel, where the money's coming from, and what could still go wrong.

Plus, the hotels, restaurants, and openings worth checking out this summer.

Tap or click here to subscribe to the Egypt edition, coming out in your inbox, Wednesday, July 29.

Refineries, airports caught in Saudi-Houthi crossfire

Fires burned at Saudi Aramco's Jazan refinery on Saturday after a missile-and-drone attack the Houthis claimed as retaliation for Saudi airstrikes on Yemen, moving a five-day campaign against the Kingdom from the shipping lane to the oil itself. NASA satellite fire-detection imagery showed thermal hotspots at the Red Sea refinery and regional media reported at least five explosions in Jazan, Türkiye Today reported.

Nothing official on the damage yet: Civil Defense warned residents of Yanbu governorate and Jazan province of “a potential danger” before lifting the alert. Saudi officials said Yanbu was no longer at risk and reported no damage. Meanwhile, the Houthis' military said it had struck facilities in both Jazan and Yanbu.

The fighting is now moving in both directions for the first time in years. Over the weekend, Saudi-led coalition forces hit Houthi military sites in the western port city of Hodeidah on Friday in what spokesman Turki Al Malki called a “proportionate military response” to the attacks on Saudi-linked shipping, adding that Hodeidah port was not targeted and that Yemeni ports remain open to commercial traffic.. A Yemeni security source told AFP the targets included a naval base in Hodeidah and a camp on Kamaran Island. The internationally recognized Yemeni government's air force also struck Houthi launch sites and arms depots in Marib and al-Jawf, among its first offensive operations against the group in the current flare-up, Arab News reported.

Why it matters:

Yanbu may be the only export route the Kingdom has left. With the Strait of Hormuz throttled since the US-Iran war began in February, Saudi rerouted crude across the country through the East-West pipeline to the Red Sea. Yanbu handled about 4 mn bpd in June, up from roughly 973k bpd a year earlier, and accounted for 92% of seaborne crude exports in June and 78% so far in July, per Kpler data. A strike that reaches loading infrastructure at Yanbu, rather than the tankers leaving it, would hit exports at the source.

REMEMBER- The Houthis declared a naval blockade of Saudi Arabia on 20 July, telling shipping companies by email that vessels loading or discharging at Saudi ports could be targeted “in any location within the operational reach of the Yemeni Armed Forces,” according to Reuters. The group framed it as an “eye for an eye” response to Saudi strikes on Yemeni ports and Sanaa airport. Days later it claimed missile-and-drone strikes on two Saudi-flagged tankers, the Encelia and the Layla. Riyadh confirmed only the Encelia, a refined-products carrier hit in the southern Red Sea. On Friday the Saudi-owned NCC MASA was struck in transit and took minor hull damage before continuing, state news agency SPA said, without naming a party.

The tighter constraint is commercial. Leading marine war ins. Players at Lloyd's of London told brokers on Friday they would not write war-cargo cover for vessels with any “Saudi touchpoints,” including ships under other flags that have called at Saudi ports, and underwriters Ascot and Navium signaled they were preparing to cancel existing policies on some Saudi-linked tonnage, the Financial Times reported. Marsh broker Marcus Baker said Saudi Arabia risked “moving into the same bracket” as Israel, the US and the UK, whose Red Sea cargoes already carry a war-risk premium.

China is the variable that decides how much crude actually moves. Chinese buyers have kept lifting Yanbu crude at about 520k bpd this year, and two Chinese-owned tankers cleared Bab Al Mandeb on Thursday broadcasting “China crew & owner,” the first cargoes of Saudi crude to exit the Red Sea unimpeded since the blockade, Bloomberg reported. Still, the Hong Kong-flagged New Champion, chartered by a Chinese buyer to load at Yanbu, idled in the Gulf of Aden and then U-turned on Friday, the first Chinese-linked vessel to back away. Both ships that got through had loaded before the blockade, Windward maritime analyst Michelle Bockmann told Al Jazeera, and the open question now is whether Chinese-owned tankers loading at Yanbu are allowed to pass.

The alternative is slow and expensive. Ships avoiding the southern exit are routing through the Suez Canal and around Africa, weeks longer: a Japan-bound cargo of cooking fuel that left Yanbu on Friday pushed its arrival from early August to late September. A partial workaround runs north from Yanbu into Egypt's Sumed pipeline, which can carry about 2.5 mn bpd to the Mediterranean, though it cannot absorb the full Yanbu flow.

Prices have carried the risk premium. Brent broke USD 100 a barrel on Thursday for the first time since May as the tanker strikes landed, then eased to about USD 96 on Friday on reports that Pakistan is exploring renewed US-Iran talks with Chinese backing. Crude is up roughly 30% over July.

What's next?

Three things will show whether this is a price scare or a genuine supply break. Watch whether war-risk cover reopens for Saudi voyages, which Baker said depends on when the Houthis stop threatening. Watch whether Chinese tankers keep loading at Yanbu or follow the New Champion out. And watch the Pakistan track: a credible US-Iran opening is the fastest way to ease both chokepoints at once. A strike that shuts loading at Yanbu, rather than the tankers leaving it, is the escalation that would move the export number — not just the oil price.

PIF taps IFC, MIGA, and US EXIM for USD 24.5 bn in co-financing and guarantee frameworks

Building a broader funding base: The Public Investment Fund signed three MoUs worth a combined USD 24.5 bn with the World Bank Group’s private-sector arms and the US Export-Import Bank (EXIM) to draw outside capital into its portfolio companies and expand its funding sources, it said in two separate statements.

Co-financing and guarantees from the World Bank: A USD 6 bn MoU with the International Finance Corporation covers co-financing across infrastructure, energy, transportation, tourism, and health care,with a channel for encouraging private capital into PIF portfolio company projects. A separate USD 3.5 bn MoU with the Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency provides credit-enhancement guarantees to backstop portfolio company financing across MENA, weighted toward decarbonization and new industries.

Buy American, Saudi-financed: The USD 15 bn EXIM framework is narrower in purpose, establishing a long-term financing framework for PIF portfolio companies to buy US goods and services, across advanced tech, aerospace, infrastructure, future mobility, water security, and critical minerals.

The direction is consistent: PIF is widening the channels through which it can co-invest and borrow rather than funding portfolio companies off its own balance sheet. Since the release of its 2026-2030 plan, it has been pursuing co-investment via a USD 2 bn I Squared infrastructure partnership, AviLease is planning to raise its own debt, Newcastle United is shopping for stadium investors, LIV Golf financing is winding down, and several football clubs are getting put up for sale. The three new multilateral frameworks fit the same pattern and they come as two blocked straits and a widening deficit leave less room to write checks directly.

Volumes and prices lift East Pipes as shipping disruptions raise costs

Volumes and prices lift East Pipes: East Pipes Integrated Company for Industry reported a 36.2% y-o-y increase in net income to SAR 122.9 mn in 1Q FY 2026-27, according to a Tadawul disclosure. Revenue rose by 35.2% y-o-y to SAR 520.7 mn during the same period, as higher sales volumes and firmer average selling prices per ton carried both the top and bottom lines.

Import shipping is the pressure point. The war has pushed the company to reroute raw-material shipments away from the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab to the ports of Jeddah and Yanbu, adding transit time — some vessels waiting up to four weeks to berth — and lifting shipping costs by an estimated 15-20%, Acting CEO Mohamed Darweesh told Al Arabiya (watch, runtime: 8:16). Customer contracts allow East Pipes to recover some of that under set conditions.

What’s next? East Pipes exports none of its production for now, with activity built around strong domestic demand from gas and water projects. But Darweesh said the company is assessing export channels and may allocate part of its capacity to foreign markets, scaling output gradually. It also plans to keep working on strategic projects, including gas-pipeline rehabilitation and maintenance and the East-West pipeline.

Aramco queues up Jafurah phase five

Aramco accelerates Jafurah rollout: Contractors have bid for the fifth expansion phase of the USD 100 bn unconventional Jafurah gas field, even as the engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) work for the fourth phase has just begun recently, Meed reported. The phase covers EPC of three gas compression plants, each with a processing capacity of up to 200 mn cf / d, at the Jafurah basin in the Eastern Province.

REMEMBER- Spanning around 17k sq km, the Jafurah basin is the largest liquids rich shale gas play in the MENA region, with estimated reserves of 229 tn cubic feet of raw gas, and 75 bn stock tank barrels of condensate.

SBG kicks off work on King Fahd Sports City Stadium

Saudi Binladin Group began redeveloping the King Fahd Sports City Stadium to prepare for hosting the 2034 FIFA World Cup, according to a LinkedIn announcement. The project will modernize the stadium to FIFA standards, increasing capacity to around 70.2k seats while upgrading infrastructure and facilities.

REMEMBER- The government controls over 92% of SBG’s parent company Binladin International Holding Group (BIHG), as the Kingdom counts on this ownership to successfully deliver national construction projects related to Expo 2030 and the 2034 World Cup. The company previously obtained a SAR 2 bn loan in April 2025 to develop King Fahd Sports City.

Zain’s 5G+ is online

Zain KSA became Saudi Arabia’s first telecom operator to commercially launch 5G+, according to a press release. The initial deployment covers Riyadh and Jeddah and uses the 600 MHz spectrum alongside other frequency bands to strengthen coverage, particularly indoors and in areas requiring wider signal reach.

The regional M&A slowdown is moderating somewhat

The bleeding in regional M&A has slowed, but it hasn't stopped. Regional M&A volumes fell 47% y-o-y to USD 48.7 bn in 1H, Zawya reports citing LSEG data — a steep drop, but a lighter one than 1Q's. Transaction count held far steadier, down just 2% y-o-y to 642, which means the average deal got a lot smaller: roughly USD 76 mn this year, versus an implied USD 140 mn in 1H 2025.

Why it matters: A 47% value decline against a nearly flat deal count is a market that hasn't frozen up, just gotten more cautious about size and risk. For dealmakers, that argues for structuring around smaller, more contained bets rather than waiting out the volatility for larger ones.

Outbound outpaces inbound: Deals targeting regional M&A windows came in at a two-year low for 1H figures, dropping 56% y-o-y against a backdrop of persistent regional instability. MENA-based investors struck a more confident note, recording USD 25 bn in outbound activity. However, that’s still down 38% y-o-y.

The UAE dominated the regional map. It was the most in-demand market in the region by a wide margin, with USD 16.5 bn in M&A activity, ahead of Saudi Arabia (USD 2.9 bn) and Morocco (USD 1 bn).

The materials, industrials, tech, and financial services led the charge. The largest agreement came from UAE-based critical and rare metals platform Miotal’s USD 10 bn merger with Fifth Era Acquisition Corp I SPAC vehicle, as securing critical materials for AI activity becomes increasingly important.

The gloomy results are still better than 1Q’s depressing recordings, when MENA M&A activity fell 74% y-o-y in value terms after the regional war dampened market sentiment. Similarly, it was inbound M&A that took the largest hit, falling 90% on a yearly basis. Once again, Emirati players were behind some of the biggest moves, with the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority’s (Adia) sale of its Pension Ins. Corporation Group stake topping the charts.

Looking further ahead, global M&A volumes, however, are expected to rise to USD 3.8 tn in 2026, after hitting a record USD 2.8 tn in 1H this year on the back of megadeals, with 47 transactions accounting for nearly half of the total global agreement value.

A rival count tells a different story

PwC's own mid-year tally (pdf), also out this week, counts just 272 M&A transactions across the Middle East in 1H 2026, down roughly 8% y-o-y — a fraction of the 642 LSEG reports for the same period. The discrepancy boils down to scope: PwC's “Middle East” doesn't appear to include Morocco (which LSEG's MENA data does, at USD 1 bn of 1H activity), and its list of the five largest regional transactions doesn't include the USD 10 bn Miotal/Fifth Era Acquisition Corp I merger that anchors the LSEG data — meaning PwC may be excluding SPAC mergers from its M&A count.

What PwC adds that's worth knowing on its own terms: PwC's own deal-size breakdown backs up the “smaller deals” pattern from a second angle: corporate buyers, not private equity, drove most of the activity (167 transactions to PE's roughly 105), and financial-services dealmaking fell from 75 transactions in mid-2025 to 53.

TASI	10,804	+0.3% (YTD: +3.0%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,450	+0.1% (YTD: +4.5%)
NomuC	22,073	+0.2% (YTD: -5.3%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	4.25% repo	3.75% reverse repo
EGX30	53,932	-0.1% (YTD: +28.9%)
ADX	9,828	-0.1% (YTD: -1.7%)
DFM	5,787	-0.2% (YTD: -4.3%)
S&P 500	7,412	+0.1% (YTD: +8.3%)
FTSE 100	10,736	+0.9% (YTD: +8.1%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,281	+1.1% (YTD: +8.4%)
Brent crude	USD 96.78	-3.9%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.87	-1.5%
Gold	USD 4,071	+0.5%
BTC	USD 64,356	+0.4% (YTD: -26.5%)
Sukuk/bond market index	904.49	-0.1% (YTD: -1.6%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	150.20	+0.2% (YTD: -1.1%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	18.58	-0.6% (YTD: +24.3%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI rose 0.3% on Thursday on turnover of SAR 4.0 bn. The index is up 3.0% YTD.

In the green: Electrical Industries (+9.9%), National Medical Care (+5.5%), and Ataa Educational (+5.4%).

In the red: Raoom Trading (-4.4%), Dar Alarkan (-3.3%), and Jamjoom Pharma Factory (-2.9%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC rose 0.2% on Thursday on turnover of SAR 5.4 mn. The index is down 5.3% YTD.

In the green: Al Razi Medical (+9.8%), Osool and Bakheet Investment (+9.1%), and MSGA Investment (+9.0%).

In the red: Rimath Hospitality (-9.0%), Arabica Star (-8.5%), and WSM for Information Technology (-8.0%).

CALENDAR

AUGUST

30 August-1 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Saudi Paper and Packaging Expo, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

31 August-3 September (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center - Malham.

SEPTEMBER

8-10 September (Tuesday-Thursday): The WTM Spotlight Riyadh, Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center (RFECC), Riyadh.

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

28 September-1 October (Monday-Thursday): The International Conference on Theory and Practice of Electronic Governance (ICEGOV), Prince Sultan University, Riyadh.

OCTOBER

25-26 October (Sunday-Monday): The Global Proptech Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): ACHEMA Middle East, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): The Future Investment Initiative, King Abdulaziz International Conference Center, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

30 October-1 November (Friday-Sunday): The New Global Sport Conference, Sofitel Hotel & Convention Centre, Riyadh.

NOVEMBER

11-12 November (Wednesday-Thursday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

16-19 November (Monday-Thursday): Cityscape Global, Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre (Malham), Riyadh.

29 November-1 December (Sunday-Tuesday): The UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2H: Sabic’s USD 6.4 bn Fujian project in China to start production;
November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh;
The World Economic Forum’s Global Collaboration and Growth Meeting, Jeddah;

2027

FEBRUARY

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): Energy Regulators Regional Association annual conference, Riyadh.

MARCH

21-25 March (Sunday-Thursday):The World Water Forum, Riyadh.

22–24 March (Monday-Wednesday): Capital Markets Forum, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh

APRIL

26-29 April (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

JUNE

1-3 June (Tuesday-Thursday): The Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed;
Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun takes place in Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

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