Push on Bab Al Mandab looms

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Aramco’s export route repairs are 80% complete

Good morning, friends. We’re starting the week with signs that the war may shift into higher gear, with Saudi Arabia making plans to retake its Red Sea shipping route by force.

The operation is possibly weeks away, and could involve Yemeni forces on the ground and Saudi jets overhead. We walk through the options, who’s lending support and how, and the Iran-backed off-ramp the Makkah pact members will weigh in Riyadh this week.

In the banking world, the picture is steadier. Saudi bank lending kept growing in August, led by an 18.4% jump in public-sector credit, even as foreign assets slipped and the money supply softened.

AND- For the longer view, we sat down with Tech Mahindra’s regional head to discuss where Saudi AI spending is actually paying off and why data readiness, talent, and governance are the emerging bottlenecks.

Delighted to welcome Mirna Arif as a guest speaker at the 2026 EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum.

Mirna Arif is an accomplished business leader with over two decades of cross-sector experience across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. She currently serves as General Manager for Microsoft's Middle East and Africa Growth Markets, overseeing operations across Egypt and other emerging markets, with a focus on digital transformation and inclusive economic growth.

In January 2026, Mirna was appointed by H.E. President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi as a Member of the Egyptian Parliament (House of Representatives), a testament to her dedication to public service and her commitment to shaping Egypt's future through policy, technology, and inclusive development.

She was previously General Manager of Microsoft Egypt, the first woman to hold the role, and has held senior leadership positions at Microsoft Dubai, GE Oil & Gas, and Schlumberger. She was named among Forbes Middle East's 100 Most Powerful Businesswomen in both 2024 and 2025, and serves on the boards of Banque Misr and the Egyptian National Council for Women.

Registration is now closed. Thank you to everyone who registered. We look forward to welcoming you on Monday, 5 October.

Happening today

Opec+ decides its November output today and is expected to hold targets flat for a second straight month.

Almost to full tilt

Aramco is running its main cross-country oil pipeline above 80% capacity. Flows through the East-West pipeline are close to 6 mn bbl / d of the 7 mn bbl / d it can carry, Bloomberg reports, citing a source familiar with the matter. Once refineries on the west coast take their cut, that leaves 4.5 mn bbl / d to export from the Red Sea.

It’s a sharp turn within a week. The East-West line was running at roughly half capacity days ago, the source said, while Aramco was aiming for 4 mn bbl / d when the pipeline restarted on 22 September, with a full return penciled in at six to eight weeks. Attacks knocked out three of its 11 pumping stations on 11 September, prompting the producer to shut it down completely as a precaution.

REMEMBER- The Kingdom is working both routes at once. Yanbu loadings are back, and Saudi Arabia leaned hard on Hormuz while the pipeline was down, shuttling crude out by supertanker and ship-to-ship transfer off Oman. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs reckon that combination has Middle East exports climbing back toward pre-war levels, and the extra barrels helped drag Brent below USD 100 last week.

ALSO- Aramco is charging more for cooking gas this month. The oil giant raised its October official selling prices for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) by 9-11% on the back of higher oil prices and increased demand, Reuters reports, citing traders. Propane is now USD 680 per ton (+USD 55), while butane costs USD 730 per ton (+USD 70). Aramco’s monthly LPG prices are widely used as a benchmark for Middle East LPG exports to the Asia-Pacific market.

Duqm calling

One of Aramco’s mystery export routes may have a destination: Duqm. Days after Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said the company is studying a fourth and fifth way out of the Gulf without saying where they’d run, TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne says the Kingdom has “begun to work” on a crude pipeline to Duqm on Oman’s Indian Ocean coast, AGBI reports.

The appeal is geography: A line to Oman’s coast would put Saudi crude straight onto the Indian Ocean, closer to Asian buyers and clear of both Hormuz and the Red Sea. The route would run roughly 1k km and cost up to USD 7 bn, still at feasibility stage, vice president of upstream research at Rystad Energy Rahul Choudhary told the news outlet. One candidate endpoint is Ras Markaz, about 650-700 km from Iran.

Five ticks of wiggle room

Tadawul’s new market order rules take effect today. Market orders on the main market and on the parallel market Nomu can now execute across multiple price levels, up to five ticks from the best price, rather than only at the best price, according to a Tadawul announcement. Derivatives are excluded.

How it works: A market order used to fill at a single price, with any remainder converted into a limit order. Under the new mechanism (pdf), the order can continue executing at subsequent price levels within a five-tick range. Once that boundary is reached, or if liquidity runs out before then, any remaining quantity becomes a limit order at the last executed price. Market orders retain their highest execution priority.

What it means for investors: More of an order could be filled immediately by tapping liquidity at several price levels, rather than waiting for additional buyers or sellers at the best price. The trade-off is that investors may buy at higher prices or sell at lower ones within the permitted range. A tick refers to the minimum price increment of a stock, not a 5% price band, and full execution of the order is still not ensured.

REMEMBER- Trading value on Tadawul fell 10.4% y-o-y to SAR 616.6 bn in 1H 2026, while the number of trades declined 11.8%. The new mechanism gives market orders greater access to existing liquidity, although it does not itself add liquidity to the market.

Paramount takeover gets a timeline + financing plan

Paramount has locked in the debt for its PIF-backed takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery, and the acquisition finally has a closing date: 6 October. The company priced roughly USD 52 bn in bonds and loans last week, according to a statement. That came hours after a federal judge approved its settlement with 12 US states and lifted the order that had blocked the merger since July. Only customary closing conditions remain.

Investors piled in: The USD 30 bn investment-grade portion drew more than USD 109 bn in orders, 3.6x its planned size, Bloomberg reports. It is split across eight tranches maturing between 2028 and 2066, with coupons ranging from 6.30% to 8.90%. The demand let Paramount trim the bond from USD 32 bn, shift USD 2 bn into its term loan, and tighten pricing. The 2066 tranche landed at 3.3 percentage points over Treasuries, about 35 bps inside initial talk. The package also includes USD 11.4 bn and EUR 885 mn in high-yield second-lien notes, plus a USD 8.5 bn and EUR 850 mn term loan.

The Gulf's piece: PIF, L'imad, and QIA are putting up c. USD 24 bn in equity alongside the debt, as we reported. After closing, PIF will hold 15.1% of Paramount's non-voting equity, followed by L'imad’s 12.8%, according to the company's FCC filing.

The delay has been costly: Paramount had been facing USD 7 mn in daily delay payments starting 30 September. The issuances were initially set to be sold in the middle of the year but were delayed by the two litigation settlements.

ADVISORS- The offering was led by Citigroup, Apollo Global Management, and Bank of America Corp.

Watani levels up

Watani Iron Steel will list its shares on Tadawul’s main market on Tuesday, 6 October, having gained approval to transfer its shares from Nomu, according to a statement from the exchange. The company — which specializes in billet and rebar manufacturing alongside scrap cutting — will trade under the symbol 1325 in the materials sector, with a daily price fluctuation limit of 10%.

A bumpy ride to graduation: The Saudi Exchange denied the company’s transfer request in 2024, citing the firm’s failure to meet the necessary listing requirements. The company’s board of directors gave the go ahead for the transfer in 2023, and Watani Iron Steel submitted its request in May 2024.

Grand Mosque isn’t in danger

Saudi authorities are denying reports of a suicide bomber at Makkah’s Grand Mosque. Public security said that a man was arrested for harassing passersby and causing panic, but that there was no bombing attempt.

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The Gulf’s sovereign funds and largest companies are committing billions to AI infrastructure at home and to AI companies in the US and beyond. EnterpriseAM AI + Innovation reports on where that capital goes, who controls it and what it is actually buying. Every Tuesday and Thursday, we also cover the startups and established firms across MENA putting AI to work, and how it is changing jobs, education and the way business runs. It’s sharp, analytical and skeptical journalism that ignores hype and is laser-focused on informing our readers, not pleasing our sources. The newsletter launches Monday, 5 October, at the EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum's AI edition. Sign up here to be among the first to get it straight to your inbox.

The big story abroad

The White House has created a task force to assess the risks and prospects of AI technology and recommend what role the federal government should play in overseeing it. Known as the Super Intelligence Force, the new entity will be led by Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton, possibly signaling the Trump administration’s intent to heighten AI oversight.

G7 countries agreed to release 100 mn barrels of crude and diesel from their strategic stockpiles in exchange for Washington withdrawing its threat to halt US fuel exports. The agreement follows pressure on US President Donald Trump from farm-state Republicans to ban fuel exports and relieve struggling farmers ahead of next month’s elections. The bloc will release the reserves over a four-month period. The full details of the plan have not been disclosed.

High bond yields? Bessent says relax: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the recent rise in US Treasury yields reflects broader global trends and should not be a cause for concern. Bessent argued that the economic fallout from the conflict in Iran is obscuring solid US fundamentals, citing robust consumer spending and median wage increases that are keeping pace with inflation.

Riyadh readies a move to retake Bab Al Mandab

Saudi Arabia is preparing to go on the offensive against the Houthis to retake Bab Al Mandab. An operation could begin within weeks, led by Yemeni forces on the ground with Saudi jets overhead, Reuters reports, citing regional and Western officials. They diverged on timing, some putting it as little as a week away and others until after the US midterm elections in early November.

Riyadh is weighing two options: It can keep the campaign tight, hitting the area around Bab Al Mandab alone, or widen it into simultaneous pushes in Al Bayda, Marib, Taiz, and Al Jawf. The bigger version could put more than 100k Yemeni troops in the field, the officials said.

Not a repeat of 2015: Michael Ratney, a former US ambassador to Saudi Arabia, told Reuters he expects something narrowly focused, far short of the Saudi-led campaign that set out to rout the Houthis a decade ago. Riyadh wants the group beaten, he said, but above all it needs to claw back the coastline the Houthis took around Bab Al Mandab and get shipping moving again, ideally through a limited operation.

It comes down to the strait: The Houthis’ move down the coast last month and their capture of Bab Al Mandab is what Riyadh aims to reverse. The seizure gives the group leverage in any future talks, and the Kingdom has decided it cannot negotiate a new peace while they hold it, Western diplomats and a Gulf official said.

Outside help stops short of the battlefield: US intelligence is already guiding Saudi operations, and a handful of regional and European governments are sending mainly defensive equipment; none of them, the officials said, are expected to take part in the fighting.

The phones have been busy: Saudi Defense Minister Prince Khalid bin Salman discussed the Kingdom’s defense partnership with the US in a call on Thursday with US Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth. He also discussed defense cooperation with French Armed Forces Minister Catherine Vautrin in a separate call.

Turkey and Pakistan have already put hardware into the fight. Pakistan flew four cargo planes into Aden loaded with air-defence systems, light artillery, drones, and anti-drone gear, a Pakistani government official told Reuters, and has stationed 30-40k troops inside the Kingdom over the past year to help defend it. Its advisers are working alongside Saudi forces, and Turkish drones that Riyadh bought before the war are in the air over Yemen.

Saudi Arabia was mainly expected to lean on air defense, intelligence, and measured retaliation, while keeping the diplomatic track open, we reported last week. Political science professor Ismail Turki told us the Kingdom could defend its territory through air defense and intelligence, back anti-Houthi Yemeni forces, and apply measured pressure, while Mustafa Antar of the Yemen and Gulf Center for Studies expected “calibrated escalation, supporting Yemeni partners, and targeting immediate threats.”

A political off-ramp is still open. The three members of the Makkah Defense Pact — Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan — will hold an emergency meeting in Riyadh this week to weigh an Iranian proposal to engage the Houthis politically, Pakistani Foreign Minister Ishaq Dar said. Iran has distanced itself from the Houthis and Iraqi militias, Dar said, adding that both Iranian President Masoud Pezeshkian and Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi want the matter settled.

REMEMBER- Pakistan has pledged to defend Saudi Arabia against the Houthis by any means available to it, judging that the group and Iraqi militias may now be acting independently.

Counting strikes

Smoke rose near an Aramco facility in Riyadh yesterday after it was hit in a Houthi missile and drone attack, Reuters reports. The Yemeni Coalition also said a Houthi strike on the Taibah distribution station in Madinah — which feeds the Prophet’s Mosque — took one power transformer offline without affecting the wider grid. The Houthis have denied this.

Over the weekend, Saudi forces intercepted five ballistic missiles and four drones aimed at Khamis Mushait and Jazan, coalition spokesman Turki Al Maliki said on X (Link 1, Link 2, and Link 3). Debris from an intercepted missile damaged buildings and vehicles in Khamis Mushait, while another interception over Asir’s Ahad Rafidah injured an Asian expat and damaged a prayer hall. A projectile also hit a school in Najran.

By the Houthis’ count, Saudi forces have carried out about 192 airstrikes and missile attacks in recent days, bringing the total to 1.35k since the escalation began, military spokesman Yahya Saree said in several posts on X (here, here, and here). He claimed the strikes hit “civilian infrastructure” across Sana’a, Saada, Taiz, Hajjah, Amran, Marib, Hodeidah, Al Jawf, and Ibb.

US buildup near Iran

Washington reinforcing presence in the region: The US is deploying a third aircraft carrier strike group and an additional Marine expeditionary unit, adding 9-10k troops to its Middle East forces as President Donald Trump weighs resuming strikes on Iran after the midterms, the Wall Street Journal reports, citing US officials. The USS Theodore Roosevelt left its home port of San Diego on Sunday on a scheduled deployment, and the USS Makin Island Amphibious Ready Group followed on Monday.

Public-sector borrowing led Saudi bank credit growth in August

Saudi bank lending kept expanding in August, led by the public sector. Total bank credit rose 7% y-o-y to SAR 3.46 tn, with lending to public-sector enterprises up 18.4% y-o-y to SAR 277 bn — about three times the 6% pace of private-sector credit — even as the month's liquidity readings softened, the Saudi Central Bank’s monthly bulletin (pdf).

Net foreign assets in the Kingdom’s banking sector dipped to SAR 1.52 tn in August from SAR 1.54 tn in July.

Behind the decline: Both Sama and commercial banks contributed to the monthly drop. The central bank’s net foreign assets declined to SAR 1.74 tn in August from SAR 1.75 tn in July, while commercial banks’ net foreign asset deficit widened to SAR 217.3 bn from SAR 210.8 bn over the same period.

Overall, commercial banks’ total assets reached nearly SAR 5.18 tn by the end of August, up 5.2% y-o-y from SAR 4.92 tn, though marginally down from SAR 5.19 tn in July. Bank credit across all maturities climbed 7% y-o-y to SAR 3.46 tn from SAR 3.24 tn. Bank claims on the private sector, meanwhile, rose 6% y-o-y to SAR 3.30 tn from SAR 3.11 tn.

Where the money went: Personal loans remained the largest category at SAR 1.47 tn; followed by real estate activities at SAR 422.7 bn; electricity, gas, and water supplies at SAR 258.2 bn; wholesale and retail trade at SAR 220.9 bn; and manufacturing credit at SAR 211.1 bn. Construction credit reached SAR 149.2 bn.

Mortgages were steady: Bank-financed mortgages hit SAR 5.87 bn in August, virtually unchanged from July, though total contract count hit a 12-month high of 9.8k. Houses accounted for the lion’s share of August’s financing (SAR 3.66 bn), followed by apartments (SAR 1.91 bn) and land (SAR 290 mn).

Import financing cooled: Settled letters of credit (LCs) and bills received for the private sector fell 4.1% to SAR 14.3 bn from SAR 14.9 bn in July, though still up 5.9% y-o-y. Among itemized categories, building materials accounted for the largest share at SAR 2.8 bn, followed by motor vehicles at SAR 2.6 bn and foodstuffs at SAR 1.4 bn. Appliances accounted for SAR 888 mn, while machinery came in at SAR 658 mn.

New LCs — our look-ahead for imports — totaled SAR 14.9 bn, up 17.6% m-o-m from July’s SAR 12.7 bn. Food more than tripled to SAR 4.5 bn from SAR 1.2 bn in July. Strip food out, and new LCs fell 8.9% m-o-m. Building materials (SAR 2.2 bn), motor vehicles (SAR 1.8 bn), appliances (SAR 822 mn), machinery (SAR 697 mn), and textiles (SAR 73 mn) made up the rest of the itemized list.

ALSO- Broad money supply (M3) fell to SAR 3.33 tn in August from SAR 3.36 tn in July, but remained 5.6% higher y-o-y. Demand deposits made up 42.8% of M3, narrowly ahead of time and savings deposits at 42.1%, while other quasi-money deposits accounted for 7.7% and currency outside banks for 7.5%. Total liabilities in the monetary survey reached SAR 5.77 tn, up 6% y-o-y.

Government and quasi-government bonds held by banks reached SAR 676 bn, up 6.1% y-o-y from SAR 637.4 bn. Bank credit to public sector enterprises stood at SAR 277.0 bn, up 18.4% y-o-y from SAR 234.0 bn.

MEANWHILE- The monetary base stood at SAR 443.5 bn, down 0.5% m-o-m but up 3.7% y-o-y. Currency outside banks accounted for 56.1% of the monetary base, while deposits of local banks at Sama made up 39.3%.

Tech Mahindra’s IMEA head on Saudi AI demand and the plan through 2030

Tech Mahindra sees enterprises now wanting AI deployments that show up in productivity, revenue, and cost, and says the harder problems are data readiness, talent, and governance. We spoke with Sahil Dhawan (LinkedIn) — who heads the company’s India, Middle East, and Africa business — about where demand is strongest, what’s slowing it, and the plan through 2030. Here are edited excerpts from our conversation:

EnterpriseAM (E): How has your Saudi business evolved, and what’s driving demand now?

Sahil Dhawan (SD): Tech Mahindra’s engagement with Saudi Arabia has evolved from providing technology services to becoming a broader transformation partner. The focus has shifted from individual technology projects to larger, business-led programs spanning cloud, data, AI, enterprise platforms, customer experience, and intelligent automation.

Today, demand is being driven by three factors — the Kingdom's digital transformation agenda, the need to modernize technology foundations, and the growing expectation that technology investments should deliver measurable business outcomes. AI is accelerating all three.

E: Which sectors are generating the strongest demand, and how are customer priorities changing?

SD: We see strong prospects across telecommunications, banking and financial services, energy and utilities, aviation, government, and other large-scale enterprises. These sectors are increasingly looking not just for technology implementation but for partners that can connect technology investments to business performance. For example, our work with Riyadh Air involves digitalizing core finance, supply chain, and human capital functions as part of its ambition to build a digitally native airline. We have also worked with a leading technology, media, and telecommunications company in Saudi Arabia on GenAI-enabled customer loyalty and engagement.

E: The Kingdom is moving fast from AI experimentation to large-scale deployment. Where’s the biggest opportunity?

SD: The biggest opportunity is helping enterprises move AI beyond experimentation and into their core operating models. At the same time, enterprises are becoming more selective about where they deploy AI. The focus is increasingly on use cases that can deliver measurable improvements in productivity, customer experience, revenue, cost, or speed.

E: What's the biggest challenge in moving from technology investment to measurable business outcomes?

SD: Technology itself is increasingly no longer the primary challenge. The more difficult issues are data readiness, integration with legacy systems, operating-model changes, talent, governance, and adoption. An organization may have access to advanced AI models and cloud infrastructure, but if its data is fragmented, its processes have not been redesigned, or its employees are not equipped to work differently, the technology will not deliver its full value.

They need to establish the desired business outcomes before selecting the technology. Is the objective to reduce processing time, improve customer conversion, reduce network downtime, or improve forecasting? These outcomes should guide the technology choices rather than the other way around. AI, in particular, needs to be embedded within workflows and operating models, rather than treated as a separate layer added to the existing organization.

E: How are you building local capability, and what are your priorities through 2030?

SD: Talent development is central to our approach in Saudi Arabia. In partnership with the Communications and Information Technology Ministry, we established a Data and AI and Cloud Center of Excellence in Riyadh, with a commitment to train 2.5k Saudi nationals through practical project deployment programs. The initiative also includes hackathons, design thinking, innovation programs, and university collaboration.

Through 2030, our priority is to expand local capabilities where demand is growing fastest — AI, cloud, data and analytics, cybersecurity, digital engineering, and intelligent automation, alongside continued investment in Saudi talent and the Riyadh Center of Excellence. We also plan to deepen partnerships with customers, hyperscalers, technology companies, universities, and government institutions to develop and deploy solutions locally. The regional headquarters in the Kingdom is an important part of this model, supporting our operations in the wider region.

A bigger Riyadh Metro order for Alstom, a local engine-building license for Rolls-Royce, and an AI outsourcing venture from Humain and EY

Driverless, by the trainload

Alstom is adding to the Riyadh Metro fleet: French rail manufacturer Alstom has signed a EUR 460 mn (SAR 2 bn) contract with the Royal Commission for Riyadh City to supply more driverless trains for the Riyadh Metro and fold them into the existing network, according to a press release. The new trains will run on Line 3 (Orange), Line 4 (Yellow) and Line 6 (Purple). Alstom will also maintain them under its existing operations and maintenance contract on the three lines, and expects to book the order in 2Q of its 2026/27 financial year.

BACKGROUND- The order rides a wave of French state-backed money into Saudi projects after the Crown Prince’s Paris visit in August. Through its export-credit arm Bpifrance Assurance Export, Paris is setting up an initial USD 5 bn credit line with the Finance Ministry to finance and de-risk French contracts in the kingdom, plus a separate USD 5 bn package for the National Debt Management Center covering Riyadh Metro work, AlUla's Sharaan Hotel, and rolling stock for Expo 2030 and the 2034 World Cup.

License to build

Rolls-Royce Power Systems has licensed Saudi Engines Manufacturing Co. (Makeen) to locally manufacture and assemble its mtu Series 2000 marine engines, according to a company statement. The licensing agreement will see the partners establish local production capabilities for the engines, though it does not specify an investment value, production capacity, or manufacturing timeline. Makeen is a joint venture between Aramco, HD Hyundai Heavy Industries, and PIF-backed industrial investor Dussur.

Why it matters: This fits in with the Kingdom’s defense localization push. Rolls-Royce frames the license as covering marine and naval applications, and mtu rates the Series 2000 for fast patrol and police craft as well as high-speed ferries. Saudi puts about 25% of military procurement into domestic production against a 50% target for 2030, a goal Sipri’s Zubaida Karim told us last month will be difficult to reach given continued reliance on imported systems.

REMEMBER- The new license builds on a framework agreement signed in early 2024 that laid the groundwork for manufacturing, testing, selling, and servicing mtu engines and generator sets locally.

AI takes on the back office

PIF-backed Humain tapped EY to develop what is billed as Saudi Arabia’s first AI-native business process outsourcing (BPO) service, according to a statement. Humain will provide the AI infrastructure and agentic platform underpinning the service, while EY will help develop and commercialize it. The companies haven’t disclosed an investment value or launch date.

REMEMBER- Humain and EY teamed up last year to adapt EY’s enterprise tools into AI agents for Humain One, the Saudi company's platform for automating business functions such as HR, finance, and procurement. The expanded partnership will build on that platform to develop a commercial outsourcing service.

MENA sovereign funds lose global ground as sovereign investors elsewhere speed up

MENA sovereign wealth funds put USD 102 bn to work in the first nine months of 2026 across 245 transactions. That accounts for 39% of all dealmaking by state-owned investors globally, coming in below where the region sat in 2023-25 in both total value and global share, according to Global SWF’s 2026 MENA Playbook.

As the Gulf caught its breath, the rest of the world’s SWFs sped up. The region lost ground relative to the global total as sovereign and pension funds outside the region invested USD 160 bn by the end of 3Q 2026, totaling more than they managed in all of 2025, according to the report.

At the current pace, MENA funds are set to finish the year with a total of USD 136 bn deployed. That would fall short of the 2025 total, but comes as the second-highest annual total on record — although the total was inflated by PIF’s takeover of EA. The agreement count is projected to close at 327, second only to 2019, pushed by smaller and more frequent technology cheques.

Mubadala was the most acquisitive fund at USD 26.2 bn, counting capital deployed by Adic, Mubadala Capital, and MGX, which took part in the multi-bn financing rounds at OpenAI, Anthropic, and Databricks. PIF follows at USD 14.0 bn, then Adia at USD 12.2 bn, L’imad at USD 10.8 bn, and QIA at USD 10.3 bn.

Most Gulf funds — with the exception of PIF — are tracking above their 2020-25 annual averages. The Saudi fund is projected to end the year at USD 18.7 bn against an average of USD 21.4 bn, as it slows down outside the Kingdom and concentrates what it does spend. Its holdings in EA (USD 51.4 bn), SpaceX (USD 26.4 bn), and Warner Bros (USD 10.0 bn) would account for roughly half its international book, which Global SWF says no other sovereign fund comes close to matching.

Four-fifths of the money went abroad. The US took 45% of total value at USD 45.6 bn, followed by the UAE at USD 18.2 bn, China, including Hong Kong, at 10%, and the UK at 7%. Technology, including AI rounds, made up 28% of deal volume and almost 30% of value, ahead of infrastructure at 22% and financial services at 14%. Real estate fell to 5% of volume and 11% of value.

Governments are now starting to draw on the funds themselves, with Global SWF expecting industry assets to drop for the first time since 2015. Kuwait reported a USD 23.1 bn budget deficit in 1Q 2026, and Qatar’s 2Q 2026 deficit came in at USD 5.8 bn, which the firm reads as pointing to fresh withdrawals from KIA and the first tap of QIA.

The AUM outlook: MENA SWFs manage USD 6.1 tn today, and the firm still sees that number reaching USD 8.8 tn by 2030.

TASI	10,393	-0.5% (YTD: -0.9%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,400	-0.5% (YTD: +0.9%)
NomuC	21,073	-1.1% (YTD: -9.5%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	4.25% repo	3.75% reverse repo
EGX30	53,055	+2.2%(YTD: +26.8%)
ADX	9,973	-0.3% (YTD: -0.2%)
DFM	5,901	-0.5% (YTD: -2.4%)
S&P 500	7,723	+0.7% (YTD: +12.8%)
FTSE 100	10,462	+0.3% (YTD: +5.3%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,239	1.0% (YTD: +7.6%)
Brent crude	USD 102.25	-0.1%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.04	+2.3%
Gold	USD 4,162	-1.0%
BTC	USD 84,798	+0.3% (YTD: -30.6%)
Sukuk/bond market index	887.35	-1.9% (YTD: -3.5%)
S&P MENA bond & sukuk	146.49	+0.3% (YTD: -3.6%)
VIX (Fear gauge)	15.31	-6.6% (YTD: +3.1%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI fell 0.5% yesterday on turnover of SAR 4.7 bn. The index is down 0.9% YTD.

In the green: Raydan Food (+7.8%), Naseej International Trading (+4.4%), and Raoom Trading (+4.3%).

In the red: Methanol Chemical (-9.5%), Tabuk Agricultural Development (-8.3%), and Armah Sports (-7.8%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC fell 1.1% yesterday on turnover of SAR 18.5 mn. The index is down 9.5% YTD.

In the green: Naf Company for Feed for Industry (+18.6%), Clean Life (+10.3%), and MOBI Industry (+9.0%).

In the red: Lana Medical (-17.0%), Rawasi Albina Investment (-11.7%), and eaf Global Environmental Services (-10.7%).

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Purity for Information Technology’s shares will resume trading on Sunday, 4 October, for 20 sessions after a one-day suspension on Thursday for failing to publish its financial statements for the period ending 30 June, according to a Tadawul announcement. The company has until 29 October to release its results. If it misses the deadline, trading will be suspended again from 1 November until the statements are published.

Rawasi Albina Investment’s shares are being suspended again starting today, after the company exhausted its 20-session trading window without publishing its 1H 2026 financial results, according to a Tadawul disclosure. Its auditor still needs to finish reconciliations and adjustments across several accounts and ongoing projects and gather supporting documents from external parties. Trading stays frozen until the results are published and the requirements met.

Raydan Food’s board has recommended increasing the company’s planned capital reduction to 80% from the previously proposed 70%, cutting capital to SAR 14.6 mn from SAR 73.1 mn to write off SAR 58.5 mn in accumulated losses, according to a Tadawul disclosure. The reduction would lower the nominal value per share to SAR 2 from SAR 10, leaving the share count unchanged. The company says it will still go ahead with its planned SAR 105 mn rights issue to fund expansion and support working capital. Both steps remain subject to regulatory and shareholder approval.

CALENDAR

11-15 October (Sunday-Thursday): WPC Energy Congress, Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center, Riyadh.

11-15 October (Sunday-Thursday): Riyadh Energy Week, Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center, Riyadh.

14-17 October 2027 (Thursday-Sunday): Red Sea Yacht Show, Jeddah Yacht Club, Jeddah.

21 October - 30 December (Wednesday-Wednesday): Riyadh Season, Riyadh.

25-26 October (Sunday-Monday): The Global Proptech Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): ACHEMA Middle East, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): The Future Investment Initiative, King Abdulaziz International Conference Center, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

30 October-1 November (Friday-Sunday): The New Global Sport Conference, Sofitel Hotel & Convention Centre, Riyadh.

NOVEMBER

11-12 November (Wednesday-Thursday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

16-19 November (Monday-Thursday): Cityscape Global, Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre (Malham), Riyadh.

29 November-1 December (Sunday-Tuesday): The UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum, Riyadh.

29 November-1 December (Sunday-Tuesday): The Global Logistics Forum, King Abdulaziz International Convention Centre, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2H: Sabic’s USD 6.4 bn Fujian project in China to start production;
November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh;
The World Economic Forum’s Global Collaboration and Growth Meeting, Jeddah;

2027

FEBRUARY

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): Energy Regulators Regional Association annual conference, Riyadh.

MARCH

21-25 March (Sunday-Thursday):The World Water Forum, Riyadh.

22–24 March (Monday-Wednesday): Capital Markets Forum, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh

APRIL

26-29 April (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

JUNE

1-3 June (Tuesday-Thursday): The Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed;
Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun takes place in Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

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