Priced out, waiting it out

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Humain onboards Goldman Sachs for data center financing

Good morning, all. Real estate leads today’s issue, as we look at the Kingdom’s residential market and how it has been impacted by the regional war.

Plus: In a conversation with Sharakah Capital Partner Latifa Banasr, we dive into what the medium-term has in store for regional VCs.

Happening today

#1- A GCC-UK trade agreement could be finalized today as representatives from both sides meet in London, Bloomberg reports, citing comments made by GCC Secretary-General Jasem Albudaiwi that were picked up by Saudi media. From the UK side, officials said talks were ongoing but steered clear of specifying whether the agreement would come today.

ICYMI- Earlier this week, sources familiar with the matter said an agreement would be wrapped up “within days,” after Albudaiwi said last week that talks had made “significant progress.” Financial services, health, and industrial growth were among the sectors cited for cooperation efforts.

A long time coming: Talks have been ongoing for around four years now, with reports of an imminent agreement going as far back as 2024. More recently last October, UK Finance Minister Rachel Reeves had said one would be reached “very soon.”

#2- Dar Al Balad will start trading on Tadawul’s main index today, after the IT service outfit saw strong demand for both its institutional and retail tranches. We will be watching closely how the first GCC IPO after the Iran War will perform on its first day.

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Watch this space

TECH — Humain taps Goldman Sachs for data-center financing push: PIF-owned AI champion Humain reportedly hired Goldman Sachs to advise on a financing package of at least SAR 20 bn to build out data centers in the Riyadh area, Reuters reports, citing sources it says are in the know.

The money will go toward data center infrastructure and GPU chips for 2 GW of capacity — about a third of Humain’s 2034 target.

Why bring in Goldman now? The numbers are getting too big. The IEA recently put global data center investment needs at USD 3.9 tn between 2026 and 2030, calling it “too large to be funded solely from the balance sheets of AI companies.”

Humain has been moving quickly, striking agreements with Elon Musk’s xAI (where it holds a minority stake), Blackstone-backed AirTrunk, and a separate AI zone partnership with Amazon Web Services (AWS).

The Iran war wrinkle: The financing push comes despite fresh regional security concerns after Iranian drones struck AWS data centers in the UAE and Bahrain. AWS is still pressing ahead with its multi-USD bn investment alongside Humain — a signal that hyperscalers are wagering that the Kingdom's interior geography and cheap energy outweigh the headline risk for now.

The bigger picture: Saudi is racing the UAE and Qatar to position itself as the Gulf’s compute hub, pitching cheap power to the likes of Google, Microsoft, and Meta. The PIF has also been on a recalibration push, scaling back some gigaprojects to liberate capital for high-return sectors, especially AI and tech.

DEBT WATCH — Alinma Bank is tapping the USD debt market with a USD-denominated sustainable AT1 issuance, according to a Tadawul disclosure.

This will be Alinma’s second issuance this month. The shariah-compliant lender kicked off an issuance of SAR-denominated AT1 sukuk earlier this month under an existing SAR 5 bn program. The issuance ended on Sunday.

Why it matters: Regional issuers are leaning into international markets to strengthen their capital base while pricing windows remain open. S&P had expected domestic banks’ net external debt to rise to 6% of total loans by end-2026.

The debt drive comes after a solid opening to the year: Alinma’s 1Q net income rose 11.3% y-o-y to SAR 1.7 bn, buoyed by expanding financing and investment portfolios.

ADVISORS- The bank tapped Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank, Alinma Capital, Arqaam Capital, ASB Capital, Citi, DBS Bank, Emirates NBD Capital, First Abu Dhabi Bank, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, Mashreq, Standard Chartered, and Warba Bank as joint lead managers.

REAL ESTATE — Saudi Arabia plans to issue up to SAR 150 bn (USD 40 bn) in international real estate sukuk by 2030, Housing Minister Majed Al Hogail told the Arabic press (watch, runtime: 1:20). The government aims to debut the program this year with an initial SAR 20 bn tranche, provided global geopolitical tensions settle and borrowing costs decline.

Why it matters: The pivot to international debt markets is a move from the Kingdom to shoulder the domestic banking sector as it needs more funds to finance the national housing boom.

The annual trend: Saudi Real Estate Refinance tapped international markets last year with a USD 2 bn issuance that was 6x oversubscribed.

ENERGY — The proposed US-Saudi nuclear cooperation agreement is reportedly in “final review,” but does not include key guardrails called for by Democratic lawmakers, according to a State Department letter seen by Reuters. The pact will establish a “legal foundation” for a “USD multi-bn civil nuclear partnership,” according to the letter, which did not divulge further details.

What’s next? The agreement will take effect within 90 days of being approved by President Donald Trump, unless the US Senate and the House of Representative pass resolutions to impede it.

What we know so far: The proposed pact could potentially permit the Kingdom to acquire uranium enrichment technology or capabilities, as well as enable cooperation in fuel fabrication and reprocessing.

Data point

USD 149.6 bn — that’s where Saudi Arabia’s US Treasuries holdings stood in March, down USD 10.8 bn m-o-m, according to data from the US Treasury Department. The dip serves as a sharp reversal from the record monthly increase seen in February. The Kingdom nonetheless maintained its position as the 17th largest foreign holder of US debt.

The decrease was driven by a drop in short-term Treasuries, which declined 22% m-o-m to USD 42.6 bn, reducing our share of total holdings to 28.5% from 34% in February. Long-term bonds edged up a slight 1.1% to USD 106.9 bn, accounting for 71.5% of the portfolio.

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The big story abroad

With Kevin Warsh poised to take the helm of the Federal Reserve this Friday, business headlines are focusing on rising treasury yields that could complicate his expected dovish agenda. Investors may demand higher returns for long-term debt, especially amid rising energy prices, a resilient economy, and the highest yield on treasuries in almost 20 years.

Meanwhile, in the tech world: Google is further integrating AI in its search function while introducing what it calls Gemini Spark, an AI “agent” that is designed to function independently and act on a user’s behalf. The tech giant is also rolling out smart glasses that will include a camera and speaker in a bid to challenge moves made by its rival Meta.

And speaking of AI: Standard Chartered is looking to slash some 8k jobs in favor of relying more heavily on AI, with cuts affecting its human resources and risk and compliance functions. The company’s CEO Bill Winters has characterized the move as a shift away from “lower-value human capital.”

ALSO: Elon Musk’s SpaceX has reportedly tapped Goldman Sachs to lead its highly anticipated IPO, with the bank set to assume the most prominent spot among the underwriters involved. Goldman and Morgan Stanley will reportedly be serving as lead bankers.

LIV Golf sliding into bankruptcy? Weeks after losing its backing from the Public Investment Fund, LIV Golf is reportedly exploring a US bankruptcy filing as a worst-case scenario if its search for new capital falls short. The golf league is looking for investors before the season ends in August.

Good news for Arsenal fans: For the first time in 22 years, Arsenal FC took home the Premier League championship after Manchester City tied in yesterday’s showdown with Bournemouth. The Gunners, under the leadership of Mikel Arteta, have secured a total of 82 points.

Saudi’s 1Q housing slump

The Kingdom’s residential market shrank by more than half in 1Q 2026, as the war compounded an affordability squeeze that prompted the government to step in last year. Residential sales in Saudi Arabia were down 53% y-o-y in the first quarter, according to data from the Justice Ministry tracked by Knight Frank.

The slowdown was already underway before missiles started flying in late February, as housing affordability is at the heart of declining activity rather than geopolitics, Knight Frank MENA research head Faisal Durrani tells EnterpriseAM.

Riyadh tells the clearest version of that story. Apartment prices in the capital have nearly doubled since 2019, and villa prices have climbed by over 50%, Durrani says. Meanwhile, “incomes have not kept pace with this level of house price growth, which has curbed [transaction] volumes.” Sales activity in the capital fell 83% y-o-y in 1Q, much higher than the 53% national decline.

The war hardened a “wait-and-see” stance among buyers. “It is understandable that families and households are reluctant to commit to what may be their largest ever financial commitment during a time of such heightened regional geopolitical uncertainty,” Durrani adds.

The war’s timing was awkward for the Kingdom’s foreign-buyer push. New rules opening the property market to foreign investors took effect in January, with the government targeting USD 85 bn in annual foreign property inflows by 2030. The map detailing where foreigners can buy was initially due in 1Q but has yet to be published.

REMEMBER- The government has been working on a diverse set of real estate reforms to face the soaring real estate prices, including Riyadh’s rent freezes, a vacant property tax regime, a 10% white land tax, and easing foreign ownership rules. This strategy seems to be starting to pay off as the Real Estate Price Index recorded its first annual decline in five years in 4Q 2025, and continuing a cooling trend 1Q 2026, with the residential sector accounting for the bulk of the downturn.

The medium-term outlook still points to a housing shortage, Durrani says. Saudi Arabia will require an estimated 830k housing units by 2034 just to meet population growth needs, he tells us. The present challenge for developers is alignment, as supply must better match household budgets so that affordability continues to anchor the market slowdown.

DATA POINT- Knight Frank research puts the ceiling Saudi nationals are willing to pay at SAR 1.5 mn per home, while high-net-worth foreign buyers will stretch to around USD 1 mn (SAR 3.75 mn).

ALSO- The Real Estate General Authority and the Justice Ministry have restricted real estate transactions in Riyadh exclusively to the Real Estate Registry, Argaam reports. This applies to ownership transfers, updating title deeds, mortgage services, and more. Rollouts to other cities will take place sequentially based on readiness.

ICYMI: The authority recently completed the registration of all real estate zones within Riyadh's urban areas, finalizing the city's digital map on the platform.

Sharakah Capital’s blueprint for MENA’s early-stage tech scene

The next three years could open a major window for regional venture capital firms to deepen their footprint across MENA as international growth investors continue to pull back from the market on global macroeconomic shifts and geopolitical risks, Latifa Banasr, partner at boutique investment firm Sharakah Capital, tells EnterpriseAM.

Growth-stage blues vs. early-stage cruise: The retreat of global investors such as SoftBank and General Atlantic has left a noticeable funding gap in growth-stage capital across the region. But Banasr says early-stage funding has been only “negligibly affected” by the pullback. “We’re very lucky that in MENA specifically, early stage requires local expertise,” she says. “The next three years will be a [chance] for us — local VCs and MENA-based VCs — to grab as many [prospects] out of the market and nurture them to attract international investors down the line.”

To position itself for that shift, Sharakah expanded the mandate of its second venture fund to cover seed through Series A investments, broadening its early-stage exposure beyond the seed-stage focus of its first, fully deployed fund.

What geopolitics hasn’t touched are long-term priorities: While tensions have reshaped investor sentiment across the region, Banasr says the Sharakah’s investment priorities have remained largely intact, with Saudi Arabia continuing to anchor its strategy. “With the war and the geopolitical changes, the only thing we’ve been cognizant of is the sustainability of operations and interruptions,” she says. “We are 100% wholeheartedly invested in the region, and that will not change.”

And the tech trio is as appealing as ever: Sharakah remains focused on core sectors like fintech, AI, and cybersecurity, which Banasr says have remained relatively insulated from physical disruptions and continue to account for 30% of global trade and investment activity.

What to watch

“The disruption that we’re most focused on is the AI disruption,” Banasr tells us. While around 60% of Sharakah Capital’s investment thesis for its second fund centers on fintech, vertical SaaS, and ecommerce startups, the firm now evaluates every SaaS company through the lens of AI disruption and defensibility. “Every time we meet a SaaS company, we ask: ‘How much of this company is improved or disrupted by AI of their core product and offering?’,” she says.

What it looks for: Sharakah Capital prioritizes startups that use machine learning and automation as core infrastructure, while steering away from “copycat” software models in favor of companies with stronger technological defensibility, particularly in regulated sectors like fintech. “AI and the AI disruption is one of the things that makes me super excited as an investor,” says Banasr.

Beyond VC, Sharakah Capital expanded its strategy last year by launching a sell-side advisory arm focused on facilitating M&A for SMEs in Saudi Arabia. Banasr says the move was designed to address fundraising bottlenecks facing startups that are often unable to secure backing due to portfolio conflicts among regional VCs. “A lot of good startups are faced with the idea that ‘I can’t invest in you just because I invested in a competitor,’” she says. The firm has already advised on agreements including Ibn Dawood Holding’s acquisition of Faza and a transaction involving Al Khozama.

GCC railway gets cabinet green light

The cabinet approved the Kingdom’s accession to the GCC railway agreement in a session held yesterday, state news agency SPA reports. The decision moves the long-discussed Gulf rail network — first floated more than a decade ago — closer to execution.

REFRESHER- The project is a 2.1k-km railway that aims to link the six GCC member states. Numerous delays have long stalled the railway, which was projected to cost some USD 15 bn back in 2023.

The war seems to have put some urgency on the project. Saudi Arabia Railways launched a tender for design consultancy services for its portion of the railway last week, and Kuwait approved the right-of-way and land allocation for the rail link connecting Kuwait to Saudi Arabia as part of the project.

ALSO FROM THE SESSION- Security messaging stays firm: The cabinet reiterated that Saudi Arabia “will not hesitate” to take whatever steps are needed to protect its security and residents. Ministers also backed the outcomes of the emergency GCC interior ministers’ meeting held in Riyadh, which reaffirmed that Gulf security is “indivisible” and called for tighter coordination on regional challenges.

AND- Whistleblower protections finalized: The cabinet approved the executive regulations for the system protecting whistleblowers, witnesses, experts, and victims.

Americana in Adnoc stations, Local firms awarded gravel sites, Fintech Arib raises USD 23.5 mn

Grab a bite while at Adnoc service stations

Americana Restaurants will roll out up to 200 dining outlets across Adnoc Distribution service stations in Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Egypt, according to a press release (pdf). The partnership, inked between the restaurant operator and Adnoc Distribution, brings Americana’s portfolio of 12 global brands into Adnoc’s fuel retail network across the three markets.

For Americana Restaurants, the agreement opens access to high-traffic roadside and service station locations across regional markets, supporting network expansion beyond traditional malls and high-street sites. The company currently operates around 2.7k restaurants.

For Adnoc, the agreement supports its push to grow non-fuel revenue as it works toward doubling non-fuel transactions by 2030. The segment has already become an important earnings driver, with non-fuel gross income rising more than 14% y-o-y in 2025.

Industry Ministry taps local firms for Al Saman gravel mining projects

The Industry and Minerals Resources Ministry awarded 11 local companies mining sites in the Eastern Province’s Al Saman Crushers Complex, state news agency SPA reports. The sites, covering a combined area of 9 sq km, are designated for gravel extraction to support construction and development projects, as the Kingdom looks to secure raw materials for its infrastructure pipeline.

Fintech Arib secures USD 23.5 mn backing from Merak Capital

Saudi fintech Arib raised USD 23.5 mn in a funding round led by Merak Capital, according to a press release. The round also included shariah-compliant Murabaha financing facilities. Arib said the proceeds will be used to upgrade its technology infrastructure, expand operations, and roll out new financing products targeting consumers and businesses.

About Arib: Founded in 2018 by Omar Alhammad, Mohamed Dessouky, and Waleed Talaat, Arib operates an online financing marketplace that connects users with banks and licensed lenders, allowing customers to compare and apply for financing offers digitally. Arib previously raised USD 2.3 mn in a seed round in 2022, also led by Merak Capital.

Connecting Yanbu, Jeddah, Ain Sokhna, and Aqaba

Folk Maritime has launched its Red Sea Express shipping service in Yanbu’s King Fahad Industrial Port, connecting the port to Jeddah Islamic Port, Egypt’s Ain Sokhna Port, and Jordan’s Aqaba Port, according to a statement from Mawani. The service has a 1.1k standard container capacity.

The USD 10 bn ticket out

In the span of a few hours on Monday, the case against Asia’s richest man fell apart. The US Department of Justice moved to drop criminal fraud charges against Gautam Adani “with prejudice” — meaning they cannot be refiled — while the US Treasury Department simultaneously resolved a sanctions-related probe involving Adani Enterprises with a USD 275 mn settlement, Bloomberg reports. The SEC’s civil fraud case settled the week prior for USD 18 mn in penalties. The reported price of relief? A USD 10 bn investment pledge in the US.

The Adani Group entered the courtroom on Monday with USD 29 bn in net debt, 41% of which it owed to global banks and capital markets, CNBC reports. It left the courtroom with access to the international capital markets, which had been restricted for nearly 18 months.

Timing is everything: Adani’s clearance comes only four days after Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi touched down in the UAE for a visit that produced a pile of agreements across banking, sovereign infrastructure co-investment, shipping repair, and AI.

The Adani Group sits inside nearly every category discussed during the visit. The conglomerate manages logistics infrastructure across multiple GCC trade corridors and runs the ports, power, and renewables platforms that absorb a meaningful share of GCC-India physical trade. The sanctions overhang on the corridor’s largest single non-state infrastructure player was a binding constraint that has now been lifted.

The implications of the ruling unravel in different directions. For GCC sovereign wealth funds, the Adani resolution clears a counterparty risk that has quietly been impacting co-investment discussions for the past year and a half. The next round of deployments — into ports, logistics, renewables, transmission, and data centers — is where Adani inevitably appears as a partner, and that round was on hold.

Second, the Dubai-based trading intermediary at the center of the Treasury sanctions settlement serves as an enforcement precedent. The probe focused on LPG allegedly originating in Iran but documented as Omani or Iraqi and channeled through a Dubai trader. Now, every GCC commercial player in the India-bound energy trade will be expected to absorb tighter compliance costs at exactly the moment the corridor is being scaled.

Third, the USD 10 bn US investment pledge is the template. It is the cost-of-doing-business price for regulatory relief for a non-US conglomerate with deep US capital markets exposure. Every globally significant Gulf or Indian entity facing similar pressure — and there may be more, given the war’s pressure on trade flows through Hormuz, Fujairah, and the Red Sea — now has a reference point.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets are down this morning, with investors adopting a wait-and-see approach as they digest higher bond yields and geopolitical tensions. Japan’s Nikkei is down 1.7% and South Korea’s Kospi is down almost 2%.

TASI	10,982	+0.2% (YTD: +4.7%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,469	+0.1% (YTD: +5.9%)
NomuC	22,743	+0.1% (YTD: -2.4%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	4.25% repo	3.75% reverse repo
EGX30	52,775	+1.5% (YTD: +26.2%)
ADX	9,649	+0.9% (YTD: -3.4%)
DFM	5,662	+0.9% (YTD: -6.4%)
S&P 500	7,354	-0.7% (YTD: +7.4%)
FTSE 100	10,331	+0.1% (YTD: +4.0%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,851	0.0% (YTD: +1.0%)
Brent crude	USD 111.28	-0.7%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.11	-0.1%
Gold	USD 4,484	-0.6%
BTC	USD 76,740	-0.4% (YTD: -12.4%)
Sukuk/bond market index	909.44	0.0% (YTD: -1.1%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	149.98	-0.2% (YTD: -1.3%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	18.06	+1.4% (YTD: +20.8%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI rose 0.2% yesterday on turnover of SAR 4.7 bn. The index is up 4.7% YTD.

In the green: Sasco (+10.0%), Tadco (+5.9%), and Savola Group (+4.8%).

In the red: Bupa Arabia (-4.0%), Almoosa (-3.1%), and Thimar (-3.0%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC rose 0.1% yesterday on turnover of SAR 25.3 mn. The index is down 2.4% YTD.

In the green: Munawla (+15.0%), Future Vision (+12.5%), and Service Equipment (+12.0%).

In the red: Horizon Food (-7.9%), Leen Alkhair (-6.7%), and Arabica Star (-6.1%).

CALENDAR

MAY

24-28 May (Sunday-Thursday): Eid Al Adha holiday.

JUNE

15-17 June (Monday-Wednesday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh Front Expo.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Print & Pack, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Riyadh International Industry Week, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Plastics & Petrochem, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

22-24 June (Monday-Wednesday): The Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

JULY

6 July-23 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

AUGUST

30 August-1 September (Sunday-Tuesday): The Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

31 August-3 September (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center - Malham.

SEPTEMBER

8-10 September (Tuesday-Thursday): The WTM Spotlight Riyadh, Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center (RFECC), Riyadh

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

28 September-1 October (Monday-Thursday): The International Conference on Theory and Practice of Electronic Governance (ICEGOV), Prince Sultan University, Riyadh.

OCTOBER

12-15 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): ACHEMA Middle East, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

NOVEMBER

25-29 November (Wednesday-Sunday): Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun, Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2H: Sabic’s USD 6.4 bn Fujian project in China to start production;
September: Saudi Paper and Packaging Expo, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center;
November: The UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia;
November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh;
The World Economic Forum’s Global Collaboration and Growth Meeting, Jeddah;
SkyMove Air Cargo MENA, Riyadh;
The Intervision international music competition will take place in Saudi Arabia.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh;
The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed;
Capital Markets Forum takes place in March in Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

2027

FEBRUARY

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): Energy Regulators Regional Association annual conference, Riyadh.

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Today at a glance

Humain onboards Goldman Sachs for data center financing