Post-Hormuz math

1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Infrastructure planning pays off for Aramco

Good morning, ladies and gents. It’s another issue where we stress about Saudi’s fiscal resilience, and analysts are telling us things could go either way for our budget deficit when (or if?) Hormuz reopens for business. It’s also another earnings-heavy issue with the likes of Al Othaim Markets, Jarir Marketing, Sasco, and more showing their books for 1Q.

SPEAKING OF- Aramco chief Amin Nasser expressed pride in the oil giant’s better-than-expected 1Q results, telling analysts in an earnings call that the company’s wide-ranging investments in its infrastructure paid off in a time of crisis.

What made the difference? The robust East-West pipeline, which can export some 5 mn bbl / d through Yanbu’s north and south terminals, a capacity that Aramco is working to increase even further, according to Nasser. Localized supply chains also meant local content was immediately deployed to fix disruptions and restore output. “We would have been delayed for months — if not years — if the restoration elements that we needed were not available and handy within the Kingdom,” Nasser said.

The strait is choking off a big chunk of supplies. Oil markets are losing 100 mn barrels every week the strait remains shut, Nasser estimated. Dipping into storage is threatening global stockpiles and masking how tight the market actually is, with most of the spare capacity locked behind Hormuz in the Arabian Gulf, he added.

Rationing could bring demand growth down to 700-900k bbl / d if the strait remains closed. Still, demand is poised for a strong recovery if the strait fully opens, “significantly higher than initial estimates” for 2026, Nasser said.

^^ We have more on the oil giant’s earnings (and what they mean for global trade) in this morning’s Planet Finance.

Watch this space

EXPANSION — JLL is setting up a sports and entertainment hub in Riyadh, the real estate services firm said in a statement. The new base will serve clients across the region and globally, offering everything from leasing and operations to development advisory and investment support for stadiums, arenas, theme parks, cinemas, and other entertainment venues.

Who’s running it? Ahmed Abas (LinkedIn) has been appointed regional head of sports and entertainment for the Middle East and Africa. He’s a PPP specialist with over 15 years in the region, and sits on the advisory boards of the Middle East Sports Investment Forum and the World Stadiums and Arenas Summit.

Why Riyadh? The Kingdom is becoming the epicenter of the region’s sports and entertainment buildout as it gears up to host the 2034 Fifa World Cup. The government is aiming for the sector to contribute 3% of non-oil GDP by 2030.

OIL — Saudi’s crude exports to China are set to drop sharply to some 13-14 mn barrels in June from around 20 mn barrels in May, Bloomberg reports, citing traders it says are in the know. This is far below the pre‑war average of 40-50 mn barrels per month.

Why? The drop is mainly due to the Hormuz closure, which is forcing Aramco to ship June cargoes to China from the Red Sea’s Yanbu terminal. Aramco’s June official selling prices were also set above other Middle Eastern grades including Murban and Oman, the traders said. This is despite physical-market crude premiums starting to ease recently.

TRAVEL — No more visas to get into Russia: The Saudi-Russian mutual visa waiver officially entered into force yesterday. The agreement — inked at the end of last year on the sidelines of the Saudi-Russian Investment and Business Forum — allows citizens of both countries to stay for up to 90 days for business or tourism, though it notably excludes work, residency, and Hajj.

Data point

14.5 mn — that’s the total cargo tonnage handled by Saudi ports in April, Mawani said on X. Transshipments accounted for 130k TEUs during the month, while livestock volumes stood at over 830k heads. Passenger traffic totaled 70.7k, vehicle throughput reached 53.9k, and container volumes came in at 508.8k.

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The big story abroad

News outlets are following the ups-and-downs of the regional conflict, the latest of which is President Donald Trump’s characterization of the ceasefire as “on massive life support.” Trump called Tehran’s counterproposal to end the monthslong war as “unacceptable,” with the major sticking point being Iran’s stockpile of enriched uranium.

Washington has released 53.3 mn barrels of crude from its reserves to steady oil markets in light of the Iran war, loaning out the supply to nine companies, including ExxonMobil, Trafigura, and Marathon.

One step closer to Warsh’s Fed: Trump’s pick for Fed chair, Kevin Warsh, is one step closer to securing the position, following yesterday’s so-called cloture vote by the Senate. Outgoing chief Jerome ‌Powell’s term ends on Friday.

Meanwhile, in the entertainment business: Sony Music Group acquired the rights to more than 45k songs from alternative asset manager Blackstone under an almost USD 4 bn agreement. The catalogue includes iconic tracks by Journey, Leonard Cohen, and others.

Will Saudi’s fiscal resilience hold up when Hormuz reopens?

The fiscal math is getting harder for Riyadh. Saudi Arabia is heading into the rest of 2026 with an SAR 126 bn hole punched into its books in 1Q alone — the result of a 20% y-o-y jump in spending colliding with oil revenues that are quietly drifting in the wrong direction.

The official line is that this is a deficit by design — a countercyclical wager that the Kingdom can keep pouring money into gigaprojects and military commitments while Hormuz stays closed and Brent trades on a war premium. The question for the next three quarters is whether the design holds, or whether 1Q turns out to have been the easy part.

The base case the government is selling: A full-year deficit of around SAR 165 bn, or 3.3% of GDP, with non-oil revenues continuing the climb they’ve been on — VAT, corporate taxes, tourism receipts, fees — and spending pulling back across 2Q to 4Q.

The early signals on the non-oil side are real: E-commerce sales were up 42.6% in 1Q, point-of-sale transactions hit SAR 189.7 bn, and non-oil exports surged 17.5% in January and February. But the spending side is where the plan starts to wobble.

The Brent question won’t go away. As of last week, the benchmark is hovering just above USD 100 / bbl — off its end-of-April high of USD 126. Hormuz has been largely closed since late February, and a chunk of today’s price is a straight-up war premium — the kind that evaporates the moment tankers start moving freely again.

Here’s where it matters for Riyadh: Our fiscal breakeven now sits near USD 85 / bbl, well above the UAE and Qatar at USD 43-45. “Saudi is the GCC member most exposed to where prices settle once Hormuz reopens,” Celine Bteish, geoeconomist and former IMF analyst, tells EnterpriseAM. If prices land above USD 85, the Kingdom rebuilds buffers and the spending engine keeps humming.

If they don’t, the recalibration that’s already underway gets sharper. More selective capital allocation, heavier debt issuance, and a continued push to shift financing off the sovereign balance sheet and onto global investors via capital market deepening, Bteish says.

The offset from current high oil prices is a clock, not a cushion. “Higher oil revenues will not last long. Once the strait opens, oil prices will begin to decline gradually, so that offset will slowly lose momentum throughout the year,” MENA Economist Hamzeh Al Gaaod tells us.

Add to that Opec+’s diminished pricing power after the UAE’s exit, and the read-across is that crude can support the books in the short to medium term, but not for longer, Al Gaood says.

The logistics story is more reassuring. Saudi has spent the war quietly building dual-route resilience. Red Sea flows out of Yanbu ramped up to roughly 4 mn bbl / d by mid-March from 770k bbl / d in early 2026, giving the Kingdom a credible alternative to Hormuz and a stronger pitch to buyers regardless of how the strait situation resolves. That matters for market share when global demand rotates back to normal patterns.

The spending problem is real though. Expenditure in 1Q ran 20% higher y-o-y at SAR 387 bn, with military outlays alone up 26% to SAR 64.7 bn. The 2026 budget is built on a public sector efficiency drive, but gigaprojects and defense commitments are pulling in the opposite direction.

“If oil softens and spending overshoots, the deficit could approach SAR 250 bn, similar to the 2025 outcome,” Pepperstone Market Strategist Ahmed Assiri tells us. The absorption capacity is there — government reserves are expected to hold steady at around SAR 390 bn, and public debt (at roughly 33% of GDP) remains comfortably inside international safe zones. But financing costs are climbing alongside debt volumes, which narrows the room to borrow cheaply later.

The bottom line: Non-oil activity now accounts for more than half of real GDP, which is the structural buffer that didn’t exist a decade ago. The rest of 2026 is going to test how much of a buffer that really is. The budget’s prospects rest on two things the Kingdom doesn’t fully control: where Brent settles when the war premium fades, and whether global demand holds up enough for Saudi to capture the volume it needs. Strong demand, higher-for-longer prices, and disciplined 2Q-4Q spending is the scenario that lets the SAR 165 bn target survive contact with reality.

Retal goes to Oman

Retal enters Oman with a SAR 3.1 bn project: Retal Urban Development will develop a SAR 3.1 bn residential community in Oman’s Sultan Haitham City under an agreement inked with Oman’s Housing and Urban Planning Ministry, according to a Tadawul disclosure. The development will be Retal’s first in the Sultanate, and comes as part of a wider regional expansion plan.

The details: The project covers zones 3, 15, and 17 of Sultan Haitham City across 1.3 mn sqm. Retal will serve as lead developer for the community, which will feature more than 2k villas and apartments alongside commercial and mixed-use facilities. It will develop the project under an off-plan sales model over an estimated nine years, with financial impact expected from 2027.

The expansion comes as Retal navigates squeezed financials. Despite a 1.8% y-o-y rise in revenue to SAR 577.4 mn in 1Q 2026 from real estate funds and accelerated project completions, net income fell 12.9% y-o-y to SAR 59.3 mn, according to a separate filing. A dip in operating income weighed on the bottom line, along with lower contributions from equity-accounted investment.

Why it matters: The Oman project gives Retal a foothold in a flagship Omani “smart city” gigaproject, positioning it in a market that may be less cost-pressured than Saudi Arabia. The nine-year development effectively acts as a relief valve amid tightening margins. More favorable land-concession terms and financing conditions in Oman could support healthier economics compared to the highly competitive, high-cost Riyadh market.

Retal is still busy back home: The developer is reportedly moving to take full control of Adjan Real Estate in a cashless all-share acquisition that values the target at SAR 1.86 bn. Late last year, it launched an SAR 1.9 bn real estate fund with Sab Invest to build a mixed-use project in Riyadh, and was awarded an SAR 5.2 bn housing development contract by The National Housing Company.

Earnings galore

Al Othaim stumbles on markdowns, changing consumer behavior

Abdullah Al Othaim Markets reported a nearly 30% y-o-y drop in 1Q 2026 net income to SAR 53.7 mn, according to a Tadawul disclosure. Revenues for the quarter came in just under SAR 3 bn, down 5.8% y-o-y.

Behind the numbers: Higher operating costs across sales channels outweighed improved gross margins, stronger associate contributions, and higher finance lease income. Revenue was pressured by weaker branch sales amid shifting consumer behavior, while promotional cashback campaigns and supply-chain disruptions linked to the rollout of a new ERP system also weighed on performance.

Jarir Marketing’s sales boom

Upticks in retail demand helped Jarir Marketing weather rising operational costs in 1Q 2026, with the company posting a 16.7% y-o-y increase in net income to SAR 253.5 mn supported by a 14.4% y-o-y rise in revenue eto SAR 3 bn, according to its Tadawul disclosure.

Behind the numbers:The jump in sales across most sections, but especially smartphones, was enough to absorb a rise in selling and marketing, general and administrative, and non-operating expenses.

Dividends: Jarir’s board greenlit a SAR 252 mn dividend payout for 1Q 2026, equivalent to SAR 0.21 per share, to be distributed by Wednesday, 20 May, according to a separate disclosure.

Sasco suffers despite stronger sales

Sasco’s rising costs offset robust sales and investment earnings. Saudi Automotive Services (Sasco) turned to the red with a net loss of SAR 23.7 mn in 1Q 2026, compared to a net income of SAR 4.3 mn in the same period last year, according to its Tadawul disclosure. Still, revenue increased by 9.5% y-o-y to SAR 3 bn.

The decline was driven by higher cost of sales, elevated ECL, lower other income, and higher financing and zakat expenses — partially offset by stronger sales, gains on investment properties, greater investment income, and lower G&A and selling and marketing costs.

The company expanded its operations across the Kingdom. Sasco’s network grew 15% to 716 stations, and expanded its palm stores by 52% y-o-y to 324 stores, according to a separate press release (pdf).

Flynas’ net income falls despite higher revenue in 1Q

Capacity growth supported Flynas’ top line, but rising costs weighed on profitability. The low-cost carrier saw its net income fall 20.3% y-o-y to SAR 117.9 mn in 1Q 2026, according to its financial release. Revenue rose 9.7% y-o-y to SAR 2 bn during the same period, buoyed by capacity expansion and continued passenger demand across the airline’s network.

Behind the numbers: The bottom-line dip was driven by higher fuel costs, alongside increased handling and navigation charges, elevated maintenance expenses from greater operating activity, and additional wet-lease costs.

Acquisitions pay off for BinDawood

A push into high-margin segments powered earnings for retail giant BinDawood Holding in 1Q 2026. Net income increased 8.4% y-o-y to SAR 71.3 mn, absorbing higher finance costs tied to recent acquisitions and new lease obligations, while revenue rose 8.2% y-o-y to SAR 1.81 bn, it said in a Tadawul disclosure and earnings release (pdf).

Growth came from several acquired and expanding fronts this quarter. BinDawood and Danube grocery stores benefited from stronger customer engagement and loyalty campaigns, while the pharmacy business continued expanding following the acquisition of Zahrat Al Rawdah. Distribution also picked up pace after the integration of Toy Triangle and the addition of brands including Samsung, while the tech arm kept growing through Ykone’s acquisition of Mirror Mirror. So far in 2026, the group has opened three new grocery stores and eight pharmacy locations.

More takeovers in the pipeline: The acquisitions of Vaza Foods Company and the UAE’s Wonder Bakery are both expected to close by the end of 2Q 2026, which will form a new food processing division.

Dividends:The company’s board signed off on an SAR 45.7 mn dividend payout for 2H 2025 at SAR 0.04 apiece, to be distributed on 21 June.

Regional tension, margin squeeze push Cenomi Retail into the red

Cenomi Retail swung to a net loss of SAR 47.3 mn in 1Q 2026 as geopolitical tension and a softer Ramadan season weighed on its domestic operations, according to an earnings release (pdf). While revenue grew 2.4% y-o-y to SAR 1.4 bn, the bottom line was hit by promotional intensity, rising logistics costs, and the absence of a one-off divestment gain recorded the previous year.

International markets remained a bright spot, with revenue climbing 15.4% y-o-y to SAR 347.8 mn, powered by nearly 20% like-for-like growth in Inditex brands abroad. Domestic conditions were tougher, with Saudi revenues down 0.4% y-o-y on the back of Ramadan’s earlier timing and the war’s effect on Zara and Inditex’s performance.

The breakdown: Zara and other core fashion brands saw their sales dip 7.1% amid geopolitical pressure — a 20.8% jump in electronics, beauty, and sports revenues helped cushion the blow. The F&B division also saw revenues slip 12.9% following the exit of several brands and temporary raw material shortages linked to the war’s disruption of shipments.

Some benefits from a leaner footprint: Despite the headline loss, the group improved store productivity, with revenue per store rising 13.5% y-o-y as the group trimmed its network to 730 stores, focusing on higher-performing locations. Online sales also held steady, reaching SAR 117 mn.

Looking ahead: Cenomi expects a progressive recovery in earnings throughout 2026, supported by operational tightening and selective expansion in projects like Westfield Riyadh and Jeddah.

Dallah Healthcare sees lower income despite revenue growth

Dallah Healthcare kicked off 1Q 2026 with a mixed performance, with strong revenue growth on one side and a sharp drop in net income on the other, according to a Tadawul disclosure and an earnings release (pdf). Net income fell 45.7% y-o-y to SAR 84.5 mn, while revenues grew 21.7% y-o-y to SAR 1 bn. The gap largely came down to a SAR 51 mn one-off investment gain recorded during 1Q 2025. Strip that out, and the underlying picture looks steadier.

Operationally, Dallah looks healthy. Patient visits rose 27.5% to 936k, driven mainly by the integration of Dallah Al Khobar and Dallah Al Ahsa hospitals. The Central Region continued to do the heavy lifting, reinforcing its role as the group’s core growth engine.

The breakdown:By segment, medical facility services remained the biggest revenue contributor at SAR 748 mn, while pharma sales added SAR 225 mn. That mix of revenue streams helped soften the usual seasonal slowdown during the school holidays and Eid Al Fitr.

Dividends:The healthcare group is distributing SAR 50.5 mn in dividends for the first quarter at SAR 0.5 apiece on 4 June.

A tough 1Q for Arabian Drilling

Arabian Drilling’s net income plunged 90.6% y-o-y to SAR 7.1 mn in 1Q 2026, as rig suspensions and the absence of last year’s rig movement weighed on results, according to a disclosure. Revenue dipped 9.8% y-o-y to SAR 821.6 mn as operations were hit by lower utilization — which fell to 81.7% from 83.3% a year prior — with some offshore rigs temporarily suspended amid geopolitical tensions, according to a press release (pdf).

Backlog builds despite near-term softness: Despite the domestic drag, the group’s backlog grew 31% y-o-y to SAR 12.5 bn. Arabian Drilling secured three major land contract extensions during the quarter, and is awaiting the outcome of an 11-rig gas LSTK tender with SLB, expected in 2Q this year, alongside a three-month extension for the related rigs. The company also started its first drilling operation outside the Kingdom in April.

The forward view: Performance is expected to remain under pressure in the near term, with 2Q revenues projected to decline by up to 12% due to the ongoing offshore suspensions. Consequently, full-year capex has been revised down to SAR 700 mn.

But the medium-term outlook is cautiously optimistic: “While near-term dynamics related to offshore suspensions may temporarily constrain performance, we expect margin progression to resume as activity levels normalize,” CFO Farid Mustafayev said.

Red Sea back in black despite topline slip

Red Sea International swung back into the black in 1Q 2026, posting a net income of SAR 2.5 mn, up from a net loss of SAR 11.2 mn in the same quarter last year, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. Revenue dropped around 10% y-o-y to SAR 631 mn during the quarter on the back of slower execution of projects.

Nawaf AlOtaibi named CEO of Altea Partners Saudi Arabia

London-based merchant bank Altea Partners appointed Nawaf AlOtaibi (LinkedIn) as CEO of its Saudi arm, which is being set up in partnership with a local investment holding company and will operate onshore once regulatory approvals are secured, according to a press release. AlOtaibi joins from BSF Capital, where he most recently headed wealth management.

IN CONTEXT- Altea Partners’ expansion is part of a broader trend of global financial institutions establishing a footprint in Saudi Arabia. HSBC secured a regional headquarters license for its capital markets hub in December, joining Goldman Sachs — the first major bank to do so — Citigroup, Morgan Stanley, and JPMorgan. Barclays is also pushing for a 2026 launch.

More real estate for Baan

Baan Holding acquired real estate assets worth SAR 830.1 mn from Al Hokair Holding Group and Al Oula Real Estate Development, following approval from its general assembly and a related capital increase, it said in a Tadawul disclosure. The two transactions have been settled by issuing new ordinary shares to Al Hokair and companies designated by Al Oula.

The breakdown: Baan acquired three hotels in Riyadh and Jeddah from Al Hokair — DoubleTree by Hilton Riyadh, Radisson Blu Corniche Jeddah, and Holiday Inn Jeddah Gateway — for SAR 651.6 mn and 239.4 mn new shares. From Al Oula, it acquired 86 residential units in the Ajdan Waterfront project in Al Khobar valued at SAR 178.5 mn, with 65.6 mn shares issued to Awj Al Mada Real Estate Development, Awj Al Majal Co., and Awj Al Shati Co.

As a result of the transaction, Baan’s share capital rises 96.8% to SAR 620 mn, alongside a share premium of SAR 525.2 mn.

Riyad Capital is cooking up a USD 400 mn real estate fund

Riyad Capital is setting up a USD 400 mn (SAR 1.5 bn) real estate fund with Princess Munira Al Saud and Naif AlRajhi Investment to develop a mixed-use project in Riyadh, according to a press release. The project spans 32k sqm and will include hospitality, office, residential, and retail components. Classified as a “transit-oriented development” near Al Takhassusi metro station, it marks Riyad Capital’s fourth such project.

Aramco’s bypass operation

The world's largest oil company delivered the clearest earnings argument yet for why redundancy is key in a chokepoint world. Aramco’s 1Q numbers landed with a surge that, under geopolitical assumptions, should have been a war-disrupted miss — instead, the company earned more than ExxonMobil, Chevron, Shell, and BP combined.

The chokepoint premium

The numbers and narratives: The company reported USD 32.5 bn in net income — up 25% y-o-y and 34% q-o-q — ahead of LSEG consensus estimate of USD 30.95 bn, even as traffic through the Strait of Hormuz, which carries 20% of the world's energy trade, faced severe disruption during the first quarter.

The explanation lies in infrastructure designed decades ago for a contingency scenario. The East-West Pipeline, which ramped up to its full 7 mn bbl / d capacity during the quarter (5 mn bbl / d for exports and 2 mn bbl / d for west coast refineries), allowed crude to bypass Hormuz entirely, and “has proven itself to be a critical supply artery, helping to mitigate the impact of a global energy shock and providing relief to customers affected by shipping constraints,” CEO Amin Nasser said in Aramco’s earnings statement (pdf). In a conventional oil market, spare infrastructure drags on returns. In today’s market, it manufactures them.

The scale of the inversion is striking. Iran's blockade of Hormuz removed nearly 1 bn barrels from global markets over the past two months, according to Nasser, with Brent climbing through the quarter and now trading above USD 100. Aramco itself absorbed direct attacks on energy infrastructure, with throughput restored within days. The Saudi giant still raised revenue to USD 124 bn, held a USD 21.9 bn dividend, and preserved supply reliability at 96.3% — largely by rerouting flows through the pipeline and its storage network.

The optionality trade

Energy markets have long priced producers on efficiency — output growth, reserve life, refining margins, and capital discipline — treating redundancy as a drag. That logic is shifting as geopolitics moves into core pricing. Physical redundancy — pipelines, storage, and alternative export routes — is being re-rated as optionality. Call it the chokepoint premium: the value markets assign to a producer's ability to physically deliver barrels under stress, not just to produce them cheaply.

This quarter suggests the early stages of a broader repricing. In a market dominated by chokepoint risk, the survivability of export pathways is becoming as important as upstream economics.

That shift is beginning to surface across the region. Egypt's Sumed pipeline — long regarded as legacy infrastructure following shifts in global crude trade flows — has regained relevance amid tensions, operating near full capacity for the first time in years because it offers something markets are discovering they are short on: optionality. Adnoc’s Abu Dhabi Crude Oil Pipeline from Habshan to Fujairah carries the same premium on a smaller scale, with a nameplate capacity of 1.5-1.8 mn bbl / d.

The K-shape, in barrels

The same shock that made redundant producers richer is destabilizing dependent importers. India has already recorded more than USD 20 bn in equity outflows this year as higher oil prices collided with one of the world’s largest import bills. Across South Asia, Sri Lanka has reintroduced subsidy mechanisms, alongside seeking IMF relief, while Pakistan entered the shock with low foreign reserves and is grappling to cover imports.

Egypt’s financing conditions also tightened — as Gulf war risks pushed credit default swaps (CDS) spreads higher and regional debt markets cooled, with MENA’s bond issuance falling 12% y-o-y in 1Q. The same shock that turned spare infrastructure into a strategic asset is turning emerging-market borrowers without it into a credit risk.

Months, or 2027?

The timeline depends entirely on Hormuz. Nasser told Bloomberg that a quick reopening could mean recovery within months; anything beyond a few more weeks would push normalization into 2027. For producers with the right alternatives, next year looks less like a downside scenario and more like a structural feature. For importers without fiscal cover, it may be the year when temporary repricing becomes permanent.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets opened in the green this morning, echoing gains seen on Wall Street that pushed both the S&P 500 and Nasdaq to close at record highs. Market momentum is underpinned by a wave of solid US earnings, which have managed to insulate investor sentiment even as the US-Iran ceasefire remains on “life support.”

TASI	11,158	+0.4% (YTD: +6.4%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,493	+0.2% (YTD: +7.6%)
NomuC	22,635	0.0% (YTD: -2.8%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	4.25% repo	3.75% reverse repo
EGX30	54,475	-0.3% (YTD: +30.2%)
ADX	9,788	-0.5% (YTD: -2.1%)
DFM	5,820	-1.4% (YTD: -3.8%)
S&P 500	7,413	+0.2% (YTD: +8.3%)
FTSE 100	10,269	+0.4% (YTD: +3.4%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,895	-0.3% (YTD: +1.7%)
Brent crude	USD 104.21	+2.9%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.92	+0.4%
Gold	USD 4,749	+0.4%
BTC	USD 81,864	-0.2% (YTD: -6.6%)
Sukuk/bond market index	922.56	+0.3% (YTD: +0.4%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	151.88	-0.1% (YTD: 0.0%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	18.38	+6.9% (YTD: +22.9%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI rose 0.4% yesterday on turnover of SAR 7.7 bn. The index is up 6.4% YTD.

In the green: Sadafco (+10.0%), Almarai (+10.0%), and Nadec (+9.1%).

In the red: Jahez (-7.1%), Senaat (-3.4%), and Dallah Healthcare (-3.1%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC was flat yesterday on turnover of SAR 30.9 mn. The index is down 2.8% YTD.

In the green: Naas Petrol (+10.0%), Naseej for Technology (+8.5%), and Alshehili Metal (+7.0%).

In the red: Sahat Almajd (-9.4%), Wajd Life (-7.8%), and Osool and Bakheet (-7.7%).

CALENDAR

MAY

24-28 May (Sunday-Thursday): Eid Al Adha holiday.

JUNE

15-17 June (Monday-Wednesday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh Front Expo.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Print & Pack, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Riyadh International Industry Week, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Plastics & Petrochem, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

22-24 June (Monday-Wednesday): The Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

JULY

6 July-23 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

AUGUST

30 August-1 September (Sunday-Tuesday): The Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

31 August-3 September (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center - Malham.

SEPTEMBER

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

28 September-1 October (Monday-Thursday): The International Conference on Theory and Practice of Electronic Governance (ICEGOV), Prince Sultan University, Riyadh.

OCTOBER

12-15 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): ACHEMA Middle East, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

NOVEMBER

25-29 November (Wednesday-Sunday): Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun, Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2H: Sabic’s USD 6.4 bn Fujian project in China to start production;
September: Saudi Paper and Packaging Expo, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center;
November: The UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia;
November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh;
The World Economic Forum’s Global Collaboration and Growth Meeting, Jeddah;
SkyMove Air Cargo MENA, Riyadh;
The Intervision international music competition will take place in Saudi Arabia.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh;
The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed;
Capital Markets Forum takes place in March in Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

2027

FEBRUARY

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): Energy Regulators Regional Association annual conference, Riyadh.

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