Non-oil activity slightly accelerates in May, backed by strong new order growth

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Digital bank D360 is reportedly looking for investors in 2H 2025 + Dome cancels Nomu IPO

Good morning, ladies and gents. Today is the last day of the workweek before we all take a break for Eid Al Adha. Private and public sector workers, as well as banks and the Saudi Exchange, will be off starting tomorrow.

PROGRAMMING NOTE- That includes us too at EnterpriseAM Saudi, who will also be taking a break from your inboxes for the Eid break, but we’ll be back bright and early next Wednesday.

Leading this morning’s news well: Non-oil activity slightly accelerated in May, Flynas’ retail offering was 3.5x covered, and Abdul Latif Jameel is mulling distributing Joby’s electric aircraft in the Kingdom. Let’s dive in.

WEATHER- Riyadh is expected to see a high of 40°C and a low of 27°C today, while Jeddah’s mercury will go as high as 34°C and as low as 26°C. Makkah will see a 40°C high and 29°C low.

HAPPENING NEXT WEEK-

Anmat Technology for Trading is set to begin trading on Tadawul’s parallel market Nomu on Wednesday, 11 June, according to a statement. The company is putting 11.6% up for grabs in an offering that was nearly 3x oversubscribed by qualified investors earlier this week.

The company’s shares will be allowed to fluctuate within a 30% band, with a static fluctuation band of 10% on the first three trading days. Starting from the fourth day, shares will be allowed to trade at a 10% volatility as circuit breakers take effect, and the static fluctuation limit will be removed.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

PIF-backed digital bank D360 is in early talks with potential investors for a Series A funding round expected in 2H 2025, aiming for closure by early 2026 to expand its SME services, CEO Eze Szafir told Bloomberg. This follows a previous raise of about USD 500 mn from existing investors like the PIF and Derayah Financial.

The fundraising is being led by new CFO Mohammed Nazer (LinkedIn), formerly of JPMorgan, with plans to appoint banks for the Series A by the end of July.

Looking ahead: The bank is gearing up to launch comprehensive lending services for individuals and businesses later this year, after it received permission from the Saudi Central Bank to kick off its operations last December. The digital bank aims to serve 4 mn users, up from over 1 mn users currently, before a potential public listing in four years.

The Neom Green Hydrogen Company’s (NGHC) Oxagon mega plant is 80% complete, including the green hydrogen facility, wind garden, solar farm, and transmission grid, it said in a post on Instagram. The Acwa Power-Air Products-Neom JV is currently installing key equipment, including wind turbines, hydrogen storage vessels, electrolyzers, the cold box, and pipe racks.

Timeline and targets: The company aims to produce some 4 GW of solar and wind power by mid-2026 and start ammonia production sometime in 2027. When fully operational, the facility is touted to become the world's largest green hydrogen plant, producing up to 600 tons of carbon-free hydrogen daily.

REMEMBER- NGHC is reportedly pivoting to the local market after co-developer Air Products faced a slowdown in securing international buyers, despite an initial commitment to purchase all output for resale.

The Riyadh-based school operator Dome International for Investment's planned Nomu IPO has been cancelled, and subscribers received refunds yesterday, according to a disclosure to Tadawul from financial advisor Watheeq Capital. No details were provided on the reasons for cancellation.

BACKGROUND- The company was set to float some 850k new shares — 14.53% of its post-IPO capital — at SAR 43 apiece on Tadawul’s parallel market Nomu. The subscription window was pushed back from 26 May to 1 June.

OIL WATCH-

Riyadh, Moscow clash over Opec+ output: Saudi Arabia and Russia were reportedly at odds during Opec+’s meeting on Saturday before reaching a compromise to raise oil production by 411k bbl / d, Reuters reported, citing four sources it said are close to the negotiations. The last major policy clash between the two came in 2020, when all Opec+ members flooded the market, sending prices into a tailspin.

Unlike earlier decisions, Saturday’s meeting was marked by sharper internal divisions, sources told the newswire. The Kingdom lobbied for a higher output hike than the agreed 411k bbl / d, frustrated by overproduction from violators like Iraq and Kazakhstan in recent months. But Russia, backed by Oman and Algeria, opposed any acceleration in output, warning that demand may not be strong enough to absorb the extra barrels, the sources added.

Diverging capacities and constraints: Saudi Arabia holds the largest spare production capacity in the group and is well-positioned to ramp up output and seize market share. Russia, on the other hand, is facing declining spare capacity due to underinvestment and Western sanctions, which have limited its ability to sell to refiners outside friendly markets.

By the numbers: Opec+ has boosted its output by 1.37 mn bbl / d so far this year. However, the group maintains nearly 4.5 mn bbl / d in production cuts, established over the last five years to bolster the market, which represents around 4.5% of global demand, according to Reuters calculations.

SPORTS-

Inzaghi in Saudi? Head coach Simone Inzaghi has left Inter Milan and is expected to join Al Hilal, the New York Times reported. The 49-year-old is said to have received a “transformational” offer from Al Hilal, with some reports putting the value of the contract at over EUR 25 mn.

If he takes up the offer, Inzaghi will succeed Jorge Jesus who left in May by mutual consent, days after the team’s semifinal loss to Al Ahli in the AFC Champions League.

ALSO- Bruno Fernandes turned down a substantial offer from Al Hilal that would have reportedly doubled his current salary at Manchester United, BBC reports, citing statements from the player before Portugal's Nations League semi-final against Germany in Munich on Wednesday.

The Riyadh-based club was reportedly ready to spend up to GBP 100 mn for the 30-year-old midfielder and captain, but the Reds never received a formal bid.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

No one story is dominating the world’s digital front pages this morning, but one personality is — and I think you know who. On day 135 of Trump’s second term, his administration is once again turning up the heat on trade partners, sending out letters this week to trade partners, demanding that they submit their best tariff offers by today — or risk the return of sweeping duties next month with the end of the 90-day trade war pause. So far, only a limited agreement with the UK has been reached, while talks with the EU, India, Vietnam, and other nations drag on. (Bloomberg | Reuters)

Also headlining many of the world's press outlets is Elon Musk’s chaotic split with this former boss at the White House. Despite Musk’s claims to be standing back from politics, it seems he can’t quite resist the limelight, taking to X to issue a fiery tirade torching Trump’s signature tax-and-spend bill as a “disgusting abomination” and a “pork-filled” disaster. “It will massively increase the already gigantic budget deficit to USD 2.5 tn,” Trump’s former bn’aire backer said, adding that it will lead to “crushingly unsustainable debt.” (Associated Press | Guardian | Financial Times)

Saudi Arabia’s non-oil activity slightly accelerates in May, backed by strong new order growth

Non-oil business activity in the Kingdom accelerated in May, driven by an expansion in new work that took place amid improvements in demand and improved business sentiment, according to the Riyad Bank Saudi Arabia PMI (pdf). The seasonally adjusted headline figure came in at 55.8 in May, up slightly from 55.6 in April.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background and outside sources.)

New orders rose substantially during the month: The new orders subindex rose to 62.5 in May, up from 58.6 in April, breaking a three-month spell of decline for the subindex, according to Reuters. The new orders index was the only subcomponent to raise the PMI in May, with businesses linking this to “increased demand, strong sales performances, industrial development and new marketing initiatives,” the report reads.

Output levels were not quite as positive, however: The pace of output growth eased to its softest level since September 2024, according to the report. Of the surveyed sectors, construction recorded the greatest hikes in both activity and new business.

Employment levels continued to increase in the Kingdom, with the month seeing one of the fastest rises in staffing in over a decade. “Hiring momentum remained strong as companies expanded teams to support output growth, particularly in operations and sales,” Riyad Bank Chief Economist Naif Al Ghaith said.

Purchasing activity also continued to rise, accelerating to a 14-month high despite “greater caution towards stockpiling,” according to the report.

This came in tandem with a rise in input prices, albeit at a slower pace than the previous month, with the slowdown coming due to subdued wage pressures. However, output prices fell in May, as competitive market conditions led to a sharp decrease in service sector charges, “contrasting with rising prices in manufacturing, construction and wholesale & retail,” National Bank of Kuwait's Issa Hijazeen told EnterpriseAM.

The future’s looking bright for Saudi businesses: “Looking ahead, sentiment among non-oil firms has strengthened visibly. Business expectations looking forward reached their highest level since late 2023. Hiring momentum remained strong as companies expanded teams to support output growth, particularly in operations and sales,” Al Ghaith said.

Flynas’ retail offering 3.5x covered, set to be largest IPO since Aramco

Flynas saw the retail tranche of its SAR 4.1 bn IPO 3.5x covered, according to a statement (pdf). Individual investors booked 10.3 mn, or 20%, of the total shares on offer, lining up at least 10 pieces each. The books are now closed on the budget air carrier’s main market IPO after it wrapped up final allocations.

ICYMI- Flynas priced its IPO at SAR 80 a piece, the top of the range it was guiding on, after its institutional offering saw overwhelming demand. The larger tranche of the IPO — in which the PIF-backed airline is taking a 30% stake to Tadawul — was 100x oversubscribed.

Investor appetite is buoyed by a positive macro narrative and a solid financial and operational pitch. The travel and tourism sector is expected to contribute 10% or higher to GDP this year. The Tourism Ministry is targeting 150 mn tourist trips by 2030, up from around 104 mn trips in 2023.

ALSO- Flynas’ net income inched down 1% y-o-y to SAR 148 mn in 1Q 2025, reflecting a baseline effect driven by a non-recurring gain in the previous year, Al Arabiya reports. Revenues rose 6% y-o-y to SAR 1.8 bn. The company also recorded the lowest complaint rate among Saudi carriers in April.

Third ever airline IPO in the GCC: This is going to be the region’s first IPO of a major airline since 2008 and only the third-ever carrier to list in the GCC after Air Arabia and Jazeera Airway, beating Abu Dhabi’s Etihad Airways to market.

…and the biggest Saudi IPO since Aramco: The SAR 4.1 bn offering is the Kingdom’s largest so far this year, outpacing Umm Al Qura for Development (SAR 2 bn) and Almoosa Health (SAR 1.7 bn). It also ranks as the highest-grossing Saudi IPO since Aramco’s stellar USD 29.4 bn debut in 2019.

Aircraft delays could pose a problem for the airliner: Flynas may still be facing some hurdles from ongoing aircraft supply chain disruptions, as Airbus, its primary supplier, has warned airlines of delivery delays up to three years due to shortages in engines and components. While Flynas has not reported any specific setbacks, it has over 160 aircraft on order in a transaction valued at USD 30 bn through 2030, potentially exposing it to the industry-wide bottlenecks.

ADVISORS- Goldman Sachs Saudi Arabia, BSF Capital, and Morgan Stanley Saudi Arabia are joint financial advisors and underwriters. BSF Capital is also serving as lead manager. Bookrunners include Emirates NBD Capital KSA, Goldman Sachs Saudi Arabia, Al Rajhi Capital, BSF Capital, Citigroup Saudi Arabia, NAB Capital, and Morgan Stanley Saudi Arabia. Receiving agents include BSF Capital, Al Rajhi Capital, SNB Capital, and Riyad Capital, among others.

ALSO IN THE PIPELINE-

Specialized Medical Company (SMC) retail subscription will kick off later this month;
Companies that have yet to move to the step beyond receiving CMA approval include Ejada Systems, Marketing Home Group, Sport Clubs Company, and Dar Al Majed ;
Companies that tapped banks for potential IPOs include the PIF’s Saudi Global Ports, Tabreed District Cooling, Medical procurement firm Nupco, Riyad Capital, and BNPL platform Tabby ;
Alramz Real Estate and Al Othaim Investment announced plans to float a 30% stake on Tadawul this year;
F&B players Barns, Half Million, Deemah, and Hashi Bashi are said to be sounding out banks for potential debuts on the main market;
Almosafer is preparing for a public listing on Tadawul by late 2025 or early 2026;
PIF-backed CloudKitchens is reportedly eyeing an IPO in the Kingdom or the UAE (or both);
Meal subscription startup Calo is also said to be eyeing an IPO here at home by 2027.

Abdul Latif Jameel mulls distributing Joby’s electric aircraft in the Kingdom

Abdul Latif Jameel eyes eVTOL distribution: Abdul Latif Jameel Group has inked an MoU with US-based Joby Aviation to explore a potential agreement to distribute the company’s electric aircraft in the Kingdom, according to a press release. The move could see the delivery of up to 200 aircrafts valued at around USD 1 bn in the coming years.

The initial phase of the partnership will focus on assessing local market demand in the Kingdom, with the two firms set to explore cooperation on aircraft distribution, sales, and the launch of domestic air taxi services.

The partnership would also cover establishing supporting infrastructure, such as maintenance, repair, and overhaul facilities, alongside pilot training programs.

Joby is not a stranger: The company was reportedly planning to expand into the Saudi market after it signed a MoU with Aramco aviation subsidiary Mukamalah last year. Joby also plans to carry its first passengers in Dubai in 2026, after initially targeting the end of this year.

About Joby: The company among a handful of players developing electric vertical takeoff and landing (eVTOL) aircraft for short-range passenger trips. Joby's fully electric, piloted aircraft can carry four passengers and cruise at speeds of up to 200 mph. The aircraft is powered entirely by batteries, offering a zero-emissions alternative.

Time Entertainment’s IPO was 1.4x oversubscribed, ahead of listing on Nomu

Event organizer Time Entertainment’s Nomu IPO was 1.4x covered by qualified investors, driving the firm to price its offering at SAR 80 per share — the top of the range it was guiding on, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. The company is floating a 20% stake in a secondary offering on the parallel market. While final allocations wrapped up yesterday, there’s still no word on when Time Entertainment’s shares will start trading on Nomu.

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Proceeds + market cap: The final price will see the firm’s four selling shareholders rake in SAR 16 mn in IPO proceeds (minus SAR 2.4 mn in IPO-related expenses), implying a market cap of SAR 80 mn at listing. Their shares will remain on lockup for 12 months from the first day of trading.

ADVISORS- Al Khair Capital is quarterbacking the transaction as financial advisor and lead manager. Alsaleh, Alsahli & Partners Law Firm is serving as legal advisor with RSM as the bookrunner. Receiving agents include Derayah Financial, Albilad Capital, Alkhabeer Capital, AlJazira Capital, ANB Capital, BSF Capital, Alinma Capital, GIB Capital, Alistithmar Capital, Riyad Capital, SAB Invest, Yaqeen Capital, Sahm Capital and SNB Capital.

REMEMBER- Most of the recent Nomu debuts are still trading below their IPO price: Axelerated Solutions saw its share price fall 3% on its first trading day, while Dkhoun National also dropped 19.8% at debut and Service Equipment Company declined 10%. Future Vision for Health Training also shed 5.3% on its first trading day. All of these companies are still trading below their IPO price.

ALSO IN THE PIPELINE-

Naf for Feed and Industries recently issued a prospectus to float a 20% stake;
Hawiya Auctions ’s secondary offering was 3x oversubscribed;
Al Khaldi Logistics was the latest to price their Nomu IPOs;
Meanwhile, Qudra for Communications and IT, the National Signage Industrial Company, medical equipment supplier Wajd, and property developer Hammad Mohammed Bin Saedan Real Estate were given the CMA’s all-clear to list on the parallel market.

More than half of Saudis are optimistic about the economy -Oliver Wyman

More than half of Saudi consumers are bullish about the economy, with 56% of 3.5k survey respondents showing optimism, and only 17% expressing pessimism, according to a 2024 survey (pdf) by US management consulting firm Oliver Wyman.

Half of the respondents reported increasing confidence in the economy, while 19% said their confidence had declined. Younger consumers, aged 18 to 29, were less optimistic than the general population, with only 49% of them expressing optimism.

Consumer spending is rising faster than income growth, with 41% of respondents reporting a decline in their savings. Consequently, consumers are inclined to save more, with 39% planning to cut back on food, 38% planning to spend less on entertainment and home furnishings, and 37% aiming to buy fewer electronics.

When it comes to buying decisions, price is the main factor: Price emerged as the top factor across most categories, led by entertainment (cited by 33% of respondents), followed by groceries (31%), dining out (29%), home and furniture (28%), and electronics (25%). Quality followed closely, particularly in groceries (according to 34% of respondents) and electronics and dining out (27% each), while promotion of discounts came close behind, especially in electronics, fashion, and entertainment. Brand reputation, convenience, and customer service ranked lower in importance.

Brick and mortar stores are still Saudis’ top choice, especially when it comes to groceries (66%), home and furniture (47%), dining out (46%), and fashion (37%). Online shopping, however, leads in electronics, with 45% of respondents preferring it, followed by fashion (44%) and entertainment (34%).

Some market wisdom: To help retailers stay competitive, the report recommends blending affordability and quality through smarter assortments, off-price models, targeted promotions, and private labels. A broader strategy should also include cost-efficient operations, reinvestment in personalization and tech upgrades, and the use of AI and automation.

CMA rolls out a new offshore securities business license

Capital market institutions will soon be able to offer securities services outside Saudi Arabia and manage investments in local assets, under a new offshore securities business license currently up for public consultation. The draft framework (pdf), published by the Capital Market Authority (CMA), is open for feedback until 28 June and is part of ongoing efforts to position the Kingdom as a global financial hub.

A streamlined track: The framework outlines capital requirements, registration conditions, and financial adequacy standards, while also defining restrictions on how licenses holders are expected to operate.

What’s on the table: License holders will be able to conduct securities activities offshore, manage funds investing in Saudi securities, and offer services to international clients and a defined category of local investors.

Who’s eligible? Both local and international firms can apply, provided they have a head office in the Kingdom, and operate through a regional headquarters licensed by the Investment Ministry.

Why it matters: The new license is set to shake up domestic capital markets by allowing local and international firms to operate beyond the Kingdom’s borders. Previously, capital market players were mostly confined to domestic activities and faced stricter regulatory requirements. This license, tied to the Investment Ministry’s regional headquarters program, cuts through red tape with more flexible capital and operational requirements.

For investors, it could mean more diverse offerings, greater access to regional and international markets, and a boost in the volume and variety of assets under management.

United Cooperative Assurance taps Shaher Al Madani as CEO

United Cooperative Assurance (UAC) appointed Shaher Al Madani (LinkedIn) as CEO, after Mohammed Basrawi (LinkedIn) stepped down for retirement, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. Al Madani has been with the company since 2018, most recently serving as Deputy CEO for over two years, having previously held roles including COO.

Gaca + Sab grab key awards

The General Authority of Civil Aviation (Gaca) received two gold awards from ContactCenterWorld — Best Public Services and Best In Customer Service in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa (EMEA) — it said in a statement. For the second year in a row, Gaca’s customer care center gained recognition from the ContactCenterWorld conference, which was held this year in Berlin between 27-29 May.

In numbers: Gaca’s customer care center handled over 82k interactions in 1Q 2025 through various channels, including phone, email, WhatsApp, X, its website, and sign language, maintaining an average response time of 18 seconds.

Saudi Awwal Bank (Sab) received the Best Innovation in Operational Excellence award at the Operational Excellence Awards Middle East 2025, part of the Customer Experience Live Show in Dubai that took place on 13 May, Saudi Gazette reports. The recognition highlights Sab’s Ops2.0 Transformation Program, which helped standardize and digitize end-to-end processes, enhance employee capabilities, and embed data-driven decision-making across operations.

Saudi investment appeal under scrutiny amid Gulf investment race

Saudi Arabia’s intricate balance between local projects and global investments is getting increasing interest from the foreign press, as Bloomberg reports some bankers reassess the Kingdom’s foreign investments appeal. The caution contrasts with previous years when top global financiers frequently visited Riyadh, the business information service argued.

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The reported reassessment follows USD tns of pledged Gulf investments to the US during US President Donald Trump’s tour of the region, during which the Kingdom announced large-scale investment commitments, initially USD 300 bn and upped later to USD 1 tn.

Bloomberg spoke to some skeptics over Saudi Arabia’s ability to finance its large investment pledge, seeing it as aspirational or prone to cutbacks. Karen Young of Columbia University’s Center on Global Energy Policy saw the Saudi pledge as harder to meet, given its domestic priorities to wean off oil and fund Vision 2030.

Our neighbors committed to larger tickets: Qatar (USD 1.2 tn) and the UAE (USD 1.4 tn) made proportionally larger US commitments than Saudi Arabia, leveraging greater fiscal headroom from smaller populations and lower domestic spending needs.

“The Emiratis and Qataris can realistically offer US and global businesses more compelling incentives over a longer timeframe,” Robert Mogielnicki from the Arab Gulf States Institute told Bloomberg. Meanwhile, “the Saudi government must carefully weigh the concerns and needs of local citizens against foreign interests,” he added.

Saudi has more to juggle: Unlike our Gulf peers who invest surplus capital abroad, Saudi Arabia needs foreign capital for its own spending on domestic projects and local absorption capacity, said Rachel Ziemba of the Center for a New American Security.

Bloomberg highlighted the Kingdom’s increasing bond issuance as it tries to manage its budget deficit, having raised over USD 14 bn this year — excluding PIF and Aramco sales. Bankers in Saudi Arabia are now focusing more on arranging bonds and loans — with the kingdom becoming the top emerging market sovereign bond issuer — rather than advising on outbound M&A

While local listings and PIF M&A keep investment bankers active, diversification plans increasingly prioritize partnerships with asset managers to develop its domestic financial markets rather than to fund global ventures, Bloomberg argued.

GameChange Solar to double manufacturing capacity to 6 GW annually

ENERGY-

GCS to double manufacturing capacity to 6GW annually: US-based high-performance trackers, racking, and BOS systems manufacturer GameChange Solar (GCS) plans to double its manufacturing capacity in Saudi Arabia to 6 GW annually by September 2025, it said in a press release. “This expansion gives us the capacity to move faster on the large-scale projects coming up in the region,” VP Jason Wang said.

ICYMI- GCS and Chinese renewables firm Jiangsu Zhenjiang New Energy Equipment entered a partnership last year to build a 3 GW capacity tracker manufacturing facility in Dammam, expandable to 5 GW.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background and outside sources.)

LOGISTICS-

#1- Modon + Panattoni to cooperate on Jeddah warehouses: Saudi Authority for Industrial Cities and Technology Zones (Modon) signed a SAR 100 mn MoU with US-based logistics developer Panattoni to build and operate first-class warehouses on a 50k sqm site in Jeddah, the authority said in a post on X.

ICYMI- Modon attracted over SAR 24 bn in new investments in 2024, up 38% y-o-y. It also signed a total of 10 industrial, investment, and logistics contracts worth SAR 350 mn on the sidelines of the Saudi Food Show earlier this month.

#2- Swissport launched ground handling services for low-cost carrier Air Arabia at 13 Saudi airports simultaneously, according to a press release. The expansion includes major cities such as Riyadh, Jeddah, Dammam, Madinah, Al Qassim, Al Ula, Hail, Al Jouf, Tabuk, Yanbu, Taif, Abha, and Jizan. The company currently handles check-in, baggage, aircraft cleaning, and cargo while considering plans to add aircraft cleaning and lounge operations.

FINANCIAL SERVICES-

GreenstoneSaudi Arabia can now start operating as a manager and arranger in the securities business, after it secured the Capital Market Authority’s (CMA) approval, according to a statement.

AVIATION-

Saudia will begin operating five weekly flights to Italy, connecting Riyadh and Jeddah to Venice starting Friday, 13 June, it said in a post on X. Riyadh will see the departure of three services per week, while Jeddah will serve another two weekly flights.

MEDIA-

Saudi Signs and Rotana Signs launched in-carriage advertisement digital screens in the Riyadh Metro, according to a post on LinkedIn. The integrated digital screen network includes 2.6k digital screens installed in 448 metro wagons — six per wagon — covering 183 trains across all six Riyadh Metro lines, Gulf News reports.

EDUCATION-

London Business School will offer three Executive Education programs during the 2025–2026 academic year in Riyadh, according to a press release. Saudis may choose to enroll in Women Leadership, Leading Teams for Emerging Leaders, and Next Level Leadership at the school’s newly established executive office.

Global growth is stalling as tariffs and uncertainty rise -OECD

Global economic growth is losing steam, and is expected to decelerate to 2.9% in 2025 and 2026, down from 3.3% in 2024, the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) warned in its latest Economic Outlook (pdf). The figures for this year and next would mark the first time since the pandemic that global growth would come in below 3%, the Financial Times reports.

The slowdown will be led by the world’s largest economies: US growth is forecasted to fall sharply to 1.6% in 2025 and 1.5% in 2026 from 2.8% in 2024, while China could see a slowdown from 5.0% to 4.7% and then 4.3%. In contrast, the eurozone will inch forward, with growth picking up slightly to 1.0% in 2025 and 1.2% in 2026, from just 0.8% in 2024. Despite this, “[weakened] economic prospects will be felt around the world, with almost no exception,” the OECD said.

The OECD attributed the downshift to tighter financial conditions, elevated trade barriers, and falling investment confidence. “The global economy has shifted from a period of resilient growth and declining inflation to a more uncertain path,” Secretary-General Mathias Cormann said in an accompanying press release.

Here at home: The OECD sees Saudi Arabia’s real GDP growing 1.8% in 2025 and 2.5% in 2026, up from 1.2% in 2024, outpacing the US, Germany, the UK, and France, while falling below average growth for G20 countries (forecasted to remain stable at 2.9% this year and next). Inflation is seen by the OECD rising slightly by 0.2 percentage points y-o-y to 1.9% in 2025, before easing to 1.8% in 2026, ranking among the top three lowest inflation rates among G20 countries.

Trump tariffs bite: The OECD cited President Donald Trump’s recently enacted tariffs as a major drag and risk for economies. The effective tariff rate has jumped from 2.5% to over 15% — the highest since WWII — and could keep US inflation elevated around 4% into 2025, the FT reports. That’s likely to delay any rate cuts from the Federal Reserve; however, policy rate cuts could follow in countries more shielded from trade tensions if inflation stays under control.

Global inflation is easing, but slowly: Inflation across G20 economies is expected to decline to 3.6% in 2025 and 3.2% in 2026. However, trade tensions could keep price pressures stubborn in some countries, although this will be tempered somewhat by lower commodity prices, the OECD said.

Trade recovery remains sluggish: Global trade growth is seen slowing to 2.8% this year and just 2.2% in 2026 — far below historical averages, the FT reports. Any further retaliatory moves in response to tariffs would also weigh on trade flows through supply chain disruptions.

What’s needed? The OECD called for renewed global cooperation to “[preserve] the economic benefits of rules-based global trade” and urged governments to enact structural reforms that could jumpstart investment, which has stagnated since the 2008 financial crisis.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are firmly in the green this morning, led by South Korean markets, which are up on the back of the country electing the opposition party leader as president. The Kospi index rose to its highest level since last August, according to CNBC.

Wall Street futures indicate another day of markets opening in the red, despite consecutive days of gains buoyed by tech stocks.

TASI	10,832	-0.2% (YTD: -10.0%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,383	-0.1% (YTD: -8.3%)
NomuC	27,050	+0.2% (YTD: -14.1%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	5.0% repo	4.5% reverse repo
EGX30	32,355	+0.1% (YTD: +8.8%)
ADX	9,691	+0.5% (YTD: +2.9%)
DFM	5,522	+0.7% (YTD: +7.0%)
S&P 500	5970	+0.6% (YTD: +1.5%)
FTSE 100	8787	+0.2% (YTD: +9.6%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5376	+0.4% (YTD: +9.8%)
Brent crude	USD 65.63	+1.6%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.72	-0.1%
Gold	USD 3383.50	+0.2%
BTC	USD 105,449.20	+0.5% (YTD: +12.8%)
Sukuk/bond market index	913	+0.05% (YTD: +1.3%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	USD 143.67	+0.1% (YTD: +2.7%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	17.69	-3.7% (YTD: +2.0%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI fell 0.16% yesterday on turnover of SAR 3.6 bn. The index is down 10.0% YTD.

In the green: Cenomi Retail (+6.7%), Naseej (+6.1%) and SRMG (+5.9%).

In the red: UCIC (-4.0%), SHL (-3.5%) and Chemical (-3.0%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC rose 0.2%yesterday on turnover of SAR 24.3 mn. The index is down 14.1% YTD.

In the green:Marble Design (+9.7%), Leaf (+9.2%) and NBM (+8.0%).

In the red: Future Care (-6.1%), Nofoth (-5.8%) and Ladun (-4.4%).

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Almunajem Foods’ BoD approved a SAR 60 mn dividend distribution at SAR 1 per share for 1H 2025, it said in a disclosure to Tadawul. The distribution date is set for Monday, 30 June.

Al Rashid Industrial Company’s shareholders approved a SAR 10 mn dividend payout for FY 2024 at SAR 1.25 per share, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. The distribution date is set for 18 June.

Al Babtain Food Company’s shareholders approved a SAR 1.7 mn dividend payout for FY 2024 at SAR 0.5 per share, according to a disclosure to Tadawul. The distribution date is set for 22 June.

CALENDAR

JUNE

4-9 June (Wednesday-Monday): Hajj.

5-10 June (Thursday-Tuesday): Markets close for Eid Al Adha.

6-10 June (Friday-Tuesday): Eid Al Adha.

17-18 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

24-25 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): Tech-ecO-System Summit (ToSS), Riyadh.

30 June (Monday): Cancellation of Fines and Exemption of Financial Penalties Initiative by the Zakat, Tax and Customs Authority (Zatca) deadline.

JULY

July (Second week): World Intellectual Property Organization (WIPO) Global Awards 2025 awards ceremony, Geneva.

7 July-24 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

29-30 July (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

31 July (Thursday): Deadline for companies with SAR 2.5 mn or more in 2022/2023 revenues to integrate e-invoicing solutions with Fatoora.

AUGUST

7 July-24 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

5-17 August (Tuesday-Sunday): 2025 Fiba Asia Cup, Jeddah.

SEPTEMBER

15-17 September (Monday-Wednesday): Money 20/20 Middle East, Riyadh.

17-18 September (Wednesday-Thursday): US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

23 September (Tuesday): Saudi National Day.

OCTOBER

1-3 October (Wednesday-Friday): Saudi Green Building Forum, Riyadh.

7-8 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): Global EV & Mobility Technology (GEMTECH) Forum, Riyadh.

15 October (Wednesday): Russian-Arab Summit.

17 October (Friday): Saudization for private healthcare roles enters its second phase.

22-23 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Private Capital Forum, Riyadh.

28-30 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Investment Initiative (FII9), King Abdulaziz International Conference Center (KAICC) and the Ritz-Carlton, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve Open Market Committee meeting.

NOVEMBER

3-9 November (Monday- Sunday): WTA Tour Finals, Riyadh.

11-13 November (Tuesday-Thursday): TouriseSummit, Riyadh.

17-20 November (Monday-Thursday): Cityscape Global, Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre, Riyadh.

23-26 November (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh.

24-26 November (Monday-Wednesday) The World Advanced Manufacturing & Logistics Saudi Expo, Riyadh.

27-30 November (Thursday-Sunday): World Rally Championship Saudi Arabia 2025, Jeddah.

30 November (Sunday): Zatca 21st E-invocing integration wave deadline.

DECEMBER

1-4 December (Monday-Thursday): International Conference on Nuclear and Radiological Emergencies, Riyadh.

1-4 December (Monday-Thursday): 61st ISOCARP World Planning Congress, Riyadh.

9-10 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): Federal Open Market Committee meeting and Summary of Economic Projections.

25-27 December (Saturday-Monday): The Fortune Global Forum 2025, Riyadh.

31 December (Wednesday): Zatca 22st E-invoicing integration wave deadline.

2026

UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum to take place in Saudi Arabia.

8-12 February (Sunday-Thursday): World Defense Show, Riyadh.

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

27-29 April (Monday-Wednesday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

2027

The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh.

The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea.

Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed.

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