Making IPOs mean what they say

1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: France and the UK commit (limited) forces to defend Saudi Arabia

Good morning, friends. We hope the long National Day weekend treated you well. There’s plenty waiting for you after the break.

The regulators set the tone this morning. The CMA is pitching a rewrite of the IPO rulebook to narrow the gap between the demand a company advertises at listing and how its stock trades once it’s out. It comes as Saudi IPOs are having their weakest run in years, and it goes at the mechanics: the underwriting bank becomes a genuine backstop, big investors have to show the money behind their bids, and issuers put a year of forecasts on the record.

Aramco, for its part, is quietly rearranging its own furniture. The state giant is reorganizing to create a standalone gas division — the kind of structure that tends to precede a minority listing, if Aramco ever decides it wants fresh capital that way.

And the Kingdom is picking up some outside help on the war, with France and the UK each lending a measured, defensive hand while the East-West pipeline moves crude again as repairs run their course. More on all of it below.


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Dasha serves as Executive Vice Chairman of MARAKEZ, a member of the Fawaz Alhokair Group, one of the largest Saudi-based foreign investors in Egypt across real estate, retail, and renewables. He joined the Group to lead its new phase of development and expansion in Egypt, establishing MARAKEZ in 2015.

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Careful company

The war between Saudi Arabia and the Houthis is starting to carefully draw foreign militaries. France and the UK have each offered limited, defensive support to the Kingdom as missile and drone exchanges intensify.

France is committing forces to protect Yanbu. It will send troops, radar systems, and defense equipment, President Emmanuel Macron said. Paris’ goal is “not to get us involved in any conflicts, but to protect this site,” he said.

The UK is offering narrower support. A single Royal Air Force Voyager will provide “defensive air-to-air refuelling” for a limited period expected to last several weeks, the Financial Times reports, quoting Prime Minister Andy Burnham. “We want to see an end to the conflict as quickly as possible and we stand ready to play our part,” he said, tying the limited role to protecting oil flows and keeping a lid on the UK’s cost of living.

The Makkah pact’s members are talking, but no action yet. Defense chiefs from Saudi Arabia, Pakistan, and Turkey met in Riyadh on Friday, though the session produced no new commitments beyond the pact’s existing terms. Turkish parliament speaker Numan Kurtulmus said it could eventually grow into a broader bloc “for the Muslim world” — one that might even include Iran, according to Reuters.

Throughout this, exchanges haven’t slowed down. Since Thursday, Saudi air defenses intercepted and destroyed six missiles fired toward Taif and Yanbu, two drones aimed at Riyadh, and a missile at Khamis Mushait, Coalition spokesman Turki Al-Maliki said on X. The Houthis said they hit a “sensitive site” in Riyadh and Aramco facilities in Yanbu in response to the Kingdom’s “aggressive aerial raids,” Houthi military spokesman Yahya Saree said on Thursday. Saudi Arabia struck back the next day with 14 airstrikes and missile attacks on Taiz, Amran, Marib, and Saada in Yemen, Saree said in a separate statement. The number of Saudi strikes has exceeded 1k since the escalation began.

MEANWHILE- US-Iran diplomacy is moving backwards. US President Donald Trump rejected Iran’s proposed seven-day ceasefire and told aides he expects to resume bombing Iran after the November midterms, the Wall Street Journal reports US officials as saying. Under the proposal, Iran would have reopened the Strait of Hormuz and restarted nuclear talks in exchange for a lifting of the blockade on its ports, the unfreezing of some assets, and eased sanctions on its oil exports. Washington, however, sees less urgency as tanker traffic through Hormuz rises, while Tehran wants terms close to June’s agreement.

Returning to flow

Is the East-West Pipeline moving oil again? Three sources told Reuters that the pipeline restarted operations on Tuesday, over a week after a drone strike forced it offline. The line is running at a reduced rate for now — three of its 11 pumping stations were damaged in the attack. Aramco is targeting nearly 4 mn bbl / d and 40% of capacity expected within days, though a full restart will take six to eight weeks.

Aramco was already lining up buyers ahead of the restart: The company had informally told Asian refiners they’d soon be able to collect crude again from Yanbu, Bloomberg reported before the restart was confirmed. Aramco kept ramping up loadings from Ras Tanura in the Gulf throughout the outage, according to shipping data reported by Reuters.

Not every buyer got the workaround in time: Several Asian refiners contacted by Aramco missed scheduled loading dates after the pipeline shut down and had tankers either idling near the Red Sea port or sailing toward it.

Into the dip

PIF is considering wading into Gulf bonds, and is turning to a known name to do it. Saudi Arabia’s sovereign wealth fund is weighing an initial USD 500 mn mandate for Pacific Investment Management Co. (Pimco) to buy mainly Gulf government debt, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter.

It would be PIF’s first time handing money to Pimco, though the firm is well established in the neighborhood. It already runs money for Sama, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, and the Kuwaiti and Qatari wealth funds, and has lent bns to state-backed borrowers across the region through private placements since the Iran war began.

PIF would be buying into a market that has cheapened sharply. Gulf sovereign bonds have sold off since the war started, as strikes on energy infrastructure and the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz weighed on sentiment toward the region. Investors now demand 121 bps more in yield to hold Gulf government debt than before, with Qatar and the UAE the hardest hit, down 5.7% and 4.3% respectively, and Saudi down 3.5%.

The move also fills a gap in PIF’s book. The fund’s portfolio leans on equities, private investments, and Saudi development assets, and carries less fixed income than peers like the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority. A bond allocation would move it toward that balance. The plan is still in early stages, with no decision made.

Adia answers a Kaust liquidity call

Adia buys into Kaust’s USD 1 bn secondaries sale: The endowment behind Saudi Arabia’s King Abdullah University of Science and Technology (Kaust) is offloading a private markets portfolio worth at least USD 1 bn into the secondaries market and the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (Adia) is the buyer, PEI Secondaries Investor reports, citing three sources it says are familiar with the matter. The portfolio carries Asia-Pacific and China private markets exposure, and Jefferies is understood to be advising.

Why it matters: The transaction is one of the more direct capital links yet between a Saudi institutional balance sheet and an Emirati sovereign fund, landing as both governments race to build out their own private-capital ecosystems.

BACKGROUND- Kaust joins a growing line of university endowments testing the secondaries market for liquidity, alongside the University of California, Yale, and Harvard. Little is publicly disclosed about the Kaust endowment, which is run out of Washington, DC by the Kaust Investment Management Company.

What we don’t know yet — exact pricing, the full manager list, or whether this is a one-off rebalancing or the start of a broader Kaust sell-down. Adia and Jefferies declined to comment, and Kaust didn’t respond to PEI Secondaries Investor’s questions.

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The Egyptian government locked in enough LNG and crude to carry the country through peak demand this summer, and the real question now is who pays for it and for the rebuild ahead.

PowerTrip, our new four-part signature series, follows the money behind an energy sector that went from exporting gas to importing it in just five years.

Over the four issues this autumn, we'll look at how the lights stayed on and what that cost, who will own the next generation of power, how fast renewables can really scale, and whether Egypt's claim to be the region's energy hub still holds.

Issue I lands Wednesday, 30 September, and looks at how Egypt avoided rationing this summer, what the gas shortfall means for the economy, and where oil is headed over the next 18 months.

Tap here to subscribe to the Egypt edition and get PowerTrip delivered straight to your inbox.

The big story abroad

Prospects for a lasting resolution to the regional war dimmed over the weekend. US President Trump rejected Iran’s proposal for a seven-day ceasefire that would have seen Tehran reopen the Strait of Hormuz and restart nuclear talks in exchange for Washington lifting its port blockade. Trump expects the bombardment of Iran to continue after the US midterm elections in November, officials said.

Tehran’s response? Tehran has signalled that meeting its conditions and continuing negotiations is the only path to reopening the Strait of Hormuz. Mediators in the US-Iran talks have not officially passed along a US rejection of the plan, despite Trump’s public comments, Iranian Foreign Minister Abbas Araqchi said.

In other geopolitical news: Washington and Beijing have agreed to cut over USD 30 bn worth of tariffs on non-sensitive goods in both directions. This applies to US exports including farm goods, wood, and cosmetics, and imports including small appliances, toys, and decorations. The two sides agreed to establish an investment board to discuss opportunities and challenges and to schedule a November dialogue on AI risks and benefits.

Apple liable for haptic patent infringement: A federal jury in San Diego ordered Apple to pay upwards of USD 5.7 bn in damages to Taction Technology after finding the tech giant infringed two haptics patents. The suit alleged that Apple used patented tech to power the haptic feedback in iPhones and Apple Watches. Apple intends to appeal the verdict, describing it as “entirely unsupported by facts.”

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2

CAPITAL MARKETS

CMA wants banks to guarantee IPOs and investors to fund their bids

The Capital Market Authority (CMA) is proposing to rewire how Saudi companies go public. Three changes sit at the core of draft provisions aimed at the same target: the gap between the demand a company appears to attract at IPO and the demand that shows up once it trades. The draft opened for public consultation on Istitlaa on 22 September and runs for 30 days, through 22 October. If approved, the provisions take effect 2 November.

The biggest change lands on the banks: The draft would require the underwriting bank to commit firmly and early. The underwriting agreement must be signed and in force before book building — the stage where the bank sounds out large investors to set the price — begins, and from the moment it starts, the bank is obligated to buy any shares investors don’t take, up to the entire offering. If taking up those shares leaves the issuer short of the listing requirements, the shares don’t list, and the underwriter buys the whole offering anyway.

That turns banks into “genuine backstops rather than facilitators of IPO demand,” Ubhar Capital head of research Tahir Abbas told Bloomberg, giving them more reason to scrutinize inflated or weakly funded bids when they carry the risk of the full offering. The practice is common in the US and Europe.

The other two changes go after the order book itself. When large investors place bids during book building, the financial advisor, and any other Capital Market Institution taking orders, would have to verify that each bid is backed by actual available liquidity (cash or its equivalents). Orders would also have to become binding by the subscription payment deadline set in the prospectus. Issuers, meanwhile, would have to disclose at least a year’s worth of forward-looking statements and forecasts, including financial performance indicators, based on “reasonable and measurable assumptions,” with the financial advisor responsible for vetting them.

Why it matters: The draft addresses one of the problems that have held back Saudi issuance this year. Companies keep drawing triple-digit oversubscription at IPO and then sliding once they list. Fund managers have told us the two don’t move together, with heavy oversubscription a poor guide to how a stock trades after the bell. Only four of the 17 companies to go public on the kingdom’s main market since the start of 2025 are trading above their issue price, according to data compiled by Bloomberg. Our read of last year’s group is starker: six of the seven companies that listed on Tadawul in 2025 ended their first year below their offer price, down around 27% on average.

DATAPOINT- Just three companies have gone public in Saudi this year — Dar Al Balad (DBS), Saleh Abdulaziz Al Rashed, and MSGA — raising SAR 522.6 mn, around 4% of the SAR 13.27 bn that 25 companies raised over the same eight months of 2025. Bloomberg puts the full-year Saudi IPO haul at about USD 144 mn, the weakest in years.

Order-book quality is one factor among several here. The market participants we've spoken with agree the mechanics need fixing. “Book building needs to be genuine price discovery rather than simply a mechanism for validating the highest achievable valuation,” EQCM founder and CEO Osama Alowedi previously told EnterpriseAM. But the drought has structural factors weighing it down too. Higher-for-longer rates have lifted the cost of equity and pushed valuations down, this year’s geopolitical volatility pushed issuers to delay rather than launch into a jittery market, and owners have been reluctant to list at the prices a bruised market will pay. Those causes sit largely outside what this draft addresses.

BACKGROUND- The draft builds on a run of CMA moves to reshape the IPO process. Earlier measures pushed issuers to reserve as much as 30% of an offering for retail investors. The consultation also lands after the regulator’s scrutiny of how 2025 listings were priced and allocated, and shortly after Mazen Al Sudairi took over as CMA chairman — a capital-markets veteran from some of the kingdom’s biggest banks.

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ENERGY

Aramco is splitting off its gas business into a separate division as it explores a minority float

Aramco is splitting off a standalone gas unit: The state oil giant is reorganizing to create a standalone gas division — a structure that could eventually support a minority listing to raise fresh capital, Reuters reports, citing two people familiar with the plans.

The restructuring: Aramco would carve gas out of its upstream and downstream businesses, giving the new unit its own president. That would create a dedicated platform to develop domestic gas, expand overseas LNG, and explore capital-raising options such as further lease-and-leaseback agreements.

Why it matters: A standalone gas division would give Aramco a ring-fenced asset it can open to outside investors without exposing its core upstream oil business. Gulf state oil companies have increasingly used this model to bring in capital while retaining control of their core operations. UAE’s Adnoc, for example, has listed minority stakes in its gas, drilling, and retail-fuel businesses. Both Adnoc and Aramco have also raised bns through transactions involving their oil and gas pipeline assets.

REMEMBER- Aramco has already used that playbook on Jafurah. A BlackRock GIP-led consortium invested USD 11 bn in Jafurah’s gas-processing infrastructure last year through a lease-and-leaseback agreement. The assets were placed in Jafurah Midstream Gas Company, with Aramco retaining 51% and the investor group taking 49%, before being leased back to Aramco for 20 years. Jafurah began operating last year and is potentially the largest unconventional gas field outside the US, holding an estimated 230 tcf.

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INFRASTRUCTURE

Al Yamama takes the infrastructure contract for Humain’s 6 GW Riyadh AI campus

The groundwork for Humain’s newest Riyadh AI campus now has a builder. Al Yamama Company for Trading & Contracting has secured the contract to lay the infrastructure for the PIF-owned AI firm’s planned 6-GW data center campus in the capital. The Dammam-based contractor is taking on the enabling works for the hyperscale site, which the PIF-owned AI firm tendered in May, Meed reports.

Al Yamama’s scope covers the backbone — a power distribution network operating at 380 kV, 132 kV, and 33 kV, two substations of 500 MVA and 200 MVA, and a 2k MVA bulk supply point, along with water and fire systems, a sewage treatment plant, stormwater drainage, roads, and underground cable and fiber. Humain is running the job on an early contractor involvement basis, where shortlisted teams pitch designs and methodologies before one is chosen to build.

The campus will sit on a 24-sq-km site in east Riyadh’s Al Saad area, built in two phases on six plots, each at 1 GW.

Why it matters: A 6-GW AI campus needs power infrastructure on a very different scale from a conventional data center, with dedicated high-voltage networks and substations to support the load. This contract puts the infrastructure behind Humain’s plans into construction, with a Saudi contractor leading the works.

IN CONTEXT- The Al Saad campus is the largest of several Humain sites now taking shape. In Neom’s Oxagon, Humain and DataVolt have broken ground on the first 100 MW of a 360 MW facility, the opening phase of a planned 1.5 GW campus due to start operating in 2028. A build with AMD and Cisco is scaling toward 1 GW by 2030, and a separate Riyadh project it awarded to contractor MIS is growing to 250 MW.

REMEMBER- The award feeds Humain’s fast-expanding compute push. At Leap 2026, the AI firm anchored more than USD 15 bn in launches and agreements, stitching itself across the stack from power and data centers to models and hardware.

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ALSO ON OUR RADAR

SAR modernizes the Hajj metro with Hitachi Rail, and IsDB pledges USD 400 mn to education

Hajj metro gets a makeover

Saudi Arabia Railways (SAR) and Japan’s Hitachi Rail have signed a contract to modernize the Al Mashaaer Al Muqaddassah Metro, the line that moves pilgrims between the holy sites of Mina, Muzdalifah, and Arafat during Hajj, according to a press release. The 18-km, nine-station system can carry around 72k passengers per hour in each direction. The revamp targets reliability, operational performance, and sustainability.

IsDB commits USD 400 mn to education investments

The Islamic Development Bank (IsDB) and the Arab Coordination Group are putting up USD 800 mn for a second phase of their SmartEd education initiative, according to a statement. Announced at the Global Partnership for Education (GPE) replenishment conference, the concessional financing pairs with USD 200 mn in GPE grants for a USD 1 bn package, double the scale of the first phase. IsDB and the Opec Fund are each contributing USD 400 mn, with other ACG members reaffirming support. Phase One, launched in 2021, has channeled about USD 522.5 mn into education programs in Chad, Cameroon, the Kyrgyz Republic, and Uzbekistan.

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PLANET FINANCE

Banks threaten to look beyond London as windfall tax talk grows

International lenders say they’ll put their money elsewhere if the UK raises taxes on the banking sector, according to a UK Finance survey picked up by the Financial Times. Fourteen foreign banks with big UK footprints and a combined 35k staff in the country said London is no longer their automatic pick for a European base, as it was before Brexit, adding that heavier tax and tighter visa rules would make them rethink their UK presence.

Why now? Lenders are worried next month’s budget will include a windfall levy, with Chancellor John Healey hunting for cashflows to cover the rising cost of government debt since the Iran war began. Bank earnings make the sector an obvious candidate. Britain’s four largest high-street lenders (NatWest, Lloyds, and the domestic units of Barclays and HSBC) booked GBP 13 bn in combined pre-tax income in 1H 2026, up 16% y-o-y. Union leaders cite last year’s GBP 25 bn in bonuses as proof banks can shoulder more. But UK Finance chief David Postings warned that additional tax could push the industry past a “tipping point.”

The banks’ side: PwC analysis commissioned by UK Finance puts the total tax take on London’s corporate and investment banks at 46.5% of income. No other major US or European hub is higher: Amsterdam sits at 42%, Dublin at 29%, and New York at 28%, while Germany’s reforms will bring Frankfurt down to 34% from 39% by 2032.

The wealthy are heading out too: Macro hedge fund founder Chris Rokos, among the UK’s three largest individual taxpayers, is relocating to Athens and setting up an office there. Greece caps annual tax on foreign income at EUR 100k for as long as 15 years, in exchange for at least EUR 500k invested locally, making it a more tax-friendly option for high-net-worth individuals. Millennium Management is also said to be considering a Greek office. The departures come after the UK scrapped the non-dom regime and raised taxes on inheritance, capital gains, and private equity.

Where the Gulf fits in: The UAE is still drawing wealth. The likes of Millennium Management and Rokos Capital have set up shop in the UAE, alongside their other hubs. But the field of rivals is widening. Turkey rolled out tax breaks for wealthy expats and investors in August; Hong Kong is moving to widen its tax exemption on carried interest beyond private equity to other fund strategies, with the bill expected to go to a final vote later this year; and Greece’s flat-tax regime has now landed one of London’s biggest names.

TASI

10,599

-0.8% (YTD: +1.0%)

MSCI Tadawul 30

1,424

-0.9% (YTD: +2.6%)

NomuC

21,532

-0.1% (YTD: -7.6%)

USD : SAR (SAMA)

USD 3.75 Sell

USD 3.75 Buy

Interest rates

4.25% repo

3.75% reverse repo

EGX30

53,777

-0.8% (YTD: +28.6%)

ADX

10,201

-0.1% (YTD: +2.1%)

DFM

5,980

-0.1% (YTD: -1.1%)

S&P 500

7,743

+0.5% (YTD:+13.1%)

FTSE 100

10,695

+0.1 % (YTD: +7.7%)

Euro Stoxx 50

6,303

+0.5% (YTD: +8.7%)

Brent crude

USD 104.32

-2.1%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 3.20

-3.1%

Gold

USD 4,321

+0.5%

BTC

USD 84,102

+0.4% (YTD: -3.8%)

Sukuk/bond market index

893.90

-0.5% (YTD: -2.8%)

S&P MENA bond & sukuk

147.61

-0.3% (YTD: -2.8%)

VIX (Fear gauge)

14.87

-5.1% (YTD: -0.5%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI fell 0.8% yesterday on turnover of SAR 3.5 bn. The index is up 1.0% YTD.

In the green: Raydan Food (+10.0%), Tabuk Agricultural Development (+9.9%), and BinDawood Holding (+4.3%).

In the red: Saudi Fisheries (-10.0%), Naseej International Trading (-7.5%), and Arabian Contracting Services (-4.0%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC fell 0.1% yesterday on turnover of SAR 18.8 mn. The index is down 7.6% YTD.

In the green: Amwaj International (+11.8%), Dar Almarkabah for Renting Cars (+10.0%), and Purity for Information Technology (+9.8%).

In the red: Shmoh Almadi (-10.5%), Albattal Factory for Chemical Industries (-9.9%), and Alfakhera for Mens Tailoring (-9.7%).


28 September-1 October (Monday-Thursday): The International Conference on Theory and Practice of Electronic Governance (ICEGOV), Prince Sultan University, Riyadh.

OCTOBER

25-26 October (Sunday-Monday): The Global Proptech Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): ACHEMA Middle East, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): The Future Investment Initiative, King Abdulaziz International Conference Center, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

30 October-1 November (Friday-Sunday): The New Global Sport Conference, Sofitel Hotel & Convention Centre, Riyadh.

NOVEMBER

11-12 November (Wednesday-Thursday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

16-19 November (Monday-Thursday): Cityscape Global, Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre (Malham), Riyadh.

29 November-1 December (Sunday-Tuesday): The UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum, Riyadh.

29 November-1 December (Sunday-Tuesday): The Global Logistics Forum, King Abdulaziz International Convention Centre, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2027

FEBRUARY

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): Energy Regulators Regional Association annual conference, Riyadh.

MARCH

21-25 March (Sunday-Thursday):The World Water Forum, Riyadh.

22–24 March (Monday-Wednesday): Capital Markets Forum, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh

APRIL

26-29 April (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

JUNE

1-3 June (Tuesday-Thursday): The Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

  • The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
  • Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed;
  • Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun takes place in Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

  • The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.
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