Good morning, friends. Inflation held steady at 1.8% in June — below 2% for another month — but read the fine print on the timing: the survey window closed before the fresh US-Iran strikes and the US naval blockade on Iranian shipping through Hormuz. So the calm reading is real, but it's a snapshot of the calm before. Next month’s inflation figure is the one to watch.
The bigger picture is holding up better than you might expect. BMI’s Abdallah Saleh told a webinar we sat in on that the Kingdom has come through the conflict relatively well so far, with growth set to strengthen in the second half after a 2Q contraction, around 1% for the year as business activity recovers. And on the corporate side, Jarir posted a 19.5% jump in 2Q net income. Let’s dive in.
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Yanbu takes the strain
Our Red Sea oil getaway is running close to full capacity: Crude exports through Yanbu reached nearly 4.7 mn bbl / d this week, up from 3.36 mn bbl / d a few days earlier, as regional tensions continue, according to Signal Ocean data picked up by Asharq Al Awsat.
Why it matters: Yanbu has become the kingdom’s key export outlet to global markets, allowing crude to bypass the Strait of Hormuz via the East-West pipeline. Export volumes have averaged more than 4 mn bbl / d since June, compared to 973k bbl / d during the same period last year.
REMEMBER- The pipeline already carries up to 7 mn bbl / d, including some 2 mn bbl / d to domestic refineries, and the remainder for exports. A capacity increase could allow the kingdom, and potentially neighbors, to ship more crude to global markets without relying on the Strait of Hormuz.
US approves potential military sale to KSA
The US State Department approved a potential foreign military sale to Saudi Arabia, valued at USD 1.96 bn for up to 20k Advanced Precision Kill Weapon Systems and related equipment, according to a statement. The sale also includes rocket launchers, explosive warheads, rocket motors, practice warheads, and other support equipment.
Data point
SAR 1.85 tn — that was the value of Saudi Arabia’s reserve assets at the end of June, up 8% y-o-y, according to data from Sama (pdf). Foreign currency reserves, which account for around 95% of the total, rose 9% y-o-y to SAR 1.76 tn. IMF reserve position assets edged down 0.4% to SAR 13.2 bn, Special Drawing Rights fell 3% to SAR 78.6 bn, and gold reserves held flat at SAR 1.6 bn.
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The big story abroad
The US continued to strike Iran yesterday in efforts to force the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz. US officials say that US President Donald Trump is considering a significant expansion of military operations in the Islamic Republic that could include escalating airstrikes, deploying ground forces to seize strategic Iranian islands near the strait, and bombing a heavily fortified site that could host covert nuclear development.
That being said, Trump said yesterday that Tehran wants to return to the negotiating table and make a deal. Trump claimed that Iranian leaders “want to settle so badly,” yet defense analysts speaking to CNBC say they see no realistic path toward settlement.
Oil markets are already reacting to the closure of Hormuz, with traders warning that the latest flare up threatens a fresh crude supply crunch. The market now lacks the reserves that helped absorb price shocks earlier in the war — “we’ve burned through all of the buffers we had. Everything,” the FT quotes one trader as saying. “All of that’s now gone.”
IN OTHER NEWS- Anthropic is moving ahead with its planned IPO and plans to begin meeting with prospective investors over the coming weeks, according to people with knowledge of the matter. The Claude developer is looking to make its market debut as soon as October, joining a growing list of AI players going public.
PLUS- Argentina and Spain will face off in the 2026 World Cup final on Sunday, after Argentina secured its spot following a dramatic 2-1 comeback victory against England last night. England will take on France hours earlier in the third place play-off.



