Fitch affirms Saudi A+ rating despite growth slowdown

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Hassan Allam eyes Gulf exchanges

Good morning, all. We kick off the week with news of Fitch affirming our A+ rating despite the economic fallouts of the US-Iran war. GDP growth, meanwhile, is expected to slow to 0.6% this year, down from the pre-war estimate of 4.8%.

The EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum is back — and this year, we’re giving the full day to the one question on every business leader's mind: What does AI actually mean for your company, your people, and your own job?

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Hassan Allam eyes the exchanges

Our friends at Hassan Allam Holding are considering taking some of their real estate and infrastructure subsidiaries public on Gulf exchanges, the EGX, or on both, Chairman and CEO Hassan Allam was quoted as saying on the sidelines of BMG Economic Forum at the London Stock Exchange. The parent conglomerate will stay private.

Why it matters: Listing foreign-facing subsidiaries in Gulf markets would give Hassan Allam access to funding while keeping the parent conglomerate private. The group is executing a USD 10.5 bn project backlog, split evenly between Egypt and markets including Saudi Arabia, the UAE, Libya, and Oman. Saudi is the group’s largest foreign market with over USD 2 bn in active contracts, followed by the UAE, Libya, and Oman. Hassan Allam’s real estate development arm, Grova, launched the SAR 3.3 bn Noor Khuzam project in Riyadh alongside local partners.

REFRESHER- We have been tracking Hassan Allam’s capital market moves since last year, when the group filed to list a special purpose acquisition company (SPAC) on the EGX. The SPAC was rebranded to Grova Venture Capital and had its issued capital raised to EGP 100 mn to fund future acquisitions. When market chatter suggested the blank-check vehicle was a backdoor listing for Hassan Allam Construction, the company denied those rumors.

Visa-in-a-package

The Tourism Ministry has launched a bundled Tourist Visa Package, allowing travelers from seven countries to obtain an electronic tourist visa as part of a single travel booking. Jordan, Egypt, India, Bangladesh, Indonesia, Mexico, and Pakistan are the first eligible nationalities, with more to follow.

How it works: The package must include a confirmed round-trip flight and accommodation at a Tourism Ministry-licensed hotel rated at least four stars. The visa is issued electronically within 48 hours of purchase, with no embassy visit required. Two travel agencies, Reserval and Almosafer, are currently accredited to offer the service.

The fine print: The visa is single-entry, valid for three months, with stays of between two and 88 days. Packages start at SAR 4k per adult for the first two days, plus SAR 1k for each additional day. The visa cannot be cancelled independently; cancelling the travel package automatically revokes it. Visa holders may travel freely within the Kingdom after arrival, including to Makkah and Madinah, though Umrah services are not included.

A high-level Iraqi visit soon?

Iraqi Prime Minister Ali Faleh Al Zaidi plans to visit Riyadh “in the coming period” to strengthen economic ties with Saudi Arabia, as part of a broader Arab tour following an anticipated trip to Washington, he told Al Arabiya without specifying a date.

The country has no plans to leave Opec, but will continue to push for what it considers a fair production quota that reflects its capacity, Al Zaidi said. Opec+ chose to increase its production quotas by 188k bbl / d in July, even if many of those barrels cannot physically reach the market.

Data point

18.7% — that’s how far the Industrial Production Index (IPI) fell y-o-y in May, dragged down by a 28.6% y-o-y drop in mining and quarrying alongside a 6.2% decline in manufacturing, according to data (pdf) from the General Authority for Statistics. On a monthly basis, the index rose 3.2% from April.

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The big story abroad

Regional tensions are escalating. Iran said it closed the Strait of Hormuz after firing a warning shot yesterday at a Cyprus-flagged container ship it said took an “unapproved route.” Iran’s navy said the waterway will remain closed “until further notice” or “until the end of US interference in the region,” and vowed to respond to any retaliation with a “forceful response.”

The US military responded by launching its third round of strikes against Iran in a week, US Central Command (Centcom) said. The fresh round of strikes — targeting Iranian air and surface-surveillance radars, missile and drone storage facilities — aims to weaken Iran’s ability to attack commercial vessels, Centcom said.

Meanwhile, in the AI world: Apple has filed a lawsuit accusing OpenAI and two of its former employees of stealing hardware designs, claiming that the ChatGPT developer’s top brass enabled this behavior. The lawsuit names two former Apple employees who have joined OpenAI, alleging improper transfer of sensitive information. The iPhone maker claims that over 400 of its former employees have joined the AI company.

Speaking of AI, not everyone can ride the wave: Analysis by the Financial Times has found that while 28 companies that pivoted to AI saw their combined market cap initially surge by USD 8.7 bn, more than half of those valuation gains have since evaporated. Findings suggest a trend of struggling companies using buzzy AI name changes to target retail investors and secure short-term market gains — the SEC calls this “AI washing.”

A memory drought may be coming: South Korean semiconductor giant SK Hynix’s CEO Kwak Noh-jung has sounded the alarm over an incoming memory supply shortage in 2027, set to be the worst ever in history. The company is forecasting that customer demand will continue to outstrip supply capacity even after 2030. Kwak’s comments echo similar sentiments from Nvidia and UBS.

An imminent change of ownership at Vodafone is making waves. French b’naire Xavier Niel is set to increase his ownership of Vodafone Group to become its largest shareholder after UAE telecom group e& agreed to sell him its entire 16.2% stake for about USD 6 bn. Some analysts say that Niel will exert influence over Vodafone’s strategy, catalyzing the firm's cost-cutting and freecash flow growth.

Fitch affirms Saudi A+ rating, but with a slowdown in the cards

A+ again: Fitch Ratings affirmed Saudi Arabia’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating at A+ with a stable outlook, delivering a vote of confidence in the Kingdom’s balance sheets despite the economic fallouts of the US-Iran war. The rating comes on the back of strong fiscal and external buffers as well as net foreign assets.

A slowdown in the cards? The rating agency expects real GDP growth to slow to 0.6% in 2026, a 4.2-percentage-point drag from the agency’s January forecast, affected by the closure of Hormuz and the inability to export petrochemicals.

Better than what could have been: Flows through the East-West pipeline helped keep oil moving at an average of 9 mn bbl / d — though lower than levels seen in 2025 — and consumer spending has held up through the conflict, Fitch said. Growth is expected to rebound in 2027, before easing to 2.9% in 2028.

The safety net is still intact: Foreign reserves are projected to remain well above peers, covering 11.6 months of external payments in 2026. Sovereign net foreign assets are set to decline as borrowing rises, but will remain a key strength, standing at 38.5% of GDP by end-2028.

Banks are also holding up: Non-performing loans and Tier 1 capital ratio stood at 1.1% and 19.2%, respectively, at the end of 1Q, improving from levels seen in 2024. The sector’s net external position is projected to narrow slowly as credit growth, especially for mortgages, eases compared to deposit growth.

The budget deficit is set to narrow in 2026 as higher oil prices offset lower oil volumes, before it picks up again to 4.7% of GDP in 2027 as oil revenues ease, consistent with a fiscal breakeven of USD 94 / bbl. Looking ahead, the deficit is also projected to narrow in 2028 despite Fitch seeing oil prices easing to USD 60 / bbl in 2028, due to easing pressures from the war and expenditure adjustment measures.

The agency expects a current account surplus in 2026, from a previously forecasted deficit of 4.3% of GDP in 2026, driven by higher oil revenues. Moving forward, lower oil prices and domestic demand will drive a current account deficit of 5% of GDP by 2028, which will be cushioned by external borrowing and sales of foreign assets to domestic buyers.

REMEMBER- The IMF has recently revised Saudi Arabia’s 2026 GDP growth forecast to 1.7%, down from the 2% it predicted in June. It also boosted its 2027 prediction by one percentage point to reach 5.5%.

Canada, Saudi sign mining and infrastructure deals

Canada wagering on Saudi rocks: Canadian Prime Minister Mark Carney’s official visit to Jeddah this week — the first by a Canadian PM in 26 years — produced 13 agreements and MoUs that the two governments valued at over USD 1 bn, signed at the Saudi-Canadian Investment Forum on Thursday.

The details: The agreements spanned health technology, mining, infrastructure, and defense. But the real weight sits in a narrow band — mining engineering and Riyadh infrastructure, the two places where Canadian capability meets Saudi’s most capital-hungry ambitions.

Two agreements do the heavy lifting: The Royal Commission for Riyadh City is set to sign two contracts worth USD 440 mn, while a partnership agreement between Maaden and Canada’s Hatch is valued at up to USD 700 mn. Carney’s office had not initially confirmed the total or even the currency — one account pegged it at “more than CAD 1 bn,” or roughly USD 710 mn.

The Hatch agreement is the one to watch. Hatch’s agreement makes it an engineering partner for Maaden’s planned USD 110 bn mining expansion. Maaden named Hatch its strategic delivery partner back in February.

Why it matters: The Kingdom is building mining into the third pillar of its economy, and executing this needs engineering and project-delivery depth Maaden doesn't have in-house at the scale a USD 110 bn program demands. Canada, squeezed by US tariffs and hunting for trade it doesn’t have to route through Washington, has exactly that depth to sell. Carney's visit doubled down on calls to diversify trade as US President Donald Trump imposed tariffs that are weighing on the Canadian economy.

The minerals prize: Saudi Arabia now puts its untapped mineral wealth at some USD 2.5 tn, and the Maaden-Hatch tie-up is not the first Canadian wager on that number. Ivanhoe Electric and Maaden run a 50-50 exploration joint venture across roughly 50k sq km of the underexplored Arabian Shield, hunting copper, gold, silver, and other electric metals, with Ivanhoe operating during exploration and Maaden taking over any viable deposit for development. The two extended that venture through July 2033 in an amended shareholders agreement filed on 7 July — two days before Carney landed.

BACKGROUND- The visit is as much repair as it is commerce. Ties ruptured in 2018 when Saudi Arabia expelled Canada’s ambassador and froze trade and investment after Ottawa criticized the kingdom’s human rights record. The two began restoring relations in 2023.

The forum points at the next wave: More than 30 Canadian companies across mining, energy, healthcare, education, and infrastructure worked the event, many circling the contracting pipeline around the 2034 World Cup and Riyadh’s Expo 2030 build-out. This also isn’t the first tranche — a Canadian trade delegation came away in January with roughly USD 600 mn in commercial partnership agreements. Two-way trade ran about USD 2.9 bn in 2025, with Saudi exports to Canada at USD 1.7 bn and imports from Canada at USD 1.2 bn.

What’s next: Carney’s office said the energy strand — LNG, hydrogen, and carbon capture — would be finalized next year. A delegation of Canadian pension funds will also return to the Kingdom “in a few months” to look for prospects, and Carney has invited Saudi investors to Toronto’s first investment summit in September.

Private credit finds its place as Saudi banks keep grip on lending

International investors are increasingly backing Saudi Arabia’s private credit market, filling a financing gap for younger, high-growth companies that are still too risky for conventional lenders, according to Alvarez & Marsal’s latest KSA Banking Pulse report.

Not competing with banks: “Saudi banks have sufficient space for lending growth internally within the market,” Sam Gidoomal, managing director and head of financial services for the Middle East, tells EnterpriseAM. The banking sector remains well-positioned to finance the kingdom's economic expansion, benefiting from strong liquidity and healthy balance sheets as well as robust demand from corporates, SMEs, and gigaprojects, Gidoomal adds.

The gap: “Where I think for the moment private credit has a part to play... is some of the newer technology companies that perhaps don’t have proven earnings reports because they’re relatively new,” Gidoomal says.

Unlike banks, which typically require “two, if not three years worth of recurrent revenue, profitability, and cashflow” before extending long-term financing, private credit funds are stepping in earlier to finance companies as they scale, particularly across fintech and other fast-growing sectors, according to Gidoomal. As those businesses mature, conventional lenders are expected to refinance them, although some private credit investors may choose to deepen their exposure instead.

The trend comes as Saudi banks continue to show strong financial fundamentals. Deposits rose 4% in the first quarter, outpacing 1.6% loan growth and reducing the sector’s loan-to-deposit ratio to 104%, according to A&M’s report. Non-performing loans remained at just 0.9%, while banks maintained strong capital and liquidity positions despite lower interest rates.

International appetite for Saudi financial assets is growing, Gidoomal argues, supported by stronger regulation and banks’ increasing use of wholesale funding and sukuk markets alongside traditional deposits. As investors become more familiar with the kingdom’s financial system, he expects more capital will flow into specialist financing rather than directly challenging traditional lenders. “As general appetite considerations improve and increase, I think that’s the next level where you’ll start to see them really participating on a direct lending basis,” he says.

Looking ahead, Gidoomal does not expect another wave of large bank mergers, saying future agreement activity is more likely to center on fintechs and non-bank financial institutions as established players seek new technology and digital capabilities through targeted acquisitions.

Energy minister absorbs industry and mining portfolios

Energy, industry, and mining are now under a single minister. Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman Al Saud has been appointed minister of industry and mineral resources while continuing his role as energy minister, replacing Bandar Al Khorayef, according to a series of royal decrees published by SPA. Al Khorayef was named state minister and a member of the Council of Ministers.

Al Khorayef also picked up a defense-sector brief, tasked with performing the duties of governor of the General Authority for Military Industries (GAMI) in an acting capacity, after Ahmed Al Ohali was relieved as governor.

Why it matters: Three portfolios central to the Kingdom’s diversification push — energy, industry, and mining — now sit with one minister, tightening coordination as Saudi expands mining and builds out downstream manufacturing. It also concentrates authority in Prince Abdulaziz, who keeps energy while absorbing a ministry that until today had its own cabinet seat. It’s unclear whether a new industry minister is in the cards.

About the ministers: Prince Abdulaziz has been energy minister since 2019, after stints as deputy oil minister, assistant oil minister, and state minister for energy affairs, steering Saudi oil policy through the Opec+ production accords. Al Khorayef (LinkedIn) took the industry portfolio the same year and chairs the National Industrial Development and Logistics Program, the Saudi Industrial Development Fund, Modon, and the Royal Commission for Jubail and Yanbu.

Humain partners with Canada’s Cohere, Uvera closes seed round, Boulevard Park is complete

Humain, Cohere strike AI infrastructure partnership

PIF-owned Humain and Canadian AI company Cohere are partnering on AI infrastructure, enterprise AI tools, and sovereign AI models, according to a statement. Humain will dedicate at least 50 MW of AI compute capacity to support Cohere’s next-generation foundation models, with the scope to expand over the coming five years. The capacity is expected to come online by 4Q 2027.

The sovereign AI piece: The two companies will develop Arabic-language and domain-specific foundation models, alongside enterprise AI applications targeting sectors including customer service, knowledge management, and business operations.

Why it matters: Cohere is the latest in a roster that includes Nvidia, AWS, AMD, Qualcomm, Cisco, Groq, and more to partner with Humain since its launch. The structure is consistent across these agreements: Humain provides compute capacity and market access and the partner brings model capability or implementation expertise. What Cohere adds that most others don’t is a direct Arabic-language model commitment. Humain already has its own Arabic Large Language Model, ALLAM, but the announcement does not say how the two initiatives will fit together.

New municipal projects for Al Baha

Al Baha welcomed a whole lot of housing and municipal projects during a visit by Housing and Municipalities Minister Majed Al Hogail, SPA reports. SAR 464 mn worth of municipal projects were inaugurated, covering roads, sidewalks, street lighting, flood mitigation, parks, and recreational facilities. Construction also kicked off for another SAR 873.5 mn worth of projects. Another 16 municipal investment projects were inaugurated, with expected revenues of SAR 284 mn.

On the housing side, SAR 185.7 mn worth of projects were inaugurated, including the Telal Al Baha development and projects in Baljurashi and Qilwa. Construction is also starting on SAR 150 mn in off-plan housing projects, while 19 homes were handed over to beneficiaries of the developmental housing program.

Uvera closes seed round

Deeptech startup Uvera raised an undisclosed sum in a seed round, which saw participation from Morgan Stanley Inclusive & Sustainable Ventures, LAB7, Core Vision, and strategic angel investors, according to a press release. The funding will be used to scale commercial deployments and further develop Uvera’s platform. LAB7 will also work with Uvera on its supply chain and traceability solutions.

Uvera? Founded in 2019 by Asrar Damdam, the company develops food preservation and supply chain solutions focused on extending the shelf life of fresh produce and tracking goods through the supply chain.

Boulevard Business Park is complete

Construction of the SAR 1 bn Boulevard Business Park in Riyadh’s Boulevard City has been completed, according to a post by General Entertainment Authority Chairman Turki Al Sheikh. The project includes nine office buildings offering more than 60k sqm of office space, over 1.3k parking spaces, retail areas, and corporate headquarters.

Riyadh sorely needs the office space. Grade A office occupancy in Riyadh stood at 98% as of 1Q 2026, with more than 780 multinational firms now operating regional headquarters in the capital. An additional 60k sqm won’t solve the shortage, but it adds supply to a market with almost none to spare.

IMF now sees MENA economy contracting 0.5%

The IMF marginally trimmed its 2026 global growth forecast to 3.0%, down from 3.1% in April, in its latest economic outlook report (pdf) — but MENA saw a much sharper downgrade. The region is now expected to contract by 0.5% this year, a 1.6-percentage-point downward revision and the single largest cut of any grouping in the entire report. 2027 projections tell the opposite story on both counts: global growth rebounds to 3.4%, and MENA sees the most aggressive growth of all at 7.3%.

That’s despite Saudi Arabia and Egypt’s expected growth this year. Saudi Arabia is seen growing 1.7% for 2026 — though that’s still a sharp 1.4-percentage-point cut from April — on the back of more diversified export routes than Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar. Meanwhile, Egypt is seen growing 4.6%, an upward revision of 0.4 percentage points from April’s forecast.

Behind the downgrade: Iraq, Kuwait, and Qatar — the producers most exposed to the war’s disruption of energy output, transport, and the Strait of Hormuz — are projected to contract sharply this year, before seeing “double-digit expansions” in 2027 once exports normalize.

The IMF frames 2026 as two opposing forces — a negative supply shock from the Middle East war and a positive demand shock from the global AI and technology investment cycle. Globally, the two are roughly offsetting each other, which is why the world number only slipped a tenth of a point. But the offset isn’t evenly distributed. Economies plugged into AI-related trade and manufacturing are seeing upgrades even when they’re energy importers. On the other hand, economies directly exposed to the war and not plugged into that tech cycle are seeing some of the sharpest cuts in the entire report.

The oil math behind the downgrade got more expensive, not cheaper. The Fund’s reference forecast assumes crude averages USD 89.27 a barrel in 2026 — 9% above the roughly USD 82 it assumed in April — before easing to USD 78.70 in 2027. The whole forecast rests on the Strait of Hormuz beginning to reopen this month and returning to pre-war conditions by March 2027. The IMF itself frames the risks around that timeline as more balanced than in April, but still tilted to the downside.

BACKGROUND- We flagged the fragility behind this exact picture a day before the IMF’s numbers landed. Oxford Economics had the global second-half acceleration at 3.1% annualized, contingent entirely on the US-Iran truce holding, and put the odds of that truce surviving at 50-50.

TASI	10,808	-0.4% (YTD: +3.0%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,440	-0.4% (YTD: +3.8%)
NomuC	22,732	+0.6% (YTD: -2.4%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	4.25% repo	3.75% reverse repo
EGX30	52,312	+0.5% (YTD: +25.1%)
ADX	9,936	+0.6% (YTD: -0.6%)
DFM	6,043	+0.9% (YTD: -0.1%)
S&P 500	7,575	+0.4% (YTD: +10.7%)
FTSE 100	10,497	+0.2% (YTD: +5.7%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,270	-0.2% (YTD: +8.2%)
Brent crude	USD 76.01	-0.4%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.94	-2.4%
Gold	USD 4,114	-0.7%
BTC	USD 64,302	+0.3% (YTD: -26.6%)
Sukuk/bond market index	910.86	-0.1% (YTD: -0.9%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	151.73	+0.1% (YTD: -0.1%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	15.03	-5.1% (YTD: +0.5%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI fell 0.4% on Thursday on turnover of SAR 4.1 bn. The index is up 3.0% YTD.

In the green: MESC (+10.0%), Luberef (+3.9%), and Avalon Pharma (+2.7%).

In the red: Rasan (-10.0%), Saudi Printing and Packaging (-7.1%), and Entaj (-6.1%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC rose 0.6% on Thursday on turnover of SAR 14.7 mn. The index is down 2.4% YTD.

In the green: Molan Steel (+11.2%), Al Muneef (+9.6%), and Taqat (+9.5%).

In the red: Aqaseem (-14.8%), Digital Research Co. (-14.6%), and Asas Makeen (-10.0%).

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

The CMA greenlit Axelerated Solutions’ request to double its capital to SAR 56 mn from SAR 28 mn through a one-for-one bonus share issue, according to a Tadawul disclosure. The increase will be funded by transferring SAR 28 mn from retained earnings, doubling the company’s outstanding shares, also from 28 mn to 56 mn. The proposal remains subject to shareholder approval at an extraordinary general assembly within six months.

CALENDAR

AUGUST

30 August-1 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Saudi Paper and Packaging Expo, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

31 August-3 September (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center - Malham.

SEPTEMBER

8-10 September (Tuesday-Thursday): The WTM Spotlight Riyadh, Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center (RFECC), Riyadh.

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

28 September-1 October (Monday-Thursday): The International Conference on Theory and Practice of Electronic Governance (ICEGOV), Prince Sultan University, Riyadh.

OCTOBER

25-26 October (Sunday-Monday): The Global Proptech Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): ACHEMA Middle East, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

30 October-1 November (Friday-Sunday): The New Global Sport Conference, Sofitel Hotel & Convention Centre, Riyadh.

NOVEMBER

11-12 November (Wednesday-Thursday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

16-19 November (Monday-Thursday): Cityscape Global, Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre (Malham), Riyadh.

29 November-1 December (Sunday-Tuesday): The UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2H: Sabic’s USD 6.4 bn Fujian project in China to start production;
November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh;
The World Economic Forum’s Global Collaboration and Growth Meeting, Jeddah;

2027

FEBRUARY

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): Energy Regulators Regional Association annual conference, Riyadh.

MARCH

21-25 March (Sunday-Thursday):The World Water Forum, Riyadh.

22–24 March (Monday-Wednesday): Capital Markets Forum, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh

APRIL

26-29 April (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

JUNE

1-3 June (Tuesday-Thursday): The Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed;
Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun takes place in Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

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