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Aramco’s pipeline pivot pays off

1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Hormuz remains “the X-factor” for Saudi Arabia’s 2026 budget

Good morning, friends. It is an earnings-heavy start to the day as a flood of high-profile 1Q financials roll in, led by a strong showing from the world’s largest oil producer. Aramco saw its net income jump 25% thanks to the East-West pipeline, though it tempered the upbeat results with a warning on the global energy backdrop.

Beyond the oil giant, the rest of the board showed mixed results as heavyweights like Acwa Power experienced softening due to temporary grid limits, while Luberef grew its bottom line on the strength of its byproduct margins, and MBC Group felt the impact of weaker advertising demand amid regional tensions.

Happening today

Dar Albalad’s retail subscription for its IPO continues, running until 14 May after it kicked off yesterday. The retail tranche offers 6.3 mn shares, about 30% of the firm’s share capital. Final allocations land on 18 May, and refunds will be processed by 21 May.

ICYMI- Strong demand for the institutional tranche last week set the final IPO price at the top of the range at SAR 9.75 per share, implying a transaction size of around SAR 205 mn (USD 55 mn). The pricing values the company at SAR 682 mn (USD 182 mn).

Watch this space

ECONOMY — Saudi’s deficit could narrow back below 4% — if Hormuz reopens: Jefferies International tells the Arabic press that the kingdom’s budget gap could shrink to under 4% of GDP this year, but the call hinges on shipping resuming through the Strait of Hormuz and Saudi crude exports picking up. The first-quarter blowout in the deficit was driven mostly by one-off, growth-supportive spending — capex in particular — rather than a structural problem, Alia Moubayed, the bank’s chief economist for MENA, says.

The oil math: Brent in the first three months of the year ran only about USD 4 above the same stretch in 2025, but Moubayed expects prices to rise 20-25% over the rest of the year as Iran-related supply disruptions feed through. The deficit print, though, will come down to volumes more than price.

Two scenarios are on the table: If exports stay around 5 mn bbl / d and Brent averages USD 90, with government spending up 10%, the deficit will widen meaningfully by year-end, she says. If exports and refined products climb closer to 7 mn bbl / d, the gap narrows to around 3.7%. The 2025 deficit came in at 5.8% of GDP.


TRANSPORT — Self-driving shuttles are coming to Quba Mosque: An autonomous bus will start working at one of Madinah’s busiest religious sites, with the Transport General Authority and the Madinah Region Development Authority kicking off a 60-day pilot at the Quba Mosque plazas, according to a post on X. The shuttle will run a 700-meter loop with multiple stops, including visitor pickup and drop-off points and a cargo-loading area.

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Data point

[wwtt3] 14.1% — that’s the y-o-y decline in the Kingdom’s Industrial Production Index in March 2026, due to a dip in mining and quarrying activity and manufacturing activity, according to data (pdf) from Gastat. The mining and quarrying sub-index decreased by 22.2% y-o-y, while manufacturing activity dipped by 4.7% y-o-y.

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The big story abroad

The US-Iran stalemate crowds the front pages once again. President Donald Trump dismissed Iran’s response to Washington’s latest proposal, calling the demands “totally unacceptable.” Tehran reportedly floated moving a portion of its highly enriched uranium reserves to a separate nation and refused to decommission its nuclear infrastructure — this account was later denied by Iran’s semi-official outlet Tasnim.

Pakistan-Iran talks seem to have made some headway, with Qatar managing to export itsfirst LNG cargo — bound for a Pakistani port — through the Strait of Hormuz since the conflict started. Islamabad reportedly expects three more vessels to ship Qatari LNG through the waterway in the coming days.

The regional conflict is set to dominate the agenda during Trump’s summit with Chinese President Xi Jinping in Beijing later this week. Both leaders have good reasons to resolve the Iran war, as it is taxing Trump’s domestic popularity and straining Beijing’s reliance on low-cost Iranian oil. Washington’s worries over AI and a proposed new dialogue with China are also reportedly on the table.

Meanwhile, in the world of AI: Alphabet has rapidly evolved into an AI powerhouse, significantly narrowing the valuation gap with chipmaking giant Nvidia. Analysts suggest that the strength of the Gemini model, combined with Google Search, Cloud, YouTube, and Waymo, positions the company as the primary contender to lead the next era of tech growth.

In a retrospective piece on the outgoing Federal Reserve Chair, Bloomberg chronicles Jerome Powell’s long battle to maintain the institution’s independence. Powell’s term saw heavy criticism from Trump, a probe from the Justice Department, and an unusual decision to stay on after his successor stepped up to assume the mantle.

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2

THE BIG STORY TODAY

Thank you, East-West pipeline

Aramco posted strong growth in its bottom line in the first quarter, weathering regional headwinds and crediting alternative pipelines that bypassed Hormuz. Still, the oil giant cautioned the global energy markets are in for a rough period and years of recovery if the strait does not open soon.

By the numbers: Net income was up 25% y-o-y to USD 32.5 bn in the first quarter. Higher oil prices and refining margins helped Aramco offset the impact of supply disruptions and attacks on energy infrastructure across the region.

Behind the resilience was Saudi’s rerouting infrastructure, which spared it — and the global energy market — the worst of the negative impacts of the Hormuz disruption.

The East-West pipeline “has proven itself to be a critical supply artery, helping to mitigate the impact of a global energy shock and providing relief to customers affected by shipping constraints,” CEO Amin Nasser said in the earnings statement(pdf).

REMEMBER- The pipeline helped Saudi reroute more than 7 mn bbl / d at its maximum capacity reached in March, with some 2 mn bbl / d headed to refineries and 5 mn bbl / d for exports. It was briefly disrupted in part earlier in April when a pumping station was hit, but throughput was restored in a matter of days.

The world is still in for a painful hit. Some 1 bn barrels of oil were lost from the markets in the last two months, Nasser told Reuters. Restoring stability will take some time, and years of underinvestment in energy inventories have made things worse, Nasser argued.

How much time until recovery? It’s all about how long Hormuz remains shut. Reopening the strait today could mean markets are set to recover in a few months. “But if trade and shipping remain curtailed by more than a few weeks from today, we anticipate the supply disruption to persist, and the market to normalize only in 2027,” Nasser said in an emailed statement to Bloomberg.

Staying the dividend course: The company is distributing USD 21.9 bn for the first quarter, up 3.5% y-o-y, and in line with an expected total dividend of USD 87.6 bn for the whole year.

The fine print: Aramco’s gearing ratio — a measure of indebtedness — was back up to 4.8% by the end of the quarter, after declining to 3.8% at the end of last year. Freecashflow dropped to USD 18.6 bn, “impacted by USD 15.8 bn of working capital build,” the statement said.

What’s next?

The real pricing effect is yet to show up in the next quarter: Crude averaged USD 79.60 / bbl in 1Q, much higher than the USD 64.10 at the end of 2025 and slightly higher than USD 76.30 in 1Q 2025. Brent crude is currently trading close to the USD 100 / bbl mark, setting Aramco up for an even bigger windfall in 2Q.

^^ Aramco will have more to say in an analyst call today.

3

EARNINGS WATCH

Energy, media, and industrial heavyweights post earnings

Acwa’s results soften as expansion across assets and markets continues

Acwa Power reported a softer start to 2026, with net income down 19.3% y-o-y to SAR 344.8 mn, according to its 1Q 2026 earnings (pdf). Still, revenues edged up 2.8% y-o-y to SAR 2 bn.

What hit the books: The y-o-y drop was largely driven by a high base in 1Q 2025, when development and construction revenues were boosted by exceptionally large project fees. This was compounded by a SAR 84 mn revenue dispute at the Al Kahfah and Ar Rass 2 solar plants in Saudi Arabia, where temporary grid dispatch limits restricted full capacity. On the upside, lower finance costs — helped by the absence of prior-year derivative losses — softened the impact.

Acwa has been aggressive this quarter, adding 0.77 GWh of battery storage and 0.6 mn cbm/d of desalination capacity during the quarter. It also advanced portfolio consolidation with the SAR 777 mn acquisition of Badeel’s 32% stake in Shuaibah Water and Electricity Company, lifting its effective ownership to 62%. Regionally, it secured its first greenfield project in Kuwait (Az-Zour North Phase 2 & 3), closed financing for the Nukus 2 wind project in Uzbekistan, and brought Rabigh 4 IWP and the Riverside PV + BESS project in Ukraine into commercial operation.

Scale is doing what scale does: Acwa’s portfolio stood at SAR 455 bn in assets under management across 109 projects as of end-March, with 95.7 GW of gross power capacity — 54.7% from renewables — and 9.7 mn cbm / d of desalination capacity. That footprint is set to expand further, with 32 projects under construction adding 44.2 GW of power and 2.6 mn cbm / d of water capacity.

Looking ahead: Recently appointed CEO Samir J. Serhan noted that the war had “no material adverse impact on our operational or financial performance to date.” However, the long-term impact of sustained disruptions remains to be seen.

Luberef’s by-products help offset softer oil margins

Saudi Aramco Base Oil Company (Luberef) posted a 16.5% y-o-y rise in net income to SAR 258 mn in 1Q 2026, as higher by-product margins and sales volumes offset softer base oil margins and volumes. Revenue, meanwhile, edged up 1.4% y-o-y to SAR 2.2 bn over the same period.

The company leaned into regional expansion during the period, entering Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait as part of its 2026 GCC growth strategy. At the same time, it continued to scale up its GIII base oils under the aramcoULTRA brand and to pursue OEM approvals with major additive companies, CEO Samer Abdulaziz Al Hokail said in its earnings release (pdf).

What’s next? The Growth II project is currently 71% complete and remains on track for delivery in 2H 2026, Al Hokail said. The company is also finalizing a replacement feedstock agreement under the Jeddah continuity framework to secure the GI base oil supply.

Saudi Chemical capitalizes on financial optimization

Saudi Chemical leaned on balance sheet gains to protect margins in 1Q 2026, posting a 5.9% y-o-y increase in its net income to SAR 87.2 mn in 1Q 2026. An increase in sales volumes also lifted revenues by 5.1% y-o-y to SAR 1.7 bn.

Growth was driven by tighter financial management and a sales boost. Lower-than-expected credit losses on trade receivables, reduced finance costs, and gains recognized from the revaluation of derivative financial instruments tied to interest rate exposure all helped buoy margins.

MBC leans on Shahid’s income and Ramadan demand

MBC Group saw weaker advertising and project finalization in 1Q, partially offset by stronger Ramadan demand and MBC Shahid’s solid income. The company reported a 14.6% y-o-y decline in net income to SAR 198 mn in 1Q 2026, according to its Tadawul disclosure. Revenue declined by 22.9% y-o-y to SAR 1.6 bn during the same period, according to its earnings (pdf).

Behind the performance: The drop was mainly due to weaker advertising demand amid ongoing geopolitical tensions and the expiration of some broadcasting and technical services contracts. This was partly offset by stronger profitability from MBC Shahid (SAR 47.4 mn) and robust Ramadan-driven content demand.

Geopolitics will still have an impact: Geopolitical disruptions and the resulting macroeconomic developments are expected to continue affecting MBC’s advertising demand, government spending priorities, and operational conditions across the region this year. The current situation at Hormuz is relatively calm as Washington awaits Tehran’s response to its latest proposals.

What’s next? The group announced its segment projections, with its broadcasting and other commercial activities’ net income margins expected to be between 7-9% in 2026, recovering to 20% to 15% over the medium term. MBC Shahid is expected to break even in 2027, while media and entertainment profitability will continue to be stable, with net income margins between 2-4%.

Medgulf lifted by health and motor sectors amid post-merger gains

Mediterranean and Gulf Ins. and Reins. (Medgulf) rebounded in 1Q 2026. The insurer’s bottom line jumped 84.6% y-o-y to SAR 36.2 mn during 1Q 2026, while revenue climbed 25.1% y-o-y to SAR 1.3 bn during the same period, according to its Tadawul disclosure. The recovery comes after a difficult 2025, when net income fell 59.7% y-o-y to just SAR 41.1 mn for the full year.

Capital market gains and core ins. momentum both supported the uplift, with investment income rising 84% and underwriting performance improving, alongside 11% growth in gross written premiums. Gains were broad-based across motor (up SAR 160 mn) and health (up SAR 94.6 mn), helping drive net ins. service results to nearly three times their level a year earlier.

Fruits of the merger? Medgulf merged with Buruj Cooperative Ins. in October to boost its solvency and create the fourth-largest ins. player in the Kingdom. Since the consolidation, its balance sheet has improved, with accumulated losses narrowing to 5.6% of capital in March from 8.2% in December.

Bawan declines in 1Q

Bawan’s quarterly results were dragged down by weaker core segments and geopolitical disruptions, according to its Tadawul disclosure. Net income declined by 65.2% y-o-y to SAR 51.9 mn in 1Q 2026, while revenue increased by 13.3% y-o-y to SAR 1 bn. A drop in regional demand and greater pricing pressure squeezed the firm’s margins.

Al Hammadi’s operating costs offset its strong pharma and retail income

Our friends at Al Hammadi Holding faced elevated operating costs despite exceptional pharma and retail performance. The company’s net income declined by 23.9% y-o-y to SAR 56.2 mn in 1Q 2026, according to its Tadawul disclosure. Revenue rose by 5.7% y-o-y to SAR 319.1 mn during the same period.

The decline was caused by a sharp increase in operating costs and credit provisions. Total G&A, selling and marketing expenses increased by 41.5% y-o-y to SAR 36.9 mn, driven by higher advertising costs linked to the Al Hammadi Hospitals Group rebranding.

Still, pharma and retail sales bolstered performance amid expansion plans. The revenue increase was supported by higher income from the pharma products segment, which rose by 17.7% y-o-y to reach SAR 72.2 mn, and a rise in retail sales through the firm’s subsidiary.

Dividends: Al Hammadi’s board of directors recommended distributing SAR 32 mn in dividends for this quarter on 14 June, equivalent to SAR 0.20 per share, according to an announcement.

Sports broadcasting and one-off gain drive SRMG’s 1Q performance

Saudi Research and Media Group (SRMG) started 2026 on a steady note, with net income rising 6.9% y-o-y to SAR 33.1 mn in 1Q 2026, according to a Tadawul filing. Revenue increased 18.3% y-o-y to SAR 769.6 mn, supported by stronger sports broadcasting activity and a one-off structural gain in its industrial arm.

Growth was led by the publishing, visual, and digital content segment, boosted by broadcasting major events, including the Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques Cup, Saudi Pro League, and Saudi Super Cup, alongside solid momentum in PR and advertising. The bottom line also benefited from a SAR 31.4 mn one-off gain from converting loans to equity in the printing and packaging segment, partially offsetting softer volumes in that business.

Mixed signals in the fine print: Despite higher net income, total comprehensive results swung to a SAR 30.5 mn loss versus a SAR 38 mn gain a year earlier. Equity also took a 10.7% y-o-y hit to SAR 2.9 bn, though retained earnings remained solid at SAR 2.4 bn, supporting the group’s ongoing shift toward digital and sports-led content.

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ALSO ON OUR RADAR

Modern Mills greenlights food ingredients plant

Modern Mills is set to add 42k tons to its annual production capacity through a new food ingredients plant in western Saudi Arabia, backed by a SAR 87.7 mn investment, according to a Tadawul disclosure. The project aims to expand the firm’s value-added food portfolio. Preliminary work is set to start in 3Q 2026, pending regulatory approvals. The project will be funded through internal resources, shariah-compliant bank facilities, and other financing programs.

5

PLANET FINANCE

It’s a chip off the Abu Dhabi block

The largest US tech IPO of 2026 — a UAE-backed AI chipmaker — will price an already overflowing book this week. Cerebras’ offering of 30 mn shares is already 20x covered, with the California-based business expected to raise its price range by USD 35 per share to USD 150-160 as early as today, Reuters reports, citing people it says are in the know. The top of the rumored range implies a market cap of roughly USD 34 bn at listing (up from USD 23 bn in February) and IPO proceeds of about USD 4.8 bn (up from USD 3.5 bn originally), by our math.

Read this as the moment US capital markets put a number on Abu Dhabi's AI thesis. UAE entities make up 86% of the AI chipmaker’s revenue. Mohamed bin Zayed University of AI, the research anchor of the UAE's entire AI strategy, accounted for 62% of the firm's 2025 top line, and Abu Dhabi-backed AI firm G42 accounted for 24%, according to the prospectus. G42 alone drove 85% of Cerebras’ revenue in 2024.

ICYMI- The AI chipmaker first filed to go public in 2024, but the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US opened a formal investigation into G42’s minority position over concerns that G42’s ties to Chinese tech companies could undermine US export controls and give Beijing access to advanced AI chips. The move was ultimately cleared after Cerebras restructured G42’s equity stake into non-voting shares with no board influence, following some diplomatic lifting by UAE national security advisor Tahnoun bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

The commercial tie-up runs deeper than any shareholding anyway. The semiconductor firm is also deploying AI infrastructure inside the UAE’s Stargate project — the cluster being built alongside Nvidia, OpenAI, and Oracle, which is set to be operational this year with an initial 200 MW capacity, ITP reports, making the case for Cerebras as the compute backbone of a sovereign AI strategy.

The pitch? Cerebras is a credible Nvidia alternative with wafer-scale chips, backed by OpenAI compute demand and AWS. The business printed headline net income last year — driven by a non-operating accounting gain — with its top line up 20-fold in three years, according to ITP. Whether the market is right to price in a smooth transition to a more global revenue mix — implied by the OpenAI and AWS agreements but not yet visible in the financials — is the open question underneath the 20x book.

A live test case for the model: If Cerebras’ IPO prices well and trades above offer, it validates Abu Dhabi's early wager on AI infrastructure and gives the UAE-backed play a clean read-through in public markets, ITP’s Pavneet Kaur argues. It also sets the “template” moving forward that GCC participation comes with tighter guardrails around control and access to sensitive US tech.

ADVISORS- Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Barclays, and UBS are quarterbacking the transaction, among others.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets are mixed in early trading this morning as investors try to digest rising geopolitical tension and rising crude prices. The Nikkei is down over 0.3%, while South Korea’s Kospi is looking at gains that pushed it to fresh highs. It remains unclear how Wall Street will open, with futures fluctuating between gains and losses.

TASI

11,115

+0.8% (YTD: +6.0%)

MSCI Tadawul 30

1,490

+0.9% (YTD: +7.4%)

NomuC

22,644

0.0% (YTD: -2.8%)

USD : SAR (SAMA)

USD 3.75 Sell

USD 3.75 Buy

Interest rates

4.25% repo

3.75% reverse repo

EGX30

54,629

+1.9% (YTD: +30.6%)

ADX

9,840

-0.4% (YTD: -1.6%)

DFM

5,902

-0.5% (YTD: -2.4%)

S&P 500

7,399

+0.8% (YTD: +8.1%)

FTSE 100

10,233

-0.4% (YTD: +3.0%)

Euro Stoxx 50

5,912

-1.0% (YTD: +2.0%)

Brent crude

USD 105.06

+3.7%

Natural gas (Nymex)

USD 2.76

-0.4%

Gold

USD 4,529

-0.1%

BTC

USD 81,636

+1.3% (YTD: -6.8%)

Sukuk/bond market index

919.85

-0.1% (YTD: +0.1%)

S&P MENA bond & sukuk

151.88

-0.1% (YTD: 0.0%)

VIX (Volatility Index

17.19

+0.6% (YTD: +15.0%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI rose 0.8% yesterday on turnover of SAR 4.9 bn. The index is up 6.0% YTD.

In the green: Elm (+5.4%), Middle East Paper (+5.3%), and Catrion Catering Holding (+5.0%).

In the red: National Medical Care (-10.0%), Saudi Arabian Amiantit (-7.0%), and Advanced Building Industries (-6.6%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC was flat yesterday on turnover of SAR 23 mn. The index is down 2.8% YTD.

In the green: Foods Gate Trading (+10.0%), Axelerated Solutions (+8.0%), and Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons (+7.3%).

In the red: Wajd Life Trading (-10.7%), Mulkia Investment (-9.1%), and Alshehili Company for Metal Industries (-7.5%).


MAY

3-9 May (Sunday-Sunday): The Global Sustainability Expo, The Arena Riyadh Venue.

24-28 May (Sunday-Thursday): Eid Al Adha holiday.

JUNE

15-17 June (Monday-Wednesday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Food Exhibition and Conference, Riyadh Front Expo.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Print & Pack, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Riyadh International Industry Week, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Plastics & Petrochem, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

21-24 June (Sunday-Wednesday): Saudi Smart Logistics, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

22-24 June (Monday-Wednesday): The Future Hospitality Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

JULY

6 July-23 August (Monday-Sunday): Esports World Cup, Riyadh.

AUGUST

30 August-1 September (Sunday-Tuesday): The Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

31 August-3 September (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center - Malham.

SEPTEMBER

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

28 September-1 October (Monday-Thursday): The International Conference on Theory and Practice of Electronic Governance (ICEGOV), Prince Sultan University, Riyadh.

OCTOBER

12-15 October (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): ACHEMA Middle East, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

NOVEMBER

25-29 November (Wednesday-Sunday): Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun, Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

  • The World Water Forum takes place in Riyadh;
  • The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
  • Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed;
  • Capital Markets Forum takes place in March in Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

  • The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

2027

FEBRUARY

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): Energy Regulators Regional Association annual conference, Riyadh.

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