What SpaceX’s IPO means for the Gulf

The largest IPO in history is here: SpaceX filed its prospectus with the Securities and Exchange Commission last night setting the stage for it to kick off the global roadshow on 4 June. Pricing is expected as early as 11 June, with a listing on Nasdaq 12 June at a target valuation of USD 1.75 tn, targeting USD 70-75 bn in proceeds. The previous record was Saudi Aramco’s USD 29.4 bn listing in 2019, and SpaceX is on track to clear that by more than 2x.

The Gulf is positioned on every side of this trade — as investor, as competitor, and as the reference point against which SpaceX is being priced. Mubadala has historic exposure through the Vision Fund, and multiple GCC family offices have ridden the secondary market valuation ladder from USD 100 bn in 2021 to USD 1.25 tn after the February xAI merger to USD 1.75 tn at IPO. PIF has been a SpaceX equity holder since 2021.

What does the prospectus tell us? SpaceX incurred around USD 4.3 bn in losses in 1Q 2026, bringing in revenues of USD 4.7 bn in the same period. During 1Q 2025, net losses amounted to USD 528 mn along with revenues of around USD 4 bn. The filing also places the par value of Class A common stock at USD 0.001 per share.

Elon Musk remains comfortably in charge, with his ownership of some Class A shares and most Class B shares giving the world’s richest man 85.1% of the voting power. The filling clarifies that Musk will remain at the wheel following the IPO.

The Polymarket consensus puts the closing market cap above USD 2 tn at 47% probability. For the GCC LPs who entered at single-digit-bn valuations, the listing is a generational liquidity event — paper gains crystallize on Day One, and the secondary-sale lockup expires September or October.

PIF recently cut its international allocation target from 30% to 20% in April under its 2026/2030 strategy. If SpaceX IPOs with USD 70-75 bn in proceeds, this could give GCC SWFs a sudden distributable capital injection at exactly the moment the strategic direction is redirected home, instead of outward.

Aramco’s 2019 IPO was the largest in history because it was a sovereign listing — Saudi Arabia going public, in effect, with Aramco as the vehicle. SpaceX is the opposite: a private-sector listing whose physical infrastructure (Starlink ground stations, Starbase, defense contracts) is increasingly a foreign-policy instrument.

The comparison matters because every major US listing for the next 18 months — OpenAI at USD 852 bn, Anthropic at USD 900 bn+, the rest of the AI infrastructure pipeline — will be measured against SpaceX. The Gulf capital markets ecosystem that built itself around the 2019 listing now has to compete with a US ecosystem that has decisively reclaimed mega-cap listing primacy.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are up in early trading this morning, with Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi rebounding strongly from earlier losses. Stronger-than-expected 1Q Nvidia earnings and vessels making their way through Hormuz fueled the rally.

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI was flat yesterday on turnover of SAR 5.3 bn. The index is up 4.7% YTD.

In the green: Dar Albalad (+28.2%), Kingdom Holding (+6.3%), and Savola Group (+6.2%).

In the red: Tasheel (-8.1%), Tadco (-4.8%), and Enaya (-4.1%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC rose 0.2% yesterday on turnover of SAR 18.1 mn. The index is down 2.2% YTD.

In the green: Asas Makeen (+10.4%), Ratio (+8.9%), and Alnaqool (+8.4%).

In the red: Albattal Factory (-10.9%), Service Equipment (-9.3%), and National Building and Marketing (-6.4%).

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Banque Saudi Fransi (BSF) shareholders approved a SAR 1.3 bn dividend distribution for 2H 2025 at SAR 0.52 per share, according to a press release (pdf). The distribution brings BSF’s total dividend payout for the full year to some SAR 2.7 bn, or SAR 1.07 per share.