Good morning, all. We have another busy issue to wrap up the week, led by the landmark trade agreement between the Gulf and the UK, which is said to add bns to the UK economy every year.
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OIL — Saudi Arabia’s crude oil exports dropped to a record low of 5 mn bbl / d in March, down 2.3 mn bbl / d, according to Jodi data. Refinery crude throughput dropped by 746k bbl / d to 2.3 mn bbl / d. Crude production also fell by 3.9 mn bbl / d to a record low of 7 mn bbl / d. Meanwhile, direct crude burn also increased by 82k bbl / d to 330k bbl / d.
The culprit is hardly a surprise: Flows passing through the Strait of Hormuz were completely disrupted when the conflict erupted in early March. Ramping up exports via the East-West pipeline and using inventories stored abroad “should have helped the Kingdom to recover exports later in the month,” UBS analyst Giovanni Staunovo told Reuters.
REMEMBER- Opec and the IEA both cut their 2026 global oil demand growth outlooks amid the war’s economic fallout. Opec now expects demand growth of 1.2 mn bbl / d in 2026, down from 1.4 mn bbl / d previously. The IEA, meanwhile, flipped from forecasting a surplus to projecting a 1.8 mn bbl / d supply deficit in 2026.
AVIATION — Tickets for Riyadh Air’s Riyadh-London route are now up for sale. The airline is introducing its first commercial Boeing 787-9 Dreamliners starting 1 July, after flying the route using its technical spare “Jamila” aircraft since October 2025, according to a press release.
Part of a wider plan: The airline had plans to expand to 100 cities by 2030 and add two destinations every two months. The official summer rollout comes as analysts question whether Riyadh Air’s ambitious plans are viable amid regional turbulence that is still affecting the wider aviation industry in the Gulf and beyond.
Sports
Esports hosting honors shift from Riyadh to Paris: This year’s Esports World Cup (EWC) tournament will be hosted in Paris instead of Riyadh due to the “current regional situation,” according to a statement by the annual sporting event.
Why this matters: By shifting to Paris, the Esports World Cup is dealing a major blow to the Kingdom’s PIF-backed gaming strategy, which is important for diversification efforts under Vision 2030 and for expanding Saudi Arabia’s cultural footprint. Last year’s EWC hit viewership records, drawing 750 mn global viewers.
What about the Esports Nations Cup? The statement did not comment on the status of the Esports Nations Cup (ENC) — last we heard, the biennial tournament is set to debut in Riyadh this November.
Data point
10.2% — that’s how much the Kingdom’s Operating Revenues Index rose y-o-y in March, according to Gastat’s Short-Term Business Indicators report (pdf). The annual increase was driven mainly by gains in mining and quarrying (25.5%), financial and ins. activities (17.6%), wholesale and retail trade and motor vehicle repair (4.6%), construction (4.8%), and manufacturing (4%). The only sector to contract was professional, scientific, and technical activities, which fell by 0.8%.
ALSO- The Employees Compensation Index jumped 10% y-o-y. Meanwhile, issued building permits dropped 0.7% y-o-y, even as construction compensation rose 7.9% annually.
PSA
Traffic on Othman bin Affan Road will be temporarily diverted starting today, with three main lanes active in each direction, as the development of the axis’ intersection with King Salman Road commences, SPA reports.
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The big story abroad
We’re inching closer to what will be the largest IPO ever after SpaceX filed publicly late last night. Now the world is sitting tight in anticipation of the rocket maker’s imminent Nasdaq debut. We dive into the full story and what it means for the Gulf in this morning’s Planet Finance, below.
The return of monetary tightening? The latest meeting minutes from the Federal Reserve indicate the central bank’s willingness to raise interest rates if inflation maintains its growth trajectory above 2%. Prior to this development, CME Group data showed interest rate futures markets pricing in a nearly 50% chance of at least one quarter point rate hike in 2026.
Meanwhile, in the tech world: Nvidia announced USD 80 bn in stock buybacks and an increase in its dividend payout yesterday, after 1Q sales grew 85% y-o-y to USD 81.6 bn, surpassing expectations.
More on the Warner Bros. buyout: To finance Paramount’s takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery, Bank of America and Citigroup are gauging investor appetite for a massive debt package. Early talks indicate a mix of around USD 30 bn in high-grade bonds, USD 12 bn in junk bonds, and USD 7.5 bn in loans.


