Hold that strike

1

WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: The events calendar shifts again as FII and Formula E move to 2027

Good morning, all. Riyadh spent the weekend working two diplomatic channels at once: urging Washington to hold off on striking Iran and pressing Europe to blacklist the Houthis as a terrorist group. In the meantime, drones and missiles hit the Kingdom’s south and its oil infrastructure.

Beyond the front lines, the economic picture is mixed. On the confident side, Saudi’s asset-management industry grew 20% through the first half and is on track for USD 400 bn next year, with foreign managers taking a bigger slice of the business. The same appetite shows up in the boardroom, where multinationals already in the Kingdom are holding their ground. On the cautious side, prospective entrants are delaying new setups until the picture clears.

Today’s 3Q earnings are also a mixed bag. A run of industrials — including Saudi Energy, Senaat, MESC, and Sinad — grew revenue, only to watch higher costs and paper losses eat the bottom line.

Calendar moves

The Kingdom’s events calendar is getting another reshuffle, as regional escalation pushes back marquee investment and sports gatherings.

The Future Investment Initiative (FII) is being pushed back a year. The FII Institute moved its tenth edition to 25-28 October 2027 in Riyadh, from 26-29 October 2026. The later date should secure stronger international turnout for the milestone edition, FII Institute CEO Maha bint Mishari bin Abdulaziz said.

Formula E has pushed its Jeddah double-header to 16-17 April 2027 from 18-19 December 2026 because of the regional conflict, meaning Saudi will host the season’s sixth and seventh races instead of the opener. The championship will now kick off in Mexico City on 16 January. The decision was agreed upon with the PIF and FIA to give the situation more time to settle, Formula E CEO Jeff Dodds said. No replacement venue is being considered, and if April proves unworkable, a shorter calendar is more likely, with a decision due by mid- to late February.

Not every move is a delay. Knowledge Economic City signed on as host partner of the Future Hospitality Summit Saudi Arabia 2027, bringing the forum to the DoubleTree by Hilton at Madinah Gate on 13-14 April 2027, after four editions in Riyadh.

Oil flows back

Saudi Arabia’s crude and refined petroleum exports have averaged 8.57 mn bbl / d so far this quarter, some 37% higher than the 3Q average of 6.25 mn bbl / d, Asharq Business reports, citing Vortexa shipment-tracking data through 11 November. The rise comes as oil exports through the Strait of Hormuz returned to pre-war levels in October. Prices remain high — Morgan Stanley expects Dated Brent to average USD 105 / bbl in 4Q, up from USD 63.7 a year earlier.

October did much of the heavy lifting. Crude exports averaged 7.52 mn bbl / d last month and have since eased to 5.77 mn bbl / d, putting November on track to be the third-highest month for crude exports since the war began. Refined-product shipments also slipped to 1.39 mn bbl / d from 1.55 mn. More than 3 mn bbl / d of November crude has shipped from Gulf terminals, and c. 2.5 mn bbl / d moved through Red Sea ports.

Will the rebound ease budget pressure? Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank chief economist Monica Malik expects higher prices and output to lift Saudi oil revenues and Aramco’s royalty payments in 4Q, forecasting the fiscal deficit to narrow to 5.2% of GDP this year from 5.8% in 2025. Former IMF Saudi mission head Tim Callen is less optimistic, warning that government spending usually rises toward year-end, which could push the deficit toward SAR 300 bn, or 6% of GDP. The Kingdom recorded an SAR 244.3 bn deficit in 9M 2026, exceeding the SAR 165.4 bn it planned for the full year.

Courting foreign buyers in Makkah

Sulaiman Al Rajhi Real Estate plans to speed up its investments in Makkah, expecting foreign-ownership rules to widen its potential buyer pool to 2 bn people from around 20 mn, CEO Moath Al Makhdob told Asharq Business (watch, runtime: 4:36).

The pipeline: Its Tilal Village project — among the zones opened to non-Saudi Muslim buyers — has some 3k residential units due in 2027 and 2028, plus 55k sqm of new commercial space. On the hospitality side, subsidiary Tilal Hospitality for Hajj has agreed to host 17k Pakistani pilgrims and plans six hotels with around 830 rooms in Madinah within three to four years, on top of the c. 6k rooms it already runs in Makkah.

REMEMBER- After the foreign property ownership rules took effect in January, private and foreign capital has been flowing into Makkah’s transport, real estate, and hospitality projects. This includes the Hajj-season transport project Wasel Al Haram, the Royal Commission’s redevelopment projects across six districts, Umm Al Qura’s sale of a Masar plot for a hospitality tower, and Indonesian sovereign fund Danantara’s SAR 6 bn commitment to hotels and retail at Thakher Makkah.

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The big story abroad

Microsoft apologized on Friday for a global outage that cut off businesses, schools, and governments from Outlook, Teams, and other workplace tools. The company blamed “an issue during an earlier network capacity upgrade that surfaced following a recent network change,” rather than a cyberattack or anything AI-related. Microsoft said the service is showing “broad recovery and stability” and has promised a full post-incident report once a review is complete.

Airlines canceled 4.5k US flights and pushed back another 4.4k yesterday, with the country still reeling from the longest nationwide flight shutdown since the 9/11 attacks, Reuters reports. A major communications breakdown on Friday led US aviation authorities to ground almost every departing flight across the country for almost five hours. Transportation Secretary Sean Duffy traced the disruption to at least one new router that FAA contractor L3Harris had installed at a remote site, and is seeking USD 50 bn to modernize the country’s air traffic control systems.

Some 106k people protested across France yesterday, including 24k in Paris, according to the Interior Ministry. Demonstrators took to the streets over issues ranging from rising living costs to a proposal to give police greater legal protection. The protests were smaller than other recent demonstrations. The ministry said the situation is largely under control despite clashes in several cities, including Marseille, Lyon, and Lille, where projectiles were thrown at security forces.

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FII Hormuz Makkah Oil WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

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WAR WATCH

Saudi Arabia works the phones with Washington and Europe as the Houthi fight continues at home

Saudi Arabia is tackling the war along two tracks. On the ground, drones and missiles are hitting its south and its oil infrastructure while the coalition shoots them down; on the diplomatic side, Riyadh is leaning on Washington to hold off on Iran, pressing Europe to blacklist the Houthis, and lining up regional troops.

Riyadh is lobbying Washington to hold its fire on Iran. Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman pressed US President Donald Trump to hold off on new strikes in calls over the past two weeks, arguing that sanctions on Tehran are already doing the work, Reuters reported. Trump has since told advisers he may refrain from fresh attacks absent new provocations from Iran or the Houthis, three people familiar with the matter said, and Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan pressed the same case.

Trump has made no commitment either way, and the US military is positioned to escalate, with a third aircraft carrier moving into the region. “I could end it immediately, but at the request of the nations that I am looking to protect, we are doing it a little bit longer way, a bit more civilly,” he told US broadcaster Stephen A. Smith on Thursday. Israeli officials, meanwhile, are pushing for renewed strikes.

The stakes are showing in the Gulf’s shipping lanes. Two oil tankers caught fire in the eastern Strait of Hormuz on Saturday after striking a naval mine, Iran’s navy said in a Tasnim statement. It did not identify the vessels, their flags, or the damage, and there was no independent confirmation, per Anadolu.

Riyadh is also squeezing the Houthis diplomatically. Saudi Arabia is pressing the EU to designate the group a terrorist organization but has not overcome European concerns that a listing could undermine a future Yemen peace process, Reuters reports, citing six European officials. The step needs unanimity among the 27 member states, and only a few back it so far. The Houthis already face EU sanctions and a symbolic European Parliament resolution from last month, and a listing would carry limited practical effect while risking Houthi retaliation against European vessels, RUSI’s Joana de Deus Pereira told Reuters. France has called for more pressure on the group but stopped short of endorsing a listing.

Regional military backing, meanwhile, is still being scoped out. Syria is weighing whether to send thousands of troops to Saudi Arabia and Yemen, with reconnaissance teams already scouting positions, three Syrian military and Yemeni officials told The New York Times; any deployment would likely fall under the Makkah Pact it is considering joining — which Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan signed in August — and would aim to guard Saudi borders from Houthi ground incursions. No decision has been made, and Syria’s foreign minister said its troops are not in Yemen and there are no imminent plans to send them.

Others have already committed. Egypt last week confirmed its troops are already on Saudi soil, the UK is deploying fighter jets to defend Saudi cities and infrastructure, and France has offered radar systems to protect Yanbu. Washington is also supplying intelligence and refueling, though Trump has rebuffed Saudi appeals to strike the Houthis directly.

A fresh wave of strikes

On the energy front, the Houthis said they hit pumping station seven on the East-West Pipeline twice, attacked an Aramco facility in Riyadh, targeted pumping station three east of Riyadh, and struck the Yanbu oil facility with a missile. They also claimed drone strikes on a military cargo plane at Sharurah Airport and on King Khalid International Airport, and a missile hit on Khamis Mushait Air Base.

On the ground, the group claimed six ballistic missiles hit troop concentrations at Kharaz camp and other sites in southern Yemen’s Ras Al Ara, Kharaz, and Lahj, causing dozens of casualties. Further missiles targeted forces in Khawr Amira, Jizan, and Al Jawf Governorate, while ballistic missiles and drones set weapons depots ablaze at Ras Abbas camp in Aden Governorate. In the air, the Houthis claimed to have shot down a Saudi military CH-4 armed reconnaissance drone over Al Jawf.

The Saudi-led coalition said it intercepted and destroyed three drones in the Eastern Region and two in the Riyadh area. Saudi Civil Defense said separately that debris from two ballistic missiles launched toward the Makkah region fell on Sabouha village, among other places. The Houthis also claimed the Saudi air force carried out 72 airstrikes on civilian sites in Saada, Taiz, Lahj, and Al Jawf, putting the total since the escalation began at over 5k.

Tags:

Diplomacy Houthis Iran WAR WATCH Yemen

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ECONOMY

Saudi asset management grows through war, pushes toward USD 400 bn - Fitch

One corner of Saudi finance is still growing through the war, and so is foreign appetite for it. The Kingdom’s Industry assets under management (AUM), the Gulf’s largest, expanded 20% y-o-y to about USD 370 bn in the first half and total AUM should surpass USD 400 bn in 2027, Fitch Ratings said, calling it resilient despite the volatility battering much else. The industry now equals 27% of GDP, up from 23% a year earlier.

“Growth is likely to continue, supported by stronger investor demand, regulatory progress, and rising foreign participation,” said Fitch Global Head of Islamic Finance Bashar Al Natoor. He flagged geopolitics, oil prices, and interest rates as the main risks, but said a strong domestic investor base cushions the sector.

Private capital is doing the heavy lifting: Private funds make up 55% of assets after growing 31%, led by real estate and equities, with family offices among the biggest backers; discretionary portfolios account for another 27% and public funds 18%, the latter up 19%. On a narrower measure, the investment-fund sector alone crossed SAR 1 tn at end-June, with the number of funds up nearly 30% to 2.2k, Arab News reports.

The foreign money is a surprise: International and regional managers lifted their share of industry revenue to 18.5% in 2Q, from 12.5% two years earlier, and foreign ownership of the main market’s freefloat held at 12% through October’s turbulence, helped by Riyadh scrapping direct-access qualification rules in February.

Why it matters: The growth runs against the grain of the bank-liquidity squeeze playing out alongside it, and the two may be connected. As depositors chase yield out of low-cost accounts, some of that money is likely moving into funds, while foreign appetite for Saudi paper helps finance the very deficit squeezing the banks. Regulators are pulling liquidity onshore, too: the Capital Market Authority (CMA) capped public money-market funds’ overseas holdings at 5% of their net asset value and, in October, proposed tighter fund-disclosure rules.

The ballast is Islamic finance and credit quality. Almost all Tadawul mutual funds are shariah-compliant, and Fitch’s Al Natoor calls Islamic finance “a structural strength of the Saudi market, not a niche”; nearly all Saudi sukuk, and 96% of the Tadawul entities Fitch rates, are investment grade.

What’s next: Watch whether the foreign inflows into debt and funds hold if the war drags on, and whether the path to USD 400 bn survives the oil-price and rate risks Fitch flags.

Tags:

asset management Capital Market Authority ECONOMY Fitch Ratings

4

BUSINESS

Established foreign firms hold their Saudi footprint while new setups wait for clarity

Multinationals operating in Saudi Arabia are staying put despite the recent attacks, with the hesitation showing up instead in new setup decisions as risk teams wait for more clarity before committing, Zaid Al Mashari, co-founder and group CEO of Riyadh-based consultancy and business support company Proven Arabia, tells EnterpriseAM. “I don't see really anybody leaving,” Al Mashari says, adding that none of the multinational clients he works with have pulled staff or scaled back in the Kingdom. He expects demand for new setups to pick up again once the picture clears, with Saudi Arabia remaining the region’s main base.

Clients in the sectors most exposed to flight disruption — including event management — have taken a hit but are holding on, Al Mashari says. This impact has been most visible as the Houthis target Saudi airports, ports, and oil facilities. The largest barrage came last Sunday, when the group said it targeted Riyadh’s airport, Aramco facilities, and the King Abdullah Financial District. The Energy Ministry said debris from an attempted attack caused minor damage to an Aramco building in Riyadh.

Proven has handled company setup, Saudization, corporate immigration, and payroll compliance for foreign firms entering the Kingdom since 2009. Global corporate services firm TMF Group, a long-time partner, acquired that division in 2023 as it built its Saudi presence. Al Mashari continues to work with multinational clients on their workforce planning in the Kingdom. The group employs 700-800 people across offices in Riyadh, Dubai, Kuwait, Egypt, India and, most recently, Hong Kong.

Proven runs an IT unit covering enterprise automation, robotics, and its own AI product, Sanad, plus a smart energy system that Al Mashari says cuts electricity bills at labor camps and schools by up to 30%. It also manages some 35 labor camps in Dubai housing 30k workers. The company now exports Saudi-built services to the rest of the Gulf, Al Mashari says. Multinationals it served in Riyadh asked it to follow them into Dubai and Kuwait.

Demand to set up in the Kingdom has come mostly from UK, Indian, and US firms, with Chinese companies a fast-growing recent addition, Al Mashari says. Many international firms are also moving in from Dubai, most of them landing in Riyadh.

What these new-entrance companies want from the process has changed. Where foreign firms used to look for a Saudi partner to navigate setup, they now establish independently and ask for the full compliance cost up front, from government fees to Saudization and withholding tax.

The wage floor: Most of the multinationals Al Mashari works with already pay Saudi staff SAR 7-8k (USD 1,870-2,130) a month, well clear of the Kingdom’s Saudization threshold, he says. The minimum a Saudi employee must earn to count fully toward a company’s Nitaqat quota rises from SAR 4k to SAR 5k on 25 April 2027, and to SAR 6k a year later. Saudi employees paid below the floor count as only half a hire.

Proven runs an internal simulator against every new regulation to map where Saudi hires should sit. “If you treat Saudization as a capability, not as a cost, you will win the market,” Al Mashari said. Finding qualified Saudis is no longer the hard part, he tells us. Proven’s engineering and IT teams include fresh graduates hired from Taif and Hail who built the company's internal platform.

Tags:

BUSINESS Offices RHQ

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EARNINGS WATCH

Costs and paper losses hold Saudi industrials’ earnings behind revenue

Bigger grid, tighter margins

Saudi Energy’s expanding grid drove another quarter of double-digit revenue growth in 3Q, but higher operating and financing costs left its bottom line broadly flat. Consolidated net income edged up 0.4% y-o-y to SAR 5.35 bn as revenue climbed 12.9% to SAR 35.04 bn and operating income rose just 0.9% to SAR 7.08 bn, according to a Tadawul filing. Higher maintenance costs, borrowing costs tied to its capex plans, lower other income, and increased administrative expenses weighed on earnings, partially offset by lower expected credit loss provisions and stronger contributions from equity-accounted investments, per the filing and the company’s earnings release.

Revenue growth is coming from grid expansion rather than demand. Electricity sold increased just 1% to 276.9 TWh over nine months, while Saudi Energy’s regulated asset base expanded 16.6% y-o-y to SAR 278.8 bn by September as completed transmission and distribution projects entered the network. The expansion increased the revenue allowed under its regulatory framework, and infrastructure project contracts, higher pass-through costs, and customer growth provided additional support. The growing network has also brought higher operating and borrowing costs, a pressure already evident in Saudi Energy’s 2Q results.

Earnings also lagged revenue in 9M, as consolidated net income rose 4.3% y-o-y to SAR 12.08 bn against an 11.5% increase in revenue to SAR 87.24 bn, with higher operating and finance costs absorbing part of the gains. Operating income increased 4.7% to SAR 16.88 bn. Of the consolidated net income, SAR 6.78 bn was attributable to holders of the company’s Mudaraba financing instrument, leaving SAR 5.30 bn for ordinary shareholders against SAR 4.91 bn a year earlier.

Senaat’s earnings go cold

Advanced Building Industries (Senaat) saw its net income nearly wiped out in 3Q 2026, down 98.6% y-o-y to SAR 1 mn from SAR 75.6 mn, while revenue dropped 9.1% to SAR 1.43 bn, according to a Tadawul filing. Operating income fell 68.7% to SAR 38 mn as weaker earnings from its air-conditioning and insulation segments outweighed better results in steel and construction. Lower contributions from associates and joint ventures added to the drag on net income.

Sales dropped across three of Senaat’s four segments, with air conditioning the only business posting higher sales. Net income for 9M fell 55.2% to SAR 49.8 mn, with revenue down 7.8% to SAR 4.2 bn, as lower construction sales outweighed growth in its other three segments. Weaker air-conditioning and construction earnings, smaller contributions from associates and joint ventures, and higher zakat and income tax weighed on the bottom line.

Inventory troubles continue: Senaat’s auditor issued a qualified conclusion on the 9M results after stock records at three air-conditioning subsidiaries failed to match the company’s accounts. Inventory adjustments, including shortages from an April stock count, reached SAR 126 mn as of September, with earlier figures restated, and the auditor could not say whether more corrections will be needed while the investigation continues.

MESC’s copper squeeze

Middle East Specialized Cables (MESC) saw its net income slip 4.4% y-o-y to SAR 19.4 mn in 3Q 2026 even as revenue jumped 55.6% to SAR 592.2 mn, according to a Tadawul filing. Higher sales volumes in the Kingdom and the UAE and rising copper prices drove the revenue gain, lifting operating income 13.5% to SAR 33.1 mn. However, gross margin narrowed to 11.3% from 14.8% as higher input costs hit orders priced before supply-chain disruptions. Over 9M, net income rose 21.4% to SAR 84.2 mn on revenue up 41.8% to SAR 1.56 bn, as sales volumes rose across all cable types and copper prices lifted the price per ton. Gross margin for the period narrowed to 14.1% from 15.1%, mostly because of the weaker 3Q.

Higher costs ate into the gains: Selling and marketing expenses climbed 64.7% y-o-y as larger sales volumes raised shipping costs and customer and sales incentives. Financing costs also rose 68% on higher copper purchase volumes and raw material prices. MESC renewed and expanded an SAR 150 mn financing facility with Alinma Bank earlier this year to support working capital and bank guarantees.

Sinad’s paper losses eclipse sales gains

Sinad Holding’s sales are growing this quarter, but its investment portfolio is dragging on its nine-month results. The company swung to a marginal net income of SAR 0.3 mn in 3Q from an SAR 0.3 mn loss a year earlier, on revenue up 11% y-o-y at SAR 499.2 mn, according to a Tadawul filing. Stronger sales across some of its distribution channels lifted gross income 14.2% to SAR 148.5 mn, outpacing revenue, but most of that gain didn’t carry through to operating income, which rose just 5.5% to SAR 30.5 mn. Lower finance costs and income tax helped tip the bottom line into the black.

Investment valuations weighed on 9M results. Gross income rose 13.4% to SAR 412 mn on revenue up 9.8% to SAR 1.39 bn, yet Sinad’s net loss widened nearly 3x to SAR 17.2 mn from SAR 6.1 mn a year earlier. The company attributed the decline mainly to higher unrealized losses on the fair value of its financial investments and equity instruments, which pushed operating income down 3.5% to SAR 69.9 mn. Higher administrative, selling, and distribution expenses, lower other operating income, FX losses, and zakat added to the pressure.

Tags:

Advanced Building Industries (Senaat) EARNINGS WATCH Middle East Specialized Cables (MESC) Saudi Energy Sinad Holding

6

SAUDI IN THE NEWS

War-driven liquidity crunch weighs on Saudi growth plans

The spillover effects from the Kingdom’s tightening bank liquidity on Vision 2030 got ink in Bloomberg last week. The outlet casts Saudi as caught in a war-driven liquidity squeeze that is sapping the non-oil economy and crowding Vision 2030 plans.

By the numbers: The Saibor-SOFR spread has widened to about 120 basis points, from a normal level nearer 70, as UAE banks and government entities pull deposits; credit grew 2.4% in 3Q while deposits fell 1.8%; and both S&P (-1.3%) and the government itself (-3.6%) now expect the economy to contract this year.

The worry is the spillover. Costlier funding, project-driven credit demand, and regional geopolitical uncertainty are a headwind for the non-oil economy, ADCB’s Monica Malik said. That sustained pressure could slow the project spending that drives the diversification push. Goldman’s Farouk Soussa expects the squeeze to be short-lived, noting SAMA has tools to ease it, as it did in 2022 by placing bns of USD with cash-strapped banks.

Tags:

BANKING ECONOMY SAUDI IN THE NEWS Vision 2030

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ALSO ON OUR RADAR

The Helicopter Company orders 12 jets, Saudi tenders 3.2 GW renewables, MSCI drops two Saudi stocks

THC adds business jets

PIF’s helicopter operator is moving into business jets. The Helicopter Company has placed a firm order for 12 Bombardier aircraft worth about USD 568 mn — five Challenger 3500s, five Global 5500s, and two flagship Global 8000s — with options for 48 more, the two companies said in a joint statement. The order firms up a July letter of intent and launches THC’s business-aviation arm. As part of the agreement, Bombardier committed to setting up a local footprint in the Kingdom.

Saudi tenders 3.2 GW more renewables

Saudi Power Procurement Company has opened the qualification round for the eighth batch of projects under the National Renewable Energy Program, it said in a statement. The projects include two solar plants — 900 MW at Tumair in Riyadh province and 1 GW at East Al Amoah in Aseer — and the 1.3 GW Al Mozeraah wind farm in Makkah province. The batch totals 3.2 GW, keeping the program moving toward its target of renewables contributing 50% of the power mix by 2030.

MSCI cuts two Saudi stocks

MSCI is dropping two Saudi names from its index. The index provider will remove Ades Holding and Makkah Construction and Development from its MSCI Saudi Arabia standard index, adding no new constituents in its November review of global equity indices, it said in a statement (pdf). The change takes effect after the close of trading on 30 November. MSCI gave no reasons, but its reviews are based on size, freefloat, and liquidity.

Digging deeper: The two stocks face selling as index-tracking funds rebalance out of them. AlJazira Capital (pdf) estimated passive outflows of USD 100-200 mn for each ahead of the review and flagged both stocks as exclusion candidates after their freefloat-adjusted market caps slipped below the index threshold, with Ades trading around 15% off its 52-week high.

A Saudi game studio raises funding

Homegrown game studio Lambda Studios raised USD 1.3 mn in a funding round led by Merak Capital, according to a statement. Founded nearly a decade ago in Makkah by Sari and Firas AlSaedi building games on Roblox, the studio is now moving onto new platforms, including Steam.

Adding to the gaming roster: Merak Capital also participated in a USD 1.45 mn funding round for Majestic Mind Games alongside Impact46 in August.

Humain moves into AI training

Humain is building an AI school in Riyadh. The company has unveiled Humain+, an applied-AI education arm opening at Majdoul Tower in 1Q 2027, it said in a statement. It will run four tracks: for executives, non-technical professionals, developers, and students. It will also run sector-specific labs covering government, finance, healthcare, and energy. Learners will train on Humain’s own models and infrastructure, with a tutor powered by its Allam model. The campus is designed for about 1.5k learners a year and will house GPU-equipped “Builder Labs.”

ALSO- Humain has partnered with immersive video technology company Vuz to build interactive AI learning into Humain+.

Saudi grant backs Bahrain bridge

Bahrain has signed the fourth-phase contracts for the Busaiteen Bridge, funded in full by a Saudi grant of more than SAR 937 mn, state news agency SPA reports. The Saudi Fund for Development is financing the bridge, which will link Muharraq Island to Manama. It adds to a nearly five-decade run of Saudi development finance in Bahrain spanning 34 projects worth more than SAR 10.9 bn in grants and soft loans.

Tags:

Ades Holding ALSO ON OUR RADAR Humain Lambda Studios Makkah Construction and Development Merak Capital Thc

8

PLANET FINANCE

Anthropic’s IPO draws heavy demand — and could still fetch USD 1.5 tn valuation

Anthropic’s tn-USD moment is almost here. The Claude maker’s shares are expected to start trading on Nasdaq on or around 19 November at a price that would value the whole company at up to USD 1.4 tn — a bit less than some investors had hoped, Reuters reports. It’s only selling a small slice of itself, but that could still bring in as much as USD 64.4 bn, CNBC says. Google, Nvidia, Microsoft, and other tech giants are buying an extra USD 26 bn of its shares.

Investors have put in orders for six times more stock than is for sale, Bloomberg reports, and bankers are now mulling whether to price the shares above the range, which could value Anthropic at USD 1.5 tn or more, the Financial Times adds. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley are expected to price the offering on 18 November.

The timing is tricky: Investors will be watching how Anthropic’s shares sell to judge whether Wall Street is still bullish on AI. They’re a little jumpy right now. AI stocks have only partly bounced back from last week’s post-midterm selloff, as we noted on Tuesday.

SPEAKING OF WHICH- That selloff is already hitting Gulf wallets. Abu Dhabi’s Mubadala may be down about USD 17.5 bn on its AI wagers since the end of June, while Saudi Arabia’s PIF is down about USD 5.64 bn, according to estimates by consultancy GlobalSWF first reported by Semafor.

Investors aren’t about to pull out of AI completely. If anything, lower prices could let long-term investors like these pick up more of some AI stocks. We’ve long argued that any air being let out of the AI bubble might be seen by Gulf sovereign funds as a chance to up their stakes in companies they see building a transformative technology.

Why this matters for the Gulf: Abu Dhabi’s state fund MGX and the Qatar Investment Authority (QIA) already own pieces of Anthropic, so the company’s performance next week will affect Gulf public money. UAE investors are also leading OpenAI’s next funding round, which is why investors are watching Anthropic’s IPO for clues about how OpenAI might fare.

OpenAI’s numbers are a mixed bag. In 3Q 2026, it made USD 10 bn in sales in a single quarter for the first time ever, nearly 50% more than the quarter before, Bloomberg reports. But it also lost USD 10.9 bn over the same three months, The Wall Street Journal reports.

Take that with a grain of salt: OpenAI and Anthropic don’t use the same rules about how to count revenue. Anthropic includes the full value of the sales it makes through Amazon, Google, and Microsoft’s clouds, then books its partners’ cuts as an expense. OpenAI’s top line includes only what it keeps after Microsoft gets its cut.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

TASI	10,326	+0.2% (YTD: -1.6%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,400	+0.2% (YTD: +1.0%)
NomuC	22,054	+0.5% (YTD: -5.3%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	4.25% repo	3.75% reverse repo
EGX30	52,023	-0.9% (YTD: +24.4%)
ADX	9,667	-0.6% (YTD: -3.3%)
DFM	6,198	-0.6% (YTD: +2.5%)
S&P 500	7,562	-0.4% (YTD: +10.5%)
FTSE 100	10,903	+0.4% (YTD: +9.8%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,387	-0.2% (YTD: +10.2%)
Brent crude	USD 95.84	0.0%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.23	-3.3%
Gold	USD 3,886	0.0%
BTC	USD 63,677	-6.8% (YTD: -27.4%)
Sukuk/bond market index	890.39	-0.1% (YTD: -3.1%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	148.34	-0.4% (YTD: -2.3%)
VIX (Fear gauge)	19.30	+3.2% (YTD:+29.1%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI rose 0.2% on Thursday on turnover of SAR 4.1 bn. The index is down 1.6% YTD.

In the green: Saudi Industrial Development (+7.6%), Al-Omran Industrial Trading (+6.9%), and Saudi Azm for Communication and Information Technology (+5.9%).

In the red: Raoom Trading (-8.4%), Saudi Fisheries (-6.9%), and Kingdom Holding (-6.4%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC rose 0.5% on Thursday on turnover of SAR 21.9 mn. The index is down 5.3% YTD.

In the green: Munawla Cargo (+13.2%), Sama Healthy Water Factory (+12.4%), and Dkhoun National Trading (+9.9%).

In the red: Twareat Medical Care (-10.0%), Sahat Almajd Trading (-6.8%), and View United Real Estate Development (-6.4%).

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

#1- United Cooperative Assurance will miss the deadline to publish its 9M results, as a 29 September court ruling to open liquidation proceedings — which the company is appealing — could change how its accounts are prepared, the company said in a Tadawul filing. Talks with its auditors on review requirements are also unfinished. The company expects to publish the results by 31 January 2027, depending on the outcome of the appeal and completion of the review. Its shares have been suspended since 13 September.

#2- Tihama Advertising will also miss the regulatory deadline for its preliminary financial results for the six months ended 30 September, as the review remains incomplete following delays in appointing an external auditor and a subsequent change in auditor, the company said in a Tadawul filing. Tihama’s shares were suspended on 12 November, and the company aims to publish the results within 20 trading sessions of the suspension.

#3- United Carton Industries’ board approved SAR 70 mn in interim dividends for 9M 2026, or SAR 1.75 per share, equivalent to 17.5% of nominal value, according to a Tadawul disclosure. Shareholders registered at the close of trading on 19 November are eligible, with payment due on 2 December.

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AI Anthropic Financial markets IPO PLANET FINANCE

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DECEMBER

14-16 December (Monday-Wednesday): The Innovation Driven Water Sustainability Conference (IDWS), Jeddah.

2027

JANUARY

6 January (Wednesday): The Transport General Authority’s executive regulations for self-driving passenger transport takes effect.

12-14 January (Tuesday-Thursday): The Future Minerals Forum (FMF), Riyadh.

FEBRUARY

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): Energy Regulators Regional Association annual conference, Riyadh.

1-4 February (Monday-Thursday): Cityscape Global, Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre (Malham), Riyadh.

MARCH

21-25 March (Sunday-Thursday): The World Water Forum, Riyadh.

22–24 March (Monday-Wednesday): Capital Markets Forum, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh

APRIL

13-14 April (Tuesday-Wednesday): Future Hospitality Summit Saudi Arabia 2027, DoubleTree, by Hilton, Madinah Gate, Madinah.

16-17 April (Friday-Saturday): Formula E double-header, Jeddah.

26-29 April (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

JUNE

1-3 June (Tuesday-Thursday): Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

JULY

1-5 July (Thursday-Monday): Grand Finale of The Ocean Race, Amaala.

OCTOBER

25-27 October (Monday-Wednesday): The Future Investment Initiative, Riyadh.

NOVEMBER

16-18 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Global Logistics Forum, Riyadh.

29-30 November (Monday-Tuesday): Global Airports Forum, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

DECEMBER

7-11 December (Tuesday-Saturday): Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun, Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed;
April: Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh;
2Q: The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed;
November: Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh;
November: UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum, Riyadh.

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