THIS MORNING: Aramco’s export route repairs are 80% complete

Good morning, friends. We’re starting the week with signs that the war may shift into higher gear, with Saudi Arabia making plans to retake its Red Sea shipping route by force.

The operation is possibly weeks away, and could involve Yemeni forces on the ground and Saudi jets overhead. We walk through the options, who’s lending support and how, and the Iran-backed off-ramp the Makkah pact members will weigh in Riyadh this week.

In the banking world, the picture is steadier. Saudi bank lending kept growing in August, led by an 18.4% jump in public-sector credit, even as foreign assets slipped and the money supply softened.

AND- For the longer view, we sat down with Tech Mahindra’s regional head to discuss where Saudi AI spending is actually paying off and why data readiness, talent, and governance are the emerging bottlenecks.

Delighted to welcome Mirna Arif as a guest speaker at the 2026 EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum.

Mirna Arif is an accomplished business leader with over two decades of cross-sector experience across Europe, the Middle East, and Africa. She currently serves as General Manager for Microsoft's Middle East and Africa Growth Markets, overseeing operations across Egypt and other emerging markets, with a focus on digital transformation and inclusive economic growth.

In January 2026, Mirna was appointed by H.E. President Abdel Fattah El-Sisi as a Member of the Egyptian Parliament (House of Representatives), a testament to her dedication to public service and her commitment to shaping Egypt's future through policy, technology, and inclusive development.

She was previously General Manager of Microsoft Egypt, the first woman to hold the role, and has held senior leadership positions at Microsoft Dubai, GE Oil & Gas, and Schlumberger. She was named among Forbes Middle East's 100 Most Powerful Businesswomen in both 2024 and 2025, and serves on the boards of Banque Misr and the Egyptian National Council for Women.

Registration is now closed. Thank you to everyone who registered. We look forward to welcoming you on Monday, 5 October.

Happening today

Opec+ decides its November output today and is expected to hold targets flat for a second straight month.

Almost to full tilt

Aramco is running its main cross-country oil pipeline above 80% capacity. Flows through the East-West pipeline are close to 6 mn bbl / d of the 7 mn bbl / d it can carry, Bloomberg reports, citing a source familiar with the matter. Once refineries on the west coast take their cut, that leaves 4.5 mn bbl / d to export from the Red Sea.

It’s a sharp turn within a week. The East-West line was running at roughly half capacity days ago, the source said, while Aramco was aiming for 4 mn bbl / d when the pipeline restarted on 22 September, with a full return penciled in at six to eight weeks. Attacks knocked out three of its 11 pumping stations on 11 September, prompting the producer to shut it down completely as a precaution.

REMEMBER- The Kingdom is working both routes at once. Yanbu loadings are back, and Saudi Arabia leaned hard on Hormuz while the pipeline was down, shuttling crude out by supertanker and ship-to-ship transfer off Oman. JPMorgan and Goldman Sachs reckon that combination has Middle East exports climbing back toward pre-war levels, and the extra barrels helped drag Brent below USD 100 last week.

ALSO- Aramco is charging more for cooking gas this month. The oil giant raised its October official selling prices for liquefied petroleum gas (LPG) by 9-11% on the back of higher oil prices and increased demand, Reuters reports, citing traders. Propane is now USD 680 per ton (+USD 55), while butane costs USD 730 per ton (+USD 70). Aramco’s monthly LPG prices are widely used as a benchmark for Middle East LPG exports to the Asia-Pacific market.

Duqm calling

One of Aramco’s mystery export routes may have a destination: Duqm. Days after Aramco CEO Amin Nasser said the company is studying a fourth and fifth way out of the Gulf without saying where they’d run, TotalEnergies CEO Patrick Pouyanne says the Kingdom has “begun to work” on a crude pipeline to Duqm on Oman’s Indian Ocean coast, AGBI reports.

The appeal is geography: A line to Oman’s coast would put Saudi crude straight onto the Indian Ocean, closer to Asian buyers and clear of both Hormuz and the Red Sea. The route would run roughly 1k km and cost up to USD 7 bn, still at feasibility stage, vice president of upstream research at Rystad Energy Rahul Choudhary told the news outlet. One candidate endpoint is Ras Markaz, about 650-700 km from Iran.

Five ticks of wiggle room

Tadawul’s new market order rules take effect today. Market orders on the main market and on the parallel market Nomu can now execute across multiple price levels, up to five ticks from the best price, rather than only at the best price, according to a Tadawul announcement. Derivatives are excluded.

How it works: A market order used to fill at a single price, with any remainder converted into a limit order. Under the new mechanism (pdf), the order can continue executing at subsequent price levels within a five-tick range. Once that boundary is reached, or if liquidity runs out before then, any remaining quantity becomes a limit order at the last executed price. Market orders retain their highest execution priority.

What it means for investors: More of an order could be filled immediately by tapping liquidity at several price levels, rather than waiting for additional buyers or sellers at the best price. The trade-off is that investors may buy at higher prices or sell at lower ones within the permitted range. A tick refers to the minimum price increment of a stock, not a 5% price band, and full execution of the order is still not ensured.

REMEMBER- Trading value on Tadawul fell 10.4% y-o-y to SAR 616.6 bn in 1H 2026, while the number of trades declined 11.8%. The new mechanism gives market orders greater access to existing liquidity, although it does not itself add liquidity to the market.

Paramount takeover gets a timeline + financing plan

Paramount has locked in the debt for its PIF-backed takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery, and the acquisition finally has a closing date: 6 October. The company priced roughly USD 52 bn in bonds and loans last week, according to a statement. That came hours after a federal judge approved its settlement with 12 US states and lifted the order that had blocked the merger since July. Only customary closing conditions remain.

Investors piled in: The USD 30 bn investment-grade portion drew more than USD 109 bn in orders, 3.6x its planned size, Bloomberg reports. It is split across eight tranches maturing between 2028 and 2066, with coupons ranging from 6.30% to 8.90%. The demand let Paramount trim the bond from USD 32 bn, shift USD 2 bn into its term loan, and tighten pricing. The 2066 tranche landed at 3.3 percentage points over Treasuries, about 35 bps inside initial talk. The package also includes USD 11.4 bn and EUR 885 mn in high-yield second-lien notes, plus a USD 8.5 bn and EUR 850 mn term loan.

The Gulf's piece: PIF, L'imad, and QIA are putting up c. USD 24 bn in equity alongside the debt, as we reported. After closing, PIF will hold 15.1% of Paramount's non-voting equity, followed by L'imad’s 12.8%, according to the company's FCC filing.

The delay has been costly: Paramount had been facing USD 7 mn in daily delay payments starting 30 September. The issuances were initially set to be sold in the middle of the year but were delayed by the two litigation settlements.

ADVISORS- The offering was led by Citigroup, Apollo Global Management, and Bank of America Corp.

Watani levels up

Watani Iron Steel will list its shares on Tadawul’s main market on Tuesday, 6 October, having gained approval to transfer its shares from Nomu, according to a statement from the exchange. The company — which specializes in billet and rebar manufacturing alongside scrap cutting — will trade under the symbol 1325 in the materials sector, with a daily price fluctuation limit of 10%.

A bumpy ride to graduation: The Saudi Exchange denied the company’s transfer request in 2024, citing the firm’s failure to meet the necessary listing requirements. The company’s board of directors gave the go ahead for the transfer in 2023, and Watani Iron Steel submitted its request in May 2024.

Grand Mosque isn’t in danger

Saudi authorities are denying reports of a suicide bomber at Makkah’s Grand Mosque. Public security said that a man was arrested for harassing passersby and causing panic, but that there was no bombing attempt.

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The Gulf’s sovereign funds and largest companies are committing billions to AI infrastructure at home and to AI companies in the US and beyond. EnterpriseAM AI + Innovation reports on where that capital goes, who controls it and what it is actually buying. Every Tuesday and Thursday, we also cover the startups and established firms across MENA putting AI to work, and how it is changing jobs, education and the way business runs. It’s sharp, analytical and skeptical journalism that ignores hype and is laser-focused on informing our readers, not pleasing our sources. The newsletter launches Monday, 5 October, at the EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum's AI edition. Sign up here to be among the first to get it straight to your inbox.

The big story abroad

The White House has created a task force to assess the risks and prospects of AI technology and recommend what role the ​federal government should ​play in overseeing it. Known as the Super Intelligence Force, the new entity will be led by Director of National Intelligence Jay Clayton, possibly signaling the Trump administration’s intent to heighten AI oversight.

G7 countries agreed to release 100 mn barrels of crude and diesel from their strategic stockpiles in exchange for Washington withdrawing its threat to halt US fuel exports. The agreement follows pressure on US President Donald Trump from farm-state Republicans to ban fuel exports and relieve struggling farmers ahead of next month’s elections. The bloc will release the reserves over a four-month period. The full details of the plan have not been disclosed.

High bond yields? Bessent says relax: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent stated that the recent rise in US Treasury yields reflects broader global trends and should not be a cause for concern. Bessent argued that the economic fallout from the conflict in Iran is obscuring solid US fundamentals, citing robust consumer spending and median wage increases that are keeping pace with inflation.