Holding the line

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Schools in Riyadh move online for a week

Good morning, wonderful people. We’re getting underway with a slightly slower pace than the post-long-weekend rush, and, for once, the regional escalation isn’t in the spotlight.

The forecasters are likely right on inflation. Containment is a set of policy choices, and policy choices come back around when the deficit does — defense is not getting cheaper, and subsidy settings are the easiest line in a budget to revisit. A 2027 call on Saudi prices is a call on fiscal patience.

Worth a read and a think this morning: The latest PISA findings size up Saudi students’ academic abilities against OECD averages. The report points to much of what keeps parents and teachers awake at night — 15-year-olds are struggling to reproduce what they were taught and stall the moment a problem doesn’t look like the one they practiced. We also get into students’ use of AI for their homework and their declining Arabic language skills.

We’re happy to welcome Ahmed Mohsen as a guest speaker at the 2026 EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum — the AI edition.

Ahmed Mohsen is the co-founder and CTO of MNT-Halan, one of the fastest-growing fintech platforms in the Middle East and Africa, serving over 8 mn customers across Egypt, Pakistan, Turkey, and the UAE. He leads the company’s technology strategy and architected Neuron, MNT-Halan’s proprietary core banking system, overseeing a team of more than 90 engineers building the company’s digital infrastructure. A serial entrepreneur with deep roots in cybersecurity, Mohsen also co-founded SecureMisr, one of Egypt’s pioneering cybersecurity firms, acquired by Cysiv in 2020.

Join us on 5 October in Cairo. Attendance is by invitation only, and we’ve reached full capacity.

Request your invitation here to join the waitlist.

Class dismissed

Schools in Riyadh move online for a week: Saudi authorities have shifted the capital’s schools to remote learning for a week, notifying parents by email on Sunday without giving a reason, Arab News reported, citing AFP. The move follows Houthi claims of a strike on a “sensitive site” in Riyadh, while the Saudi-led coalition said it had intercepted drones and ballistic missiles fired toward the Kingdom.

Under pressure

US advisory boutiques including Moelis, Rothschild, PJT Partners, and Evercore are struggling to meet regional headquarters requirements, with several yet to secure RHQ licenses despite maintaining offices in Riyadh, the Financial Times reports. One bank is putting its application on hold, and another is weighing whether to abandon its plans altogether. A senior banker tells the salmon-colored paper some requirements for the RHQ program — which was introduced in 2024 — are “not realistic.”

The sticking points: The program requires companies to employ at least 15 full-time staff at their Saudi regional headquarters within a year of receiving a license, including senior executives in managerial roles — a heavy fixed cost for advisory firms that run lean by design. Several boutiques are now seeking clarifications or exemptions from the Investment Ministry.

They’re not packing up their bags entirely: The Kingdom remains an important market and the firms intend to keep investing in their local operations, bankers tell the FT. “We want to continue investing in our Saudi office, just not under the RHQ program,” one banking executive says.

Why the ministry may not bend: More than 700 companies have registered under the program, exceeding the government’s 2030 target of 500. As of July, 19 financial institutions had obtained RHQ licenses, with another 30 in the pipeline.

The timing doesn’t help, either: Saudi capital markets and M&A activity weakened in 1H 2026, and bankers said the regional war has prompted the government and PIF to reassess spending priorities and turn more inward, the FT notes. Less dealflow means less reason to carry the cost of compliance.

Reining in leverage

Saudi brokerage clients will soon have to fund at least half of any margin trade in a foreign security from 1 November, and won’t be able to use margin on some of them at all. Draft rules from the Capital Market Authority — which are now out for consultation until 27 October — would set a minimum 50% client contribution on margin transactions in overseas securities and require institutions to monitor the margin periodically, according to an announcement.

Also in the draft: Suitability requirements would extend to transactions in foreign markets, with institutions assessing clients before dealing with them and repeating this process only after changes in a client’s circumstances. For overseas securities margin transactions, clients must provide at least 50% of the transaction value, with institutions required to monitor the margin periodically. Such transactions would also be prohibited for highly leveraged instruments and firms with accumulated losses exceeding 50% of capital.

Banking on the gas

Aramco has hired a banker for its gas carve-out, moving the plan toward an actual transaction. The oil giant has hired Evercore to advise on the restructuring — internally called Project Gamma — that would separate its gas operations into a standalone division, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter. Boston Consulting Group is also advising on the restructuring, recommending the split as a way to unlock value.

Why it matters: At north of USD 100 bn, the gas unit would be worth roughly three times as much as Sabic, Aramco’s listed chemicals arm, and would be the biggest single lever in a program to monetize up to USD 35 bn of assets to fund state projects and dividend payouts. Sabic is also the cautionary reference point — its shares are down more than 20% over the past year, and that is the appetite any minority listing would be sold into.

REMEMBER- Aramco has run this structure before. Last year, a BlackRock GIP-led consortium invested USD 11 bn in Aramco’s gas-processing infrastructure at Jafurah through a lease-and-leaseback. The assets were housed in Jafurah Midstream Gas Company, with Aramco retaining a 51% stake and the consortium taking 49%, before being leased back to Aramco for 20 years.

Data point

12.8 mn bbl / d — that’s how much crude oil key Middle East producers exported in September, largely the result of increased shipments from countries such as Saudi Arabia and the UAE, Reuters reports, citing data by Kpler. This marks the highest output since the start of the Iran conflict, and is roughly 6 mn bbl / d below February’s 18.8 mn bbl / d.

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The Egyptian government locked in enough LNG and crude to carry the country through peak demand this summer, and the real question now is who pays for it and for the rebuild ahead.

PowerTrip, our new four-part signature series, follows the money behind an energy sector that went from exporting gas to importing it in just five years.

Over the four issues this autumn, we'll look at how the lights stayed on and what that cost, who will own the next generation of power, how fast renewables can really scale, and whether Egypt's claim to be the region's energy hub still holds.

Issue I lands Wednesday, 30 September, and looks at how Egypt avoided rationing this summer, how the country went from gas exporter to importer in a decade, and what keeping the lights on actually cost us.

Tap here to subscribe to the Egypt edition and get PowerTrip delivered straight to your inbox.

The big story abroad

A security development has cropped up on an unexpected front. UK authorities arrested five men suspected of planning a “major incident” near RAF Fairford, a Gloucestershire base used by the US Air Force in its strikes against Iran. US President Donald Trump said Washington collaborated with the UK to avert this attack on the base, which Iran’s Revolutionary Guard declared a legitimate target last July.

AI in the hot seat: Australian senators have called the CEOs of OpenAI and Anthropic to answer questions at an upcoming AI inquiry, triggered by the recent hack of the country’s health database by an autonomous OpenAI agent. Meanwhile, OpenAI admitted its AI models accessed public data from US government websites such as those of the Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) and Census Bureau.

Safety is one thing — cost, another: Surging IT costs are driving US corporates toward “open” AI models they can customize and run in-house, instead of paying for premium versions of ChatGPT and Claude. Executives mentioned “open weight” or “open source” AI models six times as often in earnings calls and investor conferences in August and September compared with the same period last year, according to research platform AlphaSense.

Circle your calendar

Riyadh Season 2026 will begin on 21 October and run for 10 weeks, GEA Chairman Turki Al AlSheikh announced. Some events are planned for the seventh edition — running under the theme Big Time — including boxing, wrestling bouts, UFC competitions, and the Six Kings Slam tennis tournament. Boulevard World will also return, while Wonder Garden will offer rides and other activities.

Forecasters still see Saudi inflation contained through 2027 despite regional escalation

The forecasters who model Saudi inflation expect the regional escalation to leave it largely intact. Oxford Economics and S&P Global Market Intelligence both see price growth contained through 2027 — Oxford at 2% for 2026 and 1.8% for 2027, S&P expecting inflation “broadly contained through 2027” — on the strength of the same buffers we flagged when August’s 1.8% reading landed: administered fuel and electricity prices, the SAR’s peg to the USD, and competition fierce enough to keep firms from passing on higher input costs.

The headline stays low because policy caps the two channels that usually do the damage. “Headline inflation has remained low because administered fuel and utility prices limit pass-through from oil-market volatility, while softer goods inflation offsets housing pressures,” Ralf Wiegert, head of MENA economics at S&P Global Market Intelligence, tells EnterpriseAM. The SAR’s peg to the USD does the rest, capping imported inflation, Oxford Economics lead economist Akanksha Samdani tells us — which is why food inflation ran at just 1.4% in August and the August PMI showed elevated input costs but competition holding pass-through in check.

Housing is still the one domestic pressure that won’t quit, and its 0.8-percentage-point contribution to the headline understates the squeeze on renters. Housing and utilities inflation ran at 3.9% in August — down from 4.2% in July, but more than twice the headline rate. “CPI reflects average cost-of-living changes, but housing costs are rising faster than overall inflation,” Wiegert says. Renters in the major cities feel it most, Samdani adds, and the lever to watch is Riyadh’s rent freeze, which Oxford Economics expects to slow rental inflation over the coming quarters.

Two channels the August data didn’t capture could still add pressure. The first is financing costs: senior analyst and economist Mohamed Hasanain points to recent Fed and Saudi rate increases, which lift borrowing costs for households and for businesses funding inventory and development. The second is delayed pass-through from the shipping and ins. costs that have spiked since the escalation. Wiegert expects some of it to reach imported goods, though he predicts businesses will absorb part of the hit, with solid demand heading off a broad acceleration. The gap between wholesale and consumer prices suggests they already are: wholesale inflation hit 4.6% in August against 1.8% at the consumer level, Samdani notes.

Looking ahead: Oxford Economics expects inflation to edge up slightly over the coming months, though not sharply. Further out, the call rests on a short list of variables — rents, how quickly shipping routes normalize, whether administered energy prices hold, and how long the disruption runs. Oxford’s 1.8% call for 2027 assumes rents stay the main driver and a growth rebound keeps them rising, tempered by the Riyadh freeze; Samdani's upside risks are continued rent increases, higher freight and imported-input costs, and prolonged disruption to regional trade routes.

Saudi 15-year-olds struggle to apply what they learn, OECD report shows

Almost no Saudi 15-year-old can take what they learn in class and apply it to an unfamiliar, open-ended problem, according to the OECD’s latest global assessment of school students. The university lecturers who eventually teach these students say that’s the gap they run into most frequently.

Saudi students scored below the OECD average in every subject of the Program for International Student Assessment (PISA) 2025 (pdf), and their results have barely moved since the last assessment in 2022. In each subject, almost none reached Level 5 or 6, the band that tests whether students can apply knowledge to problems they haven’t seen before. The OECD average for those levels is 6-8%.

“The biggest gap I see is between academic attainment and the ability to translate knowledge into practice,” King Saud University assistant professor of media and assistant vice dean for academic affairs at its College of Arts Nouf Alhamdan tells EnterpriseAM. Students can explain a concept in an exam, she says, but struggle when it comes to applying it to a real situation where there isn’t a single correct answer demands other skills such as decision-making, working with ambiguity, collaboration, and seeing a project through.

How the scores looked: Some 7.3k students across 203 schools sat for the test. They averaged 390 in math, 387 in reading, 413 in science, and 426 in computational problem solving. In math, just 32% cleared the baseline proficiency level against an OECD average of 65%.

The trend line is close to flat. Compared with 2022, math and reading were flat and only science rose. The gap between the top and bottom 10% of students widened in math and science, and held steady in reading. Stretch the view back to 2018, when Saudi first participated in the program, and the picture improves: math and science improved significantly, while reading slipped. The share of students below baseline fell 13 percentage points in science and rose seven in reading.

Alhamdan also sees weakness in some students’ Arabic. Many struggle to build an argument in Modern Standard Arabic and drift into colloquial usage where formal language is expected. “The ability to articulate an idea precisely is closely connected to the ability to think through that idea.”

AI is now part of how most students work. Some 54% of Saudi students use chatbots for schoolwork at least weekly, above the OECD’s 46%, and only 8% never do. Alhamdan calls the tools useful for brainstorming, research, and translation. Her concern is twofold: “when AI begins to replace the student’s own thinking,” and that copied-in answers make it “considerably more difficult to assess what a student genuinely understands.” She now asks students to explain and defend their work in person, and says the sector “urgently” needs clear rules on acceptable use.

On motivation, the survey cuts both ways. Saudi 15-year-olds report more grit than their OECD peers — 68% say they push harder when work gets difficult, against an average of 60% — though fewer describe themselves as curious about many things, at 65% versus 73%.

Alhamdan sees the same split in her own classroom. The encouraging shift, she says, is a rise in self-directed learners who teach themselves editing software and AI tools through online resources, experimentation, and peer learning — though digital proficiency varies widely and the habit is far from universal. Against that, she describes a decline, since she began teaching in 2014, in “sustained attention and depth of engagement,” with more students “looking for shortcuts.”

The bright spot? The Kingdom does better than most on equity. Its most and least advantaged students are 47 points apart in science, sitting well inside the OECD gap of 85 points.

Attendance is less bright: Two-thirds of students had missed at least a full day of school in the two weeks before the test, three times the OECD’s 22% and up from 61% in 2022.

Al Dawood is back as Alujain’s CEO

Al Lujain’s CEO is back, two weeks after retiring. The company has re-appointed Khalid bin Mohammed Al Dawood (LinkedIn) as CEO, starting tomorrow, after he stepped down earlier this month for a statutory break for reaching retirement age, according to a Tadawul disclosure. The board accepted that resignation with an agreement he would return within 15 days, and Mohammed Al Mutairi, the VP of administrative affairs, covered as acting CEO in the gap before handing the role back.

King Abdulaziz Int’l Airport Terminal Four is now operational

Jeddah Airports began the phased operation of Terminal Four at King Abdulaziz International Airport yesterday, according to a statement. The terminal — which provides capacity of up to 15 mn passengers a year — covers all foreign airlines operating from the North Terminal, some foreign airlines operating from Terminal One, and the Hajj and Umrah Terminal Complex.

Three international airlines — Wizz Air, Air Cairo, and SalamAir — have already moved their flights to the terminal, Jeddah Airports Company said. Fly Jinnah flights and Nesma Airlines will move today, Akasa Air flights tomorrow, SyrianAir and Pegasus on Thursday, and Azerbaijan Airlines and Tunisair on Saturday.

Why it matters: Terminal Four will ease pressure on King Abdulaziz International Airport as passenger and pilgrim traffic grows. The airport handled a record 53.4 mn passengers in 2025 and is facing rising demand from tourism and Umrah visitors. This increased capacity will redistribute traffic, streamline pilgrim flows, and free up capacity at Terminal One and the Hajj and Umrah complex.

WSM to go public with its sukuk program

WSM for Information Technology is taking its SAR 500 mn sukuk program public. The IT firm plans to offer the program for public subscription and list it on Tadawul's sukuk and bonds market, open to retail and institutional investors, the company said in a prospectus (pdf). The sukuk will be issued in several series, with the timing of each set out in the relevant final terms. Each one will have a SAR 1k denomination.

REMEMBER- WSM first announced the local program in August 2025, and the Capital Market Authority approved the offering in April.

ADVISORS- Impact46 is acting as financial advisor and sole arranger.

Almutanabi launches AI trading app

Saudi startup Almutanabi has launched an AI-powered equity trading advisory application that provides stock-picking suggestions for a monthly fee, aiming to bring algorithm-driven investment decisions to retail investors, AGBI quotes Chief of AI Omar Alolayan as saying.

How it works: The app analyzes trading patterns, company cashflows, and incremental share price movements to generate predictions on future stock performance. It became available to paying customers on 30 August and currently has fewer than 100 users, all retail investors. The founders plan to expand to institutional investors as the platform scales.

Knauf advances UMI takeover

Knauf’s buyout of United Mining Industries is on track to close on 19 November. The Capital Market Authority cleared Knauf International to publish its tender offer and timetable for the remaining shares in UMI, according to a disclosure. The acceptance period opened yesterday and closes on 4 November, with results announced the following day and share allocation on 18 November, according to an announcement (pdf).

Knauf can’t sell out: Rules for foreign strategic investors lock the German firm into its UMI shares until 12 May 2028.

REMEMBER- Knauf launched the offer in June at SAR 57 per share, valuing the remaining stake at SAR 293.5 mn for over 5.1 mn shares. It bought 63.2% of UMI for SAR 504.5 mn from its shareholders Al Mojel Trading & Contracting, Al Muhaidib Group, and Rashed Developments in May, as step one of the full takeover.

Family offices pile into public equities as inflation overtakes tariffs as top concern

The world’s wealthiest families are leaning further into public markets — without abandoning private ones. Listed stocks emerged as the preferred destination for future allocations in Citi’s 2026 Global Family Office Report (pdf) as inflation replaced tariffs as family offices’ biggest financial concern. The survey drew responses from 351 family offices across more than 40 countries in June and July.

REMEMBER- The global picture looked rather different a year ago: Citi’s 2025 survey found private equity had the strongest allocation momentum, with 36% of family offices increasing their exposure and just 10% cutting it, as we reported at the time. Back then, trade disputes and tariffs were the biggest concern for respondents.

Inflation is changing the calculus: Nearly two-thirds of respondents in the 2026 survey named inflation as their top concern, followed by interest rates (44%) and the stability of the global financial system (38%). The Middle East conflict came in at 32%, while tariffs fell to 18%. But portfolios are holding up: some 89% of respondents reported positive returns so far this year, up from 84% in 2025, and 41% continue to target annual returns of 7-10%.

And investors are reaching for liquidity: Some 46% of respondents increased their public-equity exposure over the past year, against 12% who reduced it. That momentum looks set to continue: 37% plan to increase allocations to global developed equities over the next 12 months, compared with just 5% looking to cut. Family offices are also more likely to cut private credit than add to it, with the report pointing to default rates at a record 6%.

Gold is getting another look too: Nearly every client conversation now involves gold, Citi Wealth head Andy Sieg told Bloomberg. He said that wasn’t the case two years ago, and the bank is expanding its vault capacity to meet demand.

But private markets aren’t being shown the door: Around 26% of respondents plan to increase allocations to both direct private equity and private equity funds over the next year. Growth equity has the strongest pull within private equity, followed by VC, then secondaries, and finally buyouts.

Family offices in our region are among the most active private equity investors — but global family money isn’t flowing in: Respondents in Europe, the Middle East, and Africa led the increase in private equity allocations over the past year, with 43% raising their exposure against 30% in North America, and direct private equity tops their list of planned increases. Yet more than half of all respondents have no current or planned exposure to the Middle East, and just 3% plan to raise allocations to the region. Middle East-based family offices account for almost half of active private-capital investors in the region, according to BlackRock data we covered last week.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets were mixed in early trading, with Japan’s Nikkei rising around 0.2% and South Korea’s Kospi dipping 1.5%. MSCI’s broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares excluding Japan eased 0.2%. Wall Street was also mixed amid climbing oil prices and uncertainty around the regional war.

TASI	10,682	+0.8% (YTD: +1.8%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,438	+1.0% (YTD: +3.7%)
NomuC	21,549	+0.1% (YTD: -7.5%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	4.25% repo	3.75% reverse repo
EGX30	53,032	-1.4% (YTD: +26.8%)
ADX	10,201	-0.1% (YTD: -1.1%)
DFM	5,980	-0.1% (YTD: -2.1%)
S&P 500	7,743	+0.5% (YTD: +13.1%)
FTSE 100	10,695	+0.1% (YTD: +7.7%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,302	+0.5% (YTD: +8.7%)
Brent crude	USD 106.31	+1.9%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.05	-4.7%
Gold	USD 4,285	+0.2%
BTC	USD 84,370	-0.1% (YTD: -3.7%)
Sukuk/bond market index	893.82	-0.0% (YTD: -2.8%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	147.61	-0.3% (YTD: -2.8%)
VIX (Fear gauge)	14.87	-5.1% (YTD: -0.5%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI rose 0.8% yesterday on turnover of SAR 2.5 bn. The index is up 1.8% YTD.

In the green: Naseej International Trading (+5.9%), Ladun Investment (+5.4%), and Ash-Sharqiyah Development (+4.7%).

In the red: Tabuk Agricultural Development (-5.5%), Abdullah Saad Mohammed Abo Moati for Bookstores (-4.4%), and Nofoth Food Products (-4.2%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC rose 0.1% yesterday on turnover of SAR 16.8 mn. The index is down 7.5% YTD.

In the green: National Building and Marketing (+14.6%), Taqat Mineral Trading (+10.0%), and Twareat Medical Care (+9.9%).

In the red: Wajd Life Trading (-14.9%), Itmam Consultancy (-9.2%), and Dar Almarkabah for Renting Cars (-9.1%).

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Riyadh Development approved the distribution of SAR 58.5 mn in dividends for 1H 2026, equivalent to SAR 0.25 per share, according to a Tadawul disclosure. The distribution will take place on 22 October.

ALSO- Saudi Vitrified Clay Pipes shareholders will vote on a proposal for capital reduction to SAR 45.43 mn from SAR 150 mn at an extraordinary general meeting on October 22, according to another Tadawul filing. The meeting will be held in person and remotely via Tadawulaty platform.

CALENDAR

28 September-1 October (Monday-Thursday): The International Conference on Theory and Practice of Electronic Governance (ICEGOV), Prince Sultan University, Riyadh.

OCTOBER

21 October - 30 December (Wednesday-Wednesday): Riyadh Season, Riyadh.

25-26 October (Sunday-Monday): The Global Proptech Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): ACHEMA Middle East, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): The Future Investment Initiative, King Abdulaziz International Conference Center, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

30 October-1 November (Friday-Sunday): The New Global Sport Conference, Sofitel Hotel & Convention Centre, Riyadh.

NOVEMBER

11-12 November (Wednesday-Thursday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

16-19 November (Monday-Thursday): Cityscape Global, Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre (Malham), Riyadh.

29 November-1 December (Sunday-Tuesday): The UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum, Riyadh.

29 November-1 December (Sunday-Tuesday): The Global Logistics Forum, King Abdulaziz International Convention Centre, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2H: Sabic’s USD 6.4 bn Fujian project in China to start production;
November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh;
The World Economic Forum’s Global Collaboration and Growth Meeting, Jeddah;

2027

FEBRUARY

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): Energy Regulators Regional Association annual conference, Riyadh.

MARCH

21-25 March (Sunday-Thursday):The World Water Forum, Riyadh.

22–24 March (Monday-Wednesday): Capital Markets Forum, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh

APRIL

26-29 April (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

JUNE

1-3 June (Tuesday-Thursday): The Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed;
Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun takes place in Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

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Forecasters still see Saudi inflation contained through 2027 despite regional escalation

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Saudi 15-year-olds struggle to apply what they learn, OECD report shows

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Al Dawood is back as Alujain’s CEO

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King Abdulaziz Int’l Airport Terminal Four is now operational

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Family offices pile into public equities as inflation overtakes tariffs as top concern

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Forecasters still see Saudi inflation contained through 2027 despite regional escalation

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Saudi 15-year-olds struggle to apply what they learn, OECD report shows

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Al Dawood is back as Alujain’s CEO

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King Abdulaziz Int’l Airport Terminal Four is now operational

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Family offices pile into public equities as inflation overtakes tariffs as top concern

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