Happy Thursday, ladies and gentlemen. We’re closing out the week with what has shaped up to be a busy, regulation-heavy news day.
Spare a thought for whoever runs a book that is currently 20%-plus offshore. They now have six months to get under that threshold, and fund managers selling down their assets abroad have nowhere to put the proceeds but here at home. A buyer working to a deadline pays up, so local short-term yields should fall well before any of it surfaces in published holdings.
Meanwhile, two things to check back in on — one in a few months, and one in two years. The defense half-year was spent under a plan written before the summer, so it carries nothing about the war. Watch 2H instead — extra money showing up as emergency spending, on top of what was already scheduled, is the sign the plan has changed. The SME strategy runs slower. It only works if small companies turn into medium ones and stay there, and nobody counts that month to month.
The EnterpriseAM Egypt Forum is less than a month away — and here's some of what’s shaping up on the agenda:
- Where AI fits on the list of topics keeping CEOs awake at night
- What AI means for your company, your team, your job, and your family
- What's the AI opportunity for Egypt
- Building the AI infrastructure
And more panels to come.
Join us on 5 October in Cairo. Attendance is by invitation only, and seats are filling up quickly.
Request your invitation here.
War watch
The Houthis told US officials in Oman they would not target American or Israeli ships, pledging to avoid commercial vessels except Saudi-owned ships and to uphold the 2025 ceasefire with the US, Reuters reports, citing sources familiar with the matter. The meeting, which Oman helped organize, took place over the weekend at the US Embassy in Muscat. US Vice President JD Vance previously said Washington was in direct contact with the group.
ICYMI- Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman asked US President Donald Trump for military support against the Houthis earlier this week. Washington declined direct military action, offering intelligence-sharing and targeting support instead. Trump said the Houthis had told his administration they did not want US involvement and were letting most ships pass.
Oil watch
Saudi Arabia aims to bring roughly half the East-West pipeline back online “within days,” Bloomberg reports, citing a source with knowledge of the matter. The pipeline has been the Kingdom’s main oil export mechanism since the Strait of Hormuz became risky for vessels. Repair estimates for the pipeline, which was hit with drone strikes last week, vary from five to six weeks.
In the meantime, the barrels are going east: Aramco is selling more oil deliveries from outside the Strait of Hormuz with ship-to-ship transfers from the Gulf of Oman, traders tell Bloomberg. Saudi Arabia doubled daily crude loadings from Ras Tanura and Juaymah to two VLCCs, or about 4 mn barrels, over the past week, Reuters reports, citing Energy Aspects satellite data. Kpler data also showed four VLCCs, with capacity for 8 mn barrels, loading at Ras Tanura on Wednesday.
The workaround: Cargoes are being transferred off Oman’s Sohar port, so buyers take delivery outside Hormuz, although the crude still has to transit the strait before the transfer. Aramco sold around 20 mn barrels to Asian refiners this week for September and October loading, offering Arab Light, Medium, and Heavy to term buyers, with at least two similar offers in recent weeks. Buyers include Chinese state and independent refiners and other East Asian importers.
The pivot predates the attack: TankerTrackers estimated 8.7 mn barrels loaded on Monday and put the rise in Gulf and Red Sea exports at 77% over the two weeks before the pipeline was hit, which it attributed to the Kingdom capitalizing on stronger US naval protection in the Gulf.
The buffer: Stocks at western export terminals stand at 14 mn barrels, with another 12 mn barrels stored at Egypt’s Sidi Kerir and Ain Sokhna. Optimism about a near-term restart is building, according to a Citigroup note, which is in line with US Energy Secretary Chris Wright’s assessment that a restart is possible within a matter of days.
2026’s first rate hike
The Saudi Central Bank has raised repo and reverse repo rates for the first time this year by 25 basis points to 4.5% and 4.0%, respectively, according to a statement. The move followed the Federal Reserve’s decision to hike rates by a quarter point to 3.75-4%.
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The big story abroad
News of the Fed’s rate hike is all over the front pages today. We dive into the decision, as well as its rationale and wider context in Planet Finance below.
In the AI world: Crux AI, the joint cloud venture launched by Alphabet and Blackstone, has secured USD 22 bn in debt financing from a 10-bank syndicate that includes Goldman Sachs and Barclays. The venture — which aims to bring its first 500 MW of capacity online next year — reflects a broader surge in AI infrastructure spending, where tech firms are raising bns of USD to fund data center construction to keep pace with soaring compute demand.
Atomic power behind AI revolution on hold? Nuclear energy player Holtec International has put its IPO plans on hold as a “perfect storm” affects the AI industry, company CEO Kris Singh said. The company — which has expanded into restarting a dormant Michigan nuclear facility and developing small modular reactors — had planned to raise USD 900 mn this week, while the US nuclear sector lines up tens of bns of USD to back the AI boom.
Major defaults in Turkey: Istanbul-based asset manager Tera Portfoy Yonetimi announced that two of its funds, managing USD 7.5 bn in assets, were unable to process investor redemptions. This news follows a default just one day prior by fellow Turkish manager Pusula Portfoy Yonetimi, which helped trigger a 7.7% plunge in the Borsa Istanbul 100 Index — its sharpest single-day loss since March 2025.



