Saudi can build a car by 2030, can it build the industry?

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

Saudi Arabia lines up USD 8 bn debt package

Good morning, folks. We have a brisk but exciting issue this morning, as Saudi plans to make the country’s own EV by 2030 fall under the microscope. Our lead story tackles the effort required to build the industry inside the Kingdom. Next up, Saudi Arabia has taken a great leap in tech, with dozens of agreements inked at the Leap conference spanning data centers, AI, and cloud infrastructure.

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Emergency funds

Saudi Arabia is preparing a USD 8 bn debt package as the National Debt Management Center and Aramco discuss new loans with global banks, Bloomberg reports, citing sources familiar with the discussions. The Kingdom is turning to international lenders to fortify its balance sheet amid the conflict with Iran. As talks are still in the early stages, either transaction could fall through, the sources said.

The Kingdom’s economy is coming under mounting pressure from the war with Iran and Houthi threats. In 2Q, real GDP contracted 4.8% y-o-y, marking the first annual decline since 4Q 2023 and its steepest since 2Q 2020. The downturn was driven almost entirely by the oil sector, where activities plunged 24.7% as Aramco curtailed output following the near-closure of the Strait of Hormuz.

Winding down

The Public Investment Fund (PIF) will lend LIV Golf less than USD 100 mn to get through a bankruptcy that could be filed as soon as next week. The debtor-in-possession facility will be the last bit of PIF money going into the league, the Financial Times reports, citing people familiar with the matter. LIV has set up a New Jersey subsidiary, allowing it to file for Chapter 11 there.

LIV has reportedly asked players to write off most of what it owes them after 2026, offering settlements worth a fraction of their contracted guarantees. The FT ties the “cents on the USD” payments to PIF’s refusal to fund the gap. A prepackaged bankruptcy would let LIV clear those claims while paying players in equity and other terms tied to LIV 2.0, the league’s scale-down, 10-event 2027 format. Players could settle and join the new league, settle without joining, or pursue their contractual payments as unsecured creditors alongside vendors and advisers already owed USD mns.

BC Partners is weighing up to USD 300 mn for LIV’s assets, near the top of the USD 250-350 mn the league has been seeking. That would value it at roughly what the league needs to survive, but is below what PIF paid for it.

REMEMBER- LIV previously canceled its season-ending Team Championship, scheduled to be played next week in Michigan, opting to focus on its next chapter. This is the second event to be canceled since PIF decided to halt its funding after the 2026 season.

Three-year leadership

Pakistan to head Makkah pact secretariat: Saudi Arabia, Turkey, and Pakistan have agreed to establish a ‌secretariat in Saudi Arabia under their Makkah Joint Defense Agreement, SPA reports. The body will initially be headed by a Pakistani secretary-general ⁠for a three-year term.

ICYMI: Officials from each of the three countries met in Istanbul yesterday for the first committee meeting under the Makkah defense pact, signed last month, which commits its three Sunni-majority members to treat an armed attack on any one of them as an attack on all.

Moving on up

Tam Development is making its way to Tadawul’s main market after the company’s board approved its transfer from Nomu, according to a Tadawul disclosure. The move requires approval from the Saudi Exchange and for Tam to meet the amended listing rules in full. Tam tapped Istidama Financial as its financial adviser to manage the transfer process.

The Nomu-to-Tadawul jumps have come in pairs this year: Alwasail Industrial and Nofoth Food Products moved up in January, followed by Armah Sports and Ladun Investment in August.

Off to the SPL

Al Hilal has signed Ollie Watkins from Aston Villa on a three-year contract, paying a reported USD 69 mn for the 30-year-old striker, Reuters reports. The club didn’t disclose the terms of the agreement in its statement. Watkins leaves Aston Villa as the club’s record Premier League goalscorer, with 91 goals, 108 across all competitions, and 21 last season.

The rest of the league is going the other way: Saudi Arabia’s summer transfer outlays fell 47.7% y-o-y to EUR 222 mn, with Al Hilal and Al Ahli together accounting for 67% of the total. Al Hilal previously signed winger Crysencio Summerville from West Ham United this window and is close to signing Gabriel Martinelli from Arsenal, which would make the Kingdom’s heaviest spender this summer the club in which PIF no longer holds a majority.

REMEMBER- The Public Investment Fund sold 70% of Al Hilal Club Company to Kingdom Holding in April for SAR 840 mn, based on an enterprise value of SAR 1.4 bn and an equity value of SAR 1.2 bn. The Saudi Sports Ministry transferred the 25% stake held by a nonprofit foundation in Al Hilal to the fund earlier in August, making PIF a 30% minority owner.

Data point

3.2% — that’s how much Saudi Arabia’s wholesale and retail operating revenues rose y-o-y in 2Q 2026, according to Gastat (pdf). Retail trade, excluding motor vehicles and motorcycles, led the growth, with revenues up 5.2%. Motor vehicle sales and repair rose 2.7%, and wholesale trade increased 0.8%. The sector also recorded a 9% rise in employee compensation and a 9.8% increase in e-commerce sales, while car sales edged up 0.6%. On a q-o-q basis, the overall operating revenue index increased 0.6%.

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The big story abroad

Political drama at the G20 finance meeting has top billing in the international press today, after Russia’s participation drew opposition from European officials. This week’s summit of finance ministers and central bankers in North Carolina marks Russian Finance Minister Anton Siluanov’s first time at a G20 meeting since Moscow’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine.

Amazon in hot water: The US Federal Trade Commission has filed a suit against Amazon, alleging that the e-commerce giant misled advertisers by manipulating the prices they paid to promote products on its platform. The suit, filed by a bipartisan coalition of 22 states, claims Amazon illegally made USD 20 bn by deceiving some 1.2 mn US advertising customers.

Logistics is big in Japan: US-based investment firm Ares Management, through its real estate arm, raised USD 4 bn for its fifth logistics development fund, which is almost 50% larger than its predecessor. The Japan Logistics Development Partners fund reached its maximum target, marking the unit’s largest closed-end institutional fundraise, drawing investments from pension funds, sovereign wealth funds, and insurers across four continents.

A Saudi-designed EV by 2030 looks achievable, but the industry behind it is a bigger wager

Saudi Arabia looks set to put a locally designed electric vehicle on the road within five years, but the bigger question is what gets built around it. Two analysts close to the build-out tell EnterpriseAM that a Saudi-designed, Saudi-assembled car is achievable on the current timeline. The harder task is turning that car into an industry that creates most of its value inside the Kingdom.

The car is the straightforward part

Saudi EV brand Ceer has its designs locked, and production is due in 4Q 2026, with a plant built for stamping, body construction, painting, and final assembly, Partner and Automotive Lead at Deloitte Middle East Joerg Meiser tells us. Lucid’s AMP-2 line already reassembles imported kits, giving the Kingdom an operating base, a trained workforce, and local logistics. “A first Saudi-designed EV within five years is therefore credible,” Meiser says.

But a car is not an industry. “Assembly can be stood up quickly; the deeper processes, and the supplier base behind them, cannot,” Meiser says. The difficulty lies in “scaling output reliably, pulling demand away from [internal combustion engines], and raising Saudi-made content.” PwC Partner and Global eMobility leader Heiko Seitz draws the same distinction: a KSA-designed and manufactured vehicle “should be distinguished from a fully localized value chain. The first is achievable within that timeframe; the second is a longer-term industrial journey.”

How much is actually made here?

Lucid’s AMP-2 shows where the Kingdom actually sits today. The line reassembles Air and Gravity kits shipped from Arizona at around 5k units a year, and the stamping, body-welding, and paint facilities are still under construction rather than running commercially, Meiser says. Ceer plans to run those deeper manufacturing steps locally from launch, though its specialist technology stays imported.

Why it matters: That is real manufacturing activity, but it is not yet a self-contained industry. Final assembly imports most of the value with it; the case for the whole exercise rests further up the chain, in jobs, exports, a domestic supplier base, and how much of the car is actually made here.

Scale is the whole game

Everything else hangs on volume. “Suppliers invest locally only when they see predictable volume,” Seitz says. Manufacturers need capable suppliers to build a competitive product, while buyers want competitive cars, reliable charging, and after-sales support before they switch. That makes a localized auto industry an “ecosystem challenge, not simply a manufacturing one,” Seitz says. The factories, suppliers, workforce, infrastructure, and demand all have to develop together. The anchor investments are now in place, he says, and the work ahead is to connect them.

Not everything has to be built at home. Some critical parts like battery cells and materials, semiconductors, and advanced electronics will stay globally sourced for years to come, Seitz says. That’s hardly surprising, with China producing more than 80% of the world’s battery cells in 2025. Saudi Arabia can therefore build a genuine auto industry without making every component at home; the goal is to steadily raise local content while keeping access to technologies and components that don’t make economic sense to produce locally.

Much of the early capability is being brought in. Ceer is working with Foxconn, BMW, Siemens, Rimac, and others on technology, equipment, and production, while Lucid is bringing US-developed vehicles, technology, and supply chains as it moves toward deeper Saudi production. The test is whether those partnerships leave something behind — engineering skills, quality systems, supplier depth, and more responsibility in Saudi hands. Ceer’s 45% Saudi-sourced content target by 2034 offers one measure.

Where’s the appetite?

The open question is whether enough Saudis will buy EVs to justify increasing capacity, and here the two readings split. PwC’s consumer research found that more than 40% of Saudi consumers are considering an EV purchase within three years, with EVs potentially exceeding 30% of new light-duty sales by 2030, Seitz says. Deloitte’s data points to a more cautious trend: EVs accounted for roughly 7% of sales in 2025, most of them hybrids, Meiser says. Its 2026 Middle East study also found that petrol led purchase intent, with price and range anxiety still weighing on EV adoption.

Neither expert expects domestic demand alone to fill planned capacity, and both put exports in the model from the start. Anchor commitments help. The state has agreed to buy 50-100k Lucid vehicles over 10 years, Meiser says, and the Electric Vehicle Infrastructure Company plans more than 5k chargers. Reaching scale will still take GCC and wider export markets, competitive pricing, and continued incentives.

What to watch

Two milestones will show whether the strategy is moving beyond the factory floor. Ceer’s 4Q 2026 production start will test whether its deeper manufacturing processes can run at scale. The 45% local-content target for 2034 will show whether the Kingdom is building more than an assembly operation.

The risk in between is straightforward: capacity could outpace demand, while supplier capabilities and skills take longer to develop. For Saudi Arabia’s EV push, getting the first car on the road may be the easier milestone. Building the industry around it is a much bigger test.

The wider payoff, on paper: PwC’s latest eMobility Outlook estimates around USD 39 bn in ecosystem investment, USD 8 bn added to GDP by 2034, and more than 30k jobs. Deloitte cites Ceer’s targets of more than SAR 30 bn in GDP contribution, a SAR 79 bn trade-balance improvement, and 30k jobs by 2034, while PIF estimates a SAR 92 bn contribution from the wider cluster by 2035. Meiser cautions that these are corporate and government targets, not independent forecasts, with factory utilization, exports, and local content determining how much materializes.

Day one of Leap: Humain wires Saudi into the full AI stack

Leap is back, and Humain wasted no time. On day one of the war-delayed fifth edition of Leap, PIF’s AI arm anchored more than USD 15 bn in launches and agreements, stitching itself into every layer of the stack, from power and data centers to models and hardware. The agreement value is on track to exceed last year’s USD 14.9 bn, Communications Minister Abdullah Alswaha said.

REMEMBER- The show had been pushed back months past its usual slot after war broke out in the region in March. Its opening today is the first sign that the events calendar, and the risk appetite that travels with it, is back.

Most of day one was a power grab, denominated in megawatts.

AMD and Humain expanded their partnership to build a 250-MW first phase (from an initial 25 MW) of a 1-GW build-out with Cisco by 2030, under a collaboration worth up to USD 10 bn;
Telco STC will host Humain-owned data centers scaling from 250 MW toward 1 GW;
Amazon Web Services will add up to 50 MW of Humain capacity by 2028, offer its cloud customers Humain’s Fabric compute and Arabic Allam model, and open its first Saudi region by December;
US infrastructure firm Together AI signed a 250-MW agreement with Humain worth north of USD 5 bn in annualized revenue.

There were signs of execution:

PIF’s Humain and Saudi infrastructure developer DataVolt broke ground in Oxagon, Neom’s industrial city on the Red Sea, on 100 MW of a 360-MW AI data center — the first phase of a planned 1.5-GW campus, with initial capacity due in 2028;
Separately, Humain has switched on an AI cloud running Nvidia’s Blackwell Ultra platform and begun operating local accelerated-compute infrastructure for government and business.

And customers are moving onto the stack:

Adobe will become Humain’s first foreign tenant, running its regional AI data-labeling workloads on Humain’s locally hosted, Qualcomm-accelerated compute;
Oilfield-services giant SLB will pair Humain Fabric with its own Lumi data platform and agent-based tools to build an AI stack for large-scale energy operations, aiming the new compute at oil and gas;
Applied Intuition and Humain are doing the same on the road, aiming to deploy thousands of autonomous trucks on Saudi freight routes by 2030, later widening to robotaxis, ports, and mining.

On the device front:

Qualcomm and Humain unveiled Horizon Ultra, an AI PC on the Snapdragon X2 Elite processor that runs models on the device. It reaches enterprise buyers on 20 September, with a Humain-built operating system due in 2027;
Microsoft and Humain bundled the Humain ONE assistant with 365 Copilot and launched a Windows-based Humain AI PC. Microsoft plans to open its own Saudi cloud region in November;
Lenovo unveiled the first locally manufactured laptop coming off a new Riyadh line built with PIF’s ALAT that is meant to produce the full device portfolio, from PCs to Motorola phones and servers. Mass production is set for late 2026.

And the widest reach comes last: Adobe, Humain, and MCIT will give 27 mn+ residents a free year of Firefly and Express, alongside a Saudi-focused Arabic image model.

Arabian Drilling signs deal with SLB to provide 11 land rigs, adds SAR 3 bn to backlog

Arabian Drilling gets five-year runway from SLB

Arabian Drilling has signed a five-year contract with SLB to provide 11 land rigs for gas operations, adding roughly SAR 3 bn to its backlog, according to a Tadawul disclosure. The gas-related lump-sum turnkey (LSTK) rigs are the same units already working on the previous SLB gas project, with income flowing from 3Q 2026 through 2031.

REMEMBER- These same 11 LSTK gas rigs were on a one-year extension with SLB signed in August 2025 (pdf). That agreement followed a 2025 renewal of six rigs that brought in more than SAR 2.4 bn in backlog. The new five-year term replaces that rolling short-term arrangement with a longer commitment. SLB owns 34.3% of Arabian Drilling.

Wheat and corn surge as Black Sea risks meet hawkish Fed

A war-driven commodity shock and a hawkish Fed are hitting the same import bills at once. Wheat settled at 784 cents a bushel on Friday, its highest close since February 2023, up 12.1% on the week and more than 54.5% YTD, CNBC reports. December corn settled at 536.5 cents a bushel, its highest close since July 2023 and up 21.8% YTD. The corn contract was up 15.6% in August, putting it on track for its best month since April 2021.

IN CONTEXT- This rally comes as Russia prepares to intensify attacks on Ukrainian infrastructure after peace talks reached a dead end, Bloomberg reported last week. Russia and Ukraine together account for more than a quarter of global wheat exports, while damage to port and grain export infrastructure, attacks on vessels, and rising ins. costs are disrupting what is still moving through the Black Sea and Sea of Azov.

The exposure isn’t uniform. Jordan had already canceled two wheat tenders and two barley tenders that month after receiving few offers amid high prices and shipping risk. Tunisia was warning suppliers against invoking force majeure. Indonesia — the No. 2 global buyer — had locked in roughly 600k tons from former Soviet exporters for July-September while already scouting Bulgaria, Australia, Romania, and Argentina as backups, Reuters reported last week. Algeria, Bangladesh, Thailand, and Vietnam also rely heavily on Russian and Ukrainian wheat.

Egypt is the sharpest case in that group. The country is the world’s largest wheat importer and sourced more than 82% of its wheat imports from Russia and Ukraine in the first half of 2026. Unlike Jordan or Tunisia, Egypt’s bread subsidy program is a fixed budget line, not a purchase it can defer. The private sector, which handles more than half of Egypt’s wheat needs and holds thinner inventories than the state buyer, is absorbing most of the near-term pain, and President Abdel Fattah El Sisi has discussed the threat to food supplies directly with his Ukrainian counterpart Volodymyr Zelenskyy.

Egypt’s exposure isn’t limited to wheat. The country is also a major corn importer for poultry and animal feed, with Brazil supplying roughly half those inflows through mid-May 2026. A corn rally on top of a wheat rally means the feed and protein side of the food bill is moving at the same time as bread.

Then there’s the currency leg. Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s Friday remarks at Jackson Hole read hawkish enough that markets are now pricing higher odds of a September hike, CNBC reports, with Principal Asset Management’s Seema Shah telling the network that “the positive market reaction highlights that investors place a premium on policy clarity, even when that clarity carries a more hawkish message.” Every importer on that list is now paying more USD for the same wheat, with less room from the Fed to absorb it, but Egypt may be carrying a bigger, less flexible bill than Jordan’s or Tunisia’s.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets opened lower today, with Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi both about 0.5% in the red. This tracks with Wall Street’s overnight losses across the Dow Jones, S&P 500, and Nasdaq.

TASI	11,127	-0.3% (YTD: +6.1%)
MSCI Tadawul 30	1,499	-0.2% (YTD: +8.1%)
NomuC	21,747	-0.1% (YTD: -6.7%)
USD : SAR (SAMA)	USD 3.75 Sell	USD 3.75 Buy
Interest rates	4.25% repo	3.75% reverse repo
EGX30	54,866	-0.1% (YTD: +31.2%)
ADX	10,007	-0.4% (YTD: +0.2%)
DFM	5,836	-0.8% (YTD: -3.5%)
S&P 500	7,686	-0.3% (YTD: +12.3%)
FTSE 100	10,824	+0.3% (YTD: +9.0%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,420	-1.0% (YTD: +10.8%)
Brent crude	USD 90.49	+2.7%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.93	-0.1%
Gold	USD 4,494	+0.3%
BTC	USD 79,006	+0.5% (YTD: -9.9%)
Sukuk/bond market index	907.24	+0.2% (YTD: -1.3%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	151.34	-0.1% (YTD: -0.4%)
VIX (Fear gauge)	14.92	+3.4% (YTD: -0.2%)

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI fell 0.3% yesterday on turnover of SAR 10.3 bn. The index is up 6.1% YTD.

In the green: Middle East Specialized Cables (+8.7%), East Pipes Integrated Company for Industry (+5.4%), and Saudi Cable (+4.7%).

In the red: Naseej International Trading (-10.0%), Armah Sports (-5.3%), and Umm Al Qura for Development and Construction (-4.9%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC fell 0.1% yesterday on turnover of SAR 30.1 mn. The index is down 6.7% YTD.

In the green: Alfakhera for Mens Tailoring (+14.7%), Natural Gas Distribution (+14.4%), and Watani Iron Steel (+9.7%).

In the red: Altharwah Albashariyyah (-17.9%), Meyar (-13.4%), and Jamjoom Fashion Trading (-10.0%).

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Dallah Healthcare shareholders approved a 20% capital increase to SAR 1.22 bn through a bonus share issuance, with shareholders receiving one share for every five shares held, the firm said in a Tadawul filing. The SAR 203.1 mn increase will be funded by capitalizing SAR 93.6 mn from the statutory reserve and SAR 109.5 mn from the share premium account.

CALENDAR

AUGUST

30 August-1 September (Sunday-Tuesday): Saudi Paper and Packaging Expo, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

31 August-3 September (Monday-Thursday): Leap Tech Conference, Riyadh Exhibition & Convention Center - Malham.

SEPTEMBER

8-10 September (Tuesday-Thursday): The WTM Spotlight Riyadh, Riyadh Front Exhibition & Conference Center (RFECC), Riyadh.

14-17 September (Monday-Thursday) The fourth Unesco Global Forum on the Ethics of AI (GFEAI), The Ritz-Carlton, Riyadh.

15-17 September (Tuesday-Thursday) The Global AI Summit, King Abdulaziz International Convention Center, Riyadh.

23 September (Wednesday): Saudi National Day.

28 September-1 October (Monday-Thursday): The International Conference on Theory and Practice of Electronic Governance (ICEGOV), Prince Sultan University, Riyadh.

OCTOBER

25-26 October (Sunday-Monday): The Global Proptech Summit, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

26-28 October (Monday-Wednesday): ACHEMA Middle East, Riyadh International Convention & Exhibition Center.

26-29 October (Monday-Thursday): The Future Investment Initiative, King Abdulaziz International Conference Center, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Procurement and Supply Chain Futures Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

28-29 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Real Estate Supply Chain Forum, Mandarin Oriental Al Faisaliah Hotel, Riyadh.

30 October-1 November (Friday-Sunday): The New Global Sport Conference, Sofitel Hotel & Convention Centre, Riyadh.

NOVEMBER

11-12 November (Wednesday-Thursday): Aluminum Arabia, The Arena, Riyadh.

16-19 November (Monday-Thursday): Cityscape Global, Riyadh Exhibition and Convention Centre (Malham), Riyadh.

29 November-1 December (Sunday-Tuesday): The UN Trade and Development Global Supply Chain Forum, Riyadh.

29 November-1 December (Sunday-Tuesday): The Global Logistics Forum, King Abdulaziz International Convention Centre, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

2H: Sabic’s USD 6.4 bn Fujian project in China to start production;
November: The Esports Nations Cup, Riyadh;
The World Economic Forum’s Global Collaboration and Growth Meeting, Jeddah;

2027

FEBRUARY

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): Energy Regulators Regional Association annual conference, Riyadh.

MARCH

21-25 March (Sunday-Thursday):The World Water Forum, Riyadh.

22–24 March (Monday-Wednesday): Capital Markets Forum, Four Seasons Hotel, Riyadh

APRIL

26-29 April (Monday-Thursday): World Energy Congress, Riyadh.

JUNE

1-3 June (Tuesday-Thursday): The Saudi Entertainment and Amusement Expo, Riyadh Front Exhibition and Conference Center.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

The Ocean Race finishes in Amaala on the Red Sea;
Riyadh-Kudmi transmission line to be completed;
Aero Middle East and Sand & Fun takes place in Thumamah Airport, Riyadh.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2Q 2027:

The Hail Region Water Networks Project is expected to be completed.

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