The Gulf was a rare winner in a global investment year that rewarded fewer and fewer places

The Gulf was one of the few places global investors actually showed up in 2025. FDI into West Asia rose 20% to almost USD 111 bn, 10 times the 2% growth the developing world managed as a whole, according to the UN Trade and Development’s (UNCTAD) World Investment Report 2026 (pdf). The UAE and Saudi drove the figure on energy, infrastructure and diversification spending, while Qatar's inflows jumped from USD 460 mn to USD 3 bn on chemicals and energy deals.

The region is now writing cheques as often as cashing them. The UAE ranks among the world's top 10 sources of outbound FDI, alongside China, Hong Kong, and Singapore. Emirati capital sat behind some of the year’s largest greenfield projects across the wider neighborhood — the USD 24 bn Ras El Hekma development in Egypt, a USD 34 bn renewables project in Mauritania, and a USD 6 bn hydrogen play in Tunisia. Saudi’s Dar Al Arkan committed USD 4.2 bn to real estate in Oman, while Qatar's Power International put USD 4 bn into Syria.

Egypt kept its place as Africa’s largest FDI recipient, pulling in some USD 15 bn. Strip out the one-off Ras El Hekma megaproject that inflated 2024, and underlying inflows actually rose about a quarter, helped by the USD 3.5 bn Alam El Roum gas deal.

Globally, foreign direct investment shook off a two-year slump in 2025, growing 6% to USD 1.6 tn. The headline figure masks a more uneven picture, with the top 20 host economies absorbing more than 80% of global inflows.

The structural signal underneath is worth noting. Capital is concentrating hard in a few advanced hubs and a narrow band of strategic sectors — AI infrastructure, semiconductors, data centers — that nearly tripled their share of global greenfield spending since 2020. Just 10% of that strategic money reached low- and lower-middle-income economies.

And the old pathway is closing too. Non-strategic manufacturing — the labor-heavy industry that once powered earlier stages of development — fell 17% globally in 2015-2019 and 2021-2025. The decline was sharpest where it hurts most, falling 20% in developing economies and 65% in least developed countries.

What’s next: Don’t expect the map to even out. UNCTAD reads slower growth, trade-policy uncertainty, and high financing costs as reasons for firms to delay or cancel projects through the year, while the strong balance sheets of the biggest multinationals keep high-value capital flowing into the same handful of sectors and the same handful of places. The real question for the region’s diversification bets is which side of that line they end up on.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets opened higher this morning as investors shook off President Trump’s statements about a return to conflict. South Korea’s Kospi led the regional rally, surging 3.8%, while Japan’s Nikkei followed with a solid 2.3% gain.

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI was flat yesterday on turnover of SAR 4.4 bn. The index is up 3.5% YTD.

In the green: Entaj (+9.1%), Tanmiah (+8.3%), and Al Mawarid (+4.3%).

In the red: Tasheel (-10.0%), Enaya (-10.0%), and Thimar Development (-6.6%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC fell 0.3% yesterday on turnover of SAR 13.4 mn. The index is down 3.0% YTD.

In the green: Aqaseem Factory (+20.8%), Altharwah Albashariyyah (+13.3%), and MSGA Investment (+10.0%).

In the red: Taqat (-8.7%), Ratio Speciality (-8.0%), and Riyal Investment (-7.6%).

Corporate actions

Acwa Power’s board approved a new dividend policy covering 2026-2030, committing to pay out at least 30% of its annual net income attributable to shareholders each year, it said in a Tadawul disclosure . Dividends will comprise a mix of actual payouts and bonus shares, with liquid payments accounting for at least 50% of the total declared in any given year. The program takes effect in 2027, applying to the financial year ending 31 December.