Saudi’s April crude production drops to lows unseen since 1990

The Iran war disruptions took a big bite out of Saudi crude oil production in April, bringing it down to the lowest levels seen since the 1990 Gulf War.

How bad is the hit? The Kingdom reported an output of a little over 6.3 mn bbl / d last month, according to Opec’s monthly report. That’s down by 651k bbl / d compared to March, and the lowest monthly output in 36 years, as per Bloomberg ’s tally. Production has now collapsed by roughly 4.6 mn bbl / d from February’s 10.88 mn bbl / d.

The gap between production and supply is doing the talking. April’s supply-to-market came in at 6.88 mn bbl / d, meaning Riyadh drew down roughly 560k bbl / d from inventories to keep barrels flowing to customers even as wellheads were shut in.

REMEMBER- Red Sea terminals can only handle lighter crude streams, leaving the medium and heavy barrels stranded behind the Strait of Hormuz.

The broader picture is just as severe. Total Opec crude production fell to 33.19 mn bbl / d in April, down 1.74 mn bbl / d m-o-m. Kuwait took the biggest proportional hit, shedding 561k bbl / d, while Iraq lost 291k bbl / d, and Iran 211k bbl / d. Only Libya, Nigeria, and Algeria (all outside the GCC) managed gains.

Opec and the IEA still can’t see eye to eye

Opec and the International Energy Association cannot agree on what this means for demand, exacerbating a trend of clashing narratives about oil markets. Both released their May reports yesterday with starkly different takes on whether the shock is breaking the consumer side of the market.

On one side, Opec trimmed its 2026 demand growth forecast to 1.2 mn bbl / d, down from 1.4 mn bbl / d in March. The oil cartel’s framing is that the global economy is “resilient” at 3.1% growth, with Asian momentum, US fiscal support from the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act,” and AI-driven investment offsetting the energy shock. The group even sees 2027 demand growth accelerating to 1.5 mn bbl / d, a 0.2 mn bbl / d upward revision.

The IEA is team demand destruction, seeing the world losing 420k bbl / d of demand in 2026 — a 1.3 mn bbl / d swing from its pre-conflict trajectory. The second quarter alone is expected to see a 2.45 mn bbl / d contraction, with petrochemicals and aviation taking the heaviest blows. That’s more than a 1.6 mn bbl / d headline gap on this year’s demand growth between the two organizations.