2026’s largest US tech IPO has Abu Dhabi's AI thesis riding on it

The largest US tech IPO of 2026 — a UAE-backed AI chipmaker — will price an already overflowing book this week. Cerebras’ offering of 30 mn shares is already 20x covered, with the California-based business expected to raise its price range by USD 35 per share to USD 150-160 as early as today, Reuters reports, citing people it says are in the know. The top of the rumored range implies a market cap of roughly USD 34 bn at listing (up from USD 23 bn in February) and IPO proceeds of about USD 4.8 bn (up from USD 3.5 bn originally), by our math.

Read this as the moment US capital markets put a number on Abu Dhabi's AI thesis. UAE entities make up 86% of the AI chipmaker’s revenue. Mohamed bin Zayed University of AI, the research anchor of the UAE's entire AI strategy, accounted for 62% of the firm's 2025 top line, and Abu Dhabi-backed AI firm G42 accounted for 24%, according to the prospectus. G42 alone drove 85% of Cerebras’ revenue in 2024.

ICYMI- The AI chipmaker first filed to go public in 2024, but the Committee on Foreign Investment in the US opened a formal investigation into G42’s minority position over concerns that G42’s ties to Chinese tech companies could undermine US export controls and give Beijing access to advanced AI chips. The move was ultimately cleared after Cerebras restructured G42’s equity stake into non-voting shares with no board influence, following some diplomatic lifting by UAE national security advisor Tahnoun bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

The commercial tie-up runs deeper than any shareholding anyway. The semiconductor firm is also deploying AI infrastructure inside the UAE’s Stargate project — the cluster being built alongside Nvidia, OpenAI, and Oracle, which is set to be operational this year with an initial 200 MW capacity, ITP reports, making the case for Cerebras as the compute backbone of a sovereign AI strategy.

The pitch? Cerebras is a credible Nvidia alternative with wafer-scale chips, backed by OpenAI compute demand and AWS. The business printed headline net income last year — driven by a non-operating accounting gain — with its top line up 20-fold in three years, according to ITP. Whether the market is right to price in a smooth transition to a more global revenue mix — implied by the OpenAI and AWS agreements but not yet visible in the financials — is the open question underneath the 20x book.

A live test case for the model: If Cerebras’ IPO prices well and trades above offer, it validates Abu Dhabi's early wager on AI infrastructure and gives the UAE-backed play a clean read-through in public markets, ITP’s Pavneet Kaur argues. It also sets the “template” moving forward that GCC participation comes with tighter guardrails around control and access to sensitive US tech.

ADVISORS- Morgan Stanley, Citigroup, Barclays, and UBS are quarterbacking the transaction, among others.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets are mixed in early trading this morning as investors try to digest rising geopolitical tension and rising crude prices. The Nikkei is down over 0.3%, while South Korea’s Kospi is looking at gains that pushed it to fresh highs. It remains unclear how Wall Street will open, with futures fluctuating between gains and losses.

THE CLOSING BELL: TADAWUL-

The TASI rose 0.8% yesterday on turnover of SAR 4.9 bn. The index is up 6.0% YTD.

In the green: Elm (+5.4%), Middle East Paper (+5.3%), and Catrion Catering Holding (+5.0%).

In the red: National Medical Care (-10.0%), Saudi Arabian Amiantit (-7.0%), and Advanced Building Industries (-6.6%).

THE CLOSING BELL: NOMU-

The NomuC was flat yesterday on turnover of SAR 23 mn. The index is down 2.8% YTD.

In the green: Foods Gate Trading (+10.0%), Axelerated Solutions (+8.0%), and Mohammed Hasan AlNaqool Sons (+7.3%).

In the red: Wajd Life Trading (-10.7%), Mulkia Investment (-9.1%), and Alshehili Company for Metal Industries (-7.5%).