Opec’s center of gravity shifts to Saudi Arabia as UAE exits group

The UAE’s exit from Opec and Opec+ leaves Saudi Arabia as the cartel’s undisputed anchor — the only producer with the spare capacity to move markets — at a time when regional disruptions are already rattling supply chains and pricing.

It may have been an abrupt exit, but the policy divergence between Riyadh and Abu Dhabi over production strategy has consistently grown wider, with the UAE not seeing eye-to-eye on output quotas. “The outcome has long been in the making,” global oil markets strategist and former head of research at Onyx Group Harry Tchilinguirian tells EnterpriseAM.

The Saudi position now: With the UAE out of the group as of this Friday, 1 May, Saudi Arabia stands as the market’s sole swing producer, raising questions about how sustainable that role is without internal alignment, Rystad Energy’s Jorge Leon told Reuters.

A structurally significant split: The UAE has long been one of the bloc’s heavyweights alongside Saudi Arabia, with meaningful spare capacity — the key lever Opec uses to move markets — making its departure structurally different from past defections. “The UAE’s exit is very significant as it’s a top-tier producer with high spare capacity and strong compliance with prior quotas,” Rabobank Energy Strategist Florence Schmit tells EnterpriseAM.

Mechanically, the exit removes 3-4 mn barrels daily of swing capacity. That capacity is what allows for breathing room and gives the cartel the ability to respond when Hormuz closes or pipelines rupture, Wolfgang Lehmacher, former head of supply chain and transport industries at the World Economic Forum, tells EnterpriseAM. Opec’s ability to smooth out supply imbalances without the UAE in the mix is significantly undermined, Carnegie’s Sergey Vakulenko adds. “Most participants lack excess capacity and need pooled coordination as protection against volatility they cannot absorb individually,” Lehmacher notes.

Pulling back the curtain

The keyword for the UAE: Flexibility. “The decision reflects a policy-driven evolution in the UAE’s approach, enhancing flexibility to respond to market dynamics while continuing to contribute to stability in a measured and responsible manner,” the Emirati government said.

The UAE has been planning to ramp up production by as much as 30%, which doesn’t fit neatly in Opec’s quota system, Vakulenko told Reuters. Even the group’s shift toward capacity-based quotas — designed to better align targets with real production — has failed to bridge the gap between the UAE’s expanding capacity and the limits imposed by the system. The group is effectively managing three different versions of supply — self-reported output, secondary data, and official targets. “By exiting Opec, the UAE could increase production beyond its current quota … potentially achieving a capacity closer to 4.8 mn barrels per day, MENA economist Hamzeh Al Gaaodwrites in a note (pdf) shared with EnterpriseAM. The UAE also has around “1.85 mn barrels daily of stranded throughput capacity from USD 150 bn in built infrastructure, Lehmacher adds.

The move was entirely the UAE’s and the country didn’t consult other members before pulling the trigger, Energy Minister Suhail Al Mazrouei tells Reuters, framing the move as a result of a review of current and future production policies. “The UAE’s exit from OPEC would mark a decisive shift toward an independent, state-driven oil strategy,” Al Gaaod says. This allows the country to leverage its position as a supplier of some of the world’s lowest-cost barrels.

What it’s (officially) not about: “This has nothing to do with any of our brothers and friends within the group… We have the highest respect for the Saudis for leading Opec,” Al Mazrouei also said. The UAE chose now to make the announcement to avoid a severe impact on oil prices and on Opec cartel members, Al Mazrouei added, citing the closure of the Strait of Hormuz and the shortages it’s leading to in the market.

A well-timed exit?

The market is already distorted: “Now is probably the least damaging time to announce it — oil prices are high, ⁠and there are genuine shortages because of Hormuz closure,” Vakulenko says, noting that even “after Hormuz reopens, there will be elevated demand as countries will be replenishing reserves that were drawn down since February, ⁠so prices will stay high.” Still, many analysts and market watchers remain “perplexed” considering “the timing of this decision, in the context of the ongoing disruptions,” Tchilinguirian tells us.

The “immediate” impact of the UAE’s exit is likely to be muted, Al Mazrouei says. Analysts broadly agree, with Capital Economics Chief Climate and Commodities Economist David Oxley saying in a note that “the prospect of the UAE pumping more oil is somewhat moot at present given the near-complete cessation in flows through Hormuz.” Plus, markets are still pricing in the closure of Hormuz and will need to absorb that “before they can fully price the UAE leaving Opec,” Rabobank Energy Strategist Florence Schmit tells EnterpriseAM.

What this means for the market

Outside Opec, the UAE gains the freedom to increase output — and the incentive to do so — which could reshape supply dynamics once the current disruption cycle fades, Vakulenko said. The UAE leaving behind Opec’s quotas is “not only for the good of its flagship Murban futures contract, but also for its longer-term economic development, using oil revenues to finance its longer-term [economic diversification],” Tchilinguirian says.

A structurally weaker Opec points to a potentially more volatile oil market once current disruptions ease, as the group’s ability to manage supply diminishes, Leon says.

Market response: “When both transit infrastructure and governance protocols fail, operators shift from spot exposure to long-term contracted capacity with built-in resilience premiums,” Lehmacher adds.

The upshot: “The main market impact would be a significant reduction in Opec’s influence over oil prices and coordination of output,” Al Gaaod says.

What’s next

Contagion risk? “If other producers begin prioritizing market share over quota discipline, Opec’s ability to manage orderly markets through coordinated supply adjustments may increasingly be called into question,” head of Commodity Strategy at Saxo Bank Ole Hansen said in a research note seen by EnterpriseAM. If discipline erodes too far, the group’s capacity to shape the market shifts from enforcement to mere signaling.“This could be the thin end of the wedge if it triggers further disintegration of the group,” Oxley adds.

The great system rewrite: “While the UAE could potentially rejoin OPEC if market conditions stabilize, such a departure would signal more than a temporary adjustment. It would represent a fundamental transformation in both energy strategy and geopolitical alignment, with profound implications for the structure and stability of global oil markets,” Al Gaaod adds.