GDP grows at 4.5% clip in 2025, beating expectations

The Kingdom’s economy picked up steam in 2025, with real GDP expanding by 4.5% for the year — marking a major leap from the 2.7% recorded in 2024 and its strongest performance since 2022, according to flash estimates (pdf) released by the General Authority for Statistics.

Topping forecasts: The 4.5% growth rate slightly edged out the Finance Ministry’s own 4.4% projection and comfortably beat expectations from global players like the IMF (4.3%) and the World Bank (3.8%).

Under the hood-

Oil activities led the 2025 expansion, chugging along at 5.6% growth as Opec+ eased supply cuts. The Kingdom’s output hit an average of roughly 10 mn bbl / d in 4Q 2025 — the highest we’ve seen since early 2023, according to Bloomberg.

Non-oil was no slouch: Non-oil activities maintained robust momentum, growing at a 4.9% clip, “driven by oil derivatives and improvements in manufacturing (assembly),” MENA Economist Hamzeh Al Gaaod tells EnterpriseAM. Non-oil activities contributed 2.7 percentage points to the total GDP growth, nearly doubling the 1.4 percentage point contribution from oil.

Government activities grew at a steady 0.9%, adding a small but helpful 0.1 percentage point bump to the final tally alongside net taxes’ 0.2 percentage point contribution.

Ending the year on a high note

Real GDP rose 4.9% y-o-y in 4Q 2025, driven largely by a 10.4% y-o-y jump in oil activities. Non-oil sectors grew 4.1%, while government activities slipped 1.2% during the period.

On a seasonally adjusted basis, real GDP expanded 1.1% q-o-q in 4Q 2025, supported by a 1.4% rise in oil activities and a 1.3% gain in non-oil sectors. Government activity recorded a modest 0.2% decline.

(** Tap or click the headline above to read this story with all of the links to our background and outside sources.)