GCC crude exports were 12.2 mn bbl / d in 2025, more than twice what its Hormuz bypass pipelines can carry

A quarter of the world’s crude exports sits behind one strait. The GCC exported 12.2 mn bbl / d of crude in 2025, up 6.1% in 2024 and 27.3% of the global total, and world demand for its crude grew by an average of 3.1% a year between 2021 and 2025, according to the GCC Statistical Center’s weekly bulletin (pdf). Only Saudi Arabia and the UAE can pipe crude around the strait, with combined bypass export capacity at 3.5-5.5 mn bbl / d, ENR reported in March, less than half of the bloc’s 2025 exports, by our math.

GCC crude output recovered in 2025 after two years of decline. Production rose 5% y-o-y to 16.9 mn bbl / d in 2025, or 22.5% of global output, after peaking at 18.2 mn bbl / d in 2022 and falling to 16.1 mn in 2024, the bulletin shows. The bloc also produced 460.9 bcm of natural gas, or 10.6% of the world’s total, with output growing an average of 2.0% a year between 2021 and 2025. Member states hold more than 518 bn barrels of crude reserves and over 44 tn cbm of gas, GCC Secretary General Jasem Albudaiwi said in October, QNA reported.

Bypass capacity

Saudi Arabia’s pipe is bigger than its Red Sea port: The East-West pipeline can move around 7 mn bbl / d to Yanbu, with 5 mn bbl / d of that earmarked for export. A drone strike took the line offline in September, and it was moving 5.8 mn bbl / d in early October, Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman said. Aramco normally sends about 2 mn bbl / d of the pipeline’s crude to its own Red Sea refineries, and Yanbu can load only about 4-4.5 mn bbl / d for export, according to Argus.

More bypass capacity is coming: The UAE’s Habshan-Fujairah line carries about 1.5-1.8 mn bbl / d, and a second line due in early 2027 could double that. Saudi Arabia wants to pipe up to 10 mn bbl / d of crude outside the Gulf within two to three years, though it hasn’t made routes, costs, or a timeline public. As of mid-October, temporarily converting a gas line could add about 1.2 mn bbl / d within seven to eight weeks.

For LNG, there is no bypass around the strait: Missile strikes on Ras Laffan in March damaged two production trains, taking 12.8 mn tons of annual capacity offline, about 17% of the country’s total, for three to five years. QatarEnergy CEO Saad Al Kaabi has said the first train of the North Field East expansion will be operational in 1H 2027.

Volumes and costs

Exports are back to near pre-war levels: Middle East crude exports, including loadings at Yanbu and Fujairah, reached 16.6 mn bbl / d in October against a pre-war average of 17 mn, according to Kpler data cited by Reuters. Crude through Hormuz, excluding Iran, averaged 10.3 mn bbl / d, against 13.5 mn before the war.

Getting them out costs six times more: Shipping costs about USD 30 a barrel, up from about USD 5. Saudi Arabia cut its December price for Arab Light to Asia by USD 2 a barrel as Brent fell more than 17% last week to around USD 97.