Good morning, folks. It’s a quiet morning on the regional climate industry landscape, with some updates coming in from Empower and EBRD. State-side, a climate change-fuelled intense hurricane season is literally dominating the headlines today as two superstorms batter the US coastline in close succession, putting climate change in the spotlight…

THE BIG CLIMATE STORY OUTSIDE THE REGION- Hurricane Milton dominates the headlines sparking a serious climate debate: Hurricane Milton has made landfall on the coast of Florida as a dangerous Category 3 storm before weakening to a Category 2 storm as it came ashore early this morning. Over the course of a mere 12 hours, the hurricane escalated from Category 1 to a Category 5 storm earlier this week as it swept over the Gulf of Mexico and sustained winds of 160 mph as of yesterday morning.

Take it from the meteorologists: NBC 6 South Florida meteorologist John Morales went viral this week after got choked up on-air while reporting on the hurricane’s rapid intensification. “With climate-driven extremes putting us in a place that we haven’t been before, it’s very difficult to stay cool, calm, and collected,” Morales told Mother Jones in an interview after the clip went viral.

Marine heat waves are like ‘steroids for hurricanes’: Ocean heat is increasingly recognized as a critical factor in storm intensity, with heat and water serving as fuel for the storm. This summer, Gulf of Mexico waters reached record-high temperatures, amplified by a recent marine heat wave. Man-made overheating is like “steroids for hurricanes,” chief meteorologist at Climate Central Bernadette Woods Plack told the Guardian. "Basically, when the water is warmer, storms can suck up way more of that moisture and that then falls as heavier rain … it makes it much more likely that we'll see the kind of rapid intensification that we saw, both with Helene and now with Milton, where storms get really, really big, really fast," NPR's Rachel Waldholz says.

Impacts of the storm are making headlines in the international press: Reuters | AP | Bloomberg | Washington Post | The New York Times | MSNBC | CNN | BBC | The Guardian | NPR | Axios | The Atlantic | El Pais

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Actis to finalize Gabal El Zeit acquisition by the end of 2024? Ongoing negotiations between the Egyptian government and UK-based private equity giant Actis to purchase the 580 MW Gabal El Zeit wind farm are expected to yield an agreement by the end of this year, unnamed government sources told Al Arabiya. Negotiations for the Zafarana project — which is now being split in two — remain ongoing, they added.

More details about the in-the-works acquisition have emerged: Actis will invest to extend the wind farm’s lifespan by an additional ten years, according to the sources. Negotiations in recent weeks have also reportedly revolved around the state’s desire to increase the value of the acquisition — which the IMF projected in March to be around USD 339 mn.

But this isn’t the first time we’ve heard about an impending stake sale: The Gabal El Zeit and Zafarana wind farms have been on Egypt’s privatization short list since the program was relaunched in February 2023. Actis had reportedly completed its due diligence and was lining up financing for its planned acquisition of the Gabal El Zeit project earlier this year — the IMF was expecting the sale of both wind farms to conclude before the current fiscal year rolled around.

#2-Iraq’s tie-up to the GCC interconnection power grid is set to be operational in December, Zawya reports, citing a statement from the Gulf Cooperation Council Interconnection Authority’s CEO Ahmed Al-Ebrahim. The announcement came after the authority signed an agreement with Iraq at the authority’s headquarters in Dammam yesterday to add it to the grid.

#3- China again turns to the WTO to challenge EV tariffs, this time against Turkey: China has initiated a trade dispute at the World Trade Organization (WTO) against Turkey, targeting its 40% tariffs and restrictive import conditions on Chinese EVs and hybrids, describing the measures as “discriminatory” and “protectionist,” Reuters reports.

Add it to the pile: This is the second time China has gone up to the WTO to dispute tariffs against its EVs this month – which are being hit left and right all over the world over allegations that China’s subsidies to the industry are illegally harming competition. Earlier this month, China requested the WTO to rule on Canada’s recent 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs. The US has also recently confirmed 100% tariffs on Chinese EVs and excluded Chinese-made components from EV subsidies. Last Friday, the EU also passed a vote to apply up to 45% tariffs on Chinese-made EVs for five years.

COP WATCH-

Major finance execs are giving COP29 a miss: The leaders of Bank of America, BlackRock, Standard Chartered, and Deutsche Bank might be skipping the upcoming COP29 summit in Baku next month, citing logistical challenges and limited avenues for networking, sources with knowledge of the matter told Financial Times. Some parties are reportedly casting the event as a more “technical” one not suitable for businesses, prioritizing COP30 in Brazil next year instead. COP29 is dubbed by its organizers as the Finance COP, with financing targets for the global energy transitions expected to be a major point of discussion among government negotiators.

THE SCORECARD-

#1- Renewables to power half of global electricity by 2030, but miss UN target, according to the recently released International Energy Agency report (pdf). The world is set to add over 5.5k GW of renewable energy capacity by 2030, falling short of the COP28 UN climate goal to triple capacity for emissions reduction. To hit the target, the world needs to upgrade its infrastructure, including implementing 25 mn km of grids and 1.5 GW of storage.

The breakdown: Solar PV will lead growth, contributing 80% of the increase, while wind energy is set to double its pace. 70 countries — representing 80% of global renewable power capacity — are on track to meet their 2030 targets. China is leading the charge, accounting for 60% of the global capacity expansion to 2030

The solar glut: Global solar manufacturing capacity looks to exceed 1.1 GW by 2024, doubling demand and causing oversupply, price drops, and negative margins for manufacturers. This has led to the cancellation of some 300 GW of polysilicon and 200 GW of wafer projects, worth an estimated USD 25 bn.

The story also got ink in Reuters.

#2- Global emissions are likely to hit their historical peak in 2024, setting the stage for the decline, a new report (pdf) by Norway-based environmental assessor DNV said. This would be primarily driven by a decline in the cost of solar panels and battery technology, whose prices are expected to drop further by 19% by 2030, boosting low-carbon power generation, the DNV report says. Chinese tech is also powering this global transition with their competitive and cheaper “new energy” exports dominating the market. China accounts for 58% of global solar installations and 63% of EV purchases, according to the report.

But climate goals are still out of reach: The transition to clean energy remains too slow to meet Paris Agreement targets mainly due to challenges facing decarbonization of “hard-to-electrify,” energy-intensive sectors, such as heavy industry, maritime, railway, and aviation. National security and economic concerns – including geopolitical conflicts, increased military spending, debt’s rising costs, and trade tariffs’ expansion, are also contributing to the slowing down of the targets, according to the report.

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Egypt will host Cairo Water Week from Sunday, 13 October to Thursday, 17 October in Cairo. The event will explore the connection between water and climate and their impact on resilience in communities and will focus on investment in crisis management and intervention, and early warning systems for floods and droughts to ensure equitable access to clean and safe water.

Egypt will host the World Urban Forum from Monday, 4 November to Friday, 8 November in Cairo. The forum, established by the UN and one of its largest non-legislative events, will center around the effect of rapid urbanization on communities, economies, climate change, and policies and will bring together government representatives, academics, business people, urban planners, and more.

South Africa will host the Critical Mineral Africa Summit from Wednesday, 6 November to Thursday, 7 November in Cape Town. The summit aims to attract critical minerals investment to the continent and will be held alongside African Energy Week. The summit will be held in partnership with the Southern African-German Chamber of Commerce Partners representing Germany’s increasing investments in southern Africa.

Azerbaijan will host the United Nations Climate Change Conference or Conference of theParties (COP29) from Monday, 11 November to Friday, 22 November in Baku. The annual conference brings together governments, world leaders, and other stakeholders to advance the Paris Agreement and negotiate ways to fight climate change. The United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change’s objective is to “stabilize greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system”.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.