MENA aims to boost renewables capacity over 4x by the end of the decade

MENA plans to increase its renewable capacity 4.5-fold to surpass 200 GW of installed capacity by 2030 — the highest growth factor compared to other regions globally, according to a new report (pdf) by the International Energy Agency (IEA). The region recorded an installed capacity of 50 GW in 2022, meaning that it plans to add around 156 GW by the end of the decade. The MENA region is currently responsible for less than 8% of global emissions from power generation and heat production.

Installations need to double: The MENA region must double its annual capacity additions in order to meet renewable energy targets, the report found. This requires expedited auction processes and regulatory frameworks supporting self-consumption and cost-reflective electricity tariffs.

Solar energy is the key: Solar PV is central to these ambitions and is expected to rise from 16.5 GW in 2022 to over 90 GW by 2030, the IEA states. Competitive auctions and economies

of scale have driven down costs, with recent bids in Abu Dhabi as low as USD 14 per MWh.

Despite these advancements, low prices may not fully account for all developer costs and may not be achievable in all countries due to varying conditions.

Which countries set the most ambitious targets? Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and Algeria are set to contribute the most additions in renewables capacities, representing two thirds of the 156 GW projected increase. Saudi Arabia has the largest ambitions, with plans to go from 1 GW of renewable energy capacity in 2022 to reach 59 GW by 2030. Egypt aims to surpass 37 GW by 2030., while Algeria is targeting 14 GW of solar PV and 5 GW of wind power.

UAE, Iraq, Tunisia, Kuwait, Morocco, and Lebanon account for 17% of the MENA region ambition, the IEA said. These nations are attempting to reduce their reliance on imported fuel, such as oil and coal, by utilizing renewable energy. Their combined target is to increase their renewable technology base 2.4x by the end of the decade.

While the rest have lower ambitions due to their access to fossil fuels: Libya, Qatar, Oman and Bahrain account for 9% of the region’s ambition as they produce their own gas to meet domestic power demand. Combined, they currently have less than 2 GW of renewable capacity installed, the report found. Long-term fossil fuel contracts, regulation issues, and a lack of cost-reflective tariffs are hindering further renewables growth, despite goals to increase their base capacity 4.6x by 2030 .

ICYMI- The world is falling short on achieving its goal to triple renewable energy output by 2030, missing the mark by nearly a third. Current efforts to scale up renewable energy capacity are projected to reach nearly 8 TW worldwide by 2030, 3 TW away from the pledge made by 116 states during COP28.