Five things to watch in today’s US midterm elections

Good morning and welcome to EnterpriseAM AI + Innovation. Looking for an election movie? Check out The Candidate for a dose of Robert Redford optimism mixed with 1970s malaise. Or The Manchurian Candidate for 1960s Cold War paranoia. Or, hell, just watch Election for laughs. Now, let’s get started.

Get your popcorn. Two years of polling, pivoting, primaries and a peculiar preoccupation with posteriors comes down to this. US voters will finally head to the polls today in a midterm election that’s likely to dramatically reshape President Trump’s final two years in office — and possibly complicate the future of AI in the MENA region.

Here are five things MENA AI watchers should pay close attention to as the results come in.

#1- Control of both chambers? Democrats are heavily favored to win the 435-seat House of Representatives, but only mildly favored to seize control of the 100-seat Senate. If they win a majority in both chambers, that will give the party broad authority to launch investigations into the Trump administration — including investigations they’ve already promised into possible quid pro quos for Gulf AI deals, which we reported on last week. Democrats are also hard at work mapping out an AI policy and safety agenda to push for if they win majorities, per Politico.

#2- Look at the margins. If Democrats win by larger margins, there will be increased pressure to focus on investigating the Trump administration and on passing big “messaging bills” that show where the Democratic Party stands, but have zero chance of becoming law. (Remember: US legislation must pass both chambers and be signed by the president to become law. And Trump has shown no interest in signing bills that only Democrats voted for.) That means there’s probably very little chance of Democrats passing meaningful legislation to increase oversight of AI development that Trump — who’s on the record opposing increased AI regulation — would be willing to sign.

#3- But also look at the rhetoric. Remember that some congressional Republicans have also expressed a lot of concern about the unchecked development of AI, so if there’s any blossoming of bipartisan cooperation in the next two years, this might be one area for it. Would Trump sign such a bill? It’s unlikely based on his past statements, but the president also likes to take credit for big accomplishments, so there’s a chance of bringing him around. Also remember that events may be in the driver’s seat. If there’s a major disaster — such as rogue AI agents causing significant damage online or even in the physical world — that will likely change everyone’s calculus and maybe even force government action.

#4- Not in my backyard. Voters in 10 states will consider ballot measures — issues that citizens vote on directly rather than handing off to their elected representatives — limiting the construction of local data centers. These are basically a temperature check on the US attitude toward the massive computing campuses, which are often noisy and can drive up neighbors’ electricity and water bills. Computing is not a totally fungible commodity, but the tougher it is to build data center capacity in the United States, the greater the likely interest among hyperscalers in building that capacity abroad.

#5- Voter sentiment on AI. People across the globe are worried about AI’s potential to steal their jobs, limit opportunities for their children, reduce human contact, and even undermine the purpose of being alive. Americans, who are living near the forefront of AI development, are also probably early on the backlash. Look at how US voters talk about AI in exit polls and in interviews and focus groups in the days following the election. If you hear a lot of angst, think about it as a bellwether for what’s to come elsewhere.

DATA POINT- Before the election, nearly three-quarters of Americans believed AI threatened US jobs, per a Reuters / Ipsos poll reported by The Hill. Nearly 60 percent of respondents said the Trump administration was not taking threats from AI seriously enough. — Joe

Now, let’s get to today’s Lede, which looks at the Trump administration’s possible push to make G42 a US company.