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Stagflation rewrites the hedge book as oil breaks old safe havens
Brent longs are at a six-year high, the USD is back in favor, and even classic havens are no longer…
GCC debt markets hit the brakes as geopolitical risk spikes
Heavy demand from Islamic banks is keeping sukuk spreads tighter than conventional bonds
A brief war calm sparks record bond rush
USD 65 bn priced in a day as issuers raced during a brief lull in war-driven volatility
IMF warns Middle East conflict could add 40 bps to global inflation, and some central banks are likely to pause monetary easing
This will happen if the current regional conflict drives oil prices up by 10% and holds them there for most…
US-Iran war and AI threats add pressure to global credit
Investors are gradually unwinding bullish positions in credit indexes and shifting to protective trades
A more nuanced look into the impact of the Strait of Hormuz’s closure on the GCC
Hormuz typically accounts for around 25% of global seaborne oil trade and some 20% of global LNG trade
“Sell America, Buy Asia” trade interrupted as oil and war risk reset the outlook
Asian stocks are down 6% this week, as oil and war risk force investors back toward USD assets
Private markets’ boom years might be over, now comes the reckoning
Inflows are slowing, withdrawals are mounting, and analysts caution that defaults could spike if AI disrupts corporate earnings
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