World Bank upgrades UAE’s growth forecast for the year to 4.8%

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: EGA eyes acquisition of Brazil’s Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio? + Revolut CEO moves residency to UAE

Good morning, lovely people, and happy hump day. We have another good news type of day as the World Bank follows in the IMF’s footsteps with an upgrade to its GDP growth forecast for the UAE this year to 4.8%.

Meanwhile, investment news continue to dominate this week, with news that UAE-backed climate funding vehicle Alterra committed USD 2 bn to Brookfield’s record USD 20 bn clean energy fund; and a Mubadala JV anchors Janus Henderson’s USD 125 mn MENA-focused fund.

ALSO- PureHealth just finalized its acquisition of Hellenic Healthcare Group, while IHC divests its stake in Reach Group.

WEATHER- Dubai will see a high of 38°C today, before cooling to an overnight low of 29°C. Meanwhile, in Abu Dhabi, the mercury peaks at 39°C, with an overnight low of 27°C.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- EGA eyes acquisition in Brazil: Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) is exploring a possible bid for Brazil’s Companhia Brasileira de Alumínio (CBA) and has hired Morgan Stanley as advisor, Reuters reports, citing people familiar with the matter. CBA — which is 69% owned by Votorantim Group — has a market cap of about USD 487 mn and operates across the full aluminium value chain, from bauxite mining to smelting and manufacturing. EGA did not confirm the bid when asked.

REMEMBER- EGA has been ramping up its global expansion after losing a concession agreement in Guinea earlier this year. The company is developing a USD 4 bn aluminium smelter in Oklahoma and is in the running to develop Ghana’s Nyinahin Hills bauxite deposit after signing an MoU in June. It has also reportedly tapped banks to arrange a potential IPO, which could value the company at USD 10-15 bn.

#2- Revolut CEO Nik Storonsky has reportedly moved his residency from the UK to the UAE, marking the latest in a string of high net-worth individuals exiting the European country for the UAE, Bloomberg reports, citing a filing by his family office, which shows his residency has been in effect for a year. This comes as the fintech and neobank plans to roll out services in the UAE after recently securing in-principle approval from the Central Bank of the UAE.

REMEMBER- The UAE is set to be the biggest beneficiary of a wealth exodus from the UK this year, with the UK set to see a historic net outflow of 16.5k high-net-worth individuals (HNWIs) — the largest ever recorded globally — and the UAE set to welcome some 9.8k m’naires.

#3- Sheikh Hamdan launches Dubai Founders HQ: Crown Prince of Dubai Hamdan bin Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum launched Dubai Founders HQ, a joint initiative by the Dubai Department of Economy and Tourism and Dubai Chamber of Digital Economy aimed at strengthening the emirate’s startup and SME landscape, according to Dubai Media Office.

On offer: The initiative combines a physical campus at One Central with a digital ecosystem connecting founders, investors, and corporates. It is backed by 25 public and private sector partners, and will provide sector-specific support, business setup, mentorship, and funding access.

DATA POINT-

The UAE has invested about AED 44 bn in its expanding space industry so far, Wam cites UAE Space Agency Chairman Ahmad Belhoul Al Falasi as saying. The country aims to rank among the world’s top 10 hubs for space companies by 2031.

PSAs-

#1- Jazeera Airways resumes flights to Abu Dhabi: Kuwait-based airline Jazeera Airways has resumed direct flights to Abu Dhabi with four weekly services — two each between Kuwait International Airport and Al Ain International and Zayed International airports, effective as of 2 October, Trade Arabia reports.

#2- Wizz Air returns to UAE next month: Budget airline Wizz Air has resumed routes from Abu Dhabi to Larnaca, Cyprus and Sofia, Bulgaria starting November, The National reports. Flights to both destinations will be operated by Wizz Air Hungary.

REMEMBER- The airline called it quits in Abu Dhabi: Wizz Air initially pulled out of Abu Dhabi earlier this year, with initial plans to have phased out its operations by 1 September, as it reckoned with exorbitant costs, engine issues, and unfavorable weather in the Emirati capital.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- Adnoc Group and its six listed subsidiaries are convening for the inaugural AdnocInvestor Majlis, bringing together investors and leadership to outline growth ambitions across the group’s full value chain. The event will offer investors direct insight into the company’s long-term strategy as it looks to strengthen its capital market presence.

#2- Quantum Maritime Conference will take place today and tomorrow in Mussafah, Abu Dhabi. The conference convenes maritime executives, policymakers, and technology specialists to examine digital transformation in shipping, port automation, and sustainable fleet management, with sessions dedicated to decarbonization, cybersecurity, and AI-led operational efficiency in maritime logistics.

#2- The Abu Dhabi-London Business Connect event will take place today, followed by the Abu Dhabi Investment Forum on Thursday, in London. The Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce and Industry, ADGM, and Abu Dhabi Investment Office are holding twin investment forums, convening senior representatives from the government and the private sector to spotlight Abu Dhabi’s investment landscape, explore partnerships with UK counterparts, and support local businesses seeking to scale in new markets.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

#1- The Family Office Summit will take place tomorrow at Park Hyatt in Dubai. The event brings together family office executives, private capital investors, and wealth management professionals for panels and roundtable discussions focusing on the upcoming USD 1 tn generational wealth transfer.

#2- The European Arab Medical Congress is also taking place tomorrow and running until Saturday at the Abu Dhabi Energy Center. The congress convenes clinicians, researchers, and policymakers from around the world to discuss neurohabilitation, mental health, and patient-centered care. The event aims to develop real world solutions and strategies to strengthen rehabilitation med. and patient-centered approaches.

#3- The IUCN World Conservation Congress will also kick off tomorrow and run until Wednesday, 15 October in Abu Dhabi. The congress gathers government officials, academics, and members of the civil society to discuss the challenges facing sustainability and nature conservation, as well as the policy decisions influencing the conservation agenda. The event will be divided into three components — a forum, exhibition, and a members’ assembly to address how businesses should integrate sustainability into their strategies.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

It’s a mixed bag of news in the international business press this morning, with more noise — and concerns — around the future of AI and surging investments in the sector, as well as updates on trade and tariffs, and the final push for a ceasefire between Gaza and Israel in Egypt.

#1- Concerns mount over the risks of an AI bubble amid spending spree from OpenAI, Nvidia: The bns of USD invested in AI so far, marked by OpenAI topping USD 1 tn in commitments and Nvidia’s spending spree, are based on a “circular,” “interconnected” web of business transactions involving only a handful of firms that cast doubt over the sector and its ability to sustain itself, Bloomberg writes in this morning’s big read. Meanwhile, the Financial Times similarly spotlights OpenAI’s recent transactions, including ones with Oracle, AMD, and Nvidia, highlighting the “fake it till you make it” ethos that has powered the sector so far, and that could blow up if OpenAI isn’t able to honor its funding commitments.

#2- Over in the world of trade, the EU is proposing a 50% tariff on steel imports to match the US’ tariff, but it could hit the UK — the biggest importer of European steel — the hardest. Meanwhile, the World Trade Organization has slashed its growth forecast for global trade next year to 0.5%, down significantly from 1.8% earlier, as the impacts of Trump's tariffs filter through. (Politico | Guardian | BBC)

ALSO GETTING ATTENTION- Tesla launched new affordable models, including a cheaper model Y SUV and sedan, as it looks to revive sales and counter the effects of rising competition in Europe and China. (Reuters | Financial Times | Bloomberg)

CLOSER TO HOME- Officials from Israel, Qatar, and the US, including US special envoy Steve Witkoff and Trump’s son-in-law Jared Kushner, are heading to Egypt for the Israel-Hamas peace talks, which are now on their third day. Trump says there’s a “real chance” for an agreement, as officials say the focus is on reaching an agreement on the ceasefire and hostage release, but sticking points around the governance of Gaza and the complete disarmament of Hamas — all part of a later phase — have yet to be addressed. (Bloomberg | Guardian)

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World Bank upgrades UAE’s GDP growth forecast to 4.8% in 2025

The World Bank upgraded its GDP growth forecast for the UAE to 4.8% in 2025, up 0.2 percentage points from its previous outlook in April, the international financial organization said in its latest Middle East, North Africa, Afghanistan, and Pakistan (MENAAP) Economic Update report (pdf). It also upgraded the forecast to 5% in 2026, up 0.1 percentage point from its previous forecast, while further ahead, our economy is expected to accelerate further to 5.1% in 2027.

Driving growth: Strong economic activity across sectors, with significant contributions from the financial services, constructions, transport, and real estate sectors, is behind the upgrade, the World Bank said, adding that it expects stable growth rates over the medium term. This is helped further by increased private investment, stronger exports, and growing consumption, the report said.

ALSO- Increased oil production has been cited by many others as a reason for stronger economic growth next year. Opec+ has been unwinding earlier cuts to production, and had hiked the UAE’s quota.

The World Bank’s upgrade follows the IMF’s recent upgrade of its forecast for the UAE’s growth to 4.8%, up from its 4% forecast in April. Both forecasts are in line with the Central Bank of the UAE’s (CBUAE) revised forecast of 4.9% in 2025. Meanwhile, Standard Chartered sees the economy expanding by 5% in 2025, while Fitch Solutions’ BMI forecasts 4.3% growth.

Inflation in the UAE is expected to accelerate to 2.1% this year, up 0.3 percentage points y-o-y, before easing to 2% in 2026, according to the report. The World Bank also sees our fiscal surplus narrowing by 0.4 percentage point y-o-y to 4.4% in 2025, before widening to 4.9% next year. Meanwhile, the current account surplus is expected to narrow by 0.7 percentage points to 7.1% this year, before rebounding to 7.7% in 2026.

The GCC region at large is expected to expand at 3.5% this year, up 0.3 percentage points from the World Bank’s last forecast, and significantly higher than the 2.2% growth achieved in 2024, according to the report. This uptick is mainly driven by the phasing out of OPEC+ production cuts, and by robust expansion in non-oil sectors.

Alterra pours USD 2 bn into Brookfield’s record USD 20 bn clean energy fund

UAE-backed climate fund Alterra has poured USD 2 bn into Canada’s Brookfield Asset Management’s USD 20 bn energy transition fund, Brookfield Global Transition Fund II (BGTF II) — the biggest private fund of its kind globally, according to a press release.

The fund will invest in energy transition assets, backing longer-term technologies such as nuclear energy and carbon capture storage, the Financial Times reports.

Who else pitched in? The fund closed with support from both existing and new investors. Brookfield Corporation, the group’s parent company, contributed about a quarter of the total capital, a source told the FT, while Norway’s sovereign wealth fund Norges Bank Investment Management added USD 1.5 bn. Singapore’s Temasek Holdings contributed USD 3.5 bn in co-investments, bringing total capital raised across its clean energy portfolio to about USD 23.5 bn. Brookfield’s first energy transition fund raised USD 15 bn.

Where the money’s flowing: More than USD 5 bn has already been deployed. Investments include Brookfield’s USD 6.6 bn acquisition of French renewables developer Neoen, the takeover of US energy firm Geronimo Power, and a major stake in Evren, a joint venture in India between Brookfield and Axis Energy Ventures focused on wind, solar, and storage projects, according to a press release.

Alterra and Brookfield go way back: The UAE fund committed USD 100 mn in Evren earlier this year and another USD 100 mn to back Neoen. Alterra previously committed up to USD 1 bn to Brookfield's USD 2.4 bn Catalytic Transition Fund in September 2024.

ICYMI- Alterra had been reportedly struggling deploy capital amid a shortage of viable clean energy projects. But that’s changing — it also committed EUR 50 mn this year to Italy’s Absolute Energy through its Alterra Acceleration Fund. The fund, unveiled during COP28, is set to mobilize USD 250 bn in green investments by 2030.

Mubadala backs Janus Henderson’s USD 125.5 mn Mena private credit fund

Asset manager Janus Henderson raised USD 125.5 mn in the first close of its MENA Private Credit Fund IV, according to a press release. The fund is targeting a final close of USD 300 mn by mid-2026, with a second close due by end-2025. A Mubadala-backed JV and Saudi players anchored the first close.

REFRESHER- MENA Private Credit Fund IV? Earlier this week, we reported that Mubadala and the Saudi Industrial Development Fund partnered with Janus Henderson on a USD 125 mn GCC-focused, shariah-compliant private credit fund, designed to lend to and invest in SMEs across the region.

Who’s in: The shariah-compliant vehicle is backed by Abu Dhabi Catalyst Partners — a joint venture between Mubadala Capital and Alpha Wave Global — alongside Saudi Arabia’s SIDF Investment Company and Saudi Venture Capital Company. It also attracted interest from regional institutions and family offices, the statement said.

The bigger picture: The fund aims to help bridge a USD 250 bn SME financing gap across MENA, where traditional banks remain cautious lenders. It will offer non-bank, flexible financing for growth, refinancing, recapitalizations, and acquisitions, targeting 10-12 transactions worth USD 15-50 mn each over its eight-year term.

This marks Janus Henderson’s third Islamic finance vehicle under its ADGM-based Emerging Markets Private Investments arm, as the firm deepens its presence in the region’s growing alternative finance market.

PureHealth completes 60% acquisition of Hellenic Healthcare Group

PureHealth completes 60% acquisition of Greek-Cypriot HHG: Abu Dhabi healthcare group PureHealth finalized its acquisition of a 60% equity stake in Greek-Cypriot hospital group Hellenic Healthcare Group (HHG), after securing regulatory clearance under the EU Foreign Subsidies Regulation, according to an ADX disclosure (pdf). The transaction value was not disclosed.

REMEMBER- PureHealth signed a definitive agreement in January to acquire the stake in the largest hospital operator in Greece and Cyprus — then valued at USD 2.3 bn — from CVC Capital Partners VI and HHG founder Dimitrios Spyridis. Following the transaction, CVC retains a 35% share and Spyridis holds 5%, leaving PureHealth with a controlling interest in HHG through a wholly owned subsidiary.

Financial impact soon to show: HHG’s financials have been consolidated into PureHealth’s accounts starting 1 October 2025. The takeover falls within PureHealth’s goal to diversify revenues streams and have over half of its revenues coming from outside the GCC, Group CEO at PureHealth Shaista Asif previously said.

The move extends PureHealth’s global healthcare M&A spree: The acquisition adds to the group’s USD 1.2 bn purchase of the UK’s Circle Health Group, and its acquisition of a USD 1.8 bn stake in US-based Ardent Health Services. Closer to home, PureHealth holds a 25% stake in Sheikh Shakhbout Medical City for USD 150 mn and was previously linked to a potential takeover of NMC Healthcare in the UAE, which it reportedly dropped over valuation differences.

IN OTHER M&A NEWS-

IHC finalizes exit from Reach Group: Abu Dhabi’s International Holding Company (IHC) has divested its entire 55% stake in Emirati recruitment company Reach Group, according to an ADX disclosure (pdf). IHC acquired its stake in Reach Group back in 2023 for AED 315 mn as it looked to scale local and international investments, and increase its capital share in the employment sector.

One out, one in: IHC recently agreed to acquire a 41.2% stake in Mumbai-listed, mortgage-focused Sammaan Capital for USD 1 bn, pending regulatory approval. The firm is looking to invest heavily in India, earmarking USD 110 bn in investments for the country over the next five years.

Sharjah Islamic Bank’s 3Q 2025 net income jumps 22.7% y-o-y on higher fees, commissions

Sharjah Islamic Bank (SIB) reported a 22.7% y-o-y increase in net income to AED 408 mn in 3Q 2025, according to its financials (pdf). Total operating income for the quarter saw a 16.8% increase to reach AED 683.3 mn as income from net fees and commissions rose by 90.2% y-o-y.

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On a 9M basis: Net income climbed 24% y-o-y to AED 1.1 bn during the first nine months of the year, with a robust uptick in nonprofit income thanks to more diversified revenue streams driving the results, according to a separate earnings release (pdf). Total operating income for the period rose 14.3% y-o-y to AED 1.8 bn, supported by higher fees, commission, and other income, which surged 36.5% y-o-y to AED 690.4 mn.

Gulf heirs steer USD 1 tn wealth transfer toward hedge funds, crypto

A new generation of Gulf heirs is reshaping family office portfolios, steering away from real estate and investments in their own businesses and into hedge funds, crypto, and private credit, Bloomberg reports. The region’s expected USD 1 tn intergenerational wealth transfer is driving a surge in crypto investments among Emirati families, analysts say, with allocations to tokenized funds and digital assets rising. Still, portfolios of riskier assets remain more conservative than in the West, with older generations’ preference for liquidity and property tempering the new appetite for risk.

REMEMBER- Global surveys by Goldman Sachs and Citi Wealth point to the same duality. Family offices are taking on more risk — one-third now hold crypto and nearly half boosted exposure to public and private equity — yet remain cautious overall.

The UAE’s two financial hubs are fast becoming the region’s hedge fund centers, with Dubai International Financial Center now hosting over 70 firms and Abu Dhabi home to heavyweights like Brevan Howard and Marshall Wace. Their local presence is helping connect managers directly with allocators, as family offices increasingly conduct their own due diligence instead of relying on banks, said Nettlestone Capital’s Edwin Lawrence.

China Southern Glass to open AED 300 mn Kezad facility + Emirates Float Glass to double capacity

MANUFACTURING-

#1- China Southern Glass to build glass plant in Kezad: China Southern Glass (CSG) will set up an AED 300 mn glass manufacturing plant in Khalifa Economic Zones Abu Dhabi (Kezad), AD Ports’ subsidiary Kezad Group said in a press release. The facility will be CSG’s first overseas manufacturing facility and comes as the UAE looks to reduce its reliance on imports and boost its local manufacturing chain.

The capacity: The 95k sqm facility, slated to be operational in late 2026, will be located in the Musaffah area, with an annual production capacity of over 5 mn sqm of coated, laminated, and insulating glass. Production will serve infrastructure and construction projects in local UAE markets, as well as the Gulf area, the US, Africa, and Europe.

#2- EFG doubles manufacturing capacity with second production line: DFM-listed investments company Dubai Investments’ subsidiary Emirates Float Glass (EFG) is doubling its float glass manufacturing capacity by adding a second float line, according to a DFM disclosure (pdf). The firm will simultaneously upgrade its first production line, Dubai Investments Industrial Platform CEO Abdulaziz Al Serkal told CNBC Arabia (watch, runtime: 1:11).

The details: The new line will increase daily capacity to 1.2k tons, up from 600 tons, and introduce ultra-clear, low-iron glass to the region, the statement read. It will be up and running between the end of this year and the start of 2026, with Horn Glass Industries of Germany and a local civil works contractor helping execute the project. The firm is also set to sign an AED 1 bn financing agreement with a local lender for the project, Al Serkal said.

REAL ESTATE-

Dubai-based developer Omniyat is launching Lumena Alta, a 73-story luxury commercial tower on Sheikh Zayed Road with a gross development value of over AED 5 bn, according to a press release. Lumena Alta will house shell-and-core office spaces with terraces and gardens, a five-star lifestyle hotel with a sky pool, and directly connect to the upcoming Dubai Metro Gold Line. The development, located at the intersection of Business Bay and Downtown Dubai, will feature over 720k sq ft of office space and is scheduled for completion in 2030.

REMEMBER- The developer had previously tapped debt markets for AED 400 mn in September, after securing a USD 100 mn private loan from Japan’s Nomura in February to support the development of one of its ultra-luxury projects.

CRYPTO-

#1- BitGo MENA secures Vara broker-dealer license: Digital asset infrastructure firm BitGo MENA has received a broker-dealer license from the Dubai Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (Vara), allowing it to offer regulated digital asset trading and intermediation services to regional institutional clients, according to a press release. It had secured preliminary approval earlier this year.

#2- Vara cracks down on 19 unlicensed crypto firms: Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (Vara) fined 19 companies and issued cease-and-desist orders for offering crypto services without authorization, Cointelegraph reports. Penalties ranged from AED 100k-600k, with all entities ordered to immediately stop operations and marketing activities.

REMEMBER-Vara introduced stricter marketing and licensing rules in 2024, requiring prior approval and disclaimers on promotional materials. The regulator conducted a similar sweep last October, when it sanctioned seven unlicensed crypto firms for breaching its rules.

EDUCATION-

Arada awards AED 128 mn contract to build int’l school in Aljada: Sharjah-based developer Arada awarded an AED 128 mn construction contract to Al Rehab Arab Contracting to build the Raffles World Academy in its AED 35 bn Aljada megaproject, according to a press release. Dubai-based education provider Innoventures Educational is also partnering on the project, which marks its first school in Sharjah.

More on the academy: Built over 480k sq ft in Aljada, the K-12 international school is set to open for the academic year starting in 2026. It will offer IB and American curricula, and accommodate up to 2k students.

Full steam ahead on Aljada: Just last month, Arada tapped Dubai-based United Engineering Construction for an AED 2.2 bn contract to build Madar Mall in Aljada, and awarded an AED 604 mn contract to start building the project’s business district in March. The project is set to wrap up in 2030, with 30% of Aljada’s targeted 25k homes now completed, the statement read.

STARTUPS-

EDB launches financing tools for startups and SMEs: Emirates Development Bank (EDB) is rolling out AED 500 mn in financing solutions and support initiatives for startups and MSMEs across the UAE in an initial rollout as part of a national campaign, state news agency Wam reports. Founders will be able to set up business accounts with the lender, secure financing without providing collateral, and access EBD’s network of contacts.

GAMING-

Yolo Group secures UAE vendor licenses: Estonia-based gaming group Yolo Group subsidiaries Hub88 Holdings and Live Online Gaming Services (Live88) received gaming-related vendor licenses from the General Commercial Gaming Regulatory Authority (GCGRA), according to a press release. The approval makes Live88 the UAE’s first licensed live online casino, and allows Yolo to supply B2B iGaming content to the UAE.

REMEMBER- The UAE became the first regulated gaming market in the GCC after issuing its national gaming framework last year. The GCGRA has since rolled out key licenses, including the country’s first lottery license to The Game, vendor approvals for TCSJohnHuxley and Australia’s Aristocrat, and a commercial gaming license for Wynn Resorts, which is set to be the first integrated gaming resort in the MENA region.

PAYMENTS-

Astra Tech rebrands PayBy to botim money: Abu Dhabi’s Astra Tech rebranded its fintech arm PayBy as botim money, consolidating its financial services under a single brand, Khaleej Times reports. The Central Bank of the UAE-licensed platform will continue offering local and international transfers, prepaid cards, lending products, and investment options including National Bonds and gold.

…With an upgrade for business users: Astra Tech also launched botim money for Business, a B2B platform providing merchant payment infrastructure, salary disbursement tools, and Wage Protection System (WPS) services.

ICYMI- The rebrand caps a series of fintech rollouts for botim, which this year added O Gold’s in-app gold trading, partnered with the Commercial Bank of Ethiopia on digital remittances, and became the first fintech certified to issue Jaywan cards under the UAE’s national payment scheme. The platform has also expanded features such as AI verification, SME payroll, National Bonds investments, and send now, pay later remittances.

Emerging market rally hits 15-year high as weaker USD fuels global shift

Emerging market assets are surging at their fastest pace since 2009 as investors flock to developing economies, drawn by a weaker USD, high real yields, and attractive valuations, the Financial Times reported yesterday.

An MSCI benchmark of emerging-market equities climbed 28% YTD — its biggest gain over the period in over 15 years — while a JPMorgan index tracking local-currency government bonds is up 16%. Both indices are rebounding from what analysts have called a “lost decade” of underperformance against US markets. Meanwhile, MSCI’s developed-market stocks index is up less than 17% this year, the salmon-colored paper said.

The turnaround follows years of stagnation: Emerging market equities rose just 9% in total between 2010 and 2024, trailing one of the strongest US bull runs in history. “After 15 years of very mediocre performance, the stars are finally aligning and the most important variable there is the USD,” Ian Simmons, senior portfolio manager at Fiera Capital, told the FT, citing the USD’s slide under President Trump’s administration and the Federal Reserve’s shift toward rate cuts.

A softer USD has eased financial pressures on developing economies by lowering the costs of servicing USD-denominated debt, while falling US yields have spurred renewed appetite for local-currency bonds offering high inflation-adjusted returns. Roughly half of this year’s gains in JPMorgan’s EM bond index stem from FX moves, according to Damien Buchet, chief investment officer of Principal Finisterre.

The rally has been strongest in Brazil, Mexico, Colombia, Hungary, and South Africa, where high real rates have kept carry trades appealing, Bloomberg reports. “You can have these multi-year virtuous circles within emerging markets where capital inflows drive improving fundamentals, which will bring more capital inflows,” said Kenneth Orchard, head of international fixed income at T. Rowe Price. Meanwhile, countries with fragile finances — think Turkey -- continue to maintain double-digit policy rates to draw capital.

Governments are tapping into investor demand: Local-currency bond issuance across 17 major emerging markets outside China has hit a record USD 286 bn YTD, S&P Global Ratings’ head of emerging markets credit research Zahabia Gupta told the FT.

The rally has also spilled into equities tied to the global AI boom, with South Korea’s Kospi and Taiwan’s Taiex both reaching record highs as investors pile into chipmakers and hardware suppliers for data centers. Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company alone now represents about 11% of the MSCI EM Index — more than the combined weighting of several countrie, according to the FT.

Despite the surge, EM assets remain cheap. The MSCI EM Index trades at about 14x forward earnings, compared with 23x for the S&P 500, according to William Blair portfolio manager Vivian Lin Thurston. That valuation gap has fueled much of this year’s “re-rating” in emerging markets, as investors calibrate expectations.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are trading mixed this morning, with the Shanghai Composite up 0.5%, Japan’s Nikkei almost unchanged, and Hong Kong's Hang Seng inching down 0.8%. Meanwhile, Wall Street futures are slightly inching up, after the S&P ended a 7-day streak of gains.

ADX	10,082	+0.2% (YTD: +7.0%)
DFM	5,940	+0.5% (YTD: +15.1%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	4,833	+0.4% (YTD: +16.1%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	3.9% o/n	3.9% 1 yr
Tadawul	11,583	-0.2% (YTD: -3.7%)
EGX30	37,097	+0.01% (YTD: +24.7%)
S&P 500	6,715	-0.4% (YTD: +14.2%)
FTSE 100	9,484	+0.1% (YTD: +16.0%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,614	+0.3% (YTD: +14.7%)
Brent crude	USD 65.74	0.0%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.52	+0.1%
Gold	USD 4,008	0.0%
BTC	USD 121,943	-2.5% (YTD: +30.4%)
Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	AED 3.72	-1.9% (YTD: +6.8%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	150.75	-0.1% (YTD: +7.7%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	17.24	+5.3% (YTD: -3.9%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The DFM rose 0.5% yesterday on turnover of AED 429.6 mn. The index is up 15.1% YTD.

In the green: Commercial Bank of Dubai (+5.2%), Emirates Central Cooling Systems Corporation (+3.1%) and Emirates NBD (+2.6%).

In the red: National Central Cooling Co. (-2.6%), Taaleem Holdings (-2.4%) and Ekktitab Holding Company (-1.6%).

Over on the ADX, the index rose 0.2% on turnover of AED 1.2 bn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was up 0.4%.

CALENDAR

OCTOBER

3-16 October (Friday-Thursday): Dubai Home Festival.

6-8 October (Monday-Wednesday): AccessAbilities Expo, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai

7-9 October (Tuesday-Thursday): The International Symposium on the System of Radiological Protection, the Ritz-Carlton Abu Dhabi, Grand Canal.

8 October (Wednesday): The Abu Dhabi–London Business Connect, London.

9 October (Thursday): The Abu Dhabi Investment Forum (ADIF), London.

8-9 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Quantum Maritime Conference, Mussafah, Abu Dhabi

9 October (Thursday): Family Office Summit, Park Hyatt, Dubai.

9-11 October (Thursday-Saturday): European Arab Medical Congress (EAMC), Abu Dhabi Energy Center, Abu Dhabi.

9-15 October (Thursday-Wednesday): IUCN World Conservation Congress, Abu Dhabi.

12-15 October (Sunday-Wednesday): Expand North Star, Dubai Harbor.

13-17 October (Monday-Thursday): GITEX Global, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai

14-16 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Global Future Councils, Dubai.

14 October (Tuesday): Dubai Safari Park, Dubai

15 October (Wednesday): Alec Holding’s shares to begin trading on the DFM.

15-18 October (Wednesday-Saturday): Middle East Electric Vehicle Show, Expo Center Sharjah.

15-18 October (Wednesday-Saturday): The Future Mobility Expo and Conference, Expo Center Sharjah.

15-18 October (Wednesday-Saturday): Evolve Future Mobility Show, Expo Center Sharjah.

21-22 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): HR Summit and Expo, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai

21-23 October (Tuesday-Thursday): International Family Med. Conference and Exhibition, Dubai World Trade Center.

21-23 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Annual Radiology Meeting (ARM), Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai

21-23 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Healthcare Future Summit, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai

22 October (Wednesday): Reuters NEXT Gulf Summit, The St. Regis Saadiyat Island Resort, Abu Dhabi.

22-23 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Alternative Investment Summit, Jumeirah Emirates Towers, Dubai.

22-24 October (Wednesday-Friday): World Investment Conference, Expo Center Sharjah.

23 October (Thursday): S&P Global’s annual Islamic Finance Conference, DIFC Atrium, Dubai.

27 October (Monday): The UAE Africa Tourism Investment Summit, Dubai.

27-29 October (Monday-Wednesday): Future Hospitality Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

27-29 October (Monday-Wednesday): Asia Pacific Cities Summit, Dubai Exhibition Center.

28-29 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

29 October (Wednesday): The Brand Residences Forum, Dubai.

NOVEMBER

1-2 November (Saturday-Sunday): Women's Empowerment Convention (WE Convention), Atlantis The Royal, Dubai.

4-6 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Annual government meetings, Abu Dhabi.

4-6 November (Tuesday-Thursday): ARABAL International Aluminum Conference, Dubai

4-9 November (Tuesday-Saturday): Dubai Design Week, Dubai.

10-15 November (Monday-Saturday): SASC organizes Abu Dhabi Autonomous Week, Abu Dhabi.

10-15 November (Monday-Saturday): RoboCup Asia-Pacific (RCAP), Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

10 November (Monday): SASC organizes The Abu Dhabi Autonomous Summit, Abu Dhabi

11-17 November (Tuesday-Monday): International Council of Museums (ICOM) General Conference, Dubai.

12 November (Wednesday): Dubai Business Forum, Cipriani South Street, New York City.

12-17 November (Wednesday-Monday): RoboCup Asia-Pacific, Khalifa University, Abu Dhabi.

13-15 November (Thursday-Saturday): International Financial Markets (ICA) Conference and Exhibition, Conrad Dubai.

15-17 November (Saturday-Monday): Myplant & Garden Middle East Green Expo, Dubai Exhibition Center, Expo City.

17-21 November (Monday-Friday): Dubai Airshow, Al Maktoum International Airport, Dubai.

18-19 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Dubai Future Forum, Museum of the Future, Dubai.

19-20 November (Wednesday-Thursday): Investment and Business Summit, Al Hamra International Exhibition and Convention Center, Ras Al Khaimah

19-23 November (Tuesday-Sunday): Abu Dhabi Art, Manarat Al Saadiyat, Abu Dhabi

24-27 November (Monday-Thursday): Big 5 Global Exhibition, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai

26-27 November (Wednesday-Thursday): DATE (Digital Acceleration and Transformation Expo), Dubai

DECEMBER

1-3 December (Monday-Wednesday): Eid Al Etihad (UAE National Day).

2-5 December (Tuesday-Friday): Sotheby’s Abu Dhabi Collectors’ Week, Abu Dhabi.

1-5 December (Monday-Friday): The World Congress of Neurosurgery, Dubai World Trade Center.

7-14 December (Sunday-Sunday): Asian Youth Para Games, APC headquarters, Dubai.

8 December (Monday): DeFi Technologies Insights Global Symposium, Emirates Palace, Abu Dhabi.

8-9 December (Monday-Tuesday): BTC MENA Conference, Adnec, Abu Dhabi.

8-9 December (Monday-Tuesday): Global AI Show, Abu Dhabi.

8-10 December (Monday-Wednesday): The Bridge Summit, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

8-11 December (Monday-Thursday): Abu Dhabi Finance Week, Al Maryah Island.

9-10 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

9-11 December (Tuesday-Thursday): Automechanika Dubai Trade Show, Dubai World Trade Center.

13-15 December (Saturday-Monday): Mobile Developers Week, Abu Dhabi.

18-23 December (Thursday-Tuesday): Games of the Future, Adnec, Abu Dhabi.

29-30 December (Monday-Tuesday): World Sports Summit, Dubai.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2025:

e& will complete Adnoc’s private 5G network
Executive Committee Meeting (EXCOM) conference of the World Smart Sustainable Cities Organisation (WeGO)

Signposted to happen sometime in 2H 2025:

Closing of XRG's acquisition of Covestro

JANUARY 2026

1 January: Client asset regime changes in Dubai International Financial Center take effect.

9-11 January (Friday-Sunday): 1 Bn Followers Summit, UAE.

13-15 January (Tuesday-Thursday): FESPA Middle East, Dubai Exhibition Center, Dubai

28-29 January (Wednesday-Thursday): IBA Arbitration Day Conference, Abu Dhabi.

28-30 January (Wednesday-Friday): World Customs Organization Technology Conference, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

FEBRUARY 2026

3-5 February (Tuesday-Thursday): The World Governments Summit.

12-15 February (Thursday-Sunday): The Society for Incentive Travel Excellence Global Conference, Abu Dhabi.

9-13 February (Monday-Friday): The World Health Expo (WHX), Dubai.

MARCH 2026

31 March - 2 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Arab Media Summit, Dubai.

26-28 March (Thursday-Saturday): Social Capital Conference, Dubai.

APRIL 2026

13-15 April (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

JUNE 2026

15 June-15 September (Monday-Thursday): Dubai Mallathon, Dubai.

JULY 2026

31 July (Friday): Large businesses achieving annual revenues equal to or above AED 50 mn must appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.

Signposted to happen in 2026:

13-15 April ( Monday-Wednesday) : The International Glass Manufacturing Show, Dubai.
14-16 April: (Tuesday-Thursday): the International Property Show, Sheikh Zayed Rd, Dubai.
11-13 May (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center.
The UAE to host the Arab Competition Forum
Dubai to host the Arab Actuarial Conference
United Nations Water Conference
Dubai Future Finance Week
Investopia Global Talks, Tashkent

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1 January: Deadline for large businesses to implement e-invoicing.
1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project.
31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation
31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.
1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing.
1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing.
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime between 2027 and 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai.
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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