Good morning, friends, and happy early Eid Al Fitr. We’re still waiting for confirmation tonight that Ramadan ends today, but the country is setting off for the Eid break anyway as of tomorrow for a long weekend.
**PROGRAMMING NOTE- EnterpriseAM UAE will also be off for Eid Al Fitr starting tomorrow, and will be back in your inboxes at the usual time on Monday, 23 March.
Eid celebrations will likely not have the same flavor as every year. Several public attractions are still closed down, and you likely won’t be seeing prayer mats filling up the streets outside of mosques for Salat El Eid, with instructions given to ensure prayers happen only inside mosques for safety reasons.
The country is continuing to face attacks, with loud interceptions heard in Dubai late last night and a public safety alert sent to our phones. Falling shrapnel from a ballistic missile interception in Abu Dhabi led to another civilian fatality yesterday morning, and tankers are being hit off the coast of the UAE. The tanker, hit some 23 nautical miles east of Fujairah while anchored, resulted in minor structural damage, but no injuries. An Iranian projectile hit near Australia’s Al Minhad Air Base earlier today, resulting in a small fire but no injuries.
Plus: Dubai International Airport continued to face severe operational bottlenecks following strikes, the Financial Times reports. After our airspace was temporarily shuttered Tuesday morning following an attack on a fuel tank earlier on Monday, and more reported attacks later in the night, flights restarted, though the airport continued to grapple with a backlog of cancellations and severe delays.
Daily port loadings have also been taking a hit: Loadings in Fujairah plummeted by 66% during the week of 9 March, falling significantly from the 1.9 mn bbl / d seen a week prior, Lloyd’s List reports, citing data by market analytics firm Vortexa.
As we head into the long weekend, we look at if the Gulf might respond — as well as how and when — to Iran’s attacks in the coming weeks, including reports of the UAE offering up potential support of the US in securing the Strait of Hormuz.
AND- As the fallout from data center disruptions following the attacks on AWS’ data centers earlier in the month seemingly settles, we ask how foreign investors might approach investments in data centers in the region now — and what they might be looking for from governments in our neck of the woods.
Happening today
It’s interest rate day: The Fed will make its interest rate announcement later today — and tomorrow is equally big a day, with the ECB, Bank of England, and Bank of Japan doing the same. Central banks in China, Canada, Australia, Brazil, Sweden, and Switzerland are also meeting this week to set rates.
The Fed is widely expected to keep rates unchanged as it takes stock of the economic fallout from the war. Policy decisions moving forward might prove tricky. The war’s pressure on oil prices threatens to spike inflation, while the US labor market is also looking weak, so the case for looser vs. tighter economic policy might be much less clear than before.
WEATHER- Temperatures are thankfully cooling slightly from their earlier highs, rising to a high of 29°C in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, and reaching a low of 20°C overnight.
Watch this space
LOGISTICS — Dubai + Oman activate green corridor to bypass logistics bottlenecks: Dubai and Oman Customs have introduced a temporary joint corridor to expedite procedures for sea and air cargo, according to a statement (pdf). Shipments originally bound for Dubai’s Jebel Ali Port or Dubai International Airport will be rerouted through Omani ports and airports, before being transported via bonded trucks through the Hatta-Al Wajajah border crossing.
A joint push to safeguard GCC supply chains: Oman is leveraging its geography — located outside of Hormuz — to ensure that disrupted sea and air flows do not result in stranded cargo or empty shelves. For operators, this means diverted goods won’t face the standard double-handling or administrative delays of a second country’s customs. Instead, Omani authorities will verify seals and transit declarations to facilitate an easy move to Dubai.
What’s next? We can expect a surge in bonded trucking demand along the Oman-UAE axis. While the corridor is temporary, how long it stays operational will likely depend on how long the current regional disruptions persist.
And more rerouting through Oman… Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) will reroute its aluminum exports and raw materials through Oman’s port of Sohar in the coming days to bypass the Strait of Hormuz, three sources told Reuters. Alumina feedstock will then be transported by truck to either Dubai or Abu Dhabi for smelting.
IN CONTEXT- Aluminum prices hit a four-year high at USD 3.5k per metric ton last week, climbing 12% since the war echoed concerns of global market shortages. The Gulf hosts approximately 7 mn tons of aluminum production — representing about 9% of the world’s supply. EGA produces around 2.7 mtpa of primary aluminum in the UAE.
ENERGY — A 30-member national team and five technical committees will now steer a 2050 demand management plan for energy efficiency spanning 34 initiatives, Gulf News reports. The Energy and Infrastructure Ministry fast-tracked 16 initiatives across buildings, transport, industry, and agriculture, shifting focus toward the execution and coordination of energy and water consumption policies.
The targets: The plan plugs into the UAE’s updated Energy Strategy 2050, which aims to improve energy efficiency by 42-45% by 2030, triple renewable capacity, lift clean energy’s share of the mix to some 30%, and mobilize AED 150-200 bn in investments.
CAPITAL MARKETS — Shareholders of ADX-listed conglomerate International Holding Company (IHC) signed off on a fresh share buyback program worth up to AED 5 bn, representing roughly 0.6% of the company’s total shares, according to a bourse filing (pdf).
The move comes just three months after it wrapped another buyback program in December. Though it signaled at the time that it was done with further repurchases for the foreseeable future, the board is now looking toward a capital reduction via share cancellation if the shares aren’t sold in two years’ time.
A vote of confidence in its own shares: In the cold logic of capital allocation, a buyback is a company’s way of signaling that its own equity offers a better ROI than any external allocation or dividend. By returning to the market soon after its previous program, IHC is signaling that it still views its current share price as a markdown to its intrinsic value.
Market reax: IHC’s shares fell 0.2% yesterday to AED 390.2. It’s down 2.4% YTD.
BANKING — CBUAE readies resilience package to fortify banking sector: The Central Bank of the UAE has greenlit a five-pillar Financial Institutional Resilience Package to insulate the banking sector from global volatility, state news agency Wam reports.
Under the program, banks will have improved access — up to 30% — to their reserved reserves, extra loans in AED and USD, more leeway in keeping liquidity thresholds, and can more easily dip into extra capital buffers. They will also have more flexibility in postponing loan classification for clients in financial stress.
The big story abroad
Major escalations have kept the regional war on the front pages, chief among them was the killing of Iran’s top security official Ali Larijani by an Israeli airstrike. Larijani — a longtime architect of Iran’s security policy — is the most senior regime member killed in the war after former supreme leader Ali Khamenei, to whom he was a close advisor.
Israel also killed General Gholam Reza Soleimani, the head of Iran’s Revolutionary Guard’s all-volunteer Basij — a paramilitary volunteer militia.
Meanwhile, a top US counterterrorism official resigned over Washington’s war on the Islamic Republic. Joe Kent — the director of the US National Counterterrorism Center — stepped down yesterday, claiming that “Iran posed no imminent threat to [the US]” and attributed the operation to “pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.”
The war has sent US gas prices beyond USD 3.75 a gallon for the first time since October 2023, Reuters reports, citing data by fuel price tracker GasBuddy.
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Market watch
Middle East crude benchmarks are printing at record highs: Dubai hit USD 153.25 / bbl for May loading cargoes, while Oman futures touched USD 147.79 / bbl, Reuters reports, citing Platts. The premium to Dubai swaps surged to USD 56 / bbl from just USD 0.90 in February, with Oman showing a similar spike.
The demand side is already reacting: Crude flows to Asia dropped to 11.7 mn bbl / d in March from some 19 mn bbl / d in February. With Dubai pricing the bulk of Gulf crude into Asia, the spike is forcing buyers to either hunt for alternatives or simply process less. Meanwhile, the spread with Murban, sitting at USD 111.76 / bbl, is stretching credibility, exposing how disconnected the benchmark has become from actual tradable barrels.
The physical market is collapsing underneath the benchmark: Gulf crude exports fell by some 60-70% this week versus February levels, with flows dropping to as low as 7.5-9.7 mn bbl / d from some 25-26 mn bbl / d. Producers are shutting in output as storage fills up — with floating storage swelling to more than 50 mn barrels from some 10 mn pre-war — forcing cuts estimated at 7-10 mn bbl / d across the region.
The real issue sits within the benchmark itself, as a shrinking pool of trades sets global prices. Platts dropped three grades tied to Hormuz flows, leaving Oman and Murban to anchor the pricing window. Traders say the Market on Close window is effectively dominated by a single buyer, with TotalEnergies lifting 24 cargoes, or 12 mn barrels this month — enough to shape the curve. Platts is now reviewing its methodology.



