What’s next for the UAE as the fate of a shaky ceasefire hangs in the balance

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Is DP World eyeing a USD 13.2 bn stake in UK’s largest port operator? + 1 in eight Brits have left the UAE

Good morning, friends. We’re a day (and a few hours) into the two-week ceasefire, and we don’t know how to feel. While it triggered a sense of relief across markets, with both the DFM and ADX soaring on the news, and some companies are already discussing a return to the office, ongoing aggression from both sides has cast doubt on how likely it is that the ceasefire will hold.

The UAE — along with Bahrain, Saudi Arabia, and Kuwait — was targeted yesterday in a fresh round of Iranian attacks, while Lebanon was battered by Israel, with dozens of strikes across over 100 locations in Beirut. The UAE said its air defense systems were dealing with attacks well into the afternoon, with one of the strikes hitting Habshan gas facility, which has already been targeted multiple times since the start of the war.

Abu Dhabi has called for a “sustained approach” in responding to the threats posed by Tehran, and “further clarification” on what the ceasefire’s provisions are, the Foreign Ministry said in a statement. The ministry also emphasized the importance of “ending threats to freedom of navigation, as well as economic warfare and piracy in the Strait of Hormuz.”

As we enter a period of uncertainty over the next two weeks, we take a step back to try to make sense of what might unfold, and how officials and investors might use these two weeks to prepare for what’s next.

We dive into the potential outcomes of the temporary ceasefire agreement, the capital market response and how performance might look in the near term, as well as how long it might take to resume normal energy flows — all in this morning’s issue. Let’s dive in.

WEATHER- The rain is not done with us just yet. Bouts of rainfall are expected across the country from today until Monday, according to the National Center of Meteorology. Expect a mostly cloudy day today, with a high of 30°C and a low of 23°C in Dubai and Abu Dhabi.

Watch this space

M&A WATCH — DP World eyeing USD 13.2 bn stake in UK’s biggest port operator? A controlling 64% stake worth USD 13.2 bn in the UK’s largest port operator, Associated British Ports (ABP), is up for grabs, and DP World is reportedly interested, Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are familiar with the matter.

Currently, nothing is set in stone, and discussions are still underway. The likes of Brookfield Asset Management, KKR & Co, and BlackRock’s Global Infrastructure Partners are also reportedly interested in snapping up the stake from Canada Pension Plan Investment Board and Toronto-based Omers Administration Corp.

The target: As the UK’s largest port operator, ABP handles roughly a quarter of the UK’s maritime trade.

IN CONTEXT- DP World already operates two deepwater ports and freight rail terminals at Southampton and London Gateway, the latter of which it had previously committed to investing GBP 1 bn into.

MACRO — The World Bank has lowered the UAE’s GDP growth projection for 2026 to 2.4%, a 2.7 percentage point downward revision from January’s forecast, according to its latest regional economic update (pdf). Despite the revision, we’re doing better than some of our neighbors thanks to “strides in reorienting [our] economies toward financial services, tourism, and manufacturing.”

The US-Iran war did a number on GCC projections. The lender slashed its growth forecast for the GCC to 1.3% in 2026, down from the 4.4% penciled in in January. Qatar and Kuwait dragged the forecast down, with both economies now expected to end the year in contraction. The most notable risks facing the Gulf are extended disruption to hydrocarbon exports, souring investor preferences, and reduced tourism, aviation, and maritime services.

TOURISM — The war could wipe USD 13-32 bn in GCC tourism revenues, Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) Secretary General Jasem Albudaiwi told officials during an extraordinary GCC tourism ministers meeting, Saudi Gazette reports. Tourism arrivals could be down by 8-19 mn on the back of the regional conflict, he added.

ICYMI- As we’ve previously reported, tourism in the Emirates was on a roll prior to the war, accounting for USD 70.1 bn of GDP in 9M 2025. Forecasts expect that inbound arrivals to the region could shrink by as much as 27% y-o-y this year, after the UAE clocked 8.5k holiday rental cancellations on the day the conflict erupted.

The UAE government is trying to support the sector, rolling out state-backed initiatives to try and give the hospitality sector a boost, including fee deferrals and tax rebates for upgrades.

Data point

One in eight — that’s how many British citizens have left the UAE since the conflict began, the Financial Times reports. Around 30k British residents (10-15% of the long-term population) are now outside the UAE out of a pre-conflict population of 240k.

A 180: As we’ve previously reported, until recently, the UAE was a top alternative destination, along with Saudi Arabia, for high-net-worth individuals from the UK looking to escape tax reforms and economic stagnation.

The shift is already rippling through sectors like education, where operators had been banking on steady enrollment growth of up to 7% y-o-y. Dubai-based security consultant Nigel Lea said many have chosen to relocate temporarily to share childcare and schooling responsibilities with families back home, adding that most are expected to return.

There’s been a parallel wave of departures from other international groups. More than 52k Indian nationals left the UAE and the wider Gulf between March 1 and 7, The Times of India reports. The bulk of that flow appears tied to travel disruptions and short-term movements rather than a structural exit, as airspace tightening triggered a wave of departures. As of mid-March, over 40k Americans had left the Middle East after the conflict began.

Happening this week

India’s External Affairs Minister Subrahmanyam Jaishankar will be in the UAE on Saturday and Sunday for a diplomatic meeting, according to a press release. The meeting will focus on strengthening regional cooperation and deepening the Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (Cepa) between the two countries.

The UAE-India corridor runs deep, and the countries’ 2022-era Cepa has been bearing fruit for some time now. Earlier this year, the two inked a raft of agreements spanning space, food trade, investment, tech, defense, and energy. The two are aiming to double bilateral trade to USD 200 bn. More recently, India has also extended the UAE’s gold import quota deadline to offset disruptions to the gold supply chain from the war.

The big story abroad

The global front pages remain fixated on the aftermath of what is shaping up to be a pretty fragile ceasefire agreement. We have more on that and what it means for us at home in the news well, below.

Oil is rising again: After the news of the ceasefire dragged oil prices down, fear that tensions could escalate again pushed prices up in early trading today. Brent crude rose 2.5% to USD 97.14 per barrel.

Meanwhile, in the world of AI: Tech giant Meta has debuted its first AI model — Muse Spark — after CEO Mark Zuckerberg’s latest spending drive on new-hires and infrastructure. Pitched as an improved version of virtual assistant Meta AI, the new product enables more personalized and visual responses and draws from content shared across Facebook, Instagram, and Threads.

And in the feud between Anthropic and the Pentagon, a Washington DC federal appeals court declined to obstruct the national security blacklisting of the AI ‌company. The move could block contractors who work with the Pentagon from using AI models by the startup.

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The aftermath

We’re entering yet another period of uncertainty these next two weeks, where one of two scenarios could follow: negotiations could result in a permanent end to the conflict, or we’ll see a much darker outcome where the US/Israel and Iran don’t see eye to eye.

Political analysts and economists the world over are putting their thinking hats on and debating how things might unfold. On one hand, the ceasefire was great news for the GCC, and the short reprieve could allow governments to — at the very least — strategize and prepare for what’s ahead. On the other hand, question marks over the differences between the two sides linger.

Even the announcement itself signalled miscommunication among the different parties involved, with Pakistan’s Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif saying the agreement applied everywhere “including Lebanon,” after which Israel confirmed that’s not true.

Both sides have maximalist demands, and it’s unclear whether either of them are willing to sway on them. While the US demands an end to Iran’s nuclear program, no further enrichment of uranium, the dismantlement of ballistic missile and drone capacity, and the full reopening of the Strait of Hormuz, Iran is set on “coordinating” traffic in the Strait and keeping its nuclear program, as well as full sanctions relief.

The wild card in all of this could be Israel: “Israel has very different interests from the US and could be a spoiler, particularly if it continues the war in Lebanon,” director of Khalij Economics and GCC analyst for GlobalSource Partners Justin Alexander told EnterpriseAM. Confluence Consultants’ Head of Research Amandeep Ahuja agrees: “One of the biggest obstacles in my view is the lack of coherence between US and Israeli policy,” Ahuja said, noting that alignment could be difficult, even as peace is more in sight than it was before.

It has already launched its worst attack on Lebanon since the war started, killing 254 people, prompting Iran to shut the Strait of Hormuz and threaten to withdraw from the ceasefire agreement.

What can the Gulf do now?

The UAE was quick to declare itself “triumphant” in the aftermath of the ceasefire, with Diplomatic Advisor to the President Anwar Gargash saying on X that the country “prevailed through an epic national defense” and that moving forward, the focus is on managing a “complex regional landscape with greater leverage, sharper insight, and a more solid capacity to influence and shape the future.”

Hardening defense systems in the two-week period is likely: “It is possible that GCC states diversify and deepen defense cooperation arrangements [with the likes of Australia, Italy, and France,” Ahuja said. “In the meantime, they may also seek to enhance security in the key infrastructure spots that could be targeted, including ports, data centers, etc,” she added.

Gulf states including the UAE and Saudi Arabia are already exploring new defense systems, including USD 2.5k Ukrainian-designed interceptor drones, Japan-based Terra Drone ’s CEO Toru Tokushige told Reute rs.

Middle East expansion: Terra Drone, which has recently partnered with Ukraine startup Amazing Drones to develop the Terra A1 interceptor, plans to market the drones overseas and potentially establish production in the Gulf, Tokushige said. The interceptor has yet to be battle-tested and is expected to undergo trials with Ukraine’s military in the coming months.

REMEMBER- The outbreak of war triggered a defense rethink for the GCC, pushing countries to look for alternative air and missile defense systems that don’t cost USD 3-12 mn per shot to take down a USD 20-100k Iranian drone. In a meeting between the UAE’s and Ukraine’s leaders last month, Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy said his country was offering its defense systems to partners.

What about building up its offensive defenses? “The stance so far has been defensive instead of offensive, and that is likely to continue, but we can expect the states to be ready for an offensive stance, despite not being particularly inclined to lean towards it,” Ahuja said.

Longer-term investments in repair and recovery will take more time

“Hard-hit sectors’ revival may be a longer term project,” Ahuja added. That includes damage to oil and gas facilities, including Habshan, and industrial facilities like Emirates Global Aluminium’s Al Taweelah facility, which was severely damaged following strikes from Iran. It will take a year to fully restore production.

Analysts estimate around 3 mn tonnes per annum of aluminum capacity are currently offline — roughly half of Middle East production, between disruptions at EGA and Aluminum Bahrain, as well as the shutdowns at Qatar’s Qatalum due to natural gas shortages, aluminum industry expert and PerenniAL CEO Brian Hesse told EnterpriseAM. This has widened the pre-existing global market deficit, previously forecast around 360k tonnes for 2026, to an estimated 2–2.5 mn tonnes if the outage persists, he added.

Downstream sectors including aerospace, automotive, packaging, and construction face tighter supply, higher costs, and potential allocation issues, he noted. Hesse also sees the likelihood of London Metal Exchange reaching USD 4k in the near future, echoing what analysts told us earlier.

The more important feat will be restoring the “safe haven” image

“Reviving [the safe haven reputation] will likely take time, but these two weeks are definitely the beginning of that recovery — provided the ceasefire holds,” Ahuja said. “For investors seeking to expand partnerships in the region, the two weeks may provide a slight push into them reconsidering a return to the region, but a full return will require a permanent resolution,” she added.

Two weeks might not be enough to bring back those who have left, though: “It may be a bit early for [those who left] to make a decision whether to come back or not because we don't know yet whether this is a lasting agreement or something temporary,” former US ambassador to Oman and Middle East policy analyst Marc Sievers told EnterpriseAM UAE. Sievers is based in Abu Dhabi himself, and hasn’t left since the start of the war. His view, along with many others we’ve spoken to, is that the UAE will “come out of this stronger than ever.”

Private bankers who have left are already considering coming back to the UAE after the ceasefire news. Sentiment is fluctuating between skepticism and confidence, but some execs are already making return plans, Bloomberg reports.

One major bank told us it will remain fully remote this week, but that it’s monitoring the situation currently.

Disruptions are likely to continue, at least in the near term

The Strait of Hormuz will be key, if it does stay open. “I think everyone will in their own way take advantage of this opportunity and I'm hopeful that there is some arrangement that keeps the Strait of Hormuz open,” Sievers said. This has yet to materialize after the events that unfolded yesterday, but even if it does, there’s the matter of derisking.

“Shipping is going to be reluctant to test that until it's entirely clear that it's safe to pass through, and that may also involve some kind of ad hoc coalition to escort shipping,” he added. Bahrain and the UAE have already signalled they’re open to joining a coalition of that kind, and the US has spearheaded similar initiatives before.

It’s not so easy to start things over

Bleeding stops, but healing takes time: Getting oil moving again through Hormuz is one thing, but getting the Gulf energy system back on track is another. The recent ceasefire opens the door to transit in the strait, but the system behind it is still fragile, with strikes hitting refineries, storage, and fields across Gulf countries.

A sea-turned-storage could be a relief: There’s some 130 mn barrels of crude, 46 mn barrels of refined fuels, and 1.3 mn tons of LNG sitting idle on tankers across the Gulf. These volumes can move quickly once routes reopen.

But clearing the backlog of cargoes is only half the equation — and moving ships out is easier than convincing them to come back in. Hundreds of vessels and shipowners are preparing to move, but transit protocols and key terms are still unclear. Charters remain cautious, with Maersk noting that “the ceasefire may create transit [windows], but it does not yet provide full maritime certainty and we need to understand all potential conditions attached.”

Crucially, without confidence that tankers will be there to lift cargo, producers won’t rush to restart — they can’t afford to produce barrels they can’t move. National oil companies like Aramco may be hesitant before restoring output without clarity on the ceasefire conditions.

The GCC will now play a sequencing game: The first barrels back to market won’t come from fresh output but from crude and products already sitting in tanks in the Gulf. That buys time, but it’s finite, and it masks the deeper issue that upstream and midstream systems are still impaired.

It will likely take some time

Wells don’t like being turned off: Idled wells lose pressure balance, take on water, and face corrosion risks — especially with hydrogen sulfide exposure. In Saudi and Iraq, where enhanced recovery techniques like gas and water injection are standard, restarting is recalibrating entire reservoir systems under stable conditions.

Refining will be the quiet bottleneck: The UAE halted its Ruwais plant after a drone strike early last month. That matters because refined products are where shortages hit harder.

Even in the best-case scenario, this is a staggered recovery: Some wells could return in days or weeks if damage is limited and security holds. But full system normalization — across production, processing, and export — is a months-long process at minimum, and it can take years where infrastructure has taken a real hit.

REMEMBER- The potential bill for repairing energy infrastructure across the Gulf could reach USD 25 bn, with engineering and construction taking the biggest share, followed by equipment and materials.

UAE equities cheer ceasefire despite ongoing attacks

Dubai stocks are out of the trenches — at least for now: The two-week ceasefire sent Dubai equities up 6.9% yesterday, after staging their biggest intraday rally (+8.5%) in twelve years. Despite the green screens, analysts warn us that a long-term recovery will be a long haul.

Don’t mistake a rebound for a breakout: “While [yesterday’s] bounce is a welcome reaction, near-term volatility is expected as investors await the final terms of a long-term peace [agreement] and analyze how a shifting geopolitical landscape will impact various sectors over time,” Junaid Ansari, director of investment strategy and research at Kamco Invest, tells EnterpriseAM. “We are yet to see any change in the physical market,” he added.

IN CONTEXT- The rally comes weeks after war-driven jitters sent regional markets into a tailspin, triggering foreign outflows and turning UAE equities into a cold trade. The DFM bore the brunt of the selloff due to “its higher retail flows and cyclical sectors,” Head of Research at Ubhar Capital Tahir Abbas has recently told us. That divergence showed up clearly in March, with the DFM down 16.4% versus an 8.9% decline on the ADX as foreign investors pulled roughly AED 1.06 bn.

A coiled spring uncoils

Turnover picked up yesterday on the DFM, with 626.8 mn shares changing hands, generating some AED 2.4 bn in value across more than 40k trades.

Investors piled into the most war-sensitive asset class. Real estate (+11.6) led sector gains on the DFM, with industrials (+7.4%) and utilities (+6.9%) close behind. Financials (+5.7%) and staples (+5.3%) also posted gains.

The rally was led by a mix of speculative plays and core market proxies: Ekttitab Holding (+14.9%), REIT (+13.7%), and Shuaa Capital (+13.4%) all posted sharp double-digit gains, while Emaar Properties rose 12.9% on more than AED 1.1 bn in traded value.

The ADX, which had been holding up better than its Dubai counterpart, also closed in the green yesterday, posting a 2.8% increase, according to market data. Some 589.3 mn shares changed hands for AED 2.6 bn.

Gains on the ADX were more broad-based. Real estate (+9.9%) led the move, followed by healthcare (+5.6%), technology (+4.1%), industrials (+4.0%), and energy (+3.8%). This points to a more balanced recovery across sectors, with defensives and growth names moving in tandem.

“Markets found much-needed relief [yesterday] as a pause in tensions allowed oversold sectors like real estate and transportation to rebound,” Ansari tells us. “Conversely, the energy and petrochemical industries saw declines as the war premium faded,” he added.

Markets are ahead of the curve

“Investors are viewing the UAE more as a temporary dislocation [...] especially after the ceasefire,” Christy Achkar, financial market analyst at CFI Dubai, tells EnterpriseAM. “Markets may now price in a bit more caution going forward, meaning stability is expected, but with less overconfidence than before,” she added.

The real economy is lagging: While the stock market priced in peace, the actual infrastructure, crude output, petchems, and logistics will need more time to normalize, Ansari tells us. “Confidence in sectors like tourism and real estate will also take time to get restored,” he added.

We may also benefit from a shift in regional flows as oil prices pull back: Since neighboring Saudi markets are more directly tethered to oil revenues, the softening of crude prices makes UAE stocks look more attractive on a relative basis. “Investors are likely to gradually rotate some flows back into UAE equities [which are] more sensitive to improving risk sentiment and capital inflows,” Achkar said.

The war is testing Indian students’ confidence in the UAE

The war is testing the UAE’s status as a popular study-abroad destination for Indian students: While the UAE has seen a drastic surge in enrolments from India in recent years, regional uncertainty due to the war is leading Indian students and families to price risk into their choice of study destinations. That comes as the war tests the Emirates’ main selling point for Indian university students — the promise of a safe, nearby, low-cost alternative to Western education.

The UAE market is heavily skewed toward undergraduate Indian students, making it particularly sensitive to parental risk perception at this stage, Praneet Singh, assistant VP of study abroad at education firm UpGrad, tells EnterpriseAM. He describes the current instability as “unprecedented for a country seen as among the safest globally.”

“The ceasefire will not change sentiment until peace returns in the Middle East. It will take time […] people are confused,” says Sanjay Narang, center director of Delhi at KC Overseas Education. “We were doing so well in the UAE. It was the closest and most secure option, but the war has shaken confidence.” Visa hurdles in the US and Canada, a weak job market in the UK, affordability concerns in Australia, and capacity intake and language limits in Europe are all factors that have limited options for students.

It has an immediate impact: A 10-15% drop in applications from India is expected if disruptions persist through June, says Singh. In Dubai, regulators have endorsed remote learning till 17 April, and campuses are yet to provide firm timelines for resumption.

The next 4-6 weeks will be critical for decision-making, when fee deposits are paid, and travel decisions are locked in. Undergraduate students are highly exposed with limited flexibility to defer, unlike postgraduates, Narang explains. Most admitted for the April intake in the UAE have deferred enrolment to September.

In the interim: Some families are considering options such as starting in private Indian institutions or markets like Malaysia, South Korea, Japan, or New Zealand, though course options in these countries are much narrower and costs are steeper, according to Narang. Some universities are offering hybrid packages — a year of study in India followed by overseas completion — such as Australia’s Deakin University. These pathways are gaining traction as families seek flexibility, he said.

Emirati institutions moved quickly to contain disruptions with online classes or advanced summer breaks while “overcommunicating” with students through check-ins and helplines, Singh tells us. Upgrad has not received any panic-driven transfer requests so far, he added.

Cost is a key stabilizer: Moving from the UAE to the UK, the US, or Canada would raise expenses by as much as USD 42k, limiting the likelihood of abrupt migration despite safety concerns, argues Singh. “The UAE’s return on investment, career outcomes, and residency pathways like the Golden Visa remain intact” and will likely re-anchor demand once hostilities subside. Institutions, however, may have to compete harder on flexibility, refunds, and mobility pathways to offset perceived risk.

L’imad + other GCC SWFs reportedly commit USD 24 bn to Paramount’s takeover of Warner Bros.

GCC SWFs in talks on USD 24 bn to back Paramount’s Warner Bros. acquisition: Abu Dhabi’s L’imad, the Saudi Public Investment Fund, and the Qatar Investment Authority are backing Paramount’s takeover of Warner Bros. Discovery to the tune of USD 24, The Wall Street Journal reports, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. The same figure was previously reported, but the pen hadn’t been put to paper yet.

The breakdown: The three funds finalized commitments just shy of USD 24 bn, with the PIF providing the lion’s share at around USD 10 bn. L’imad and QIA’s investment commitments weren’t specified. The broader transaction places an equity value of roughly USD 81 bn on Warner, or about USD 110 bn including debt.

Foreign control fears addressed: Only a few weeks ago, some US politicians were calling for an investigation into the agreement, citing “foreign investment concerns.” The takeover’s fine print seems to have addressed that, with the Gulf funds holding minority, non-voting positions in the combined company, each below the 25% threshold, to minimize the likelihood of reviews by the US’ Committee on Foreign Investment.

Who else is involved? Paramount Global has also secured about USD 54 bn in debt financing from Bank of America, Citigroup, and Apollo Global Management and started distributing portions of that debt to additional banks and investors. US-based RedBird Capital Partners, which was involved in an Abu Dhabi-backed bid for the UK’s Telegraph newspaper, is also backing the takeover.

Paramount is targeting a 3Q 2026 close for the transaction, subject to regulatory clearance. The merger would bring together major media assets, including CBS, CNN, and HBO, boosting its competitive position as audiences continue shifting toward streaming platforms.

Investors responded positively to the update, with Paramount’s shares rising almost 11% on Tuesday as the confirmed funding reduced uncertainty around the transaction, Deadline reports.

REMEMBER- The battle for Warner Bros. Discovery reached a dramatic end in February, with Netflix walking away from its bid for the Hollywood studio and streaming giant, paving the way for Paramount to acquire the firm.

ADIB hires wholesale banking head, Fuze taps regulatory affairs director, and Al Mal gets a new CEO

ADIB appoints new global head of wholesale banking: Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank (ADIB) tapped Hakim El Karoui (LinkedIn) as global head of the wholesale banking group, according to a press release.

El Karoui brings over 27 years of experience in the financial services and banking sector, with a background in corporate and investment banking, risk management, and capital markets across both MENA and international markets. His previous experience includes serving as managing director and co-head of global corporate and investment banking at Merrill Lynch, as well as a tenure at Citigroup.

Fuze is bolstering its in-house regulatory team: Abu Dhabi-backed financial infrastructure provider Fuze appointed Khalifa Mohamed Al Fahim as director of regulatory affairs, according to a press release. Al Fahim’s experience includes tenures at the Central Bank of the UAE, the UAE Financial Intelligence Unit, and Wio Bank.

Dubai-based asset manager Al Mal Capital promoted deputy CEO Sanjay Vig (LinkedIn) to the top job, according to a press release. Vig joined the firm in 2016 as managing director for corporate advisory and direct investments. Prior to his tenure at Al Mal, Vig worked at the likes of Monument, Mashreq, and Alpen Capital.

Adia-backed USD 18.3 bn Hologic buyout completed, UK’s MHA makes UAE acquisition, and UAE + Bahrain ink AED 20 bn currency swap

Adia-backed USD 18.3 bn Hologic buyout crosses finish line

Hologic buyout wraps up: Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (Adia) finalized its minority stake investment in the USD 18.3 bn acquisition of US-based women’s health firm Hologic, joined by private equity giant minority investors Blackstone, TPG, and GIC, according to a company statement. Hologic also tapped Joe Almeida as the firm’s new CEO, and the firm will be delisted from the Nasdaq.

Price structure: The transaction, which stacks up to USD 79 per share, establishes Hologic as a private company, with Hologic shareholders receiving USD 76 in immediate banknotes and USD 3 in non-tradeable contingent value rights. The payout is contingent on Hologic’s Breast Health division hitting specific revenue targets in FY 2026-27.

Let’s refresh: The transaction was first made public last October, after Hologic rejected an earlier USD 16 bn bid from Blackstone and TPG. The acquisition marks the largest transaction in the medical services sector in almost two decades.

CBUAE inks another currency swap agreement — this time with Bahrain

CBUAE, Bahrain ink AED 20 bn currency swap agreement: The Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) established a currency swap agreement, valued at AED 20 bn, with the Central Bank of Bahrain, according to a press release (pdf).

Other recent currency swaps: Last October, the Emirati and Turkish central banks also inked a number of currency swap agreements to streamline liquidity and cross-border trade activity. The CBUAE had also inked a similar agreement with the People’s Bank of China, valued at AED 18 bn (CNY 35 bn), and an AED 3 bn agreement with Ethiopia.

MHA is making its move in the UAE

UK-based audit and advisory business MHA completed its merger with audit, tax, advisory, and corporate services firm Moore Stephens UAE, bringing the Dubai firm under its platform and rebranding the combined entity as MHA UAE, according to a press release. Moore Stephens UAE has offices across Dubai, Abu Dhabi, ADGM, Jafza, and Sharjah and is an approved auditor at DIFC.

Edge Group’s bid to acquire stake in Ukrainian missile maker foiled

Defence giant Edge Group's bid to acquire a 30% stake in Ukrainian missile manufacturer Fire Point was turned down, Kyiv’s anti-monopoly committee told Reuters. The regulatory body said that the application for the transaction — valued at USD 760 mn — did not meet the required criteria.

Move over inflation: Central banks have a new biggest fear

For the first time in years, the people managing the world's money are more worried about missiles than inflation. Some 70% of central banks — who collectively manage over USD 9.5 tn in reserves — now rank geopolitical tension as their top global risk, according to a Central Banking Publications survey of about 100 institutions picked up by Reuters.

That is a massive spike from the 35% who held that view in 2024, knocking US trade protectionism out of the top anxiety spot. Inflation and interest rates are still a primary five-year concern for just over half of reserve managers, but that figure has dropped from 76% last year.

Why it matters

The shifting geopolitical tectonic plates are shaking trust in US debt and the USD. Some 80% of reserve managers still view the greenback as the world's primary safe-haven currency, but its absolute dominance is increasingly being questioned. The USD index (DXY) shed over 12% against a basket of top currencies between January of last year and this year.

The appetite for US debt is also taking a major hit. Only a third of survey respondents expect US bonds to outperform those of other G7 economies and China. That is a big drop in confidence compared to 2024, when over 70% expected US Treasuries to lead the pack. The percentage of central banks that see the USD role directly impacting their reserve management decisions over the next five years has also jumped to 16%, up from just 3% last year.

What's next?

Gold is poised to catch the overflow: The clear beneficiary of this macro anxiety is gold. Nearly 75% of central banks currently hold the precious metal in their reserves, and almost 40% are actively considering increasing their exposure.

The regional ripple effects will be highly asymmetric. This shifting risk landscape was a core theme at the European Central Bank Watchers Conference, where policymakers highlighted how differently these shocks will land.

Europe's energy trap: Bank of Finland Governor Olli Rehn warned that Europe faces “asymmetric” exposure to Middle Eastern conflicts because of its structural reliance on imported energy. Rehn argued the bloc urgently needs targeted fiscal measures and common financing to bolster its own defense and capital markets.

China's buffers: China is relatively insulated from immediate energy shocks thanks to its massive strategic oil reserves, UBS chief China economist Tao Wang noted. Even if global oil spikes to USD 130 a barrel, it would only partially translate to domestic prices, though Wang warned that geopolitical risks globally have become “highly unpredictable.”

The Fed's credibility test: University of Wisconsin professor Menzie Chinn pointed out that the global economy is facing a “highly shocking” year. If the US Federal Reserve's credibility is eroded in this environment, it could fundamentally alter the USD’s international position and how foreign central banks manage their reserve holdings moving forward.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

After yesterday's rally, Asian markets are down in early trading this morning amid fears that tensions between the US and Iran will escalate again. Japan’s Nikkei is down 0.5% and South Korea’s Kospi is down 1.3%. Meanwhile, US stock futures are flat.

ADX	9,869	+2.9% (YTD: -1.2%)
DFM	5,777	+6.9% (YTD: -4.5%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	4,791	+7.1% (YTD: -2.0%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	3.5% o/n	4.0% 1 yr
TASI	11,339	+2.3% (YTD: +8.1%)
EGX30	48,594	+4.1% (YTD: +16.1%)
S&P 500	6,783	+2.5% (YTD: -0.9%)
FTSE 100	10,609	+2.5% (YTD: +6.8%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,913	+5.0% (YTD: +2.1%)
Brent crude	USD 96.70	-11.5%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.74	+0.4%
Gold	USD 4,713	-0.2%
BTC	USD 70,996	-1.3% (YTD: -19.0%)
Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	AED 3.66	-1.1% (YTD: -2.4%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	149.24	-0.1% (YTD: -1.8%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	21.04	-18.4% (YTD: +40.7%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The DFM rose 6.9% yesterday on turnover of AED 2.4 bn. The index is down 4.5% YTD.

In the green: Ekttitab Holding Company (+15.0%), Emirates REIT (CEIC) (+13.7%), and Shuaa Capital (+13.4%).

In the red: Aram Group (-4.2%), RAK Co. for White Cement & Construction Materials (-3.6%), and Investcorp Capital (-2.7%).

Over on the ADX, the index rose 2.9% on turnover of AED 2.5 bn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was up 7.1%.

CALENDAR

APRIL

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Abu Dhabi Global Entrepreneurship Festival, Abu Dhabi Energy Center, Abu Dhabi

21 April (Tuesday): FAO Regional Conference for the Near East (NERC38), Al Ain.

28-29 April (Tuesday-Wednesday): Innovation Summit Middle East & Africa, Abu Dhabi.

MAY

4-8 May (Wednesday-Saturday): Make It in the Emirates, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

8-24 May (Saturday-Sunday): Dubai Esports and Games Festival, Dubai.

11-13 May (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

11-15 May (Monday-Friday): Dubai Future Finance Week, Dubai.

12-14 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit, ICC Hall, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

19-20 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Capital Market Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

19-22 May (Tuesday-Friday): Abu Dhabi Water and Energy Week, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

20-21 May (Wednesday-Thursday): Arab Competition Forum, Dubai.

JUNE

3-4 June (Wednesday-Thursday): MENA Investor Conference, Ritz-Carlton DIFC, Dubai.

15 June - 15 September (Monday-Thursday): Dubai Mallathon, Dubai.

22-24 June (Monday-Wednesday): The International Glass Manufacturing Show, Dubai.

JULY

31 July (Friday): Large businesses achieving annual revenues equal to or above AED 50 mn must appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.

AUGUST

17-20 August (Monday-Thursday): Arabian Travel Market, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

SEPTEMBER

1-3 September (Tuesday-Thursday: Middle East Energy, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): International Property Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

12-13 September (Saturday-Sunday): Emirates International Congress on AI & Visionary Leadership in Transforming Healthcare, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

OCTOBER

4-10 October (Sunday-Saturday): World Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

12-14 October (Monday-Wednesday: Airport Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

20-22 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Health Summit, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

NOVEMBER

4 November (Wednesday): Digital Transformation Summit, Sofitel, Abu Dhabi.

9-10 November (Monday-Tuesday): Annual government meetings, Abu Dhabi.

10-12 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Dubai International Electric Vehicle Exhibition & Conference, Dubai World Trade Center.

DECEMBER

2-4 December (Wednesday-Friday): UN Water Conference, UAE.

Signposted to happen in 2026:

Investopia Global Talks, Tashkent;
Investopia, Abu Dhabi.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1 January: Deadline for large businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project;

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): World Governments Summit;
31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
21-22 April (Wednesday-Thursday): Token2049, Dubai;
1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing;
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2028:

Artificial Intelligence Summit.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai;
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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