UAE equity sell-off continues

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Standard Chartered-backed firm plans shariah-compliant wealth management firm + Paramount’s bid for Warner Bros. is in the spotlight

Good morning, friends. It’s shaping up to be a slow newsweek so far, which is expected given the back-from-Eid and remote-work-induced lull. The lack of conferences and events during what would typically be peak season is also contributing to the quiet, with events scheduled for this week — including the Arabian Travel Market — having been delayed to the fall.

THE BIG STORY here at home is the sell-off returning to markets, even after a brief relief from government initiatives — like the Central Bank of the UAE’s resilience package — helped prop up the indices last week.

That came after US President Donald Trump and Iran exchanged a tit-for-tat of war escalation threats, which Trump did backtrack on later in the day, claiming talks with Iran are ongoing — a claim Iranian state media has quoted Iranian officials as denying. The damage, of course, had already been done, and outflows continued to hit UAE equities.

PLUS- Industry and Advanced Technology Minister Sultan Al Jaber delivered his annual address at the energy meet-up in Houston known as CeraWeek — virtually this time — ahead of a visit to Washington later this week for meetings. To no one’s surprise, the war dominated the narrative at the meet-up and in the minister’s speech. We break down the updates on that, and ongoing disruptions to oil and gas and logistics, in this morning’s War Watch below.

WEATHER- The stormy weather continues, with showers and thunderstorms expected across the country, along with highs of 28-29°C and a low of 21°C.

Watch this space

Wealth platforms are still wagering on the UAE — even as regional tensions disrupt operations. Backed by Standard Chartered’s innovation arm, fintech firm Vault22 is pushing ahead with plans to launch a shariah-compliant wealth platform in the UAE, Bloomberg reports. The move is a vote of confidence amid regional turbulence, especially since Standard Chartered was reportedly among those evacuating its office last week.

About the platform: The UAE-based player is set to roll out its Hafiq platform, a personal Islamic finance tool, around the middle of this year. The offerings include an AI-powered shariah screening engine for investments, a real-time zakat calculator, and ETFs and thematic portfolios targeting younger investors.

Why here? The move taps into the USD 6 tn global Islamic finance market, and the company has already set up its base in the Dubai Financial Center. The firm’s co-founder Stephen Ong said clients need reliable services even more during turbulent times, the business information service reports.

What’s next: Vault22, which also counts Franklin Templeton among its backers, is in talks with investors, including Gulf family offices, to fund its expansion. Expansion elsewhere in the Gulf, as well as Southeast Asia and Africa, is also in the cards.

Some are calling for Paramount’s takeover bid of Warner Bros. to be reviewed for “foreign investment concerns,” with several US Democratic senators pushing for the move, according to a statement. Currently, Paramount is set to merge with the Hollywood studio and streaming giant, after the other competitor, Netflix, walked away from its bid. Paramount had increased its bid to USD 31 per share to beat out Netflix’s effort.

The areas of concern: The senators share “deep concern” that Gulf sovereign wealth funds are providing USD bns for the merger, and they are also worried about other backers’ links to China.

The UAE’s L’imad is among those backing Paramount’s bid. However, the exact split of investments between those involved hasn’t been disclosed so far. Previous reports indicated that L’imad, the Qatar Investment Authority, and Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund had provided USD 24 bn for the bid.

Up next: The senators are calling for a full review of foreign ownership interests, a veto on any confidentiality requests, making all information related to the transaction public, and coordinating with national security authorities on the takeover.

PSA

Getting off Al Reem Island just got quicker: Abu Dhabi opened two new bridges linking Al Reem Island directly to Sheikh Khalifa Bin Zayed Highway (E12), cutting peak travel times by up to 60% — or around 15 minutes. The AED 450 mn project is set to ease pressure on bottlenecks like Mina Road and Hamdan Bin Mohammed Street, improving flow between Reem, Saadiyat, and the Dubai-bound highway.

A new expansion at Yas Waterworld is opening soon: Miral is pushing ahead with its plans for Yas Waterworld Abu Dhabi despite regional turbulence, with the latest stage of expansion scheduled to open on 4 April, according to Abu Dhabi Media Office. The newest additions to the Lost City expansion will include 11 new slides and attractions.

The big story abroad

The US-Israel war on Iran has not slowed down yet, but US President Donald Trump did announce a five-day pause in strikes and indicate a resumption of talks with Tehran. Trump notably walked back his threat to target the Islamic Republic’s power grid after being urged by US allies and Gulf states, unnamed sources told Bloomberg.

But Tehran has denied that it agreed to talk to Washington. “No negotiations have been held with the US, and fakenews is used to manipulate the financial and oil markets and escape the quagmire in which the US and Israel are trapped,” Iran’s Parliament Speaker Mohammad Baqer Qalibaf said.

Oil prices eased on the news: Crude prices fell 11% yesterday following Trump’s decision to delay airstrikes on Iran’s energy facilities and his contested reference to resumed negotiations. Brent crude tumbled USD 12.25 — a 10.9% drop — to close at USD 99.94 per barrel.

Wall Street welcomed the decision to delay strikes, with its three major indexes closing in the green, up over 1%.

Also making headlines is the collision between an Air Canada Express jet and a fire truck at New York’s LaGuardia airport. Both pilots were killed and dozens were injured. Aviation safety experts said that air traffic staffing levels — an encroaching issue in US aviation — will be a part of the ensuing investigation.

MEANWHILE- In the world of AI: Asset management firm BlackRock’s CEO Larry Fink has raised the alarm over the AI boom, which he says could make wealth disparities more severe. AI stands to continue the trend of keeping gains among individuals who already own financial assets but “at an even larger scale,” Fink said.

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Markets back in the red

UAE indices broke their two-day winning streak yesterday amid the back-and-forth of threats between US President Donald Trump and Iran of further escalation, with broad-based selling taking place across both the Dubai Financial Market (DFM) and the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX).

Dubai’s main index slipped 2.7%, while Abu Dhabi’s benchmark fell 1.6%, as disruptions tied to the Strait of Hormuz continue to weigh on sentiment — pushing Dubai’s YTD losses to 10.7% and Abu Dhabi’s to 5.9%.

Declines were widespread on the DFM. Heavyweights like Emaar Properties (-4.6%) and Emirates NBD (-4.9%) dragged the index, with the sell-off also extending across smaller names.

The ADX saw heavy selling across banking stocks and large caps. Declines were led by Aldar Properties, First Abu Dhabi Bank, and Abu Dhabi Ports Company, all down 5%. Gains were selective, with Fertiglobe up 5.7% and Adnoc Distribution gaining over 2%, with limited breadth.

The bigger picture

UAE markets saw around USD 750 mn in net foreign outflows last week, making them among the most affected across the region, Ibrahim Masood, head of equities at Mashreq, said during a webinar (watch, runtime: 31:31). The UAE saw the most outflows by a wide margin, followed by Kuwait at USD 100 mn. Saudi Arabia, on the other hand, saw net inflows of over USD 40 mn.

This is mostly driven by Emirati oil exports’ exposure to oil disruptions, with sectors like real estate and financial services also suffering from a growing risk-off sentiment.

“We expect the UAE to remain under pressure, with financials, real estate, and industrials continuing to face stress from ongoing investor risk-off sentiment,” Masood added.

Hormuz disruption is “economic terrorism,” says Adnoc CEO

“Economic terrorism” — that’s how Industry and Advanced Technology Minister and Adnoc CEO Sultan Al Jaber framed Iranian threats to the Strait of Hormuz, speaking at CeraWeek, state news agency Wam reports. Al Jaber warned that weaponizing the waterway isn’t just a regional issue, but has an “exponential” human cost through disruptions to supply chains, food systems, and everyday costs around the world. “Energy security is not just a slogan,” he said, “it’s the difference between the lights on and lights off.”

Yesterday, UAE defense systems dealt with seven ballistic missiles fired by Iran, as well as 16 UAVs, Wam reports. Early in the morning, one Indian national sustained minor injuries from debris from an intercepted ballistic missile that landed in Abu Dhabi’s Shawamekh, Wam reports.

Oil + gas disruptions are not letting up

Adnoc Gas says shipping disruption in the Strait of Hormuz is forcing temporary tweaks to LNG and liquids output, with exports now managed shipment-by-shipment to keep deliveries on track, according to an ADX disclosure (pdf). The company, however, affirms the pipelines are still operational, with no impact on core processing despite debris falling near some facilities.

But the strain is showing: LNG output at Das Island is running at very low levels due to export constraints, despite the resumption of processing operations at Habshan complex following an attack last week, Bloomberg reports, citing people familiar with the matter. The LNG plant has not been fully shut to allow a quick restart, with supply supported in part by gas flows from Qatar via the Dolphin pipeline.

More than 40 oil and gas facilities across nine Middle Eastern countries have been severely damaged as the Iran war enters its fourth week, International Energy Agency (IEA) Executive Director Fatih Birol said. The conflict has created what the agency calls the largest supply shock in oil market history, rivaling the impact of the 1970s oil shocks and the 2022 gas crisis. The disruption extends beyond oil and gas, hitting petrochemicals, fertilizers, sulfur, and helium. LNG imports also dropped by some 20% since the war began.

The IEA is weighing another emergency oil release as the Middle East war continues to choke supply, with consultations underway with governments in Asia and Europe on whether more barrels need to be drawn from emergency reserves.

IN CONTEXT- Asia is bearing the brunt of the oil and gas supply shock, given its dependence not just on crude but also on products and other critical flows moving through Hormuz.

Logistics routes are seeing more threats…

The threats from Iran continued: Tehran warned it will move beyond a Hormuz blockade, saying it could mine the Gulf if its coasts or islands are attacked, Reuters quotes Iranian state media as saying.

This marks another potentially direct challenge to the UAE’s position as an open-access global hub. If the “floating mine” risk is deemed credible by the London ins. market, standard maritime cover could be withdrawn for ports north of the Fujairah-Khor Fakkan line — effectively redrawing the region’s commercial geography.

… but the region is being proactive with rerouting

Saudi Arabia and the UAE have opened up a new sea-land logistics corridor between Sharjah and Dammam, the Saudi Port Authority said in a post on X.

This follows another corridor that opened up between the UAE and Oman last week, allowing cargo diverted from exposed Gulf routes to start moving through Omani ports and airports before crossing overland into the UAE.

There’s more disruption in the skies

Air France’s Dubai flights are still on hold, extending its suspension as regional risk persists, Reuters reports. The airline has pushed back the restart of its Dubai routes until 31 March, along with routes to other regional airports.

Grant Thornton doubles down on UAE team with new appointments

Grant Thornton UAE is bulking up its senior bench, adding 10 new partners to its ranks, according to a press release. The professional services firm bolstered its expertise offering with more specialists across core business lines, including audit, advisory, financial due diligence, forensics, risk, and people advisory.

The new hires are a mix of internal promotions and external picks. The additions include Sameer Abdi (LinkedIn) as head of advisory, Richard Hills (LinkedIn) as head of risk innovation and digital forensics, and Anand Balasubramanian (LinkedIn) as head of risk and compliance advisory, all joining as partners.

Control locks in at Borouge, Talabat picks up rent, Rakbank and Network International finalize agreement

Ownership clicks into place on the Borouge build

Borouge Group International took control of Borouge, completing the acquisition of a 54% stake from Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) and 36% from Borealis, according to an ADX disclosure (pdf). This brings its total ownership to 90% following the fulfillment of regulatory conditions. The move locks in control ahead of the broader merger, which is on track to close before the end of the month.

REMEMBER- Adnoc and Austria’s OMV last year agreed to merge their polyolefins businesses into Borouge Group International, a c.USD 60 bn platform combining Borouge, Borealis, and Nova Chemicals. As we reported yesterday, the partners will begin operating and marketing output from Borouge 4 under an at-cost structure, expected to generate around USD 400 mn in net income over three years.

Talabat picks up the rent

Delivery platform Talabat is offering local F&B brands 100 rentfree cloud kitchen spaces in the UAE through September 2026, removing one of the biggest cost barriers to scaling delivery-first concepts, according to a press release. The program targets established homegrown brands with at least two years of operations and a minimum of 12 months of delivery activity.

Rakbank finalizes merchant arm sale to Network International

Rakbank wraps up merchant arm sale: The National Bank of Ras Al Khaimah (Rakbank) has wrapped up the sale of its merchant acquiring business to Network International for AED 551 mn, according to a press release (pdf). The business essentially acts as the middleman between merchants and banks, and the sale was first reported last November.

Inside the transaction: The financial impact of the transaction will be reflected in Rakbank’s 1Q 2026, and it is still waiting on regulatory approval. Network International will onboard the 5k merchants using the business into its wider system in phases over 6-8 months, and will also offer its payment solutions to Rakbank’s clients.

Bond market loses USD bns as war drags on

The damage to the international bond market from the regional war is starting to show, with USD 2.5 tn wiped off global bond values this month alone, Bloomberg reports. Government, corporate, and securitized debt have fallen from USD 77 tn at the end of last month to USD 74.4 tn currently. The usual safe haven has been experiencing a rout for some time now as the conflict continues to escalate.

Government debt is leading declines, with a Bloomberg index of sovereign securities falling 3.3% during the month, surpassing the decline in corporate bonds by 3.1%, the data shows.

The culprit? An uptick in inflation is expected to erode the value of returns on bonds, making them suddenly not so attractive to investors. The US Federal Reserve’s recent decision to hold interest rates steady, and subsequent forecasts of a hike later in the year, is likely to add fuel to the inflation-concern fire and see the bond sell-off continue for the time being.

IN CONTEXT- Predictions for inflation growth have skyrocketed on the back of the ongoing war between the US/Israel and Iran. Look no further than the jumps seen in oil prices as more and more energy infrastructure is taken out and the movement, or lack thereof, of shipments through the Strait of Hormuz remains sticky.

Similar situations around the world are hammering home the fact that the implications of this war are anything but regional, with the US, Japan, the UK, India, Australia, New Zealand, and South Korea all seeing an uptick in government bond yields as anticipation of higher inflation hits the market. In New Zealand, yields are at their highest in nearly a year, while over in Australia, certain bonds are seeing the highest yields since 2011.

The impact is most stark in markets that are the most reliant on energy imports, with the UK seeing a sell-off of government bonds wiping off GBP 108 bn in market value, the business information service reported elsewhere. That marks the worst month for bonds since the rout that preceded the ouster of Prime Minister Liz Truss in 2022.

The phenomenon seems to be yet another manifestation of stagflation. We recently reported on this unfortunate cocktail of stagnating economic growth and inflation rewriting the hedging rulebook — and it seems markets are already pricing in that sentiment, analysts say.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian-Pacific markets are up in early trading this morning, rebounding from losses seen a day earlier after statements from US President Donald Trump ignited hope that we’re nearing the end of the regional war. Over on Wall Street, futures are in the red after a trading day that saw all major indices jump over 1%.

	ADX	9,423	-1.6% (YTD: -5.7%)
	DFM	5,383	-3.0% (YTD: -11.0%)
	Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	4,367	-3.0% (YTD: +10.7%)
	USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
	EIBOR	3.5% o/n	3.8% 1 yr
	TASI	10,946	+0.6% (YTD: +4.3%)
	EGX30	47,612	+3.4% (YTD: +13.8%)
	S&P 500	6,581	+1.2% (YTD: -3.9%)
	FTSE 100	9,894	-0.2% (YTD: -0.4%)
	Euro Stoxx 50	5,574	+1.3% (YTD: -3.8%)
	Brent crude	USD 99.94	-10.9%
	Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.91	+0.5%
UP	Gold	USD 4,453	+0.3%
	BTC	USD 70,588	+4.0% (YTD: -19.4%)
	Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	AED 3.60	+1.4% (YTD: -4.0%)
	S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	149.15	-0.6% (YTD: -1.8%)
	VIX (Volatility Index)	26.15	-2.4% (YTD: +74.9%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The ADX fell 1.6% yesterday on turnover of AED 1.1 bn. The index is down 6.8% YTD.

In the green: Fertiglobe (+5.7%), ADNH Catering (+3.4%), and Apex Investments (+2.9%).

In the red: Americana Restaurants International (-5.0%), Pure Health Holding (-5.0%), and First Abu Dhabi Bank (-5.0%).

Over on the DFM, the index fell 3.0% on turnover of AED 1.0 bn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai is also down 3.0%.

CALENDAR

MARCH

31 March - 2 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Arab Media Summit, Dubai.

31 March-2 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Investopia, Abu Dhabi.

APRIL

6-9 April (Monday-Thursday): Dubai AI Week, Dubai.

7-8 April (Tuesday-Wednesday): Dubai AI Festival, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

7-9 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Health Summit, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

7-9 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Middle East Energy, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

13-15 April (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

13-15 April (Monday-Wednesday): The International Glass Manufacturing Show, Dubai.

14-16 April: (Tuesday-Thursday): International Property Show, Sheikh Zayed Rd, Dubai.

21-23 April (Tuesday-Thursday): UITP Public Transport Summit, Dubai.

28-29 April (Tuesday-Wednesday): Innovation Summit Middle East & Africa, Abu Dhabi.

29 April (Wednesday): Digital Transformation Summit, Sofitel, Abu Dhabi.

MAY

4-8 May (Wednesday-Saturday): Make It in the Emirates, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

8-24 May (Saturday-Sunday): Dubai Esports and Games Festival, Dubai.

11-13 May (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

11-15 May (Monday-Friday): Dubai Future Finance Week, Dubai.

12-14 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Airport Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

19-20 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Capital Market Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

19-22 May (Tuesday-Friday): Abu Dhabi Water and Energy Week, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

20-21 May (Wednesday-Thursday): Arab Competition Forum, Dubai.

JUNE

3-4 June (Wednesday-Thursday): Annual MENA Investor Conference, Ritz-Carlton DIFC, Dubai.

15 June - 15 September (Monday-Thursday): Dubai Mallathon, Dubai.

JULY

31 July (Friday): Large businesses achieving annual revenues equal to or above AED 50 mn must appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.

AUGUST

17-20 August (Monday-Thursday): Arabian Travel Market, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

SEPTEMBER

12-13 September (Saturday-Sunday): Emirates International Congress on AI & Visionary Leadership in Transforming Healthcare, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

OCTOBER

4-10 October (Sunday-Saturday): World Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

NOVEMBER

9-10 November (Monday-Tuesday): Annual government meetings, Abu Dhabi.

10-12 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Dubai International Electric Vehicle Exhibition & Conference, Dubai World Trade Center.

DECEMBER

2-4 December (Wednesday-Friday): UN Water Conference, UAE.

Signposted to happen in 2026:

Investopia Global Talks, Tashkent.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1 January: Deadline for large businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project;

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): World Governments Summit;
31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
21-22 April (Wednesday-Thursday): Token2049, Dubai;
1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing;
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2028:

Artificial Intelligence Summit.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai;
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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