UAE among the most well-positioned to weather the current crisis, experts say

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: US Energy Secretary begins his UAE visit + Emirati investors are in discussions to establish a Nigerian gold refinery

Good morning, lovely people. It’s getting quieter on the home front as global market jitters and whipsawing policy on tariffs from the US keeps everyone busy trying to digest what it means for their business.

The single M&A update we have this morning comes from the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, which sold its stake in Germany’s gas transmission operator Open Grid Europe.

BUT- We have plenty of analysis and insight into what’s at stake for debt and capital markets — as well as economic growth — in the wake of US tariffs from some of the smartest people we know. Let’s dive in.

☀️WEATHER- It’s slightly cooler today in Dubai, with the mercury peaking at 34°C in Dubai, before cooling to 24°C overnight, according to our favorite weather app. Over in Abu Dhabi, temperatures will reach 28°C before cooling to 23°C overnight.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- US Energy Secretary Chris Wright is visiting the UAE today as part of a two-week Middle East tour that will also take him to Saudi Arabia and Qatar, Reuters reports, citing a source close to the matter. Wright is set to visit Al Barakah Nuclear Power Plant during his visit, as well as discuss global supply of oil and the UAE’s investments in the US, according to the source.

REMEMBER- The UAE last month pledged a 10-year USD 1.4 tn investment framework in AI infrastructure, semiconductors, energy, and manufacturing, in the US.

#2- It’s the third day of the EFG Hermes One on One here in Dubai. The One on One is the largest investor conference focused on emerging markets — and it’s difficult to imagine a more opportune time for companies and equity investors to chew the fat than now: Global markets are roiling in the wake of US President Donald Trump’s bid to reshape the post-Second World War economic order. Fund managers representing more than 250 global institutions are gathering for the event to meet with top execs from 220 companies spanning 12 countries. Among the top UAE firms attending:

ADNOC Group (and its listed units)
Aldar Properties
Alef Education
Alpha Dhabi
Amanat
e&
Emaar Properties
FAB
Fertiglobe
Lulu
Lunate
Parkin
Pure Health
RAK Bank
Taaleem
Talabat

#3- The Geo-Spatial Week is underway in Dubai at the Mohammed bin Rashid Space Center, kicking off earlier this week and running until 11 April. The week-long event will welcome experts in photogrammetry, remote sensing, and spatial sciences.

#4- It’s the final day of the AIM Congress 2025 today at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center. The event brings together senior executives, government officials, and global investors to foster investment collaboration to drive global economic development. Attendees can expect forums, panel discussions, workshops, and a startup competition, Wam reports.

#5- Middle East Energy is on its third and final day at the Dubai World Trade Center. The exhibition and conference brings together industry leaders, and energy professionals to discuss the energy transition, sustainability practices, innovations in power generation, renewable energy, and energy efficiency.

#6- The World Local Production Forum is also finishing up at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center. The World Health Organization-backed three-day event is bringing together global leaders to discuss localized, sustainable, and diversified medicine production, and strategies to enhance access to quality assured health products.

#7- Today is the Fujairah Bunkering and Fuel Oil Forum’s (FUJCON 2025) final day at DoubleTree by Hilton Fujairah. Organized by S&P Global Commodity Insights, in collaboration with the Fujairah government, the Port of Fujairah, and the Fujairah Oil Industry Zone, the event will bring together energy leaders to discuss geopolitical and decarbonization impacts on shipping and bunkering, fuel quality, market trends, and technological advancements.

#8- AWS GenAI Loft Dubai 2025 is on its third day and runs through to Friday, 11 April at Dubai International Financial Centre’s (DIFC) Innovation One building. The five-day event will see industry startups, business leaders, investors, developers, and AI enthusiasts attend workshops and lectures on generative AI technologies and their practical applications across industries.

#9- The two-day World Crisis and Emergency Management Summit is on its second day in Abu Dhabi, state news agency Wam reports. Under the theme Together Towards Building Global Resilience, the event will bring together global leaders to discuss improving international cooperation in crisis management, emergency planning, and risk prediction. The event will also feature two exhibitions — Crisis Management Technologies and Generation Readiness — to showcase new sector-specific technological tools.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- UAE, GCC firms could be in for weaker margins on the back of Trump’s tariffs: While the GCC’s exposure to the impact of Trump’s tariffs is limited, analysts speaking to Zawya say volatility, weaker demand, and delayed investments to weigh on companies’ 2Q earnings performance, especially for those with supply chains linked to Asia.

What they said: “The uncertainty surrounding the tariffs and their potential impact on global trade could lead to continued market volatility over the next 2-3 months,” said Hamza Dweik, head of trading at Saxo Bank MENA. Analysts also flagged risk of economic instability and strain on fiscal budgets from falling oil prices, capital outflows, and tighter fiscal conditions if trade tensions persist.

Regional IPO activity may also slow amid market instability, Dweik said. Economic diversification projects reliant on oil revenues could also take a hit, Pepperstone’s Research Strategist Ahmad Assiri added.

#2- The UAE is considering appointing a special envoy to Iraq’s Kurdistan region, as UAE-Iraq trade hits USD 30 bn, Iraqi news outlet Shafaq reports, citing comments by Kurdistan President Nechirvan Barzani to reporters during a visit to Abu Dhabi which saw him discuss increasing Emirati investment and projects in Kurdistan and Iraq with UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

#3- Freedom International Group plans 2029 IPO, allocates USD 50 mn for UAE expansion: Investment firm Freedom International Group (FIG) is set to invest USD 50 mn in the UAE in 2025 and 2026 and pursue an initial public offering (IPO) in 2029, CEO Narek Sirakanyan told Khaleej Times. The firm recently established a Dubai office, and Sirakanyan cited Dubai’s economic ecosystem and strategic position as making it a good fit for a future public listing.

Also in the pipeline: The group will launch an AI-powered marketing platform for Dubai’s hospitality sector, deploy AI-driven health and wellness products, and partner with local fashion retailers on distributing its existing brands in regional markets.

#4- The UAE is expected to become the second-largest remittance corridor into India this year, Lulu Financial Holdings Managing Director Adeeb Ahamed told Khaleej Times. While India-bound remittances are rising, there is a growing focus on investments in stocks and real estate rather than paying for household support, as more Indian expats are eyeing financial stability and long-term settlement in the UAE, he said. Many are now opting to buy property in the Emirates and create passive income streams through Indian markets.

#5- Nigeria and Cameroon are seeking to deepen economic ties with the UAE, with a focus on attracting strategic investments in food security, infrastructure, and energy, Wam reports.

Zamfara State in Nigeria is in advanced talks with Emirati investors to establish a gold refinery, Abdulrahman Tumbido, a trade official from Zamfara State in Nigeria said. The country is also exploring developing transport infrastructure in partnership with specialized UAE firms and is seeking investment in agriculture, with an emphasis on using modern technology to improve productivity.

Cameroon is looking to attract UAE and GCC investors in renewable energy, waste management, housing, and food systems. Its investment agency flagged solar and wind as key areas of interest, along with low-cost housing and sanitation projects.

REMEMBER- The UAE is expected to finalize a trade agreement with Nigeria in 2025.

DATA POINTS-

#1- The Ajman Freezones Authority recorded a 15% y-o-y increase in both revenue and net income for 2024, driven by a 170% spike in new company registrations — the highest growth rate in recent years, Wam reports. The investment zone also saw its occupancy rate reach 97%.

#2- The UAE’s instant payment transactions reached 67.5 mn, valued at AED 225.4 bn in 2024, reflecting a 36.9% y-o-y increase in value, according to the Central Bank of the UAE’s annual report (pdf). The country’s funds transfer system processed 110 mn transactions worth AED 19.9 tn, while the direct debit system recorded 17.8 mn transactions valued at AED 106.9 bn.

PSAs-

#1- Abu Dhabi has rolled out new fines targeting property-related violations, the Department of Municipalities and Transport said on X. Residents and building owners can face fines for storing furniture, construction materials, or other items on rooftops and balconies in a way that affects the building’s appearance or risks public safety. Penalties start from AED 500 for a first offense, rising to AED 1k for a second, and AED 2k for repeat violations.

#2- ALSO- Building owners and contractors could be fined AED 10k for tampering with automatic fire suppression systems, including disconnecting, removing, or covering any components, the Abu Dhabi Civil Defence Authority warned on X. The rule applies to most buildings, including those under construction, but excludes standalone private homes.

#3- Pakistani nationals can now apply for five-year visas to the UAE, Khaleej Tim es reports, citing an announcement made by UAE Ambassador to Pakistan Hamad Obaid Al Zaabi following a meeting at the Governor House in Karachi.

Visa requirements: The new policy requires applicants to provide proof of round-trip tickets, property ownership or hotel bookings, and a down-payment of AED 3k.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

US President Donald Trump’s decision to follow through with his threat of a 104% tariff on Chinese goods is the single big story abroad across the global business pages — along with the market sell-off it triggered despite relative calm across markets earlier in the day.

The tariff, which reaches up to 120% for some goods, pushed stock losses to the USD 10 tn mark — with the S&P 500 experiencing a sharp swing after gaining some 4% earlier in the day, to end the day 1.6% down. The index is now down 18.9% — dangerously close to the 20% mark defining a bear market.

Wait, why had markets rallied earlier? Markets had reacted positively to signs that Trump is open to negotiations with some countries over the tariffs, with the administration scheduling talks with South Korea and Japan, and Italian Prime Minister Giorgia Meloni due to visit the US next week. (Bloomberg | Reuters | FT | WSJ)

AND- Oil prices also hit a fresh four-year low on the news, with Brent crude futures reaching USD 62.82 a barrel. (Reuters)

We have more on the escalating trade war — and the potential response from China — in Planet Finance, below.

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UAE among the most well-positioned in the region to weather the current crisis -EFG Hermes’ Ahmed Shams El Din

A weaker USD could spell good news for Dubai’s economy -EFG’s Shams El Din: As economists, analysts, investors, and portfolio and fund managers everywhere digest how the US’ new tariff regime and the ensuing global market turmoil will trickle down to countries here in the region, we sat down with EFG Hermes’ Head of Research Ahmed Shams El Din to give us his take on what might happen next.

The UAE is among the most well-positioned countries in the region in terms of weathering the crisis, Shams El Din told us on the sidelines of EFG Hermes’ annual One on One in Dubai. The Dubai economy, specifically, is much stronger in terms of regulation and diversification of the economy [than in previous crises], he added.

Dubai is not exposed to oil prices, he explained. The breakeven price for oil is around late USD 50s or early USD 60s, so the funding and fiscal side will remain resilient, he said. This means the UAE’s current and fiscal accounts are well-buffered, and the liquidity side is much stronger than in Saudi Arabia.

It is, however, among the most exposed to emerging market cycles. “If the USD really depreciates, this will give a boost to the Dubai economy,” he added.

What about Abu Dhabi? Abu Dhabi is working on restructuring its top-down financing model, and what we’re seeing with sovereign and quasi-sovereign entities is very positive, Shams El Din noted. The focus for the capital should now be on how to ensure that positivity and the increasingly important financial sector can reflect on equity, debt, and capital markets, he added.

THE BIGGER PICTURE-

Volatility is the name of the game for the foreseeable future: What we’ve learned from working in capital markets for years is markets are always correlated on the downside. What's happening will definitely reflect negatively on regional markets as we're seeing today [...] unless they reach a very fast resolution on the political side, but the volatility will continue.

The good news is: The region’s fundamentals are stronger this time around than in any previous crisis that we’ve come across, he said. If we’re talking about foreign reserves, the currency peg, and external balances, I think this region will prove to be one of the very few in emerging markets that still offer a lot of opportunities and a much better return on a risk-adjusted basis than others.

ADIA set to fully divest from OGE for EUR 920 mn

ADIA exits Germany’s Open Grid Europe: Infinity Investments — a wholly-owned subsidiary of Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (ADIA) — plans to divest its 24.99% stake in Vier Gas Holdings, the owner of German gas transmission operator Open Grid Europe (OGE), according to two separate statements (here, pdf and here, pdf). The move would mark the sovereign wealth fund’s full exit from OGE, one of Germany’s largest gas transmission system operators.

Who’s buying? The transaction, which is still pending regulatory approvals, will see Italy-listed energy infrastructure firm Snam buy the ADIA unit’s stake in OGE for EUR 920 mn.

Contingent agreement: Snam said it has also struck a share purchase agreement with Fluxys that will see it sell roughly 0.5% of OGE to Belgian natural gas transmission system operator Fluxys, which currently holds a 24.11% stake in the company, bringing both firms to near-equal ownership stakes.

UAE executives are more optimistic than their global peers -Arthur D. Little

UAE CEOs are showing higher-than-average confidence in the global economic outlook, as they double down on transformation initiatives across areas like workforce development, sustainability, and operational transformation, Wam reports, citing consultancy firm Arthur D. Little’s 2025 CEO Insights Survey (pdf). The survey studies insights from 309 CEOs of companies generating over USD 1 bn in revenue across key global industries and markets.

Confidence levels are at a multi-year high: 85% of UAE CEOs expect the global economy to improve over the next three to five years — up from 61% in 2024 — making them among the most optimistic globally. Productivity targets also exceed global norms, with UAE firms forecasting annual productivity gains of 8.8% over the next three years.

Strategy agility is becoming the norm: “UAE CEOs have translated confidence into bold action,” said Thomas Kuruvilla, Managing Partner of Arthur D. Little Middle East & India. 83% have revised or are revisiting their corporate strategies in response to geopolitical uncertainty or evolving growth dynamics, compared to 59% globally. “This is not short-term positioning but rather a long-term strategy for regional and global competitiveness,” Kuruvilla said.

Reskilling is now a clear boardroom priority: 60% of UAE CEOs cited a strong need to reskill their workforce — outpacing the global average of 49% — with a particular emphasis on digital transformation and adapting to AI-driven business models. Meanwhile, 1.8% of annual revenue has been earmarked for performance initiatives and boosting efficiency.

UAE executives are also looking increasingly to ESG integration: 30% said environmental, social, and governance (ESG) initiatives now take precedence over all other priorities — a sign that it’s no longer treated as a compliance exercise but rather embedded into core business and operational strategy as a driver of long-term value and competitiveness.

One quarter into 2025, what does the rest of the year have in store for the region’s debt and capital markets?

One quarter into 2025, the uncertainty most people cited at the beginning of the year is far from dissipating. As US President Donald Trump continues his trade war, upheaving markets and threatening rising inflation, markets are becoming less certain about the way forward for both fiscal and monetary policy. Interest rates look to be staying higher for longer, and it’s looking increasingly likely for trade wars to erupt as the US hikes tariffs on China and other countries under Trump’s rule.

Despite the expected headwinds, the Middle East region enters the year in a good place. Diversification is still the name of the game for the biggest economies in the GCC, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE both pushing ahead with major infrastructure projects and investments in the non-oil sector.

We spoke with Chiradeep Deb, Mashreq’s head of international banking, to get his insights into what’s in store for the region’s booming capital and debt markets against this backdrop of potential headwinds and global change. We also asked him about Mashreq’s goals for debt arrangements and more in the year ahead, his thoughts on AI in investment banking, and more. Edited excerpts from our conversation:

Enterprise: Do you see global headwinds like tariffs and escalating geopolitical tensions trickling down to affect regional markets?

Chiradeep: Despite the geopolitical tensions in the neighborhood, the region has held its own. Fund raising through capital markets and syndicated loans for regional borrowers are now at an all-time high. This augurs well for the banks in the region as they go about expanding their balance sheets. Eventually, the direction of oil prices is going to define how the region performs against the backdrop of global changes. A price of USD 70/80 or higher for oil is the most desirable place to be in.

On the downside, Trump’s new tariff policies [could be] inflationary in the short term and as a counter measures, rates will have to remain higher for longer. It could very well lead to the region dealing with recessionary trends in global markets towards the end of the year

If this were to happen, then this region is in for some level of real volatility, and the countries in particular who could potentially get affected are the likes of Bahrain and Egypt. Saudi Arabia, given its pipeline of gigaprojects, will be under some pressure as the break-even price heads towards the upper-80s.

The UAE, on the other hand, is very well managed. Dubai is no longer a levered story. Prudent financial management over the past decade has helped the debt to GDP ratio in the 120% during the global financial crisis to settle down to the 20-30% range.

I think the region remains quite resilient, with mostly bright pockets. There are a few countries and its wall of debt maturities to worry about, but in the grand scheme of things, we are better off than where we were in previous crises.

E: What are the biggest trends you expect to see in the region’s debt markets this year?

CD: Where in the past couple of years, new projects have been primarily driven by sovereigns and government-related entities due to limited capex spending for the private sector amid a higher interest rate environment, I expect this trend to start to reverse, with more private sector participation expected if interest rates start coming down.

2025 is probably not the year where you’ll see this fully coming through; you’ll have to wait another 12 or 18 months for a significant interest rate reduction.

What we’ve also seen is that capital markets have overtaken loan markets. Loan markets have been pretty flat in the last three or four years, despite the growth of the regional economy. This region has seen an encouraging number of high yield debt issuers accessing markets.

The influx of global asset managers setting up shops in the region is another encouraging development. They are not only looking at putting money in the UAE or Saudi Arabia. When they set up shop here, they’re looking at diversifying and looking at the region as a whole.

Private credit is the new buzz word in the region. Before 2025 comes to an end, [I think] we will see enhanced participation in this specific asset class. We will have some regional institutions setting up private credit funds dedicated for deployment in the larger region.

E: What new geographies is Mashreq pushing into this year?

We now cover more than 30 countries globally from a debt origination perspective. Some of the recent successes have been in Commonwealth Independent States and Central European countries. Over the last 12 to 18 months, we have closed more than USD 700 mn syndicated loan facilities for banks out of CIS. European banks have been going through a rough time in terms of risk appetite and return criteria, so these markets have been looking to diversify their lender pool.

We at Mashreq were the first from the Middle East to be involved in capital markets issuances for some of the big Uzbek and Kazakh banks and sovereigns, and we’ve also been met with success in Armenia, Azerbaijan, and Georgia. We always try to bring banks from frontier markets into the Middle Eastern liquidity pool, be it loans or capital markets.

We like to originate opportunities and bring them to other banks in the region and in our global distribution network. We are constantly in dialogue in order to share a part of the risk that we originate — this allows us to be in B or B- markets that we believe we should be present in on a long-term basis.

E: Are you a boomer or a doomer on AI? How is the team using it right now, and how do you see it being used in the future?

I am a big supporter of trying to work with AI in our daily work life. While it is not perfect to start with, some initiatives that we persisted with have helped us embed homegrown AI models into our distribution model. Our ability to target investors with high probability of conversion has helped us to drive up volumes. We have taken the volume to fourfold in three years….and that growth can largely be credited to AI.

Risk appetite of counterparties (i.e. risk participants) are constantly being monitored by the AI models. Within seconds, the model directs you to the price point at which they would be likely to buy a new asset, the likely maturity of deals, and arms you with information you need to formally reach out to them. That saves us the time and we use that to build relationships and have meaningful conversations with investors to expand the business.

E: What's the biggest opportunity for Mashreq in 2025 as a business?

The opportunity for Mashreq is to deepen its relevance with our client base. While most competing institutions are extending larger balance sheets on transactions, we believe Mashreq is different due to the continuous ideation. Our clients like us for the innovative solutions we offer. Our growth will come from mandates from newer markets as we anchor one country / region after the other.

The regional financial ecosystem of market participants is growing fast and banks like Mashreq by the very nature of the deals we undertake leave an imprint with the new practitioners moving to the region. Reaching out and striking agreements with financial sponsors, private credit, fixed income asset managers, and family offices are all part of that mix.

Ras Al Khaimah Tourism Authority taps new CCO + VP of strategy

The Ras Al Khaimah Tourism Development Authority has named Brent Anderson (LinkedIn) as its new chief commercial officer and Emil Petrov (LinkedIn) as vice president of strategy and insights, Wam reports.

Anderson brings three decades of tourism marketing experience, having previously served as regional general manager for South and Southeast Asia at Tourism Australia. Petrov, with 15 years in tourism and communications strategy, will lead long-term vision development and data capabilities.

Emirates president says aviation industry is in “uncharted territory” amid US tariffs, but the UAE carrier can ride the wave

US tariffs could hike costs for airlines worldwide and put the aviation industry in “uncharted territory,” Emirates President Tim Clark said in a CNBC interview (watch, runtime: 6:44). “It’s uncharted because it involves a measure of reset to a level that the global economy probably hasn’t seen since the financial crisis of 2008-2009,” Clark said, referring to growing pressures on carriers and aviation supply chain issues. In the short-term, demand might weaken slightly, though travel will remain resilient, he added.

Emirates, as one of the world’s largest international carriers, will feel the ripple effects, but it will be able to ride the wave thanks to its global reach and strong business model, Clark said.

ALSO- Dubai-based instant messaging platform Telegram is back in the international news, after it was slapped with a RUB 7 mn fine (c. USD 80k) by Moscow’s Tagansky District Court for not removing content it says promoted terrorist attacks, pro-Ukrainian actions, and calls for anti-government protests, Russian state news agency TASS reports. The story was also picked up by Reuters.

ADIB rolls out fractional sukuk for retail investors

BANKING-

#1- Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank (ADIB) has rolled out a digital platform for retail investors to buy fractional sukuk certificates starting with as little as USD 1k, as opposed to the traditional USD 200k entry barrier, according to a press release. The platform is accessible via ADIB’s mobile app, and offers fully digital onboarding, trading, and the management of fractional sukuk with no lock-in periods. Investors receive income distributions tied to underlying assets and access to curated sukuk options.

ICYMI- Sukuk issuances in the emirates doubl ed q-o-q in 1 Q 2025 to reach USD 4.9 bn, with the shariah-compliant bonds representing a fifth of total outstanding debt in the. Emirates Islamic debuted the region’s first fractional sukuk in April last year, allowing investors to access the market with a minimum investment requirement of USD 25k.

STARTUPS-

#1- Pakistani startup Haball raises USD 52 mn to fuel expansion to UAE and GCC: Pakistan’s supply chain fintech SME-focused company Haball raised USD 52 mn in pre-series A funding to drive its expansion into the GCC, including by entering the UAE market in either 2025 or 2026, CEO Omer Bin Ahsan told EnterpriseAM UAE in response to emailed questions.

Regional expansion: The funding will also help the startup expand its local footprint, Haball said in a press release (pdf). The firm’s priority is establishing a presence in Saudi Arabia before entering the UAE market, and it is looking to form banking partnerships and to onboard customers to solidify its foothold in the region, Bin Ahsan told us.

FMCG sector in focus: The company’s first target market in the UAE and GCC will be fast-moving consumer goods (FMCG). Haball’s digital shariah-complaint supply chain financing solution will be its unique selling point in a market where it sees high demand, Bin Ahsan added.

Rentify lands USD 500k in pre-seed funding: Proptech startup Rentify secured USD 500k in pre-seed funding from an undisclosed consortium of investors to scale its AI powered rental platform, which aims to upgrade manual processes like cheque payments and paper-based agreements, according to a press release.

Where will the funds go? The money will be used to expand its automated rent collection, rent now, pay later options, and rewards programs to incentivize timely payments. The platform integrates digital lease agreements, AI verification for tenants and landlords, and real-time payment alerts. The startup also aims to add predictive analytics for landlords, and counts ex-CEO of Emaar Development Bader Hareb and Rotschild & Co Partner Saeed Al Awar among its advisors.

FINTECH-

Tap Payments secures UAE license: Payment institution and technology provider Tap Payments has received a retail payment services license (RPS) from the Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE), meaning it now has regulatory approval in all six GCC nations, according to a press release.

The next steps: Tap will use its GCC-wide approvals to integrate payment infrastructure across the region, helping businesses scale up operations and expand. It counts flydubai, Wego, and Lulu Hypermarkets among its Emirati clients, and its regional customers include Talabat and Careem.

#2- Plus500 launches subsidiary following new mainland license: Global multi-asset fintech and LSE-listed firm Plus500 has obtained a UAE mainland license from the Securities and Commodities Exchange (SCA), enabling direct client operations under its new entity Plus500 Gulf Securities, according to a press release. Last year, it received regulatory approval to operate in the Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) through its subsidiary, Plus500AE.

What’s next? The approval means Plus500 can grow its Emirati customer base and expand its offering beyond contracts for differences (CFD) to share dealing, futures, and options on futures. The firm will launch tailored products for UAE investors.

CAPITAL MARKETS-

IHC’s new capital markets arm Finstreet has partnered with Anglo-South African asset management business Ninety One to develop advanced exchange-traded products, Wam reports. The collaboration will focus on creating and trading structured products and private debt instruments on Finstreet Global Market, while providing Ninety One with liquidity for its private debt solutions, including infrastructure debt, Ninety One’s Co-Head of the Middle East, Nicolas Alberts said.

REMEMBER- Finstreet launched its blockchain-powered digital trading platform in December, which includes a digital multilateral trading facility (MTF), offering secondary market trading for securities listed on other exchanges; a central securities depository to hold assets in custody; and a private financing platform, allowing for trading in private markets.

FINANCE-

Aquila Group expands to Abu Dhabi, eyes energy and data investments: Germany-based investment firm Aquila Group is setting up shop in Abu Dhabi with the launch of a subsidiary, Aquila Capital Middle East, after receiving preliminary approval from ADGM, according to a statement (pdf). The company, which manages assets worth EUR 15.4 bn (c. USD 16.9 bn), says the subsidiary will focus on investing capital in Middle Eastern projects, including data centers and renewable energy initiatives.

CONSTRUCTION-

Majid Al Futtaim has awarded homegrown Ducto Construction an AED 1.6 bn contract for the Serenity Mansions project, a luxury development at its flagship destination Tilal Al Ghaf in Dubai, according to a press release. The project will see the construction of 109 standalone mansions as well as outbuildings, landscaping and infrastructure. SAOTA, Nabil Gholam, and Blink Design Group will collaborate on the buildings’ designs.

ICYMI- The conglomerate awarded construction contracts for projects in its Tilal Al Ghaf development worth AED 3 bn to Innovo Build and Unec last year.

INVESTMENTS-

UAE and UNCTAD to advance sustainable investment policy reform: The UAE Investment Ministry and UN Trade and Development (UNCTAD) signed a cooperation agreement to work on sustainable investment frameworks and economic growth strategies, according to a press release. The agreement, focusing on areas including joint research, knowledge sharing, and advisory support, would “attract high-impact investments” to the Emirates, Investment Ministry Undersecretary Mohammad Alhawi said.

AI-

UAE-based AI language and translation solutions firm Tarjama launched Pronoia V2, an advanced Arabic-focused large language model that outperforms global LLMs like GPT-4o and DeepSeek-V3 in accuracy, language performance, and cost-efficiency, according to the press release. The model excels in tasks such as Arabic translation, contract review, content creation, multilingual support, and document processing.

What’s next? The company is currently developing Pronoia Vv32, which is expected to have an 80% average across Arabic evaluation datasets and a 94+ COMET score for translation quality.

China braces for a “fight to the end” against US tariffs

Trade war escalates with no end in sight: We seem to be heading to a long war of attrition between the world’s biggest two economies, after China’s commerce ministry vowed to “fight to the end” against what it labeled as “unilateral bullying” by the US. Beijing is already deploying a number of monetary and fiscal measures to absorb tariff shocks, with little signs that the crisis will be resolved any time soon.

IN CONTEXT- The Trump administration announced yesterday it will move forward with an additional 50% tariff on Chinese goods, bringing average tariffs on Beijing’s exports to over 120%. The combined tax includes the existing 20% tariffs over fentanyl trafficking accusations and the more recent 34% unilateral tariffs, as well as pre-existing 20% tariffs from before Trump’s second term.

The Chinese government allowed the CNY to depreciate on Monday in a bid to improve export competitiveness, fixing the rate against the USD at an 18-month low of just below CNY 7.20. Beijing will likely move forward with gradual depreciation rather than sudden currency moves to avoid destabilizing its economy, Barclays Asia Cross-Asset Strategy Head Kaanhari Singh told the Financial Times.

Other fiscal measures could include increased subsidies and export tax rebates to support affected industries. While such measures carry the risk of exacerbating industrial overcapacity and fueling deflationary pressures, the risk may be worth it for Beijing who “does not view the US measures as conducive to creating the right atmosphere for negotiations,” Bo Zhengyuan, Partner at Plenum, told Reuters.

State-owned companies are also pledging to increase share purchases and engage in stock buybacks, in a bid to stabilize the stock market which saw a 7% drop on Monday’s session, before paring back some of the losses yesterday.

Tariffs could push China to seek alternative markets, potentially deepening trade ties with the EU and other developing nations in a bid to mitigate some of the impact. Beijing was Washington’s second largest source of imports last year, logging USD 439 bn in Chinese imports, while US exports to China reached USD 144 bn.

BUT- Not everyone inflicted with tariffs is in a confrontational mood, and traditional alliances might end up prevailing. The EU is exploring ways to resolve the conflict with confidence that “sooner or later, we will sit at the negotiation table with the US and find a mutually acceptable compromise,” EU Trade Commissioner Marcos Sefcovic said yesterday.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

It’s a mixed morning for Asian markets, with Japan’s Nikkei down 2.7%, while Shanghai Composite remains unchanged. Meanwhile, Wall Street futures indicate more losses on market open, after the S&P 500 dropped 12% over the last four days.

ADX	8,989	+0.5% (YTD: -4.6%)
DFM	4,890	+1.9% (YTD: -5.2%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	3,864	+1.0% (YTD: -7.2%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	4.2% o/n	4.0% 1 yr
TASI	11,303	+1.0% (YTD: -6.1%)
EGX30	30,649	+0.6% (YTD: +3.1%)
S&P 500	4,983	-1.6% (YTD: -15.3%)
FTSE 100	7,911	+2.7% (YTD: -3.2%)
Euro Stoxx 50	4,774	+2.5% (YTD: -2.5%)
Brent crude	USD 62.82	-2.2%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.48	+0.4%
Gold	USD 2997.60	+0.3%
BTC	USD 76,750.20	-4.0% (YTD: -18.0%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The ADX rose 0.5% yesterday on turnover of AED 1.5 bn. The index is down 4.6% YTD.

In the green: Abu Dhabi Ship Building Co. (+7.7%), Adnoc Drilling (+7.5%) and Alpha Dhabi Holding (+5.9%).

In the red: AL Khaleej Investment (-9.9%), Emirates Ins. Co. (-8.8%) and Abu Dhabi National Takaful Co. (-7.7%).

Over on the DFM, the index rose 1.9% on turnover of AED 765.7 mn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was up 1%.

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

#1- Publicly listed property developer RAK Properties appointed Arqaam Securities as its liquidity provider for shares traded on the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange (ADX), according to a press release (pdf). Arqaam Securities will maintain two-way price quotes within a structured mandate and publish research on the company.

The details: The agreement aims to reduce bid-ask spreads, improve price discovery for shares, and increase market participation from institutional and retail investors. Arqaam’s ownership in the company will not exceed 5% of listed shares and foreign ownership in RAK Properties remains capped at 49%.

#2- Borouge approves USD 1.3 bn dividend payout and share buyback ahead of merger launch: Borouge shareholders has greenlit a final dividend payout of USD 650 mn for 2024, bringing total dividends for the year to USD 1.3 bn, according to a press release (pdf).

The vote came alongside approval of a 2.5% share buyback program, which it initially proposed last month, as the company prepares for the USD 60 bn merger with Borealis and Nova Chemicals. The buyback will be conducted through open-market transactions, with execution subject to market conditions and regulatory approval.

The new polyolefins producer will trigger higher payouts post-merger, with annual dividends of USD 2.2 bn, or 16.2 fils per share, expected, according to the disclosure. It also said the company is aiming for a 90% net income payout ratio until 2030 as well as inclusion in MSCI indices.

#3- ADNH Catering has approved the board’s recommendation to distribute AED 60 mn in dividends for FY 2024 — equivalent to 26.6% of the company’s share capital, or 2.7 fils per share — during its annual general assembly meeting, according to an ADX disclosure (pdf).

#4- Orient Ins. approved the distribution of AED 400 mn in dividends for 2024, equivalent to 80% of its share capital, according to a DFM disclosure (pdf). The proposal was initially put forward by the board of directors during their meeting last month.

The UAE inks trade agreement with Congo + deepens its strategic ties with India and Turkey

The UAE signed a trade and economic agreement with Congo yesterday, eliminating 99.5% of tariffs on UAE exports and 98% of tariffs on Congolese exports over a period of five years, state news agency Wam reports. The agreement aims to more than double non-oil trade between the countries to USD 7.2 bn by 2032. The UAE and Congo had wrapped talks earlier in December 2023.

The agreement marks the fifth with an African nation, after reaching agreements with Mauritius, Kenya, the Central African Republic, and Morocco.

UAE, India reaffirm strategic partnership: Dubai Crown Prince Sheikh Hamdan bin Mohammed met with Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi in New Delhi on Tuesday during his first official visit to India, according to a statement. Both sides are looking to deepen ties in trade, AI, space, energy, food security, and tourism, Sheikh Hamdan said. He also met with Indian Defence Minister Rajnath Singh to explore cooperation in defence and military partnerships.

Expanding bilateral trade and investment was also discussed at the Dubai-India Business Forum in Mumbai yesterday, Wam reports. India ranks first in the number of foreign firms established in Dubai, as bilateral non-oil trade between Dubai and India surpassed AED 240 bn in 2024, a 20.5% y-o-y increase, following the signing of the trade and economic partnership agreement in 2022, Wam reported elsewhere.

PLUS- State Minister Shakhboot bin Nahyan Al Nahyan met with Turkish Deputy Foreign Minister Burhanettin Duran in Abu Dhabi for consultations on joint efforts to support development, stability, and prosperity across Africa on Monday, according to a Foreign Affairs Ministry statement. The two sides also discussed coordination on sustainable development and investment in African nations.

UAE-Turkey trade cooperation: Foreign Trade Minister Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi also met with his Turkish counterpart Ömer Bolat for the second session of the Joint Economic and Trade Commission, Wam reports. The two sides discussed further collaboration in trade, finance, investment, technology, green economy, and halal accreditation, with Bolat noting that Turkish firms have delivered projects worth USD 17.7 bn in the UAE. The meetings also included the inaugural session of the UAE-Turkey CEPA Joint Committee and a high-level business roundtable to explore investment opportunities and address issues with trade implementation.

AND- UAE and Armenia discuss strengthening relations: President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan met with Armenia’s President Vahagn Khachaturyan to discuss enhancing bilateral cooperation, particularly in the economic and investment sectors, Wam reports.

CALENDAR

APRIL

6-11 April (Sunday-Friday): Geo-Spatial Week, Dubai.

7-10 April (Monday-Thursday) : EFG Hermes One on One conference, Dubai.

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Investment Summit, Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center.

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): Middle East Energy, Dubai World Trade Center.

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): World Local Production Forum, Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center.

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): The Fujairah International Bunkering and Fuel Oil Forum, DoubleTree by Hilton Fujairah.

7-11 April (Monday-Friday): AWS GenAI Loft Dubai 2025, Dubai International Financial Centre (DIFC) Innovation One.

8-9 April (Tuesday-Wednesday): World Crisis and Emergency Management Summit, Abu Dhabi.

11-13 April (Friday-Sunday): I-Film Festival, Yas Creative Hub, Abu Dhabi.

12-13 April (Saturday-Sunday): Global Justice, Love & Peace Summit, Dubai Exhibition Centre, Expo City Dubai.

14-16 April (Monday-Wednesday): Dubai Woodshow, Dubai World Trade Center

14-16 April (Monday-Wednesday): IPS congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

14-26 April (Monday-Saturday): Solana Economic Zone, Dubai.

17 April (Thursday): Commvault’s Shift Roadshow event, Dubai’s Museum of The Future.

15-17 April (Tuesday-Thursday): The Abu Dhabi Global Health Week, Adnec center, Abu Dhabi.

15 April (Tuesday): The Global Islamic FinTech Forum, Dusit Thani Hotel, Dubai.

15 April (Tuesday): G42 to acquire USD 335 mn worth of shares in Cerebras.

16-17 April (Wednesday-Thursday): The FastBull Finance Summit, Coca Cola Arena, Dubai.

16-18 April (Wednesday-Friday): World Future Energy Summit,Abu Dhabi National Exhibition, Abu Dhabi.

21-23 April (Monday-Wednesday): The Electric Vehicle (EV) Innovation Summit, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

21-25 April (Monday-Friday): The Dubai AI Week, Museum of the Future and Area 2071, Emirates Towers, Dubai.

22-24 April (Tuesday-Thursday): DOMOTEX Middle East, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

22-24 April (Tuesday-Thursday): The International Conference on Education Quality,General Directorate of Identity and Foreigners Affairs Office, Dubai.

23-24 April (Wednesday-Thursday): Dubai AI Festival, Dubai International Financial Center.

25 April-11 May (Friday-Sunday): Dubai Esports and Games Festival, Dubai World Trade Center.

25 April (Friday): The Indian Business and Professionals Council’s (IBPC) Annual Conference, Dubai.

28 April-1 May (Monday-Thursday): The Arabian Travel Market, Dubai World Trade Center

28 April-2 May (Monday-Friday): The International Federation of Air Traffic Controllers' Associations (IFATCA) conference, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

28 April-2 May (Monday-Friday): The Annual Conference of the International Federation of Air Traffic Controllers’ Associations (IFATCA)

29 April (Monday): Deadline to send comments and feedback on the FSRA proposal.

Signposted to happen sometime in April:

Abu Dhabi Autonomous Racing League, Yas Marina Circuit in Abu Dhabi

MAY

5-6 May (Monday-Tuesday): The Governance of Emerging Technologies Summit (GETS 2025), St. Regis Saadiyat Island Resort, Abu Dhabi.

6-7 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Global Ports Forum, Dubai.

6-7 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

6-8 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Airport Show, Dubai World Trade Centre.

13-16 May (Tuesday-Friday): International Union for Health Promotion and Education Conference, Abu Dhabi.

13-14 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): The Annual HR Tech MENA, Dubai.

13-15 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Cabsat Middle East and Satellite Middle East, Dubai World Trade Center.

15 May (Thursday-Sunday): The Economy Middle East Summit, ADGM, Abu Dhabi.

15 May (Thursday): Dewa tender for pumping stations bids deadline.

15-18 May (Thursday-Sunday): The GLA Global Logistics Conference, Grand Hyatt Dubai.

16-18 May (Friday-Sunday): GISEC, Dubai World Trade Center.

19-22 May (Monday-Thursday): Make it in the Emirates, Adnec, Abu Dhabi.

20 May (Tuesday): Dubai Business Forum, Hamburg, Germany.

20-21 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): The International Real Estate Investment Summit (IREIS 2025), Al Hamra International Exhibition and Conference Centre in Ras Al Khaimah.

20-22 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Seamless Middle East, Dubai World Trade Center.

23-25 May (Friday-Sunday): EuroLeague Final Four, Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi.

26-28 May (Monday-Wednesday): Arab Media Summit, World Trade Center, Dubai.

27-29 May (Tuesday-Thursday): INDEX, Workspace, and The Hotel Show, Dubai World Trade Center.

30 May (Friday): Arafat Day.

31 May-2 June (Saturday-Monday): Eid Al Adha.

JUNE

17-18 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

24-25 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): Middle East Rail, Dubai World Trade Center.

27 June (Friday): Islamic New Year.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2H 2025:

Closing of XRG's acquisition of Covestro

JULY

6-7 July (Sunday-Monday): BRICS Summit, Rio de Janeiro.

29-30 July (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

SEPTEMBER

8-10 September (Monday-Wednesday): DigiHealth exhibition, World Trade Center, Dubai.

12-14 September (Friday-Sunday): The International Real Estate and Investment Show, Abu Dhabi.

16-17 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

24-25 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Mohammed Bin Rashid Leadership Forum, Mohammed Bin Rashid Center for Leadership Development, Dubai.

OCTOBER

3-16 October (Friday-Thursday): Dubai Home Festival.

7-9 October (Tuesday-Thursday): The International Symposium on the System of Radiological Protection, the Ritz-Carlton Abu Dhabi, Grand Canal.

9-15 October (Thursday-Wednesday): IUCN World Conservation Congress, Abu Dhabi.

27-29 October (Monday-Wednesday): Future Hospitality Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

27-29 October (Monday-Wednesday): Asia Pacific Cities Summit, Dubai Exhibition Center.

28-29 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

NOVEMBER

15-17 November (Saturday-Monday): Myplant & Garden Middle East Green Expo, Dubai Exhibition Centre, Expo City.

17-21 November (Monday-Friday): Dubai Airshow 2025, Al Maktoum International Airport, Dubai.

18-19 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Dubai Future Forum, Museum of the Future, Dubai.

DECEMBER

1-3 December (Monday-Wednesday): Eid Al Etihad (UAE National Day).

1-5 December (Monday-Friday): The World Congress of Neurosurgery, Dubai World Trade Center.

8-9 December (Monday-Tuesday): BTC Mena Conference, Adnec, Abu Dhabi.

8-10 December (Monday-Wednesday): BRIDGE media summit, Abu Dhabi.

9-10 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2025:

The Middle East Electric Vehicle Show, Expo Center Sharjah.
e& will complete Adnoc’s private 5G network.
Executive Committee Meeting (EXCOM 2025) conference of the World Smart Sustainable Cities Organisation (WeGO)
The International Civil Aviation Organization’s Global Implementation Support Symposium, Abu Dhabi.
Universal Postal Congress 2025, Dubai.

Signposted to happen sometime in the fall of 2025:

2025 Games of the Future, Dubai.
ICOM General Conference 2025, Dubai

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

3-5 February (Tuesday-Thursday): The World Governments Summit.
12-15 February (Thursday-Sunday): The Society for Incentive Travel Excellence Global Conference, Abu Dhabi.
11-13 May (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center.
The UAE to host the Arab Competition Forum
Dubai to host the Arab Actuarial Conference
United Nations Water Conference 2026, UAE
9-11 January (Friday-Sunday): 1 Bn Followers Summit’s fourth edition, UAE

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime between 2027 and 2029:

The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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