Trade pacts with Nigeria, Philippines locked in

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: UAE is evaluating impacts of a potential 25% tariff from the US + Canada trade talks are set to begin next month

Good morning, friends, and happy hump day. The big theme of the day is trade, with not one, but two trade agreements inked with the Philippines and Nigeria yesterday, trade talks with Canada set to kick off soon, and Foreign Trade Minister Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi saying the UAE is “evaluating” the potential impacts of a 25% tariff on the UAE due to its trade relations with Iran.

We also have more details on the UAE’s projects market last year, which saw a decline but remains the GCC’s largest projects market, with a massive USD 491.2 bn pipeline.

PLUS- A new Islamic digital banking venture, founded by Botim Founder Abdallah Abu Sheikh, just raised the region’s largest seed round yet, with a USD 250 mn investment led by private equity outfit BlueFive Capital.

Happening today

Turkish Foreign Affairs Minister Hakan Fidan is heading for the UAE today, according to a statement. The agenda for the visit has not been made public, but Turkey has reportedly been stepping up diplomacy with Iran as deadly protests continue, along with the US ambassador to Turkey, in recent days.

Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week kicked off earlier this week and runs until Thursday, 15 January at the Adnec Center, bringing together global leaders to discuss sustainability action across interconnected systems. Heads of state including the Philippines’ Ferdinand Marcos Jr, South Africa’s Cyril Ramaphosa, and Nigeria’s Bola Tinubu are among those expected to attend.

The week’s program includes:

The World Future Energy Summit, which started yesterday and runs until Thursday;
The ADSW Dialogues and Wiser Forum, which kicked off Sunday and run through to Thursday;
The Global South Utilities Forum, taking place today;
The Global Climate Finance Center Annual Meeting and Green Hydrogen Summit, which close the week on Thursday.

Other conferences happening this week:

Industrial trade show SteelFab runs through Thursday at the Expo Center Sharjah;
The Dubai International Project Management Forum also runs through Thursday in Dubai;
Fespa Middle East runs until Thursday at the Dubai Exhibition Center.

WEATHER- The mercury is set to peak at 26°C in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, with Dubai seeing an overnight low of 18°C, and the capital seeing a low of 15°C.

Watch this space

TRADE — The UAE (and China) could have a lot to lose from US President Donald Trump’s threats for a 25% tariff on countries doing business with Iran. The UAE is Iran’s second biggest trading partner, with some USD 16.1 bn in trade taking place between the two countries in 2024, Bloomberg reports, citing IMF data. It’s also a major re-export hub for Iran, with the Economy and Tourism Ministry data (pdf) showing that UAE-Iran non-oil trade reached USD 6.6 bn in 2024. Trump’s claimed the tariff would “ take effect immediately,” though he has yet to clarify which countries (and goods) would be affected.

The UAE has so far gotten away almost scot-free from Trump’s tariff wars last year, with just a 10% tariff slapped on most UAE imports, though it’s subject to the 25% tariff on the US’ steel imports from all countries.

Foreign Trade Minister Thani Bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi said the government is “evaluating” the possible impacts of the 25% tariff. “We have to evaluate what are the consequences of disturbing the supply of many of the products and commodities that come from Iran,” Gulf News quotes Al Zeyoudi as saying at Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week.

In brighter trade news, the UAE and Canada are set to start talks over a trade agreement next month, Canadian Trade Minister Maninder Sidhu told Reuters. This comes as the two countries have strengthened relations recently, with the UAE set to pour some USD 50 bn in investments in the country.

Canada is particularly interested in attracting investments in liquefied natural gas, and Adnoc has been eyeing Canadian natural gas projects, Sidhu said.

MACRO — The World Bank has reaffirmed its forecast for the UAE’s GDP growth this year at 5%, while its forecast for 2027 was revised marginally upwards to 5.1%, in its latest Global Economic Prospects report (pdf). We’ll dive into the broader forecast for the region and what could be behind the forecast in tomorrow’s issue.

PORTS — DP World’s Berbera Port operations remain stable: Dubai’s DP World confirmed today in a statement to Reuters that its operations at Somaliland’s Berbera Port are unaffected by Somalia’s recent decision to break ties with the UAE. Somaliland also refuted in a statement Somalia's claims of authority over agreements related to Berbera Port — reaffirming the breakaway region’s sovereign hold over the port. The logistics giant holds a 65% stake in the port.

REMEMBER- Somalia’s government said yesterday it was annulling all of its contracts with the UAE for ports, defense, and security, over what its Council of Ministers said were “actions undermining [its] national security.”

ENERGY — IHC is still in the running for Lukoil’s assets: Abu Dhabi’s International Holding Company (IHC), private equity firm Carlyle, and a consortium including Chevron and Quantum Capital Group are competing for the global assets of Russian oil firm Lukoil, as a US deadline to divest the portfolio to avoid further sanctions expires this week, sources told Reuters.

Background: The US imposed sanctions on Lukoil and Rosneft last October and gave Lukoil until 17 January to sell its international assets, valued at around USD 22 bn. Its portfolio spans oilfields in Iraq, Azerbaijan, and Kazakhstan, alongside refineries and fuel retail networks in Europe and the US. Sanctions, banking constraints, and Iraq’s nationalization of the West Qurna 2 oilfield have all disrupted Lukoil’s operations recently.

This isn’t the first news of IHC interest. The holding company was reportedly interested in snapping up the assets at the end of last year, after an agreement from Lukoil to sell it to Swiss commodity trader Gunvor fell through following US fears of its ties to Russia. Around the same time, Adnoc was also reported to be among several companies assessing acquiring parts of the portfolio, with a particular focus on its natural gas operations in Uzbekistan.

Where we’re at: Lukoil has reportedly been in talks with investors since November but a deadline could be extended if an agreement isn’t reached before Saturday, and the US’ options include handing out individual licenses to buyers as well, sources added.

RENEWABLES — Masdar’s clean energy capacity reaches 65 GW: Abu Dhabi-backed Masdar’s global clean energy capacity has hit 65 GW, more than halfway to the 100 GW target earmarked for the end of the decade, Chairman Sultan Al Jaber said at Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week on Tuesday. Masdar’s capacity jumped 27.5% y-o-y, up from 51 GW by the end of 2024.

Why it matters: Masdar has moved well beyond its early focus on domestic solar projects; it is buying regulated grids and entire operating platforms. The 14 GW added in the last year alone wasn't driven by scattered bits, but by a massive capital deployment into assets like Greece’s Terna Energy and its partnership with Iberdrola on the EUR 5.2 bn East Anglia Three offshore wind farm.

BANKING — Commercial Bank International (CBI) is closing down its Islamic window after receiving approval from the Central Bank of the UAE’s Higher Shariah Authority to wind down the unit, according to an ADX disclosure (pdf). CBI said the closure will be implemented gradually, with no material impact on operations or customers. A reason for the closure wasn’t stated.

PSA

DXB’s parking bottlenecks are about to ease with Salik’s E-Wallet payment system: Visitors to DXB will be able to use Salik’s E-Wallet system to pay for parking at the airport’s car parks starting 22 January, following an agreement between Dubai Airports and the Dubai toll operator, according to a DFM disclosure (pdf). The two inked a 10-year partnership for the airport, which welcomed 24.2 mn passengers in 3Q 2025.

Where exactly? The digital payment solution will be rolled out across 7.4k parking spaces at Terminals 1, 2, 3, and Cargo Mega Terminal.

The big story abroad

Two big business stories are making the rounds this morning: US-based luxury retailer Saks plans to file for bankruptcy, but is finalizing a USD 1.75 bn financing agreement that would keep its stores open. Plus: Netflix is considering turning its takeover bid for Warner Bros into an all-cash offer, a move that would help solidify it as the stronger suitor after Paramount Skydance (along with Gulf investors and Larry Ellison) made an all-cash, USD 108.4 bn hostile takeover bid for the company.

Meanwhile, US President Donald Trump has ramped up his threats of US interference in Iran, telling protesters that “help is on its way” on Truth Social. White House officials have been meeting to discuss the situation in Iran, where the death toll has reached 2k, according to the US-based Human Rights Activists News Agency.

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UAE locks in trade agreements with Nigeria, Philippines

The UAE has inked two trade agreements as part of its push to lock in favorable terms across Asia and Africa, deepening economic ties with Nigeria and the Philippines on the sidelines of Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week.

Machinery, EVs, chemicals, and more targeted in Nigeria’s pact

The UAE and Nigeria have signed a trade and economic partnership agreement — also known as a CEPA — aimed at accelerating trade and investment flows, with a focus on technology, energy, agriculture, and precious metals, state news agency Wam reports. The agreement will cut tariffs, remove trade barriers, and expand private and public-sector cooperation.

The relationship is already sizable: Bilateral non-oil trade reached USD 4.3 bn in 2024, up 55.3% compared to the year before, and hit USD 3.1 bn in 9M 2025, underscoring Nigeria’s growing weight in Abu Dhabi’s Africa-focused trade strategy.

The products in focus: The agreement is set to immediately wipe out tariffs for 7k Nigerian products, including chemicals, pharma products, and cotton, while machinery, electrics, and vehicles will be able to be imported without a levy within five years, according to Nigerian news agency Nan.

Ease of doing business: Execs hailing from Nigeria can stay in the UAE for renewable three-year periods, and nationals on business can stay for as many as 90 days per year.

Philippines’ exports to UAE could rise 9% following trade pact

The UAE has also signed a trade and economic partnership agreement with the Philippines, targeting cooperation in electrical equipment, financial services, agriculture, and precious metals, while easing tariff and non-tariff barriers, Wam reports.

What’s in it for the UAE? The pact is set to lift UAE GDP by USD 2.4 bn by 2032, with bilateral trade already nearing USD 1.8 bn in 2024, according to the Philippine Information Agency. Preliminary estimates suggest the agreement could boost Philippine exports to the UAE by 9.1% — as the UAE ranks 18th among the archipelago’s trading partners and absorbs around 39% of its Middle East-bound exports.

The two countries also have significant energy relations: Masdar entered the Philippine market with plans to develop up to 1 GW of solar, wind, and battery storage capacity by 2030, with scope to scale to 10 GW by 2035. The USD 15 bn program supports the Philippines’ energy transition targets of 35% renewable power by 2030 and 50% by 2040.

More than trade

Both agreements were signed during Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week, where UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan met Philippine President Ferdinand Marcos Jr and Nigerian President Bola Tinubu to discuss expanding cooperation across trade, development, and renewable energy.

Bigger picture

The twin agreements feed into Abu Dhabi’s CEPA program, which targets USD 1.1 tn in non-oil foreign trade by 2031, with Asia and Africa firmly in focus. As we’ve previously reported, the UAE has already inked trade pacts with the likes of India, Malaysia, Angola, Vietnam, Indonesia, and Turkey, with agreements with South Korea and Thailand nearing the finish line.

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UAE projects slip but pockets of growth keep it ahead of other GCC markets

Total contract awards in the UAE fell 14.5% y-o-y to USD 88.2 bn in 2025, down from USD 103.2 bn in 2024 — yet the Emirates overtook Saudi Arabia as the GCC’s largest projects market, rising to a 41.3% share of total regional awards from 23.9% in 2024, according to Kamco Invest’s GCC Projects Market Update (pdf).

Behind the dip: Five of the eight tracked sectors saw a decline, with dips from heavily-weighted sectors like construction pulling overall results down, while weaker oil prices capped funds available for new projects.

On the upside, the clean energy sector remained a bright spot, seeing growth through new projects.

Construction remained the UAE’s largest sector at USD 44.9 bn, despite dipping 15.4% y-o-y. Power and chemicals bucked the broader trend, as power surged 97.8% y-o-y to USD 11.1 bn, while chemicals more than tripled to USD 4.4 bn. Key projects included the USD 2 bn chemical cluster at Ruwais Industrial City by T’aziz and Modon awarding a USD 272 mn contract to Trojan for the Maysan residential development.

Zooming out

Contract awards in the GCC overall fell 32% y-o-y. Across the Gulf, total project awards dropped to USD 213.4 bn, down from USD 314 bn in 2024, led by steep declines in Saudi Arabia, as project awards halved to USD 83.4 bn on the back of slumps in the chemical, power, construction, and gas sectors. Kuwait saw a 16.2% uptick, Qatar a more modest 4.0% increase, while Oman’s awards dropped 51.0% and Bahrain logged a 54.9% downturn.

Subdued oil prices averaging USD 63.1 / bbl weighed on GCC spending, despite Opec+ phasing out their production cuts. The last two years had seen record capital expenditure from GCC countries, particularly in hydrocarbon investments.

Contract awards in 4Q 2025 were at a 13-year low for quarterly results as all GCC nations saw a decline. Emirati contracts were down 44.5% y-o-y to USD 17.4 bn, and Saudi Arabia saw a 68% dip to USD 15 bn.

Looking ahead

GCC project activity is expected to rebound, supported by stabilizing oil prices, ongoing diversification drives from non-oil activity, economic expansion across the GCC, and USD 1.9 tn worth of projects in the pre-execution pipeline, according to Kamco Invest. Recovery may be moderated if crude prices remain subdued, but overall regional momentum is forecast to improve.

In our pipeline, construction is once again set to dominate, with USD 274.6 bn worth of projects in the pre-execution phase, followed by transport with USD 71.1 bn, and power with USD 30.9 mn. The UAE’s total pipeline currently stands at USD 491.2 bn.

ICYMI- According to Meed Projects data from last week, contract awards in the UAE fell 15% in 2025 to USD 87.7 bn, though Dubai’s real estate sector and hydrocarbon investment in Abu Dhabi helped avert a larger dip. Saudi Arabia’s awards plunged 50% to USD 84.5 bn amid delays in giga projects and lower spending on power and hydrocarbons, and wider GCC contracts were down by a third.

Botim founder’s new fintech venture Mal raises the largest seed round the region has seen thus far

UAE startups continue to roll out mega rounds in 2026: An Abu Dhabi-based AI-powered Islamic digital bank that just came out of stealth mode has closed a USD 230 mn seed round, led by Abu Dhabi-based BlueFive Capital, according to a press release. The investment in Mal marks the largest of its kind in the MENA region.

Where will the funds go? The capital will help the startup get off the ground and accelerate product development along with licensing and regulatory approvals. The startup, founded by Abdallah Abu Sheikh (LinkedIn), who also founded Astra Tech and was previously CEO at Botim, is set to launch as a banking platform this year and is looking to fill a gap with underbanked customer segments. It’s looking to roll out its services in phases, with the focus on the UAE first, before it decides to scale into other regional and Asian markets.

Alongside Abu Sheikh, the team includes several executives with leadership experience at Revolut and Brazilian neobank Nubank, the statement said.

Our take

The seed round comes as megarounds continue to rise in volume in the UAE, both across later-stage mega-transactions and earlier-stage, non-mega transactions. UAE-based XPanceo’s USD 250 mn Series A round and Airalo’s USD 220 mn Series C ranked third and fourth among the largest EVM transactions by funding in 2025.

It also comes as fintech maintains its position as the most popular sector for funding in the region. The sector took the lead in terms of funding last year, accounting for nearly a third of the region’s total funding.

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Mashreq is killing the three-year audit cycle with new AI audit platform

For decades, the internal audit function at major banks has operated on a predictable, three-to-five-year cycle. It was built as a reactive, manual process of studying the past to ensure compliance. The role of the auditor was to spot compliance gaps, usually in retrospect, and align priorities with and flag issues to the board.

This role was developed at a time when banks mostly operated through brick-and-mortar branches. Banks that are now scaling their digital presence have to contend with a much broader suite of risks, and the retroactive approach is nowhere near sufficient anymore, Group Chief Internal Audit Officer at Mashreq Hassan Ali told EnterpriseAM in an interview.

With a wider digital footprint, risks are more immediate, and a digital failure or glitch could mean a significant disruption to operations, Hassan added.

The solution is to become more agile and proactive, and the big elephant in the room that will help make that happen? AI. Mashreq has been on an aggressive AI rollout across its groups and services, from its client-facing platforms to internal operations like financial reporting, and is now bringing this rollout to its internal audit department, building an in-house platform that uses AI agents to track data in real-time, Hassan explained.

“The audit function is at a crossroads right now,” Hassan said, adding that some leaders of internal audit are skeptical about the impact of AI on their industry. “I would call this the confusion stage — many are skeptical about whether it's going to work, some are waiting for somebody to do something and playing it safe,” he added. Hassan is in another category — optimistic about the potential benefits AI can have for auditing as a function.

The new platform will start producing results within the next 12 to 18 months as part of a broader five-year rollout plan, Hassan told us. The platform will deploy advanced AI-enabled solutions and risk intelligence that can provide insights and predictive analysis for what's coming ahead, Hassan said.

“The way and scale at which we are planning to deploy this, I don't think has been done anywhere globally,” he explained. Specific use cases are being deployed across some internal audit functions, but Mashreq is going full scale — the platform aims to bake traditional audit methodologies into the platform, which can then integrate into systems across the banks’ departments to capture data in real time, analyze it using specific AI prompts, and the data analysis and risk assessment will happen on the spot rather than over several years, he explained.

Where does that leave the internal auditor?

Hassan is direct about what this means for the workforce. Within five years, the role of a traditional internal auditor at Mashreq will be unrecognizable. “If we’ve learned one thing from history, it is that machines always win,” Hassan says, explaining that the internal auditor role must become geared towards overseeing AI agents, rather than perform manual processes at their desks.

Their role will be to ensure AI is not operating in a black box and that there’s explainability, meaning the AI platform’s process can be re-performed and it will arrive at the same result, he explained.

This upskilling process is already happening within Mashreq’s internal audit department, which Hassan likened to an “AI audit academy” that aims to reskill auditors and prepare them for the transformation of their roles.

The glue that ties all of this together? Governance

When asked what’s the one thing that has the potential to uproot corporate resilience and result in corporate failures, Hassan pointed to failures in governance and oversight. “Governance is the most important thing. Sometimes we just have to go back to the drawing board,” he said.

“it's very important that there is very clear strategic alignment between the board, executive management, and operating management,” he explained. The board defines the overall strategy, executive management drives it, and the operating management implement it — there has to be a loop and that loop must include clear accountability and transparency, he explained.

Internal audit’s role within this framework is as an enabler and provider of either assurance or advice — or what we call foresight, he added.

Next stop: Commercialization?

Mashreq’s history of building proprietary tech often leads to commercial outlets. While the internal audit AI platform is currently being built for internal operations, the bank is considering how it might eventually offer this technology to the wider market, Hassan said.

Fuze appoints chief strategist and venture officer, and a new market lead at Wyndham

Fuze taps former PwC lead as CSVO: Dubai-based blockchain infrastructure provider Fuze appointed Serena Sebastiani (LinkedIn) as the firm’s new group chief strategist and venture officer (CSVO), according to a post on LinkedIn and press release. Sebastiani’s 15 years of experience in the financial services sector includes a tenure as virtual assets consulting lead at PwC Middle East. She has also co-chaired the MENA Fintech Association’s Digital Assets Committee and advised on the establishment of the Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority.

Wyndham taps new MEA lead: American hotel franchisor Wyndham Hotels & Resorts has appointed Mohamad Haj Hassan (LinkedIn) as market managing director for the Middle East and Africa, according to a press release. He will oversee regional strategy, development, and operations as Wyndham accelerates expansion across the UAE, Saudi Arabia, Egypt, and wider Africa.

Meet the appointee: Hassan steps up from Wyndham’s Saudi Arabia business and brings more than two decades of regional hospitality experience, including senior roles at Accor and Rotana.

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Edge plants flag in Europe, FAB taps T. Powe Rice for investments, Zoho rolls out data centers, and NMDC expands in the onshore market

Edge plants flag in Europe

Europe wants defense made at home, and Edge Group is stepping in. The Abu Dhabi defense conglomerate has agreed with Spanish information technology company Indra Group to set up a new defense manufacturing entity in Spain, targeting loitering munitions and smart weapons for Spanish and wider European defense programs, according to a statement.

What we know: Production would be anchored in León at a new Indra-developed facility, with an initial EUR 15-20 mn investment, also from Indra, subject to board approvals. The planned platform is backed by an estimated EUR 2 bn multi-year order pipeline.

FAB taps T. Rowe Price to deepen investment offering

First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) has partnered with US asset manager T. Rowe Price to expand the range of investment solutions it offers its private banking and institutional clients, according to a press release. This will include supply equity, fixed-income, alternatives, and multi-asset strategies.

FAB’s been expanding its use of global asset management partnerships. Just a month ago, the bank also tapped Amundi, Europe’s largest asset manager, to broaden its investment offering across client segments.

Zoho Corporation brings its data centers to the UAE

Zoho rolls out two UAE data centers: India-based software solutions company Zoho Corporation rolled out its first UAE-based data centers in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, as it moves ahead with the AED 100 mn investment it had earmarked for the UAE, according to a press release.

The details: The new facilities will host over 100 solutions from the company’s flagship brands — Zoho for cloud solutions, and ManageEngine for IT management. The data centers secured certification to provide cloud services to government, semi-government entities, and businesses.

We’re getting lots and lots of data centers: Back in November, tech giant Microsoft announced plans to invest over USD 7.9 bn in data centers in the UAE — in the grander scheme of a USD 15.2 bn investment plan spanning 2023-2029. The Emirates already saw USD 7.3 bn in investments from the firm, with state-owned AI firm G42 and Microsoft partnering to add 200 MW to its data center capacity.

Flooss Bahrain receives credit facilities from Shorooq

Shorooq finances USD 22 mn credit facility to Flooss Bahrain: Abu Dhabi-based venture capital firm Shorooq structured a USD 22 mn credit facility for Flooss Bahrain, a shariah-compliant digital consumer finance platform, according to a press release. Flooss has disbursed over USD 100 mn to date through its buy now, pay later and device-financing services.

Where is this money going? The funds will go toward expanding its shariah-compliant lending portfolio, scaling up its AI-based services — which use open banking and alternative data — developing new domestic products, and tapping into new markets, with the firm eyeing Saudi Arabia in particular.

NMDC Infra + CCC team up on onshore EPC in the Emirates

NMDC Infra — the infrastructure arm of NMDC Group — and international contracting firm Consolidated Contractors Co. (CCC) have established NMDCCC, a new entity focused on onshore engineering, procurement, and construction (EPC) for oil and gas projects in the UAE, according to a disclosure (pdf). Operating as an NMDC Infra subsidiary, the venture will deliver full-lifecycle EPC services, focusing on executing NMDC’s backlog and mitigating supply chain risks by expanding the group’s onshore EPC capabilities.

We knew this was coming: In 1Q 2025, the two companies signed an initial agreement to establish the new entity, holding a 50% stake each, according to NMDC’s earnings release (pdf) for the quarter. At the time, NMDC said the new firm would be headquartered in Abu Dhabi, with its remit spanning refineries, plants, ports, bridges, roads, and industrial zones. It also said it would support project implementation for national oil companies.

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Corporates drive GCC debt to records as sovereigns tap the brakes

GCC fixed income hit a record USD 207.1 bn in 2025, fueled primarily by private sector issuances, according to data from Kamco Invest (pdf). The record is just 0.1% above the previous all-time high set in 2024, but the composition of debt issuers changed significantly between the two years. Sovereign borrowing in the GCC actually fell by more than 20% y-o-y in 2025, but that dip was offset by a sharp rise in private sector issuances.

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Behind the sovereign issuance drop: Total bond issuance across the GCC rose 18% y-o-y to USD 125.4 bn last year, but sukuk issuances fell 18.8% y-o-y to USD 81.7 bn during the year. Saudi Arabia, the region's heavyweight, slashed its sovereign sukuk issuance from USD 48.6 bn in 2024 to just USD 10.5 bn in 2025.

The split: The GCC fixed income issuer market moved closer to a 55% sovereign, 45% corporate split. In Saudi Arabia, corporate sukuk issuance rose to USD 31.7 bn in 2025 from USD 21.0 bn the year before.

Kuwait and Egypt were the outliers

While the UAE saw bond issuances drop by USD 5.6 bn to USD 44.4 bn, other regional players went on a borrowing spree. Kuwait saw the most dramatic spike, with bond issuances jumping to USD 17.6 bn in 2025 from just USD 800 mn the year prior. Saudi Arabia ramped up bond issuance by some 30.8% to USD 40.1 bn, even as its sukuk issuances fell 39.4% y-o-y. Egypt also tapped the market aggressively, with bond issuances rising more to USD 30.7 bn.

Despite Egypt’s increased activity, total bond issuance from non-GCC MENA countries declined overall in 2025.

What to expect in 2026: Cheaper money and deficit financing

Kamco expects issuances to remain “elevated” this year, supported by expectations that GCC will cut interest rates in line with the US Federal Reserve. Kamco estimates that around USD 85.4 bn of issuance in 2026 will be driven by maturity refinancing, with a further USD 60 bn linked to deficit financing, even as headline fiscal gaps narrow.

Expect Saudi Arabia and Kuwait to lead sovereign issuance volumes as they fund projected budget deficits. Saudi Arabia’s overall financing needs are projected to drop significantly to USD 58 bn in 2026, down from USD 107 bn in 2025. The Kingdom has already tested investor appetite early, raising USD 11.5 bn in the first week of 2026 after attracting more than USD 29 bn in orders — eventually pricing inside initial spread guidance.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Stronger expectations of a snap election in Japan pushed the Nikkei to fresh highs, with the index up 1.6% in early trading. Other Asia-Pacific markets are also broadly in the green, with the exception of South Korea’s Kospi, which is just below the flatline. Wall Street futures are also marginally in the red this morning, after financial stocks pulled the S&P 500, Dow Jones, and Nasdaq back from this week’s records. Investors will be keeping an eye out for more earnings results today from Bank of America, Wells Fargo, and Citigroup.

ADX	10,090	+0.8% (YTD: +1.0%)
DFM	6,139	+0.8% (YTD: +4.5%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	5,025	+1.5% (YTD: +2.8%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	3.5% o/n	3.6% 1 yr
Tadawul	10,894	+1.4% (YTD: +3.8%)
EGX30	43,684	+0.7% (YTD: +4.4%)
S&P 500	6,964	-0.2% (YTD: +1.7%)
FTSE 100	10,137	0.0% (YTD: +2.1%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,030	+0.2% (YTD: +4.1%)
Brent crude	USD 65.47	+2.5%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.39	-0.8%
Gold	USD 4,613	+0.3%
BTC	USD 95,423	+4.3% (YTD: +9.0%)
Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	AED 3.74	-1.3% (YTD: -0.3%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	151.60	-0.1% (YTD: -0.2%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	15.98	+5.7% (YTD: +6.9%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The ADX rose 0.8% yesterday on turnover of AED 1.5 bn. The index is up 1.0% YTD.

In the green: E7 Group Warrants (+14.7%), Gulf Cement Co. (+4.3%), and Orascom Construction (+4.2%).

In the red: Bank of Sharjah (-2.2%), Alpha Dhabi Holding (-1.7%), and Pure Health Holding (-1.6%).

Over on the DFM, the index rose 0.8% on turnover of AED 1.0 bn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was up 1.5%.

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Alpha Dhabi Holding has approved a three-year dividend policy committing to AED 2 bn in annual distributions starting FY 2025, with a 5% yearly increase, subject to net income availability and statutory reserve requirements, according to a disclosure (pdf).

Shareholders have also authorized a share buyback program of up to AED 1 bn, capped at 10% of issued share capital, valid until 31 December 2026 following Securities and Commodities Authority approval. The company then has two years to resell the repurchased shares, which would result in a share capital reduction, per the disclosure.

CALENDAR

JANUARY

11-15 January (Sunday-Thursday): Abu Dhabi Sustainability Week, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

11-15 January (Sunday-Thursday): ADSW Dialogues, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

11-15 January (Sunday-Thursday): WiSER Forum, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

12-15 January (Monday-Thursday): Dubai International Project Management Forum, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

12-15 January (Monday-Thursday): SteelFab, Expo Center, Sharjah.

13-15 January (Tuesday-Thursday): World Future Energy Summit, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

13-15 January (Tuesday-Thursday): FESPA Middle East, Dubai Exhibition Center, Dubai.

14 January (Wednesday): Global South Utilities Forum, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

15 January (Thursday): Global Climate Finance Center Annual Meeting, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

15 January (Thursday): Green Hydrogen Summit, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

21-24 January (Wednesday-Saturday): Acres Real Estate Exhibition, Expo Center, Sharjah.

28-29 January (Wednesday-Thursday): IBA Arbitration Day Conference, Abu Dhabi.

28-30 January (Wednesday-Friday): World Customs Organization Technology Conference, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

31 January - 7 February (Saturday-Saturday): Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open, International Tennis Center, Zayed Sports City.

FEBRUARY

3-5 February (Tuesday-Thursday): The World Governments Summit, Dubai.

4-5 February (Wednesday-Thursday): PropTech Connect Middle East, Grand Hyatt Dubai.

4-6 February (Wednesday-Friday): Arab Actuarial Conference, Millennium Plaza Downtown Hotel, Dubai.

12-15 February (Thursday-Sunday): The Society for Incentive Travel Excellence Global Conference, Abu Dhabi.

9-12 February (Monday-Friday): World Health Expo (WHX), Dubai.

10-11 February (Tuesday-Wednesday): Top Advisors and Investors Summit, Abu Dhabi.

MARCH

31 March - 2 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Arab Media Summit, Dubai.

26-28 March (Thursday-Saturday): Social Capital Conference, Dubai.

28-29 March (Saturday-Sunday): Emirates International Congress on AI & Visionary Leadership in Transforming Healthcare, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

30 March - 2 April (Monday-Thursday): IAAPA Middle East Exhibition and Conference, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

APRIL

7-9 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Health Summit, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

13-15 April (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

13-15 April (Monday-Wednesday): The International Glass Manufacturing Show, Dubai.

14-16 April: (Tuesday-Thursday): the International Property Show, Sheikh Zayed Rd, Dubai.

21-23 April (Tuesday-Thursday): UITP Public Transport Summit, Dubai.

MAY

11-15 May (Monday-Friday): Dubai Future Finance Week, Dubai.

11-13 May (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center.

19-20 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Capital Market Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

19-22 May (Tuesday-Friday): Abu Dhabi Water and Energy Week, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

JUNE

15 June-15 September (Monday-Thursday): Dubai Mallathon, Dubai.

JULY

31 July (Friday): Large businesses achieving annual revenues equal to or above AED 50 mn must appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

DECEMBER

2-4 December (Wednesday-Friday): UN Water Conference, UAE.

Signposted to happen in 2026:

The UAE to host the Arab Competition Forum;
Investopia Global Talks, Tashkent.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1 January: Deadline for large businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project;
31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing;
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai;
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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