Good morning, lovely people. The Ramadan news slowdown has been real, with very few major stories to take note of this morning.

The biggest one in today’s issue: We look at the potential repercussions of the US’ threat to hike global tariffs to 15%, up from 10%, on the UAE. The consensus among economists? The impact will be limited and will mostly be indirect — much like the scenario was for the 10% tariff last year. Plus: Expect the UAE to continue to bang the diversification drum with more trade and economic partnership agreements — also known as Cepas — and to look towards Asia, Africa, and the rest of the GCC.

ALSO: New data out on Dubai’s office market in 2025 show that prices and rents continued to climb by double digits, as supply remained scarce and demand continued to rise.

WEATHER- Temperatures are rising once again, peaking at 31°C in both Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Dubai will see an overnight low of 19°C, and the capital will see a low of 17°C.

Watch this space

INVESTMENT — Abu Dhabi to build “Dubai of Africa” in Western Sahara: The UAE is set to develop a part of Western Sahara’s southernmost Atlantic coastal strip into a tourist destination, according to Moroccan local media. La Güera, which was once a fishing port, is located within the disputed territory claimed by Morocco.

The details: The project aims to convert the once deserted region into a maritime and tourism hub, featuring a yacht marina, residential complexes, and retail centers. It will be billed as the “Dubai of Africa” and comes as Morocco is developing the USD 1 bn Dakhla Port, also in the Western Sahara region, which it aims to serve as a gateway to the Atlantic for Sahel countries.

Who’s involved? Both Abu Dhabi and Rabat will work on the project under an investment partnership framework. The development is set to be backed by Emirati capital, with a UAE firm carrying out construction works.

IN CONTEXT- The project comes amid growing economic cooperation between the UAE and Morocco. In May 2025, the two inked a USD 14 bn investment agreement to develop water and energy infrastructure projects in Morocco. In Western Sahara specifically, the UAE was the first Arab country to establish a consulate in the region’s largest city, Laayoune. Three major UAE firms were also in discussions to develop USD 10 bn worth of wind projects in Western Sahara last year.

More recently, tensions have surfaced with Morocco’s neighbor and long-time backer of autonomous rule for Western Sahara, Algeria, with the North African country recently halting its 2013 air services agreement with the UAE.

CAPITAL MARKETS — Alpha Dhabi and PureHealth are set to exit the FTSE Global Standard Index from 23 March, according to the index provider’s latest review (pdf). Both firms were excluded from the large-cap segment after failing FTSE’s liquidity screen, which typically triggers significant passive outflows as funds tracking the benchmark are forced to sell.

The mid-cap shift: Newly-listed Talabat was also demoted from large-cap to mid-cap, while Githa Holding — which was recently folded into the AED 120 bn 2PointZero-Multiply group — was demoted to micro-cap status.

It wasn’t all exits for Abu Dhabi, but the winners were smaller. Sharjah Islamic Bank secured a spot in the small-cap segment, and Shuaa Capital and Abu Dhabi Ship Building were added to the micro-cap list. However, in a sign of broader liquidity struggles, logistics player Aramex was demoted to micro-cap. Meanwhile, GFH Financial Group is exiting the UAE index entirely as FTSE re-assigns its nationality to Kuwait.

DISPUTE WATCH — Al Habtoor taps lawyers for Lebanon arbitration case: Dubai-headquartered Al Habtoor Group appointed White & Case to represent it in its investment dispute with Lebanon, with the group adding it is in the final stages of preparing to commence arbitration in Washington, DC, according to a press release.

The group said it will pursue claims under the investment treaty between the UAE and Lebanon, following the expiry of the treaty-mandated six-month cooling-off period and what is described as the absence of corrective action or a settlement proposal from Lebanese authorities. The group said it is still open to “serious and structured” settlement initiatives that restore its rights and compensate for damages.

The backstory: Earlier this year, Al Habtoor said it was pursuing court action against Lebanese authorities over USD 1.7 bn in losses tied to its investments. The group said its assets suffered “severe and sustained harm” due to measures imposed by Lebanese authorities and Banque du Liban, which it said blocked access to its deposited funds, as well as the failure to impose a formal law on capital controls for banks.

An investment rollback: Al Habtoor had already scrapped planned investments in Lebanon last year, moved to sell its holdings, and shelved other projects. Another previously mooted large investment was contingent on forming a “strong and independent” government, a condition which the group said was unmet.

AI — Abu Dhabi’s AI firm G42 is developing a new framework “to secure the export, deployment, and stewardship” of advanced US AI chips used within its systems, ensuring they meet strict export and safety standards. This aims to establish a template for other nations aligned with the Pax Silica coalition and demonstrate that US AI infrastructure can be used without compromising control.

Building AI trust with Pax Silica: The UAE officially became a “trusted partner” of the US technology ecosystem last month after signing onto Pax Silica, which positions itself as a framework designed to secure the supply chains underpinning AI. The US-UAE partnership manifested in an agreement to institutionalize the flow of capital into critical minerals earlier this month.

PSA

We’re poised to get a four-day long weekend for Eid Al Fitr this year, with the private sector off from Thursday, 19 March through Saturday, 21 March, while the public sector will remain off through Sunday, according to the UAE Media Office. Those in the private sector who work Sundays could get that off too if Ramadan turns out to be 30 days rather than 29. That will be decided once the moon sighting takes place at the end of the holy month.

Finance firms, the CBUAE has some AI guardrails for you: The Central Bank of the UAE issued a guidancenote (pdf) setting out how licensed financial institutions must deploy AI and machine learning. The move aims to protect consumers while keeping pace with digital transformation, the regulator said in a statement (pdf).

The guidelines include board-level AI governance, annual bias testing and continuous monitoring, transparency about AI usage, risk-calibrated human oversight, strong data privacy and security controls, and maintained AI inventories with risk ratings. The guidelines also stipulate due diligence on third-party providers and the ability to halt models where needed, alongside clear consumer rights to human review, challenge decisions, and access redress.

Who’s affected: The non-binding, principles-based framework applies across the supervisory ecosystem, with boards and senior management on the hook for AI outcomes. That accountability is particularly critical in high-stakes decisions such as loan approvals or ins. claims, the note reads.

Our take: Regulators across different sectors are increasingly integrating AI guidelines to stop misuse. As we’ve previously reported, ADGM courts sanctioned lawyers for filing fabricated judicial citations — a first-of-its-kind national ruling making it clear that liability stays human. At the time, Ahmed Tony of Matouk Bassiouny told us it would serve as “an important reference for courts and regulators across the UAE and the region” — a prediction now coming into effect as finance gets its own version of that message.

The big story abroad

The massive tech selloff is once again making waves in the global press. IBM is the latest victim of the AI scare, ending yesterday down 13.2% — its most drastic dip in 25 years — after Anthropic claimed its Claude Code offering could automate much of the work done by solutions currently provided by the tech giant.

The “sell first and ask questions later” trend was exacerbated in part by a bearish report from an obscure firm called Citrini Research, whose hypothetical scenario predicted a serious threat posed by AI advancement to food delivery services and credit card companies. Other disconcerting predictions made by the report included mass unemployment for white-collar workers.

Keeping investors spooked are comments made by Franklin Templeton Investments CEO Jenny Johnson, who told the Financial Times, “you really have to question if enterprise software companies can thrive” in light of new AI models.

CLOSER TO HOME- Stablecoin for Gaza? The Gaza Board of Peace is looking to roll out a stablecoin in Gaza, allowing Palestinians in the strip to transact digitally, the Financial Times reports, citing five people it says are familiar with the discussions. The proposed currency is expected to be pegged to the USD and will not become a new Palestinian currency, the sources said.

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