Good morning, friends. We’ve now passed the 12-day mark for this war, making this officially longer than the 12-day war between Iran and Israel in June.
It’s been quieter from where we are here in Dubai, though not without the occasional reports of drones and debris from interceptions falling on buildings and the safety alerts. A mix of people who have left the city as part of evacuation measures and others who left for their hometowns ahead of Eid has left it much calmer than normal, but a sense of normalcy can still be felt in most parts of Dubai.
Not one of those parts: DIFC. As far as we know, many offices are still working from home — and are likely to extend that through till after Eid.
THE BIG STORY for the day? A rather stark warning from Goldman Sachs for the UAE’s economy, which it said could contract by 5% if the war lasts through to the end of April. This would be a major flip of the script from earlier forecasts of it being the fastest growing economy in the Gulf this year. We dive into why it sees our economy being hit particularly hard in the news well, below.
Meanwhile, the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority is keeping busy, with its latest transaction being a final sale of Galderma as part of a consortium, Bloomberg reports. Plus: A new private equity firm still plans to raise capital for its fund in the coming weeks despite everything, and event planners are starting to delay events to later this year (or even next year) as uncertainty over when the war ends curtails earlier plans.
PSAs
You might want to think twice before sharing or reposting videos of material related to Iranian attacks: 20 people were charged under cybercrime laws, with one British man charged due to officials finding a video of an Iranian missile strike on his phone, the Guardian reports. The government has been strongly urging residents not to share posts related to attacks or fires in the UAE and to only trust official sources for such information. To their credit, they frequently share updates when fires or strikes are detected and dealt with.
Stuck outside of the UAE with an expired residency? You have until the end of the month to make it back: The Federal Authority for Identity, Citizenship, Customs and Ports Security issued a temporary measure allowing expats with expired residency permits to re-enter the UAE until 31 March, according to a statement on X. The directive is intended to accommodate individuals who were unable to return before their visas’ expiration date due to flight cancellations caused by the regional conflict.
WEATHER- It’s a warm day today, with Dubai and Abu Dhabi seeing a high of 32°C and a low of lows ranging between 21-22°C.
Dubai’s packed events calendar might not be as packed for a while
Regional calendar suspended: The Iran war has started triggering a wave of delays of regional events, with global organizers like the International Association of Amusement Parks and Attractions and UK-based Informa putting upcoming events on hold as they closely monitor ongoing developments.
The International Association of Amusement Parks and Attractions is pushing its Expo Middle East to next year, according to a press release. It’ll now take place from 12 to 15 April 2027 rather than at the end of this March as originally planned in Abu Dhabi.
London-based Informa is delaying events across more than 10 brands in the Middle East to later in the year, Reuters reports. The locations, however, are staying the same, the group’s CEO Stephen Carter told the newswire. The company is expected to absorb the rescheduling costs associated with these shifts. Events hosted in Dubai are expected to roll out in September, while events in Saudi Arabia remain listed for April, according to the group’s event listings on its Informa Markets website.
Informa is pretty tied up in the region: A key region for market growth, the British group receives a quarter of the revenues from its India, Middle East, and Africa division, with around 40% of this already secured for this year. The group rolled out a joint venture with Dubai World Trade Center last March, and was reportedly eyeing an IPO of the JV for 4Q 2025, but no update has been given since.
Watch this space
SUPPLY CHAINS — Local produce is getting a bigger seat at the table: The UAE launched a new Sustainable Product Initiative aimed at lifting the share of locally sourced agricultural and animal products used across hotels and restaurants to 25%, according to an official statement.
The details: Six agreements between the National Agriculture Centre and hospitality players are meant to pull more UAE-grown produce into supply chains. The signatories include hotel operators and food distributors — though the commercial terms stayed under the cloche.
The timing is hard to miss: As we noted in a recent story, the UAE still imports 80-90% of its food, leaving it exposed as war disruption puts freight routes and fertilizer markets under pressure.
But the ministry is presenting it differently: Officials framed the initiative as a way to “[bridge] the marketing gap faced by farmers,” providing growers with more predictable demand.
INVESTMENT — DHL Express Europe plans to proceed with its investment plans in the Middle East despite the ongoing regional conflict, CEO Mike Parra told Sky News Arabia (watch, runtime: 4:43). DHL group last year announced plans to deploy over EUR 500 mn in the region between 2024 and 2030, with a focus on the UAE and Saudi Arabia. The strategy spans the group’s four divisions — DHL Express, DHL Global Forwarding, DHL Supply Chain, and DHL eCommerce. DHL Express is expected to upgrade its hub and gateway infrastructure while expanding air fleet capacity.
Disruptions from the conflict have meant it has had to tweak some of its routes, with airport closures and shipping delays prompting the company to reroute cargo by flying shipments to hubs in Asia, including Kazakhstan, before transporting them by road into the Middle East, Parra said.
PRIVATE EQUITY — Newly-founded PE firm Nahda Capital Partners is looking to raise USD 300 mn for its debut ADGM-based PE fund in the coming weeks, targeting controlling stakes in mid-market family businesses across the GCC, according to a press release. The firm plans to focus on real economy sectors, including food production, healthcare, and industrial tech. Its approach relies on “an operational value-creation model focused on professionalization, operational improvement, governance strengthening, and selective buy-and-build expansion.” Nahda Capital Partners is led by Iñigo de Luna (Linkedin).
Happening today
Ethiopian Prime Minister in Abu Dhabi: Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed is in the UAE for a working visit, state news agency Wam reports.
Data point
3k tons by land, 500 tons by air, and 1.2k tons through the sea — that’s how much fresh produce importer NRTC Group, the fresh fruits and vegetable handler of Ghitha Holding and IH, says it has brought into the UAE in the past week. It has lifted import volumes by roughly 50% to “to offset potential supply gaps across the wider market ecosystem and ensure consistent availability of fresh produce across the UAE and region,” it said. That included bringing in produce by land from Jordan, Turkey, Syria, and Egypt, others by air, and more by sea through Fujairah and Khor Fakkan — with 17k more tons already on the way.
Cargo is still making it through the UAE — it just no longer takes the obvious route. As war disruptions complicate direct shipping lanes, Gulf operators are pushing freight through alternative land and sea corridors across the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Oman. In the UAE, that means east-coast ports like Fujairah and Khor Fakkan are taking in cargo that would normally head further inside the Gulf, before containers are trucked under bond to Jebel Ali for clearance, according to Zawya — a longer route, but one that keeps shelves and supply chains moving.
Rail, meanwhile, is keeping useful: Etihad Rail says it moved 459k tons of cargo over the past nine days, while adding five extra services to east-coast ports and Al Ghail Dry Port as inland corridors picked up slack. Sky routes are also still available, as emergency air corridors remain open with room for 48 flights an hour.
REMEMBER- This is largely the fallback script we flagged earlier: LuLu Group International had already started chartering produce flights into Abu Dhabi, and has now done it again beyond the UAE — arranging a second round of special cargo flights carrying fruits, vegetables, and meat from India into Kuwait City — while customs friction is being shaved down through bonded transit and faster clearance to move goods around the strait rather than waiting.
The big story abroad
It’s a mixed bag in the global business press this morning, but most news outlets are looking at oil prices, which have refused to let up after both US President Donald Trump and new Iranian Supreme Leader Mojtaba Khamenei struck a defiant tone in separate statements yesterday, giving no hints of a near end to the war.
Khamenei made his first public statement since his appointment, and his message was: he plans to ensure the Strait of Hormuz will remain effectively closed, and that if the US and Israel continue their attacks, Iran would open up new fronts in the war.
Meanwhile, Trump shrugged off rising oil prices, saying that preventing Iran from having nuclear weapons “of far greater interest and importance to me” in a social media post. Still, the US eased restrictions on Russian oil in what seems like a move to help ease prices, allowing companies to buy Russian oil stranded at sea.
Also getting attention: A US refueling military aircraft crashed in Iraq. It’s not clear yet whether the three-man crew was injured or killed.
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Oil watch
Oil price playbooks: Fitch Ratings raised its 2026 Brent forecast to USD 70 per barrel from USD 63 per barrel after the effective closure of Hormuz — though while still viewing the disruption as temporary. The logic is that prices spike when the artery closes, but the market quickly reverts once flows resume. Fitch’s view is that the geopolitical premium is real, but the duration of the disruption isn’t.
Wall Street agrees on the direction but not the size of the spike: Goldman Sachs now sees Brent averaging USD 98 per barrel in March-April before easing to USD 71 by 4Q, while its upside scenario pushes the early-year average to USD 110 if flows are disrupted for a month. Citi also raised its Brent outlook to USD 75 per barrel in 1Q and USD 78 per barrel in 2Q, as opposed to USD 73 per barrel and USD 70 per barrel earlier.
Why do the forecasts remain contained? The oil market entered the crisis with a cushion. Global supply rose by some 3 mn bbl / d in 2025, while demand grew well below 1 mn bbl / d, leaving the market structurally oversupplied, according to Fitch. Forecasts for 2026 still show supply expanding 2.4 mn bbl / d against demand growth of some 800k bbl / d, while global inventories sit near 8.2 bn barrels — roughly enough to cover a halt in shipments through Hormuz for some 400 days, Fitch said.
The signal: Banks are pricing a shock, not a shortage. Strategic reserve release and large global inventories mean the system has buffers — suggesting prices may spike while Hormuz stays shut but could ease once flows resume. The banks are saying the market shock is real, but it probably won’t last.
For now, Brent is still hovering near the USD 100 mark.
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