Good morning, friends, and happy happy hump day. It’s the third day of Abu Dhabi Finance Week, and we expect it to be just as busy as the first two days, as financiers, investors, and asset managers take over Al Maryah Island for the week. (And by take over, we mean take over — we haven’t seen The Galleria this busy in years.)

It’s another busy day for M&A news: Orascom Construction’s board approves its merger with Dutch-listed fertilizer firm OCI to form an Abu Dhabi-based infrastructure investment platform, Adnoc is eyeing a stake in oil refinery operator Serbia’s Oil Industry, and Ethmar International Holding acquired a stake in flour milling firm Al Ain Mills.

PLUS- Another M&A transaction overseas is continuing to get attention in the business press, as everyone tries to unpack Paramount Skydance’s hostile bid to take over Warner Bros, and Abu Dhabi and other Gulf sovereign wealth funds’ potential role in the acquisition.

The general take? Involvement of Gulf SWFs is less about the finances and more strategic — a move that comes as the Gulf — in particular the UAE — strengthens its ties with the US, one Reuters commentary piece explains. The acquisition would mark a significant investment in the US’ media industry, which would count as part of Qatar, Saudi Arabia, and the UAE’s pledge for tns of investments in the US. It would also help support the Ellisons, who are backstopping the acquisition and who have close ties to US President Donald Trump.

The move is one of many “soft power” plays from the Gulf in recent years, as sovereign wealth funds find leeway to take strategic positions in major global firms and strategic industries through attractive terms that shareholders find difficult to refuse.

Speaking of SWFs: Another big story today is another milestone for Mubadala and Alpha Dhabi’s JV, which now acquired an Apollo Global-managed European direct lending portfolio.

We also have a rundown of recent amendments to the Commercial Companies law that introduces new capital structures, provides clarity for freezone units that operate outside of freezones, and introduces re-domiciliation to create a more business-friendly environment. Plus: A new Masdar plant in Uzbekistan kicks off operations as the firm breaks ground on another; Khazna expands to Saudi Arabia; and a new USD 500 mn fund is launched by Arabian Gulf Investment. Let’s dive in.

As we inch closer to the end of the year, Bloomberg takes a look back at what was an uncharacteristically lackluster year for IPOs in the Gulf. Proceeds from Gulf listings more than halved to USD 6 bn this year, from USD 13 bn in 2024, as global IPO activity rebounded and capital rotated towards markets like the US and Asia.

In the UAE, things slowed down after Talabat and Lulu Retail’s saw muted debuts, with players like Dubizzle choosing to delay their listings as investors become more reluctant to take on risk or “navigate through a lot of complexity,” EFG Hermes’ head of investment banking Mostafa Gad is quoted as saying. Instead, investors were more attracted to simpler, smaller stories and clear fundamentals.

Even traditionally strong state-linked names are seeing cooler receptions: Alec Holdings, historically the type of IPO that delivered a reliable pop, saw a soft debut and has managed only a modest 3% debut gain YTD — a far cry from the 30%+ gains Gulf IPOs saw in previous years, and a shift that Gad sees indicates a more mature market.

Another sign of a maturing market: The shift has pushed activity toward follow-ons, which are on track to top USD 5 bn this year as Abu Dhabi-backed shareholders trim positions to lift freefloats, liquidity, and index weighting.

WEATHER- It’s a mostly sunny day in both Dubai and Abu Dhabi, with the mercury peaking at 31°C in Dubai and 30°C in Abu Dhabi, before cooling to a low of 20°C in the former and 19°C in the capital.

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WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Mubadala Investment is in discussions to take over Brazilian fintech WillHolding Financeira, which would also see it acquire credit card and payments unit Will Bank and pour capital into the firm, sources familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. The takeover isn’t confirmed, with discussions still underway, the source added.

The fintech firm has been having a tough time since its owner, Banco Master, was liquidated by Brazil’s central bank amid fraud allegations. Will Bank was excluded from the liquidation and placed under a special temporary administration, allowing it to keep operating and be sold with approval from the appointed intervener.

Also involved: Brazilian deposit-ins. fund FGC is considering providing a loan to Will Bank, with an option to convert the loan into equity. The fintech held about BRL 7.5 bn (AED 5.1 bn) in deposits at the end of 2024, which could require coverage from FGC in the event of a liquidation. Mastercard, which works with the firm to provide credit cards to lower-income customers, is mulling giving the fintech more time to repay fees it owes for using Mastercard’s services.

ADVISORS- Laplace Finanças, hired by Mastercard to sell Will Bank, is advising on the process.

Mubadala in Brazil: The sovereign wealth fund has been eyeing Brazil for a while now, recently snapping up 60.3% of a Brazilian infrastructure player’s subsidiary in another transaction involving a debt-laden firm, as well as earmarking USD 13.5 bn for a biofuels project in the country — where it also controls subway operators in Rio de Janeiro and a 58% stake in Brazilian food retailer Zamp.

#2- State-owned oil giant Adnoc is said to be in talks to acquire Russia’s controlling stake in Serbian Oil Industry (NIS), the operator of Serbia’s only oil refinery, the Financial Times reports, citing people it says are familiar with the process. Adnoc is reportedly viewed as the leading bidder, though Serbia is still speaking with other potential suitors including Hungary’s MOL. The oil giant’s interest is understood to be driven partly by strong UAE-Serbia ties, with any acquisition likely routed through the group’s core business rather than XRG.

The geopolitics at play: The Russian-owned stake, corresponding to roughly USD 2.6 bn of NIS’s USD 4.7 bn asset base (according to the latest 2024 disclosure), has been pushed toward a sale after US sanctions cut off operational waivers, forcing NIS to halt crude production and intensifying pressure on Gazprom-linked shareholders to exit.

ICYMI- Adnoc has been circling other Russian-linked assets: The oil giant is among several companies (including IHC, Carlyle, Chevron and ExxonMobil) weighing bids for parts of Lukoil’s overseas portfolio as the Russian group races to offload its international operations ahead of new US sanctions taking effect on 13 December.

#3- Aldar tees up a fresh debt sale + program: ADX-listed developer Aldar is gearing up for a return to debt markets with up to USD 2 bn in hybrid, non-convertible, subordinated bonds or sukuk set to be offered internationally under a newly approved shareholder mandate, according to a bourse disclosure (pdf). Shareholders of the IHC-linked developer also signed off on the establishment of a USD 3 bn non-convertible sukuk and bond program issued internationally.

The move comes as Aldar pushes for expansion across Dubai and Abu Dhabi, from an AED 60 bn expansion of al Maryah Island through its JV with Mubadala, to a deepening of its investment portfolio in Abu Dhabi. The company issued nearly USD 2 bn in bonds and sukuk this year to fund its expansion.

#4- The UAE’s real GDP is forecast to grow 4.6% in 2026, a very robust growth rate that is akin to that of emerging economies, despite its maturing status, Maurice Gravier, Emirates NBD’s Group Chief Investment Officer told CNBC Arabia (watch, runtime: 5:41).

The non-oil sector growth is expected to grow 4.5% next year, while the oil sector could see 5% growth, with Opec+ output production remaining high despite the group’s estimate of lower prices ranging between USD 55-60 / bbl, according to Gravier. Meanwhile, lower inflation rates along with population growth is supporting the domestic consumption in the UAE, he adds.

Other forecasts are even more optimistic: BMI and ICAEW expect the UAE’s economy to grow 5.6% in 2026, while the CBUAE expects growth to reach 5.3% in 2026. Meanwhile, the IMF and World Bank estimate 5% growth in 2026.

#5- Investcorp plans to deploy at least USD 6 bn in FY 2025-2026, with capital earmarked for private equity, real estate (including infrastructure), and debt strategies, Global Head of Distribution Yusef Al Yusef told state news agency Wam on the sidelines of Abu Dhabi Finance Week. Potential US investments are largely driving expansion, he added.

#6- Also eyeing the US: Sharjah-based developer Arada is exploring investments in the US housing market, with a strong focus on Miami, Austin, and Nashville, The National quotes the company’s vice chairman Prince Khaled bin Alwaleed as saying at Abu Dhabi Finance Week.

Arada is also set to launch projects in Saudi Arabia in 1Q 2026, he said, citing the Kingdom’s need for up to 2 mn new homes. The company is in talks with “five or six quite large entities” for the plans.

ICYMI- Arada has been expanding internationally, with active projects in the UK and Australia. It recently acquired a prime regeneration site in south London, as well as an 80% stake in the AED 12.3 bn Thameside West waterfront development in London’s Royal Docks, as it looks past the exodus of wealth from the capital with a longer 10 to 15-year approach, he added. The firm also rolled out a Sydney office to pursue AED 6 bn worth of projects.

#7- Gulf Capital to launch fourth fund in early 2026: Alternative investment company Gulf Capital will launch a fourth fund targeting a USD 800 mn close in 1Q 2026, the firm’s co-founder and CEO Karim El Solh (LinkedIn) told CNBC Arabia (watch, runtime: 4:35). While the company did not specify a focus for their next fund, previous investments throughout the past five years targeted key sectors including healthcare, technology, and fintech. The firm had been planning to launch the fund since late 2024.

A portfolio listing is in the works: The firm is planning to list Saudi Arabia’s top payment services provider Geidea — which it acquired a strategic stake in back in 2018 — on Tadawul within the next two years.

#8- Al Dahra exits Romania grain trading amid Black Sea market volatility: UAE-based agribusiness group Al Dahra Holding is exiting grain trading in Romania, due to crowding and geopolitical pressures faced by international traders in the Black Sea market, Bloomberg reports. The company will gradually phase out trading in Romania following three consecutive years of financial losses, while continuing to operate its farming and fertilizer businesses in the country.

IN CONTEXT- The company’s trading arm posted USD 28.1 mn in losses between 2022 and 2024.

Background: The company’s exit stems from a shift in market dynamics, after Ukraine regained access to the Black Sea route, resulting in intensified competition for a shrinking supply of grain. The tightening in margins and a rise in costs led many global traders, including US-based agribusiness Andersons, to exit the grain market entirely.

DATA POINT-

Abu Dhabi, Dubai rank among top 15 global financial hubs in new index: A new global financial center competitiveness index (pdf) launched by the Stern School of Business at New York University Abu Dhabi ranks Abu Dhabi as the 12th most established financial hub globally, and Dubai as 14th. The index, which ranks New York, London, and Singapore as the top three, takes into account the financial hubs’ footprint, institutional strength, resources, and local ecosystems, as well as growth and future readiness.

Established centers like those in the top three continue to dominate, the report said, though it noted that Abu Dhabi and other new contenders like Seoul, Shanghai, and Riyadh (ranked 26th) are “rising rapidly” in terms of metrics like innovation and technology.

PSAs-

#1- You can soon hop into a Mercedez autonomous car in Abu Dhabi: K2 Group’s robotaxi subsidiary Lumo Mobility is set to receive self-driving cars in Abu Dhabi under a new partnership between German automaker Mercedes-Benz Group and Chinese software developer Momenta Global, Bloomberg reports. The two companies will deploy automated driving on Mercedes’ next-generation S-Class model, which is set to debut in January.

The world is pushing for autonomy: Global automakers are shifting toward Chinese software partners to boost the push for autonomous-driving plans and temper high development costs. The shift is evident in Germany's car industry, which relies increasingly on China to combat pressure from EV competition, easing sales, and tight margins.

#2- Dubai launches Jabr to simplify bereavement procedures: Dubai Health Authority has rolled out a digital platform designed to simplify bereavement management procedures for families immediately after a death is registered, according to the Dubai Media Office. Under the system, a government service officer will personally handle each case, covering all administrative, juridical, and logistical procedures on behalf of the families, in coordination with the related entities.

How it works: Once a death is registered, the platform will send automatic notifications across all government departments, streamlining the issuance of death certificates, repatriations, burial arrangements, and estate file openings — eliminating the need for in-person procedures.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- Abu Dhabi Finance Week runs until Thursday, 11 December at the ADGM in Al Maryah Island. The largest finance event in the UAE promises a star-studded lineup, with the likes of Microsoft founder Bill Gates, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, and JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon among the speakers on the schedule. Day one will host the Abu Dhabi Economic Forum, which will feature government officials, heads of sovereign wealth funds, and economists to discuss the future of sustainable economic development.

#2- The Bridge Summit runs until Wednesday, 10 December at the Adnec Center in Abu Dhabi. The three day multimedia conference convenes C-suite executives, policymakers, media professionals, and content creators featuring panel discussions, talks and keynotes to discuss the future of media, entertainment and the creative landscape.

#3- The US Federal Reserve will decide whether to cut interest rates further or hold them steady at the current three-year low of 3.75-4%. It is widely expected to opt for another quarter-point reduction to boost a weakened labor market, though any move would signal a “hawkish cut” as inflation stays sticky and policymakers remain divided.

The Central Bank of the UAE will likely mirror the Fed’s decision, given the AED’s peg to the USD.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

The UAE is among eight countries attending the Pax Silica summit hosted by the US on Friday, 12 December at the White House. The meeting will gather close US allies including Japan, South Korea, Singapore, the Netherlands, the UK, Israel, and Australia as the US looks to reduce dependence on China and counter its dominance in AI technology. Washington aims to secure agreements with the attending countries — all of whom either possess critical mineral resources or host major semiconductor firms.

DATA POINT- China accounts for over 90% of the world’s rare earths and permanent magnet refining capacity — essential for the development of computer chips and other AI technology — followed by Malaysia with just 4%.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Trump clears path for Nvidia chip sales to China: The Trump administration will allow Nvidia to sell its advanced H200 AI chips to approved customers in China, easing export restrictions imposed during the Biden administration. Under the new deal, the US government will take a 25% cut of proceeds — up from 15% in a prior agreement — with similar arrangements expected for AMD and Intel. The decision follows months of lobbying by Nvidia CEO Jensen Huang, who pledged USD 500 bn in US AI investments. The move has drawn criticism from lawmakers, who warned it could aid China’s military and surveillance capabilities. (Guardian | Reuters | CNBC | New York Times | Bloomberg | BBC)

AND IN BUSINESS NEWS- The European Commission has launched an investigation into whether Google uses content from websites and YouTube videos to power its AI-generated summaries and other tools without compensating creators or offering opt-outs, the commission said in a statement. Regulators are also examining if Google’s AI Mode reduces traffic to publishers’ sites. The investigation follows complaints from media groups and campaigners who say Google’s AI Overviews divert readers and threaten journalism revenues. (BBC | CNBC | Reuters | Guardian)

PLUS- Investors brace for a divided Fed: Markets expect the US Federal Reserve to cut interest rates by 25 bps today to a 3.50-3.75% range, but analysts warn of deep divisions within the policy committee — possibly the most dissent seen in years, Reuters reports. As many as five of the 12 voting members could oppose the move, raising concerns about growing politicization under President Trump, who has pushed for lower rates ahead of next year’s midterms.

ALSO MAKING HEADLINES- Ukraine and its European allies are preparing a revised peace proposal to end the war with Russia that includes a 20-point framework, security guarantees, and a reconstruction plan, which will soon be presented to Washington. (Reuters | BBC | CNBC | Guardian)

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OIL WATCH-

India’s Reliance Industries upped its Middle Eastern crude uptake, including from the UAE, to at least 10 mn bbl for January, Bloomberg reports, citing traders. India’s state‑owned Mangalore Refinery and HPCL‑Mittal Energy have also increased purchases from the region as they aim to replace Russian crude, as have Thai and Malaysian refiners for the same period.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.