Good morning, lovely people. It’s been a relatively quiet few days for most of us in Dubai — though it largely depends on where you are — but the impact of Iranian attacks is still being felt.
As schools remain online and many offices are shuttered, Iran is upping the ante of attacks, using weekends to target industrial facilities and, for the first time, a US company. We have everything on the events of the past weekend in this morning’s War Watch, below.
Bright spots remain, from a slight opening up of the Strait of Hormuz to a ramping up of operational capacity among UAE carriers, but there’s also bad news on the macro front.
The non-oil sector was hit hard by the war last month, with S&P Global’s Purchasing Managers’ Index falling to a near five-year low, with indications of rising prices, major supply chain disruptions, and falling demand. We have more in our Big Story Today, below.
On a brighter note… Moody’s stood firm on its credit rating for the UAE, while maintaining a stable outlook, though it still warned of a major downside risk if the war sees further escalation.
WEATHER- It’s a warm day across the country, with highs of 29-30°C in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, and a low of 22°C, according to our favorite weather app.
Watch this space
DISRUPTION WATCH — Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) said it could take up to a year to restore full production at the Al Taweelah facility, after severe damage caused by Iranian strikes last week, state news agency Wam reports. The site remains under emergency shutdown.
Aluminum prices rose 5% after the attacks on EGA and the Aluminum Bahrain complex in Bahrain, and prices could rise as high as USD 4k per ton in a worst-case scenario, analysts told us earlier. Manufacturing industries — including auto, aerospace, construction, and packaging — are poised to face the biggest supply chain bottlenecks. Since the onset of the war, global aluminum prices rose over 10% in March.
DEBT — Pakistan will return USD 3.5 bn in matured loan deposits to the UAE, the Express Tribune reports, citing unnamed senior government officials. The country’s Foreign Ministry said the debt repayment was “a routine financial transaction” that will be repaid through the State Bank of Pakistan, according to a statement on X.
IN CONTEXT- The UAE had agreed earlier this year to roll over a USD 2 bn deposit until 17 April, after offering multiple rollovers in previous years. The repayment terms were not disclosed, but the purpose of the roll over was to negotiate the repayment period and interest rate.
How much has the UAE deposited in Pakistan? The UAE had also extended a USD 450 mn loan to Pakistan in 1996 which matured in 30 years, the Express Tribune quotes a senior government official as saying. Another USD 1 bn deposit was made in 2023 to help Pakistan meet funding requirements for an IMF bailout.
INVESTMENT WATCH — Gulf investors backing Paramount’s Warner Bros’ takeover are expected to put pen to paper as soon as today, people familiar with the matter told the Wall Street Journal. Abu Dhabi’s government-owned firm L’imad, Saudi Arabia’s Public Investment Fund, and the Qatar Investment Authority are committing some USD 24 bn to Paramount, with PIF putting down the lion’s share — around USD 10 bn.
REMEMBER- The battle for Warner Bros Discovery reached a dramatic end in February, with Netflix walking away from its bid for the Hollywood studio and streaming giant, paving the way for Paramount to acquire the firm.
Data point
The UAE was one of the world’s top 10 goods exporters for the first time in 2025, according to the World Trade Organization, The National reports, citing recent figures from the WTO. The value of non-oil exports increased 45% to AED 813 bn, driving a trade surplus of AED 584 bn.
The total value of trade in goods and services hit AED 6 tn in 2025, with goods in the lead at AED 4.6 tn. Services surpassed the AED 1 tn benchmark for the first time, with digital services hitting USD 33 bn, accounting for 17% of total service exports. The UAE contributed 3.3% of total exported goods globally and 2% of services.
IN CONTEXT- A big part of the credit goes to the UAE’s comprehensive economic partnership agreements (CEPAs), the most recent being with Ecuador in March, with a USD 3 bn project pipeline, and another is currently in the works with Japan. The country also secured a CEPA with Gabon and Congo in February, as well as a services and investment accord with Armenia to widen market access and boost bilateral capital flows. The UAE has concluded agreements with 35 countries.
The big story abroad
It’s a pretty quiet morning in the global front pages, with the latest threats from Trump getting top billing.
US President Donald Trump has once again threatened to destroy Iran’s power infrastructure. Should Tehran keep the Strait of Hormuz shut, Trump has vowed to target civilian infrastructure — power plants and bridges — in a TruthSocial post leading to some critics pointing out that this would constitute a war crime.
Oil jumped following the President’s ultimatum. Brent futures rose 1.6% to USD 110.74 a barrel earlier today, while US West Texas Intermediate futures gained 0.6% to trade at USD 112.25.
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Oil watch
Opec+ decided to boost oil output by 206k bbl / d for May yesterday, with the UAE alone contributing 18k bbl / d, according to a statement from the organization. The hike may only take effect on paper as key nations remain unable to raise production amid the US-Iran conflict, Reuters reports.
The move indicates a willingness to raise output once the Strait of Hormuz reopens, sources in the eight-member bloc told Reuters. The hike — which only amounts to 2% of the supply disrupted by Iran’s closure of the waterway — is expected to add “very few barrels to the market,” former Opec official Jorge Leon told Reuters.
The organization “expressed concern regarding attacks on energy infrastructure, noting that restoring damaged energy assets to full capacity is both costly and takes a long time, thereby affecting overall supply availability.”
Circle your calendar
Amid an uncharacteristic dearth of events for this time of year due to the ongoing war, Abu Dhabi is still making plans for April:
The Abu Dhabi Global Entrepreneurship Festival will run from Monday, 20 April until Wednesday, 22 April at the Abu Dhabi Energy Center, the Abu Dhabi Media Office said in a post on X
Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays, and news triggers.



