Non-oil GDP hits a record 77.3% of economic activity

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Red Sea cables severed, causing internet service disruptions

Good morning, wonderful people, and welcome back from the long weekend that also marked the last national holiday until we celebrate the UAE national day in December. We have a relatively busy start to the week, leading with the latest GDP growth figures for the country, as well as banking figures for the UAE and the region from Kamco Invest.

Internet acting up over the weekend? The UAE, Saudi Arabia, India, and Pakistan saw internet service disruptions after several undersea cables in the Red Sea were cut, NBC News and Al Jazeera report. UAE operator du warned customers of possible slow data speeds, saying its teams are working with global providers to resolve the issue. Microsoft also flagged higher latency on some Middle East routes, Reuters reports, though rerouting helped limit the impact.

The cause has not been confirmed, after the outage, which began on Saturday, hit the SMW4 and IMEWE systems near Jeddah, according to NetBlocks. Cables can be damaged by ship anchors or deliberate attacks. Yemen’s Houthis have previously been accused of looking to target such infrastructure, though they deny responsibility.

What’s next? Repairs to subsea cables typically take weeks. Around 15% of global internet traffic passes through Red Sea cables.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Adia could join USD 1.6 bn Yondr acquisition: The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (Adia) is likely to participate in global operator Vantage Data Centers’ potential USD 1.6 bn acquisition of London-headquartered Yondr Group, Bloomberg reports, citing unnamed sources. The acquisition would see Vantage take over the hyperscale data center developer’s Malaysia assets. While the transaction value could change as talks are ongoing, a takeover would boost their joint backer DigitalBridge’s portfolio.

REMEMBER- Abu Dhabi is already familiar with both Yondr and DigitalBridge. Last year, Adia acquired a 40% stake in Landmark Dividend — a DigitalBridge subsidiary — while Abu Dhabi-based sovereign wealth fund Mubadala invested in Yondr. Yondr later sought USD 500 mn in debt to back a project in Malaysia, which is emerging as a key base for Southeast Asia’s data centers.

#2- Noon considers dual listing: E-commerce platform Noon is mulling a dual listing in the UAE and Saudi Arabia within the next two years as it moves toward profitability, founder Mohamed Alabbar told the Financial Times on Friday. The company, which was founded in 2026, operates across the Kingdom, the UAE, and Egypt and is currently valued at about USD 10 bn.

More than IPOs in the works: The company is expanding its automated self-delivery services, aiming to cut its 40k delivery workforce by half by 2027. Noon is also exploring mergers and acquisitions to expand into new markets like India, Alabbar said.

#3- Alpha Dhabi eyes Indonesia toll road investment: Alpha Dhabi Holding entered a non-binding agreement through a subsidiary with Indonesian toll road developer PT Bakrie Toll Indonesia to explore financing road toll infrastructure in the country, according to an ADX disclosure (pdf). The discussions are at a preliminary stage, and the company said there is no assurance they will result in a definitive agreement.

#4- Adnoc looks to line up USD 10 bn in debt for Santos takeover: Adnoc’s international investment arm XRG is said to be in talks with local and international banks to raise more than USD 10 bn in financing for its USD 18.7 bn bid for Australian oil and gas producer Santos, Bloomberg reports citing people it says are familiar with the matter. JP Morgan is leading the debt package and advising the XRG-led consortium, which also includes ADQ and Carlyle.

Where we’re at: The parties are working toward a binding agreement by Friday, 19 September, when the exclusivity period expires. The group is still conducting due diligence and seeking regulatory approvals.

Why it matters: If completed, the acquisition would give Adnoc a major foothold in LNG, putting it in the same league as Saudi Aramco and other Gulf peers targeting one of the world’s fastest-growing fuel markets, the information service wrote.

#5- Etihad Airways is weighing bulk buying aircraft parts and storing them in local warehouses for on-demand access in a bid to sidestep supply chain gridlocks from planemakers, Bloomberg reports. The Abu Dhabi-based carrier has sought other alternatives to meet rising travel demand, including a USD 1 bn retrofit program for its existing fleet. Etihad is also bringing two more Airbus A380s back into service — it had planned to permanently retire the massive jet in favor of smaller planes, but supply constraints have forced it to reintroduce seven into the fleet.

Outdated certification processes are also weighing down progress. Certain certification requirements — enforced by the Federal Aviation Administration and the EU Aviation Safety Agency — are driving delays that are affecting the carrier’s expansion plans.

REMEMBER- Growth is on Etihad’s agenda: The airline is aiming to add 22 aircraft to its fleet this year, part of its push to reach 170 jets by 2030, CEO Antonoaldo Neves said earlier this year.

#6- Sudan’s gold exports disrupted amid UAE ban: The UAE’s decision to bar all trade with Sudan is leading Sudan to seek buyers from Oman and other countries, Bloomberg reports. The Emirati ban — enacted last month — includes shipments in transit from Asia and other Gulf countries, according to a Sudanese Transportation Ministry document seen by Bloomberg. The UAE stands out as Sudan’s largest trading partner — with total bilateral goods flow hitting USD 2.2 bn in 2024.

The Sudanese government has already reached a preliminary agreement with Oman to uptake its product, two officials told the business information service. A Sudanese mining ministry delegation also visited Oman and Bahrain last week to explore alternative shipment routes for the gold, the officials added.

HAPPENING TODAY-

Doors are opening today for the DigiHealth WHX-Tech Expo, which will run until Wednesday at the World Trade Center in Dubai. The WHX event brings together C-suite executives, procurement heads, government officials, and investors for keynote addresses and exhibitions discussing new digital health solutions targeting global health obstacles.

The UAE’s Universal Postal Congress is kicking off today and will continue until Friday at the Dubai World Trade Center. The union’s 192 member countries will meet to set policies and strategy for the coming year, with this year’s congress looking to adopt advanced tech under the theme “Leading the Change, Creating the Future.”

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

Du’s tech event Envision is happening tomorrow at Atlantis, The Royal in Dubai. The event will bring together decisionmakers, tech partners and industry leaders for a conference and exhibition focusing on the digital transformation in areas like data centers, sovereign cloud, and cloud computing.

The International Government Communication Forum is happening on Wednesday and Thursday at Expo Centre Sharjah. Hosted by the Sharjah Government Media Bureau, the two-day event will feature panel discussions, workshops, and keynote speeches focused on using strategic communication to develop five global priorities: food security, public health, education, environmental sustainability, and green economy.

TheInternational Real Estate and Investment Show Abu Dhabi is taking place from Friday until Sunday in Abu Dhabi. The conference brings together global developers and investors for insights into investment and market trends in the Middle East, Europe, and Asia Pacific regions.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The global press zeroed in on US President Donald Trump’s “last warning” to Hamas, as he continued to push the group to accept the terms of his ceasefire and hostage release agreement. “The Israelis have accepted my Terms … It is time for Hamas to accept as well,” Trump wrote on Truth Social. Trump’s Middle East envoy Steve Witkoff last week delivered the proposal to Hamas — the proposal includes releasing all 48 remaining Israeli hostages in exchange for ending Israel’s war on Gaza.. (Bloomberg | Reuters | Axios | AFP | BBC)

ON THE TARIFFS FRONT- US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent warned that the Trump administration may have to return as much as USD 1 tn in collected tariffs if the Supreme Court strikes down the president’s reciprocal tariffs, writes CNBC. During an interview, Bessent said “we would have to give a refund on about half the tariffs, which would be terrible for the Treasury,” though he expressed confidence that the court would ultimately side with the administration.

AND IN SPORTS NEWS- Carlos Alcaraz reclaimed the world No. 1 spot yesterday after defeating Jannik Sinner in the US Open final. Alcaraz’s 6-2, 3-6, 6-1, 6-4 victory handed him his second US Open and sixth Grand Slam title and a 10-5 edge in his head-to-head rivalry with Sinner. (Associated Press | BBC | New York Times)

ALSO WORTH READING THIS MORNING-

Are music-backed bonds the next hot thing on Wall Street? The so-called “Bowie bonds” — debt instruments backed by music royalties — are hitting the mainstream, with investors like Blackstone and Carlyle helping raise a record USD 4.4 bn in 2025. (Financial Times)
The death of the career ladder? As AI eats into entry-level jobs, the classic American tale of climbing from mailroom to CEO could soon be a thing of the past. Research shows a 50% drop in new roles for fresh grads at major tech firms, and with org charts flattening and AI systems working 24/7, early career development is under threat. Experts suggest the “bottom rung” may disappear entirely — but optimists say a flatter structure could just uplevel everyone. (CNBC)

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MARKET WATCH-

Opec+ will raise output again next month, approving an additional 137k bbl/d from October as part of its accelerated rollback supply cuts, according to a press release. The cartel said that it will continue monthly hikes through September 2026, fast-tracking the return of 1.65 mn bbl/d that was previously set to stay offline until the end of 2026.

REMEMBER- Analysts said Riyadh was unlikely to push more barrels into the market immediately, as the Kingdom seeks to balance its market-share play against the risk of adding to a surplus and pressuring prices further. The bloc has already added some 2.5 mn bbl/d since starting output hikes in April, reversing its 2023 supply curbs. Crude has stayed near USD 70/bbl, supported by Western sanctions on Russia and Iran, and by Opec+ supply falling short of pledges.

In practice, however, most members are already pumping at or near capacity, leaving Saudi Arabia and the UAE as the only producers able to meaningfully increase supply, Reuters reports, citing analysts and production data.

Middle East crude exports slipped to a three-month low of 17.13 mn bbl/d in August, down 754k bbl/d from June’s peak, even as Opec+ has been ramping production, Mees reports. Regional Opec+ quotas have risen by a cumulative 1.45 mn bbl/d since August last year, but actual exports increased by only 471k bbl/d, topping out at 17.89 mn bbl/d in June, Mees said, citing Kpler data.

UAE GDP grows 3.9% in 1Q 2025 as non-oil share hits record 77.3%

The UAE’s real GDP grew 3.9% y-o-y in 1Q 2025, state news agency Wam reports, citing preliminary data from the Federal Competitiveness and Statistics Center.

The non-oil sector is to thank: Non-oil GDP expanded 5.3% to AED 352 bn, bringing the share of non-oil activities to a record 77.3% of the economy. Meanwhile, the oil sector accounted for the remaining 22.7% of output during the quarter.

Manufacturing led overall growth, with the sector’s 7.7% y-o-y growth outpacing other industries. Finance and ins., along with construction, each grew at a 7.0% clip, while real estate activities grew 6.6% and trade 3.0%.

Top contributors to non-oil GDP: Trade continued to account for the largest share of non-oil GDP at 15.6%, followed by finance and ins. at 14.6%, manufacturing (13.4%), construction (12.0%), and real estate (7.4%).

REMEMBER- Non-oil foreign trade jumped 24% y-o-y to nearly AED 1.7 tn in 1H 2025, with exports surging 44.7% to a record AED 369.5 bn and accounting for 21.4% of total non-oil trade. The sector is now on track to hit AED 4 tn by 2027 — four years ahead of the original 2031 target.

The bigger picture: The UAE is targeting a GDP of AED 3 tn by 2031. Standard Chartered expects the UAE economy to grow 5% in 2025 before moderating to 4% over the following two years. The IMF projects 4% growth this year, while the CBUAE now sees GDP expanding by 4.4% in 2025 — up from 4% in 2024 — and accelerating to 5.4% in 2026. Fitch Solutions’ BMI, meanwhile, trimmed its 2025 forecast to 4.3% from 4.6%, still above the 4% recorded last year.

UAE banks lead GCC loan and revenue growth in 2Q 2025

UAE banks booked another strong quarter in 2Q 2025, leading the GCC in loan and revenue growth, Kamco Invest said in its latest banking sector quarterly report (pdf). Net income rose 3.2% q-o-q (USD 191.8 mn), the second biggest absolute gain in the bloc.

Loans and revenues: Gross loans expanded 4.6% q-o-q — the fastest pace in the GCC — adding USD 29.8 bn to reach USD 672.8 bn. Revenues also rose 5.3% q-o-q to a regional high of USD 13.3 bn, driven by a 10.1% jump in non-interest income to USD 5.7 bn and a 1.8% uptick in net interest income to USD 7.6 bn.

Customer deposits also topped the region, climbing 4.1% q-o-q to USD 941 bn. That left the UAE’s loan-to-deposit ratio at 67.9%, up slightly from the previous quarter but still the lowest among Gulf peers, signaling ample liquidity.

Margins remained the strongest in the GCC: Net interest margins came in at 3.26%, down from 3.34% in 1Q but well ahead of other markets — thanks to low-cost CASA deposits and a heavy weighting toward retail lending. Operating expenses fell 6.1% q-o-q to USD 4.6 bn, helping push the cost-to-income ratio down to 38% from 38.7% in the prior quarter.

However, impairments more than doubled to USD 500 mn, lifting the cost of risk to 0.5%, in line with the GCC average. Even so, UAE banks delivered the highest return on equity in the bloc at 16.4%. The figure edged lower for the fourth straight quarter but remained comfortably above regional peers.

THE REGIONAL PICTURE-

GCC banks collectively posted record net income of USD 16.2 bn in 2Q 2025, up 3.7% q-o-q and 9.2% y-o-y. Sector-wide revenues rose 3.6% q-o-q to USD 35.6 bn, with non-interest income up 7.5% and net interest income also edging higher.

At the aggregate level, GCC gross loans rose 3.3% q-o-q to a record USD 2.3 tn, while deposits climbed 3.5% to USD 2.7 tn. Return on equity held steady at 13.6%, as the sector’s cost-to-income ratio dipped below 40% on a three-quarter low in operating expenses.

Kuwait led in net income growth, climbing USD 204.6, or 15.6%, while Saudi Arabia saw growth of USD 152.3 mn, up 2.6%. KSA and Kuwait also followed behind the UAE in gross loan growth, up 2.5% q-o-q in Saudi Arabia to reach USD 20.3 bn and up 4.2% in Kuwait to USD 10.8 bn.

ICYMI- In 1Q 2025, UAE banks posted the biggest absolute net income growth in the region, up 11.8% q-o-q, while deposits jumped 6.7% to USD 903.8 bn. GCC-wide net income hit a record USD 15.6 bn, with Saudi banks also recording strong double-digit annual net income growth.

Emirates NBD grants Emirates Airlines USD 350 mn aircraft financing solution to onboard two new aircrafts

Emirates NBD inked a USD 350 mn financing agreement with Emirates Airlines for two Boeing 777-200 long range freighter aircraft, according to a statement published on Thursday. The mortgage-style facility will support the delivery of the carriers as well as Emirates’ plans to expand its SkyCargo arm.

REMEMBER- Emirates to expand cargo fleet: Emirates ordered five additional Boeing 777 freighters back in October last year — originally set for delivery in 2025-2026, bringing its total freighter orderbook to 21. The airline is coping with industry-wide supply chain disruptions by earmarking USD 5 bn toward retrofitting its existing aircraft. Emirates Skycargo is slated to double its existing fleet of 11 units to 21 production-built Boeing 777s by December 2026.

A landmark agreement: The facility is a milestone for Emirates NBD — marking the bank’s first aircraft dedicated funding partnership. For Emirates, it will also be the first time the carrier opts for a direct, mortgage-style financing structure, barring a traditional offshore special purpose company setup.

This isn’t Emirates’ first rodeo with banks: Emirates tapped HSBC back in March as its sole senior arranger and original lender to finance the purchase of four additional Airbus A350-900 jets. This marks the airline’s return to the Japanese operating lease with call option (Jolco) market.

EGA posts AED 890 mn loss in 1H 2025

EMIRATES GLOBAL ALUMINIUM-

Emirates Global Aluminium (EGA) swung to a net loss of AED 890 mn in 1H 2025, from AED 1.8 bn in net income in the same period last year, according to its earnings release. Revenues rose 7.9% y-o-y to AED 15.1 bn.

What happened? The loss was driven by a AED 2.5 bn impairment after the Guinean government expropriated EGA’s Guinea Alumina Corporation subsidiary, halting all bauxite exports. The disruption raised costs at EGA’s alumina refinery, with aluminum segment margins narrowing to 22.8% from 27.5%. Underlying net income before Guinea adjustments fell to AED 1.6 bn.

Operations breakdown:

EGA’s alumina refinery produced 1.1 mn tons in the half, down from 1.2 mn tons last year;
Cast metal output held steady at 1.4 mn tons, with value-added premium aluminum rising to 84% of sales;
Sales of recycled aluminum surged, with RevivAL output climbing to 41k tons from just 2k a year earlier, while low-carbon CelestiAL sales grew to 52k tons from 44k.

REMEMBER- EGA is diversifying supply and ramping up new projects to offset the impact. It expanded Al Taweelah’s capacity by 50k tons per annum (tpa), is building a 170k tpa recycling plant in the UAE, and recently boosted output at its Minnesota facility. The company also signed long-term bauxite supply agreements with Ghana’s state aluminum body, partnered with Japan’s Sankyo Tateyama to broaden its product mix, and is said to be weighing a revival of its long-mooted IPO plans.

Ali Khalpey tapped to lead Cantor Fitzgerald’s Middle East investment banking + capital markets business

Cantor Fitzgerald hires ex-EFG banker to lead Middle East push: US investment bank Cantor Fitzgerald appointed our friend and former EFG Hermes equity capital markets head Ali Khalpey (LinkedIn) to lead its Middle East investment banking and capital markets business, Bloomberg reports, citing a staff memo it has seen. Khalpey, who starts in October and will be based in Abu Dhabi and Dubai, is tasked with building a 25-50 person team.

REMEMBER- Other investment banks looking to boost their regional presence include JPMorgan, currently planning to grow its staff by 100 across its Middle East operations.

Dubai bids to lure UK homebuyers amid weak AED

Reuters spotlighted Emirati real estate developers’ targeting of UK property investors, with a weaker AED — affected by its peg to the USD and Trump’s sweeping tariffs — making the UAE’s property market significantly cheaper for GBP buyers. UK investments in Dubai homes surged in 62% y-o-y in 2Q, breaking four years of stagnation and putting UK residents ahead of Indian nationals to become the emirate’s top foreign property buyers, according to UAE brokerage Betterhomes.

Emirati developers are also opening outposts in the UK, with developers like Binghatti, Danube, Damac, and Sobha establishing London offices or development arms, and Aldar acquiring UK-based property developer London Square. The emirate is among the top destinations for those leaving London, alongside wealth hotspots Monaco, Italy and Switzerland, property agents told Reuters. Binghatti launched flexible payment plans while Damac partnered with Chelsea soccer club to launch branded residences to appeal to British buyers.

ADX and Astana International Exchange link up

CAPITAL MARKETS-

ADX links up with Astana stock exchange: ADX and Kazakhstan’s Astana International Exchange (AIX) set up a link between their central securities depositories to boost cross-border financial and trade collaboration, according to an ADX statement (pdf). The link also aims to improve regional market integration.

ICYMI- The two exchanges signed an MoU on collaboration in 2021, which saw AIX join ADX’s Tabadul trading platform. The Kazakh exchange also established a cross-border securities link with Nasdaq Dubai earlier this year.

LOGISTICS-

DP World to manage Atlantis Dubai’s hospitality logistics: State-owned logistics giant DP World is partnering with Atlantis Dubai Resorts to manage hospitality logistics at two of its luxury resorts — Atlantis, The Palm and Atlantis The Royal, according to Dubai Media Office. DP World will manage the resorts’ daily operations and work to optimize their supply chain of nearly 60k products including perishables, dry goods, and specialty items.

DP World is also launching a new service to transport fresh produce from Morocco to the UK and Northern Europe, Dubai Media Office reports. The new sea route could cut delivery times for fruit and vegetable exports by up to two days by avoiding traffic at land crossings.

Details of the service: The Atlas service, slated to launch in November, will link Morocco’s Agadir and Casablanca hubs with DP World’s London Gateway and Antwerp Gateway terminals using two purpose-built vessels. The sea route has an annual capacity of up to 150k tons of fresh produce.

IN CONTEXT- Morocco exports over 6.5 mn metric tons of fruits and vegetables to Western Europe per year, with export trade growing over 20% annually.

HOSPITALITY-

Dubai is set to see 19 new hotels open in 2H 2025, adding around 5k rooms, Khaleej Times reports, citing consultancy Cavendish Maxwell. Most of the new supply will be in the upscale, upper-upscale, and luxury segments — which could temporarily weigh on occupancy rates. The added capacity is expected to create about 7.5k jobs, based on industry estimates of 1.5 jobs per room.

THE BACKDROP- Dubai welcomed 9.9 mn international visitors — up 6.1% y-o-y — in 1H 2025, driving hotel occupancy to 81.4% (+4.5% y-o-y) and average daily rates to AED 754.5 (+5.5%). The city’s room supply reached around 152k keys across 730 hotels by mid-2025, with two-thirds of inventory in the premium segments.

RETAIL-

Dubai Holding unifies retail portfolio under new brand: Dubai Holding Asset Management consolidated more than 40 malls and lifestyle destinations under a single brand — Dubai Retail, according to a statement. The portfolio spans 10 malls, 15 lifestyle destinations, and 18 retail centers with over 13 mn sq ft of gross leasable area and more than 6.5k retailers.

BACKGROUND- The move follows the integration of government-backed real estate firms Nakheel and Meydan into Dubai Holding last year. As part of the rebrand, Nakheel Mall has been renamed Palm Jumeirah Mall, and upcoming projects — including Al Khail Avenue, which will add 1.2 mn sq ft to the portfolio — are in the pipeline.

DEBT-

UAB gets Moody’s upgrade: Moody’s raised United Arab Bank’s (UAB) long-term and short-term deposit ratings to Baa2/P-2 from Baa3/P-3, with a stable outlook, UAB said in a statement. The agency also upgraded the bank’s baseline credit assessment to ba2 from ba3, citing stronger asset quality, profitability, and solvency, Moody’s said.

Behind the upgrade: UAB bolstered its capital base with an AED 1.0 bn rights issue and posted a 50.0% y-o-y rise in net income to AED 207.7 mn in 1H 2025, on total operating income of AED 373.5 mn and 11% asset growth. The bank’s NPL ratio fell to 2.2% in June 2025, down from 5.0% at end-2023, while loan-loss coverage improved to 148% from 98% in 2020.

ALSO FROM MOODY’S- Adnoc Murban rating affirmed at Aa2: Moody’s kept the long-term credit rating of Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) Murban — Adnoc’s debt-raising arm — at Aa2 with a stable outlook, according to a statement. The rating is tied to Abu Dhabi’s sovereign grade, with Moody’s highlighting Murban’s preferential access to 22.6 bn barrels of onshore reserves and its generation of more than USD 30 bn in 2024 revenue from marketing allocated crude — despite not holding concession rights.

REAL ESTATE-

Aldar to build UAE’s first Tesla Experience Center: Abu Dhabi-based real estate developer and investor Aldar is set to build a Tesla Experience Center in Abu Dhabi’s Yas Island, according to an ADX disclosure (pdf). The facility will be the first of its kind in the UAE and is slated for completion by 2027.

About the center: Located on the E12 highway connecting the capital to Dubai, the 5k sqm facility will include a showroom, a service center, and a delivery hall. It will also feature 170 parking spaces and 20 V4 Tesla Supercharger stalls, and is eyeing an Estidama 3 Pearl sustainability rating.

DIGITAL ASSETS-

Crypto firm QCP secures ADGM regulatory license: Singapore-based crypto trading firm QCP Group has received full Financial Services Permission (FSP) from the ADGM’s Financial Services Regulatory Authority (FSRA), in a move to bridge key markets in Asia and the Middle East, according to a press release. QCP is also licensed in Singapore and this latest approval allows it to offer regulated digital asset services in Abu Dhabi, including spot and derivatives trading, market making, and structured solutions for institutional clients.

MENA closed 271 M&A transactions in 1H 2025

M&A momentum in MENA bucks global trend: The Middle East recorded 271 transactions in 1H 2025, up 19% y-o-y, even as global M&A volumes fell 9%, according to PwC’s latest TransAct Middle East report (pdf).

The region’s performance comes as sovereign capital, regulatory reforms, and diversification agendas give dealmakers room to maneuver, even as oil prices soften and financing costs rise. The IMF has forecast GDP growth of 2.6% for MENA this year, up from 1.8% a year earlier, even as lower oil prices and higher financing costs weigh on exporters. The dealflow reflects those pressures, with buyers gravitating toward mid-sized, policy-driven transactions in digital infrastructure, healthcare, and green industry. In the absence of a global rebound, the region is leaning on domestically anchored M&A to sustain momentum.

The UAE retained its regional lead with 95 transactions in 1H 2025, while Egypt nearly doubled its tally to 86, and Saudi Arabia closed 59 plays. Together, the three markets accounted for 89% of all regional activity in 1H. Cross-border flows increasingly remained within the region, with intra-MENA transactions climbing to 134, which PwC says is a sign of “growing integration and investor confidence across the region.”

Transaction values tell a more cautious story: Nearly all of disclosed M&A came in at under USD 100 mn, while no megadeals of over USD 5 bn were struck for the second year running and only six transactions cleared the USD 100 mn mark. Smaller, faster-to-close agreements have become the preferred play as buyers target assets that can be financed without stretching balance sheets, particularly in volatile rate and oil environments. PwC also says this reflects a deliberate tilt toward targeted acquisitions that add capabilities and align with state priorities, rather than scale-for-scale’s sake.

Large-cap activity was scarce but still notable: Maaden’s USD 964 mn purchase of a 20.6% stake in Aluminium Bahrain stood out in industrials, while Elm’s USD 907 mn takeover of Thiqah reinforced Saudi Arabia’s push in digital services. Egypt saw one of its biggest recent plays with Al Ezz Group’s USD 881 mn acquisition of Ezz Steel, and Saudi’s Smart Accommodation added scale through its USD 666 mn buyout of Al Nakhla Management.

Sovereign wealth funds + corporates remain a decisive force: Gulf funds have funneled more of their firepower back home, with ADQ allocating 85% of its capital domestically in the first half of the year. That capital is underwriting the energy transition, localizing supply chains, and building digital sovereignty. Corporates anchored most of the transaction volume, while private equity funds sustained their role in cross-border transactions.

Sector trends mirrored the broader economic shift, with financial services leading activity with about 70 transactions, compared to 44 in 1H 2024. Egypt’s Qardy became the first local fintech to close a SPAC merger, raising USD 23 mn. Technology and telecoms were dominated by infrastructure rather than consumer apps, with G42’s USD 2.2 bn acquisition of a 40% stake in Khazna Data Center Holdings marking the half’s biggest transaction.

The outlook: Dealmaking is expected to remain concentrated in digital infrastructure, healthcare, and green industry, with sovereign backing and regulatory clarity keeping pipelines steady. Mid-sized, state-aligned plays are set to dominate through year-end, leaving the Middle East as one of the few regions where M&A is still gathering pace.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets are broadly in the green this morning, with Japan’s stock markets jumping on the back of the country’s Prime Minister Shigeru Ishiba resigning over the weekend after less than one year in office. The Nikkei is up 1.6%, while the Topix is up 1% to a record high. Elsewhere in the region, South Korea’s Kospi and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index are all trading up.

Across the pond, futures suggest that Wall Street will also open in the green later today, while investors will be keeping a close eye on inflation data coming out at the tail-end of the week.

ADX	10,034	-0.2% (YTD: +7.6%)
DFM	5,989	+0.3% (YTD: +16.2%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	4,830	+0.1% (YTD: +16.0%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	4.2% o/n	4.1% 1 yr
TASI	10,594	-0.6% (YTD: -12.0%)
EGX30	3,479	-0.3% (YTD: +12.7%)
S&P 500	6,238	-1.6% (YTD: 6.1%)
FTSE 100	9,124	-0.8% (YTD: +12.11%)
Euro Stoxx 50	4,972	-0.5% (YTD: +1.6%)
Brent crude	USD 80.8	-0.6%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.92	-7.9%
Gold	USD 2,701	-0.5%
BTC	USD 111,039	+0.6% (YTD: +18.8%)
Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	AED 3.62	0.0% (YTD: +3.9%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	149.5	+0.5% (YTD: +6.8%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	23.99	-2.9% (YTD: +38.3%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The DFM rose 0.3% on Thursday on turnover of AED 449.4 mn. The index is up 16.2% YTD.

In the green: Takaful Emarat (+2.1%), Amanat Holdings (+1.8%) and Emaar Properties (+1.8%).

In the red: Al Mal Capital REIT (-10.0%), Emirates Integrated Telecommunications Company (-2.9%) and Chimera S&P UAE Shariah ETF – Share class B – Income (-2.3%).

Over on the ADX, the index fell 0.2% on turnover of AED 792.4 mn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was up 0.1%.

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Sharjah Islamic Bank’s board of directors has authorized the sale of 167.7k treasury shares, according to an ADX disclosure (pdf). The sale represents 5.18% of the bank’s total shares.

UAE, Jordan leaders meet to discuss Palestine, bilateral ties

President Mohammed bin Zayed Al Nahyan met with Jordan’s King Abdullah II in Abu Dhabi yesterday to discuss regional developments, with a focus on the Palestinian issue, state news agency Wam reports. The leaders reiterated support for a two-state solution and warned against Israel’s annexation plans, settlement expansion, or forced displacement of Palestinians, saying such measures threaten regional sovereignty, peace, and stability.

CALENDAR

SEPTEMBER

9 September (Tuesday): Envision 2025, Atlantis, The Royal, Dubai.

8-10 September (Monday-Wednesday): DigiHealth exhibition, World Trade Center, Dubai.

8-10 September (Monday-Wednesday): WHX-Tech Expo, Dubai World Trade Center.

8-19 September (Monday-Friday): Universal Postal Congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

8-18 September (Monday-Thursday): BHM Capital Financial Services’s AED 200 mn rights issue will be open for subscriptions.

10-11 September (Wednesday-Thursday): MENA Public-Private Partnership Forum, Dubai.

10-11 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Annual International Government Communication Forum, Expo Center Sharjah.

10-20 September (Wednesday-Saturday): IFMA Youth World Muay Thai Championship, Abu Dhabi.

12-14 September (Friday-Sunday): The International Real Estate and Investment Show, Abu Dhabi.

17-18 September (Wednesday-Thursday): SHRM MENA hosts its Annual Conference + Expo, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

16-17 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

23-24 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): MENA EV Show, The Agenda, Dubai Media City.

24-25 September (Wednesday-Thursday): The KT UniExpo, The H Dubai.

24-25 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Mohammed Bin Rashid Leadership Forum, Mohammed Bin Rashid Center for Leadership Development, Dubai.

24-25 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Dubai World Congress for Self-Driving Transport, Dubai.

25-27 September (Thursday-Saturday): International Congress of Medical Excellence in Dermatology and Aesthetic Med, Dubai World Trade Center.

30 September (Tuesday): Africa Debate Conference, Dubai.

30 September (Tuesday): Dubai Podfest, Dubai.

OCTOBER

1-2 October (Thursday-Friday): World Green Economy Summit (WGES), Dubai World Trade Center.

30 September-1 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): MENA Investment Congress (MENA ICON), Abu Dhabi.

30 September-2 October (Tuesday-Thursday): The Water, Energy, Technology, and Environment Exhibition (Wetex), Dubai World Trade Center.

1 September-5 October (Monday-Saturday): DMCC Web3 Unleashed applications

3-16 October (Friday-Thursday): Dubai Home Festival.

7 October (Tuesday): Enterprise Egypt Forum 2025.

7-9 October (Tuesday-Thursday): The International Symposium on the System of Radiological Protection, the Ritz-Carlton Abu Dhabi, Grand Canal.

9 October (Thursday): Family Office Summit, Park Hyatt, Dubai.

9-15 October (Thursday-Wednesday): IUCN World Conservation Congress, Abu Dhabi.

12-15 October (Sunday-Wednesday): Expand North Star, Dubai Harbor.

14-16 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Global Future Councils, Dubai.

15-18 October (Wednesday-Saturday): Middle East Electric Vehicle Show, Expo Center Sharjah.

22 October (Wednesday): Reuters NEXT Gulf Summit, The St. Regis Saadiyat Island Resort, Abu Dhabi.

22-24 October (Wednesday-Friday): World Investment Conference, Expo Center Sharjah.

23 October (Thursday): S&P Global’s annual Islamic Finance Conference, DIFC Atrium, Dubai.

27 October (Monday): The UAE Africa Tourism Investment Summit, Dubai.

27-29 October (Monday-Wednesday): Future Hospitality Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

27-29 October (Monday-Wednesday): Asia Pacific Cities Summit, Dubai Exhibition Center.

28-29 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

NOVEMBER

1-2 November (Saturday-Sunday): Women’s Empowerment Convention (WE Convention), Atlantis The Royal, Dubai.

4-9 November (Tuesday-Saturday):Dubai Design Week, Dubai.

10-15 November (Monday-Saturday): SASC organizes Abu Dhabi Autonomous Week, Abu Dhabi.

11-17 November (Tuesday-Monday): International Council of Museums (ICOM) General Conference, Dubai

12 November (Wednesday): Dubai Business Forum, Cipriani South Street, New York City.

12-17 November (Wednesday-Monday): RoboCup Asia-Pacific, Khalifa University, Abu Dhabi.

13-15 November (Thursday-Saturday): International Financial Markets (ICA) Conference and Exhibition, Conrad Dubai.

15-17 November (Saturday-Monday): Myplant & Garden Middle East Green Expo, Dubai Exhibition Center, Expo City.

17-21 November (Monday-Friday): Dubai Airshow, Al Maktoum International Airport, Dubai.

18-19 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Dubai Future Forum, Museum of the Future, Dubai.

DECEMBER

1-3 December (Monday-Wednesday): Eid Al Etihad (UAE National Day).

2-5 December (Tuesday-Friday): Sotheby’s Abu Dhabi Collectors’ Week, Abu Dhabi

1-5 December (Monday-Friday): The World Congress of Neurosurgery, Dubai World Trade Center.

7-14 December (Sunday-Sunday): Asian Youth Para Games, APC headquarters, Dubai.

8 December (Monday): DeFi Technologies Insights Global Symposium, Emirates Palace, Abu Dhabi.

8-9 December (Monday-Tuesday): BTC Mena Conference, Adnec, Abu Dhabi.

8-9 December (Monday-Tuesday): Global AI Show 2025, Abu Dhabi.

8-10 December (Monday-Wednesday): Bridge media summit, Abu Dhabi.

8-11 December (Monday-Thursday): Abu Dhabi Finance Week, Al Maryah Island.

9-10 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

13-15 December (Saturday-Monday): Mobile Developers Week, Abu Dhabi

18-23 December (Thursday-Tuesday): Games of the Future, Adnec, Abu Dhabi.

29-30 December (Monday-Tuesday): World Sports Summit, Dubai.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2025:

e& will complete Adnoc’s private 5G network
Executive Committee Meeting (EXCOM 2025) conference of the World Smart Sustainable Cities Organisation (WeGO)

Signposted to happen sometime in 2H 2025:

Closing of XRG’s acquisition of Covestro

JANUARY 2026

1 January: Client asset regime changes in Dubai International Financial Center take effect.

9-11 January (Friday-Sunday): 1 Bn Followers Summit, UAE.

28-29 January (Wednesday-Thursday): IBA Arbitration Day Conference, Abu Dhabi.

28-30 January (Wednesday-Friday): World Customs Organization Technology Conference, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

FEBRUARY 2026

3-5 February (Tuesday-Thursday): The World Governments Summit.

12-15 February (Thursday-Sunday): The Society for Incentive Travel Excellence Global Conference, Abu Dhabi.

9-13 February (Monday-Friday): The World Health Expo (WHX), Dubai.

JUNE 2026

15 June-15 September (Monday-Thursday): Dubai Mallathon, Dubai.

Signposted to happen in 2026:

31 March – 2 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Arab Media Summit, Dubai.
13-15 April ( Monday-Wednesday) : The International Glass Manufacturing Show, Dubai.
14-16 April: (Tuesday-Thursday): the International Property Show, Sheikh Zayed Rd, Dubai.
11-13 May (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center.
The UAE to host the Arab Competition Forum
Dubai to host the Arab Actuarial Conference
United Nations Water Conference
Dubai Future Finance Week
Investopia Global Talks, Tashkent

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project.
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime between 2027 and 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai.
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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