Non-oil business activity slows in January

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Eshraq to invest in Shuaa’s bond offering? + Dubai to lead luxury real estate price growth this year -Savills

id: 2025-02-06-03:02:48:699t Good morning, friends. It’s another busy day of news, with fresh data on non-oil sector activity in January and the UAE’s non-oil foreign trade in 2024. Let’s dive in.

WEATHER- We’re in for another sunny day across the country, according to the National Center of Meteorology (pdf). Temperatures today will hit 28°C in Dubai with an overnight low of 18°C, and 27°C in Abu Dhabi before cooling to an overnight low of 18°C.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Eshraq considers stake in Shuaa’s bond offering: Real estate investment firm Eshraq Investments is set to discuss a potential investment in Shuaa Capital’s mandatory convertible bond offering during a board meeting tomorrow, it said in an ADX disclosure (pdf).

REMEMBER- Investment platform Shuaa Capital plans to issue a total of AED 642.5 mn in mandatory convertible bonds for capital optimization. The firm was set to vote on the issuance of AED 425.5 mn in convertible bonds and their conversion into shares during a general assembly meeting earlier this week, which was later postponed (pdf) to 17 February, following approval from its board of directors last year.

It’s all part of a correction plan: The company went through a restructuring in 2024 after reaching an agreement with bondholders to extend the payment terms for USD 150 mn worth of bonds, appointing a new management team, and settling around AED 500 mn in margin facilities. It also finalized an agreement with its senior creditor to restructure AED 208 mn in outstanding facilities and secured a USD 300 mn seven-year facility from the National Bank of Fujairah and the Arab Energy Fund just last month.

#2- Dubai is set to see the fastest growth in luxury real estate prices globally in 2025, with values forecast to climb 8% to 9.9%, according to a Savills report. Global luxury property values are expected to grow by 1.6% on average — down from 2.2% in 2024 — with cities like Sydney, Madrid, Barcelona, Lisbon, and Cape Town also seeing gains, while London, Singapore, Shenzhen, and San Francisco are expected to face declines due to policy changes and market headwinds.

#3- The UAE’s judicial system has begun trialing AI-powered decision-making in select cases, Khaleej Times reports, citing Salem Ali Juma Al Zaabi, head of Emergency, Crisis, and Disaster Prosecution.

The AI is being tested in cases “where the outcome is very clear,” Al Zaabi said at AI Everything in Abu Dhabi, stressing that “in the justice sector, it is important not to act slow.” While AI aids in document analysis, translation, and case summaries, he clarified that decision-making remains under human oversight due to ethical considerations.

DATA POINTS-

#1-Abu Dhabi Airports sees record passenger and cargo growth in 2024: Passenger traffic rose 28.1% at Abu Dhabi Airports in 2024 to 29.4 mn travelers, according to an Abu Dhabi Media Office statement. Zayed International Airport was the key growth driver, adding 29 new destinations and welcoming eight new airlines, including British Airways and Air Astana. Aircraft movements increased 10%, to 249k in 2024, with strong demand from the UK, India, Qatar, and Egypt.

Cargo volumes also saw a major boost, climbing 21% y-o-y to 678.9k tonnes. The surge was supported by infrastructure investments, including a new AED 85 mn storage facility in Al Falah and a AED 320 mn warehouse project with Radius Group.

PSAs-

#1-UAE opens applications for 10-year Blue Residency visa: The UAE has begun accepting applications for its 10-year Blue Residency visa, designed for environmental experts, sustainability advocates, and climate change specialists, Gulf News reports. Eligible applicants include scientists, researchers, investors, entrepreneurs, and award-winning environmentalists.

Applications are processed via the Federal Authority for Identity, Citizenship, Customs, and Port Security through its smart services platform. The visa requires proof of contributions to sustainability and climate action, and applicants must first submit a nomination request before proceeding with the visa application.

REMEMBER-The Blue Residency visa was first approved in May 2024 by Dubai Ruler Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum as a 10-year residency program for professionals making extraordinary contributions to environmental sustainability.

#2- You might now get served for unlawful use of the Emirate of Dubai and Government of Dubai emblems, after Dubai officials enacted a law against their use by unauthorized entities, according to the Dubai Media Office. Use is limited to authorized locations, events, documents, and seals, with use now requiring permission from the Chairman of Dubai’s Ruler’s Court.

Criminal penalties and fines: Violations may result in imprisonment of up to five years or fines between AED 100k and AED 500k, or both. The law takes effect upon publication in the Official Gazette, with implementation resolutions to be issued by the chairman of The Executive Council.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- The Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open continues today with the quarter finals at Zayed Sports City. The big games to watch out for today:

Starting 11am: Markéta Vondroušová vs. Belinda Bencic and Leylah Fernandez vs. Ashlyn Krueger
After 5pm: Elena Rybakina vs. Ons Jabeur, and Linda Nosková vs. Magda Linette

You can still buy tickets for the tournament, which ends on 8 February, here.

#2- Medlab Middle East ‘s final day is in full swing at Dubai World Trade Center. The event is a platform for attendees to explore the latest innovations in medical lab technologies, diagnostics, and research. It features the participation of laboratory manufacturers, healthcare experts, procurement professionals, suppliers, and distributors from across the region.

#3- AI Everything Global will wrap up today at the Dubai Exhibition Center. The event brings together policymakers, industry leaders, and tech pioneers to explore AI’s transformative role across many industries.

#4- The International Dental Conference and Arab Dental Exhibition is on its final day at the Dubai World Trade Center. The event hosts visitors, brands, companies, speakers, lectures, seminars, scientific discussions, and country pavilions showcasing dental innovations.

#5- The SWAAC ELSO Annual Conference 2025 will run today through 8 February at the Conrad Hotel Abu Dhabi, bringing over 1k global experts, doctors and lecturers in Extracorporeal Membrane Oxygenation (ECMO). The conference will feature discussions on ECMO research, clinical advancements, and future priorities in life-saving therapies.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

OpenAI CEO Sam Altman is set to visit the UAE this week to discuss raising funds with state-backed tech-focused investor MGX, Reuters reports, citing sources with knowledge of the matter. The talks come as competition in AI heats up, with Chinese rival DeepSeek emerging as a lower-cost alternative to OpenAI’s technology. OpenAI is also in talks with SoftBank to lead a funding round of up to USD 40 bn, which would value the ChatGPT maker at USD 300 bn, sources have said.

REMEMBER-MGX took part in OpenAI’s USD 6.6 bn funding round last year. The investment firm is also backing Stargate, a joint venture with OpenAI, SoftBank, and Oracle that plans to invest USD 100 bn in AI infrastructure in the US, ramping up to as much as USD 500 bn over the next four years. It has also invested in Elon Musk’s rival AI startup xAI.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

For the second morning running, the foreign pages are laser-focused on Trump’s proposal for Gaza’s future, which was met with a strong stance from international leaders.

Calls of permanently displacing Gazans sparked a strong international outcry with UN Secretary General Antonio Guterres calling for adherence to international law and avoiding “any form of ethnic cleansing.” Meanwhile, German Foreign Minister Annalena Baerbock warned the plan would “lead to new suffering and new hatred.” The UAE also rejected any infringement on Palestinians’ “unalienable rights” in a statement yesterday.

Toning down: Trump’s aides scrambled to walk back the most controversial elements of his proposal, stating he did not commit to deploying US troops in Gaza and clarifying a resettlement would be temporary to pave the way for reconstruction efforts and that the US will not pay the bills. (Bloomberg | New York Times | FT)

AND IN THE BUSINESS PAGES- Beijing filed a World Trade Organization complaint against “protectionist” 10% tariffs on Chinese imports. Trump had said earlier he was in “no hurry” to speak with President Xi Jinping.

ALSO- It’s not looking good for Nissan + Honda: Negotiations over the USD 60 bn anticipated merger — that would have created the world’s third-biggest automaker — have reportedly hit a wall. One major sticking point was Honda wanting a bigger piece of the holding company, with Nissan becoming a subsidiary — a plan the latter rejected as it opted for a merger of equals. (Reuters | New York Times | WSJ)

MARKET WATCH-

TheAUM of the world’s largest sovereign wealth fund in UAE stocks rose 57% on an annual basis: Norway’s Government Pension Fund Global held AED 11.3 bn worth of stocks in 42 listed Emirati companies as of 31 December 2024, Mubasher reports citing data (pdf) from the fund’s webpage. This marks a 56.9% increase in value from AED 7.2 bn in some 36 companies on 31 December 2023.

Heavy on education + F&B + transport: The fund’s biggest equity position is in DFM-listed K-12 operator Taaleem Holdings at 5%, followed by ADX-listed food and beverages giant Agthia Group at 4.87% and mobility solutions provider Dubai Taxi at 3.16%.

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The UAE’s non-oil business activity slows slightly in January

The UAE’s non-oil activity kicked off 2025 with a slight slowdown in January from the nine-month high achieved in December, with the sector continuing to see robust expansions in activity and new business, according to S&P Global’s UAE PMI (pdf). The headline figure reached 55.0, down from 55.4 in December. This is the first dip in the UAE’s PMI in three months.

REMEMBER- The all-important 50.0 mark is the threshold separating contraction from growth. Anything above 50 denotes expansion, while anything below indicates contraction.

New orders dropped slightly from last month’s nine-month high: The new orders subindex eased slightly to 59.0 in January, down from 59.3 in the previous month, with businesses reporting an uplift in domestic demand, Reuters reports. Meanwhile, growth in new export orders nearly stalled, with businesses reporting that the rise in demand was mainly domestic-driven. Consequently, output rates rose sharply on the back of a strong sales upturn.

Improved sales had little impact on hiring, with companies reporting a negligible increase in new employment. “A persistently low rate of employment growth suggests that firms are lacking the ability to hire in order to tackle backlog issues,” S&P Global senior economist David Owen said.

Cooling inflation caused firms to up input purchases: Input cost inflation fell to a 13-month low in January, which came “despite evidence of higher costs for transport and machinery” as well as a faster rise in salaries. A slowdown in inflation helped businesses boost their purchases of inputs, which firms used to “service existing orders rather than build up warehouses,” with inventories only seeing marginal growth during the month. “Input resources similarly remain weak, which seems to be aggravating capacity pressures as work-in-hand rose at the quickest pace in eight months in January,” according to Owen.

Business sentiment was low despite positive results: Firms’ optimism about future activity in the UAE hit its lowest mark in over two years, with just 9% of participants predicting growth over the next year. Many firms cited “robust competition” as one of the key factors holding back optimism in the country. “Strong competition and cash flow concerns arising from heavy backlogs have appeared to sow doubt among firms that they can continue to boost their revenues, underlining efforts to reduce the gap between output and input prices,” Owen said.

“The softening of business sentiment seems to be largely due to competitive pressures and perhaps uncertainty about the external environment. The overall PMI continues to indicate robust expansion in the non-oil sector, registering 55.0, the second-highest reading since May 2024,” GCC Economist and Khalij Economics Director Justin Alexander told EnterpriseAM UAE.

International institutions are positive about the UAE’s non-oil activity this year: Fitch Solutions’ research unit BMI sees the non-oil sector growing further in 2025 on the back of easing inflationary pressures, especially in the transportation sector, lower borrowing costs, and large infrastructure and construction projects across all emirates, BMI’s MENA Senior Country Risk Analyst Mariette Hanna said last month. Meanwhile, Moody’s sees the UAE’s non-oil economy growing by over 5% this year, with the agency saying that the UAE’s growth will be driven by infrastructure projects and economic diversification initiatives.

“Non-oil trade will continue to benefit from the signing of the comprehensive economic partnership agreements,” Hanna said, adding that recent data showed that non-oil trade expanded by 15% y-o-y in value and 6.5% y-o-y in volume in the first nine months of 2024.

REFRESHER ON LAST YEAR’S NON-OIL ACTIVITY- Non-oil private sector activity grew at its lowest rate in five months in January 2024, with the first reading of the year coming in at 56.6. It would then move up to 57.1 in February before dropping back slightly to 56.9 in March. The pace of expansion gradually decelerated between April (55.3) and July (53.7), amid disruptions due to the April floods, before regaining momentum in August (54.2). This was followed by a slight dip in September (53.8), from which the economy would rebound in October (54.1) and then further to 54.2 in November, before capping off the year with its best performance in nine months in December (55.4).

MEANWHILE, IN DUBAI-

Business conditions in Dubai also improved at a slightly slower pace in January, with the Dubai PMI slipping to 55.3, marginally below December’s nine-month high of 55.5. Total business activity expanded due to favourable market conditions and improvements in

sales and customer bases, creating new business inflows. Cost pressures also cooled down, backed by a decline in input price inflation to a three-month low.

Employment also rose, but only at a slight rate due to a “a subdued outlook for future business activity,” while the pace of input price inflation fell to a three-month low.

Expectations for the coming year are low in Dubai: Output expectations among businesses in the emirate dropped to their lowest level in over four years, according to the report.

ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION-

Non-oil sector growth in Saudi Arabia recorded its best performance since September 2014 in January, with the Kingdom seeing the fastest increase in total new orders since June 2011. The seasonally adjusted headline figure inched up to 60.5, up from 58.4 in December, moving it well beyond the 50.0 mark that separates growth from contraction.

Egypt’s non-oil private activity expanded at its highest rate in over four years in January, buoyed by a solid increase in output and sales volumes. The headline reading rose to 50.7 from 48.1 in December, marking the second time the country's non-oil activity has hit the expansion territory since November 2020.

The UAE’s non-oil foreign trade hit AED 3 tn in 2024

The UAE’s non-oil foreign trade grew 14.6% y-o-y to AED 3 tn in 2024, outpacing global trade growth of just 2%, Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum said on X. Economic partnership agreements contributed significantly, with non-oil exports under these partnerships rising by 42% y-o-y to AED 135 bn in 2024, Al Maktoum said.

This marks a major step toward the UAE’s goal of reaching AED 4 tn in annual foreign trade by 2031, with 75% of that target already achieved in 2024.

Non-oil goods exports were the key drivers of growth, increasing by 27.6% y-o-y to AED 561.2 bn, accounting for 18.8% of total foreign trade last year, state news agency Wam reports. The UAE’s exports to its top 10 trade partners climbed by 37.1% y-o-y, while exports to other countries rose by 13.4% y-o-y. Major export commodities included gold, jewelry, cigarettes, aluminum, copper wires, printed materials, perfumes, and iron-based products. The re-export sector grew by 7.3% y-o-y to AED 734.4 bn in 2024.

Non-oil imports reached AED 1.7 tn in 2024, up 14.2% y-o-y from 2023. Imports from the country’s top 10 trade partners grew by 6.7% y-o-y, while imports from other nations increased by 22.3% y-o-y. Key imports included gold, mobile phones, petroleum oils, automobiles, jewelry, diamonds, and computers.

The trade figures align with the cabinet’s 2024 projections, which saw foreign trade exceeding AED 2.8 tn in 2024, with non-oil exports set to top AED 540 bn, imports over AED 1.6 tn, and re-exports crossing AED 700 bn. Non-oil foreign trade amounted to AED 3.5 tn in 2023, while total foreign trade reached a record AED 4.5 tn in the same year.

Economic agreements surged in 2024: The UAE signed economic partnership agreements with New Zealand and Kenya last month, as well as Jordan and Serbia in October, and agreed with India to set up a food corridor during the same month. Negotiations with Malaysia and the Eurasian Economic Union to set up an economic partnership were finalized and an agreement with Australia in September is set to remove tariffs and trade barriers. Earlier last year, the country inked agreements with Colombia, Costa Rica, Chile, Mauritius, Vietnam, and South Korea and finalized others, including with Ukraine.

The story got ink from Reuters.

DFM amends requirements for listing on the main market

The Dubai Financial Market (DFM) amended the requirements for listing on the main market as a “category one” firm, with the regulations taking effect immediately, according to a DFM circular (pdf).

What changed? The DFM added a requirement for companies listed on the main market that net shareholders’ equity must not be less than 100% of its paid-up capital, according to the amendments. Companies will also be automatically transferred from the first category to the second if trading on their shares is suspended for six months or more.

Existing requirements for companies to be listed on the main market and not as a “category two” company include:

Having a minimum of 100 shareholders, with at least 20% of shares in freefloat;
The company’s losses are less than 50% of its paid-up capital;
The share capital of the company is fully paid up.

Union Properties slashes debt + secures new funding

Dubai-based Union Properties reduced its legacy debt to AED 575 mn by the end of 2024, down from AED 1.5 bn in 2022, according to a DFM disclosure (pdf). The company divested some AED 1.3 bn assets, which funded debt settlements and new real estate projects, alongside an AED 82 mn decline in financing costs in 2024. The developer aims to further lower its debt by AED 150 mn in 1Q 2025.

ALSO- The company secured AED 150 mn in new bank loans, the disclosure said, without disclosing the name of the banks offering them loans. The capital injection will be used to support strategic investments over the next 18 months, with a projected annual recurring income of AED 40 mn. As part of its growth strategy, the developer is set to launch two new mixed-use projects in Dubai, and retains 10 mn sq ft of gross floor area earmarked for future development.

REMEMBER- Union Properties, one of several developers still navigating the aftermath of Dubai’s 2009 property market correction, has long been managing significant debt repayments to Emirates NBD. The company restructured USD 257.5 mn in debt in 2020 and reached a settlement agreement in February 2024, repaying AED 850 mn within nine months. In February, the Motor City developer also finalized a settlement agreement with Dubailand, securing a no-objection certificate to repurpose its land in Motor City in exchange for a payment of AED 400 mn paid in installments over three years.

Resilience amidst volatility: the Middle East’s economic trajectory in 2025

Forecasting the economic trajectory of 2025 is no small feat, especially given the unprecedented volatility we face. The global stage, shaped by shifting geopolitical sands and economic recalibrations, presents both opportunities and challenges for the Middle East.

As we enter the new year, the specter of higher tariffs remains a threat, with potential inflationary repercussions and prolonged high-interest rates. For the oil-dependent economies of this region, these factors could dampen global oil demand, potentially driving prices below the critical USD 70-per-barrel mark. This scenario would introduce fiscal pressures for nations like Saudi Arabia, whose ambitious development projects necessitate oil prices in the high USD 70s for break-even.

Despite these challenges, the Middle East remains a study in contrasts. Economies like the UAE have showcased remarkable fiscal prudence. Dubai, for instance, has transformed its debt-to-GDP ratio from a staggering 100% a decade ago to a manageable 30% today, reflecting meticulous fiscal management and diversification. Such strides underscore the region’s capacity to adapt and thrive.

However, vulnerabilities persist. Countries with less fiscal resilience may find themselves grappling with heightened external pressures, especially as traditional financial lifelines become less reliable. Conversely, countries like Oman, having capitalized on prior periods of high oil prices, enters 2025 on relatively stable ground.

One striking trend in recent years has been the evolution of capital markets in the Middle East. Sovereign and GRE (government-related entities) issuers have led the charge, setting benchmarks and driving the transition from loan markets to capital market instruments. This shift reflects a maturing financial ecosystem that is increasingly attractive to global investors. Over the past two years, debut issuers have emerged in significant numbers, underpinned by careful preparation and growing investor appetite.

The influx of global asset managers and mushrooming of their regional counterparts into hubs like Dubai and Abu Dhabi is reshaping the region’s financial landscape. Their presence in the region completes the ecosystem and introduces further sophistication in the market. Propped up by a mix of Middle Eastern and international liquidity, these platforms are not only targeting local investments; but are also seeking diversification across issuances from other frontier markets. This positions the region as both a beneficiary and a facilitator of global capital flows.

Yet, the private sector remains cautious. Elevated interest rates have stymied substantial capital expenditures, limiting its role in driving economic growth. A return to robust private sector participation may hinge on a tangible reduction in borrowing costs—a development unlikely before late 2025 or 2026.

In a world of shifting paradigms, the Middle East stands out for its capacity to adapt. While 2025 may bring volatility, the region’s growing financial sophistication, prudent fiscal policies, and strategic diversification efforts suggest it is better equipped to navigate the challenges ahead than during past crises. Resilience, once again, will be its strongest asset.

Chiradeep Deb, Head of Investment Banking at Mashreq

United Arab Bank and DAE report the year’s earnings

UNITED ARAB BANK-

United Arab Bank (UAB) reported a net income of AED 301 mn for 2024, up 17.9% y-o-y, according to the bank’s financials (pdf). The growth in net income was driven by improved operating performance and lower net impairment charges, the lender said in its earnings release (pdf).

Operating income rose 5.1% y-o-y to AED 605.8 mn, while total assets climbed 22% to AED 21.5 bn, supported by a 23% increase in loans, advances, and Islamic financing.

DUBAI AEROSPACE ENTERPRISE-

Dubai Aerospace Enterprise (DAE) saw its net income widen 36.2% y-o-y to USD 477.5 mn in 2024, according to its financials (pdf). The company’s revenues rose 8.7% y-o-y to USD 1.4 bn during the same period.

Driving the growth: The bulk of the top line comprises net lease revenues of USD 1.2 bn, which grew 5.6% y-o-y on the back of aircraft acquisitions and lease placements of previously grounded aircraft. A rise in engineering maintenance service revenues also contributed to topline growth, rising by 32.8% y-o-y to reach USD 186.4 mn. The company also cited higher income from operations and ins. recoveries.

ICYMI: DAE saw its net income rise 54.9% y-o-y to USD 310.8 mn in 9M 2024, with revenues growing 2.8% y-o-y to USD 1 bn during the period.

Adia appoints Mustapha Argane as investment manager + HSBC appoints new MENAT banking head

Adia taps new investment manager: The Abu Dhabi Investment Authority (Adia) appointed Mustapha Argane (LinkedIn) as investment manager, Securities Finance Times reports. He joins from Société Générale Corporate and Investment Banking (SGCIB), where he served as an equity finance trader for more than seven years.

HSBC has appointed Karim Tannir as head of the group’s new Middle East, North Africa, and Turkey banking division, Bloomberg writes, citing a staff memo. Tannir joined the bank in 2023 as vice chairman of global banking in the Menat region, after spending 25 years with JPMorgan.

Almal Development targets growth in Bali and Thailand

REAL ESTATE-

#1- Almal Development eyes local and southeast Asia expansion: Dubai-based investment and development firm Almal Real Estate Development is planning to expand into new verticals and international markets as part of its growth plan for the next five years, according to a press release. The firm will expand into Bali and Thailand to develop residential community projects for both local and international clients, and will also grow its predominantly residential portfolio to encompass commercial projects, including a business center project they have named Smart Space in the UAE, to meet growing demand for office space.

#2- Work starts on AED 100 mn Kasco + Evolutions project: Kasco Group ’s real estate arm Kasco Developments and real estate intelligence hub Evolutions began construction on a residential building in the Al Jaddaf Waterfront area with investments of AED 100 mn, according to a joint press release (pdf). The project, dubbed Volna, is slated for handover in 2Q 2026. Last September, Kasco said it plans to invest AED 1.2 bn in three projects in the Business Bay and Al Jaddaf.

WASTE MANAGEMENT-

ENEC granted licence to search for nuclear waste disposal site: The UAE’s Federal Authority for Nuclear Regulation (FANR) granted Emirates Nuclear Energy Company (ENEC) a license to explore potential sites for disposing of low-level nuclear waste, according to Khaleej Times reports. Once a suitable location is identified, ENEC will be the only entity permitted to develop and operate a waste disposal facility, FANR Director General Christer Viktorsson said.

What’s low-level waste? This includes materials like protective gear and equipment used in nuclear plant operations, which does not pose a significant danger but still requires secure containment for up to a century, Viktorsson explained. In addition, FANR is moving forward with plans for an interim storage facility to manage high-level waste, such as spent nuclear fuel, which is currently kept in deep water pools near the reactors for cooling and radiation shielding.

CONSTRUCTION-

Khansaheb appointed as main contractor for first phase of Dubai Exhibition Center expansion: Dubai-based Khansaheb Civil Engineering was appointed as the main contractor for the first phase of the AED 10 bn (USD 2.7 bn) Dubai Exhibition Center expansion at Expo City Dubai, according to a press release. The project, set for completion by 2026, will increase DEC’s capacity to 140k sqm, nearly 2.5 times its current size.

Khansaheb’s scope includes the 34k sqm South Hall and 30k sqm North Hall, with steel frame superstructures, composite cladding, and MEP installations. Once completed, the expansion will boost DEC’s visitor capacity to 50k people daily.

ICYMI- In October, Dubai World Trade Centre appointed UK-based Mace Group as the program delivery consultant for the project.

FINANCE-

The Central Bank of the UAE and the Dubai Economic Security Center inked an MoU to enhance cooperation in combating financial crime, according to a press release (pdf). The MoU focuses on information-sharing and developing best practices, and addresses the UAE's role in the Financial Action Task Force — the G7’s initiative against financial crime — aiming to improve national capabilities through staff training and awareness campaigns.

Trump’s tariffs haven’t scared investors away from Chinese stocks just yet

Chinese stocks shake off Trump tariffs, riding the DeepSeek hype: Chinese stocks are holding their ground despite the latest round of US tariffs as optimism over China’s AI sector and expectations of policy support offset the building US-China trade war, Reuters reports. The rally in AI stocks — driven by excitement around Chinese startup DeepSeek’s new low-cost AI model DeepSeek V3 — is fueling investor confidence even as markets continue to digest US President Donald Trump’s 10% tariffs on USD 450 bn worth of Chinese goods.

Markets are shrugging off trade tensions — at least for now: Trump’s latest trade move, while a clear escalation, was not as aggressive as markets had anticipated. Investors had largely priced in the 10% tariffs, with a stock market rally in Hong Kong this week offering some initial proof. “China’s market will likely overlook the tariff disruptions, as DeepSeek is repairing risk appetite, while investors look forward to more proactive domestic policies,” Kaiyuan Securities Analyst Wei Jixing told Reuters. The expectations that Beijing will roll out fresh stimulus measures, combined with bullish sentiment in AI and electric vehicles, has helped keep market nerves in check.

A mixed bag across stock indices: Aside from some profit-taking, overall declines following Trump’s tariffs were limited. The CSI 300 and Shanghai Composite both dipped around 0.6%, while Hong Kong’s Hang Seng Index lost 0.9% after a strong run. Tech-heavy Chinese stocks listed in Hong Kong climbed more than 4% this week, hitting a three-month high, with the sector’s biggest players rallying nearly 7%. Meanwhile, AI stocks in mainland China surged 3% as investors caught up to Hong Kong’s earlier gains.

PBOC holds firm in currency policy: The People’s Bank of China (PBOC) set the CNY’s daily reference rate at CNY 7.17 against the greenback, its strongest level since November, signaling that Beijing is not rushing to weaken the currency in response to Trump’s tariffs. This contrasts with its response to tariffs slapped on the country during Trump’s first term, when China let the currency slide to offset the impact of tariffs and improve the competitiveness of its exports.

Investors are staying cautious, but no panic yet: With policymakers bracing for prolonged tensions, there’s hope that Trump’s softer-than-expected tariffs and his upcoming talks with Chinese counterpart Xi Jinping could provide room for negotiations. “On the whole, having a trade war is not what the market wants. But investors are less likely to panic this time,” abrdn’s Investment Director Elizabeth Kwik told the newswire.

Investors are also watching closely for any future moves by China’s central bank, as further depreciation could indicate Beijing expects prolonged tensions with Trump and is preparing for a drawn-out trade war.

The news also got ink from Bloomberg.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are mostly in the green in early trading this morning, with Japan’s Nikkei up 0.2%, Shanghai Composite up 0.2%, and South Korea’s Kospi up 0.6%.

ADX	9,585	0.0% (YTD: +1.8%)
DFM	5,219	0.0% (YTD: +1.2%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	4,362	-0.2% (YTD: +4.8%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	4.0% o/n	4.4% 1 yr
Tadawul	12,414	-0.2% (YTD: +3.1%)
EGX30	29,736	+0.2% (YTD: 0.0%)
S&P 500	6,061	+0.4% (YTD: +3.1%)
FTSE 100	8,623	+0.6% (YTD: +5.5%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,271	+0.1% (YTD: +7.7%)
Brent crude	USD 74.69	-2.0%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.36	+3.3%
Gold	USD 2,893	+0.6%
BTC	USD 96,541	0.0% (YTD: +3.3%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The ADX stayed flat yesterday on turnover of AED 1.2 bn. The index is up 1.8% YTD.

In the green: Hayah Insurance Company (+15.0%), Fujairah Cement Industries (+10.4%) and Al Khaleej Investment (+6.0%).

In the red: National Bank of Umm Al Qaiwain (-1.3%), Taqa (-1.3%) and e& (-1.2%).

Over on the DFM, the index also stayed flat on turnover of AED 533.1 mn. Meanwhile Nasdaq Dubai fell 0.2%.

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Emirates Driving’s board of directors has proposed a 17 fils per share dividend for 2024, pending approval at the annual general meeting, according to an ADX disclosure (pdf).

Agility issues EUR 75.6 mn in corporate guarantees for DSV shares: ADX-listed logistics firm Agility Global issued EUR 75.6 mn in corporate guarantees to existing hedging banks linked to its stake in Danish logistics firm DSV, according to an ADX disclosure (pdf). The guarantees are part of an optimization of the company’s hedging structure.

Background: Agility’s Global Integrated Logistics business acquired a stake in DSV in 2021. The company confirmed that the number of hedged shares remains unchanged and that no additional funding was provided as part of the latest hedging structure optimization.

The UAE facilitates another Russia-Ukraine prisoner exchange

The UAE facilitated the exchange of 300 captives between Russia and Ukraine yesterday, with each side releasing 150 prisoners, Wam reports. This exchange increases the total number of captives exchanged through UAE mediation efforts to 2.8k

REMEMBER- The UAE has played a key mediating role in the Russia-Ukraine war. The country mediated the year’s first prisoner exchange between Russia and Ukraine in 2025 in January, with each side swapping 25 prisoners.

Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan received a phone call today from King Abdullah II bin Al Hussein of Jordan, Wam reports. The leaders discussed bilateral ties between the UAE and Jordan, with the conversation covering regional and international issues of mutual concern, focusing on recent developments in the Middle East. Both leaders emphasized the need to improve security and stability in the region and to prevent the expansion of conflict.

The UAE and Argentina discussed expanding economic cooperation at a high-level seminar in Abu Dhabi, hosted by the Economy Ministry and the Abu Dhabi Chamber of Commerce and Industry, state news agency Wam reports. The event was held during a visit by Argentina’s Foreign Minister Gerardo Werthein. The event highlighted Argentina’s new Incentive Regime for Large Investments, which offers tax breaks and regulatory stability to attract foreign investors.

UAE Foreign Trade Minister Thani Al Zeyoudi emphasized the UAE’s interest in boosting trade and investment in Argentina, while the Argentinian minister highlighted that the UAE is a key trade and investment hub, and that the new incentive regime can help attract Emirati investments in sectors like mining, energy, infrastructure, and technology.

CALENDAR

FEBRUARY

1-6 February (Saturday-Thursday): Dubai Fashion Week, Dubai Design District.

1-8 February (Saturday-Saturday): The Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open, Zayed Sports City's International Tennis Centre.

3-6 February (Monday-Thursday): Medlab Middle East, Dubai World Trade Center.

4-6 February (Tuesday-Thursday): AEEDC Dubai 2025, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

4-6 February (Tuesday-Thursday): AI Everything Global, The ST. Regis Saadiyat Island Resort, Abu Dhabi & Dubai Exhibition Center.

6 February (Thursday): Microsoft AI Tour 2025, Atlantis, the Palm, Dubai.

6-8 February (Thursday-Saturday): SWAAC ELSO Annual Conference 2025, Conrad Hotel Abu Dhabi.

7 February-29 April (Friday-Tuesday): The Abu Dhabi Festival, Abu Dhabi.

8-20 February (Saturday-Thursday): Dubai Games 2025, Dubai.

8-9 February (Saturday-Sunday): 2025 Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Jiu-Jitsu ChampionshipRound 2, Dubai.

10 February (Monday): The Arab Meeting for Young Leaders, World Government Summit, Dubai.

10-11 February (Monday-Tuesday) MRO Middle East and Aircraft Interiors Middle East, Dubai World Trade Center.

10-11 February (Monday-Tuesday): BreakBulk Middle East, the Dubai World Trade Center.

10-12 February (Monday-Wednesday): Japan Kyoto Trade Exhibition, Dubai Word Trade Center.

10-12 February (Monday-Wednesday): World Of Coffee Dubai 2025, Dubai World Trade Centre.

14 February (Friday): The deadline for the consultation period for the Securities and Commodities Authority's draft regulation on security tokens and commodity tokens.

14-16 February (Friday-Sunday): The UAE Muay Thai Championship, Space 42 Arena, Abu Dhabi.

16 February-1 March (Sunday-Saturday): Dubai Dutyfree Tennis Championships, Dubai Dutyfree Tennis Stadium in Al Garhoud.

16 February (Sunday): The International Defence Conference,The Emirates Palace, Abu Dhabi.

17-21 February (Monday-Friday): International Defence Exhibition (IDEX) in Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center.

17-21 February (Monday-Friday): Naval Defence Exhibition (NAVDEX) in Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center.

17-22 February (Monday-Saturday): Gulfood, Dubai World Trade Center.

19-20 February (Wednesday-Thuraday): The International Conference on Reprographic Rights, Sharjah.

19-20 February (Wednesday-Thuraday): Meetings Arabia & Luxury Travel (MALT) Congress, Abu Dhabi Convention & Exhibition Bureau.

19-20 February (Wednesday-Thuraday): The 18th annual IDC Middle East CIO Summit, the Grand Hyatt Dubai.

19-21 February (Wednesday-Friday): International Dialogue of Civilizations & Tolerance Conference, Abu Dhabi Energy Centre.

19-23 February (Wednesday- Sunday): Dubai International Boat Show, Dubai Harbour.

24-25 February (Monday-Tuesday): World Passenger Experience Forum, Dubai.

24-26 February (Monday-Wednesday): Connecting Hydrogen MENA, Dubai.

26-27 February (Wednesday-Thursday): Affiliate World Dubai 2025, Dubai World Trade Center.

28-29 February (Friday-Saturday): Investopia 2024, the St. Regis, Abu Dhabi.

28 February-29 March (Friday-Saturday): Ramadan.

27-29 October (Monday-Wednesday): Future Hospitality Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

17-21 November (Monday-Friday): Dubai Airshow 2025, Al Maktoum International Airport, Dubai.

Signposted to happen sometime in 1Q 2025:

The first eight fronds of the Palm Jebel Ali will be site-ready, allowing for the commencement of villa infrastructure and civil works.

MARCH

18-19 March (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

29 March (Saturday):

31 March-2 April (Monday-Wednesday): Eid Al Fitr, national holiday.

APRIL

1 April (Tuesday): New ADGM employment regulations come into effect.

1 April (Tuesday): New personal status law comes into effect.

6-11 April (Sunday-Friday): Geo-Spatial Week, Dubai.

7-10 April (Monday-Thursday) : EFG Hermes One on One conference, Dubai.

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Investment Summit, Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): Middle East Energy, Dubai World Trade Center.

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): World Local Production Forum's 3rd edition, Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center.

12-13 April (Saturday-Sunday): Global Justice, Love & Peace Summit, Dubai Exhibition Centre, Expo City Dubai.

14-16 April (Monday-Wednesday): Dubai Woodshow’s 21st Edition, Dubai World Trade Center

14-16 April (Monday-Wednesday): IPS congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

14-26 April (Monday-Saturday): Solana Economic Zone, Dubai.

15-17 April (Tuesday-Thursday): The Abu Dhabi Global Health Week, Adnec center, Abu Dhabi.

16-18 April (Wednesday-Friday): World Future Energy Summit,Abu Dhabi National Exhibition, Abu Dhabi.

21-25 April (Monday-Friday): The Dubai AI Week, Museum of the Future and Area 2071, Emirates Towers, Dubai.

22-24 April (Tuesday-Thursday): DOMOTEX Middle East, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

25 April-11 May (Friday-Sunday): Dubai Esports and Games Festival, Dubai World Trade Center.

28 April-1 May (Monday-Thursday): The Arabian Travel Market, Dubai World Trade Center

28 April-2 May (Monday-Friday): The 64th Annual Conference of the International Federation of Ait Traffic Controllers’ Associations (IFATCA)

Signposted to happen sometime in April:

Abu Dhabi Autonomous Racing League, Yas Marina Circuit in Abu Dhabi

MAY

6-7 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Global Ports Forum, Dubai.

6-7 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

13-16 May (Tuesday-Friday): International Union for Health Promotion and Education Conference, Abu Dhabi.

13-15 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Cabsat Middle East and Satellite Middle East, Dubai World Trade Center.

15 May (Thursday-Sunday): The Economy Middle East Summit, ADGM, Abu Dhabi.

15-18 May (Thursday-Sunday): The GLA Global Logistics Conference, Grand Hyatt Dubai.

16-18 May (Friday-Sunday): GISEC, Dubai World Trade Center.

19-22 May (Monday-Thursday): Make it in the Emirates, Adnec, Abu Dhabi.

20-22 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Seamless Middle East 2025, Dubai World Trade Center.

23-25 May (Friday-Sunday): EuroLeague Final Four, Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi.

26-28 May (Monday-Wednesday): Arab Media Summit, World Trade Center, Dubai.

30 May (Friday): Arafat Day.

31 May-2 June (Saturday-Monday): Eid Al Adha.

Signposted to happen sometime in May:

Asean and summit, Malaysia.

JUNE

17-18 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

24-25 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): Middle East Rail, Dubai World Trade Center.

27 June (Friday): Islamic New Year.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2H 2025:

Closing of XRG's acquisition of Covestro

JULY

29-30 July (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

SEPTEMBER

8-10 September (Monday-Wednesday): DigiHealth exhibition, World Trade Center, Dubai.

16-17 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

24-25 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Mohammed Bin Rashid Leadership Forum, Mohammed Bin Rashid Center for Leadership Development, Dubai.

OCTOBER

3-16 October (Friday-Thursday): Dubai Home Festival.

7-9 October (Tuesday-Thursday): The 8th International Symposium on the System of Radiological Protection, the Ritz-Carlton Abu Dhabi, Grand Canal.

9-15 October (Thursday-Wednesday): IUCN World Conservation Congress, Abu Dhabi.

17-19 October (Friday-Sunday): The International Real Estate and Investment Show, Abu Dhabi.

27-29 October (Monday-Wednesday): Asia Pacific Cities Summit, Dubai Exhibition Center.

28-29 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

NOVEMBER

18-19 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Dubai Future Forum, Museum of the Future, Dubai.

DECEMBER

1-3 December (Monday-Wednesday): Eid Al Etihad (UAE National Day).

1-5 December (Monday-Friday): The World Congress of Neurosurgery, Dubai World Trade Center.

9-10 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2025:

The Middle East Electric Vehicle Show, Expo Center Sharjah.
e& will complete Adnoc’s private 5G network.
Executive Committee Meeting (EXCOM 2025) conference of the World Smart Sustainable Cities Organisation (WeGO)
The International Civil Aviation Organization’s Global Implementation Support Symposium, Abu Dhabi.
Universal Postal Congress 2025, Dubai.

Signposted to happen sometime in the fall of 2025:

2025 Games of the Future, Dubai.
ICOM General Conference 2025, Dubai

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

The UAE to host the Arab Competition Forum
Dubai to host the Arab Actuarial Conference
United Nations Water Conference 2026, UAE
9-11 January (Friday-Sunday): 1 Bn Followers Summit’s fourth edition, UAE

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