Non-oil business activity grows in November at its fastest pace in 11 months

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Abu Dhabi Finance Week kicks off after F1 weekend wraps + Stargate UAE to launch in 3Q 2026

Good morning, friends. It’s the start of a busy week both home and abroad, with Abu Dhabi hosting the annual Abu Dhabi Finance Week and a slew of crypto-focused events happening in tandem, the UAE attending the US’ critical minerals-focused Pax Silica summit later on Friday, and the US Federal Reserve meeting midweek to make a decision on interest rates.

(We’re going to be on the ground at ADFW and would love to say hi. Drop us a note in a reply to this email if you’d like to meet.)

The “capital of capital” is already capturing plenty of attention ahead of ADFW, with Bloomberg out with a big take on the tns of USD powering the emirate’s economy and its investments abroad. The business news information service attempts to map out the intricately linked webs of capital in the emirate, from its sovereign wealth funds to leading firms like Lunate and IHC, and their links to powerful royal figures like Sheikh Tahnoon bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

ADGM also published its 3Q 2025 updates just in time, and it’s been a busy year for the financial hub. Its assets under management (AUM) jumped 48% y-o-y in 3Q 2025, while the number of asset and fund managers rose to 161, with a total of some 220 funds, according to a press release. It now also has 11.9k active licenses, with the number of operational entities climbing 43% y-o-y to 3.2k — 328 of which are in financial services. The workforce grew to 39.9k, reflecting increased activity across Al Maryah and Al Reem islands.

Real estate activity in the ADGM also accelerated, with transaction values rising 104% y-o-y, off-plan and ready unit sales increasing by 78%, and project registrations doubling, boosted by the integration of Al Reem Island into ADGM’s jurisdiction.

PLUS- More is coming. As is usual for every ADFW, more hedge funds are announcing their plans to expand to the capital. LSE-listed Man Group, the world’s biggest listed hedge fund with USD 213.9 bn in assets, is gearing up to apply for a license for an Abu Dhabi office, targeting a 2026 launch, Bloomberg reports. Pending regulatory approval, the unit is expected to serve as a strategic base focused on distribution, investment, trading, and execution, with plans to scale operations over time.

The hedge fund previously had a Dubai office between 2005 and 2016, which it shut in a strategic reshuffle. It already has ties with regional allocators specializing in investments, as well as in research and training programs. The emirate’s focus on “innovation and AI,” along with its positioning as a global financial center, were cited as reasons for the move by a Man Group spokesperson.

This all follows an already eventful weekend in Abu Dhabi, with the Formula 1 World Championship seeing McLaren driver Lando Norris crowned champion for the first time after a tight race. Katy Perry, Post Malone, and Benson Boone were among several acts that performed throughout the weekend as celebrities, tourists, and UAE residents alike flocked to the capital for the weekend.

ALSO IN TODAY’S ISSUE- We have a hearty heaping of macro indicator soup — from the UAE’s purchasing managers’ index for November to the World Bank’s latest update for the UAE and a labor market update. Plus: An Istanbul-based digital assets platform acquires CoinMENA, and DP World was tapped for a project to modernize Afghan ports.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- Abu Dhabi Finance Week runs until Thursday, 11 December at the ADGM in Al Maryah Island. The largest finance event in the UAE promises a star-studded lineup, with the likes of Microsoft founder Bill Gates, BlackRock CEO Larry Fink, and JPMorgan CEO Jamie Dimon among the speakers on the schedule. Day one will host the Abu Dhabi Economic Forum, which will feature government officials, heads of sovereign wealth funds, and economists to discuss the future of sustainable economic development.

#2- The DeFi Technologies Insights Global Symposium is happening today at the Emirates Palace in Abu Dhabi. The symposium will convene leaders across digital finance and capital markets to explore how digital assets, blockchain, and AI are redefining modern finance across institutional and sovereign markets globally.

#3- The BTC MENA Conference is on today and tomorrow at the Adnec Center in Abu Dhabi. The two day event brings together leaders, investors, and key stakeholders to discuss the evolving landscape of BTC and the key challenges facing the ecosystem. The conference will examine the convergence of regional capital, energy planning and infrastructure development.

#4- The Global AI Show is also taking place today and tomorrow in Abu Dhabi, connecting AI experts, tech leaders, policymakers, investors, and startups to explore how AI can shape business and government functions across key sectors including finance, healthcare, and cybersecurity.

#5- The Bridge Summit is starting today and will run until Wednesday, 10 December at the Adnec Center in Abu Dhabi. The three day multimedia conference convenes C-suite executives, policymakers, media professionals, and content creators featuring panel discussions, talks and keynotes to discuss the future of media, entertainment and the creative landscape.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

The UAE is among eight countries attending the Pax Silica summit hosted by the US on Friday, 12 December at the White House. The meeting will gather close US allies including Japan, South Korea, Singapore, the Netherlands, the UK, Israel, and Australia as the US looks to reduce dependence on China and counter its dominance in AI technology. Washington aims to secure agreements with the attending countries — all of whom either possess critical mineral resources or host major semiconductor firms.

DATA POINT- China accounts for over 90% of the world’s rare earths and permanent magnet refining capacity — essential for the development of computer chips and other AI technology — followed by Malaysia with just 4%.

REMEMBER- The UAE and the US had agreed to cooperate on critical minerals supply chains earlier this year, with the UAE’s USD 1.4 tn investment pledge including projects like a USD 4 bn aluminum smelter to double the US’ aluminum production capacity, and another USD 4 bn gallium smelter project targeting support for semiconductors. Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund also later linked up with US government and private equity fund Orion Resource Partners for a mining-focused JV, with plans to invest USD 1.2 bn in metals and mining across Africa, Asia, and Latin America, and co-invested in the USD 1.8 bn Orion Critical Mineral Consortium, which aims to invest in international critical minerals projects.

WEATHER- Expect some fog this morning, along with a minor rise in temperatures. The mercury peaks at 31°C in Dubai and 30°C in Abu Dhabi, before cooling to a low of 21°C in the former and 19°C in the capital.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- Stargate UAE to launch in 3Q 2026: Stargate UAE’s first phase is now on track for completion in 3Q 2026, with construction “going full steam ahead,” Mubadala Investments CEO Khaldoon Al Mubarak told The National. The 19.2 sq-km AI park is part of the 5 GW US-UAE data center campus currently being developed by state AI firm G42 — along with US players including OpenAI, Nvidia, Cisco, and Japan’s SoftBank — and is part of the US’ wider USD 500 bn Stargate initiative.

Where we’re at: Construction of the first 200 MW of the 1 GW capacity is underway, and the project has installed steelworks more than 1.5x the weight of the Eiffel Tower. Some 5k workers are currently working on the site, set to be one of the largest AI hubs outside the US. Full buildout is set for completion within three years.

REFRESHER- The project recently secured a major boost after the US cleared exports of Nvidia’s Blackwell chips to G42, following an initial decision to export USD bns of Nvidia chips for use in US-linked data infrastructure that did not include G42. The move allows for purchases of up to 35k GB300 units, compared to the “couple of thousand” currently available, according to Al Mubarak. The jump in chip capacity is “like going from 5 km an hour to 250 km an hour,” he added.

#2- US-based Guggenheim Investments is considering opening a new office in Abu Dhabi, with the licensing process already underway, and Riyadh, Chief Investment Officer Anne Walsh told Reuters. The firm, which has about USD 357 bn in assets, is looking to deploy more funds in the region and capitalize on investment windows in infrastructure, transportation, and AI and technology across the region. The firm already has an office in Dubai International Financial Center.

#3- Cleveland Clinic plans capacity expansion amid rising demand: Cleveland Clinic Abu Dhabi is planning on expanding its hospital bed capacity to 500 — up from around 400 — within the next two years to accommodate the rise in patient demand both domestically and internationally, CEO Georges-Pascal Haber told The National. The clinic is currently repurposing administrative sites as intensive care units, with additional plans to expand beyond Al Maryah Island with satellite clinics, surgical centers, and family health centers across Abu Dhabi.

IN CONTEXT- International patients at the hospital increased 20% this year, while last year it received over 10k international patients, up 34% y-o-y.

Major developments in the pipeline: The hospital is building the region’s first carbon-ion therapy facility in collaboration with G42 healthcare arm M42, slated for completion by 2026, delivering advanced radiation treatment targeting hard to treat tumors for cancer patients. In partnership with Archer Aviation, the clinic is also set to become the UAE's first hospital with a vertiport for flying taxis, enabling quicker patient transport and improving time-sensitive organ transport.

#4- UAE to become the GCC’s new Civil Aviation Authority’s home base: The Supreme Council of the GCC has approved a proposal to establish a unified civil aviation authority for the Gulf region, advancing a plan that could unify aviation regulations and integrate operations across the six GCC members), state news agency Wam reports. The new entity, which is set to focus on harmonizing legislative and operational standards, will be headquartered in the UAE.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

It’s a quiet Monday morning in the global press, with a few notable stories making headlines:

#1- Phase two of the Gaza peace agreement? Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu said he will meet with US President Donald Trump later this month as negotiations advance on the second phase of the Trump-backed Gaza ceasefire plan. Netanyahu said the meeting will address the plan’s next steps, which include ending Hamas’ rule in Gaza and establishing an interim technocratic Palestinian government overseen by an international body. (Reuters | Guardian | AFP)

#2- A water leak in the Louvre’s Egyptian department has damaged hundreds of rare books. The leak affected Egyptology journals and research documents from the late 19th and early 20th centuries but no heritage artefacts. The Louvre confirmed there were no irreversible losses, and the materials will be restored. (Guardian | Reuters | New York Times | Bloomberg)

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CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

Non-oil private sector activity expands on growth in northern Emirates and Abu Dhabi

The UAE's non-oil private sector activity expanded at its fastest pace in 11 months in November, marking a solid improvement in activity on the back of favorable market conditions and a jump in business intakes. The country’s seasonally adjusted S&P Global PMI (pdf) hit a nine-month high of 54.8 in November, up from 53.8 a month earlier. November’s reading lands just above the 54.3 survey long-run average.

New orders picked up in November, hitting their highest level in 11 months, with the surveyed businesses citing robust market conditions and strong demand as behind the increase in client orders. Firms attributed the strong sales volumes to product innovation, market diversification, and technological advancements. The new orders subindex reached 57.4 in November, up from a 56.0 reading last month, according to Reuters.

Business activity accelerated to 61.6 in November from 58.6 a month earlier, marking the joint-fastest rate in over 18 months, similar to last December’s strong readings, Emirates NBD said in a note.

Employment rose to its highest levels in a year and half during the month, but at a slow rate. The overall increase in employment came on the back of elevated sales, with firms highlighting further intensified capacity pressures due to “delays in settling payments related to previous work,” according to the report.

Input costs soared to mark their steepest increase since September 2024, as purchasing activity surged for the third month in a row, while firms raised selling prices to offset the costs. Firms also consumed inputs at a faster rate, marking the fourth reduction in stocks in five months.

“The sharper rise in employment was accompanied by a steeper increase in wage costs, as firms cited the need to raise salaries in response to cost-of-living pressures and skill shortages,” S&P Global Senior Economist David Owen wrote in the report.

Confidence rebounded from October’s dip, with more than 13% of firms anticipating greater output levels in 2026, while around 1% of participants forecast a drop for the coming year. The upbeat sentiment is boosted by an anticipated increase in sales accompanied by positive market conditions.

OVER IN DUBAI-

Dubai’s non-oil private sector maintained its growth levels, remaining unchanged from October’s reading of 54.5, though business activity grew amid a significant surge in sales intakes.

Employment rates inched up during the month, recording the highest levels in nearly a year and a half. The emirate saw a rise in wage costs similar to what was reported for the UAE, with output charges also increasing in tandem.

Abu Dhabi and northern Emirates driving growth: Dubai’s flat reading meant that the UAE-wide growth of 1.9 m-o-m “was driven entirely by Abu Dhabi and the northern Emirates, which collectively are now expanding even more strongly than Dubai,” GCC Economist and Khalij Economics Director Justin Alexander told EnterpriseAM.

ELSEWHERE IN THE REGION-

Saudi Arabia's non-oil private sector continued to expand in November, albeit at a slower rate, with the seasonally adjusted figure dropping to 58.5 in November, down from 60.2 in October;
Egypt saw its non-oil private sector jump back into the green in November, breaking a nine month stretch in contraction territory.

Labor market grew 8.9% in 3Q

The UAE’s workforce expanded 8.9% in 3Q 2025, with a 6.6% increase in the number of operating companies during the quarter, according to recent statistics from the Human Resources and Emiratization Ministry. The ministry attributed the expansion to increased private sector participation in the economy along with labor protection initiatives.

Sector distribution: The wholesale and retail sector had the highest percentage of companies, making up 30.2% of registered firms, followed by construction (17.1%), administrative services activities (12.2%), and manufacturing (8.8%).

ALSO- Nearly all private sector workers (98.8%) are now included under the wage protection system, Gulf News reports. The protection system reserves employees’ rights and ensures timely repayment of wages, which should take about two weeks to be reflected.

World Bank maintains forecast for UAE’s GDP at 4.8%

The World Bank maintained its forecast for the UAE’s GDP in 2025 at 4.8%, while seeing GDP average 5% in FY 2026-2027, amid strong non-oil momentum and oil production hikes as Opec+ reverses its supply cut-focused policy from earlier this year, it said in its latest Gulf Economic Update (pdf). The UAE has already reported 4.2% growth for 1H 2025.

Driving next year's growth is a forecasted 5.2% expansion in the UAE's non-oil sector, which makes up over 75% of the country's total GDP, making the UAE “the most economically diversified GCC economy,” the World Bank said. The oil sector is also set to grow 4.5% in 2026-2027, from an expected 3.9% in 2025.

Meanwhile, unemployment is expected to hover around 2.1%, below the GCC average, though with some gender and age disparities.

The World Bank kept its headline inflation forecast at 2% in 2026, and anticipated inflationary pressures could stem from “the alignment of interest rate cuts with that of the Federal Reserve to maintain the parity of the [AED] with the [USD],” the report said. The first half of 2025 saw accelerated inflation rates in sectors including recreation and culture (6%), ins. and financial services (4.4%), and housing, water, electricity, and gas (4%). Property and rentals inflation are also anticipated to rise on the back of population growth.

It also expects the UAE’s fiscal surplus to average 5% of GDP over the medium term, backed by its “strength and scale of sovereign wealth funds (SWFs).” Meanwhile, it revised its forecast for the current account surplus to 7.4% of GDP in 2025, from a previously estimated 7.1%, and to 7.8% in 2026 from its previous estimation of 7.7%. It’s expected to shrink to 5.7% in 2027, according to the report.

CoinMENA lands Turkish buyer at USD 240 mn valuation

Paribu buys into CoinMENA: Istanbul-based digital asset platform Paribu bought an unspecified majority stake in Dubai-based crypto exchange CoinMENA for an undisclosed sum, according to a joint statement. The transaction, which Paribu says is Turkey’s largest fintech acquisition to date, values CoinMENA at USD 240 mn. It also marks the country’s first move into a cross-border crypto market.

The pitch: Paribu will use CoinMENA’s Bahrain and Dubai licenses as its launchpad into the Gulf, integrating the exchange into a broader custody-brokerage-trading stack and doubling down on regulated crypto infrastructure across the region.

About CoinMENA: CoinMENA has a footprint across two of the region’s most active crypto markets, operating under Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority and the Central Bank of Bahrain. The exchange raised nearly USD 20 mn to date from investors including Beco, Arab Bank Switzerland, Circle, and Bunat Ventures, and now serves 1.5 mn users across 45 countries, offering access to more than 50 tokens and multiple local currencies.

The story also got ink from Reuters.

DP World to help modernize Afghan ports

Kabul taps DP World for port upgrades: Afghanistan’s Finance Ministry inked an MoU with port operator DP World to modernize key dry and river ports in the landlocked country, according to a statement on X by state news outlet Bakhtar News Agency. The project’s first phase would cover upgrades to port infrastructure in the river port city of Hairatan and the border city of Torkham, while later phases would cover enhancements to other logistics corridors as well as economic zones across Afghanistan, independent outlet Pajhowk Afghan News quotes Afghani Deputy Prime Minister’s Chief of Staff Mufti Abdullah Azam as saying.

What we know: The agreement is structured as a public–private partnership (PPP), the and will see DP World undertake a technical and financial feasibility study before they finalize the concession, state news agency Wam reports.

The project is also expected to include the introduction of advanced cargo-handling systems and the digitization of border processes.

Afghanistan and the UAE have been mulling cooperation for almost a year. UAE President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan met with Afghanistan's Interior Minister Sirajuddin Haqqani in Abu Dhabi in January, where both sides discussed Afghanistan's reconstruction efforts and explored ways to enhance stability and cooperation.

OVER IN PAKISTAN-

AD Ports JV to develop clean bulk handling + storage facility in Karachi: Karachi Gateway Terminal Multipurpose (KGTML) — a JV formed by majority shareholder AD Ports and UAE-based Kaheel Terminals — inked an agreement with major agricultural commodity house Louis Dreyfus Company (LDC) to develop and operate a clean bulk handling and storage facility at Pakistan’s Karachi Port, according to a statement. The project adds to a previous USD 75 mn investment committed by KGTML during the first phase of the project.

Who’s doing what? KGTML will develop the facility, while ADQ-backed LDC is set to provide the required inbound volumes of agricultural goods.

BACKGROUND- KGTML was formed after AD Ports Group and Pakistan’s Karachi Port Trust inked a 25-year concession agreement in February 2024 to develop a bulk and general cargo terminal along berths 11 to 17 at Karachi Port’s East Wharf, with a total of USD 175 mn investments earmarked over five years.

A lot of eyes on Karachi: KGTML inked an agreement back in September with Van Oord to expand berth capacity at the JV’s terminals in Karachi Port. DP World is also set to funnel USD 400 mn into a freight corridor connecting Pakistan's largest two ports, Karachi Port and Port Qasim, which together handle about 90% of the country’s trade.

Opec+’s new capacity audit, explained

Opec+ recently approved the most significant overhaul to its quota system in years — a move that could reshape alliances inside the group, trigger a new wave of upstream spending, and reset who gets to pump what from 2027 onward. The decision centers on a new baseline calculation mechanism and a multi-stage audit that aims to tie future quotas to what each country can actually produce.

This is Opec+ trying to fix a credibility problem years in the making, including widening gaps between official quotas and actual production, persistent overpumping by some members, chronic underdelivery by others, and tensions around how capacity is measured.

What’s new? The cartel agreed to use a new methodology to set members’ baselines, set to become the foundation for future quotas. Between January and September, 19 out of the 22 Opec+ members will undergo a technical review covering each country’s oilfields and infrastructure to determine the volume that can be brought online within 90 days and sustained for one full year — what the group calls a country's “maximum sustainable capacity,” Bloomberg reports, citing one of the group’s delegates.

Once each country’s capacity is assessed, the group will assign a quota that represents an equal percentage of capacity for every member. Members’ capacities will then be formally approved in an Opec+ meeting in November, where quotas for 2027 will be set. The process will be repeated annually. Dallas-based firm DeGolyer and MacNaughton — the petroleum consultancy that audited Aramco’s reserves ahead of its IPO — will conduct the audit, the business news service added.

…but not for everyone: Russia, Venezuela, and Iran objected to the external auditor due to the ongoing tensions and sanctions with the US. A yet-to-be-named Indian firm will reportedly audit Russia and Venezuela, while Iran chose to use its average production for August, September, and October as its baseline, according to Bloomberg.

Why does this matter now? Because quotas no longer align with reality. Many Opec+ producers simply can’t hit their targets, while a few can pump far more than their assigned limits. Twelve of the 18 members with quotas were producing below target in October, Reuters reported, citing data from Platts.

The new method is designed to stop the cycle of non-compliance and improve market signaling. Saudi Energy Minister Prince Abdulaziz bin Salman recently said that the system will “stabilize markets and reward those who invest in production.”

BUT- The group has a long history of struggling to enforce discipline: Members have spent years "flagrantly exceeding production quotas,” while Saudi Arabia — the bloc’s de facto leader — struggled to impose order, Ron Bousso wrote in a Reuters column. The reform is supposed to reset expectations, reduce non-compliance, and offer a transparent explanation for quota allocations.

Rewarding the Gulf — and raising the bar for everyone else: The new baseline formula directly benefits countries that can ramp up quickly, cheaply, and reliably, clearly favoring Saudi Arabia, the UAE, and Kuwait — the lowest-cost producers in the group, Bousso said.

The figures speak for themselves: The UAE plans to grow its production capacity to 5 mn barrels a day by 2027, up from 4.85 mn today. State oil and gas firm Adnoc said it plans to invest USD 150 bn over the next five years to expand operations.

By contrast, members whose production relies on costlier reservoirs or offshore fields — notably Nigeria and Kazakhstan — are disadvantaged because boosting capacity requires more investment and longer timelines, Bousso said. Sanctioned producers also face obvious headwinds, as they cannot easily grow capacity due to restrictions on equipment, technology, financing, and even exporting.

Expect a wave of upstream investment — especially from the Gulf — as countries try to lift capacity ahead of the audits, Bousso notes. Gulf states, in particular, are already “looking beyond near-term oversupply concerns” and remain unconcerned about future demand questions, Bousso adds. The logic is simple: if your future quota is a percentage of your verified capacity, and that capacity gets locked in for 2027 and reviewed annually, you start investing now.

This fits the group’s long-term goal: Opec wants to regain market share after losing ground to rising non-Opec production and US shale — more capacity inside the bloc supports that.

ALSO- Positive implications for energy transition? When there’s a realistic, independently verified view of fossil fuel availability and spare capacity, it becomes easier to integrate renewables into long-term strategy and plan buildout without second-guessing supply risks, Mona Dajani, global co-chair of Energy, Infrastructure, and Hydrogen at Baker Botts, said in a post on LinkedIn.

BUT- The system still has weaknesses: Members can still overproduce, as they did in recent years. Audits don’t automatically ensure compliance, Reuters notes. Countries unable to grow capacity because of sanctions, conflict, or geological limitations will also lose market share relative to Gulf producers, which can create internal friction (A previous capacity review in 2023 led Angola to quit Opec entirely).

REMEMBER- No production hikes for 1Q 2026: Opec+ agreed to keep oil output quotas unchanged for the first quarter of 2026 in its meetings last week. The decision keeps 3.24 mn bbl / d of production cuts in place, representing some 3% of global demand.

Mayam Al Balooshi elected as chair of the Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection

UAE’s Maryam Al Balooshi tapped to lead ICAO’s environmental committee: Senior Manager of the Environmental Affairs Office at the General Civil Aviation Authority (GCAA) Maryam Al Balooshi (LinkedIn) was tapped as chair of the Committee on Aviation Environmental Protection (CAEP) of the International Civil Aviation Organization (ICAO), state news agency Wam reports. The appointment makes Al Balooshi the first person from the Middle East to take up the role.

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The role will see Al Balooshi oversee international efforts to reduce the aviation sector’s environmental impact. The committee’s focus areas include aircraft noise and engine emissions, sustainable aviation fuels, and environmental management tools.

Mercantile & Maritime makes big SAF moves

ENERGY-

#1- MENA Biofuels + Saybolt to launch first SAF testing facility in Fujairah: MENA Biofuels, a subsidiary of Dubai-based Mercantile & Maritime Group, partnered with Netherlands-based Saybolt International to develop the UAE’s first independent sustainable aviation fuel (SAF) testing and certification lab in Fujairah, state news agency Wam reports.

The details: The facility, located in Fujairah Oil Industry Zone, will enable precise evaluation of SAF properties, traceability of feedstock origins, and verification of lifecycle emissions.

ICYMI- MENA Biofuels started construction on the UAE’s first commercial SAF plant — also in Fujairah Oil Industry Zone — last month, which is set to produce 250 mn liters of SAF annually once the two phases are completed. The UAE is looking to produce 700 mn liters of the fuel per year by 2031. Masdar and Tadweer are also developing a commercial-scale waste-to-SAF project in Abu Dhabi, while Lootah Biofuels recently began supplying SAF in the UAE, produced from cooking oil and waste-derived fats.

#2- Mercantile & Maritime to develop cooking oil fuel system in Indonesia: Mercantile & Maritime also signed an MoU with Indonesia’s Cooperatives Ministry and the Indonesian Cooperatives Council (Dekopin) to develop a sustainable used cooking oil (UCO) ecosystem in the archipelago, Wam reports. Dekopin will be involved in cooperative mapping to facilitate financing, mentoring, and offtake contracts, while the project will also be a boost for the UAE’s own SAF production ambitions, though it’s not clear how. Used cooking oil can be refined for use as a biofuel.

AVIATION-

Etihad + Condor to launch new Germany-UAE daily routes in 2026: ADQ-backed Etihad Airways partnered with German carrier Condor to introduce daily flights from Frankfurt and Berlin to Abu Dhabi starting in summer 2026, according to a press release. Condor will launch daily flights between Frankfurt and Abu Dhabi starting 1 May next year, followed by daily flights between Berlin and Abu Dhabi from 15 June. The two also inked a codeshare agreement to expand their network, giving passengers access to over 80 destinations.

DEBT-

Fitch Ratings affirms e&’s AA- rating with stable outlook: Fitch Ratings assigned Emirates Telecommunications Group’s (e&) a long-term issuer default rating and senior unsecured debt rating of AA-, with a stable outlook, according to a report. The rating aligns with the UAE’s stable rating at AA-, reflecting the close ties between e& and the state given the government’s 60% ownership stake. It also marks a two-notch rise from e&'s Standalone Credit Profile at A. The telco’s robust market presence, diversified portfolio of international assets mitigating foreign exchange fluctuations and risks, and strong financial position, were also cited as reasons behind the solid rating.

CRYPTO-

Dubai Customs, Binance partner on payments: Dubai Customs inked a strategic MoU with Binance, the world’s largest crypto exchange, to integrate crypto assets into commercial and logistical transactions, according to Dubai Media Office. The partnership will enable SMEs and global traders to access fast, transparent, and flexible payment solutions, and aims to boost operational efficiency in import and export activities.

AI to drive global growth in 2026 in a robust but risk-exposed environment -Deutsche Bank

AI is set to be the global economy’s core growth engine in 2026, even as geopolitical tensions and political uncertainty continue to weigh on sentiment, according to Deutsche Bank's Capital Markets Outlook (pdf). The bank expects a robust but risk-exposed global environment, with active risk management and diversification across asset classes — such as private equity, infrastructure, and private credit — essential for investors.

AI-linked investment will remain the structural driver next year, anchored by heavy spending in the US and China. AI is a “game changer,” global chief investment officer Christian Nolting said, though he warned of overinvestment risk and energy-supply constraints, alongside rising state intervention through subsidies and export controls.

Diversification across assets in equity markets is likely to pick up, with small and mid-cap stocks potentially becoming more popular as investors eye allocations with lower interest rates, Deutsche Bank said. The bank penciled in continued gains for Big Tech, with other AI-linked sectors like industrials, energy suppliers, and construction — particularly of data centers — also set to catch up.

The bank expects most regions to see double-digit earnings growth, spread across more sectors than usual as diversification picks up, with sectors like pharma and luxury consumption set to see a boost.

It expects the S&P 500 to end next year in the green, up 9.2% from yesterday’s close, while the Eurostoxx 50 is expected to be up 4.8% from the latest close

2026 is also expected to see income from interest prioritized over capital gains, after bond markets returned to a normalized yield regime, with positive real yields in US and EU sovereigns “possible,” Deutsche Bank said.

In commodities, strategic rare earth metals will remain a priority on the back of the AI boom, with competition for access set to intensify. Oil prices are likely to remain low, near USD 60 per barrel on the back of an incoming oversupply, though gold prices may rise on demand from central banks and investors looking to add a safe asset to their portfolio. Deutsche Bank expects gold to reach the USD 4.5k mark by the end of the year.

Downside risks remain, with the bank pointing to an overhang of a possible trade conflict between the US and China with sticking points like semiconductors and rare earth minerals persisting despite partial relief from trade agreements and truces. Any additional tariffs would act as an indirect tax hitting global supply chains, the report said. Other downside risks include inflation and high levels of government debt.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are mixed this morning, with Japan’s Nikkei and Hong Kong’s Hang Seng in the red, and South Korea’s Kospi and China’s CSI 300 in the green ahead of key export data expected out of China later today. Meanwhile, Wall Street futures are flat following a strong week for all three US indices.

ADX	9,951	+0.4% (YTD: +5.7%)
DFM	5,984	+0.9% (YTD: +16.0%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	4,826	+1.2% (YTD: +15.9%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	3.7% o/n	3.6% 1 yr
Tadawul	10,631	+0.1% (YTD: -11.7%)
EGX30	41,762	+0.6% (YTD: +40.4%)
S&P 500	6,870	+0.2% (YTD: +16.8%)
FTSE 100	9,667	-0.5% (YTD: +18.3%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,724	+0.1% (YTD: +16.9%)
Brent crude	USD 63.73	0.0%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 5.12	-3.2%
Gold	USD 4,229	-0.3%
BTC	USD 90,640	+1.5% (YTD: -3.0%)
Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	AED 3.83	+0.3% (YTD: +10%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	151.89	0.0% (YTD: +8.5%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	15.41	-2.3% (YTD: -11.2%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The ADX rose 0.4% on Friday on turnover of AED 1.1 bn. The index is up 5.7% YTD.

In the green: National Bank of Fujairah (+13.4%), Space42 (+4.4%), and Bank of Sharjah (+3.2%).

In the red: Phoenix Group (-3.7%), Oman & Emirates Investment Holding Co (-3.2%), and Abu Dhabi National Hotels Co. (-3.0%).

Over on the DFM, the index rose 0.9% on turnover of AED 709.1 mn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was up 1.2%.

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Bildco shareholders approve AED 2.13 bn in-kind investment + capital increase: Abu Dhabi National Company for Building Materials (Bildco) shareholders have approved bringing on Abu Dhabi Integrated Investment Holding as a partner through an in-kind contribution of land valued at AED 2.13 bn and totaling 36 mn sqm, according to an ADX disclosure (pdf).

The shareholders also approved a capital increase of AED 1.2 bn, issuing 1.2 bn new shares at AED 1 apiece.

UAE President strengthens economic cooperation with Ecuador

The UAE and Ecuador sealed new investment and digital economy partnerships as President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan met Ecuadorian President Daniel Noboa in Abu Dhabi, focusing on economic cooperation, trade, investment, renewable energy, sustainability, and development sectors, state news agency Wam reports.

Three agreements were signed during the visit:

A bilateral investment promotion and protection agreement;
An MoU on digital economy cooperation between Dubai Chamber of Digital Economy, Ecuador’s Telecommunications and Information Society Ministry, and the Ecuadorian Chamber of Innovation and Technology;
An MoU on labor mobility cooperation between the UAE Human Resources and Emiratization Ministry and Ecuador’s Labor Ministry.

Azerbaijan-UAE ties also got a push as President Ilham Aliyev met with Sheikh Zayed bin Hamdan bin Zayed Al Nahyan in Baku, the ruler's representative in Al Dhafrah region of Abu Dhabi, with the two discussing expanding economic and investment cooperation, as well as private-sector collaboration through joint projects across key sectors, Wam reports.

On the sidelines, Sheikh Zayed bin Hamdan met Azerbaijan’s Economy Minister Mikayil Jabbarov to discuss expanding private-sector partnerships and joint projects in the advanced tech, digital transformation, energy, and natural resources sectors, Wam separately reports.

Several International Holding Company subsidiaries joined the delegation:

International Resources Holding met with Azerbaijani counterparts to discuss collaboration on mining projects;
Sirius International Holding, whose subsidiary Esyasoft is developing a USD 480 mn smart gas network in the country, explored collaboration on AI grid management for water and electricity systems;
Palms Sports examined possible expansions in sports, building on its existing presence as name-bearer and sponsor of Neftçi FC.

Uzbekistan, UAE talk cooperation: Uzbekistan and the UAE discussed expanding economic and investment cooperation during a meeting between President Shavkat Mirziyoyev and Energy and Infrastructure Minister Suhail bin Mohammed Al Mazrouei, Wam reports. Al Mazrouei was accompanied by senior executives from government and private energy entities.

Talks focused on expanding collaboration in renewable energy, transport, and logistics, as well as possible investments, as both sides reaffirmed their commitment to growing bilateral ties.

CALENDAR

DECEMBER

7-14 December (Sunday-Sunday): Asian Youth Para Games, APC headquarters, Dubai.

8 December (Monday): DeFi Technologies Insights Global Symposium, Emirates Palace, Abu Dhabi.

8-9 December (Monday-Tuesday): BTC MENA Conference, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

8-9 December (Monday-Tuesday): Global AI Show, Abu Dhabi.

8-10 December (Monday-Wednesday): The Bridge Summit, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

8-11 December (Monday-Thursday): Abu Dhabi Finance Week, ADGM, Al Maryah Island.

9-10 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

9-11 December (Tuesday-Thursday): Automechanika Dubai Trade Show, Dubai World Trade Center.

10 December (Wednesday): UAE-Russia Business Forum, Dubai.

12 December (Friday): Emirates NBD to launch an open offer for Mumbai-listed RBL Bank’s public shares.

12 December (Friday): US Pax Silica Summit, White House, Washington DC.

13-15 December (Saturday-Monday): Mobile Developers Week, Abu Dhabi.

18-23 December (Thursday-Tuesday): Games of the Future, Adnec, Abu Dhabi.

26 December (Friday): Tender period for Emirates NBD’s offer for RBL Bank’s public shares ends.

29-30 December (Monday-Tuesday): World Sports Summit, Dubai.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2025:

e& will complete Adnoc’s private 5G network;

Signposted to happen sometime in 2H 2025:

Closing of XRG's acquisition of Covestro.

JANUARY 2026

1 January: Client asset regime changes in Dubai International Financial Center take effect.

1 January: Amendments to the Tax Procedures Law and the UAE VAT Law come into effect.

9-11 January (Friday-Sunday): 1 Bn Followers Summit, UAE.

13-15 January (Tuesday-Thursday): FESPA Middle East, Dubai Exhibition Center, Dubai.

12-15 January (Monday-Thursday): Dubai International Project Management Forum, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

28-29 January (Wednesday-Thursday): IBA Arbitration Day Conference, Abu Dhabi.

28-30 January (Wednesday-Friday): World Customs Organization Technology Conference, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

31 January - 7 February (Saturday-Saturday): Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open, International Tennis Center, Zayed Sports City.

FEBRUARY 2026

3-5 February (Tuesday-Thursday): The World Governments Summit.

4-6 February (Wednesday-Friday): Arab Actuarial Conference, Millennium Plaza Downtown Hotel, Dubai.

12-15 February (Thursday-Sunday): The Society for Incentive Travel Excellence Global Conference, Abu Dhabi.

9-13 February (Monday-Friday): The World Health Expo (WHX), Dubai.

MARCH 2026

31 March - 2 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Arab Media Summit, Dubai.

26-28 March (Thursday-Saturday): Social Capital Conference, Dubai.

28-29 March (Saturday-Sunday): Emirates Congress on AI & Visionary leadership in Transforming Healthcare, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

30 March - 2 April (Monday-Thursday): IAAPA Middle East Exhibition and Conference, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

APRIL 2026

7-9 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Health Summit, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

13-15 April (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

13-15 April (Monday-Wednesday): The International Glass Manufacturing Show, Dubai.

14-16 April: (Tuesday-Thursday): the International Property Show, Sheikh Zayed Rd, Dubai.

21-23 April (Tuesday-Thursday): UITP Public Transport Summit, Dubai.

MAY 2026

11-15 May (Monday-Friday): Dubai Future Finance Week, Dubai.

11-13 May (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center.

19-20 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Capital Market Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

19-22 May (Tuesday-Friday): Abu Dhabi Water and Energy Week, Adnec Abu Dhabi Center, Abu Dhabi

JUNE 2026

15 June-15 September (Monday-Thursday): Dubai Mallathon, Dubai.

JULY 2026

31 July (Friday): Large businesses achieving annual revenues equal to or above AED 50 mn must appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.

DECEMBER 2026

2-4 December (Wednesday-Friday): UN Water Conference, UAE.

Signposted to happen in 2026:

The UAE to host the Arab Competition Forum;
Investopia Global Talks, Tashkent.

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1 January: Deadline for large businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project;
31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation ;
31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing;
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai;
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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