Good morning, lovely people. We might have spoken too soon on the news cycle’s pace, which still seems to be in sleep mode in the first week of the new year.

We have two major stories to report this morning: BlueFive Capital, former Investcorp executive Hazem Ben-Gacem’s new private equity firm, was tapped as general partner for a USD 4.6 bn China-focused fund of funds — marking a major vote of confidence as the firm looks to launch a USD 1 bn Asia-focused fund soon.

Plus: Emirates Islamic is providing Jordan-based Mass Group Holding a USD 500 mn structured facility for a 1.7 GW Romanian power plant.

AND- We have a breakdown of how the Venezuelan oil saga could trickle down to the region’s oil markets in this morning’s Planet Finance, below.

WEATHER- Temperatures are cooling down slightly, with a chance of light rainfall near coastal areas, according to the National Center of Meteorology. The mercury will reach a high of 25°C today, with an overnight low of 16°C, while Abu Dhabi will see a high of 24°C and a low of 15°C.

Watch this space

CRYPTO — AE Coin inches towards mainstream adoption: Dubai-based digital payments firm Network International has signed an MoU with Al Maryah Community Bank to plug AE Coin — the UAE’s first Central Bank-licensedstablecoin — into its point of sale and e-commerce infrastructure, marking the first move to place an AED-backed stablecoin on mainstream payment rails, according to a press release.

ICYMI- Merchant adoption is already building: As we previously reported, state-owned 7X has integrated AE Coin for logistics payments, with other early adopters including Air Arabia, the Abu Dhabi Judicial Department, and Tawasul Taxis. Separately, the Central Bank of the UAE has approved Zand AED, the country’s first multi-chain, AED-backed public stablecoin, while IHC, ADQ, and First Abu Dhabi Bank are developing a regulated AED token of their own.

What to watch: The real test is whether this converts into a commercial rollout at scale, and whether AE Coin will become a mainstream form of payment as several AED-backed stablecoins hit the market. Plus: Merchant adoption is one thing, but demand among actual consumers is an entirely different story, so we’ll be looking out for data — if only anecdotal — on the use of stablecoins in day-to-day transactions.

Data point

54.2 — that’s the seasonally adjusted purchasing managers’ index figure for the UAE in December, according to the S&P Global UAE PMI (pdf). The reading indicates a steady and healthy improvement in the non-oil private sector, landing only 0.1 points shy of the index’s long-term average of 54.3 and down from November’s reading of 54.8.

The breakdown: Business activity decelerated from its November peak as sales dipped despite strong international demand, but was still among the strongest expansion rates seen this year. Cost pressures hit a 15-month high, which led to an increase in output charges, while reports of heightened competition signaled another headwind for the sector. Meanwhile, job creation was conservative, with employment rising only marginally, leading to a sharp buildup of work backlogs and a strong drawdown of inventories — and confidence was at a three-year low.

It was a similar story in Dubai, where PMI reached 54.3 in December, indicating solid growth as output levels expanded at the fastest rate since March 2024, despite a loss of sales momentum. Firms continued to expand their activities, but the reading saw the sharpest reduction in inventories since April 2020 along with a slight increase in staffing levels. Meanwhile, cost pressures hit a one-year high.

PSA-

Watchers of All Her Fault will love this: Parents will now have to obtain permits to pick up students from government schools, Gulf News reports. The permit is issued at a nominal fee and parents must submit a copy of their Emirates ID, a recent passport-sized photo of the student, and sign a written agreement in person which specifies the method of departure and who is responsible.

The big story abroad

Uh, did the US just *literally* steal Venezuela’s oil? Oil tankers are moving from the US towards Venezuela to begin loading stranded Venezuelan oil after US President Donald Trump said Venezuela will hand over some 30-50 mn barrels of oil to the US. The sale of the cargoes could be worth around USD 3 bn at current prices.

What he said: “That money will be controlled by me, as President of the United States of America, to ensure it is used to benefit the people of Venezuela and the United States,” Trump wrote in a post on his Truth Social platform.

^^ The must-read on the topic: Trump: Venezuela to turn over 30-50 mn barrels of oil to US.

And the White House is now saying that military force is on the table in its bid to “acquire” Greenland. ““President Trump has made it well known that acquiring Greenland is a national security priority of the United States, and it’s vital to deter our adversaries in the Arctic region,” White House press secretary Karoline Leavitt said. “The president and his team are discussing a range of options to pursue this important foreign policy goal, and of course, utilizing the US military is always an option at the commander-in-chief’s disposal.”

Her remarks came after White House Deputy Chief of Staff Stephen Miller channeled his inner Balon Greyjoy, saying, “Nobody’s going to fight the United States militarily over the future of Greenland. … We live in a world, in the real world … that is governed by strength, that is governed by force, that is governed by power. These are the iron laws of the world since the beginning of time.” See more in the New York Times and the FT.

Closer to home:

• Saudi Arabia has opened up its capital markets to foreign investors in a move set to bring in more liquidity ahead of a deep 2026 IPO pipeline.
• The Qatar Investment Authority participated in Elon Musk’s xAI’s USD 20 bn series E funding round, alongside Nvidia and Cisco. (Reuters)
• Clashes between civilians and police in Iran amid a wave of protests that took the country by storm as of last week have left 29 dead and more than 1.2k people arrested. (Bloomberg)

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MARKET WATCH-

The Middle East crude market is flashing signs of stress. Dubai’s differential to Brent — the Brent-Dubai EFS — blew out to its widest since August, Bloomberg reports. At the same time, Dubai swaps curve has slipped back into contango, a textbook marker of an incoming surplus as near barrels are priced more cheaply than later ones.

Weakness is spilling into spot pricing: Oman crude (a core feedstock for Chinese refiners) has fallen to near parity with the Dubai benchmark after trading at a nearly USD 1 / bbl premium late last month, while Upper Zakum is now priced at a USD 0.35 markdown — its weakest since late 2023, the business news information service reports, citing General Index data. In the Dubai pricing windows, selling has dominated while bids have been sparse, traders told the outlet. With few participants willing to step in and support prices, benchmarks have drifted lower by default.

The backlog is the tell: Roughly 8 mn barrels of February-loading Middle East crude are still unsold, including Upper Zakum. That’s late by regional standards — February programs usually clear by end-December. It’s now the fourth straight month of barrels struggling to find homes in a market that normally clears clean.

Concerns of an oil glut this year have been pervasive, with the International Energy Agency (IEA) forecasting a 3.8 mn bbl / d surplus for 2026, while a Reuters poll of analysts expects the market to be in surplus by around 0.5-3.5 mn barrels per day.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

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