Good morning, friends, and happy hump day. There are still no signs of a summer news lull in sight — with news on everything from real estate to debt and investments.
In today’s issue, we have our friends at Mashreq’s latest sustainability-linked facility for Gargash Group, a report from Global SWF ranking Mubadala among the top three sovereign wealth funds in terms of governance and reliability, and the SCA approving robo-advisory regulations. Plus: More on the real estate sector in Dubai, construction costs in 1Q 2025, and the outlook for the banking sector…
WEATHER- Dubai will be seeing an afternoon high of 40°C today, and an overnight low of 31°C. In Abu Dhabi, the mercury will peak at 34°C, though it will feel like 44°C, before cooling to an overnight low of 31°C.
WATCH THIS SPACE-
#1- Could Adnoc slow down its M&A spree amid falling oil prices? State oil giant Adnoc and Saudi Aramco are reportedly slowing down their multi-bn-USD global acquisitions as falling oil prices put pressure on revenues, the Financial Times reported yesterday, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. The two companies spent over USD 60 bn on acquisitions over the last three years to expand into gas, chemicals, and lubricants, but both are now being urged to “focus more on dividends and less on growth” by their governments, according to the sources.
REMEMBER- Oil prices have fallen from over USD 80 a barrel earlier in January to below USD 70 this week, with oversupply set to add further pressure on prices.
Adnoc has a lot in its pipeline, but it might pause here: Adnoc just a few weeks ago submitted a non-binding USD 18.7 bn takeover bid for Australian oil and gas producer Santos, and is also working on getting its EUR 14.7 bn acquisition of German chemicals firm Covestro past the finish line. It has also been linked to a potential acquisition of BP’s assets, though the sources have said there is no interest from Adnoc or Aramco in BP’s lubricant business. Adnoc has also pledged to increase its US investments to USD 440 bn over the next decade, and was said to be considering USD 9 bn acquisition of US natural gas assets. But one source familiar with Adnoc’s thinking said it would need some time to integrate the businesses it has already acquired as well as some certainty over the trajectory of oil price.s
#2- On the flip side, Tabreed could be eyeing more acquisitions: State-owned district cooling giant Tabreed is exploring additional acquisitions after agreeing to acquire PAL Cooling Holding in a transaction worth an equity value of AED 3.8 bn (USD 1 bn), CEO Khalid Al Marzooqi told Bloomberg in an interview (watch, runtime: 5:40). The 50/50 joint acquisition with CVC DIF gives Tabreed exclusive operating rights and brings its total capacity to 1.5 mn RT, Al Marzooqi told CNBC Arabia in a separate interview (watch, runtime: 07:33). The acquisition is set to be financed by the firm’s reserves as well as sukuk issuances and bank loans, he added.
The company is assessing potential growth areas, including cooling services around Dubai’s upcoming Al Maktoum International Airport. “We’re deep-pocketed,” Al Marzooqi said, adding that if potential prospects arise, they will pursue it.
The PAL Cooling acquisition is expected to close in 2H, according to Fitch Ratings. The rating agency expects a dividend inflow from the transaction at roughly AED 30 mn annually over 2025-2029. Fitch says Tabreed will have little room left to take on more debt without risking a credit rating downgrade after the acquisition.
#3- Trump-linked BTC miner heads to Dubai: US-based crypto mining firm Hut 8 registered to open an office in the Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC) last week, Bloomberg reports, citing a DIFC regulatory filing. The new office will support its trading and crypto-hoarding strategies, a company spokesperson told the business news information service in an emailed statement.
Hut 8? The firm is part of American BTC, a new venture partially owned by Donald Trump Jr. and Eric Trump, which is slated to go public this year. Hut 8 will retain an 80% stake in the combined entity, though the Dubai expansion is unrelated, the spokesperson noted. The company operates mining sites in Texas, New York, and Canada, and had 220 employees at the end of 2024.
#4- The UAE is one step closer to joining Depa: The Digital Economy Partnership Agreement (Depa) Joint Committee established an accession working group for the UAE after it applied for membership in 2023, according to a press release (pdf). The working group, chaired by Singapore, will assess the UAE’s compliance with Depa standards.
What is Depa? The agreement, signed in 2020 by Chile, New Zealand, and Singapore, sets common digital trade rules and reduces barriers to cross-border digital commerce. South Korea became the first accession member in May 2024. Seven economies, including China, the UAE, and Canada, have applied to join.
#5- Adia-backed Ardonagh raises USD 2.5 bn: One of the world’s largest independent ins. Brokers, Ardonagh Group, which is backed by the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority, raised a USD 2.5 bn equity round, it said in a statement. The investment — led by US private equity firm Stone Point Capital — values Ardonagh at USD 14 bn and makes Stone Point a major new shareholder, alongside existing backers Adia, Madison Dearborn Partners and HPS Investment Partners.
Where will the money go? Ardonagh, which has placed USD 18 bn in annual premiums, said the funding will support its global expansion following a string of recent acquisitions, including the AUD 2.3 bn takeover of Australia’s PSC Ins. Group.
PSAs-
#1- Budget airline Flydubai is starting to resume normal operations after regional airspaces mostly reopened, with direct flights to St Petersburg restarting today, according to a companystatement. Flights to Iran — with the exception of Mashhad — remain suspended until Saturday, 5 July. Routes to Iraq, Israel, Jordan, Lebanon, and Syria have returned to normal.
#2- Emirates NBD to charge remittance fees for non-core corridors: Emirates NBD will charge an AED 26.25 transfer fee for all non-core transaction corridors from 1 September, except for outbound transactions to India, Pakistan, Egypt, and the Philippines, Gulf News reports, citing a statement from the bank. The fee will only apply to international transactions outside of the zero-fee corridors and made through its app-based and online platforms, such as DirectRemit.
DATA POINT-
Some 22.4k new Indian firms began operating in the UAE in 1H 2025, marking a 10% y-o-y increase and bringing the total volume of Indian companies in the country to 264.7k, state news agency Wam reports, citing Economy and Tourism Minister Abdullah bin Touq Al Marri.
THE BIG STORY ABROAD-
Most foreign outlets are leading with US President Donald Trump’s “big, beautiful bill” this morning, which narrowly passed the Senate following an all-nighter vote-a-rama. The sweeping legislation — which introduces a trove of tax cuts and reductions to spending on social safety net programs, and boosts immigration enforcement spending — will now head to the House for final approval ahead of Trump’s 4 July deadline.
It’s not going to be easy: Division within the Republican party over some aspects of the bill could make it difficult for the bill to pass, with some hardliners demanding steeper spending cuts, other affected states objecting to changes to Medicaid financing mechanisms, and still some concerned about the USD 5 tn increase in the debt ceiling that the bill is expected bring. (Reuters | Bloomberg | Guardian | Wall Street Journal | Financial Times | New York Times)
ALSO- Trump said Israel has agreed to a proposal for a 60-day ceasefire in Gaza which will now be delivered by mediators in Qatar and Egypt to Hamas. The ceasefire will be used as a period during which “we will work with all parties to end the war,” Trump said, while urging Hamas to accept the agreement, warning that “things will only get worse” if it does not. This comes ahead of Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu’s upcoming visit to Washington on Monday, and following an escalation of violence that has killed hundreds in the past day alone. (Bloomberg | Reuters | Guardian | CNBC)
AND- Another Trump deadline is looming: The 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs is set to end on 9 July, and Trump has confirmed it will resume with the tariffs with countries with which it has yet to reach trade agreements, including Japan, which is set to see a 24% tariff on all of its imports. Trump has threatened to hike the levies for Japan further as trade talks falter. (FT)
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MARKET WATCH-
Opec+ is expected to approve a fourth consecutive 411k bbl/d oil supply increase for August this Sunday, according to a Bloomberg survey of 32 traders and analysts. The move follows the previous hikes in May, June, and July that were agreed at triple the initially scheduled pace.
Oversupply risks and weak demand: The group’s rapid output revival is weighing on prices, with Brent futures down more than 9% YTD to USD 68/bbl, following geopolitical de-escalation between Iran and Israel. JPMorgan expects that Brent futures will decline to the low USD 60s later this year, and fall further in 2026, Bloomberg said. Analysts warn that August hike could further swell the anticipated global surplus, adding to price pressure.
By the numbers: The UAE’s planned August output of 3 mn bbl/d is 4% below July’s target and 8% lower than current estimates of actual production, according to a note (pdf) by Emirates NBD. With recent output restraint doing little to support prices, the bank remains skeptical that producers will stick to lower quotas.


