Mubadala, Aldar go AED 10 bn on retail

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Emirates NBD’s 60% RBL takeover needs fresh approval + The Dubai Loop will be bigger than we thought

Good morning, everyone. Today’s issue sees plenty of local heavyweights making big plays. We have Aldar and Mubadala teaming up on an AED 10 bn retail giant, despite the latter still grappling with the angst of Austrian arbitration, and it’s a promising time for AD Ports, it seems, as it explores operating a key DRC port and secures funds for its Egypt ambitions.

We also have exciting news closer to home, with work kicking off on the Dubai Loop and the project turning out to be bigger than first thought.

Plus: We have more 2025 earnings from the likes of Adnoc Distribution and Tecom, and news of Binghatti and Salama looking to tap debt markets.

Watch this space

M&A — Emirates NBD’s bid to take a 60% majority stake in India’s RBL Bank for USD 3 bn hit a regulatory speed bump as the transaction triggered change-of-control reviews across the country’s capital markets infrastructure, according to a company statement. The requirement for fresh nods from the Securities and Exchange Board of India and the depositories shows that cross-border banking M&A in the India-MENA corridor is rarely a straight line. Just last month, ENBD became the first Middle Eastern investment bank to secure a category I merchant banking license from India’s securities regulator.

ICYMI- ENBD is acquiring majority control directly from the bank via a preferential issue for roughly INR 268.5 bn. Under Indian law, taking a majority stake triggers a mandatory open offer to buy up to an additional 26% from public shareholders at INR 280 per share. ENBD will cap its total holding at 74% to comply with India’s foreign ownership limits for private banks PIB.

MOBILITY — RTA to trial autonomous Glydways transit within four months: Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority (RTA) is preparing to launch a pilot of Glydways, an autonomous, electric transit system, with the first trial route expected within the next four months, CEO of US-based Glydways Mark Seeger told Gulf News. The company says the network can move up to 10k passengers per lane per hour via pods carrying up to six passengers.

Initial rollout will cover four key corridors: Phase one is planned across Bluewaters, Umm Suqeim, Al Quoz, and Dubai Festival City. Glydways vehicles will operate on a hail-on-demand basis, priced in line with Dubai public transit fares. Some routes may eventually connect to the upcoming Dubai Metro Blue Line.

ICYMI- Glydways already has plans to test and deploy autonomous mass transit solutions in Abu Dhabi, Space42 and Autonomous A2Z are working to localize level-4 autonomous vehicle production, and the RTA and Baidu are launching Baidu Apollo Go in this quarter. Uber and China’s WeRide also rolled out the first driverless robotaxi services in the capital at the end of last year.

DIPLOMACY — The UAE-Vietnam comprehensive economic partnership agreement (CEPA) is now in effect, bringing into force the trade and market-access measures agreed upon when the pact was signed in 2024, state news agency Wam reports. Vietnam remains the UAE’s largest ASEAN trading partner, with bilateral non-oil trade coming in above USD 16 bn in 2025.

IN CONTEXT- So far this year, the Emirates has inked agreements with Nigeria, the Philippines, and Sierra Leone. Fourteen agreements came into effect by the end of last year, with a CEPA with Japan in the final stages and negotiations with the EU ongoing. The UAE is aiming to hit AED 4 tn in non-oil foreign trade by 2031, though is likely to reach the figure by 2027.

The UAE and Paraguay inked multiple agreements covering airport development and urban rail infrastructure, including an MoU between Abu Dhabi Airports and Paraguay’s National Directorate of Civil Aviation to develop the country’s Silvio Pettirossi International Airport, Wam reports.

Rail collaboration in the cards: Etihad Rail and Paraguay’s Industry and Commerce Ministry inked a heads of terms agreement for the Urban Rail Project — a 44-km rail line the two countries had discussed last November. Back in 2024, Paraguay canceled a USD 500 mn concession agreement with South Korea to build and operate the line. It later opened discussions with other countries on the project, including the UAE.

TRANSPORT — Work on the first phase of the high-speed Dubai Loop transport network will be underway immediately, Reuters reports, citing Dubai Roads and Transport Authority Director General Mattar Al Tayer.

Updates and expansion: The project — which Elon Musk’s construction firm Boring Company is building — now covers a 22.2-km network with 19 stations, up from earlier reports of 17 km and 11 stations, according to Wam. Linking key areas including Business Bay and Dubai World Trade Center, the network carries an AED 2 bn investment ticket and is slated to be up and running within three years. The Loop’s capacity has also been upped, now expected to carry 30k passengers per day, up from initial estimates of 20k.

First up: The first phase will cover 6.4 km and come with an AED 565 mn price tag, linking Dubai International Financial Center and Dubai Mall. The two players are looking to bring the first route online in a year’s time.

DEBT — UAE is rolling over a USD 2 bn loan to Pakistan for one month at the existing interest rate of 6.5%, as the country continues to seek a longer-term arrangement to ease pressure on its foreign exchange reserves, federal government officials told The Express Tribune. The two loans, each worth USD 1 bn and maturing in January, were extended temporarily to allow further negotiations on interest rates and tenor. Pakistan has requested a two-year extension and a rate reduction to around 3%.

BACKGROUND- While Pakistan has previously rolled over debt commitments from the UAE, this time marks a significantly shorter period compared to previous one-year extensions. Islamabad secured financial assurances from the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and China as part of a USD 7 bn IMF loan program — the countries currently hold USD 12 bn in deposits with the State Bank of Pakistan.

TECH — Abu Dhabi tech giant G42 is developing a large-scale computing hub designed to automate the creation and deployment of autonomous AI agents, The National reports, citing G42 CEO Peng Xiao at the World Governments Summit.

The details: The center, which G42 refers to as an agent factory, will be capable of producing 100 tn AI tokens — the smallest units of data used by AI models — per day. It aims to produce AI agents able to operate autonomously across sectors such as healthcare, education, and energy.

The plan is the latest in G42’s ambitious AI agenda, which includes building Stargate UAE as part of a wider 5 GW US-UAE data center campus, working with Nvidia to develop data centers across the region, and a tie-up with Microsoft to invest USD 1 bn in a geothermal data center in Keny a.

Happening today

Our fellow photo nerds in the UAE have been looking forward to this year’s Xposure, which wraps up today in Sharjah. This year’s global celebration of visual storytelling features a who’s who of talented photographers — including our friend Romany Hafez, whose haunting analog work explores memory, presence, and sacred spaces.

The UAE-Kuwait Economic Forum is also wrapping up today in Dubai. The three-day event convenes policymakers and business executives to deepen bilateral economic, trade, and investment ties. The forum should also connect investors and business leaders for partnerships across key sectors including trade, industry, renewable energy, and logistics.

MENA’s MEVCA Investors Summit is on today in Abu Dhabi, gathering the venture capital community as capital allocators and fund managers assess fundraising conditions, LP sentiment, and sector priorities shaping the region’s VC pipeline.

PropTech Connect Middle East is happening today and tomorrow in Dubai, bringing investors, developers, and property-tech firms together to discuss AI, data, blockchain, and digital tools reshaping real estate markets across the region.

The International Arab Actuarial Conference kicks off today and runs until Friday, 6 February in Dubai, bringing together actuaries, insurers, regulators, and banks from across MENA. Sessions will focus on AI, health ins., cyber risk, catastrophe modeling, and pension sustainability.

Happening this week

The World Governments Summit kicked off yesterday and is on until Thursday, 5 February in Dubai under the theme Shaping Future Governments. Government leaders, international organizations, and private-sector executives will focus on governance reform, technology, and global policy challenges.

The big story abroad

US downs Iranian drone as negotiations continue: The simmering US-Iran situation saw a minor flare up after US forces shot down an Iranian drone approaching an aircraft carrier in the Arabian Sea yesterday. US military officials claim the strike was in self defense, as the drone approached the USS Abraham Lincoln aggressively. Diplomatic talks between Washington and Tehran, however, are still ongoing, US President Donald Trump confirmed.

The skirmish rattled oil markets, sending Brent crude up 1.6% to USD 68 a barrel. With markets anticipating escalations, Brent volatility has reached a peak since the last regional conflict.

MEANWHILE, IN MARKET NEWS- Analytics and software stocks fell sharply after Anthropic debuted AI tools that automate legal and analytical work, dragging down tech-heavy Nasdaq by 1.4% and S&P 500 by 0.8%. Analytics heavyweights Gartner and S&P Global saw 21% and 11% drops, respectively. Investors warned that the selloff could spill over to AI hyperscalers, since software companies are among their largest customers.

PLUS- Walmart made history as the first retailer to cross the USD 1 tn valuation mark yesterday, after rising roughly 26% in the past 12 months.

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Aldar + Mubadala fold Yas Mall, The Galleria into single AED 10 bn retail platform

Abu Dhabi builds a mall heavyweight: Abu Dhabi-based developer Aldar and sovereign investor Mubadala Investment Company have completed a joint venture that folds their retail assets Yas Mall and The Galleria Luxury Collection into a single retail platform valued at around AED 10 bn, according to a statement (pdf).

What’s going in: The platform launches with roughly 260k sqm of gross leasable area. Aldar will bring Yas Mall, while Mubadala puts Al Maryah Island’s The Galleria into the tie-up — two mature, income-generating assets, the two said. Occupancy is already high, with Yas Mall at 99% and The Galleria at 92%.

How it’ll be run: Aldar will manage the platform end-to-end, overseeing operations and leasing across both malls. The two have already worked on integration steps, including allowing customer spend and visit data to be tracked across assets.

Still TBC: The partners did not disclose timelines for expansion, capital commitments beyond the initial valuation, or whether additional retail assets could be folded into the platform.

This isn’t Aldar and Mubadala’s first rodeo

The JV builds on a long-running partnership, including their joint development of Al Maryah Island. The two are working on an AED 60+ bn expansion of the district, spanning residential, commercial, hospitality, and lifestyle assets.

Why now

The tie-up aligns with Abu Dhabi’s push to scale destination retail alongside broader urban growth. CEO of Mubadala’s UAE Investments platform Bakheet Al Katheeri framed the JV as a way to unlock Al Maryah Island’s prospects as demand from residents and global businesses grows. Pooling the malls under one platform allows coordinated leasing, marketing, and capital allocation, rather than competing internally.

Background: Retail supply is tight

Prime mall occupancy is nearing 98% in neighboring Dubai, with limited new supply and long handover timelines pushing tenants to renew rather than relocate. The lack of stock is reshaping how firms operate, and competition for flagship sites is intensifying, Cavendish Maxwell Research Manager Ali Siddiqui recently told us. Rents across key districts have risen 7-15%, supported by tourism-led footfall growth.

That squeeze is likely to spill over. As Dubai tightens, Abu Dhabi is increasingly positioned to absorb tenants and brands priced out or constrained. We’ve seen this dynamic before, with the Northern Emirates also drawing steady inflows from Dubai on affordability and supply.

Aldar appears to be positioning for that shift. The developer recently added AED 23 bn in gross development value to its land bank across Saadiyat and Yas Island. The new plots include retail and lifestyle components alongside residential units.

AD Ports Group looks to set up shop in the DRC

Is AD Ports building an Atlantic-to-Red Sea land bridge? AD Ports signed a heads of terms (HoT) agreement to explore developing and operating a multipurpose terminal at Matadi Port — the Democratic Republic of Congo’s (DRC) primary Atlantic gateway, according to a statement.

Right on cue: The UAE signed a comprehensive economic partnership agreement earlier this week with the DRC — aiming to slash tariffs, eliminate trade barriers, and open up private sector collaboration in mining, agriculture, and clean energy.

Why it matters

For AD Ports, this significantly expands its footprint in Africa — adding to its existing logistics portfolio in Egypt, Angola, Tanzania, and the Republic of Congo. By securing a foothold in Matadi, the group is aligning itself at the center of import and export flows in one of the continent’s most strategic trade corridors.

How so, Enterprise? Matadi is a critical maritime gateway for the DRC — a nation that shares borders with nine countries and serves as a natural hub for regional trade in Africa. The port, located along the Congo River, hosts a 350k TEU general cargo capacity and is situated some 150 km upstream from the Atlantic Ocean.

What’s next?

The HoT will serve as a roadmap for both parties — we can expect further technical and commercial assessment as they move toward a definitive agreement for the terminal’s development. Success here would likely lead to streamlined trans-African trade volumes and enhanced global market access for the DRC.

Background

Elsewhere in the region: AD Ports previously partnered with logistics solutions firm CMA CGM on a JV to develop and operate the New East Mole multipurpose terminal in neighboring Congo. Other Emirati players have also secured footholds in the area: DP World is developing a deep-sea container port in the DRC, while state-owned International Holding Company inked an agreement last year to buy 56% of Alphamin Resources, which owns the Bisie tin mine operation in Congo.

Global players are scrambling for a stake in mineral-rich DRC

The DRC holds some 72% of the world’s cobalt reserves and accounts for over 74% of supply. Its exports grew around 37.5% y-o-y to USD 29.6 bn in 2024, settling at 70th place (out of 226) in terms of total exports per country globally, according to OEC data. Imports stood at less than half of that — at USD 11.5 bn.

In other AD Ports news

AD Ports Group locked in capital to finish its Safaga multipurposeterminal in Egypt. The group secured a USD 115 mn project finance facility, backed by a USD 61 mn loan from the International Finance Corporation and USD 54 mn from the National Bank of Kuwait (Egypt). The 15-year tenor funding supports the development of the USD 200 mn Noatum Ports-Safaga Terminal, set to become the first internationally operated port in Upper Egypt.

Why it matters: The Safaga project aims to move freight from road to sea and reduce logistics distances for Upper Egypt’s mining and agricultural sectors by up to 500 km. The terminal is currently scheduled for completion in 2H 2026. Once operational, it will handle 450k TEUs and 5 mn tons of dry bulk annually, serving as a critical hub in AD Ports’ expanding footprint in Egypt.

BACKGROUND- AD Ports inked a definitive 30-year concession agreement with Egypt’s Red Sea Ports Authority to develop and operate a multipurpose terminal at Safaga Port just over a year ago.

Mubadala granted EUR 700 mn in Signa arbitration, now the courts decide

Mubadala Investment Company secured an arbitration award of more than EUR 700 mn linked to its exposure to the collapsed Austrian real estate group Signa — a ruling that now leaves Austrian courts to decide how awards issued outside the insolvency process are treated, Bloomberg reports, citing the Creditreform creditor association.

IN CONTEXT- Mubadala had sought to recover around EUR 900 mn from Signa entities, founder René Benko, and related trusts, accusing them of financing agreements breaches tied to its lending exposure.

A long-running process: In a previous arbitration case, Mubadala’s Mamoura Diversified Global Holding had filed claims totaling EUR 713 mn, which were rejected in insolvency proceedings — a setback that led the group to flag an expected AED 1.2 bn credit hit linked to its Signa exposure. The arbitration award has since been passed to insolvency administrators and ranks among the largest judicial decisions to emerge from Signa’s collapse.

Where it gets tricky: The award was granted outside Austria’s domestic insolvency regime, leaving courts and administrators to decide whether it can override earlier rejections — a move creditor groups warn could complicate proceedings and further erode remaining funds through litigation costs. Signa also has outstanding dues to judicial firms, meaning it might not even be able to cover insolvency process costs.

Background

The Signa unraveling: Once a heavyweight in Europe’s luxury property market — with trophy assets including Selfridges in London — Signa filed for insolvency in 2023 as higher borrowing costs and tighter credit conditions upended the sector. At the time, its total assets were valued at USD 29 bn. Founder René Benko is currently in custody in Austria following convictions for insolvency fraud, with prosecutors in several countries investigating further allegations. Benko has appealed and denies any wrongdoing.

Binghatti + Salama line up sukuk sales

Binghatti Holding is sounding out the market for a potential international debt offering, Zawya reports. The Dubai-based luxury developer (rated BB- by Fitch Ratings and Ba3 by Moody’s) kicked off investor calls yesterday to market a USD-denominated, five-year, Reg S, senior unsecured sukuk under its USD 1.5 bn trust certificate program. Proceeds are earmarked for general corporate purposes, with plans to list the sukuk on both the London Stock Exchange and Nasdaq Dubai.

This would mark Binghatti’s third foray into the debt market in recent months, following two sukuk issuances in August (USD 500 mn) and September (USD 500) under the same USD 1.5 bn program.

Earnings momentum sets the backdrop: The developer posted a 95.6% y-o-y jump in net income to AED 3.6 bn in 2025 as revenues nearly doubled to AED 12.4 bn amid an active expansion phase, including the launch of an AED 30 bn Mercedes-Benz-branded project in Meydan and reports of early-stage IPO preparations.

ADVISORS- Our friends at Mashreq are quarterbacking the sale alongside Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank, Dubai Islamic Bank, Emirates NBD Capital, and JPMorgan as joint global coordinators. Ajman Bank, Arab African International Bank, Bank ABC, Arqaam Capital, First Abu Dhabi Bank, Rakbank, Sharjah Islamic Bank, and Warba Bank are serving as joint lead managers and joint bookrunners.

In other debt news

Islamic Arab Ins. (Salama) is set to raise up to AED 350 mn through a mandatory convertible sukuk from shareholders Eshraq Investments and Humana Holding, according to a bourse filing (pdf). Proceeds are earmarked to support investments in talent, tech, infrastructure, brand, and distribution, alongside selective M&A.

Adnoc, Tecom, NMDC Energy, and Dubai REIT turn in 2025 results

Adnoc Distribution posts strong 4Q, 2025 earnings

Adnoc Distribution closed out 2025 on firm footing, with 4Q net income up 15.1% y-o-y to AED 668.0 mn and revenue up 7.0% to AED 9.5 bn, according to its management discussion and analysis report (pdf). The quarter was supported by a 7.7% increase in retail fuel volumes and stronger non-fuel retail contribution, helping offset softer commercial volumes.

For FY 2025, net income climbed 15.4% to a AED 2.8 bn, driven by volume growth, margin discipline, and network expansion — the company ended the year with 1k service stations after adding 119 sites, ahead of guidance. Revenue edged up 1.2% y-o-y to AED 35.9 bn.

Fuel vs non-fuel: Fuel volumes increased by a record amount to reach 15.7 bn liters. Non-fuel retail continued to do more of the heavy lifting, with gross income up 14.4% y-o-y and transactions rising 9.3%, the firm said in its earnings release (pdf).

Dividends: Adnoc Distribution proposed a USD 350 mn dividend for 2H 2025, bringing its total dividend for the year to USD 700 mn.

Looking ahead: Adnoc Distribution said it plans to add 60-70 stations and 50-60 fast and superfast EV charging points in 2026. CEO Bader Al Lamki previously said the company has earmarked USD 250-300 mn per year for expansion across the UAE, Saudi Arabia, and Egypt.

Dubai Residential REIT sees 14.5% jump in net income

Dubai Residential REIT’s bottom line hit AED 1.3 bn in 2025, climbing 14.5% y-o-y, according to its earnings release (pdf). The group reported a 9% top-line uptick y-o-y to almost AED 2 bn, and overall results were boosted by sustained leasing activity, high occupancy rates, and improved operational efficiency. Average occupancy was up 1.7% y-o-y to 98.3% and its total asset value reached AED 23.5 bn — up 8.8% y-o-y.

Dividends: The board recommended paying AED 550 mn, 4.2 fils per unit, in dividends for 2H 2025, bringing full-year dividends to AED 1.1 bn. Going forward, payouts will come twice a year, and be equal to at least 80% of net income before fair value changes of investment property.

Tecom logs AED 2.9 bn in revenues

Business district developer Tecom Group saw AED 1.5 bn in recurring net income last year, up 20% y-o-y, according to its earnings release (pdf). Its bottom line was boosted by an AED 608 mn noncash impairment reversal, which brought final net income to AED 2.1 bn. Revenues came in at AED 2.9 bn, up 19% y-o-y, with portfolio expansion, improved rental rates, and strong occupancy levels driving top-line growth across all its commercial, land, and industrial portfolios. Occupancy levels reached 95% for commercial units, 98% for industrial, and 97% for land lease.

Dividends: The board is proposing a 10% hike in dividends to AED 440 mn for 2H 2025, and aims for an overall dividend payout of AED 880 mn for 2026 — subject to shareholder approval.

NMDC Energy reports AED 1.6 bn in net income

NMDC’s EPC unit NMDC Energy posted a 14% y-o-y rise in net income, reaching AED 1.6 bn in 2025, according to its earnings release (pdf). The growth was underpinned by a 29% y-o-y surge in total revenues to AED 18.7 bn, driven by a capacity expansion, growth in international markets, which accounted for 30% of total revenues.

The group’s overall backlog stood at AED 40.1 bn at the end of the year, with the UAE accounting for 80% of the total. Its pipeline came in at AED 58.6 bn at end-2025, and the firm secured AED 13.9 bn worth of awarded projects in 2025.

It is also set to enter new markets, including Nigeria and Europe, the company’s CEO Ahmed Al Dhaheri told Asharq Business in an interview (watch, runtime: 11:44). NMDC rolled out new offices in Shanghai and Taiwan last year, according to its management and discussion analysis report (pdf).

Dividends: The group will increase dividends by 14% to AED 800 mn, 16 fils per share, for 2025, depending on shareholder approval.

New appointments at EIB, Network International, and Enviroserve

Former First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) global private banking chief Michel Longhini (LinkedIn) has been appointed CEO of Emirates Investment Bank, according to a post on LinkedIn. Prior to his tenure at FAB, Longhini was CEO of private banking at Geneva-based private banking and asset management firm Edmond de Rothschild. He also held roles at UBP and BNP Paribas Wealth Management. CityWire previously reported that FAB’s senior managing director and head of elite Murli Adury (LinkedIn) was moving to the region to fill Longhini’s role.

Enviroserve names new CEO: Dubai’s e-waste processor Enviroserve tapped Mahmood Rasheed (LinkedIn) as its new CEO, according to a post on LinkedIn. In his new role, Rasheed will focus on reinforcing the firm’s market position, improving operations, and working with shareholders Tadweer Group and Dubal Holding — which took a 50% stake each in the firm back in 2024. Rasheed joins the company following a 30-year tenure at Dubai facilities management firm Imdaad, where he served as group COO.

Dubai-based digital payments firm Network International appointed Pinar Alpay (LinkedIn) as group chief product and marketing officer, tasking her with overseeing product development and customer relations across the fintech’s regional operations, according to a press release. Alpay’s LinkedIn profile indicates she has been in the role since last December, with previous tenures at digital identity solutions firm Signicat and US fintech and payments company Worldpay.

ICYMI- The appointment comes as Network International looks to expand its regional footprint following its merger with First Abu Dhabi Bank’s payments arm Magnati last October.

EmCoin rolls out multi-asset investment platform + South Korea’s Ssangyong secures USD 250 mn Dubai build

EmCoin launches multi-asset platform

EmCoin launches UAE’s first multi-asset investment platform: Virtual asset firm Emirates Coin Investment (EmCoin) rolled out the UAE’s first onshore investment platform — regulated by the Capital Market Authority — to offer a unified multi-asset ecosystem, according to a press release. Customers can invest in crypto, foreign exchange, US and UAE equities, exchange-traded funds, and commodities, with the platform also offering market insights.

BACKGROUND- The company secured a regulated virtual assets services license from the Securities and Commodities Authority (SCA) last June, making it the first UAE firm able to offer the services. At the time, it also said it was working with the SCA to introduce regulated initial coin offerings for raising capital and investments.

South Korean builder returns to Dubai

South Korea’s Ssangyong Engineering & Construction secured a USD 250mncontract to build two high-rise residential towers in Downtown Dubai after being commissioned by state-owned developer Wasl. The project — part of the Avenue Park Tower development — includes 37- and 43-story mixed-use towers and is slated for completion within 32 months. Ssangyong’s Dubai presence includes projects for Emaar.

MSCI threatens Indonesia with frontier status over “deep-fried stocks”

The Indonesian stock market is facing a reckoning: Index provider MSCI warns of a potential downgrade to the ASEAN country’s status unless reforms are made by May, the Financial Times reports. The move comes amid growing alarm over the country’s “deep-fried stocks” — where concentrated ownership and opaque shareholding structures fuel extreme volatility and raise concerns about coordinated trading that distorts price formation.

The MSCI announcement triggered an immediate crisis in Jakarta, wiping more than USD 80 bn off the Jakarta Composite Index last week, followed by an additional 4.5% drop on Monday. The sell-off has alarmed regulators, who fear a downgrade could trigger bns of USD in capital outflows. Indonesia’s financial regulator and stock exchange chiefs have since resigned.

Just a blip, says the FinMin: Finance Minister Purbaya Yudhi Sadewa characterized the sell-off as a “temporary shock,” maintaining that the country’s economic fundamentals remain strong despite the market volatility.

Why it matters

The “emerging-market” classification, used by MSCI and FTSE Russell, ranks countries between frontier and developed markets, signaling investability while acknowledging some volatility. Indonesia’s status as an emerging market has attracted steady foreign investment, building Southeast Asia’s largest equity market. A downgrade to frontier could trigger up to USD 13 bn in forced outflows, weaken the IDR, raise borrowing costs, and slow growth and job creation, Goldman Sachs told Bloomberg.

Indonesia’s pain points-

The “deep-fried” problem: Investors have long flagged a disconnect between Indonesia’s blue-chip stocks and a group of closely-held companies owned by powerful tycoons. These “deep-fried” stocks often have restricted free floats — the portion of shares available to the public — allowing prices to be easily manipulated or driven to surges on thin trading. Last year, the MSCI Indonesia index fell 3.6%, while the Jakarta Composite rose 20.7%, the widest gap on record.

IN CONTEXT- MSCI’s warning also lands amid broader investor unease over President Prabowo Subianto’s fiscal stance and institutional independence. Steps seen as weakening central bank autonomy and loosening long-standing fiscal discipline have raised concerns over inflation, currency stability, and governance standards.

Don’t hold your breath: A total downgrade to frontier status is unlikely given the sheer size of the Indonesian economy, James Johnstone, co-head of emerging and frontier markets at investment manager Redwheel, told the salmon-colored paper. Still, the MSCI threat is seen as a “bold and dramatic” catalyst for reform, piling pressure on regulators to address long-standing governance issues and boost transparency and liquidity ahead of the May deadline to avoid a major outflow of international capital, he added.

It seems to be working

Regulators have moved to contain the fallout, announcing plans to double the minimum free-float requirement to 15% to improve liquidity and curb volatility, though this is still well below the 25% standard seen in regional peers like India and Hong Kong. MSCI said it will continue engaging with Indonesian authorities and market participants before deciding on next steps.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets are mixed this morning in early trading as investors react to the tech-led selloff on Wall Street. Markets are also closely following the results of Japan’s Lower House election, which are also expected to significantly impact the JPY.

ADX	10,473	+1.3% (YTD: +4.8%)
DFM	6,614	+0.6% (YTD: +9.4%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	5,375	+1.7% (YTD: +10.0%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	3.4% o/n	3.7% 1 yr
TASI	11,329	+0.1% (YTD: 8.0%)
EGX30	48,979	+2.9% (YTD: +17.1%)
S&P 500	6,918	-0.8% (YTD: +1.1%)
FTSE 100	10,315	-0.3% (YTD: +3.9%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,995	-0.2% (YTD: +3.5%)
Brent crude	USD 67.85	+2.3%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.31	+2.3%
Gold	USD 4,935	+6.1%
BTC	USD 76,804	-2.2% (YTD: -12.4%)
Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	USD 3.78	-0.3% (YTD: +0.8%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	151.39	-0.1% (YTD: -0.3%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	USD 18.29	+11.9% (YTD: +8.4%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The DFM rose 0.6% yesterday on turnover of AED 1.1 bn. The index is up 9.4% YTD.

In the green: Sukoon Takaful (+6.2%), National Cement Company (+5.6%), and National General Ins. Company (+4.7%).

In the red: Mashreqbank (-7.5%), National International Holding Company (-6.1%), and Amlak Finance (-2.2%).

Over on the ADX, the index rose 1.3% on turnover of AED 2 bn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was up 1.7%.

CALENDAR

FEBRUARY

Signposted to happen sometime this month: Investopia, Lagos, Nigeria.

31 January-7 February (Saturday-Saturday): Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open, International Tennis Center, Zayed Sports City.

3-5 February (Tuesday-Thursday): The World Governments Summit, Dubai.

4 February (Wednesday): Ministerial dialogue for Pax Silica members, Washington, DC.

4 February (Wednesday): Investors Summit, ADGM, Abu Dhabi.

4-5 February (Wednesday-Thursday): PropTech Connect Middle East, Grand Hyatt Dubai.

4-5 February (Wednesday-Thursday): MRO Middle East, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

4-6 February (Wednesday-Friday): Arab Actuarial Conference, Millennium Plaza Downtown Hotel, Dubai.

9-11 February (Monday-Wednesday): AIBC Eurasia, Dubai Festival City, Dubai.

10 February (Tuesday): AVCJ Private Equity Forum, Four Seasons Hotel, Abu Dhabi.

11 February (Wednesday): Family Office Summit, Park Hyatt Dubai, Dubai.

11-13 February (Wednesday-Friday): MedTech World Middle East, Dubai.

12-15 February (Thursday-Sunday): The Society for Incentive Travel Excellence Global Conference, Abu Dhabi.

9-12 February (Monday-Friday): World Health Expo (WHX), Dubai.

10-11 February (Tuesday-Wednesday): Top Advisors and Investors Summit, Abu Dhabi.

MARCH

31 March – 2 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Arab Media Summit, Dubai.

26-28 March (Thursday-Saturday): Social Capital Conference, Dubai.

28-29 March (Saturday-Sunday): Emirates International Congress on AI & Visionary Leadership in Transforming Healthcare, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

30 March – 2 April (Monday-Thursday): IAAPA Middle East Exhibition and Conference, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

APRIL

7-9 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Health Summit, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

13-15 April (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

13-15 April (Monday-Wednesday): The International Glass Manufacturing Show, Dubai.

14-16 April: (Tuesday-Thursday): the International Property Show, Sheikh Zayed Rd, Dubai.

21-23 April (Tuesday-Thursday): UITP Public Transport Summit, Dubai.

MAY

11-15 May (Monday-Friday): Dubai Future Finance Week, Dubai.

11-13 May (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center.

19-20 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Capital Market Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

19-22 May (Tuesday-Friday): Abu Dhabi Water and Energy Week, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

JUNE

3-4 June (Wednesday-Thursday): Annual MENA Investor Conference, Ritz-Carlton DIFC, Dubai.

15 June – 15 September (Monday-Thursday): Dubai Mallathon, Dubai.

JULY

31 July (Friday): Large businesses achieving annual revenues equal to or above AED 50 mn must appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

NOVEMBER

9-10 November (Monday-Tuesday): Annual government meetings, Abu Dhabi.

DECEMBER

2-4 December (Wednesday-Friday): UN Water Conference, UAE.

Signposted to happen in 2026:

The UAE to host the Arab Competition Forum;
Investopia Global Talks, Tashkent.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1 January: Deadline for large businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project;
31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing;
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai;
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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