Good morning, lovely people, and happy FRIDAY. All eyes are on today’s talks between the US and Iran in Pakistan, as the fate of the ceasefire continues to hang in the balance.
Two main sticking points remain: The Strait of Hormuz and Lebanon. Iran has shut the Strait in response to attacks on Lebanon, which were their most fatal on Wednesday since the war began. Iran’s closure of the Strait later prompted more threats from US President Donald Trump who said that was “not the agreement we have.”
The Strait is not open, and cannot remain under one state’s control, UAE Industry and Advanced Technology — and Adnoc Chief — Sultan Al Jaber sought to confirm yesterday in a Linkedin post. “The Strait was not built, engineered, financed or constructed by any state. It is a natural passage governed by the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea, which guarantees transit as a matter of right; not a privilege to be granted, withheld or weaponized,” he said.
He goes on to argue that energy flows are exposed and will remain that way unless the Strait is opened, adding that Adnoc itself has loaded cargoes and is waiting on standby before expanding production, “within the constraints of the damage we have suffered.”
Traders are also at the ready: Commodity trader Glencore and Taiwan’s state refiner CPC booked supertankers to load crude from the Middle East for Asia, Reuters reports. CPC confirmed it secured a vessel carrying 2 mn barrels, while LSEG data showed Glencore chartering the tanker Asian Lion, a very large crude carrier (VLCC) of the same size.
As we wait and see the initial outcome of talks later, we at least can breath a proper sign of relief after yesterday was the first day in nearly 40 days that the UAE was spared from Iranian attacks, the Defense Ministry confirmed yesterday.
The government is taking this time to roll out even more support for businesses, with DIFC relaxing reporting and staffing rules, while the Dubai Integrated Economic Zones Authority is deferring payments and stabilizing rents. We dive into the measures in this morning’s Big Story Today, below.
The Central Bank of the UAE also remains positive that the UAE will clock as much growth as last year, confirming a 5.6% growth forecast in its latest annual report.
Also: We speak to premium meats butchery CarniStore’s co-founder about the impact of the war and its disruptions, what it means to close a much-needed investment and lock in liquidity during this time, and how they’re keeping shelves stocked with everything going on in My Morning Routine, below.
WEATHER- We have a final day of sunshine before clouds and rain hit: Expect sunny conditions and highs of 30-31°C in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, with overnight lows ranging between 22 and 23°C, according to our favorite weather app.
Watch this space
WAR — Multinational firms with Middle East operations are reeling from production disruptions in the UAE: Australian packaging firm Orora said its Saverglass unit has stopped bottle production at its Ras Al Khaimah facility after shipping chaos and blocked land routes made operations untenable, Bloomberg reports. The move, driven by blocked shipping and safety concerns amid the ongoing conflict, forced a cut to full-year guidance for its high-end bottle unit.
The disruption is feeding into a broader pattern of operational caution in the UAE: Citibank has kept most of its local branches and offices shut until further notice, after initially planning a reopening. Standard Chartered and Goldman Sachs have also reportedly told staff to leave or avoid offices. Meanwhile, energy players are scaling back exposure, with TotalEnergies suspending offshore field operations across the UAE, Qatar, and Iraq.
IPO WATCH — G42 mulls Khazna IPO + data center push despite war risk: Abu Dhabi’s AI firm G42 is pressing ahead with plans to spin off its units and scale its flagship data center platform, CEO Peng Xiao told Bloomberg. The state-backed company is said to be exploring IPOs for parts of the business even as regional conflict raises fresh execution risks for regional AI infrastructure, with its data center arm Khazna set to go public as early as 2028.
First 200 MW still on track: The group also appears to be maintaining its pre-war timeline to bring the first 200 MW of its wider 5 GW AI US-UAE data center campus in Abu Dhabi online this year. The campus, which is being built by G42, is set to host OpenAI as well as other US tech firms.
IN CONTEXT- G42’s business-as-usual stance comes just weeks after disruptions exposed vulnerabilities in the region’s digital infrastructure. A recent incident affecting cloud and data center operations in the UAE knocked key services offline — exposing how concentrated infrastructure amplifies risk — while the nation’s telecom infrastructure was also targeted. This operational stress coincides with a period where capital markets are effectively shut, with both IPO and debt issuance timelines stalled due to geopolitical uncertainty.
The big story abroad
AI cyber risk is now getting top billing in international business outlets, amid reports that US Treasury secretary Scott Bessent summoned the leaders of some of the largest US banks to discuss the threat posed by Anthropic’s latest model. The model, Mythos, is able to identify and potentially exploit vulnerabilities in major operating systems and web browsers. It’s already been rolled out to select firms, including Amazon and Apple, who should be securing the most important systems.
Meanwhile, Dolce and Gabbana is considering options for a potential sale of Chairman Stefano Gabbana’s 40% stake in the firm, after he resigned yesterday. The luxury fashion house has been struggling to meet terms governing its debt amid headwinds for the sector, with lenders now reportedly seeking some USD 176 in funding to refinance its debt, sources said,
The company might also dispose of real estate assets to raise the funds.
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