Mashreq opens in Oman, expanding its presence to 14 markets

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: UAE targets 5% growth in 2025, focusing on non-oil sectors; Sharjah raises minimum pension to AED 17.5k.

Good morning, friends, and welcome to a quieter news cycle today. Dubai’s inflation has shown a slight dip for 2024, while DIB is increasing its stake in Turkey’s TOM Group to 25%. On the horizon, the UAE is aiming for 5% economic growth in 2025, focusing on non-oil sectors. But first…

IT’S A BIG DAY FOR our friends at Mashreq, who yesterday officially launched in Oman. We were on the ground in Muscat for the day to size up the opportunity and have a full report in this morning’s news well, below.

WEATHER- We’re in for a cloudy and windy day: The National Center of Meteorology forecasts partly cloudy conditions in northern areas today, with moderate to strong winds at times causing blowing dust and sand. Temperatures today will hit 23°C in Dubai, with an overnight low of 14°C, and 22°C in Abu Dhabi, before cooling to an overnight low of 15°C.

The UAE is targeting up to 5% economic growth in 2025, with a focus on expanding its non-oil economy, particularly in sectors such as artificial intelligence, data centers, and financial services, Economy Minister Abdullah bin Touq Al Marri told Asharq Business (watch, runtime: 09:29). Currently, the non-oil sector accounts for 75% of GDP, and the UAE aims for that share to hit 80% by 2030, Al Marri said.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

UAE banks' total gross assets hit AED 4.46 tn by the end of October 2024, marking a 1.3% m-o-m rise, according to the Central Bank of the UAE’s recently issued Monetary & Banking Developments report (pdf). Gross credit grew 0.6% m-o-m, reaching AED 2.17 tn, fueled by a 0.6% boost in domestic credit and a 0.7% uptick in external credit.

The domestic credit growth came from increases in government sector credit (up 0.2%), public sector entities (up 3%), and private sector credit (up 0.1%), though credit to non-banking financial institutions dipped 1.8%.

Bahrain’s PE firm Investcorp may be looking to IPO or strike a strategic partnership in the coming years to strengthen its liquidity, said CEO Mohammed Alardhi told Bloomberg (watch: runtime: 5:06) on the sidelines of the ongoing World Economic Forum in Davos. There's no publicly available information about the avenue for the potential IPO. Alardhi emphasized the firm’s optimism about 2025, citing easing macroeconomic conditions, an uptick in private equity activity coupled with strong investor appetite. Investcorp has offices in Riyadh and Abu Dhabi.

DATA POINTS-

#1- Ajman saw an uptick in business sentiment last year as it climbed on the Business Confidence Index to score 135 points, Wam reports, citing the emirate’s Department of Economic Development.

The emirate saw a 16% y-o-y rise in economic licenses issued last year, including 28% growth in industrial licenses, 25% in commercial licenses, and 9% in professional licenses. License renewals also rose by 10% y-o-y to 131,380 licenses during the year.

#2- Some 70.5k companies joined the Dubai Chamber of Commerce in 2024, up 3% y-o-y, bringing the chamber’s total active members to 258.3k, up 18% y-o-y, according to a statement. During the year, the chamber’s members saw their exports and re-exports jump 9.2% y-o-y to AED 309.6 bn.

PSAs-

#1- A section of Hazza bin Sultan Street in Al Ain will be closed from 19 January to 17 July, Abu Dhabi Mobility announced on X. Traffic will be redirected to a temporary road during the closure.

#2- The minimum monthly pension for retired federal employees in Sharjah will be raised to AED 17.5k, provided no other salaries, bonuses, or pensions are received on top of a pension below this rate, according to Sharjah Government Media Bureau statement. This comes under a new supplementary grant decree issued by Sharjah Ruler Sheikh Sultan bin Mohammed Al Qasimi.

#3- Heavy trucks will be banned on Abu Dhabi roads Monday to Thursday between 6:30-9am and 3-7pm starting 27 January under a new schedule announced by Abu Dhabi Mobility, Wam reports. On Fridays, truck movements will be banned between 6:30-9am and 11am-1pm.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- World Economic Forum 2025 kicked off yesterday and will wrap up on Friday in Davos, Switzerland under the theme “Collaboration for the Intelligent Age,” Wam reports. The forum will gather 3k high-profile figures from over 130 countries, with 350 government leaders, including US President Donald Trump — joining via video — European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen, and Chinese Vice Premier Ding Xuexiang. The participants will discuss global challenges, including geopolitical shocks, economic growth, and advancing an inclusive energy transition.

#2- The closed meeting of the World Bank Group’s Cloud Computing Working Group will wrap up Today at the Museum of the Future in Dubai, on the sidelines of the Global Government Cloud Forum which will kick off today, Wam reports.

#3- The Global Government Cloud Forum kicks off today in the Museum of the Future in Dubai. The forum will see participation from government representatives, private sector organizations, think tanks, and international organizations, including the World Bank’s Cloud Computing Working Group. It includes keynotes, panel discussions, and workshops to facilitate collaboration and knowledge exchange pertaining to cloud-enabled public administration.

#4- The International Conference on Pharma and Medicine begins today and runs through 23 January at the Sharjah Research, Technology, and Innovation Park. The event offers a platform for potential collaboration in the pharma manufacturing and healthcare sectors.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Nothing but The Donald on the front pages this morning, as he took the oath as the 47th US president last night. Donald Trump promised to bring back America’s “golden age” before a big crowd, with the world's richest people taking front seats, including Elon Musk, Jeff Bezos, Mark Zuckerberg, Bernard Arnault, Sergey Brin, and Miriam Adelson.

Trump stuck to his words to be a dictator on his first day in office, revoking some 80 of Biden’s policies, issuing executive orders left and right (mostly to the far-right), and sending warnings to neighbors and trade rivals.

On immigration: A national emergency has been declared along the country’s southern border as part of an executive order that opens the door for members of the armed forces to be sent to the US-Mexico border. Another executive order aims to end birthright citizenship to the children of undocumented immigrants starting 30 days from now.
On Gaza ceasefire: The US President doesn’t seem confident about the ceasefire in Gaza, saying “that's not our war, it's their war, but I'm not confident... Gaza is like a massive demolition site... it's really got to be rebuilt in a different way."
On climate: The world’s second largest polluter will soon be out of the Paris Climate Accords, leaving America among only a handful of nations not part of the worldwide effort to tackle climate change.
On AI: Trump rescinded a 2023 order by Biden that requires AI developers to share safety tests for systems that could pose risks on national security, economy, or public health.
On TikTok: Trump signed an order to suspend the ban on TikTok in the US for 75 days.

Meanwhile, the US Senate unanimously approved veteran Republican Marco Rubio as secretary of state to be the first pick in Trump’s new administration.

More on: New York Times | Reuters | Financial Times | NPR

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MARKET WATCH-

Indian state refiners, including Indian Oil Corp, Hindustan Petroleum, and Bharat Petroleum, are pushing Adnoc to offer Delivered at Port (DAP) pricing, alongside traditional FOB terms, Reuters reports. This comes as they face rising costs from US sanctions and higher freight rates. India typically obtains Russian crude on DAP terms, where sellers cover shipping and insurance costs, unlike the FOB model used by most Middle Eastern producers.

REMEMBER- With the US new sanctions tightening Russian and Iranian oil supplies, India and China are scrambling to secure alternative sources, pushing Middle East crude spot premiums to a two-year high.

It is unclear if Adnoc will accommodate the request, as the oil giant rarely offers DAP terms. Indian refiners are also planning to approach suppliers like Saudi Aramco with similar proposals and have started including DAP options in spot tenders to assess the most cost-effective pricing strategies.

CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-

The annual meeting of the Global Research and Expertise Network for Peste des Petits Ruminants will wrap up tomorrow, after it kicked off in Abu Dhabi on Monday, Wam reports. The event gathers over 80 experts and decision-makers from 30 countries to discuss strategies for controlling the viral disease affecting goats and sheep. It includes representatives from global reference centers, such as CIRAD (France), the Pirbright Institute (UK), and CAHEC (China), along with regional organizations like the EU, GCC, and African Union.

The Sharjah Real Estate Exhibition (Acres) will take place between 22-25 January at the Expo Center in Sharjah. The event features networking and business prospects in the property sector, face-to-face discussions with developers and industry experts, and exploration of the latest trends in real estate.

Nvidia RTX AI GameCraft will take place on 23 January at Emirates Towers Boulevard in Dubai. Hosted by the Dubai Future Foundation in collaboration with Nvidia GeForce Middle East, the event will gather game developers, students, and industry professionals to create innovative games using Nvidia’s RTX AI technology. Some 15 developers will make it to the finals to compete for the top three spots.

BreakBulk Middle East will take place between 10-11 February at the Dubai World Trade Center. The event will gather over 7.5k professionals from the manufacturing, EPCs, project ownership, and transport sectors, providing ample networking prospects and driving potential customer leads.

The World Local Production Forum will take place between 7-9 April at the Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center. The World Health Organization event will bring together global leaders to discuss sustainable local production and strategies to enhance access to quality health products.

The International Real Estate and Investment Show will take place between 17-19 October in Abu Dhabi. The event, organized by Dome Exhibitions, will bring together developers, brokers, and investors to discuss innovation and sustainability trends in the real estate sector, as well as investment prospects.

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

Mashreq opens in Oman, has appetite for tourism, logistics, manufacturing, renewable energy

It’s a homecoming of sorts for our friends at Mashreq, a leading MENA financial institution and our anchor partners here at EnterpriseAM UAE. The Dubai-headquartered lender started life in 1967 as the Bank of Oman and yesterday opened its first branch in Muscat.

The formal addition of Oman to Mashreq’s footprint gives the bank a direct presence in 14 markets and major global financial centers, ranging from the UAE and Egypt to Pakistan, London, Mumbai, Hong Kong, and New York.

With Oman increasingly on the radar for regional companies and investors alike, we spoke in Muscat with some of Mashreq’s top execs about why Oman, why now, and what the opportunity looks like going forward.

Mashreq’s strategy in Oman is to capitalize on deepening trade and investment ties between the UAE and Oman as the Dubai-headquartered lender builds on its decades-long involvement here. It’s good timing: Oman emerged from 2024 as one of the most intriguing places to do business in the Middle East, with IPO flows that dwarfed London, a commitment to economic growth and diversification, and an ambitious series of growth targets.

Why does Mashreq like Oman? Group Head of International Banking Tarek El Nahas singled out “logistics, tourism, manufacturing, and renewable energy,” among other sectors, pointing to Oman’s ambitious Vision 2040 program, which calls for the building of a globally competitive economy while prioritizing environmental sustainability.

Real estate is also on Mashreq’s radar, El Nahas added, saying, “We have already funded a number of real estate developments in the tourism industry and we’re exploring with the government how we can bring some of our UAE experience to the funding of smart cities.”

In that vein, Mashreq has appetite for large-scale development projects, said Chairman Abdul Aziz Al Ghurair. “We have the balance sheet we need to support large-scale projects of the type that will be very important to the Omani economy over the coming 5-10 years and beyond. Banks will need to be able to write large tickets, to make decisions quickly, and to make decisions locally. That’s what Mashreq does: We set our strategy and make our decisions here in our region, not in London, and then we layer-in the best technology and know-how that we’ve refined in the UAE and across our global footprint, whether we’re serving the largest corporations or individual clients.”

Mashreq is no stranger to the Sultanate, said Group CEO Ahmed Abdelaal. “We’ve been here for decades working with corporate clients, the government, and quasi-governmental agencies,” he noted, adding that its market entry is “in line with Oman’s Vision 2040 and emphasizes unlocking value for our clients through corporate banking, sustainable finance, and digital innovation.”

“The UAE is Oman’s largest trade partner, making it an obvious priority for us as we grow,” said Al Ghurair. “While we have been doing business here with the government and corporates for more than 25 years, it’s clear that we need to be on the ground now. His Majesty Sultan Haitham Bin Tariq Al Said’s strategy has made the market very attractive — the chance to have an impact on the nation’s economy and to play a role in opening up investment opportunities is massive. We’ve had tremendous support from the Central Bank of Oman for our digital-led approach,” Al Ghurair added, pointing out that Mashreq has closed 95% of its branch network in the UAE, saying it can better serve clients through digital channels.

“GCC banks are among the most forward-looking globally,” El Nahas said, pointing to regional banks’ agility, focus on customer experience, and adoption of new technologies. “Our clients are looking for an edge in a competitive, interconnected world, whether they’re aligning with global trade flows or exploring high-potential new markets. Our mission is to help clients capitalize on those opportunities. We see a future where businesses in Oman are building a competitive, knowledge-driven economy that is backed by the entrepreneurial spirit of a new generation. That’s the story we want to be a part of: Helping create growth for our clients and for the nation as a whole,” he added.

What’s in the pipeline right now for Mashreq? “We’ve long been partners with the sovereign and many of the government-related entities and larger corporate clients here in Oman, where we’ve been involved in multiple debt capital market transactions in the past two or three years for players such as Energy Development Oman,” El Nahas said. “We’re in active discussions with the government on sovereign issuances, and we’re seeing more and more of our clients — regional and international alike — enter Oman. There is a lot of foreign direct investment coming into the country, and it’s on the cusp of investment grade. We want to bring more regional and global businesses into the country, then serve their needs, whether that’s local-currency solutions or cash-management solutions. In parallel, we want to be a conduit to global markets for Omani companies.”

“Government institutions and large corporates are clearly attractive and we’re open to multiple sectors,” said Alsalt Al Kharusi (LinkedIn), an Omani citizen and veteran of HSBC and Oman Arab Bank who joined Mashreq a year ago to launch the franchise in Oman.

El Nahas was careful to note Mashreq’s credentials in the sustainable finance segment, pointing out that “we’ve made a commitment to assist in raising sustainable finance worth USD 30 bn by 2030. We’re well on the way — in fact, we’re slightly exceeding our targets. And it’s not just in the UAE; we’re leading on sustainable financing for our clients across the GCC, in India, in Africa. This is exactly in line with Oman’s strategy on digital transformation and sustainable finance.”

Mashreq isn’t entering as a competitor to Omani banks, but a partner, Abdelaal noted. “Our aim in entering any new market is to work in partnership with local institutions. Our strength is that we link up global markets through our network and our technology, whether those markets are the UAE and Mumbai — or London, New York, Hong Kong, and Shanghai. Our presence in Asia and Africa are specific strengths, as is our high digital metabolism.”

Mashreq aims to be profitable in Oman from day one, said Al Ghurair, a goal he says is rare and possible “because of our unique segment of clients here.”

BACKGROUND- The UAE and Oman are becoming ever closer trade partners. UAE and Omani companies inked agreements worth a combined USD 35 bn in April 2024, including the launch of a large-scale tech fund, an AED 117 bn energy megaproject, and the UAE-Oman railway, among others. UAE officials and their Omani counterparts have singled out industries including digital infrastructure, food security, energy, and transportation as priority sectors.

Dubai’s average annual inflation cools slightly in 2024

Dubai’s average inflation for 2024 slowed down to 3.27% in 2024, from 3.33% in 2023, according to figures (pdf) from the Dubai Statistics Center. Food and beverage prices increased at slower rate of 2.33% last year, down from 4.57% in 2023 — a change that helped offset an increase in the pace of rising prices of housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels to 6.74%, up from an average of 5.68% in 2023.

Dubai’s annual inflation fell to 2.89% in December, down from 3.01% in November, the figures showed. The lower inflation reading was mainly driven by decreased inflation of transport, information and communication, and clothing and footwear during the month.

The breakdown: Prices of housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels — the largest component of the basket of goods and services — increased at the highest pace recorded throughout 2024 to 7.23% in December, compared to 7.21% in November. However, annual transportation inflation fell by 4.90%, information and communication went down by 2.05%, and clothing and footwear declined by 1.27% during the month. Meanwhile, personal care and social protection inflation rose at a slower rate of 1.94%, down from its 2024 peak of 3.25% in November.

REMEMBER- Fuel prices fell in December by nearly 5%, except for a marginal increase in diesel, following a 3% price increase in November.

Month-on-month, Dubai’s inflation increased 0.45% in December, remaining unchanged from the previous month’s reading, according to the statistics center’s monthly inflation report (pdf).

Dubai Islamic Bank ups stake in Turkey’s TOM Group to 25%

DFM-listed Dubai Islamic Bank (DIB) raised its shareholding in Turkey’s TOM Group offinancial services companies, according to a disclosure to the exchange. The group comprises Turkey’s first licensed digital retail bank TOM Katılım Bankası (TOM Bank), e-payments company T.O.M. Pay, and fintech player T.O.M. Finansman, along with their subsidiaries.

The details: DIB raised its stake in the group to 25%, up from 20%. The acquisition comes just 16 months after DIB’s initial investment in the group, which included an option to bump up its holding within 12 months of the transaction.

The pitch: The transaction was driven by TOM Group’s strong market performance and the successful launch of its digital bank, Group CEO of DIB Adnan Chilwan said, adding that “the increased shareholding not only solidifies DIB's position as a key stakeholder in Turkey’s thriving digital banking sector but also underscores our deep-rooted belief in the country’s strategic intent around tech-based economic development.”

A snapshot of TOM Bank’s 1H 2024 earnings: The digital bank recorded a net loss of TRY 209.8 mn during the first half of 2024 down from a net income of TRY 88.8 mn in 1H 2023, according to its latest financial statement (pdf).

Other Emirati players have an appetite for Turkey’s banking sector: In October 2024, Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund ADQ inked a definitive agreement with a consortium led by Lebanese lender Bank Audi to acquire 96% of Odeabank, currently Bank Audi’s subsidiary in Turkey. Additionally, First Abu Dhabi Bank (FAB) was also reportedly close to finalizing talks to take a 61.2% stake in Yapi Kredi, but negotiations were terminated as seller Koc sought a higher price. Emirates NBD fully acquired Denizbank from Sberbank for TRY 14.6 bn in 2019.

UAE job market grows by 4.2% y-o-y in 2024 - Cooper Fitch

The UAE job market grew by 4.2% y-o-y in 2024, led by the real estate, banking and finance, and technology sectors, Khaleej Times reports, citing Cooper Fitch’s 4Q GCC Employment Index and the UAE 2025 Salary Guide (pdf). The country also recorded a 3% increase in job creation in 4Q 2024, compared to the previous quarter. Meanwhile, some 41% of UAE employers have raised salaries for new hires in 2024, while 30% maintained them at the same level, and 29% issued reductions.

Headcount to rise and salaries to remain stagnant: Some 54% of the employers surveyed expect to expand their workforce in 2025, while 31% predict a reduction in headcount. On the other hand, less than half of the employees are expected to witness a salary increase in 2025, with only 44% of the employers surveyed intending to increase paychecks this year. Meanwhile 30% plan to cut the salaries by 0-10% and 26% will leave payroll expenses unchanged .

REMEMBER- Human resources consulting firm Robert Half reported in November that about 63% of UAE business leaders expect an increase in employee headcount to accommodate growth plans over the upcoming 12 months.

Employers trust their candidate pool, as 66% of the employers’ responses suggest that the available candidates in the UAE will meet their hiring needs this year. The main talent gaps in the UAE job market are in the sectors of mining, consulting and professional services, hospitality and tourism, government, and technology.

Zooming out to the region: The GCC job market grew by 5% y-o-y in 2024 which was mainly driven by the energy, real estate, and technology sectors. Meanwhile, job opportunities grew by 2% in 4Q 2024 across the region. On the other hand, sectors such as cloud, legal, banking, finance, and supply chain saw hiring declines in 4Q.

Private credit emerges as Mubadala’s top-performing asset over the past three years

Private credit has been Abu Dhabi sovereign wealth fund Mubadala’s top-performing asset class for three straight years, Deputy Group CEO Waleed Al Mokarrab told Bloomberg in Davos. While he did not share specific returns, he credited the fund’s success to a cautious approach: “We’ve been able to manage [private credit] well and not take too much risk.”

Mubadala has six private credit partnerships across the US, Europe, and Asia:

#1- Last November it extended its multi-bn-USD partnership collaboration with Apollo Management, focusing on private debt and equity financing.

#2- Last February, it teamed up with Goldman Sachs to co-invest USD 1 bn in private credit targeting “high-quality companies and sponsors” in the Asia-Pacific region.

#3- Mubadala established a USD 2.5 bn JV with Alpha Dhabi to co-invest in global credit last January.

#4- The wealth fund also took on the role of anchor investor for a private credit fund set up by Starz Real Estate and targeting European property in November 2023.

#5- In September 2023, the fund committed USD 1 bn to Blue Owl Capital, to support its tech lending strategy.

#6- In March 2023, it allocated another USD 1 bn to a JV with Ares Management and signed on as an anchor investor for Blue Opal Capital ’s second venture capital fund ahead of its IPO.

Mubadala isn’t alone: Sovereign wealth funds from the region are at the forefront of the private credit trend, Global SWF said, with the Abu Dhabi Investment Authority anchoring several initiatives, including Pemberton’s USD 1 bn net asset value financing strategy and a South Korean real estate credit fund managed by alternative asset manager SC Lowy. Global SWF forecasts that the UAE’s sovereign wealth funds are expected to continue to lead the trend of state-owned investors rushing into private equity and credit markets.

REMEMBER #2- Mubadala was the lead SWF investor in 2024, deploying USD 29.2 bn across 52 transactions — rising 67% y-o-y. The Abu Dhabi fund collectively manages some USD 1.7 tn in assets.

Mubadala ❤️ the US: Some 41% of Mubadala’s assets under management are based in the US. “The US is still the best risk-reward I see, globally speaking,” Al Mokarrab said. The fund is also exploring opportunities in Asia, particularly in India, Japan, and China.

Abu Dhabi developer Eagle Hills set to develop the EUR 12 bn Grand Budapest

REAL ESTATE-

Abu Dhabi-based developer Eagle Hills is set to develop a EUR 12 bn sustainable, smart district in the Hungarian capital called Grand Budapest after it sealed an agreement for the project with the governments of UAE and Hungary, the company said in a statement. The mixed-use project is expected to boost Hungary’s GDP by 2%. It will feature green buildings, renewable energy networks, and smart waste management solutions.

Europe’s tallest buildings, mini-Dubai? The project, which will be constructed in place of a dilapidated rail station, will feature towers that will reach up to 500 m, rendering them among the tallest in the EU, Bloomberg reports, citing a statement from the Hungarian Economy Ministry. The district has been dubbed as mini-Dubai by locals due to its resemblance to Dubai-styled flashy neighborhoods. Eagle Hills secured the 85-hectare land plot for the project for HUF 51 bn (USD 128 mn), which will be paid in three installments, according to the business news outlet.

Acube Developments launched residential tower Vega in Dubai Sports City, the developer's third project in the UAE, according to a press release. The project is estimated at AED 1.5 bn, Acube’s Chairman and Managing Director Ramjee Iyer told Zawya. Construction on the 23-story development kicked off in 4Q 2024, with handover slated for 2Q 2027.

Meydan awarded a AED 1 bn contract to Ginco General Contracting to build the second phase of District One West in Mohammed Bin Rashid Al Maktoum City, according to a press release. The contract will see Ginco construct 229 four- to six-bedroom villas, in addition to infrastructure works. The project is scheduled for completion in 1Q 2028.

M&A-

Integrated construction services provider Arco Turnkey Solutions just bought into UK-headquartered Laing O’Rourke Joinery — one of Dubai's largest joinery firms, in a move aimed at boosting its operations and production capacity across the UAE, Construction Week reports. There’s no information about the transaction size. The acquisition includes a 50k sqm facility in Jebel Ali Industrial Zone, expanding Arco’s production hub to 70k sqm. This plays into the company’s plans to manufacture premium joinery products and deliver modular units for projects in the UAE, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia.

US and UK-based investment firm Blue Skye has fully acquired UAE-based fitout and construction player ISG Middle East, according to a joint statement. There’s no publicly available information on the transaction size. The move will support ISG’s growth into Dubai’s villa market, by tapping into Blue Skye’s access to expanded resources and its broad network of expertise, the news release read.

LOGISTICS-

US logistics firm Expeditors plans to launch a warehousing and fulfillment facility at Dubai South’s Logistics District under a partnership it signed with the city, according to a press release. The facility, set to kick off operations next month, will house two stations — a warehousing station and a container freight station.

The details: The warehousing station will be responsible for inventory management, labeling, order and transportation management, compliance inspections, and quality control, while the container freight station will be in charge of consolidating and segregating shipments, providing export services, and managing unit load device breakdowns.

FINANCIAL SERVICES-

Bahraini financial products marketplace Daleel launched its services in the UAE, according to a statement. Backed by investors like Flat6Labs and Salica, Daleel’s expansion introduces platform upgrades tailored to UAE consumers. The company also plans to secure an open finance license sometime this year.

About Daleel: It simplifies financial decision-making by matching customers with tailored products such as credit cards, mortgage plans, and savings accounts, offering a cost-effective way for financial institutions to boost their customer base.

ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE-

Dubai launched a new six-tier certification system for AI companies, AI Seal, in a bid to boost the credibility of AI services providers, the Dubai Media Office said in a post on X. AI companies will be able to display their AI seal across their online platforms and promotional materials. The system certifies each company as S, A, B, C, D, or E depending on the nature of their activities, project portfolio, and level of contribution to the AI sector. Applications for the AI Seal can be filed here.

TECH-

India-based proptech platform Relata launched its operations in Dubai through a JV between Cognilements International and Neeraj Srivastava, who will serve as Chairman of the new entity, Relata GCC and Africa, according to a statement. Relata’s platform aims to accelerate real estate sales by offering VR, AI, and advanced analytics tools for both customers and developers.

What a second Trump presidency could mean for the MENA region

US president-elect Donald Trump’s return into office is widely expected to have a considerable influence on the economies of the Middle East at large, with Trump having already dropped some hints over what could be expected from his second term during rallies and campaign addresses held during the weeks following his election into office for the second time. Some economists predict that Trump’s tariffs will put extra pressure on US inflation, particularly as he has vowed — although not immediately delivered — a 60% tariff on Chinese goods, as well as a 10% tariff on imports from other countries.

The potential inflationary pressure could push the US Federal Reserve to delay its next round of interest rate cuts, Capital Economics’ James Swanton wrote in a report seen by EnterpriseAM. A Reuters poll of economists echoes the same sentiment, suggesting that the Fed will keep rates on hold when its Federal Open Market Committee meets next Wednesday, 29 January. “If they [Trump’s administration] deliver anything close to what they promised on the tariff front, then we are going to probably see a stalling of disinflationary pressures, where the Fed is not going to be cutting," said Barclays Senior US Economist Jonathan Millar.

What this means for us in the region: As Gulf central banks follow the Fed’s monetary policy decisions by virtue of their USD pegs, they would also hold off on cutting interest rates. For non-Gulf countries, such as Egypt, high interest rates in the US mean higher sovereign borrowing costs.

Trump is also widely expected to impose new sanctions on Iran — which, along with sanctions on Russian oil, is expected to lead to higher oil prices this year, Swanton said. However, rising global supplies of oil and LNG are expected to cause prices to fall back — which could, in turn, cause “the current account and budget balances in the Gulf to deteriorate. Many governments, notably Saudi’s, will turn to fiscal consolidation,” according to Swanton.

More US oil production could directly result in price pressures in oil-producing states in the region: Trump also signaled his intentions of increasing US oil output during his term — which, coupled with estimates from OPEC and the International Energy Agency projecting relatively weak demand for oil in 2025, could create additional price pressures result in “budget tightening by oil-producing states in the Middle East, in turn increasing the risk to government contractors of payment delays and challenges for contracting new projects,” according to a report from advisory firm DGA Group.

However, the potential impact of Trump’s presidency on the region's macro outlook may be over-stated: “The region as a whole is relatively sheltered from a protectionist trade shift in Trump’s second term. The bigger risks to the outlook stem from geopolitics, although the agreed Israel-Hezbollah ceasefire and overthrow of the Assad regime in Syria have potentially paved the way towards a de-escalation of tensions,” Swanton argued.

The truce represents a chance to improve economic conditions in the region, particularly for Egypt, Alraya Consulting Managing Partner Hany Abou El Fotouh told us. “The ceasefire improves regional stability, which will encourage foreign investments and revitalize tourism. For Egypt, the stability of navigation in the Suez Canal is a crucial economic gain, as the canal is a significant source of hard currency. Stability also helps alleviate pressures on Egypt's national security and allows resources to be redirected toward development,” he said. Cairo-based economist Medhat Nafei agreed with this, adding that he expects the escalations in the trade war between the US and China to present a chance for the government to provide incentives for private sector players to increase exports, filling a gap in the US market.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

It’s a mixed morning for Asian markets, with investors largely holding their breaths as they adopt a wait-and-see approach following the inauguration of US President Donald Trump last night. Japan’s Nikkei is just barely in the green, while South Korea’s Kospi and the Shanghai Index have slipped into red territory.

The picture is more or less the same across the pond, with Wall Street futures broadly flat in anticipation of potential tariffs with several US trade partners.

ADX	9507	+0.1% (YTD: +0.9%)
DFM	5196	-0.3% (YTD: +0.7%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	4273	-0.1% (YTD: +2.6%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	4.2% o/n	4.3% 1 yr
TASI	12,380	+0.4% (YTD: +2.9%)
EGX30	29,619	-0.4% (YTD: -0.4%)
S&P 500	5997	+1.0% (YTD: +2.0%)
FTSE 100	8521	+0.2% (YTD: +4.3%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5164	+0.3% (YTD: +5.5%)
Brent crude	USD 79.79	-1.2%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.83	-3.0%
Gold	USD 2731.80	-0.6%
BTC	USD 102,830.20	-0.9% (YTD: +10.2%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The ADX rose 0.1% yesterday on turnover of AED 830.7 mn.The index is up 0.9% YTD.

In the green: Sharjah Cement and Industrial Development Co. (+4.5%), Americana Restaurants International (+4.2%) and Presight AI Holding (+2.2%).

In the red: Finance House (-9.9%), Rapco Investment (-7.5%) and OOREDOO (-5.6%).

Over on the DFM, the index fell 0.3% on turnover of AED 558.9 mn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai fell 0.1%.

CALENDAR

JANUARY

19-24 January (Sunday-Friday): Coling2025, Abu Dhabi.

20-22 January (Monday-Wednesday): FESPA Middle East, Dubai World Trade Centre, Dubai.

20-22 January (Monday-Wednesday): The Fiber Connect Council Conference and Exhibition, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

21 January (Tuesday): The Global Government Cloud Forum, the Museum of the Future, Dubai.

21-23 January (Tuesday-Thursday): The International Conference on Pharmacy and Medicine, The Sharjah Research, Technology, and Innovation Park, Sharjah.

23 January (Thursday): The Nvidia RTX GameCraft, Emirates Towers Boulevard, Dubai.

22-25 January (Wednesday-Saturday): The Sharjah Real Estate Exhibition (Acres), Expo Centre, Sharjah.

27-30 January (Monday-Thursday): Arab Health Exhibition, Dubai World Trade Centre, Dubai.

28-29 January (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

FEBRUARY

1-6 February (Saturday-Thursday): Dubai Fashion Week, Dubai Design District.

1-8 February (Saturday-Saturday): The Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open, Zayed Sports City's International Tennis Centre.

2-3 February (Sunday-Monday): L’Etape Dubai cycling race, Dubai.

3-6 February (Monday-Thursday): Medlab Middle East, Dubai World Trade Center.

7 February-29 April (Friday-Tuesday): The Abu Dhabi Festival, Abu Dhabi.

8-20 February (Saturday-Thursday): Dubai Games 2025, Dubai.

10-11 February (Monday-Tuesday) MRO Middle East and Aircraft Interiors Middle East, Dubai World Trade Center.

10-11 February (Monday-Tuesday): BreakBulk Middle East, the Dubai World Trade Center.

10-12 February (Monday-Wednesday): Japan Kyoto Trade Exhibition, Dubai Word Trade Center.

14 February (Friday): The deadline for the consultation period for the Securities and Commodities Authority's draft regulation on security tokens and commodity tokens.

16 February-1 March (Sunday-Saturday): Dubai Dutyfree Tennis Championships, Dubai Dutyfree Tennis Stadium in Al Garhoud.

16 February (Sunday): The International Defence Conference,The Emirates Palace, Abu Dhabi.

17-21 February (Monday-Friday): International Defence Exhibition (IDEX) in Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center.

17-21 February (Monday-Friday): Naval Defence Exhibition (NAVDEX) in Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center.

17-22 February (Monday-Saturday): Gulfood, Dubai World Trade Center.

19-21 February (Wednesday-Friday): International Dialogue of Civilizations & Tolerance Conference, Abu Dhabi Energy Centre.

24-25 February (Monday-Tuesday): World Passenger Experience Forum, Dubai.

24-26 February (Monday-Wednesday): Connecting Hydrogen MENA, Dubai.

28-29 February (Friday-Saturday): Investopia 2024, the St. Regis, Abu Dhabi.

28 February-29 March (Friday-Saturday): Ramadan.

Signposted to happen sometime in 1Q 2025:

The first eight fronds of the Palm Jebel Ali will be site-ready, allowing for the commencement of villa infrastructure and civil works.

MARCH

18-19 March (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

31 March-2 April (Monday-Wednesday): Eid Al Fitr, national holiday.

APRIL

1 April (Tuesday): New ADGM employment regulations come into effect.

1 April (Tuesday): New personal status law comes into effect.

6-11 April (Sunday-Friday): Geo-Spatial Week, Dubai.

7-10 April (Monday-Thursday) : EFG Hermes One on One conference, Dubai.

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Investment Summit, Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): Middle East Energy, Dubai World Trade Center.

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): World Local Production Forum's 3rd edition, Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center.

14-16 April (Monday-Wednesday): Dubai Woodshow’s 21st Edition, Dubai World Trade Center

14-16 April (Monday-Wednesday): IPS congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

16-18 April (Wednesday-Friday): World Future Energy Summit,Abu Dhabi National Exhibition, Abu Dhabi.

21-25 April (Monday-Friday): The Dubai AI Week, Museum of the Future and Area 2071, Emirates Towers, Dubai.

25 April-11 May (Friday-Sunday): Dubai Esports and Games Festival, Dubai World Trade Center.

28 April-1 May (Monday-Thursday): The Arabian Travel Market, Dubai World Trade Center

Signposted to happen sometime in April:

Abu Dhabi Autonomous Racing League, Yas Marina Circuit in Abu Dhabi

MAY

6-7 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Global Ports Forum, Dubai.

6-7 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

13-16 May (Tuesday-Friday): International Union for Health Promotion and Education Conference, Abu Dhabi.

13-15 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Cabsat Middle East and Satellite Middle East, Dubai World Trade Center.

15 May (Thursday): The Economy Middle East Summit, ADGM, Abu Dhabi.

16-18 May (Friday-Sunday): GISEC, Dubai World Trade Center.

19-22 May (Monday-Thursday): Make it in the Emirates, Adnec, Abu Dhabi.

20-22 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Seamless Middle East 2025, Dubai World Trade Center.

26-28 May (Monday-Wednesday): Arab Media Summit, World Trade Center, Dubai.

30 May (Friday): Arafat Day.

31 May-2 June (Saturday-Monday): Eid Al Adha.

Signposted to happen sometime in May:

Asean and GCC summit, Malaysia.

JUNE

17-18 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

24-25 June (Tuesday-Wednesday): Middle East Rail, Dubai World Trade Center.

27 June (Friday): Islamic New Year.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2H 2025:

Closing of XRG's acquisition of Covestro

JULY

29-30 July (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

SEPTEMBER

8-10 September (Monday-Wednesday): DigiHealth exhibition, World Trade Center, Dubai.

16-17 September (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

24-25 September (Wednesday-Thursday): Mohammed Bin Rashid Leadership Forum, Mohammed Bin Rashid Center for Leadership Development, Dubai.

OCTOBER

3-16 October (Friday-Thursday): Dubai Home Festival.

9-15 October (Thursday-Wednesday): IUCN World Conservation Congress, Abu Dhabi.

27-29 October (Monday-Wednesday): Asia Pacific Cities Summit, Dubai Exhibition Center.

28-29 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

NOVEMBER

18-19 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Dubai Future Forum, Museum of the Future, Dubai.

DECEMBER

1-3 December (Monday-Wednesday): Eid Al Etihad (UAE National Day).

1-5 December (Monday-Friday): The World Congress of Neurosurgery, Dubai World Trade Center.

9-10 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2025:

The Middle East Electric Vehicle Show, Expo Center Sharjah.
e& will complete Adnoc’s private 5G network.
Executive Committee Meeting (EXCOM 2025) conference of the World Smart Sustainable Cities Organisation (WeGO)
The International Civil Aviation Organization’s Global Implementation Support Symposium, Abu Dhabi.
Universal Postal Congress 2025, Dubai.

Signposted to happen sometime in the fall of 2025:

2025 Games of the Future, Dubai.
ICOM General Conference 2025, Dubai

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

The UAE to host the Arab Competition Forum
Dubai to host the Arab Actuarial Conference
United Nations Water Conference 2026, UAE
9-11 January (Friday-Sunday): 1 Bn Followers Summit’s fourth edition, UAE

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