LuLu Group to tap ADX in what could be the biggest IPO this year

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Mubadala is close to acquiring a stake in healthtech firm Zelis + Abu Dhabi to hike film rebates at the start of 2025

Good morning, lovely people. It’s another busy newsday, dominated by IPO news as LuLu Group lays out its plans to tap the ADX in November and Dubizzle updates its syndicate for an IPO in 2025.

?️WEATHER- We could be getting more rain and fog across the UAE today, according to the National Center of Meteorology’s forecast (here, pdf, and here). Cumulus clouds in the eastern and southern regions could see scattered showers, and a fog is setting in over Abu Dhabi and Al Ain.

Temperatures will hit 37°C in Dubai today, before cooling to an overnight low of 31°C. Meanwhile in Abu Dhabi, the mercury will peak at 32°C, with an overnight low of 30°C.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

#1- State-owned Masdar plans to focus its renewables efforts across the Middle East, Europe, Asia, and the US with a fairly equal split as it looks to increase its wind and solar capacity to 100 GW by 2030, the company’s CEO Mohamed Jameel Al Ramahi told the Financial Times in an interview. The move would place Masdar above rivals like Spanish Iberdrola, French Engie, and German RWE.

The breakdown: The company sees 30-35% of its power generation coming from the Middle East, 20% from Europe, and 20-25% from the US, in addition to Asia, Al Ramahi said, adding that the company seeks an equal split between solar and wind projects.

REMEMBER- The Abu Dhabi-based company has been doubling down on global expansion. Earlier this year, it agreed to acquire a 50% stake in Spanish power firm Endesa’s solar power installations subsidiary EPGE Solar for AED 3.3 bn. It also agreed to acquire Greek renewables giant Terna Energy. In the US, Masdar acquired a 50% stake in Terra-Gen, a significant player in the renewable sector. It also owns a 49% stake in the UK's Dogger Bank South project, set to be the world’s largest offshore wind farm upon completion.

#2- Mubadala is close to acquiring a minority stake in healthtech firm Zelis that would value it at some USD 17 bn, Bloomberg reports, citing sources it says are familiar with the matter. The sovereign wealth fund is finalizing the details of a transaction that would see it invest a mix of equity and debt for a minority stake in the firm from its owners, Bain and Parthenon Capital, with other co-investors set to join in the coming weeks. The two owners were reportedly looking to sell a 20-25% stake in the company.

#3- The Abu Dhabi Film Commission is raising its rebate on TV and film productions to 35%, up from 30%, as of 1 January 2025, Variety reports, citing statements from Abu Dhabi Film Commission chief Sameer Al Jaberi. The details of the rebate and whether it will be capped will be announced closer to the date of its implementation, Al Jaberi said.

The rationale: “From an economic perspective the money we’ve spent on the rebate [over the past decade] has had an economic multiplier effect of roughly three times the investment,” Al Jaber told Variety. The goal is to also encourage filmmaking year-round in the emirate, relying less on seasonal weather, Al Jaberi told the National separately.

Background: Abu Dhabi has been making a push into the filmmaking industry, with more than 150 international productions filmed there since the incentive program was launched in 2013. The move to hike the rebate also comes as competitors in the region — like Saudi Arabia — offer their own rebates, with KSA offering 40% rebates since 2022. The emirate is also building production facilities — dubbed twofour54 Studios — which it plans to open this time next year, the National reports.

#4- Ras Al Khaimah Digital Assets Oasis is set to roll out a legal framework for decentralized autonomous organizations (DAOs), with details to be unveiled at the DAO Legal Clinic on 25 October, CoinTelegraph reports. The framework aims to clarify the legal and governance requirements for DAOs establishing operations in the emirate, specifically addressing tax obligations and benefits. It will also facilitate property ownership for both on-chain and off-chain assets and provide legal protection against personal liability for DAO founders, members, and contributors.

SOUND SMART- A decentralized autonomous organization is an organizational structure where decision-making lies with token holders rather than a central authority, operating on a bottom-up management approach. DAOs use blockchain tech to record all votes and activities transparently.

PUBLIC SERVICE ANNOUNCEMENTS-

#1- It’s a wrap for Al Khail Road upgrades: Dubai's Roads and Transport Authority (RTA) completed developments on Al Khail Road, including the construction of five bridges and road widening at seven different locations, according to a statement from RTA. The project claims to cut travel time by 30% and increases accommodation capacity to 19.6k vehicles per hour.

#2- More Indian passport holders are now eligible for visas on arrival to the UAE, after the Federal Authority for Identity, Citizenship, Customs, and Port Security expanded the policy to include holders of valid tourist visas from the EU, US, or UK, state news agency Wam reports. To qualify, travelers must ensure their visa and passport are valid for at least six months.

SIGN OF THE TIMES-

You can soon get access to a virtual lawyer in the UAE: The Justice Ministry is planning to launch a “virtual lawyer” designed to assist legal institutions in creating pleadings for simple cases, according to a ministry X post. The virtual lawyer will use a Unified National Legislative Texts Database set to be established by the ministry, with law firms looking to use the lawyer required to contribute to the database. Key features will include interaction with human judges, voice-to-text conversion, and document submission capabilities.

When will it launch? The pilot version is scheduled to go live sometime in 2025.

DATA POINT-

#1- Dubai and Abu Dhabi tied for first place in the new ease of entry metric introduced to Kearney’s Global Cities Index. The metric gauges the ability to attract and retain foreign talent. The Global Cities Outlook saw Dubai rise by 10 ranks in innovation, mainly driven by a boost in the private investments metric.

#2- Dubai's property market saw a record high of over 18k transactions in September, Property Monitor said in a press release. The real estate intelligence firm reports that 73% of these transactions were for off-plan properties. The figure surpasses the previous record of 17.1k transactions in May and signals a continued upward trend, with total sales year-to-date exceeding 131k.

Residential transactions accounted for over 95% of September's total, with Emaar leading off-plan sales with 2.3k registrations, followed by Damac Properties with 1.5k and Sobha with 810.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan will attend the BRICS summit in Kazan, Russia, which kicks off today and runs until Thursday. This marks the UAE's first participation in the summit since its formal admission as a member last year.

#2- The Alternative investment Summit is on its second and final day at the Jumeirah Emirates Towers. The event will bring together key decision makers and professionals interested in the alternative investment space, with Economy Minister Abdullah bin Touq Al Marri and former UK Prime Minister Boris Johnson set to attend.

#3- The UAE is participating in the International Monetary Fund and World Bank GroupAnnual Meetings, which kicked off yesterday in Washington, DC. The UAE Finance Ministry will host the UAE Banks Reception on the sidelines to build connections between the UAE’s public and private sectors and international financial institutions. The meetings wrap up on Saturday.

What to expect: Yesterday’s Planet Finance laid out the big themes to look out for and the global challenges structuring the conversation.

#4- The Premier Port Development Middle East & Africa Forum wraps up today at the Movenpick Grand Al Bustan, Dubai. The forum brings together industry leaders and key stakeholders to discuss the latest trends and strategies on the ports infrastructure in the region.

#5- The Roads, Bridges, Tunnels MENA Conference wraps up todayat the Movenpick Grand Al Bustan, Dubai. The conference focuses on developments in the construction sector, featuring discussions on market trends, construction technologies, sustainable building materials, and potential investments in the region.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

The Foreseeing Government Audit Future Conference will take place on 24 October at Madinat Jumeirah, Wam reports. Organized by the Financial Audit Authority, the event will be held under the theme “Tomorrow’s Auditor” and will gather key figures, senior officials, and experts in auditing, finance, and economics to discuss the future of government auditing.

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THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

The US elections and attempts towards a ceasefire in Gaza and Lebanon are once again pushing business news to the bottom of digital front pages.

US Secretary of State Antony Blinken’s return to the Middle East in hopes of securing a ceasefire — for the eleventh time — is getting attention, as other US officials held talks in Beirut for conditions for a ceasefire. It’s not clear where Blinken will be holding ceasefire talks in the region.

The situation on the ground: Israel continued to strike Beirut and Syria yesterday, killing at least four near one of Lebanon’s largest public hospitals and two in a missile attack on a car in Syria. Crowds of Palestinians were evacuated from the Jabaliya refugee camp, where around 400 people have been killed over the past two weeks, while over in Lebanon, Israel is setting its sights on a hospital it says houses Hezbollah money — a claim yet to be backed up by any sort of evidence. (Reuters | Bloomberg | CNN | The Guardian)

Also still getting attention: The US elections money race, in which Kamala Harris is emerging as a victor with some USD 1 bn raised in three months, surpassing the USD 894 mn Donald Trump has gathered since January 2023 for his campaign. (Financial Times)

Elon Musk’s pledge to hand out USD 1 mn checks to voters signing for his free-speech and gun rights petition is also seeing some scrutiny in the foreign press, with legal experts weighing in on whether the move could be seen as an illegal way of paying people to vote.

LuLu Retail to sell 25% stake in ADX IPO, set to be the biggest this year

Supermarket chain LuLu Group is planning to offer up to a 25% stake (or c.2.6 bn shares) in an IPO on the ADX for its retail business, Lulu Retail, according to an intention to float (pdf). The IPO could potentially raise some USD 1.7-1.8 bn (AED 6.24-6.61 bn), Zawya quoted sources it says are in the know as saying, while Bloomberg said the IPO could value the company at USD 5 bn “at least.”

Refresher: LuLu Group tapped advisors in March to work on the IPO, with reports saying it could be done through a dual listing on Tadawul and ADX, though the company later reportedly decided to scrap dual-listing plans. LuLu Group kicked off an investor roadshow yesterday to market the IPO.

The details: The eight-day subscription period for both retail and institutional investors is between 28 October and 5 November. Shares are expected to begin trading on 14 November, according to the statement. Institutional investors will get 89% of the allocated shares, while retail investors can subscribe to 10% of the shares, with the final 1% reserved for senior executives at the company, according to the company’s prospectus (pdf).

About Lulu Retail: LuLu Retail is the largest pan-GCC full-line retailer, operating over 240 hypermarket, express, and mini-market stores across the six GCC countries and serving over 600k shoppers.

A glimpse into LuLu’s earnings: LuLu Retail saw its net income rise 133% y-o-y to USD 143.9 mn in 1H 2024, while revenues increased 5.6% y-o-y during the period to USD 3.9 bn, according to financials it published ahead of the IPO.

Dividends: LuLu plans to pay dividends worth 75% of its annual net income after tax. Dividends will be paid semi-annually, with the distribution for 2H 2024 set to take place in 1H 2025.

Biggest IPO of the year? The potential value of the IPO places it north of Spinneys, which raised AED 1.38 bn on the DFM in May; NMDC Energy’s AED 3.22 bn IPO in September; edtech firm Alef Education’s AED 1.89 bn IPO ; and Abu Dhabi National Hotels ’ (ADNH) catering business, ADNH Catering, which raised AED 864 mn earlier this month.

ADVISORS- Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, Citigroup, Emirates NBD Capital and HSBC Holdings are joint coordinators and bookrunners, while Alrajhi Capital, EFG Hermes UAE, First Abu Dhabi Bank, and Goldman Sachs have been tapped as bookrunners. ADCB, Citigroup, Emirates NBD Capital, HSBC Holdings, and EFG Hermes UAE are also joint lead managers, while FAB and ADCB are joint lead receiving banks, along with our friends at Mashreq, Dubai Islamic Bank, Emirates Islamic Bank, and Emirates NBD, who are acting as receiving banks. Moelis & Co. is also acting as an independent financial advisor.

There’s more in the ADX pipeline:

ADNH Catering’s shares are set to start trading on the ADX tomorrow;
Alpha Data could tap the bourse this year;
Etihad Airways has tapped advisors for what could be the Gulf’s first airline IPO next year.

Dubizzle taps new banks for 2025 IPO

Dubizzle taps new banks for 2025 IPO: Dubai-based platform Dubizzle Group has reportedly appointed Emirates NBD, Goldman Sachs, HSBC, and Morgan Stanley to work on its planned IPO in 2025, IFR reports, citing a source close to the transaction. Dubizzle had previously appointed Citigroup, alongside HSBC, for the IPO in 2023.

A USD 1 bn sale? The business information service says the transaction could raise between c. USD 500 mn and USD 1 bn.

THE DFM PIPELINE AT A GLANCE-

German last-mile delivery firm Delivery Hero tapped banks for the IPO of its food delivery unit Talabat in 4Q 2024;
Construction firm Alec tapped advisors for a planned IPO sometime in 1H 2024;
Amanat Holdings is looking to list its education and healthcare units, with reports that its healthcare unit could raise some USD 200 mn as soon as this year;
Hospitality group Five Holdings tapped advisors for a potential IPO next year;
Shisha producer Advanced Inhalation Rituals was said to be eyeing an IPO in 1H 2024.

Adnec acquires Royal Catering to cater to new sectors

Adnec takes over Royal Catering: Modon Holding subsidiary and Abu Dhabi events conglomerate Adnec Group inked definitive agreements to acquire 100% of the Abu Dhabi-based Royal Catering for an undisclosed sum, according to an ADX disclosure (pdf). Adnec will merge its newly acquired firm into its existing catering business Capital Catering, increasing Capital’s production capacity.

The rationale: Adnec aims to expand Capital Catering’s operations to serve larger contracts across more industries, diversifying its focus beyond aviation, defense and healthcare.

Part of a wider expansion plan? The company said it will continue to “organically and inorganically” expand its catering platform, with plans for operational enhancements post-acquisition to boost its growth, according to the disclosure.

About Royal Catering: The company has a production capacity of more than 50k meals daily, serving industries such as energy, defense, healthcare, and education.

OTHER M&A NEWS-

Dubai business district developer Tecom Group completed its AED 720 mn Office Park acquisition from Emirates REIT, according to a DFM disclosure (pdf). The annual income of the commercial asset, which exceeds AED 60 mn, will be recognized by Tecom starting from 4Q 2024. The acquisition brings Tecom’s total investments in commercial and industrial assets to AED 2.7 bn. Tecom received the final green light for this move after Emirates REIT’s shareholders approved it last week.

Abu Dhabi to offer subsidies to agrifood producers?

Abu Dhabi plans to offer subsidies to local and international agrifood producers in a bid to become a “net exporter in the future,” Fatima Al Dhaheri, head of Abu Dhabi Investment Office’s (ADIO) food and water division, told Bloomberg. The subsidies will cover everything from livestock and fish farming, to alternative proteins and algae, and will be offered on a case-by-case basis, Al Dhaheri explained.

Subsidies are not all that’s planned: The government could also move to invest directly in some businesses. The investment office will also work with companies to use tech that can boost efficiency in food production, such as desalination, Al Dhaheri added.

The UAE is already laying the groundwork for food security, having launched the AgriFood Growth and Water Abundance (Agwa) cluster in Abu Dhabi last June. The cluster — led by the Abu Dhabi Department of Economic Development and the ADIO — is set to attract AED 128 bn in investments and is expected to create over 60k jobs by 2045. The plan is to ramp up the agriculture sector’s contribution to GDP from just 0.1% currently, by adding AED 90 bn of incremental GDP by 2045 from the sector, Al Dhaheri told Bloomberg.

REFRESHER- Agwa already has projects in its pipeline: In June, Agwa partnered with cultivated meat producer Believer Meats to expand cultivated meat production, with the company set to establish its regional headquarters in Abu Dhabi as part of the agreement. Agwa also inked an agreement with Swiss alternative protein specialists Nuos to build an innovation center and food manufacturing facilities for alternative protein production in the emirate.

Becoming a net exporter is within reach, experts say, despite the UAE currently importing 85-90% of its food, according to the climate change and environment ministry (pdf). The government has “already been very proactive in terms of having greater control and scaling up supply chains,” said Christian Henderson, a lecturer on Middle East studies at Leiden University in the Netherlands.

GCC banks’ liquidity can weather escalating regional tensions, S&P says

Emirati banks could face up to USD 59 bn in external funding outflows in a high stress outcome from regional tensions, accounting for 26% of the anticipated USD 221 bn potentially exiting the region under this scenario, S&P Global said in a recent report. However, S&P sees these banks coping due to sufficient external liquidity and government intervention, which together provide a layer of resilience that should help navigate various levels of stress.

This is the case for most GCC banks: S&P’s “stress tests” show that most GCC banks are well-positioned to weather these challenges, even in severe stress scenarios. Thanks to the USD 284 bn in liquid assets held by regional central banks, commercial banks have a buffer to manage significant withdrawals. Regional governments are also likely to step in if asset liquidity is less than forecasted.

#1 Modest + moderate stress: In the modest stress scenario, S&P sees the conflict lasting no more than three months, with minimal disruption to GCC banking. Attacks on regional assets would be short-lived, and credit ratings would remain stable, with no significant outflows or spike in non-performing loans (NPLs). Under the moderate stress scenario, the impact on economic growth, energy prices, and trade routes would be temporary and manageable, with no major funding outflows or asset quality issues in the cards.

#2- Meanwhile, in the high stress scenario — if conflict escalates into prolonged regional instability — external funding outflows could hit USD 221 bn, or roughly 30% of the GCC banking system’s total external liabilities. Even then, banks have adequate external liquidity to handle the drain. However, the impact on asset quality could be more troublesome. Non-resident deposits could see up to 30% outflows, and the stock of NPLs could increase by 30%, or an NPL ratio of 5%. S&P projects that 13 of the top 45 banks in the GCC would suffer losses, with cumulative losses totaling USD 3.3 bn.

#3- Worst-case? The severe stress scenario envisions a full-scale conflict involving regional and global actors including the US and Gulf states. The resulting disruptions would severely impact energy prices, trade, and overall economic stability. S&P projects additional deposit outflows of USD 275 bn from local private sector deposits, with Saudi Arabia and the UAE seeing the most significant impacts due to the size of their banking systems. Despite the doomsday overtones, GCC banks are expected to be capable of weathering the storm due to liquidity and boosts from central banks.

Asset quality would deteriorate further in this worst-case scenario, with NPLs rising by 50%, leading to a cumulative NPL ratio of 7%. More than half of the top 45 banks in the GCC would likely report losses, amounting to USD 24.6 bn in total and some banks would be forced to liquidate portions of their investment portfolios.

Earnings season in full swing: ADNH, Ajman Bank, and RakBank report their numbers

RAKBANK-

The National Bank of Ras Al Khaimah (Rakbank)’s net income after tax rose 32.6% y-o-y to AED 599.7 mn in 3Q 2024, according to its financial statements (pdf). The lender logged AED 1.2 bn in operating income during the quarter, up 7% y-o-y. Net interest income and net income from Islamic financing for the quarter rose 7% to AED 901 mn.

On a nine-month basis, Rakbank’s net income jumped nearly 25% y-o-y to AED 1.69 bn. The bank recorded AED 3.55 bn in operating income, marking an 8.1% y-o-y increase, while net interest income and income from Islamic finance increased to AED 2.66 bn, up 8% y-o-y during the first nine months of the year.

Behind the robust performance: “This success is underpinned by strong balance sheet growth on both sides of the balance sheet, well diversified business mix and prudent risk management, positioning us well for continued growth. The bank remains well capitalized and continues to deliver strong shareholder returns,” Rakbank’s CEO Raheel Ahmed said in the earnings release (pdf).

ADNH CATERING-

ADNH Catering publishes first financials: Abu Dhabi National Hotels’ (ADNH) catering business ADNH Catering reported a 27.8% y-o-y decline in net income to AED 100.9 mn in the first nine months of the fiscal year running between July 2023 and June 2024, according to its financials (pdf). Revenues dipped 5% y-o-y to AED 1 bn.

REMEMBER- ADNH Catering is set to debut on the ADX tomorrow. The company raised AED 864 mn in gross proceeds for its IPO, selling a 40% stake in ADNH Catering. The offering was “multiple times” oversubscribed and priced at AED 0.96 per share — the upper end of the AED 0.91-0.96 range initially guided.

AJMAN BANK-

Ajman Bank’s turned to the black with a net income of AED 74 mn in 3Q 2024, after turning a loss of AED 189.6 mn in the same period in 2023, according to its financials (pdf). The bank’s operating income slightly increased by 3.3% y-o-y to AED 386.2 mn.

On a nine-month basis, the lender’s bottom line came in at AED 289.5 mn, after turning a loss of AED 87.3 mn in 3Q of last year. Income before tax was the highest in the company’s history at AED 313 mn, according to an earnings release. Ajman Bank also achieved AED 1.2 bn in operating income, rising by 8.7% y-o-y during the period.

Mered appoints Michael Belton as new CEO

Real estate developer Mered appointed Michael Belton (LinkedIn) as its newCEO, according to a press release. In this role, Belton will focus on expanding the company’s portfolio in the UAE, including the development of the Iconic Tower and Al Reem Island project. Belton previously served as head of development for Saudi Arabia's Qiddiya Performing Arts Center and as CEO at Wainbridge Capital.

Abu Dhabi to get Mandarin Oriental-branded project

REAL ESTATE-

#1- Abu Dhabi is set to get its first Mandarin Oriental-branded development under a new partnership between the Hong Kong-based hospitality group and Aldar, according to a press release. The development will be located on Saadiyat Island, and will feature 228 luxury homes. Sales are expected to open later this year.

#2- Paying rent in Dubai is about to get easier: The Dubai Land Department tapped proptech company Keyper Holdings to use its property management platform to allow tenants to pay their rent via debit and credit cards, with options to pay in installments of up to 12 months, according to the Dubai Media Office.

The partnership also aims to streamline sales, leasing, and mortgage registration via electronic integration with the Keyper app, as well as facilitate the management of owners’ association fees via integration with the Mollak platform.

#3- Dubai Holding rebranded its residential portfolio as Dubai Residential, from Dubai Asset Management, following the merger of Nakheel and Meydan earlier this year, according to a statement.

CAPITAL MARKETS-

Financial services company Finance House will funnel AED 300 mn into the Abu Dhabi Securities Exchange through its brokerage arm Finance House Securities to boost the market’s liquidity and stability, according to a press release.

TECH-

#1- Abu Dhabi's Crown Prince Sheikh Khaled bin Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan approved plans for three new ventures under VentureOne, the Advanced Technology Research Council commercialization arm, during the ATRC’s latest meeting, according to the Abu Dhabi Media Office. The ventures, scheduled to launch later this year, focus on quantum data security, smart autonomous mobility, and robotics-driven agritech.

#2- Adnoc Distribution is developing over 20 AI-powered tools to optimize its operations, the CEO of Adnoc’s retail arm Bader Al Lamki told the National on the sidelines of the Gitex Global tech conference. Adnoc Distribution has been leveraging AI and data analytics to strategically deploy new stations based on location, traffic conditions, and demographics, Al Lakmi said. He also expected the Smart Fuel Demand Prediction Model, used by the company to forecast the daily needs of customers and future demand, to help the company save up to USD 34 mn over the next five years.

ALSO- Adnoc Distribution plans to introduce AI-powered, self-service checkout kiosks at its convenience stores, which can recognize products quickly and complete transactions in under 30 seconds, Al Lakmi said.

TRANSPORT-

Parkin, Saaed to partner on mobility infrastructure projects: Dubai’s public parking operator Parkin inked an MoU with traffic services provider Saaed for Traffic Systems to collaborate on transport and mobility infrastructure projects under both the public and private sectors, according to the Dubai Media Office. No further details were given on the projects they will work on.

LOGISTICS-

Emirates has ordered five additional Boeing 777 freighters, set to be delivered in 2025 and 2026, bringing its total freighter orderbook to 21, according to a statement, which did not disclose the value of the order. The airline, which is looking to boost its freighter capacity, will continue with plans to convert 10 passenger Boeing 777-300ERs into freighters, says the statement.

It doesn’t end there: The airline has also inked a multi-year lease extension for four Boeing 777s in its current fleet with aviation services firm Dubai Aerospace Enterprise, the statement said. Based on the two orders, Emirates Skycargo is slated to double its existing fleet of 11 units to 21 production-built Boeing 777s by December 2026.

FINTECH-

MBME Group payments subsidiary MBME Pay signed an agreement with ruya to provide its services to the digital-first Islamic bank’s customers, according to a press release (pdf). No further details were disclosed.

WAREHOUSING-

Abu Dhabi Airports Free Zone (ADAFZ) inked a musataha agreement with Radius Group to develop a AED 320 mn warehouse complex in the Al Falah District, according to a statement. The project, spanning 140k square meters, will offer over 90k square meters of premium warehouse space and is expected to be completed in two years.

ADVISORS- Knight Frank Mena’s Industrial & Logistics division advised Radius on the land lease process.

What is a musataha agreement? A musataha is a long-term investment partnership between the public and private sectors, granting investors the rights to develop land owned by another party for up to 50 years, shifting design, finance, and operational risks to the private sector.

MANUFACTURING-

Pure Ice Cream to churn up an AED 80 mn factory Dubai’s Industrial City: Pure Ice Cream, manufacturer of Kwality Ice Cream and Hershey’s Ice Cream, will build an AED 80 mn production facility at Dubai Industrial City under a musataha agreement, according to a press release. Spanning 160k sq-ft, the factory is expected to be among UAE’s largest ice cream factories and is slated for launch in 2026. The new facility will boost production capacity by 300%, reaching 30 mn liters annually to serve Pure Ice Cream’s markets across the GCC, USA, Africa, and Southeast Asia.

RETAIL-

Indian jeweler Bhima Jewellers is set to open 15 new stores across the UAE over the next three years, following the inauguration of its new head office in Dubai, Khaleej Times reports, citing chairman B. Govindan. The company also aims to tap into other GCC markets, with Qatar and Bahrain as initial targets, Govindan said. To support this expansion, the company aims to raise AED 1 bn from high-net-worth individuals and foreign institutional investors, marking its first foray into external fundraising.

The (gains) party on Wall Street could be winding down

In the decade ahead, returns from the S&P 500 aren’t expected to remain as high as they were in the past 10 years, according to two separate notes from Goldman Sachs and Deutsche Bank.

Where the market stands now: With a two-year bull market under its belt, the S&P recently delivered its best 9M performance in 27 years, rising c.21% during the January-September period, according to market data. Historically speaking, in the years that the index has delivered double-digit increases during the first three quarters of a year, it typically records a positive fourth quarter as well.

The rally could be winding down and US equities are likely looking at a much leaner decade ahead, Goldman Sachs strategists including David Kostin said in a note, according to Bloomberg. The investment bank sees S&P 500’s annualized nominal returns clocking in at just 3% over the next 10 years, well below the long-term average of 11% and a far cry from the 13% recorded in the last decade.

Bonds are the new black: The analysis suggests that equities will take a backseat as assets like bonds become more appealing. Goldman sees a 72% chance that the S&P 500 will underperform treasuries, and a 33% likelihood that it will lag behind inflation through to 2034, meaning investors should brace for lower-end stock market returns.

Local + global conditions make it “difficult to get further upside”: It’s unlikely that the S&P 500 will continue to register the same levels of return growth, Deutsche Bank analysts also said.

“With a soft economic landing increasingly priced in, it feels more difficult to get further upside growth surprises from here,” the analysts said, particularly when considering potential external shocks from geopolitical turmoil.

Big tech is delaying the slide, but won’t save the day: While the S&P 500 has bounced back by 23% this year, the boost was largely driven by a few tech giants. Goldman’s team anticipates broader returns in the years to come, predicting that the equal-weighted S&P 500 will outperform the market cap-weighted benchmark. Even if the tech-heavy rally continues, average returns won’t top 5% — remaining below the historical norm.

ALSO WORTH NOTING-

Europe wants its very own SEC: The European Securities and Markets Authority (Esma) is making a bid to become the EU’s equivalent of the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC), with Esma seeing the need for greater centralization in supervising the bloc’s capital markets, President Verena Ross tells the Financial Times. The Paris-based watchdog aims to tighten its grip on Europe’s stock exchanges and financial infrastructure, seeking to revitalize the region's markets and boost investor confidence amid rising demand for capital.

Not everyone’s on board: Smaller EU member states like Luxembourg and Ireland are pushing back, worried the plan could undermine their local markets which rely more on localized authority. Meanwhile, bigger players like France and Germany are all for the move, seeing the benefits of syncing regulations across borders. “Let’s evaluate in which areas it would make sense to move a step further to central EU supervision,” Ross added.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

US futures are a sea of red this morning, extending yesterday’s downturn and dragging down early trading in Asia-Pacific markets. Japan’s benchmark Nikkei is firmly in the red this morning, while Hong Kong’s HSI is timidly in the green.

ADX	9,275	-0.1% (YTD: -3.1%)
DFM	4,478	+0.2% (YTD: +10.3%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	3,772	+0.1% (YTD: -1.8%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	4.8% o/n	4.3% 1 yr
TASI	12,008	+1.1% (YTD: +0.3%)
EGX30	30,445	+3.1% (YTD: +22.3%)
S&P 500	5,854	-0.2% (YTD: +22.7%)
FTSE 100	8,358	-0.3% (YTD: +8.1%)
Euro Stoxx 50	4,941	-0.9% (YTD: +9.3%)
Brent crude	USD 74.00	+1.3%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.31	+2.4%
Gold	USD 2,739	+0.3%
BTC	USD 67,697	-1.6% (YTD: +60.6%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The DFM rose 0.2% yesterday on turnover of AED 232.2 mn. The index is up 10.3% YTD.

In the green: National International Holding Company (+11.4%), Emirates REIT (CEIC) (+10.4%) and Emirates Reem Investments Company (+7.1%).

In the red: Takaful Emarat (-8.7%), BHM Capital Financial Services (-4.4%) and Al Mazaya Holding Company (-2.6%).

Over on the ADX, the index fell 0.1% on turnover of AED 1.13 bn. Meanwhile Nasdaq Dubai closed up 0.1%.

CORPORATE ACTIONS-

Takaful Emarat’s capital restructuring: Ins. company Takaful Emarat reduced its capital to AED 25.6 mn by canceling 124.4 mn shares, according to a DFM disclosure (pdf). This will be followed by a capital increase of AED 185 mn once it obtains approvals from the Securities and Commodities Authority (SCA).

Background: This reduction is part of a capital restructuring plan the firm revealed in February, aimed at offsetting the AED 132 mn accumulated loss the company had incurred as of 31 December 2023.

DIFC-licensed financial services firm Al Khair Capital distributed dividends of USD 300 per share, delivering an annualized yield of 12%, for its healthcare fund ’s 2Q earnings, according to a press release.

UAE district cooling firm Tabreed tapped xCube as a liquidity provider for its shares on the DFM, the company said in a press release (pdf).

UAE, Ireland to ink bilateral treaties tackling organized crime

The UAE and Ireland signed two bilateral treaties on extradition and mutual legal assistance, according to an Irish government statement. The agreements aim to support “the effectiveness in their cooperation in fighting organized crime and to facilitate extradition.” They follow negotiations between Justice Minister Abdullah Bin Sultan Bin Awad Al Nuaimi and his Irish counterpart Helen McEntee to ramp up bilateral cooperation in criminal justice matters. The treaties now await signoff from the Dáil, the lower house of Irish parliament, to enter into force, according to the BBC.

With the extradition treaty signed, Ireland is expected to formally request the extradition of the leaders of the Irish drug cartel, Kinahan, whose senior lieutenant, Sean McGovern, was arrested by Interpol in Dubai recently, the Financial Times reports. Despite the government freezing the cartel’s assets in the UAE in 2022, Kinahan members are still reportedly present in Dubai.

UAE President Sheikh Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan vowed to help resolve the conflict in Ukraine during informal talks with Russian President Vladimir Putin on Sunday, Reuters reports. Putin extended his appreciation to the UAE for its recent mediation efforts, which facilitated the ninth UAE-brokered prisoner swap between Russia and Ukraine, Wam reports. The two heads of state also discussed strengthening bilateral ties and the situation in the Middle East.

CALENDAR

OCTOBER

20-23 October (Sunday-Wednesday): The International Congress and Convention Association (ICCA) Congress, Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre, Abu Dhabi.

20-24 October (Sunday-Thursday): The NBE Egyptian Super Cup, Mohammed bin Zayed Stadium and Al Nahyan Stadium, Abu Dhabi.

21-22 October (Monday-Tuesday): Port Development MEA Forum, Dubai.

21-22 October (Monday-Tuesday): Roads, Bridges, Tunnels MENA Conference, Dubai.

21-22 October (Monday-Tuesday): The Alternative Investment Summit, Dubai.

23 October (Tuesday): ADNH Catering’s shares begin trading on ADX.

24 October (Thursday): Game Changers - Dubai Real Estate Summit, Coca-Cola Arena, Dubai.

24 October (Thursday): Foreseeing Government Audit Future, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

24-27 October (Thursday-Sunday): International Sports Medicine Conference, Dubai.

26 October (Saturday): UFC 308: TOPURIA vs HOLLOWAY, Etihad Arena, Abu Dhabi.

26-27 October (Saturday-Sunday): International Conference on Tourism, Transport, and Logistics, Dubai.

27-30 October (Sunday-Wednesday): IEEE - International Conference on Image Processing, Adnec Centre, Abu Dhabi.

28-29 October (Monday-Tuesday): MENA Climate Proof Forum, Dubai.

29-31 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Sharjah International Conference in Biotechnology (SICBiotech), University of Sharjah.

29-31 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Healthcare Future Summit, Dubai World Trade Center.

29 October-2 November (Tuesday-Saturday): Abu Dhabi Early Childhood Week, Abu Dhabi.

30 October-1 November (Wednesday-Friday): World Cities Cultural Summit, Dubai.

30 October (Wednesday): Connected Construction Conference, Museum of the Future, Dubai.

30-31 October: Sixth edition of Binance Blockchain Week, Coca-Cola Arena, Dubai.

NOVEMBER

3-10 November (Sunday-Sunday): Dubai Premier Padel P1, Dubai Dutyfree Tennis Stadium, Dubai.

4-7 November (Monday-Thursday): Abu Dhabi International Petroleum Exhibition & Conference (ADIPEC), Abu Dhabi.

4-7 November (Monday-Thursday): ADIPEC Maritime and Logistics Exhibition and Conference, Abu Dhabi.

4-7 November (Monday-Thursday): ADIPEC Decarbonisation Accelerator, Abu Dhabi.

5-7 November (Tuesday-Thursday): 2024 EMEA Stakeholder Conference, Dubai.

6 November (Friday): World Finance Forum, Dubai.

6-8 November (Friday-Sunday): UAE BioTech Symposium, Masdar City, Abu Dhabi.

6-17 November (Friday- Sunday) Sharjah International Book Fair, Expo Center Sharjah, Sharjah.

10 November (Sunday): American Boarding School Fair 2024, Grosvenor Hotel, Dubai Marina, Dubai.

11 November (Monday): Dubai Diamond Conference, Jafza One Convention Centre, Dubai.

11-12 November (Monday-Tuesday): META Cinema Forum, Dubai.

13 November (Wednesday): Registration deadline for Dubai Chamber of Digital Economy’s App Olympics.

13-14 November (Wednesday-Thursday): Lease Conference Dubai 2024, Jumeirah Creekside Hotel, Dubai.

15 November (Friday): Tax amendments that exempt crypto and investments through fund managers from VAT to take effect.

18-19 November (Monday-Tuesday): Dubai Precious Metals Conference, JAFZA One Convention Center, Dubai

18-20 November (Monday-Wednesday): Fastmarkets Middle East Iron & Steel 2024, Dubai.

19-20 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Dubai Future Forum.

20-22 November (Wednesday-Friday): Xpanse Abu Dhabi, Adnec Centre, Abu Dhabi

22-23 November (Friday-Saturday): Global Meet on Electronics & Electrical Engineering (GMEEE), Dubai.

22-24 November (Friday-Sunday): Michelin Guide Food Festival, Emirates Palace Mandarin Oriental, Abu Dhabi.

23 November (Saturday): Wireless Festival Middle East, Etihad Park, Abu Dhabi.

23-24 November (Saturday-Sunday): Emirates Dubai Sail Grand Prix, SailGP Race Stadium.

26-27 November (Tuesday-Wednesday) Global Food Security Summit, Adnec Centre Abu Dhabi.

26-28 November (Tuesday-Thursday) Global Media Congress 2024, Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Centre (ADNEC).

26-29 November (Tuesday-Friday): Big 5 Global, Dubai World Trade Centre.

26-27 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Global Women’s Forum Dubai, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai

27-28 November (Wednesday-Thursday): RAK Energy Summit, Al Hamra International Exhibition and Conference Centre, Ras Al Khaimah.

28 November-1 December (Thursday-Sunday): Spartan World Championship, Al Wathba Desert, Abu Dhabi.

30 November (Saturday): Football Legends Cup, Al Maktoum Stadium Al Nasr Sports Club, Dubai.

Signposted to happen ahead of ADIPEC:

Changemakers Majlis, Abu Dhabi.

DECEMBER

2-3 December (Monday-Tuesday): National Day, public holiday.

4-5 December (Wednesday-Thursday): Sport Impact Summit, The Palm, Dubai.

5-8 December (Thursday-Sunday): Formula 1 Etihad Airways Abu Dhabi Grand Prix, Yas Marina Circuit.

8-12 December (Sunday-Thursday): International Desalination and Reuse Association World Congress, Adnec Centre Abu Dhabi.

9-10 December (Monday-Tuesday): The Bitcoin Mena Conference, Adnec Centre Abu Dhabi.

9-12 December (Monday-ThursdayTuesday): Abu Dhabi Finance Week, Abu Dhabi.

9-12 December (Monday-Thursday): World Conference on Desalination and Water Re-use 2024, Adnec Centre, Abu Dhabi.

9-12 December (Monday-Thursday): IEEE International Conference on Data Mining 2024, Adnec Centre, Abu Dhabi.

10-12 December (Tuesday-Thursday): Middle East Investor Relations Association (MEIRA Conference), Conrad Abu Dhabi Etihad Towers Hotel, Abu Dhabi.

10-12 December (Tuesday-Thursday): The Middle East and North Africa Business Aviation Association Show, Al Maktoum International Airport, Dubai.

11-13 December (Wednesday-Friday): European-Arab Medical Congress, Abu Dhabi.

14-21 December (Saturday-Saturday): World Schools Festival, Abu Dhabi

16-20 December (Monday-Friday): AIMS Conference 2024, Adnec Centre, Abu Dhabi.

6 December-12 January: Dubai Shopping Festival.

Signposted to happen sometime in December:

UAE-China Summit, Abu Dhabi.
Abu Dhabi Forum for Peace, Abu Dhabi.

JANUARY 2025

1 January (Wednesday): ADGM to slash licensing fees for retail and non-financial firms, and hike fees for finance firms.

9-13 January (Thursday-Monday): International Renewable Energy Agency Youth Forum, Abu Dhabi.

11-13 January (Saturday-Monday): International Renewable Energy Agency Assembly, Abu Dhabi.

14-16 January (Tuesday-Thursday): World Energy Summit, Abu Dhabi.

14-16 January (Tuesday- Thursday): The Light + Intelligent Building Middle East exhibition, Dubai.

19-24 January (Sunday-Friday): Coling 2025, Abu Dhabi.

20-22 January (Saturday-Monday): FESPA Middle East, Dubai World Trade Centre, Dubai.

FEBRUARY 2025

1-8 February (Saturday-Saturday): The Mubadala Abu Dhabi Open, Zayed Sports City's International Tennis Centre.

2-3 February (Sunday-Monday): L’Etape Dubai cycling race, Dubai.

3-6 February (Monday-Thursday): Medlab Middle East, Dubai World Trade Center.

16 February-1 March: Dubai Dutyfree Tennis Championships, Dubai Dutyfree Tennis Stadium in Al Garhoud.

24-25 February (Monday-Tuesday): World Passenger Experience Forum, Dubai.

24-26 February (Monday-Wednesday): Connecting Hydrogen MENA, Dubai.

Signposted to happen sometime in 1Q 2025:

The first eight fronds of the Palm Jebel Ali will be site-ready, allowing for the commencement of villa infrastructure and civil works.

APRIL 2025

6-11 April (Sunday-Friday): Geo-Spatial Week 2025, Dubai.

7-10 April 2025 (Monday-Thursday) : EFG Hermes One on One conference, Dubai.

7-9 April (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Investment Summit, Abu Dhabi National Exhibition Center

14-16 April (Monday-Wednesday): Dubai Woodshow’s 21st Edition, Dubai World Trade Center

14-16 April (Monday-Wednesday): IPS congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

16-18 April (Wednesday-Friday): World Future Energy Summit,Abu Dhabi National Exhibition, Abu Dhabi.

28 April-1 May (Monday-Thursday): The Arabian Travel Market 2025, Dubai World Trade Center

Signposted to happen sometime in April:

Abu Dhabi Autonomous Racing League, Yas Marina Circuit in Abu Dhabi

MAY 2025

6-7 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Global Ports Forum, Dubai.

26-28 May (Monday-Wednesday): Arab Media Summit, World Trade Center, Dubai.

OCTOBER 2025

27-29 October (Monday-Wednesday): Asia Pacific Cities Summit, Dubai Exhibition Center.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2025:

The Middle East Electric Vehicle Show, Expo Center Sharjah.
e& will complete Adnoc’s private 5G network.
Executive Committee Meeting (EXCOM 2025) conference of the World Smart Sustainable Cities Organisation (WeGO)
The International Civil Aviation Organization’s Global Implementation Support Symposium, Abu Dhabi.

Signposted to happen sometime in the fall of 2025:

2025 Games of the Future, Dubai.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2026:

The UAE to host the Arab Competition Forum
Dubai to host the Arab Actuarial Conference
United Nations Water Conference 2026, UAE

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