Looking north

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: An Emirati ChatGPT is in the works + more robotaxis are coming to Dubai

Good morning, everyone. Industrial interest in our Northern Emirates is our big story today, as we take a deep dive into why firms are looking to Sharjah and Umm Al Quwain and what it means for the sector. Our friends at Mashreq, along with Binghatti and Emirates NBD, are looking toward debt markets, and a raft of firms are offering up their earnings for inspection.

PLUS- The new age is firmly upon the UAE as ChatGPT looks to roll out an Emirati version, and Uber and Baidu plan to bring their robotaxis to Dubai. There’s also good news for sports firms, some new regulations from DIFC, and Masdar is making moves in Jordan.

WEATHER- It’s another hot but partly cloudy day in both Dubai and Abu Dhabi, with Dubai seeing a high of 29°C and an overnight low of 18°C, while the capital will see a high of 29°C and a cooler low of 15°C.

Watch this space

AI — State-owned AI firm G42 is partnering with OpenAI to build a UAE-tailored version of ChatGPT, Semafor reports, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. The proposed version is designed for government use, set to understand the Emirati Arabic dialect, and programmed to adhere to content guidelines. The standard version of ChatGPT will still be available in the UAE, but responses may be adjusted to reflect local culture and regulations.

REMEMBER- The UAE has long aimed to develop AI models fluent in Arabic and aligned with its cultural values. Initiatives like the Technology Innovation Institute’s Falcon and Mohamed bin Zayed University of AI’s Jais exemplify this approach, building smaller niche tools optimized for Arabic enterprise, government, or even student use, rather than trying to compete at the global LLM scale.

G42 and OpenAI are already working together on other UAE-based AI projects such as Stargate UAE, part of a wider 5 GW US-UAE data center complex in Abu Dhabi.

IN OTHER AI NEWS — MGX could back US-based AI startup Anthropic, with discussions underway for the state AI investor to plug hundreds of mns of USD into the startup as part of a wider USD 20 bn funding round, Bloomberg reports, citing people it says are familiar with the matter. The anticipated round is expected to double the startup’s valuation. An announcement is expected soon, though the investment size and structure are subject to change.

We have an idea who else may take part in the round: Private equity giant Blackstone is reportedly investing USD 200 mn in the startup, raising its stake to about USD 1 bn, as part of its ongoing funding round, Reuters reports, citing people it says are familiar with the move.

MGX has had its eyes on Anthropic for a while: MGX was in early talks with Anthropic when the startup’s CEO Dario Amodei toured the region late last year.

Data point

19.6 mn — that’s the total number of international visitors Dubai saw in 2025, a 5% y-o-y rise, according to the Dubai Economy and Tourism Department data picked up by the Dubai Media Office.

Where are they coming from? Visitors from the GCC and wider MENA region accounted for the largest share at 26%, or 5.2 mn visitors, followed by Western Europe at 21%, or 4.1 mn visitors. Tourists from the Commonwealth of Independent States and Eastern Europe, along with visitors from South Asia, were next up, each adding 2.9 mn visitors.

Growth in hospitality offerings was a key driver. The emirate’s inventory reached over 154k rooms across 827 hotels by the end of December, placing it neck and neck with London and significantly ahead of global peers like New York and Singapore.

PSA

The UAE is formalizing corporate tax exemptions for the sports sector: The Finance Ministry issued a cabinet decision establishing a formal corporate tax exemption framework for specific sports entities, state news agency Wam reports. The corporate tax is 9%.

Why it matters: The UAE is extending a carrot to both international and local sports governance by reducing the fiscal burden on non-commercial sporting bodies.

Dubai residents, you can start hailing driverless cars on Uber as of next month if you’re within the Jumeirah area, according to a statement. China’s Baidu is bringing Apollo Go to the platform, with expansions to other areas pending regulatory approvals and “operational learnings.”

REMEMBER- Autonomous driving has taken off across the UAE in recent months, with Abu Dhabi having already rolled out licensed Level 4 robotaxis on Yas Island in December and preparing to expand across core districts. WeRide received federal approval to operate its robotaxi services in October.

Dubai International Financial Center (DIFC) implemented its variable capital company (VCC) regulations, designed to expand options for investment structuring and asset management options for proprietary investment activity within the freezone, according to a press release.

BACKGROUND- DIFC issued a consultation paper last June for the new regulations, which are already in place in jurisdictions like Singapore and Malaysia.

The new rules: The regulation allows VCCs to be set up as standalone companies or as umbrella structures with incorporated or segregated sub-funds. Under the framework, share capital is aligned with net asset value, allowing the seamless issuance and redemption of shares and the movement of funds in and out without impacting the holding company or requiring shareholder approval. The structure also permits dividends to be paid out of capital as well as income, and it enables firms to hold separate asset and investment classes to cater to different risk profiles.

Who is expected to opt in? The structure is expected to attract family-owned businesses, multi-asset holdings, and proprietary investment portfolios. DIFC widened eligibility criteria after the consultation paper, allowing any entity to set up a VCC as long as it appoints a corporate service provider. However, DIFC-regulated entities, authorized companies, publicly-listed firms, and government entities are exempt from this requirement. VCCs won’t have to apply for DFSA authorization unless it carries out regulated financial activities.

Happening today

It’s day two of the US Chamber of Commerce’s AI Acceleration business delegation’s visit to the UAE. The delegation includes some 35 companies and 45 delegates, comprising a range of multinational “giants” as well as smaller SMEs and startups with unique propositions, US Chamber of Commerce’s VP of Middle East Affairs Steve Lutes has recently told EnterpriseAM UAE.

On the agenda: The talks are aimed at taking US-UAE AI ties to the next level, with a focus on AI applications and the diffusion of AI across both economies, Lutes said. The goal is to facilitate conversations and partnerships between AI-adopting companies — in sectors like healthcare, energy, and finance — and technology providers capable of driving greater efficiency and productivity across those industries, he added.

Also happening today:

It’s day three of the World Health Expo, which is running through Thursday, 12 February at the Dubai Exhibition Center;
The Family Office Summit takes place today at Park Hyatt Dubai, bringing together principals, CIOs, and advisors to focus on governance, succession planning, alternative investments, and portfolio resilience;
AIBC Eurasia wraps up today at Dubai Festival City. The event featured discussions on emerging sectors including blockchain, AI, fintech, loT, and big data;
The Forbes Middle East Top Advisors & Investors Summit also wraps up today at the Conrad Etihad Towers in Abu Dhabi.

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We’re hiring a technology reporter: EnterpriseAM is looking for a tech reporter to own the beat across Egypt, the UAE, Saudi Arabia and beyond.

This is a reporting job — not a desk job. You’ll be working sources, breaking stories, and writing about trendlines (not just headlines) in our voice and with the authority our readers expect. AI and digital infrastructure are huge features of the beat, but our interests are broad: fintech, telecoms, regulation, SaaS, and the bajillion ways tech is reshaping how businesses operate across the region.

We want someone who can pick up the phone or WhatsApp, get people talking, and turn what they say into stories that senior decision-makers need to read. We also expect you to attend industry events and maintain relationships with PR folks across the industry without selling out. If you’ve got 2-3 years of experience and the hunger to build a beat from the ground up, we want to hear from you. We’re also interested in hearing from veteran reporters. Spoken Arabic is strongly preferred.

The role is based in Cairo, though we’re open to remote for the right candidate. If you’re reading EnterpriseAM, you know what we’re about: A no-BS daily news outlet that tells busy execs, investors, founders, and ambitious people what they need to know about the trends shaping business, economy, finance, regulation, and public policy across our region. We write stories that have impact — about issues that matter — for a global audience of decisionmakers.

Do we sound like the type of place where you want work? Send your CV and three clips to jobs@enterpriseamea.com. Also enclose a great cover letter that tells us who you are, what you do, and why you’d be a great fit for this job.

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The big story abroad

Recent Wall Street gainers have one thing in common — they are not tech: Amid mounting fears over AI advancements superseding software firms, equities of formerly disfavored sectors have risen, namely supermarkets, energy companies, and manufacturers. Investors have poured USD 62 bn into funds focused on non-tech stocks in recent weeks, outgrossing the USD 50 bn they attracted in the whole of 2025.

Brokerages were not spared: Major US brokerages were also hit by the selloff — Charles Schwab, Morgan Stanley, and Raymond James saw shares sharply drop.

MEANWHILE- US retail figures lag, raise doubts over spending: US retail sales during the December holiday season remained flat, suggesting that consumers remain held back by high living costs and job market precariousness.

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Market watch

BMI seconds IEA’s glut scenario: The global crude market is entering a period of persistent oversupply as production from both Opec+ and non-Opec nations is outstripping demand, BMI analysts said in the Oil and Gas 2026 Themes webinar attended by EnterpriseAM. Opec+ is expected to hike average annual production by 2.1% later this year, while non-Opec players are set to add some 660k bbl / d.

Shifting demand: Global consumption is growing, but far slower than historical norms. This growth is focused primarily in emerging markets, as high-income economies face a structural deceleration driven by improved vehicle efficiency and fuel switching.

The price outlook: Brent is expected to average around USD 67 / bbl for 2026. While prices for refined fuels, including gasoline and jet fuel, are set to follow crude’s downward trajectory, natural gas remains the exception. US gas prices are projected to climb 7.7% as US LNG export capacity surges, contrasting with Europe, where stagnating demand is expected to keep regional gas prices low.

Circle your calendar

Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

Industrial sprawl heads north

It’s looking like the industrial shift toward the Northern Emirates was cemented further last year, as the supply crunch in Dubai and Abu Dhabi continues to worsen and other emirates grow their hospitality and manufacturing sectors, requiring more industrial and logistics space for support.

REMEMBER- The first half of last year saw displacement drive a 40% rise in local industrial rents in the Northern Emirates, rapidly eroding the cost advantage that initially attracted occupiers. A new report (pdf) by Knight Frank says that this trend remained the reality for much of the year.

Case in point: In core hubs like Al Quoz, the absence of available stock has pushed Grade A rents to a record AED 100 per sq ft. “Most central places in Dubai are operating at occupancy levels above 95%,” says Knight Frank’s Adam Wynne. Meanwhile, Abu Dhabi’s Kezad alone saw 97% occupancy, while Abu Dhabi Airport Freezone has the highest rents in the emirate at AED 625 per sqm, the report adds.

Who’s left behind? As higher-margin, tech-driven industries take over Dubai’s remaining industrial land, SMEs and manufacturers are being relocated north into Sharjah and Umm Al Quwain.

The shift has also triggered a sharp regional repricing. In Sharjah, industrial real estate transactions nearly doubled to AED 9.24 bn in 2025, as the emirate shifts from an overflow market to a primary industrial hub. The spillover has also been evident in Umm Al Quwain, where industrial rents have risen to AED 40 per sq ft from around AED 25.

The question: Is the shift north sustainable, or is it merely a temporary and circumstantial trend?

The shift toward Sharjah and Umm Al Quwain appears to be more of a “permanent change” than a “stopgap,” according to Wynne. “The Northern Emirates are no longer viewed as low-cost spillover markets — businesses are increasingly relocating there to support new hospitality and industrial developments,” he explained. This comes as over the past year, 10 industrial and logistics contracts were awarded in Ras Al Khaimah alone, with a total value of USD 547 mn, he said.

Infrastructure will support the shift: By 2026, the national rail network will be fully operational for freight, effectively turning the UAE into a single, continuous industrial corridor. “Over the next 14-18 months, we expect increased traction from the rail network as it becomes more widely utilized and continues to expand across the UAE,” Wynne noted.

As does the delivery outlook in Dubai: Of the 6.6 mn sq ft of industrial space scheduled for delivery in Dubai in 2026, the vast majority is Grade A — offering limited relief to mid-market manufacturers facing immediate space shortages.

But challenges remain

Across the Northern Emirates, peak power consumption has surged, creating a widening gap between supply and demand. For high-intensity users — like cold storage or heavy manufacturers — rent savings in the North can quickly be erased by the cost of diesel generators or the long lead times for a utility connection. “While identifying properties with sufficient power capacity, without the need for upgrades, can be challenging, it is not impossible. In most cases, companies are not having to rely on private generators, but limited grid capacity does mean power availability is increasingly shaping location decisions in the Northern Emirates,” Wynne tells us.

Our take

The UAE is transitioning to a hub-and-spoke industrial model. Dubai and Abu Dhabi are maturing into a high-end logistics and distribution center increasingly dominated by technology-driven, higher-margin operators. By contrast, the Northern Emirates are emerging as the country’s new engine room for bulk goods, storage, and manufacturing.

And it changed the game for operators: For operators, relocation only makes financial sense if productivity gains from rail connectivity outweigh rising rental baselines and persistent delays in utility connections. Looking ahead, while Dubai will continue to attract premium Grade A facilities, the bulk movement of goods and manufacturing activity is expected to increasingly take place in the Northern Emirates.

And they’re not a cheap exit anymore — they will now price in the same scarcity premium seen in Dubai and Abu Dhabi. Institutional investors have already priced in a permanent industrial bottleneck, compressing net yields to around 8% — a clear signal that elevated rents are becoming the new baseline.

The story is about more than just costs though: “While prices have increased in more central locations, some occupiers are willing to absorb year-on-year rental growth if the location delivers time savings and operational efficiencies. In these cases, decisions are often made more holistically rather than based solely on rental cost,” Wynne tells us.

Still, other more affordable alternatives are gaining interest, namely Ras Al Khaimah, especially as “hospitality assets approach handover and the supporting ecosystem continues to develop,” Wynne added.

The outlook is relatively rosy

Despite high demand and occupancy rates, near-term rental conditions across the Northern Emirates are expected to soften as more supply comes to market, Knight Frank says.

Binghatti taps debt markets for USD 500 mn as it shelves IPO plan

Binghatti priced a USD 500 mn, five-year senior unsecured sukuk issuance at 8.375% (or 461 bps over US Treasuries), AGBI reports, citing a company statement. The offering was 4.4x oversubscribed, drawing a USD 2.5 bn orderbook, with foreign investors making up half of it. The notes will be listed on LSE and Nasdaq Dubai.

This marks the firm’s third major outing in the debt markets in less than a year and comes as the developer looks to move beyond individual towers into master-planned communities, with proceeds earmarked to support its growth strategy and expand its development pipeline, the developer said. Plans for the developer range from a AED 30 bn Mercedes-Benz-branded city to a AED 25 bn development in Nad Al Sheba.

No more IPO: CEO Muhammad BinGhatti has also recently confirmed the firm has hit pause on its IPO plans. By opting for the sukuk market, Binghatti is taking advantage of its strengthened balance sheet, where net income rose 95.6% y-o-y to AED 3.6 bn last year.

IN CONTEXT- Dubai is bracing for 91k residential units to be handed over in 2026. While firms like Fitch have warned of price corrections up to 15% due to this supply surge, Binghatti is doubling down on branded luxury to maintain a price premium.

ADVISORS- Our friends at Mashreq are quarterbacking the sale alongside Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, Abu Dhabi Islamic Bank, Dubai Islamic Bank, Emirates NBD Capital, and JPMorgan as joint global coordinators.

Mashreq plots USD 500 AT1 raise

Our friends at Mashreq are shoring up the bank’s capital base with a USD 500 mn AT1 offering, Zawya reports. The bank tapped a 10-bank syndicate to arrange the perpetual, non-call, no-grow, 5.5-year capital offering. This follows a massive USD 2 bn syndicated loan in December.

ADVISORS- Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank, ANZ, Bank of America, Barclays, Citigroup, Emirates NBD Capital, First Abu Dhabi Bank, Mashreq, Mizuho, and MUFG are advising on the offering.

MEANWHILE- Emirates NBD is back in the green debt markets, this time tapping European liquidity. The lender opened books yesterday for a benchmark-sized, five-year, EUR-denominated green bond to fund green projects, Zawya reports. Emirates NBD is currently locking in final pricing, with settlement slated for 13 February and listings planned on Euronext Dublin and Nasdaq Dubai. The Reg S-compliant notes are being marketed at mid-swaps plus 100-105 bps under the bank’s USD 20 bn EMTN program, with expected ratings of A1/A+.

Striking while the EGS bid is hot: Coming just one month after the bank’s landmark USD 1 bn blue-green issuance, the move signals a high-velocity strategy to front-load its 2026 funding requirements while the window for ESG-linked paper remains wide open.

More earnings flood in

Dewa posts AED 9.1 bn in net income for 2025

Dewa continues to see earnings growth amid more population growth and demand: Dubai Electricity and Water Authority (Dewa) posted 4Q net income of AED 2.3 bn, up 28.4% y-o-y, and revenue of AED 7.9 bn, a 6.5% y-o-y increase, according to its earnings release (pdf). For the full year, net income climbed 25.7% to AED 9.1 bn as revenue rose 6% to AED 32.8 bn, marking the highest annual results in the company’s history. The utility attributed the results to stronger demand for electricity, water, and cooling services, as well as expansion of its customer base, which rose 4.5% to over 1.3 mn accounts, according to its preliminary financials (pdf).

Dividends: The board approved a dividend of AED 3.1 bn (equivalent to 6.2 fils per share) for 2H 2025, to be distributed in April, according to a disclosure (pdf). The payout is subject to shareholder approval.

Salik’s revenue climbs 35.1% amid flexible pricing

Dubai’s toll gate operator Salik posted a 33.4% y-o-y jump in its net income to AED 1.5 bn in 2025, while revenues rose by 35.1% y-o-y to AED 3.1 bn, according to its preliminary financials (pdf). The growth was driven by the implementation of dynamic pricing in January 2025, the operation of two new toll gates, and an increase in vehicle registrations and traffic rates.

Revenue generated from the operator’s parking payment solutions also contributed to overall growth, alongside a reduction in concession fees from 25% to 22.5% in agreement with the Roads and Traffic Authority. Despite reporting a strong balance sheet, total assets saw a slight 1.4% y-o-y dip to AED 7.8 bn.

Empower records AED 3.4 bn for FY 2025 revenues

Emirates Central Cooling Systems — also known as Empower — posted a net income of AED 1 bn, up 10.5% y-o-y, in 2025, according to its earnings release (pdf). Revenues rose to AED 3.4 bn, marking a 4.9% increase y-o-y amid an expansion in business activity, with 110 new buildings added to its portfolio and a 26% y-o-y surge in new service registrations.

This helped hike up total connected capacity to 1.7 mn refrigeration tons (RT), up 7% y-o-y, while contracted capacity is up to 2 mn RT.

Dividends: The group distributed a shareholder dividend of AED 875 mn, split into two equal payments of AED 437.5 mn, or 4.375 fils per share, equivalent to 44% of the company’s paid-up share for 2H 2025, according to a DFM disclosure (pdf).

Emsteel posts AED 480.9 mn in net income led by steel sales volumes

Emsteel closes good year on higher sales, strong steel division growth: Emsteel Building Materials reported EBITDA of AED 372 mn in 4Q 2025, a 51% y-o-y increase, according to its earnings release (pdf) and preliminary financials (pdf). The firm’s top line held largely flat at AED 2.5 bn, with improved margins cited as boosting bottom line results.

For 2025, net income rose 22.6% y-o-y to AED 480.9 mn, while revenues were up 7.2% y-o-y to AED 8.9 bn. The strong 4Q performance along with higher sales volumes and better operational efficiency were cited as driving results. Its steel division brought in the lion’s share of revenues with AED 8 bn, up 6% y-o-y, as sales volumes grew 16% y-o-y. Its cement segment saw a 24% yearly revenue uptick.

Burjeel Holdings records AED 503 mn in net income for FY 2025

Burjeel Holdings saw its 4Q 2025 net income rise 159.9% y-o-y to AED 141 mn, supported by operating leverage, tighter cost control, and higher patient volumes, according to its preliminary financials (pdf). Revenues for the quarter increased 7.5% to AED 1.4 bn, supported by an 11.5% rise in outpatient footfall and 9.8% increase in inpatient visits.

For the full year, net income rose 39.5% y-o-y to AED 503 mn, while revenues climbed 9.8% to AED 5.5 bn. A slowdown in non-operating costs, an uptick in operating leverage, and disciplined cost and operational management drove the results. Inpatient volume growth was driven by its oncology, cardiology, orthopedics, and women’s health services, while expanded IVF and physiotherapy services bolstered outpatient numbers.

CBD posts net income of AED 3.5 bn for 2025

Net loans of AED 100 bn boosted Commercial Bank of Dubai’s (CBD) results last year, with the lender reporting record quarterly net income of AED 1 bn for 4Q, according to its integrated report (pdf). Over the year, net income reached AED 3.5 bn, up 15.5% y-o-y, as total operating income increased 7.8% to AED 5.9 bn.

Behind the results: An uptick in net interest income helped offset a slight dip in income from Islamic financing, driving overall interest income up 9.3% y-o-y to AED 4.2 bn. Alongside loan growth, the bank attributed the performance to stronger fee generation and an expansion in current and savings account balances.

Dividends: The board proposed a dividend of AED 58.6 fils per share, up 15.5% y-o-y and representing 50% of net income.

Alpha Dhabi sees a net income of AED 15 bn for FY 2025

Expansion and M&A boosted Alpha Dhabi Holding’s core earnings from verticals this year, with the firm posting net income of AED 15 bn, up 11.2% y-o-y, according to its financials (pdf). Group revenue rose 24.3% to AED 78.8 bn, driven by higher revenue across its verticals — led by industrial, real estate, construction, and services — alongside the impact of acquisitions and portfolio expansion, according to its management discussion and analysis report (pdf).

On shareholder returns, Alpha Dhabi introduced a three-year dividend framework — effective 2026 — with a yearly payout of AED 2 bn (20 fils per share). The distributed amount will rise 5% annually.

Janus Henderson taps Naveen Kumar to drive ME intermediary business

Janus Henderson appoints new hire to lead Middle East intermediary business: Global asset management firm Janus Henderson tapped Naveen Kumar (LinkedIn) as senior associate director, according to a press release. Based in Dubai, Kumar will focus on expanding the asset manager’s intermediary partner relations in the Middle East, with a primary focus on regional banks, issuers, and distribution partners.

Kumar brings over 22 years of experience in financial services, including, most recently, a 15-year tenure at global investment management firm Franklin Templeton. He also held senior roles at HSBC Asset Management, Karvy Stock Broking, and ICICI Bank.

Tadweer names new CEO: Abu Dhabi-based waste management firm Tadweer Group named Etienne Petit (LinkedIn) as its new CEO, according to a press release and separate post on LinkedIn. Petit will oversee the delivery of key projects and operations for the firm, which has recently expanded to Australia.

Petit joins the firm with over 30 years of experience in the waste treatment sector, including a 26-year tenure at French transnational waste management firm Veolia, where he held senior roles in its overseas operations. He also held a position at industrial and financial firm Compagnie Chargeurs Invest.

Ajman Bank names new CTO: Ajman Bank named Joseph George (LinkedIn) as its new chief technology officer, according to a press release. George will lead on AI integration and digital transformation at the lender, with a focus on cybersecurity frameworks.

George brings over 25 years of regional expertise in digital banking and operational transformation. He previously held several senior leadership roles, including at Doha Bank, National Bank of Fujairah, and Commercial Bank of Dubai.

Masdar to develop wind power plant in Jordan, Smart Bricks raises USD 5 mn

Masdar to develop a wind energy plant in Jordan

Masdar expands wind power portfolio in Jordan: State-backed renewables giant Masdar inked an agreement with Jordan’s Energy and Mineral Resources Ministry to develop a 25 MW wind power plant in Batn Al Ghul, according to a statement. Funding to build the five wind turbines will come from the UAE, and output will go toward domestic markets.

Who’s involved? Masdar, whose portfolio already includes two renewable project s in Jordan, will provide technical, logistics, and implementation expertise, with Jordan’s state-owned Al Samra Power Generation Co. managing the project’s engineering, procurement, and construction through a Masdar-chosen contractor. Al Samra will operate the plant and can also bring in Masdar subsidiaries for support.

ICYMI- Masdar has recently inked an agreement with German energy firm RWE to jointly invest in battery energy storage systems (BESS) in Germany and reached financial close on Oman’s first utility-scale project to pair solar with battery storage.

Smart Bricks pulls in USD 5 mn from a pre-seed round

Dubai-based AI startup Smart Bricks secured USD 5 mn in pre-seed funding led by American venture capital firm Andreessen Horowitz, with additional backing from funds and angel investors from the Middle East, the US, and Europe, according to a press release.

Smart Bricks? Founded in 2024 by Mohamed Mohamed (LinkedIn), the startup is developing autonomous AI systems that aim to let investors source, assess, and complete real estate transactions in minutes rather than months. It has previously raised money from venture capital firms such as Techstars, 500 Global, and Cornerstone VC.

China tells its banks to rein in holdings of US Treasuries

It may sound like a geopolitical warning shot, but China’s latest directive to curb US debt holdings is better read as a risk-management exercise. Officials in Beijing have recently issued a verbal directive to major banks to limit purchases of US government bonds and trim existing holdings to reduce concentration risk, Bloomberg reports. While the headlines echo past trade-war fears of coordinated “dump the USD,” insiders and economists say the move reflects balance-sheet housekeeping rather than geopolitical escalation.

This is likely a cleanup operation, not a strategic exit, Council on Foreign Relations Senior Fellow Brad Setser told Axios. Over the past two months, Chinese exporters sold roughly USD 100 bn per month to state-owned banks, which in turn parked much of that inflow in US Treasuries, creating a lopsided risk profile that Chinese regulators are now seeking to rebalance, Setser noted.

The move was framed around diversification rather than concerns over US creditworthiness, helping explain the muted market reaction. Treasury yields ticked slightly higher, but volatility measures are setting near five-year lows, signaling limited investor alarm.

While commercial banks clean up their books, longer-term data point to a broader shift in who holds America’s debt. China’s official Treasury holdings have fallen to USD 683 bn — their lowest level since 2008 — dropping the country to third place behind Japan and the UK.

But analysts say that this does not amount to a full retreat. Holdings in custodial accounts in Belgium — often seen as a proxy for Chinese holdings — have quadrupled since 2017 to USD 481 bn. At the same time, total foreign holdings of US treasuries climbed to a record USD 9.4 bn in November, underscoring continued global demand for USD assets.

The diplomatic backdrop reinforces the view that the financial directive is not a signal of escalating hostilities. US Treasury staff were in China last week to strengthen communication channels ahead of a planned meeting between US Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent and Chinese Vice Premier He Lifeng, Reuters reports. Those talks are setting the stage for a potential summit between Donald Trump and Xi Jinping in Beijing as early as April.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Markets this morning are reacting to US retail sales figures, which came in lower than expected. Meanwhile, Asia-Pacific markets appear to be nearing the end of their almost-weeklong rally triggered by Japan’s election, posting softer gains in early trading this morning. The Nikkei is closed today as Japan celebrates National Foundation Day.

ADX	10,651	+0.2% (YTD: +6.6%)
DFM	6,772	0.0% (YTD: +12.0%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	5,535	+0.4% (YTD: +13.2%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	3.4% o/n	3.6% 1 yr
TASI	11,214	+0.2% (YTD: +6.9%)
EGX30	50,376	+0.2% (YTD: +20.4%)
S&P 500	6,942	-0.3% (YTD: +1.4%)
FTSE 100	10,354	-0.3% (YTD: +4.3%)
Euro Stoxx 50	6,047	-0.2% (YTD: +4.4%)
Brent crude	USD 69.08	+0.1%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.15	+0.3%
Gold	USD 5,045	-0.7%
BTC	USD 68,641	-2.5% (YTD: -21.7%)
Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	AED 3.79	+1.3% (YTD: +1.1%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	152.1	+0.1% (YTD: +0.1%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	17.79	+2.5% (YTD: +19.5%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The ADX rose 0.2% yesterday on turnover of AED 1.6 bn. The index is up 6.6% YTD.

In the green: Americana Restaurants International (+7.5%), E7 Group PJSC Warrants (+7.0%), and National Corporation for Tourism & Hotels (+6.3%).

In the red: Hayah Ins. Company (-3.6%), United Arab Bank (-2.1%), and Sharjah Islamic Bank (-2.1%).

Over on the DFM, the index held flat on turnover of AED 1.2 bn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was up 0.4%.

CALENDAR

FEBRUARY

Signposted to happen sometime this month: Investopia, Lagos, Nigeria.

9-11 February (Monday-Wednesday): AIBC Eurasia, Dubai Festival City, Dubai.

9-12 February (Monday-Friday): World Health Expo (WHX), Dubai.

10-11 February (Tuesday-Wednesday): Forbes Middle East Top Advisors & Investors Summit, Conrad Etihad Towers, Abu Dhabi.

11 February (Wednesday): Family Office Summit, Park Hyatt Dubai, Dubai.

11-13 February (Wednesday-Friday): MedTech World Middle East, Dubai.

12-15 February (Thursday-Sunday): The Society for Incentive Travel Excellence Global Conference, Abu Dhabi.

10-11 February (Tuesday-Wednesday): Top Advisors and Investors Summit, Abu Dhabi.

MARCH

31 March – 2 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Arab Media Summit, Dubai.

26-28 March (Thursday-Saturday): Social Capital Conference, Dubai.

28-29 March (Saturday-Sunday): Emirates International Congress on AI & Visionary Leadership in Transforming Healthcare, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

30 March – 2 April (Monday-Thursday): IAAPA Middle East Exhibition and Conference, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

APRIL

7-9 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Health Summit, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

13-15 April (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

13-15 April (Monday-Wednesday): The International Glass Manufacturing Show, Dubai.

14-16 April: (Tuesday-Thursday): the International Property Show, Sheikh Zayed Rd, Dubai.

21-23 April (Tuesday-Thursday): UITP Public Transport Summit, Dubai.

MAY

11-15 May (Monday-Friday): Dubai Future Finance Week, Dubai.

11-13 May (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center.

12-14 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Airport Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

19-20 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Capital Market Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

19-22 May (Tuesday-Friday): Abu Dhabi Water and Energy Week, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

JUNE

3-4 June (Wednesday-Thursday): Annual MENA Investor Conference, Ritz-Carlton DIFC, Dubai.

15 June – 15 September (Monday-Thursday): Dubai Mallathon, Dubai.

JULY

31 July (Friday): Large businesses achieving annual revenues equal to or above AED 50 mn must appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

NOVEMBER

9-10 November (Monday-Tuesday): Annual government meetings, Abu Dhabi.

OCTOBER

4-10 October (Sunday-Saturday): World Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

DECEMBER

2-4 December (Wednesday-Friday): UN Water Conference, UAE.

Signposted to happen in 2026:

The UAE to host the Arab Competition Forum;
Investopia Global Talks, Tashkent.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1 January: Deadline for large businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project;

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): World Governments Summit.
31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing;
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai;
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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