Linking up on energy and minerals

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Pax Silica in action + Another Indian acquisition from Emirates NBD?

earnings

Good morning, everyone. We’re starting the week with a somewhat quiet issue, but the stories we have for you are making a splash. Germany has tapped the UAE as part of its energy diversification drive, the US and the UAE have unveiled another part of their critical mineral collaboration plan, and Aldar and Dubai Holding are adding AED 38 bn to Dubai’s real estate scene.

Plus: Emirates NBD is reportedly making a play for another bank takeover in India, and the newly-consolidated 2PointZero Group has reported the fruits of its labor — AED 3.6 bn to be exact.

WEATHER- The hot weather continues in Dubai and Abu Dhabi this week, with today seeing a high of 27°C in Dubai and 28°C in Abu Dhabi. Dubai will see an overnight low of 19°C, while the capital will see a low of 18°C.

Watch this space

M&A WATCH — Emirates NBD makes its second M&A play for an Indian bank: Emirates NBD is among international suitors who submitted bids to acquire a stake in India’s state-owned Industrial Development Bank of India (IDBI), a transaction expected to close next month, Reuters reports, citing sources it says are in the know.

Who else is vying for IDBI? The Dubai-based lender is reportedly competing against Canada’s Fairfax for 60.7% of IDBI — estimated to be worth over USD 7.5 bn. Reuters also name-checked Kotak Mahindra Bank as a potential bidder, but the bank denied the claim. IDBI Bank’s market cap sits at USD 12.6 bn, with its share price climbing 26% over the past year in anticipation of the sale, which was first announced in 2022.

This has been a long time coming: Emirates NBD was previously said to be eyeing the bank in 2024 and was among those shortlisted for the sale in August.

Our take? Emirates NBD’s twin bids for IDBI and RBL signal a multi-bn USD push into India that we think could eventually tilt toward consolidation. The bid suggests Emirates NBD’s push into India remains intact despite the regulatory hurdles it’s navigating. The DFM-listed lender’s USD 3 bn attempt to take over RBL Bank hit a snag last week, triggering change-of-control reviews.

India laid the groundwork for this divestment: IDBI was reclassified as a private-sector bank in 2019, bringing it under the 74% foreign ownership cap and allowing Emirates NBD to pursue a 60% stake. In addition, IDBI already has a footprint in Dubai through its DIFC-based corporate branch, which is regulated by the DFSA — a factor that could also help streamline the fit-and-proper due diligence for Emirates NBD.

CRITICAL MINERALS — The UAE and the US are moving to institutionalize how capital flows into critical minerals, signing a framework covering extraction to downstream manufacturing, Wam reports. The agreement came on the sidelines of the Critical Minerals Ministerial in Washington.

The framework sets out a route for the two governments to expedite securing critical mineral supplies. It involves coordinating policy support and mobilizing public and private funding across mining, separation, processing, recycling, and advanced downstream industrial uses.

The timeline: Both sides will work to identify priority projects that close supply chain gaps and begin backing financing for the targeted projects within six months. In addition to financing, support will be offered via capital investments, ins., and regulatory facilitation. End production will target US and Emirati buyers.

The framework is a more concrete manifestation of Pax Silica, a US-led coalition, which the UAE joined in January, that aims to secure supply chains necessary for the AI sector. The continued alignment with the US in the critical mineral sphere has paid off so far, helping state AI firm G42 secure exports of 35k Nvidia Blackwell chips, which are vital for AI projects like the planned 5 GW UAE-US AI campus in Abu Dhabi.

TRANSPORT — Abu Dhabi greenlit its 2028 launch timeline for a high-speed seaglider network, signing an agreement with operator Versa, the Abu Dhabi Investment Office, and the Culture and Tourism Department, according to a statement. The electric wing-in-ground craft will initially link the capital to Al Dhafra before expanding to other routes across the UAE.

In other transport news: Abu Dhabi Mobility is expanding its robotaxi service to Khalifa City, Masdar City, and Rabdan. Operated via a partnership between WeRide, Uber, and Tawasul Transport, the service has moved beyond its initial testing grounds on Yas and Saadiyat islands into high-density residential and commercial hubs. The expansion introduces new routes connecting the Abu Dhabi Corniche to the Sheikh Zayed Grand Mosque.

BUSINESS — Saudi-UAE tensions begin to be felt in some circles: Several UAE companies pulled out of Saudi Arabia’s World Defense Show, Reuters reports, citing sources it says are in the know. The move comes amid growing friction over Yemen and regional security priorities.

Not a one-off: As we previously reported, some UAE firms say they are increasingly being forced to choose sides, citing difficulties securing Saudi business visas and pressure tied to Riyadh’s RHQ rules. Still, analysts remain cautiously optimistic, pointing to Saudi signals of de-escalation and the fact that Emirati institutions continue underwriting Saudi debt.

Elsewhere, diplomatic strain is playing out more formally: Algeria began procedures to cancel its 2013 air services agreement with the UAE, Reuters reports, citing state media. No official reason was given for the move. The General Civil Aviation Authority clarified that this decision will not result in any immediate impact on air traffic operations and that the agreement between both countries will remain in force during the legally mandated notice period.

TECH — G42 and partners are building data centers in Vietnam for USD 1 bn: A consortium led by state-owned AI firm G42 is investing up to USD 1 bn to build three data centers in Vietnam, according to a statement. The consortium — which includes technology and telecom player FPT and Viet Thai Group — will also roll out cloud computing services in the Southeast Asian country. Details regarding the timeline and computing capacity were not disclosed.

G42 is honing its pitch for data centers: Earlier this year, G42 rolled out its Digital Embassies framework and Greenshield, which allow nations to scale AI capabilities securely while retaining legal authority over their data and systems.

Happening today

The World Health Expo kicks off today and runs through Thursday, 12 February at the Dubai Exhibition Center. The event brings together industry leaders to showcase the latest healthcare advancements, including technology and research solutions to improve the global healthcare sector.

AIBC Eurasia is also underway, running from today through Wednesday at Dubai Festival City, with a focus on emerging sectors including blockchain, AI, fintech, loT, and big data.

Happening tomorrow

The AVCJ Private Equity Forum takes place tomorrow at the Four Seasons Hotel in Abu Dhabi. The investment summit will include discussion and networking sessions for international and regional fund managers as well as private equity players, focusing on core trends in the industry.

Also taking place this week:

The Forbes Middle East Top Advisors & Investors Summit takes place tomorrow and Wednesday at the Conrad Etihad Towers in Abu Dhabi;
The Family Office Summit will take place Wednesday, 11 February at Park Hyatt Dubai, bringing together principals, CIOs, and advisors to focus on governance, succession planning, alternative investments, and portfolio resilience.

The big story abroad

Global headlines are focused on Asian markets’ broad rally, riding the wave of incumbent Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi’s landslide victory in snap elections yesterday. In anticipation of Takaichi’s reflationary agenda — more spending and tax cuts — markets responded bullishly, sending Japan’s Nikkei climbing 4.2% to an all-time high.

Gold rebounded on the news: Partially boosted by Takaichi’s victory, gold rose above USD 5k per ounce, jumping as much as 1.7% in early trading, recovering half of the losses it sustained since dropping from a historic high late last month. Helping the recovery is also promising backing from the likes of Deutsche Bank, Goldman Sachs, and the Chinese central bank.

The Super Bowl LX is still underway, with the Seattle Seahawks leading the game at 29 points, while the New England Patriots behind at only seven points, as we press send. The Seahawks are seeking their second ever title, while the Patriots are fighting for the seventh title.

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UAE and Germany hard-wire energy cooperation

German Chancellor Friedrich Merz’s visit to Abu Dhabi ended with a slate of MoUs covering energy security, clean power, and industrial supply chains. The visit comes as Germany reportedly looks to diversify its energy supply options. Here’s what was covered:

LNG and energy security

Gas anchored the talks: Abu Dhabi National Oil Company (Adnoc) and Germany’s utility RWE agreed to explore providing an LNG supply of up to 1 mtpa for as long as 10 years for Germany and wider European markets. The framework also covers LNG trading and Germany’s regasification capacity.

The agreement builds on existing LNG links: Adnoc already has 1.6 mtpa of LNG from its Ruwais project earmarked for German buyers and is supplying a further 0.7 mtpa from legacy facilities until Ruwais comes online. As we’ve previously reported, Adnoc’s Germany LNG track record includes:

A 15-year 0.6 mtpa LNG agreement with Energie Baden-Württemberg;
A 1 mtpa sales and purchase agreement with SEFE for Ruwais LNG and another with SEFE for LNG from Adnoc’s Das Island facility;
A Joint Declaration of Intent on Sustainable Energy Cooperation signed in 2024.

IN CONTEXT- Germany is diversifying its LNG portfolio to reduce over-reliance on a single supplier and to shield itself from tariff weaponization by the US, which currently accounts for around 96% of LNG flowing through German terminals, Reuters reports.

Batteries before MW

Clean energy cooperation: Abu Dhabi renewables group Masdar and German energy firm RWE signed an MoU to jointly invest in battery energy storage systems (BESS) in Germany, targeting up to 1 GW by 2035. The tie-up includes an option for Masdar to invest in RWE’s already existing projects by 2030.

The focus is on grid stability — firming intermittent renewables as power demand from industry and data centers rises.

Masdar and RWE are long-time partners: The two are co-owners and operators of the 630 MW London Array offshore wind farm and joint developers of the 3 GW Dogger Bank South project in the UK under a GBP 11 bn investment. Masdar also closed on a 49% stake in RWE’s German 476 MW Baltic Eagle wind farm in 2024.

Industry and materials: Ammonia enters the mix

Industry followed energy: Covestro, a German maker of high-performance polymers, the UAE-based and Adnoc-backed urea and ammonia producer Fertiglobe, and Adnoc and ADQ’s JV Ta’ziz signed an MoU to explore cooperation in ammonia and sustainable materials, Wam reports.

The timing matters: Adnoc’s international investment arm XRG completed a EUR 14.7 bn takeover of Covestro last year, with this latest MoU pointing to a tighter bilateral link across industry and low-carbon materials.

On a lighter note

Beyond energy and industry, the two sides also exchanged an MoU between the UAE Pro League and the German football league, the Bundesliga, a smaller but symbolic step toward expanding cooperation into institutional and people-to-people channels.

Why it matters

The visit signals a targeted effort to lock in near-term LNG flexibility, scale grid storage, and link German industry to lower-carbon materials. It positions the UAE as a practical partner as Germany rewires its energy and supply-chain architecture.

Aldar unveils AED 38 bn expansion with 14k new homes

Aldar, Dubai Holding expand JV with AED 38 bn in new developments: Abu Dhabi-based developer Aldar and Dubai Holding added two land plots to their Dubai portfolio, with a total value of AED 38 bn, according to an ADX disclosure (pdf). The two have been partners since 2023, with the tie-up bringing in AED 21.5 bn worth of sales to date.

More details: The expansion comes as part of their JV, and will add 14k homes to their portfolio. Aldar will manage the end-to-end development cycle — from design and sales to construction and management — bringing its total Dubai development pipeline to over 2.3 mn sqm.

The locations: The first new project is a 4 mn sqm community located opposite Nad Al Sheba — featuring a mix of villas, townhouses, and apartments — slated for launch in 2026. The second project, scheduled for 2027, will be an ultra-luxury waterfront development on Palm Jebel Ali spanning 250k sqm.

IN CONTEXT- This development follows Aldar’s recent move to expand its land bank portfolio to the tune of AED 23 bn in a JV in Abu Dhabi with an established partner, without specifying who it was. The new plots will be located on Abu Dhabi’s Saadiyat Island, as well as on and next to Yas Island.

The playing field in Dubai: The Aldar-Dubai Holding real estate expansion will bring online much-needed supply for Dubai’s real estate scene, after only 59% of projects were delivered on time last year. Capital values are also slated to increase further this year, as occupancy remains high, with villas in particular accounting for only 36% of the incoming pipeline.

2PointZero Group, Americana turn in 2025 earnings

2PointZero’s first post-merger earnings

2PointZero Group’s net income jumped to AED 3.6 bn in FY 2025, up from AED 189 mn the year before — reflecting just one month of consolidation following the mega-merger with Multiply Group and Ghitha Holding — according to its financials (pdf) and earnings release. Revenues rose 311.2% y-o-y to AED 7.0 bn during the year.

IN CONTEXT- The Multiply-Ghitha-2PointZero merger created a newly listed investment platform focused on energy and consumer sectors. As we’ve reported, the group now operates under a new board chaired by Sheikh Zayed bin Hamdan bin Zayed Al Nahyan.

What drove performance: Earnings were lifted by a one-off AED 2.7 bn gain from Multiply’s Pal Cooling sale, partly offset by an AED 800 mn impairment tied to the Kalyon Enerji joint venture.

Earnings from operating businesses rose 158% y-o-y, supported by consolidation effects and broad-based growth across core platforms, while total assets reached AED 133.7 bn at year-end.

Looking ahead: Management said it remains focused on integration, portfolio optimization, and capital redeployment, with a broader earnings base expected in FY 2026 once a full year of consolidation is captured. As previously guided, 2PointZero is targeting a 35% increase in 2026 net income (excluding fair-value movements) and plans to propose a dividend policy starting in 2027.

Americana Restaurants posts USD 219.1 mn net income

Americana Restaurants International reported net income attributable to the

shareholders of USD 219.1 mn for FY 2025, up from USD 158.8 mn in 2024, according to its financials (pdf). Revenues saw a 14.2% y-o-y increase, reaching USD 2.5 bn. The company said top-line growth was supported by a 9.7% improvement in like-for-like sales, driven by continued menu improvement, brand collaborations, and operations across key markets, according to a separate earnings release (pdf).

The group added 159 net restaurants during the year to reach a total of 2.7k locations across 12 markets.

Dividends: The board will consider a dividend payout of USD 201.6 mn, equivalent to USD 0.024 per share, subject to shareholder approval at the annual general meeting.

The Egypt Education Platform is building a university in Noor City

Egyptian real estate developer Talaat Moustafa Group (TMG) signed an agreement with the Egypt Education Platform (EEP) to establish a private university in its Noor City project in East Cairo, according to a joint press release (pdf) and another disclosure (pdf) from TMG. The total investment for the university is estimated at EGP 8 bn, and the project marks EEP’s first venture into higher education.

The details: TMG is providing a 216k sqm land plot for the institution in return for an equity stake in the project and a long-term share of its recurring revenue. Phase one is slated to launch by 2029.

That’s not all: EEP will manage two new Noor City schools and handle operations under a management agreement, while TMG is providing the land and capital for construction.

ADVISORS: Our friends at EFG Hermes acted as the sole financial advisor for the partnership.

Trump-era crypto optimism unwinds

Retail crypto traders were back on uneasy ground last week after a sharp sell-off briefly dragged BTC below its post-election levels, reigniting fears of a fresh “crypto winter,” Bloomberg reports. BTC sank 13% in a single session last Thursday to around USD 60k — its steepest daily drop since the 2022 FTX collapse — before clawing back above USD 70k a day later. Even with the rebound, the cryptocurrency still ended the week down roughly 30%, unsettling investors who had assumed political backing and Wall Street adoption had made the market more resilient.

The immediate trigger was US President Donald Trump’s nomination of Kevin Warsh as the next Federal Reserve chair, a move that cooled demand for risk-sensitive assets, including BTC and precious metals, Reuters argued. But analysts say the downturn was already in motion. “This contraction has been underway for several months and remains ongoing,” Kaiko research analyst Thomas Probst said, warning that thinning liquidity is making price swings sharper and more erratic.

The reversal marks a clear break from the Trump-fueled optimism that once pushed BTC past USD 125k, driven by expectations of a more crypto-friendly US administration, strong ETF inflows, and progress on industry-backed legislation. Those hopes have faded. Money has flowed out of crypto funds in recent months, the Trump-linked World Liberty Financial coin has lost much of its value, and key bills remain stalled in the US Senate — despite earlier bank forecasts calling for BTC to hit USD 300k by year-end.

For retail investors, the sell-off has cracked the idea that crypto now has a reliable price floor. With US policymakers ruling out direct intervention and Treasury officials dismissing calls to backstop BTC with public funds, traders are once again exposed to the asset class’s defining risk: volatility driven as much by narrative as fundamentals.

History suggests the pain can spill into the real economy. Prolonged downturns have often triggered layoffs, stalled innovation, and weaker confidence across the sector.

However, veterans argue the pattern is familiar. Every previous crypto winter has eventually given way to a new peak, albeit after long periods of losses and consolidation. “There are several things signifying that we are very close to a bottom, if not having achieved it,” said James Butterfill of CoinShares, signalling that the worst of this slump is over — even as investors brace for a longer chill.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asia-Pacific markets are a sea of green in early trading this morning as investors react to Japanese Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi victory, which also sent gold soaring after ending last week in the red. Japan’s Nikkei and South Korea’s Kospi are leading gains.

ADX	10,563	+0.2% (YTD: +5.7%)
DFM	6,691	+0.2% (YTD: +10.7%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	5,462	+0.3% (YTD: +11.7%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	3.4% o/n	3.7% 1 yr
TASI	11,217	+0.3% (YTD: +6.9%)
EGX30	50,035	+0.6% (YTD: +19.6%)
S&P 500	6,932	+2.0% (YTD: +1.3%)
FTSE 100	10,370	+0.6% (YTD: +4.4%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,998	+1.2% (YTD: +3.6%)
Brent crude	USD 67.60	-0.7%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.21	-6.2%
Gold	USD 5,044	+1.3%
BTC	USD 70,386	+1.5% (YTD: -19.7%)
Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	AED 3.78	+1.3% (YTD: +0.8%)
S&P MENA bond & sukuk	151.93	0.0% (YTD: 0.0%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	17.76	-18.4% (YTD: +18.8%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The ADX rose 0.2% Friday on turnover of AED 1.2 bn. The index is up 5.7% YTD.

In the green: United Arab Bank (+3.6%), Waha Capital Company (+3.0%), and Bank of Sharjah (+2.4%).

In the red: Space42 (-3.6%), Dana Gas (-3.3%), and Eshraq Investments (-3.0%).

Over on the DFM, the index rose 0.2% on turnover of AED 728.4 mn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was up 0.3%.

UAE and Gabon ink Cepa

The UAE inked yet another Comprehensive Economic Partnership Agreement (Cepa), this time with Gabon, focusing on SME collaboration and bilateral investment in the agricultural, logistics, and renewable energy sectors, state news agency Wam reports. The Abu Dhabi meeting between the Emirati president and his Gabonese counterpart also saw the signing of an MoU on defense collaboration and the launch of a UAE-Gabon Business Council.

IN CONTEXT- The UAE is currently Africa’s largest FDI source, with over USD 110 bn invested since 2019, while non-oil trade with the continent hit USD 112 bn in 2024, a 34% y-o-y increase. The UAE has also been ramping up its Cepa agenda, with 14 new agreements coming into force last year. So far this year, it inked agreements with Sierra Leone and the Democratic Republic of the Congo, while an agreement with Japan is reaching its final stages. Negotiations with both the EU and Ecuador are still underway.

ALSO- President Mohamed bin Zayed Al Nahyan met with his Paraguayan counterpart Santiago Peña Palacios to discuss deepening cooperation across infrastructure, technology, AI, and Paraguay’s mining sector, Wam reports. The two also signed MoUs on aviation cooperation and railway networks.

MEANWHILE- The UAE and Armenia signed a services and investment accord aimed at widening market access and boosting cross-border capital flows, Wam reports. Foreign Trade Minister Thani bin Ahmed Al Zeyoudi said the agreement is intended to optimize access for UAE service exports and boost bilateral investment. The framework targets companies operating in finance, advisory, education, and healthcare, while opening the door to higher levels of foreign direct investment and public-private partnerships, he noted.

DATA POINT- The two countries saw a record USD 4.5 bn in non-oil trade in 2025. The UAE has surpassed Russia to become the largest foreign investor in Armenia.

CALENDAR

FEBRUARY

Signposted to happen sometime this month: Investopia, Lagos, Nigeria.

9-11 February (Monday-Wednesday): AIBC Eurasia, Dubai Festival City, Dubai.

9-12 February (Monday-Friday): World Health Expo (WHX), Dubai.

10 February (Tuesday): AVCJ Private Equity Forum, Four Seasons Hotel, Abu Dhabi.

10-11 February (Tuesday-Wednesday): Forbes Middle East Top Advisors & Investors Summit, Conrad Etihad Towers, Abu Dhabi.

11 February (Wednesday): Family Office Summit, Park Hyatt Dubai, Dubai.

11-13 February (Wednesday-Friday): MedTech World Middle East, Dubai.

12-15 February (Thursday-Sunday): The Society for Incentive Travel Excellence Global Conference, Abu Dhabi.

10-11 February (Tuesday-Wednesday): Top Advisors and Investors Summit, Abu Dhabi.

MARCH

31 March – 2 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Arab Media Summit, Dubai.

26-28 March (Thursday-Saturday): Social Capital Conference, Dubai.

28-29 March (Saturday-Sunday): Emirates International Congress on AI & Visionary Leadership in Transforming Healthcare, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

30 March – 2 April (Monday-Thursday): IAAPA Middle East Exhibition and Conference, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

APRIL

7-9 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Health Summit, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

13-15 April (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

13-15 April (Monday-Wednesday): The International Glass Manufacturing Show, Dubai.

14-16 April: (Tuesday-Thursday): the International Property Show, Sheikh Zayed Rd, Dubai.

21-23 April (Tuesday-Thursday): UITP Public Transport Summit, Dubai.

MAY

11-15 May (Monday-Friday): Dubai Future Finance Week, Dubai.

11-13 May (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center.

19-20 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Capital Market Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

19-22 May (Tuesday-Friday): Abu Dhabi Water and Energy Week, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

JUNE

3-4 June (Wednesday-Thursday): Annual MENA Investor Conference, Ritz-Carlton DIFC, Dubai.

15 June – 15 September (Monday-Thursday): Dubai Mallathon, Dubai.

JULY

31 July (Friday): Large businesses achieving annual revenues equal to or above AED 50 mn must appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

NOVEMBER

9-10 November (Monday-Tuesday): Annual government meetings, Abu Dhabi.

DECEMBER

2-4 December (Wednesday-Friday): UN Water Conference, UAE.

Signposted to happen in 2026:

The UAE to host the Arab Competition Forum;
Investopia Global Talks, Tashkent.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1 January: Deadline for large businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project;

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): World Governments Summit.
31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing;
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai;
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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