Good morning, lovely people, and happy FRIDAY. It’s our last issue before the start of the final month of the quarter — and of Ramadan, so Ramadan Kareem to all who observe. We hope you have a blessed weekend with your families.
There is no single big story abroad this morning as the news winds down ahead of the weekend, though we have fresh figures on the banking sector in 2024 from Alvarez & Marsal, as well as more LNG sales and purchase agreements from Adnoc. Plus: Space42 posts its first earnings since the merger between Bayanat and Yahsat, and UAE-based venture builder Distrupt.com commits USD 100 mn to AI ventures.
⛅WEATHER- It’s a slightly cooler day today in Dubai with only partially sunny conditions, and temperatures peaking at 24°C, before dropping to an overnight low of 19°C. It’s more of the same in Abu Dhabi, where the mercury peaks at 20°C before dropping to 18°C overnight.
WATCH THIS SPACE-
#1- Adnoc and Taqa eye investments in Cyprus’ energy sector? Adnoc is considering investments in Cyprus’ Exclusive Economic Zone (EEZ), Energy Minister George Papanastasiou said at Investopia, Reuters reports. While Adnoc currently favors existing assets, Papanastasiou did not rule out the possibility of a new exploration licensing round, reiterating comments he made last November. Papanastasiou also reaffirmed Taqa’s interest in investing in the EUR 1.9 bn Great Sea Interconnector (GSI), an electricity transmission project linking Europe to Cyprus — and later to Israel — set for completion by 2030.
Background: Adnoc and Cypriot energy officials met last summer to explore investments in the island’s emerging natural gas sector, particularly within the EEZ. The UAE and Cyprus discussed stronger trade, investment, and energy ties at a diplomatic meeting in September.
#2- Sharjah-born property developer Arada is eyeing a potential IPO in three years’ time, Founder and CEO Ahmed Alkhoshaibi told The National, without disclosing the potential size or venue of the transaction. He noted that the company’s decision to follow through on its IPO plans will depend largely on market conditions as well as its own financial performance over the coming years. Arada’s net income after tax grew nearly three-fold y-o-y in 1H 2024 to AED 125.8 mn, according to its latest results (pdf).
IN CONTEXT- Arada is looking to capitalize on increased demand for Emirati real estate assets, after its USD 1.52 bn Masaar 2 project sold out within just three hours of opening. “Indians remained the biggest percentage as an individual nationality and the rest is divided between westerners, Eastern Europeans and Arabs, GCC and UAE nationals,” the CEO said.
Also in the pipeline: The real estate developer wants to scale beyond its core Sharjah and Dubai markets, with plans to expand into Ras Al Khaimah, Abu Dhabi, and Saudi Arabia, Alkhoshaibi said. It also recently launched an office in Australia, with plans to develop AED 6 bn in Sydney.
#3- Have real estate prices finally hit a breaking point? Dubai’s real estate prices fell for the first time since summer 2022, dipping 0.57% in January, signaling a potential shift toward stabilization, Trade Arabia reports, citing Property Monitor data. Average prices dropped to below AED 1.5k per sq ft during the month, despite January marking a record 14.4k transactions.
REMEMBER- Earlier this week, Moody’s forecasted a dip or stabilization in Dubai’s property market over the next 12 to 18 months, as developers face rising construction costs and potential delivery delays, alongside a large pipeline of pre-sales set for completion over the next two to three years. A Deloitte report similarly projected that residential price and rent growth may slow by year-end as new supply enters the market, while Knight Frank previously forecasted that Dubai’s residential prices will rise by 8% in 2025, down from a 20% surge in 2024, with an increase in supply over the next two to three years to contribute to market stabilization.
New supply entered the market as off-plan activity remained strong in January, with 53 new launches from 37 developers adding 12.4k units. Still, sales volumes declined 4.6% from December 2024, with off-plan transactions falling 17.7% m-o-m, making up 52% of total sales with 7.6k transactions. Mortgage activity increased 6.8% m-o-m, with 4.1k loans secured, while title deed sales rose 15.7%, accounting for 47.6% of all transactions.
#4- Dubai’s Virtual Assets Regulatory Authority (VARA) plans to introduce new regulations in 1Q 2025, CEO Matthew White told The Standard. Issuers and service providers may be required to disclose the identities of major crypto holders, known as “whales,” to enhance consumer protection and improve transparency. Since many crypto holders use pseudonyms, this measure could help authorities track illicit activities like money laundering. Issuers may also be mandated to define redemption mechanisms, disclose the composition of their reserves, and undergo audits to ensure investors are fully informed of potential risks.
#5- More debt issuances from local banks? Our friends at Mashreq and Ajman Bank are the latest to approve new debt programs, after Emirates NBD and its Islamic finance unit Emirates Islamic did the same earlier this week.
- Mashreq greenlit major debt issuance plans, including an update to its USD 5 bn EUR Medium Term Note Program and USD 2.5 bn sukuk program, while allocating USD 4 bn in new debt instruments under its programs and USD 3 bn in standalone debt and/or shariah-compliant instruments, including USD 1.5 bn for regulatory capital purposes. It also secured approval to restructure outstanding debt;
- Ajman Bank has secured shareholder approval to launch a USD 1.5 bn sukuk issuance program within a year, enabling the issuance of shariah-compliant bonds with tenors ranging from five to 60 years to international investors in and outside of the UAE, according to a DFM disclosure (pdf). The sukuk will be non-convertible and rank equally with or below senior debt.
#6- Jaywan cards to come to Google Pay, Apple Pay, and India: Al Etihad Payments, the payments arm of the Central Bank of the UAE, is working to make the domestic card system Jaywan available on Apple Pay and Google Pay, according to a press release (pdf). The next phase of the scheme will also expand Jaywan outside of the UAE to India and other countries by the middle of this year.
REMEMBER- Jaywan cards are set to replace some 10 mn debit cards currently in use over the next few years and are being rolled out in stages, with Network International, Ajman Bank, Mbank, Mashreq’s Neopay, and Emirates NBD among those already accepting them.
#7- MBRSC to launch UAE’s first SAR satellite in March: The Mohammed Bin Rashid Space Center (MBRSC) will launch its first Synthetic Aperture Radar (SAR) satellite, Etihad-SAT, in early March aboard a SpaceX Falcon 9 rocket from Vandenberg Air Force Base, California, Wam reports. Developed in partnership with Korea’s Satrec Initiative, the satellite will strengthen the UAE’s Earth observation capabilities.
Key features: Etihad-SAT will provide high-resolution imaging in all weather conditions, supporting critical sectors across the UAE while enhancing remote sensing and AI-driven data analysis. The satellite, part of the UAE’s expanding satellite fleet, It will operate in three imaging modes — spot, scan, and strip — offering detailed wide-area observations.
DATA POINTS-
#1- The ADGM recorded a 32% y-o-y rise in registered companies to nearly 2.4k in 2024, according to a statement. Assets under management (AUM) also soared 245% year-on-year, with 166 funds now operating within ADGM.
Many global firms joined the fold last year, with BlackRock, General Atlantic, and Morgan Stanley among those joining the financial hub, which recently expanded its jurisdiction to Al Reem Island to meet growing demand.
#2- DFSA reports 31% surge in authorized firms: The Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) authorized 135 new firms in 2024, a 31% y-o-y increase, pushing its total regulated entities past 900, state news agency Wam reports. The DFSA also approved 946 individuals and registered 17 corporate service providers, including law firms and compliance consultancies.
#3- GCC leads Dubai Chamber members’ record AED 309.6 bn exports in 2024:
GCC markets accounted for 52% (AED 161 bn) of Dubai Chamber of Commerce members’ exports and re-exports in 2024, according to a statement. Total exports and re-exports surged 9.2% y-o-y to AED 309.6 bn — crossing for the first time the AED 300 bn mark since the chamber’s inception.
Non-GCC Middle Eastern countries came in second with 24.8% (AED 76.8 bn) in exports, while Africa and Asia-Pacific contributed 10% (AED 30.9 bn) and 9.6% (AED 29.7 bn).
PSA-
FTA clarifies conditions for tax deadline extensions: The Federal Tax Authority (FTA) has confirmed that taxpayers may request deadline extensions for reviewing and reconsidering tax assessments, but only under specific circumstances, with the new rules taking effect in March, according to a circular (pdf). These include serious illness or accident, the death of the signatory, legal representative, or a close family member, unexpected business disruptions beyond the taxpayer’s control, destruction of records due to a disaster, system failures or IT transitions, an FTA request for unavailable documents, or force majeure events.
Not exempt: Lack of knowledge, third-party negligence, request complexity, or business management conflicts are not reasons for extensions.
HAPPENING TODAY-
The Education First Forum will take place today at the Adnec Center in Abu Dhabi. The event brings together policymakers, educators, students, and parents to align education strategies with UAE Centennial 2071 goals, focusing on youth development and global competitiveness.
THE BIG STORY ABROAD-
It’s a busy morning in the foreign press as US President Donald Trump holds a press conference with UK Prime Minister Keir Starmer, where he said the two countries are working on a trade agreement that would allow the UK to escape US tariffs. On the flip side: The goal of the press conference — securing a peace agreement for Ukraine — was not met, with the two officials failing to secure security assurances. (FT | Guardian | AP | Reuters)
Meanwhile, Mexico extradited dozens of prisoners to the US, including a high-profile drug trafficker, following Trump’s threats to impose a 25% tariff on the country. (FT | Guardian | AP | Reuters)
AND- US tech stocks led a brutal sell-off yesterday that saw the tech-heavy Nasdaq fall 2.8%, with Nvidia falling more than 8% and wiping out USD 273 bn in value, moving it out of the USD 3 tn club. The S&P 500 also dipped 1.6%. (FT | CNBC)
AND ON THE AI FRONT- OpenAI launched its largest artificial intelligence model yet with what it claims are fewer so-called “hallucinations.” GPT-4.5 achieves a hallucination rate of 37%, compared with 62% on its predecessor GPT-4o, the tech firm said in a blog post yesterday.
CLOSER TO HOME- An Israeli delegation left for Egypt for talks on continuing the ceasefire in Gaza, two days before the first phase of the agreement is set to expire. (Guardian | AP)
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MARKET WATCH-
Could Opec+ freeze oil output hikes scheduled for April? With foggy visibility in global supply caused by new US sanctions on Venezuela, Iran, and Russia, Opec+ is on the fence about whether to hike oil outputs in April as planned, or to keep them at their current level, Reuters reports, citing eight anonymous Opec+ sources. This comes in spite of pressure from US President Donald Trump to boost production and lower prices to USD 60-70 per barrel.
Another decision to postpone the 120k bbl / d production increase would mark the fourth time that the group has decided to put off rolling back production caps which first came into effect in 2022, the business news information service said.
The group’s final decision is expected to be confirmed by the end of the first week of March, with sources telling Reuters that members have so far not reached a consensus.
REMEMBER- Opec+ began withholding 5.85 mn bbl / d, or 5.7% of global supply, via a series of cuts beginning in 2022 with the aim of supporting markets. The latest extension of output cuts through 1Q 2025 delayed production increases until April. The UAE was also allowed an increase of its production by 300k bbl / d from April 2025 instead of the beginning of the year as previously agreed.
CIRCLE YOUR CALENDAR-
The Global Islamic FinTech Forum will take place on 15 April at the Dusit Thani Hotel in Dubai, bringing together experts, investors, and regulators to discuss developments in shariah-compliant financial technology. Topics will include digital payments, peer-to-peer lending, takaful, and blockchain-based financial services.
Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.


