Iran escalates to state-owned telecoms infrastructure — but what comes next could be much worse

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: Nafis Emiratization program extended + Abu Dhabi tourism was on a roll last year

Good morning, friends. New frontiers are opening in the war, with state-owned telecoms infrastructure being the latest target — and a potential tit-for-tat threatening a much bigger and more dangerous escalation as US President Donald Trump’s deadline for Iran to open up the Strait of Hormuz expires later today. We talk to economists about the potential repercussions of that escalation in this morning’s Big Story Today, below.

The war has also hit the UAE’s IPO pipeline. IPO hopefuls including Emirates Global Aluminium and Etihad Airways are now facing unprecedented headwinds, from a damaged production facility for the former to disrupted operations at the latter. We have everything you need to know about this, and more, in the news well below.

WEATHER- We’re in for a breezy day, with highs hovering around 28-29°C in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, and a low of 21°C.

Watch this space

REGULATION WATCH — More benefits for Emiratis in store: The UAE is extending its Nafis Emiratization program through 2040 to expand support for Emirati talent and competitiveness in the private sector, according to a post on X. Under the new program updates, the government removed the cap on the number of children eligible for allowances — initially capped at four — and launched a financial support program for Emirati wives working in the private sector and their children.

IN CONTEXT- Launched in 2021, the Nafis program is aimed at increasing the number of Emiratis employed in the private sector, with the goal of having 75k highly-trained Emiratis fill up 10% of positions in private firms across the country by 2026. Since its launch, the number of Emirati nationals working in the private sector has climbed by 325% as of last August.

MACRO — The GCC can withstand war-related shocks, IMF chief says: Strong institutions and economic diversification will allow Gulf economies to absorb shocks from the US-Iran war, IMF Managing Director Kristalina Georgieva told Asharq Business. That being said, the global lender will “somewhat” lower its growth forecast for GCC nations, she added. Global growth, too, will see a downward revision.

Watch this space: The regional war and its economic impact is expected to dominate discussions among policymakers during the IMF and World Bank’s annual spring meetings, which will kick off on Monday, 13 April.

Data point

26.6 mn — that’s the number of tourists that came to Abu Dhabi in 2025, according to the Abu Dhabi Media Office. It was a solid year for Abu Dhabi, with hotel revenues rising 19.5% to AED 9.1 bn, and international arrivals up 10%. Occupancy also climbed to 81%, while the average daily rate rose 19% and revenue per available room (RevPAR) jumped 23%.

Watch out for potentially less impressive figures this year. While the spring season is usually a big one for tourists, hotels and arrivals have been hit by the ongoing war and aviation disruptions, with many hotels slashing prices to attract customers. Even for those who still want to come despite the war, it’s become more difficult to find flights, as many international airlines have suspended service to the UAE (and other parts of the region).

The big story abroad

US-Iran talks haven’t made much headway yet. US President Donald Trump shut down Iran’s 45-day ceasefire proposal, which he criticised for being “not good enough.” Trump warned that every bridge in Iran could be destroyed if a resolution — that reopens the Strait of Hormuz — was not reached by later today. “The entire country can be taken out in one night,” Trump said during a news conference yesterday.

Tehran hit back with a ten-point proposal, which reportedly demands assurances that Iran would not be attacked again, an end to Israeli strikes on Lebanon’s Hezbollah, and the removal of all sanctions, two senior Iranian officials told the New York Times.

Meanwhile, in the world of finance: Global investment bank Goldman Sachs said that the recent exodus of retail investors from private credit has created an opportune moment to invest in the asset class. The firm characterized the trend as a “meaningful shift” which will result in heavier reliance on institutional investors.

Also in the news orbit is Nasa’s latest mission, Artemis II, which has officially reached the farthest point in space ever travelled by humans. Launched earlier this week, the mission took four astronauts around the far side of the moon and they’re now on their way back to Earth.

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Check out our full calendar on the web for a comprehensive listing of upcoming news events, national holidays and news triggers.

Another escalation as Iran targets state-owned telecom infrastructure for the first time

A new frontier in the war? A drone from Iran targeted a Du building in Fujairah yesterday, resulting in a “minor incident” with no injuries reported, state news agency Wam reports. This marks the first time Iran has targeted state-owned telecom infrastructure in the UAE, though it did previously target Amazon Web Services data centers in the UAE and Bahrain.

This is another hit to the UAE’s digital hub ambitions. After the targeting of data centers earlier in the conflict, which led to outages at dozens of regional companies, the UAE’s data hub ambitions were already shaken. The uncertainty around how the war will pan out and the potentially high costs of downtime and repair of data centers is likely to prompt a pullback from multinationals, one cloud security infrastructure specialist told us earlier.

This time it’s not a data center, but a facility owned by a state-owned telecom giant responsible for a massive chunk of the UAE’s digital and telecom infrastructure. “They are now targeting other industries and other infrastructure, which qualifies as a slight escalation,” MENA Economist Hamzeh Al Gaood told EnterpriseAM UAE.

This development adds to the risk premium that had already existed since the start of the war. “It’s economic pain, and it’s increasing the level of threat and risk on the GCC,” Al Gaood added, explaining that there will be a risk premium attached to telecom infrastructure associated with the fact that investments might be needed to repair facilities.

Plus: Iran is still targeting industrial sites. An office building belonging to tech firm Raneen Systems in the Industrial City of Abu Dhabi (ICAD) in Mussafah was also hit yesterday, resulting in one moderate injury, Wam reported separately.

But the bigger concern is what Trump might do today — and what that might trigger

“The real escalation would be power generation and desalination plants,” he confirms. “I am very worried about what happens if tomorrow really is the threatened ‘power plant day’,” director of Khalij Economics and GCC analyst for GlobalSource Partners Justin Alexander says, noting that Iran is escalating as the US and Israel escalate against it.

Iran and the United States are playing a game of tit-for-tat over what’s a fair military target, and there’s new risk that desalination infrastructure could be on the list.

Iran has threatened to hit desalination plants if Trump attacks its power plants. A desalination plant in Bahrain was already hit earlier in the conflict, as was a power and water desalination plant in Kuwait on Sunday, though Iran denied responsibility later, accusing Israel of carrying out the strike.

Why it matters: Gulf states rely on desalination for over 90% of their drinking water — and the UAE gets some 42% of its total annual water supply from it, according to data from the French Institute of Relations picked up by Bloomberg recently. This dependency varies across the Gulf, with Kuwait being the most dependent (about 90%), Oman trailing close behind (86%), Saudi Arabia relying on them for 70% of their water needs, and the UAE being the least exposed (42%).

Attacks on water infrastructure would be an existential threat to GCC nations, not an economic one, and would risk drawing them more directly into the conflict.

“Damage to individual pieces of telecom and tech infrastructure can be repaired. What really matters is having an environment of stability post-war in which confidence can be restored,” Alexander added.

The UAE is standing firm on its demands

UAE official Anwar Gargash reiterated that the UAE is calling for a ceasefire, but one that addresses the Strait of Hormuz and Iran’s missiles and drones as well as its nuclear program, Reuters quotes him as saying.

“We don’t want to see more and more escalation,” he said. “But we don’t want a ceasefire that fails to address some of the main issues ⁠that will create a much more dangerous environment in the region...notably (Iran's) nuclear program, the missiles and drones that are still raining down on us and on other countries."

Kiss your 2026 IPO goodbye?

IPO hopefuls in the UAE are holding off their listing plans, with timelines now slipping from weeks to months as the Iran war disrupts sentiment and makes execution windows harder to read.

The 1H 2026 window is largely closed. IPOs that were expected to hit the market in the near term are now being pushed into 2H, with any reopening likely toward late 3Q or early 4Q, Tahir Abbas, head of research at Ubhar Capital, tells EnterpriseAM. And even then, it would only be “high-quality issuers with strong fundamentals and anchor investor backing,” he added.

“International appetite has moderated [...] with investors becoming more selective and valuation-sensitive,” Abbas said, even if foreign participation is “not absent.” In practice, that’s increasing reliance on “domestic and regional liquidity in the near term” to support any new listings.

REMEMBER- Foreign investors turned net sellers across both exchanges in March, pulling some AED 1.06 bn across both markets, according to data compiled by Alkhaleej.

A tale of two bourses: “The DFM is currently more exposed due to its higher retail flows and cyclical sectors,” while the ADX is “better supported by institutional liquidity and government-linked listings,” Abbas said, adding that Abu Dhabi is expected to recover faster once conditions stabilize. That gap is reflected in market performance, with the DFM falling 16.4%, as opposed to an 8.9% decline on the ADX.

Sector selection is becoming the main deciding factor

”Cyclical sectors such as consumer discretionary, real estate, and logistics have been the most impacted,” Abbas said, “given their sensitivity to demand and sentiment.” On the other hand, “utilities and energy-linked businesses remain relatively stable due to stronger earnings visibility and defensive positioning,” he explained, while financials are showing “a mixed trend.”

The candidates in the IPO pipeline? Many of them are in those hard-hit sectors. Dubai Holding had been planning to float two of its property portfolio units, while hospitality group Five Holdings tapped advisors for a potential listing. Meanwhile, the highly anticipated ADQ-backed Etihad Airways IPO — previously slated for 2025 — was pushed to 2026. Emirates Global Aluminium, which is now having to grapple with a severely damaged facility in the UAE which will require a year for full repair, had also been weighing what would have been a major IPO, which could value it at USD 10-15 bn.

Maybe some hope for one? Abu Dhabi Investment Group is eyeing listings for its financial unit and energy subsidiary this year — which, given they’re in slightly more defensive sectors, could have more of a chance.

Shisha producer Advanced Inhalation Ritual was also planning a 1H 2026 IPO on Nasdaq via a SPAC merger, but US markets have also been choppy since the start of the war.

Despite the volatility, UAE companies are not looking for offshore venues, Abbas said, but are becoming “more flexible on timing and structure,” opting to delay or optimize execution rather than relocate listings altogether.

ZOOMING OUT- The IPO pipeline is stalling across the region, with what was expected to be a strong year now being pushed back as issuers reassess timing in a more volatile market. Only three IPOs made it across the finish line in the GCC so far this year, with volumes down 72.2% y-o-y. The valuations are low due to external factors and the markets remain oversold,” Junaid Ansari, director of investment strategy and research at Kamco Invest, previously told EnterpriseAM.

Americana names Rahul Mathur as CFO

Americana Restaurants has a new finance lead, with Rahul Mathur (LinkedIn) stepping in as CFO yesterday, according to a press release (pdf). Prior to joining Americana, Mathur spent over two years at Toronto-based silicon connectivity firm Alphawave Semi, serving as CFO and later as COO before departing in February 2026. Before that, he served as CFO at US-based Avantus.

Another support package for SMEs, RAK developer pushes ahead with Dubai expansion, and Kezad sees new projects

Dubai South rolls out rent relief + payment flexibility measures for SMEs

Dubai South is giving SMEs some breathing room, rolling out rent relief and payment flexibility to keep businesses steady at its Business Park, according to Dubai Media Office. The package includes incentives for contract renewals, ranging from rentfree periods and deferred payments to waived penalties, in addition to a freeze on lease rates for eligible tenants. The measures will be reviewed over time, with adjustments made as market conditions shift.

Dubai South’s package is only the latest among several ones aimed at keeping smaller businesses afloat. Just last week, Dubai-based spend platform Qashio rolled out a AED 10 mn support program with Dubai Chambers, while authorities moved in late March with an AED 1 bn package to cushion private-sector strain linked to the regional conflict.

Tourism is also in focus, with a dedicated support package in the pipeline, Economy and Tourism Minister Abdulla Bin Touq Al Marri told Dubai Eye in a podcast. He added that the sector has remained supported through the recent disruption, including assistance for more than 10k tourists, ensuring accommodation, meals, and safe return. The AED 1 bn Dubai package also included measures specific to the sector.

RAK real estate developer plans seven new luxury projects in Dubai

While the war triggers global disruptions, some UAE luxury developers are pushing forward with their plans unabated. Ras Al Khaimah (RAK) real estate developer BNW is entering the Dubai market this year with seven residential and commercial projects, Al Khaleej reports, citing the developer’s founder and Chairman Ankur Agarwal. The company launched its first residential project in Al Furjan.

The developer’s plans remain on course for completion by 2029, with plans to expand into other emirates, including Abu Dhabi.

IN CONTEXT- Analysts told us earlier that a prolonged war could cool the emirate's real estate market. A group of high-end developers, including Binghatti and Omniyat, is nonetheless affirming operational continuity, with no purchase cancellations reported across all projects. Arada and Sobha also confirmed liquidity and active pipelines.

Kezad to see five new logistics and industrial investments

Kezad draws in AED 147 mn new industrial projects: Khalifa Economic Zones Abu Dhabi (Kezad) is getting five new industrial and logistics projects across Kezad Al Ain and Al Ma’mourah with some AED 147 mn in investments, state news agency Wam reports.

The projects include an oilfield chemicals blending facility, a car cleaning products manufacturing facility, and a metal forming and coating unit, as well as industrial and logistics warehouses.

IN CONTEXT- The new investments come as Kezad’s industrial base comes under continuous fire by Iranian targeted attacks. Last week, Emirates Global Aluminium’s (EGA) Al Taweelah site sustained significant damage from Iranian missiles. Multiple other fires also broke out after the intercepted debris crashed in the district, resulting in six injuries.

Global private equity activity slows down due to AI-related risks, geopolitical tensions

Global private equity’s nascent recovery has been stalled by a double-whammy of geopolitical conflict and technological anxiety. After 2025 closed out the year on notes of recovery and optimism, the first quarter of 2026 showed a sharp reversal in momentum.

By the numbers: Globally, 1Q 2026 buyout activity fell to USD 172 bn (down 36% q-o-q; 8% y-o-y), while exits dropped 33% q-o-q to USD 162 bn, the Financial Times reports, citing data from Dealogic. The industry is choking on a backlog of pre-2022 investments that have been difficult to exit or refinance amid high rates and geopolitical shocks. Consequently, fundraising remains dry. The USD 86 bn raised in 1Q 2026 falls just under the lackluster pace of the same period in 2025 — the sector's weakest year since 2018.

Behind the slowdown

The war in the Gulf isn’t helping: Several buyout firms paused signings altogether due to the heightened volatility from the war, with executives warning that the full economic fallout from the conflict has yet to materialise.

The biggest blow has been to the software sector: Traditionally, the safest and most lucrative wager for private equity, AI is now being approached with more caution. Investors fear that agentic AI — AI that can perform complex tasks autonomously — will cannibalize existing software business models. As such, many firms have adopted a “wait and see” approach, holding off on deploying capital into software until they can identify which companies are resilient to AI disruption.

Looking ahead

This AI reluctance could skew gains toward the few: BlackRock CEO Larry Fink’s latest annual letter argued that the companies best positioned to use AI — those with the right data, infrastructure, and capital — will reap most of the benefits, leaving others behind and deepening the wealth gap between those that can invest in the technology and those that want to but lack the resources.

Our take: The steady revenue models that drove SaaS buyout over the past few years are now being called into question as AI starts to challenge traditional software pricing. That uncertainty is creating gaps in the market — gaps that well-capitalized GCC investors are well placed to step into, particularly as they look to rebound from the impact of the regional conflict.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Asian markets are mostly up in early trading this morning, with Japan’s Nikkei the only exception, having erased earlier gains and trading 0.3% lower. US stock futures are down as well after US President Donald Trump set an 8pm EST deadline for the US and Iran to reach a deal.

ADX	9,625	+0.3% (YTD: -3.7%)
DFM	5,448	-0.7% (YTD: -9.9%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	4,523	+0.0% (YTD: -7.5%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	3.6% o/n	3.7% 1 yr
TASI	11,263	-0.1% (YTD: +7.4%)
EGX30	47,652	+0.8% (YTD: +13.9%)
S&P 500	6,612	+0.4% (YTD: -3.4%)
FTSE 100	10,436	+0.7% (YTD: +5.1%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,693	-0.7% (YTD: -1.7%)
Brent crude	USD 109.77	+0.7%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 2.81	-0.1%
Gold	USD 4,685	0.0%
BTC	USD 68,655	-0.5% (YTD: -21.7%)
Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	AED 3.58	-2.2% (YTD: -4.5%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	149.14	-0.3% (YTD: -1.8%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	24.17	+1.3% (YTD: +61.6%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The DFM fell 0.7% yesterday on turnover of AED 660.1 mn. The index is down 9.9% YTD.

In the green: Amlak Finance (+2.3%), Union Properties (+1.8%), and Aramex (+1.9%).

In the red: National Cement Company (-4.9%), Agility the Public Warehousing Company (-4.7%), and Commercial Bank of Dubai (-4.3%).

Over on the ADX, the index rose 0.3% on turnover of AED 817 mn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was nearly flat.

Corporate Actions

Adnoc Gas shareholders approved a final USD 896 mn dividend for 4Q 2025, bringing its total dividends for the year to USD 3.6 bn, marking a 5% increase y-o-y and its biggest dividend on record, according to a press release (pdf).

CALENDAR

APRIL

20-22 April (Monday-Wednesday): Abu Dhabi Global Entrepreneurship Festival, Abu Dhabi Energy Center, Abu Dhabi

21 April (Tuesday): FAO Regional Conference for the Near East (NERC38), Al Ain.

28-29 April (Tuesday-Wednesday): Innovation Summit Middle East & Africa, Abu Dhabi.

MAY

4-8 May (Wednesday-Saturday): Make It in the Emirates, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

8-24 May (Saturday-Sunday): Dubai Esports and Games Festival, Dubai.

11-13 May (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

11-15 May (Monday-Friday): Dubai Future Finance Week, Dubai.

12-14 May (Tuesday-Thursday): Abu Dhabi Infrastructure Summit, ICC Hall, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

19-20 May (Tuesday-Wednesday): Capital Market Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

19-22 May (Tuesday-Friday): Abu Dhabi Water and Energy Week, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

20-21 May (Wednesday-Thursday): Arab Competition Forum, Dubai.

JUNE

3-4 June (Wednesday-Thursday): MENA Investor Conference, Ritz-Carlton DIFC, Dubai.

15 June - 15 September (Monday-Thursday): Dubai Mallathon, Dubai.

22-24 June (Monday-Wednesday): The International Glass Manufacturing Show, Dubai.

JULY

31 July (Friday): Large businesses achieving annual revenues equal to or above AED 50 mn must appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.

AUGUST

17-20 August (Monday-Thursday): Arabian Travel Market, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

SEPTEMBER

1-3 September (Tuesday-Thursday: Middle East Energy, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

7-9 September (Monday-Wednesday): International Property Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

12-13 September (Saturday-Sunday): Emirates International Congress on AI & Visionary Leadership in Transforming Healthcare, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

OCTOBER

4-10 October (Sunday-Saturday): World Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

12-14 October (Monday-Wednesday: Airport Show, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai.

20-22 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Future Health Summit, Adnec Center Abu Dhabi.

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

NOVEMBER

4 November (Wednesday): Digital Transformation Summit, Sofitel, Abu Dhabi.

9-10 November (Monday-Tuesday): Annual government meetings, Abu Dhabi.

10-12 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Dubai International Electric Vehicle Exhibition & Conference, Dubai World Trade Center.

DECEMBER

2-4 December (Wednesday-Friday): UN Water Conference, UAE.

Signposted to happen in 2026:

Investopia Global Talks, Tashkent;
Investopia, Abu Dhabi.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1 January: Deadline for large businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project;

1-3 February (Monday-Wednesday): World Governments Summit;
31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation;
21-22 April (Wednesday-Thursday): Token2049, Dubai;
1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing;
1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing;
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2028:

Artificial Intelligence Summit.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai;
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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