Inflation picks up pace again in Dubai

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WHAT WE’RE TRACKING TODAY

THIS MORNING: United Arab Bank could sell USD 800 mn in non-performing loans

Good morning, friends, and welcome to a new week. It’s a relatively calm Monday morning, with a handful of stories to stay on top of as you shake off the weekend cobwebs.

Leading our newswell this morning is Dubai’s inflation reading accelerating again in September after a brief reprieve in August that saw the emirate’s rate of inflation cooling off. The acceleration is being pushed primarily by the transport sector, where prices are showing lower deflation. We also have the latest from DP World, which set up a new joint venture with Uzbekistan’s Tashkent City for a logistics terminal, as well as Taaleem’s FY 2024-25 results.

WATCH THIS SPACE-

1- UAB to sell USD 800 mn in bad debt? United Arab Bank (UAB) is considering selling around USD 800 mn in non-performing loans as it looks to strengthen its balance sheet, sources familiar with the matter told Bloomberg. The bank has reportedly appointed Rothschild & Co. to advise as it weighs up the move, though discussions remain at an early stage and no set decision has been reached yet. UAB declined to comment, Bloomberg added. The move would place UAB among a growing number of UAE lenders offloading bad debt portfolios.

REMEMBER- Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (ADCB) sold around USD 1.4 bn in non-performing loans to Davidson Kempner Capital Management earlier this month, marking their second such transaction. At the start of the year, First Abu Dhabi Bank sold soured loans worth USD 800 mn to Deutsche Bank.

#2- Dubai has a new financial strategy: Dubai approved its financial sector strategy (DFSS) — a new roadmap designed to double the financial sector’s contribution to GDP and increase assets under management, according to Dubai Media Office.

The strategy will roll out 15 programs over the next three years, targeting key verticals including capital markets, asset and wealth management, SME financing, fintech, and virtual assets. It looks to increase the listing of family businesses and startups, attract new asset managers, and develop alternative financing models targeting SMEs.

#3- UAE extends 10% customs duty on steel rebar and coils: The UAE extended the customs duty on reinforcing steel and iron coils to 10%, from the previous 5%, until 12 October 2026, according to a Dubai Customs statement (pdf). The decision extends the higher tariff first introduced in 2023 to support the domestic steel industry.

#4- Negotiations for the UK-GCC FreeTrade Agreement have reached an “advanced stage,” Country Director for Saudi Arabia at the UK’s Department for Business and Trade Pete Ashby told EnterpriseAM. The parties have made progress across a number of areas, including goods, services, and investment, Ashby said.

No rush: The focus remains on reaching the right terms for an agreement that serves shared interests and long-term growth, rather than getting it done by a specific date, he added. Talks over the draft agreement — which began in 2022 — resumed back in September 2024.

#5- Abu Dhabi brings air taxis to Egypt: Abu Dhabi Aviation has launched Egypt’s first air taxi service in partnership with the Egyptian Air Force, with investments worth EGP 5 bn (c. USD 105.6 mn), Asharq Business reports. The project currently operates four aircraft, with plans to expand to eight next month. Fares start at USD 200 for short trips within Cairo and reach USD 1.5k for longer routes to Sharm El Sheikh, Hurghada, and El Gouna. The service targets tourists and business travelers, with future plans to expand into air medical transport and express cargo.

DATA POINTS-

#1- Dubai high-end home transactions up 24% y-o-y: Dubai’s luxury real estate market recorded 103 home sales valued at over USD 10 mn in 3Q 2025, up 24% y-o-y, according to a press release from Knight Frank citing its latest data. Total high-end transactions were also on the up, rising 54% on a yearly basis to over USD 2 bn. In the ultra-luxury market, the average transaction size rose 23.8% y-o-y to more than USD 19.4 mn.

The luxury segment drove the results, doubling y-o-y to see 17 transactions over USD 25 mn during the quarter. Palm Jumeirah recorded the highest activity in prime residential transactions, accounting for 34% of the deals.

So far in the year: During 9M 2025, the emirate has seen 357 agreements for sales over USD 10 mn, up 26% from the same period last year.

#2- UAE targets 10k AI firms by 2030: The UAE plans to expand the number of companies offering full AI solutions by over 500%, reaching 10k by 2030 from about 1.5k currently, Khaleej Times cites AI Minister Omar Sultan Al Olama as saying.

PSAs-

#1- Eligible citizens in Abu Dhabi can now express their interest in government housing projects across the emirate through a new service on the Iskan Abu Dhabi app, courtesy of the Abu Dhabi Housing Authority, according to an Abu Dhabi Media Office statement. Users can compare options by location, completion date, and unit size before submitting their interest.

Who’s eligible? The first phase targets citizens with housing purchase loans, deferred repayment loans, or housing grants. The rollout begins in Al Ain, followed by Abu Dhabi and Al Dhafra, and the second phase will open up to citizens with approved construction loans and grants for residential land plots.

#2- Emirates cancels Madagascar flights amid unrest: Emirates halted service to Antananarivo, Madagascar’s capital, until further notice due to civil unrest, Khaleej Times reports. The suspension affects EK707/708, which operates between Dubai and Antananarivo via the Seychelles.

HAPPENING TODAY-

#1- The IUCN World Conservation Congress kicked off last week and is on until Wednesday in Abu Dhabi. The congress gathers government officials, academics, and members of the civil society to discuss the challenges facing sustainability and nature conservation, as well as the policy decisions influencing the conservation agenda. The event will be divided into three components — a forum, exhibition, and a members’ assembly to address how businesses should integrate sustainability into their strategies.

ExpandNorth Star is on its second day at Dubai Harbour and will run until Wednesday. The exhibition brings together over 2k startups, 1k investors, and accelerators from across over 100 countries to explore trends shaping the global startup ego system.

GITEXGlobal kicks off today and will be running until Friday at the Dubai World Trade Center. The tech expo gathers major industry players including from OpenAI and G42, government officials, and innovators under one roof to showcase developments in AI, cloud computing, cybersecurity, quantum technologies, and digital infrastructure.

HAPPENING THIS WEEK-

TheGlobal Future Councils annual meet kicks off tomorrow in Dubai and will run until Thursday. Hosted by the UAE government in collaboration with the World Economic Forum, the annual summit convenes leaders, ministers, and industry experts to shape policy frameworks on global issues, including energy transition, future cities, and the governance of emerging technologies.

The Evolve Future Mobility Show is running from Wednesday until Saturday at the Expo Center in Sharjah. The event will host 200 international exhibitors as well as industry leaders, policymakers, and entrepreneurs, to explore the use of EV technology in key sectors of sustainable mobility.

THE BIG STORY ABROAD-

Trump heads to the Middle East to finalize ceasefire agreement: US President Donald Trump is en route to Egypt and Israel to mark the US-brokered ceasefire and hostage exchange agreement between Israel and Hamas. The visit comes as the first phase of the agreement — including hostage releases and a partial Israeli withdrawal from Gaza — is being implemented. Trump will first visit Israel to meet with Israeli officials and address parliament before attending a Gaza-focused summit in Sharm El Sheikh which he will be co-hosting with Egyptian President Abdel Fattah El Sisi. (Associated Press | New York Times | BBC)

Meanwhile in Europe, Macron faces political turbulence: French President Emmanuel Macron announced a new cabinet as he and reappointed Prime Minister Sebastien Lecornu face pressure to form a stable government and prevent another collapse. Lecornu, who stepped down last week before being reappointed Friday, now needs to rally support from centrist allies to survive looming no-confidence votes in parliament. With Macron’s popularity slipping and his coalition reduced to a weak minority, both opposition and allied parties have criticized him for refusing to scale back his agenda. (Bloomberg | Financial Times | Reuters | AP | France 24)

And, tensions are rising between Washington and Beijing: China has accused the US of escalating the trade war after Trump announced plans to impose a 100% tariff on Chinese exports and widen export control starting November, the Financial Times reports. China’s Commerce Ministry criticized the US for blacklisting Chinese firms and abusing national security measures, warning it would take “corresponding measures” if the tariffs proceed.

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MARKET WATCH-

An incoming wave of liquified natural gas (LNG) supply by the end of the decade could unlock long-term demand, Adnoc Gas CEO Fatema Al Nuaimi tells Bloomberg. “When price-sensitive markets tap into LNG, they don’t go back because they invest in terminals and infrastructure, [creating demand],” Al Nuaimi said. The remarks echo the International Energy Agency’s outlook, which sees record gas demand next year driven by economies in Asia, Africa, and the Middle East, Bloomberg added. However, it remains uncertain whether price-conscious countries will anchor future consumption as their uptake would depend on multiple factors, Bloomberg added.

Global LNG prices are widely expected to ease as several major projects come online in the coming years, including Adnoc’s planned Ruwais LNG plant, which will more than double the company’s export capacity, set to kick off operations in 2028.

REMEMBER- Adnoc Gas has been converting Heads of Agreements into sales agreements for its Ruwais LNG plant over the past year, with Indian Oil Corporation, Germany's SEFE, German energy infrastructure firm EnBW, Malaysia’s state-owned oil and gas firm Petronas, as well as a Japan’s Jera and Osaka Gas. The firm has already secured offtake agreements for over 8 mn tonnes per year of LNG from the facility, out of its 9.5 mtpa capacity.

Dubai inflation rebounds to 2.9% in September

Dubai’s annual inflation accelerated again in September to 2.88%, after slowing to 2.43% in August, pushed mainly by a slower decline in transport prices, according to the Dubai Statistics Center (pdf).

Housing price inflation is cooling further…: Price upticks came primarily from the housing, water, electricity, gas, and other fuels segment — the largest component of the basket at just over 40% — which softened to 5.8% y-o-y compared to 6.05% in August. September’s housing inflation reading is the lowest since May 2023, and follows on from a gradual slowdown that started earlier this year.

…and is signaling a longer term downtrend: “Base effects, a moderation in the market, and an uptick in supply will all likely contribute to an ongoing slowdown in housing costs, helping soften the headline rate,” Emirates NBD said in a research note (pdf).

Other categories seeing inflation: Food and beverages which inched up 0.15% y-o-y during the month, after sitting in deflation territory (-0.37%) the prior month. Education also rose 2.49% y-o-y, while healthcare inflation sat at a constant 1.38% y-o-y for the third month in a row, and personal care and miscellaneous goods inflation came in at 1.03%. Tobacco posted one of the sharpest gains, rising 3.66% y-o-y but holding steady on a m-o-m basis.

Recreation, sport, and culture inflation jumped 4.15% y-o-y during September, after recording -1.76% a month earlier. Clothing and footwear prices accelerated to 1.0% y-o-y after easing to 0.39% in August. Inflation in the ins. and financial services segment also inched up to 1.13% after cooling to 0.85% the month before.

The deflation of transport prices continued, albeit at a much lower rate of 0.87% y-o-y during the month, after recording -3.49% in August. This was pushed primarily by retail petrol prices, with the liter of super 98 costing AED 2.70 in September, marking a 6.9% y-o-y decrease, compared with an 11.8% dip in August. For October, Emirates BND expects that “the transport component will likely be positive for the first time since July 2024,” as petrol prices are already up 4.1% y-o-y. However, the bank rules out October fuel price spike to persist through November and December, as “the steady production increases from OPEC+ has reaffirmed our expectation of softer oil prices through Q4, and our forecast average of USD 65.0/b would be significantly lower than the Q4 2024 average of USD 74.0/b.”

REMEMBER: The Fuel Price Committee increased prices for fuel and lowered diesel’s price for September. This month, fuel and diesel prices were hiked by up to 3%.

On a monthly basis, consumer prices edged up 0.44% in September, up from 0.11% in August, according to the statistics center’s monthly inflation report (pdf).

Looking ahead: Emirates NBD revised upward its forecast for average headline inflation through year-end to 2.6%, an increase by 0.1 percentage point from its previous forecast, as it believes that “transport is unlikely to exert a drag on prices in October.” Meanwhile, CI Capital estimates the full-year annual inflation to average 2.9%, helped by lower transportation costs, according to a note seen by EnterpriseAM. Annual inflation has averaged 2.7% over the first nine months of the year, down from 3.6% in the same period last year, CI Capital added. Emirates NBD sees inflation remaining in the range of 2.5% in 2026, as housing price pressures are predicted to cool further.

DP World enters into JV with Uzbekistan’s Tashkent City for a new logistics terminal

Tashkent taps DP World for a new logistics terminal: UAE port operator DP World has formed a JV — DP World Tashkent — with Uzbekistan’s Tashkent City Administration subsidiary Tashkent Invest to establish a multimodal logistics terminal in Tashkent City, according to a statement. The project, situated in the Yangi Avlod Special Industrial Zone, is earmarked for a total investment of over USD 288 mn — set to be dispersed across three phases.

A long-time coming: DP World CEO Sultan Ahmed bin Sulayem inked an MoU with officials from Uzbekistan to develop freezones and logistics centers in the country back in September 2024.

Who’s doing what? DP World will hold 85% of the JV equity capital, while Tashkent Invest will contribute with the remaining 15%. The project is earmarked for a total investment of over USD 288 mn — set to be dispersed across three phases.

First things first: The first phase will see the development of a 150k TEU per year rail terminal and 63k sqm warehouse complex by the end of the FY 2026-27. An additional 163k sqm in warehousing capacity will be set up in subsequent phases on the basis of demand.

What else is in store? The Tashkent Multimodal Logistics Terminal is scheduled to span over some 82 hectares in the zone. Once fully up and running, it will include a variety of logistics solutions, featuring a rail connected dry port for containers and covered cargo, customs clearance zones, vehicle storage zones, truck parking, cross-docking facilities, and Grade A warehouses. The terminal is set to operate as a vital link between the region, Central Asia, and Europe.

AD Ports also had its eyes on the terminal: AD Ports was reportedly in talks with Uzbekistan to establish a logistics center in the Tashkent region. The port operator founded a JV in 2023 with SEG Enera Group, focused on building dry ports and container yards, and specializes in engineering logistics services, multimodal transportation, warehouses, and customs clearance.

Supporting UAE + Central Asia trade links: UAE and Uzbekistan inked at least 15 investment agreements and contracts, covering the logistics, transportation, energy, infrastructure, healthcare, and agricultural sectors, earlier this year. AD Ports Group also partnered with Kazakhstan Railway’s freight arm KTZ Express to launch its new Central Asian logistics joint venture (JV) in July.

IN OTHER LOGISTICS NEWS-

Gulftainer launches landbridge operation in Khorfakkan: Sharjah-based Gulftainer has introduced a new logistics solution, Landbridge, in Khorfakkan Commercial Terminal (KCT) — slated to streamline the movement of cargo between the UAE and the wider GCC, specifically Kuwait, Qatar, and Saudi Arabia, according to a statement released on Friday. The landbridge offers greater connectivity to domestic and regional markets — boasting a fleet of over 300 trailers and round-the-clock operations. Under the new solution, customers will be able to accelerate the movement of cargo due to increased visibility and control with real-time tracking.

SOUND SMART- A landbridge is an intermodal transportation method that involves the movement of cargo via a combination of land, rail, and maritime corridors domestically, internationally, or across continents.

Saudi has one in the works: A USD 7 bn landbridge project is slated for completion by 2030 in Saudi Arabia. The landbridge will connect the Kingdom’s Red Sea coast to the Arabian Gulf and includes the development of six railway lines and seven logistics centers.

Ewec awards 1.5 GW Khazna solar project to Engie, Masdar

Abu Dhabi-based Emirates Water and Electricity Company (Ewec) awarded the 1.5 GW Khazna Solar PV Independent Power Project to France’s Engie and Masdar, which will act as a local shareholder, according to a press release. The project is expected to reach financial close by the end of 4Q 2025 and become operational by 2026 or 2027.

Ewec signed a power purchase agreement with the consortium, structured as an energy purchase agreement, under which Ewec will pay only for the net power generated by the plant. Engie and Masdar will be responsible for designing, financing, building, and operating the facility.

Advanced tech on the table: The project will deploy IoT-enabled sensors, cloud-based monitoring, big data analytics, and robotic cleaning systems to optimize output and reduce maintenance costs.

Engie’s consortium offered the lowest levelized cost of electricity bid for the project at USD 0.0149/kWh, some 3% lower than China’s Jinko Power and Japan’s Jera’s USD 0.0151/kWh, according to Meed. Korea Western Power (Kowepco) and EDF’s bid was the highest at USD 0.0159/kWh.

REMEMBER- Ewec received three proposals to set up the 1.5 GW IPP in October last year and signed a joint development agreement with Kowepco and EDF Renewables last March.

Taaleem sees bottom line rise for FY2024-25 amid expansion drive

Education provider Taaleem reported a 19.2% y-o-y rise in net income to AED 164.5 mn in FY 2024-25, supported by higher enrollments and recent acquisitions, according to its financials (pdf) and earnings release (pdf). Operating revenue grew 20.1% y-o-y to AED 1.1 bn for the year.

The increase was driven by a 19.3% rise in premium school enrolment and expanded capacity following the launch of Dubai British School Jumeira and the acquisition of Lycée Libanais Francophone Privé Meydan. The company’s total student base rose to 41.4k across 38 schools, including 12 premium and 26 public-private partnership campuses. Premium school capacity climbed 28% y-o-y, while utilization eased to 75% amid new openings.

REMEMBER- Taaleem also consolidated a 95% stake in Kids First Group, a network of 34 nurseries in the UAE and Qatar, marking its entry into the early childhood segment. The company secured AED 968 mn in financing to support the acquisition and fund construction of a new Harrow International School campus.

Looking ahead, Taaleem plans to further expand its footprint with Harrow International campuses in Dubai and Abu Dhabi, both slated to open in 2026. The group also agreed to acquire land for a new school in Majid Al Futtaim’s AED 15.4 bn Ghaf Woods development in Dubai — a 23k sqm campus set to accommodate up to 1.8k students.

More trouble for Eshraq as Goldilocks loses value

BUSINESS-

Eshraq warns of 3Q hit as Goldilocks drops AED 75 mn in value: Real estate investment firm Eshraq Investments said the net asset value of its majority-owned Goldilocks Investment Co fell by around AED 75 mn during FY 2024-25, according to a disclosure (pdf) to the ADX. A financial hit from a revised position on the amount owed in taxes was to blame for the downward valuation, the disclosure read. Eshraq added the drop is set to weigh down its 3Q financials and is considering bringing in an independent body to assess the extent of the damage. The firm stressed that it doesn’t manage the fund and is not responsible for its operations.

ICYMI- Last week Eshraq said its request to redeem its shares in Goldilocks was refused after its investment manager told Eshraq that a “significant number” of the shares were pledged as security to a local bank back in 2019. The pledge was made as security for a facility worth around AED 208 mn, predating Eshraq’s 2022 acquisition.

The development followed months of tension with Shuaa GMC, the former manager of Goldilocks, over asset valuation disputes that surfaced earlier this year. Eshraq saw its chairman and CEO both step down recently.

And now? Eshraq said that it has lodged a formal complaint with authorities regarding the undisclosed pledge, and is reviewing legal and commercial avenues to protect shareholder interests.

PAYMENTS-

Fintech firm Verto expands into UAE, boosting MENA-Africa B2B payments: UK-based fintech firm Verto has launched operations in the UAE, looking to facilitate cross-border B2B payments between the Emirates and emerging markets, particularly Africa, according to a press release (pdf). The expansion targets trade corridors connecting the UAE with China, West Africa, Nigeria, Kenya, and South Africa.

Why Dubai? The firm sees the concentration of international firms operating in the emirate as positioning it as a key location to tap into the cross-border payments market, Verto’s UAE Country Manager Helen Ghebreluul told EnterpriseAM. Verto is seeing strong demand from the commodity, non-bank financial institutions, and engineering, procurement, and construction sectors, and is also looking to partner with local firms to further extend its offerings, Ghebreluul added.

More on Verto: The platform facilitates payments in several hours, and offers fixed foreign exchange rates that can be locked in, multi-currency accounts to hold funds in different denominations, and payment tracking. It is now licensed by the Dubai Financial Services Authority (DFSA) and is currently processing over USD 25 bn annually for firms including Maersk and Unilever.

du, Network International partner on digital payments for SMEs: Telco du signed an MoU with Dubai-based payments provider Network International to develop integrated digital payment solutions bundled with telecom services for startups and SMEs, according to a press release. The platform will combine connectivity, payment processing, and point-of-sale tools into one system to simplify operations and reduce costs.

More to come: The partnership will also explore AI, blockchain, and real-time payment technologies to enhance security and efficiency.

REMEMBER- Earlier this month, Network International completed its merger with First Abu Dhabi Bank’s Magnati, forming a Brookfield-led fintech group operating in 56 markets. The combined entity provides digital payments, SME lending, and financial infrastructure services.

BANKING-

Invest Bank secures CBUAE license for Islamic banking window: The Central Bank of the UAE (CBUAE) granted Sharjah-based Invest Bank a license to operate an Islamic banking window, according to an ADX disclosure (pdf). With the new license, Invest Bank will be able to offer their Shariah-compliant financial products and solutions, with the new window integrating into the bank’s overall structure.

TRADE-

Abu Dhabi Customs inked two trade facilitation agreements in London, on the sidelines of the Abu Dhabi-London Business Connect Forum and the Abu Dhabi Investment Forum, according to statements here and here. The agreements were signed with European consultancies Maersk Global Trade & Customs Consulting and UK-based Competere Group, and aim to advance digital customs systems, border management, and trade facilitation.

The details: The agreement with Maersk focuses on developing next-generation customs modernization tools, including a trusted digital trade corridor and a compliance framework for brokers. The Competere partnership centers on data-driven economic models and advanced technology to streamline customs operations and improve Abu Dhabi’s trade competitiveness.

Dubai expands into Sweden with new Stockholm office: Dubai International Chamber launched a representative office in Stockholm, marking its first representative in the Nordic countries, Dubai Media Office reports.

IN CONTEXT- Non-oil bilateral trade between the two countries reached AED 3.9 bn in 2024, up 5.3% y-o-y. 1H 2025 saw 127 Swedish firms join the Dubai Chamber of Commerce, bringing the total to 940.

M&A-

ADQ’s Alpha Oryx shrunk its stake in Egypt’s CIB to 15.7%, down from 18.1%, according to an EGX disclosure (pdf). Alpha Oryx sold 73.5 mn shares of its stake in the country’s largest listed company by market cap in a block transaction valued at EGP 7.1 bn, at a price of EGP 96.50 per share.

Alpha Oryx will remain the lender’s largest shareholder even if it turns out one of the other shareholders was buying, with 7.4% owned by the National Organization for social ins., 6.3% owned by Fairfax Financial Holdings, and 68.2% in freefloat, according to the bank’s website.

EVs-

Self-driving trucks up and running in RAK: Ras Al Khaimah (Rak) Ceramics partnered with Dubai-based autonomous vehicle developer Evocargo self-driving electric trucks into the UAE’s industrial zone, Gulf Business reports. The trucks are now fully up and running as part of the firm’s logistics operations in Rak’s Al Jazeera Al Hamra industrial zone.

The details: The vehicles use light detection and ranging, sonars, and cameras to plug data into its onboard system that processes the information in real-time and adapts accordingly. They can detect road signs, passenger crossings, and general road infrastructure.

ICYMI- Autonomous taxis are also set to hit Ras Al Khamiah’s roads soon after its tourism authority signed an MoU with local developer Marjan on autonomous vehicle trials and smart transport integration, as well as with China-headquartered WeRide to launch self-driving buses and taxis. Autonomous transport is all the rage in larger emirates also, with Dubai’s Roads and Transport Authority (RTA) approving a regulatory framework for autonomous heavy vehicles and Abu Dhabi launching its pilot program for autonomous delivery vehicles.

HEALTHCARE-

Dubai Healthcare City kicks off AED 1.3 bn development plan: Dubai Healthcare City Authority (DHCA) is launching a development plan worth AED 1.3 bn in a bid to position the emirate as a hub for healthcare investment, state news agency Wam reports. DHCA is the governing body of the Dubai Healthcare City (DHCC) freezone.

Phase 1: The first phase of the plan will see the authority build flagship developments including a 13k sqm building with office and commercial spaces, and a 5.8k sqm medical complex with laboratories, outpatient and surgical facilities, and medical offices.

CHEMICALS-

Go Energy to develop green hydrogen project in Saudi Arabia: Umm Al Quwain-based Go Energy signed a non-binding MoU with Saudi Arabia Refineries Company to jointly study and develop a green hydrogen (ammonia) project in Saudi Arabia, according to a Tadawul filing. Effective since 11 October and valid for one year, the agreement will also see the two establish a legal framework for the partnership. No financial details have been disclosed yet.

AVIATION-

Etihad Airways will launch flights to Kabul this December: Etihad Airways will begin running flights between Abu Dhabi and Kabul in Afghanistan from 18 December, according to a press release. The airline will run three flights a week on the route, serviced by Etihad’s A320 aircraft.

ICYMI- Just last month Etihad said it was launching flights to Damascus, starting from next summer. The move to add Syria back into its international network comes as the airline targets 38 mn annual passengers by 2030.

US deregulation could free up USD 2.6 tn in lending capacity for its banks

US banks are poised for a sweeping relaxation of capital regulations that could unlock USD 2.6 tn in lending capacity, the Financial Times reports, citing an Alvarez & Marsal report. The consultancy estimates the move will free up USD 140 bn in capital for Wall Street lenders, marking a significant shift toward deregulation under President Donald Trump’s administration.

What to expect: The push to ease banking rules — led by Federal Reserve vice-chair Michelle Bowman — will include reducing requirements for high-quality capital, adjusting extra buffers for major banks, and overhauling annual stress tests. Alvarez & Marsal forecasts these changes to cut common equity tier one requirements by 14%, which could boost earnings per share by 35%.

The rationale: Washington’s renewed bank-friendly stance reverses many of the post-2008 crisis safeguards. The loosening of rules aims to strengthen large US banks, enabling them to redirect lending capacity toward sectors driving the US investment boom, such as AI, data centers, and energy infrastructure, while returning more capital to shareholders, Oliver Wyman’s Huw van Steenis told the FT.

The overhaul is a significant reversal for major banks, which had been facing a proposed 19% hike in 2023 under the “Basel Endgame” rules drafted during the Biden administration, Reuters reports. That plan, which had sparked unprecedented pushback from Wall Street, was never finalized and was abandoned following President Donald Trump’s election.

JPMorgan leads the pack: JPMorgan Chase is set to gain the most from the rule changes, with USD 39 bn in freed-up capital. Its earnings per share could rise by 31%, while return on equity may increase by 7%, according to the report.

Not everyone is following suit: While the UK is expected to reduce its bank capital requirements by 8%, the EU and Switzerland are moving to tighten regulations. EU banks could see a 1% increase in capital requirements, and Swiss banks up to 33% — potentially forcing UBS to raise as much as USD 26 bn after its Credit Suisse rescue. This split will “drive a further market share gain by US banks and the UK will just about hold its market share, while the Swiss and the EU banks will lose more ground,” Alvarez & Marsal’s Fernando de la Mora told the FT.

MARKETS THIS MORNING-

Flaring trade tensions between the US and China are weighing down Asian markets this morning, with Hong Kong’s Hang Seng down 2.2%, the Shanghai Composite down 1.2%, and Japan’s Nikkei down 1%. Meanwhile, Wall Street futures are in the green, recovering after Trump signaled on social media he might not follow through with China tariff threats.

ADX	10,114	-0.3% (YTD: +7.4%)
DFM	5,982	+0.4% (YTD: +15.9%)
Nasdaq Dubai UAE20	4,853	-0.4% (YTD: +16.5%)
USD : AED CBUAE	Buy 3.67	Sell 3.67
EIBOR	4.0% o/n	3.9% 1 yr
TASI	11,494	-0.8% (YTD: -4.5%)
EGX30	37,379	0.0% (YTD: +25.7%)
S&P 500	6,553	-2.7% (YTD: +11.4%)
FTSE 100	9,427	-0.9% (YTD: +15.4%)
Euro Stoxx 50	5,531	-1.7% (YTD: +13.0%)
Brent crude	USD 62.73	-3.8%
Natural gas (Nymex)	USD 3.11	-5.0%
Gold	USD 4,000	+0.7%
BTC	USD 114,973	+3.7% (YTD: +22.9%)
Chimera JP Morgan UAE Bond UCITS ETF	AED 3.72	-1.3% (YTD: +6.8%)
S&P MENA Bond & Sukuk	150.97	+0.2% (YTD: +7.9%)
VIX (Volatility Index)	21.66	+31.8% (YTD: +24.8%)

THE CLOSING BELL-

The ADX fell 0.3% on Friday on turnover of AED 746.9 mn. The index is up 7.4% YTD.

In the green: National Bank of Umm Al Qaiwain (+5.5%), Burjeel Holdings (+3.1%) and Al Wathba National Ins. Co. (+3.0%).

In the red: Sharjah Cement and Industrial Development Co. (-2.4%), Abu Dhabi Commercial Bank (-1.5%) and Abu Dhabi Ports Company (-1.5%).

Over on the DFM, the index rose 0.4% on turnover of AED 271.3 mn. Meanwhile, Nasdaq Dubai was down 0.4%.

CALENDAR

OCTOBER

9-15 October (Thursday-Wednesday): IUCN World Conservation Congress, Abu Dhabi.

12-15 October (Sunday-Wednesday): Expand North Star, Dubai Harbor.

13-17 October (Monday-Friday): GITEX Global, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai

14-16 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Global Future Councils, Dubai.

15 October (Wednesday): Alec Holding’s shares to begin trading on the DFM.

15-18 October (Wednesday-Saturday): The Future Mobility Expo and Conference, Expo Center Sharjah.

15-18 October (Wednesday-Saturday): Evolve Future Mobility Show, Expo Center Sharjah.

21-22 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): HR Summit and Expo, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai

21-23 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Global Food Week, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi

21-23 October (Tuesday-Thursday): International Family Med. Conference and Exhibition, Dubai World Trade Center.

21-23 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Annual Radiology Meeting (ARM), Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai

21-23 October (Tuesday-Thursday): Healthcare Future Summit, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai

22 October (Wednesday): Reuters NEXT Gulf Summit, The St. Regis Saadiyat Island Resort, Abu Dhabi.

22-23 October (Wednesday-Thursday): Alternative Investment Summit, Jumeirah Emirates Towers, Dubai.

22-24 October (Wednesday-Friday): World Investment Conference, Expo Center Sharjah.

23 October (Thursday): S&P Global’s annual Islamic Finance Conference, DIFC Atrium, Dubai.

27 October (Monday): The UAE Africa Tourism Investment Summit, Dubai.

27-29 October (Monday-Wednesday): Future Hospitality Summit, Madinat Jumeirah, Dubai.

27-29 October (Monday-Wednesday): Asia Pacific Cities Summit, Dubai Exhibition Center.

28-29 October (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

29 October (Wednesday): The Brand Residences Forum, Dubai.

NOVEMBER

1-2 November (Saturday-Sunday): Women's Empowerment Convention (WE Convention), Atlantis The Royal, Dubai.

4-6 November (Tuesday-Thursday): Annual government meetings, Abu Dhabi.

4-6 November (Tuesday-Thursday): ARABAL International Aluminum Conference, Dubai

4-9 November (Tuesday-Saturday): Dubai Design Week, Dubai.

10-15 November (Monday-Saturday): SASC organizes Abu Dhabi Autonomous Week, Abu Dhabi.

10-15 November (Monday-Saturday): RoboCup Asia-Pacific (RCAP), Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

10 November (Monday): SASC organizes The Abu Dhabi Autonomous Summit, Abu Dhabi

11-17 November (Tuesday-Monday): International Council of Museums (ICOM) General Conference, Dubai.

12 November (Wednesday): Dubai Business Forum, Cipriani South Street, New York City.

12-17 November (Wednesday-Monday): RoboCup Asia-Pacific, Khalifa University, Abu Dhabi.

13-15 November (Thursday-Saturday): International Financial Markets (ICA) Conference and Exhibition, Conrad Dubai.

15-17 November (Saturday-Monday): Myplant & Garden Middle East Green Expo, Dubai Exhibition Center, Expo City.

17-21 November (Monday-Friday): Dubai Airshow, Al Maktoum International Airport, Dubai.

18-19 November (Tuesday-Wednesday): Dubai Future Forum, Museum of the Future, Dubai.

19-20 November (Wednesday-Thursday): Investment and Business Summit, Al Hamra International Exhibition and Convention Center, Ras Al Khaimah

19-23 November (Tuesday-Sunday): Abu Dhabi Art, Manarat Al Saadiyat, Abu Dhabi

24-27 November (Monday-Thursday): Big 5 Global Exhibition, Dubai World Trade Center, Dubai

26 November (Wednesday): DFSA–HKMA Joint Climate Finance Conference, Dubai

26-27 November (Wednesday-Thursday): DATE (Digital Acceleration and Transformation Expo), Dubai

DECEMBER

1-3 December (Monday-Wednesday): Eid Al Etihad (UAE National Day).

2-5 December (Tuesday-Friday): Sotheby’s Abu Dhabi Collectors’ Week, Abu Dhabi.

1-5 December (Monday-Friday): The World Congress of Neurosurgery, Dubai World Trade Center.

7-14 December (Sunday-Sunday): Asian Youth Para Games, APC headquarters, Dubai.

8 December (Monday): DeFi Technologies Insights Global Symposium, Emirates Palace, Abu Dhabi.

8-9 December (Monday-Tuesday): BTC MENA Conference, Adnec, Abu Dhabi.

8-9 December (Monday-Tuesday): Global AI Show, Abu Dhabi.

8-10 December (Monday-Wednesday): The Bridge Summit, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

8-11 December (Monday-Thursday): Abu Dhabi Finance Week, Al Maryah Island.

9-10 December (Tuesday-Wednesday): US Federal Reserve’s Federal Open Market Committee meeting.

9-11 December (Tuesday-Thursday): Automechanika Dubai Trade Show, Dubai World Trade Center.

13-15 December (Saturday-Monday): Mobile Developers Week, Abu Dhabi.

18-23 December (Thursday-Tuesday): Games of the Future, Adnec, Abu Dhabi.

29-30 December (Monday-Tuesday): World Sports Summit, Dubai.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2025:

e& will complete Adnoc’s private 5G network
Executive Committee Meeting (EXCOM) conference of the World Smart Sustainable Cities Organisation (WeGO)

Signposted to happen sometime in 2H 2025:

Closing of XRG's acquisition of Covestro

JANUARY 2026

1 January: Client asset regime changes in Dubai International Financial Center take effect.

9-11 January (Friday-Sunday): 1 Bn Followers Summit, UAE.

13-15 January (Tuesday-Thursday): FESPA Middle East, Dubai Exhibition Center, Dubai

28-29 January (Wednesday-Thursday): IBA Arbitration Day Conference, Abu Dhabi.

28-30 January (Wednesday-Friday): World Customs Organization Technology Conference, Adnec Center, Abu Dhabi.

FEBRUARY 2026

3-5 February (Tuesday-Thursday): The World Governments Summit.

12-15 February (Thursday-Sunday): The Society for Incentive Travel Excellence Global Conference, Abu Dhabi.

9-13 February (Monday-Friday): The World Health Expo (WHX), Dubai.

MARCH 2026

31 March - 2 April (Tuesday-Thursday): Arab Media Summit, Dubai.

26-28 March (Thursday-Saturday): Social Capital Conference, Dubai.

APRIL 2026

13-15 April (Monday-Wednesday): AIM Congress, Dubai World Trade Center.

JUNE 2026

15 June-15 September (Monday-Thursday): Dubai Mallathon, Dubai.

JULY 2026

31 July (Friday): Large businesses achieving annual revenues equal to or above AED 50 mn must appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.

Signposted to happen in 2026:

13-15 April (Monday-Wednesday): The International Glass Manufacturing Show, Dubai.
14-16 April: (Tuesday-Thursday): the International Property Show, Sheikh Zayed Rd, Dubai.
11-13 May (Monday-Wednesday): AI Everything Global, Adnec Center.
The UAE to host the Arab Competition Forum
Dubai to host the Arab Actuarial Conference
United Nations Water Conference
Dubai Future Finance Week
Investopia Global Talks, Tashkent

Signposted to happen sometime in October 2026:

Abu Dhabi Space Week, Abu Dhabi.

Signposted to happen sometime in 2027:

1 January: Deadline for large businesses to implement e-invoicing.
1Q 2027: Completion of the first phase of Hassyan seawater desalination project.
31 March: Small businesses with annual revenues of less than AED 50 mn are obliged to contract with an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation
31 March: Government entities are required to appoint an accredited service provider for e-invoicing implementation.
1 July: Deadline for small businesses to implement e-invoicing.
1 October: Deadline for governments to implement e-invoicing.
Abu Dhabi’s solar and battery energy facility, combining 5.2 GW of solar capacity and 19 GWh of battery storage, is set for commissioning.

Signposted to happen sometime between 2027 and 2029:

Sibos 2029 organized by the Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication (SWIFT), Dubai.
The commissioning of the seventh phase of Mohammed bin Rashid Al Maktoum Solar Park.

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